a changing Democratic majority?

If the Democrats re-gain control of the House, which pundits and prognosticators say they will, it will do so without the old Confederacy as a base of support. This is a big deal, and signifies a shift in the politics of the South and the Northeast.

But it doesn't necessarily mean that the Democratic Party itself will become more Liberal. Many of the new seats to be gained are by definition in Republican held areas. Sure, some are in blue states or areas Kerry or Gore won, but a majority will only come from Republican areas (that is, Bush districts and some in Bush states).

For example, Indiana seems to be fruitfull territory this year for House seats. But Indiana has supported Republicans for President for decades, and they just elected a Republican Governor. Granted, the Republican Governor's unpopular decisions are part of the reason Democrats look good in that state this year, but these candidates are not liberals by any means.

There will be a lot more new Melissa Beans in Congress on January 2007 than there will be Chris Van Hollen's because of where Democrats will be sucessful. To me, it looks like Connecticut will not be a good state this year. All of the GOP incumbents knew it was going to be a tough year, and were prepared. Some may still lose, but I doubt all of them will. And Joe Lieberman's continued presence really hurts Democratic challengers, as Joe's quasi-Republicanism becomes more pronounced with each day.

Upstate New York will yield a few, but again these are in conservative areas...even if Clinton will carry them twice and Spitzer will run circles around the GOP. The region still elects GOP state Senators and voted for Bush in 2004. Ohio's gains will come from very GOP regions, as will any California gains (1-2 might materialize).

By contrast, Penn. will be a good state for Democrats this year, so more progressive Dems will come from there. There are a handful of seats that if they flip will like Chis Van Hollen's stay flipped: Northrup's in KY, almost all of the CT districts, the Philly burbs, Wilson's in NM...but the rest of the gains will be challenged very hard in 2008, when turn out will be higher and the GOP will have NOTBush as their presidential candidate (most likely McCain). So all of the class of 2006 will play it safe and not vote especially liberal on social isssues (save stem cells).

The same story will be true for the Senate as well. A Senator Ford, Webb, McCaskill, Casey, and probabbly Tester would vote fairly moderately and make pains to disagree with their liberal collegues when possible.

Bottom line: the New Democrat caucus in both the House and the Senate will not die out. While the Democratic majority will not be beholden to the South in the House, it will in the Senate. But again, either way, there will be more moderates in both chambers after 2006, not less. This will not make the would be Democratic majorities more liberal. If anything, House Democrats as a whole will be less liberal.

on air?

I got interviewed this afternoon for KSL nightside on the topic of bloggers and libel suits. (Thanks Ethan!) Maybe I was too boring or maybe I convinced them that libel is not as much of a worry as disclosing priviledged or secret information is...but it looks like it won't air anytime soon.

I talked about my legal and ethical obligations to make sure that I don't prejudice potential jurors on criminal cases, or spill the beans on inside information for legislative or executive process.

If Chris Buttars or LaVar Christensen or Chris Cannon or Joe Cannon or any other local political figure that has made an a$$ of themselves by saying dumb things, doing dumb things, or being hypocritical, I welcome their lawsuit. Besides being a lawyer in training, I know lots of lawyers and I am sure I could find a libel/first amendment lawyer willing to go to bat for blogger's rights to call a spade a spade.

I can only dream of getting hit with a lawsuit...my blog's hits would go through the roof and my legal career would be cemented after I helped beat the pants off one of those clowns. To quote George W. Bush, "Bring it on."

relative holidays

Today is Columbus Day. In Boston, this makes for a large parade and everything being closed. In Utah, the post office, courts, and other annoyances are closed.

On Pioneer Day, Utah shuts down, but everyone else in the country is wondering why Utahns won't pick up the phone. Minor holidays will do that. Even though Columbus and Martin Luther King day are federal holidays, you can't force places besides federal offices to take the day off. There needs to be a cultural support for the holiday.

If only we could make Election Day one of those super federal holidays, like the 4th of July. Would some people make it into a long weekend? Sure, but others would be happy to vote without the stress of worrying about getting back to work. Both party's GOTV operation would be so much easier. The poor would be more likely to vote.

If we really value democracy and the people as much as we say we do, we would make it a holiday too. and if this polling holds up, it looks like it will be Christmas for Democrats in November.

In 1994, Speaker Foley lost his seat. This was seen as emblematic of the catostrophic losses the Democrats faced. In 2006, it looks like it will be NRCC chair Tom Reynolds turn. He is down 15% after this Foley scandal broke. And I am almost 100% that Hastert won't be around next year either. He will resign after losing the Speaker's spot, either by losing control of the House or in falling on the sword after a narrow victory.

Earth to LaVar: you've lost already

LaVar Christensen believes that he can make the pitch that if Matheson wins reelection, Pelosi will be Speaker and the Democrats will legislate immorality...Even after Rep. Mark Foley's scandal continues to break.

Christensen's ad says: "Political experts are reporting that for the first time in 12 years, Democrats in Washington have a strong chance of winning enough seats in the coming election to take control of Congress.
"What will that mean for you, for Utah and America? ...
"It will mean increased dependence on foreign oil, rising gas prices and falling moral standards."

This is what he means by 'America needs Utah.' Utah needs to save America from itself because somehow more people will have abortions with a Democratically controlled House. Even though in this same America (I haven't seen polling in Utah on it), a majority/plurality of Americans trust Democrats over Republicans in EVERY area...including moral values. And having Chris Cannon blame Mark Foley's lust for underage boys on the boys themselves isn't going to help LaVar any.

The irony of blaming Democrats for any dropping moral standard "is self-evident on its face," said Matheson. "It is their (Republican) Party that's seen four different members resign" for questionable behavior "in just this term of Congress."
...
"Democrats are the ones who embrace abortion and same-sex marriage," he [LaVar] says.
"Massachusetts has chosen to accept (Rep.) Barney Frank and what he does. But in Utah that is not our standard. Why should Utah contribute to the taking over of Congress by the Democrats?" said Christensen. Frank has openly declared that he is gay.

Somehow with Mark Foley, Iraq, Abramoff, the economy, health care costs, and all the rest, that the imaginary specter of gay marriage and abortion is going to do it. Let's face facts, Utah is never going to allow gay marriage unless some future Supreme Court forces it to. Ditto for loosening some of the tightest abortion regulations in the country. So anything a Democratic Congress might do will have no effect on Utahns.

Meanwhile, the NRCC hasn't given Utah's second district a dime of their money. LaVar claims it is because his campaign is doing so well that he hasn't bothered to ask for money. Riiiight. Matheson has AT LEAST twice as much money has you, and is up over 20 points in the polls, but you are doing great. Reality check from soon to be ex-Gov. Mitt Romney's presidential campaign advisor Kirk Jowers:

The party's unwillingness to put money in the 2nd District "is one of the big signs that they don't consider it a competitive race."
"It's essentially the party throwing up the white flag that they know this is over for this seat" and is now focusing its finances on defending one of the multitude of vulnerable Republicans in other states, Jowers said.
Matheson, however, isn't counting the national party out, yet.
"There's no guarantee they won't come in. There's five weeks to go. I can't assume it's not going to happen. It's happened every other year."

Matheson is smart not to assume the best is going to happen and to campaign aggressively. Better to run up the score and really ensure that he will never get challenged seriously again then kick back and let it get close.

We have yet to see the third quarter numbers for this race, but I doubt there is much in LaVar's account other than his $650k. Jim probably has 1.5-2M, and has yet to spend any serious money yet. The good news for Utahns is that the only negative ads you will see will be from the candidates themselves, and most if not all will be from LaVar. Jim has no need to go negative or even acknowledge that LaVar exists.

Friday thoughts

Sometimes, my post contain multiple topics and ideas, and while they seem to all interrelate with tidy transitions to me, most see them as disjointed. So today, I will just do bullets my disconnected thoughts:

• This last week is probably the first time anyone other than Illinios voters and political junkies have even heard of Speaker Hastert. And their first impression: a guy who would rather keep a seat safe and save a couple million than protect teenagers from a known sexual predator.
  Hastert has become radioactive: no one wants him to raise money for them, let alone campaign with them. It is only a manner of time before he loses his job, either after or before November.


• Lohra Miller's "ask a cop" slogan referrs to the fact that the policeman's union of SLC and SL Co. Sheriff's union have endorced her. Why not just "say endorsed by county and SLC police officers?" Instead, people have defaced signs by mocking the slogan. i have seen the word "ask" struck through with and replaced with "kill" (which is terrible and I condone). Another has "Don't" inserted before "ask." Stupid slogan, if she just kept it simple with her "justice first" and a "endorsed" one would be better. "Ask a cop" requires the voter to do the work, and they won't.
  
  "Justice first" I found out, does refer to her critics of the DA's office, most of which are based on her lack of understanding or willful ignorance of the system.
  Her point that over 70% of sex crimes cases are dismissed when the defendant pleads guilty overlooks the fact that many times victims are unwilling to testify and sex cases tend to get weaker as time goes by: couples get back together, people forget details, stuff gets lost/destroyed, people move away, etc. The felony DUI cases dismissal rate is high because a felony DUI needs two certified DUI convictions within the last 10 years. These are often hard to obtain. Case numbers are misentered into the RAP sheet, files are archived or destoryed within a few years. Often, this means that a felony DUI charge is dismissed, and refiled as a misdemeanor DUI. So the notion that 20% of DUIs go away completely is eroneous.
  
  As to her charge that politics comes first, I haven't seen that personally.

Page-gate: how to handle it

This all could have blown over in 2005 and gotten rolled into a news dump on Katrina. Rep. Foley could have been pushed to not run for reelection, and the GOP could have kept his money (all $2.7M of it) and had time to find a decent replacement. The might have lost the seat, anyway, but at least they would have a fighting chance.

But once the news came out, the last thing the GOP leadership should have done was each talk about it separately and point the blame. With each telling differing stories and blaming each other, voters begin to think, "well one of them is lying, let's throw them all out." Next time, hold a closed door caucus meeting and vote the dude out of caucus and then have him resign immediately afterwards.

Next, take some blame. Say "hindsight is 20/20, but we should have heeded the warnings signs." Fire the staffer who tried to shove it under the rug that day too. Offer to have a full investigation after the election by the ethics committee.

Offer bills to reform the page program so that members cannot get too close, since appearantly pages in the well of the House are like Cookies in a jar.

In fact, the handling looks so bad that I am beginning to think this a coup to chop off the head of the GOP House leadership. Rep. Blunt lost the Maj. Leader race, and with Boehner, Hastart, and Reynolds all implicated in this scandal, he could become speaker/min. leader. Blunt could blame the loss of control on those guys, and cruise up the leadership ladder. And if the Dems win is very narrow, and 2008 is a big GOP year, his 4 year plan for the Speakership is done.

Or this could be a plan to purify the GOP by arch conservatives, social and economic. There is a list of Gay GOP staffers going around, ripe for posting on the internet and blacklisting. Some religious conservatives are blaming Foley's behavior oh his homosexuality. You don't see Barney Frank propositioning pages though. The current GOP in the House spend like drunken sailors with wads of cash, lust for power like they lust for pages and mistresses. The fist rots at the head as they say, and boy does that fish stink.

SLCo DA neck and neck

This race interests me because I will in all likelihood be applying for a position with the District Attorney about a year from now. And right now, my would be boss is unknown.



Another interesting finding is that

Gill has a lot more money in his war chest to get him through the last month of the election. According to recent financial reports filed with the county, Gill has approximately $30,099 left in his campaign fund, while Miller has $1,699.
Throughout the campaign, Miller has raised $94,338, while Gill has total contributions of $116,613.
Other races for Salt Lake County elected positions aren't nearly as close, with incumbents holding commanding leads, according to the poll.

By commanding they mean 60-40 races.
So with Gill's money edge, slight polling (within the margin of error) edge, and slightly superior billboards, it will all come down to turn out. Will Jim's massive cash edge and GOTV machine help Sim? Will it be a Democratic year in Utah too? These questions will all soon be answered in a month's time.

I love elections, as Herold Ford said, it's like Christmas. Except the day after Christmas has never been depressing for me.

Quote of the Day

"It’s hard for Americans, all of us, including me, to understand what’s wrong with these people,... Why do they hate each other? Why do Sunnis kill Shiites? How do they tell the difference? They all look the same to me." fmr. Maj. Leader Trent Lott (R-MS)

Remember these is representative of Republican leadership.

Sensenbrenner demands UT re-redistricting

Lame duck House Judiciary chairman Sensenbrenner, the author of the immigration bill that caused mass protests in the spring, now demands that Utah's legislature go into special session to approve the four-district map Huntsman proposed.

...Sensenbrenner, R-Wisc., says he won't allow a full hearing on a bill to give Utah a fourth seat and the District of Columbia its first vote in Congress until Utah lawmakers have a 'final Utah redistricting plan,'

This plan would make the second district a safe seat for Democrats, signaling the state GOP has given up beating Jim Matheson.

It looks like this will happen, with absolutely no input from Democrats on Salt Lake's Capitol Hill. "The governor is willing to call a special session, if appropriate,” said spokesman Mike Mower.

What Republicans don't understand is that this scheme may net two Democratic seats: one from D.C. (who really deserve representation anyway) and one more from Utah (assuming Jim runs in the new 4th or new 3rd and a decent [aka not Rocky] Democrat runs in the new 2nd). Hopefully, no one powerful in Utah or D.C. reads this blog.

Photo of the day

Your liberal media at work:

hattip: Rising Hegemon
The U.S. media is still fearful of the right wing noise machine (RWNM), so afraid of reporting the truth because when they do, the RWNM screams "liberal."

American media is anything but liberal. Individual journalists may be socially liberal, but the overal slant is risk-adverse against charges of liberal bias. So they go for celebrity or proxy celebrity. In this case, Annie Liebowitz, the photographer of the stars and most recently of Tom Cruise's baby. With all that is going on in the world, is that really the most important piece of news for the past week?

If you are going to do a proxy story on Tom Cruise's baby, why don't you contrast that with Brad Pitt's baby, and how the two stars decided to publicize their child's birth. Cruise gave an exclusive to some magazine and fancying photographer for millions. Pitt and Jolie had an auction for the photos to go to charity and also publicized a country at the same time. How many more teenybopers have now heard of Namibia that didn't even know it existed?

Why not do a story on how Bush is losing Afghanistan AND Iraq? That is big news for the U.S. and the world because it means terrorist may be at our collective doorsteps soon. It also means there will be one more failed state since 2001 than there was before. Iraq might have been ruled by an evil dictator, but it was under control.

mapmakers

Mapmaker, mapmaker, make me a map...
Draw it up so one party wins, forget those Constitutions...

OK so maybe I am making a terrible parody of "Matchmaker" from "Fiddler on the Roof," but I do have a point. Here it is:

Huntsman, House Speaker Greg Curtis and Senate President John Valentine - all Republicans - endorsed a map Wednesday for four congressional districts, in which Matheson would represent northern Salt Lake County and Summit and Morgan counties.

Even in that super GOP year of 2002, Jim got 60% from his portion of Salt Lake County. By "Northern Salt Lake County" they probably mean: Rose Park, West Valley, Magna, Salt Lake City, and a few others...in otherwords, the most Democratic parts of the state. Add to that Park City and Morgan country for fun and you have a super safe Democratic seat. I haven't checked, but I bet if you look at the Utah Democratic Party's 2001 redistricting plan, this district would look awefully similar. Jim proposed a more consolidated district based on areas of interest, not voting patterns in 2001.

Matheson's spokeswoman Alyson Heyrend refused Wednesday to comment on the new proposal.
"This is the governor's map, and the Republican leaders' map," Heyrend said. "They're going to have to answer questions about the map. It's not Matheson's map."
In a statement, Matheson said there was a compromise bill that took partisanship out of the formula, "until one member of Congress blocked the bill's progress. If it gets unstuck, I look forward to voting for it. But clearly, the ball is in the majority party's court."
Heyrend did say that Matheson will vote for the bill to give Utah a fourth seat - with or without the at-large provision - if it makes it to the House floor.

Good point Alyson. But I disagree with MD Rep. Steny Hoyer who thinks that having Congress drawing up their districts is a bad idea. Right now, they delegate that to their cronyies in their local state houses, while giving them input on what they actually want. What Congress should do, is set up minimal conditions for a fair district and then let localities decide. For example, they should be as compact as possible, using town/city and county lines, with "communities of interests" kept in mind.

That is, Utah could have one rural district, one district centered around Utah County/Southern SL County, one based around Davis/Weber/Morgan/Toole County, and one based around Salt Lake/Summitt County. This would help everyone, all districts would be 55-60% Republican, addressing the needs of the communities and not playing favorities or ignoring certain areas.

Will Utah get a 4th district? Maybe. Will this scheme be challenged in the courts? Probabbly if it passes. Will Jim happily take his safe seat, or mess up the GOPs plans and run in the 4th (with S. SL County, which loves him, and St. George which is starting to love him, and Iron County, his ancestral home)? I could really see Jim running in the 4th, winning and giving another Democrat (please no Rocky) a chance in the Democratic-leaning new 2nd.

35,000 hits

I know sites like DailyKos gets this many hits in a hour or so, but I just reached a milestone.

Thanks to the readers who have kept me in check.

Today I want to talk about Iraq. In northern Iraq, the Kurdish controlled areas have outlawed the Iraqi flag and only flag a flag of Iraqi Kurdistan. Something that I am sure Turkey just loves (they have Kurdish majorities in Eastern Turkey). Meanwhile, hundreds are being murdered every day in that country, and Bagdad is being walled off. The nominal head of Iraq is trying to get as tight with Shia-mullah controlled Iran.

So to recap, as a result of this war, we have created a civil war between Shia and Shi'ite with Kurds seeking their own country. This battered and divided country is now closely alligned with Iran, who is 5-10 years away from a nuclear weapon. Iran is now the new head of the middle east. Although Saudia Arabia has the money and Mecca, Iran leads the new ideological mindset of the Arab world.

We made one of our axis of evil more powerful (by assuming Iraq), as well as North Korea (by letting their nuclear program accellerate). We spent hundreds of billions of dollars and thousands of soldiers and tens of thousands of Iraqis lives.

Oh and the Taliban has regrouped and about to take back Afghanistan, Al Qaeda has grown more amorphous and harder to crush, bin Laden is still loose. And I got 35,000 hits.

How to win as a Democrat in Utah

Have Rocky critize you. SLC Mayor Ross Anderson is very unpopular and a boogy man to the right. It looks like Jim Matheson just lucked out. But SLCo. GOPers think this was coordinated:

"I think it's coordinated with Matheson's campaign. He's helping Matheson win re-election," Evans told a University of Utah communication class this week. "It's another cynical ploy. It's vintage Rocky. He operates like [he's playing a game] in three-dimensional chess."
Both Matheson and Anderson dispute the conspiracy theory.
"That's crazy talk," Matheson said.
And Anderson called Evans "paranoid and looney."
But Evans' comments reveal the political implications of the spat. Conventional wisdom would say that anything the mayor does or says boomerangs outside of Salt Lake City. If he advises "Don't vote for Matheson," conservative Utah voters might give the congressman a second look. Rather than pushing voters toward Brister, Anderson's criticism of his fellow Democrat could pull voters away from Republican candidate LaVar Christensen and guarantee a Matheson win.

I discussed earlier today how LaVar has terrible signs, and previously how he has no money. But now with Rocky out there doing the reverse physcology for Jim, it is all over.

The article claims that having Rocky go after a Democrat helps that Democrat with conservatives who lean GOP. But really, it helps them with Democrats too. Afterall, Rocky isn't running for reelection is he? And Jim's support amoung Democrats is around 90%.
Ex-SLC Mayor and father of 2007 candidate Jenny Wilson, Ted Wilson has a more apt analysis about what's going on:

"It is almost more about Rocky than it is about Jim," Wilson said. "Rocky's deepest conviction is that we're all too timid in what we say. There's a tendency in Rocky to say whatever's in his mind.
He's the most unfiltered political leader I've ever known."

I applaud Rocky for cutting the city's green house gas levels, and I like the public art around, but other than that, he has been a complete disaster.

I think Rocky has a future as a reverse lobbyist at the State Legislature. All he has to do is go up there and proudly support or oppose something...and watch the opposite happen. It is smart politics for any Democrat this year to pick a fight with Rocky. Smarter still to have Rocky pick a fight with you.

America needs better billboard slogans

Over the weekend I was running some errands and saw several poltical billboard for big candidates running this fall. I will tell you the slogans, then take them apart, and give my vote...but I would love to hear yours.

"America Needs Utah"
"Justice First"
"Experience Matters"
"The Real McCoy"

These are two Democrats, two Republicans, two terrible slogans and two not so bad ones.

St. Rep. LaVarr Christensen wins the prize for worst slogan: America Needs Utah. What does that mean? You are driving on the freeway or a state highway like 700 East and you see this sign, what are you supposed to think? He represents "Utah values" (aka LDS dogma)? Jim Matheson doesn't represent his state? I just don't understand what LaVarr is trying to get at. Moreover, the photo they chose is terrible...he looks like a cross between a horse and chipmunk. Grade: F-

Second to last place is St. Sen. Scott McCoy, or "the Gay" as Sen. Buttars calls him. His attempts at being clever fail miserably as cliched as they come. there was more to the slogan, but I can't even remember it...something like "people over politics" or something. And I am one of the most informed/interested voters in his district. That shows you something. He also gets a demotion for his campaign literature with the title "You've got issues." I really hope he didn't know they alternative meaning of that line. Grade: C--.

Attorney Loha Miller comes in second in a tight race for best slogan. The republican nominee for DA, Justice First is a pretty good slogan. But is that a subtle jab at the current DA, saying that politics comes first, or what? The reason she got second place was the "ask a cop" logo over a badge, in apparant reference to her endorsement to current SL Co. Sheriff Aaron Kennard [R](who is also up this year)...at least that is what I could come up with. What does ask a cop mean? Was she endorsed by a policeman union? If so, that would have been better than ask a cop. Every time I see her signs, I wonder what that means. Also, the colors are not compelling. Grade: B+

SLC Attorney Sim Gill wins for the best billboard. Sim's is simple: white background, read and blue letters. "Experience Matters" clearly says "i have relevant experience that my opponent doesn't have" which is true. Sim was an DDA here before he got ELECTED as the City Attorney, she contracts out misdemeanor cases for small municipalities within county limits. He has tried many more cases, more complex cases, than Loha. That complex message is boiled down to "experience matters" without losing much of the punch. Grade: A-

the taxman cometh

Despite the fact that enforcement budgets are down and Ohio churches helped orchestrate Bush's 2004 victory (and were not investigated), the IRS has taken upon itself to investigate the Democratic Leadership Council (DLC). From Forbes:

the Internal Revenue Service has revoked the DLC's tax exemption on the grounds that it primarily benefited a private group--Democrats, and particularly "New Democrats" running for or holding office--rather than the community at large. The DLC has sued in federal court to overturn the decision; the outcome could affect the spreading use (abuse?) of tax-exempts by politicians and those seeking to influence them. Convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff is just one character who has used money from tax-exempts to get the attention of legislators.

By that standard, there are many other tax exempt groups that should have their status revoked, namely GOP-leaning ones.

The DLC also points to other issue-flavored (c)(4)s--Empower America, the Log Cabin Republicans and the Republican Main Street Partnership--whose founders are identified with one party. And it says the Democrat-only workshops ate up less than 5% of a $4 million annual budget while 70% went for publications available to the public.

The DLC does not seek to elect or endorse candidates, it only trains candidates in messaging, invites them to conferences to meet other candidates and big donors, and writes stuff on what Democrats should do policy-wise. And liberals on the blogosphere doubt that Democrat part because some of the prominant senior DLC folks are supporting Joe Lieberman, who is no longer a Democrat.

When I was working there, my bosses said over and over again how careful we had to be about not sounding too political, because "we have gotten in trouble with the IRS before" what I didn't know is that

The IRS began auditing the DLC in 1999 and in 2002 revoked its exemption for 1997, 1998 and 1999 (all the years audited), hitting it with a $20,083 back tax bill.

And if you don't think this is a partisan, ideological thing, then why is the Justice Department hiring Nader-founded Public Citizen to defend the IRS from the DLC's suit?

If there is any group DLCer hate close to as much as Republicans, it is Naderites. And if there is anything I hate more than hypocrisy, it is when it comes with partisan goals attached...and when Forbes manages to squeeze as many Jack Abramoff references into a story that is about a Democratic group that seeks to be tax-free, even though Abramoff was a college Republican and never gave a dime to Democrats. Hell, he was wearing an elephant tie to his sentencing hearing.

And don't say moral equalavence to me, Abramoff used charities as shams-- funnellers of money from one group to the next politican's pocket. There is simply no comparison Steve Forbes. The DLC may be organized to help a particular political group become powerful, but what 501(c)(4) isn't?

the importance of political stunts

People these days seem to confuse political stunts with grandstanding. Grandstanding, for the most part is what politicians do when other politicians complain of "political stunts," like pulling out an obscure (to Bill Frist) Senate rule to halt the Senate and force WMD's to be discussed. Grandstanding is "performing ostentatiously so as to impress an audience." That is, being Senator Joe Biden, who gives lengthy lectures to judicial nominees from his seat at the Judiciary Committee.

Political stunts, however, are guerilla tactics to get free media to a candidate or incumbent. For example, Democratic Candidate for the US House from North Carolina Larry Kissel copied another Democratic Candidate from Kentucky for the US House (whose name escapes me) by offering constituents gas at pre-incumbent prices to make a point that gasoline has become much more expensive since Congressman X went to DC...why isn't he doing anything about it? the gimmick attracted local news stories, and more importantly, potential voters to the candidates name and message, however briefly.

More recently, MO Secretary of State and US Senate Candidate Claire McCaskill bought 100 St. Louis Rams tickets so as to avoid a TV blackout for fans who can't afford said tickets. She then was able to get on local TV, giving away the tickets to charities for needy children or something. For $44,000, she got lots of favorable press coverage, more name ID, and appreciative Rams fans who might vote for her because of it.

Kissell's gambit also cost a couple thousand dollars, but it was well worth it, just Google his name and gas and see how many local news stories you see.

The key is, if done correctly, a candidate can get a dirt cheep positive issue ad out. One that sends a message that "I care about things that matter to you, and Congressman/Senator X doesn't."

Closer to home, Jim Matheson does this by donating his pay raise to charity. It is only a few thousand dollars each time, but it generates national coverage. Every year, some editorial board mentions his name about how more members of Congress should be like Jim and forgo their auto COLA. Every year, Jim gets to pick a needy charity who benefits from the money, and the coverage.

When ever people complain about political stunts, see if it is really grandstanding (to Biden). If so, join the chorus. But if it is truly a political stunt, you know they are just jealous they didn't come up with it first.

where I was today

Although the criminal clinic officially started a couple weeks ago, for me it really started today. I skipped class and played prosecutor for the day, wearing a suit and tie...well my one and only suit with the only tie that matches it that I own.

Anyway, I got to argue the motions that I had written a couple weeks ago in front of a Justice Court judge, against a member of the bar with a real defendant sitting there, and I pretty much succeeded. The facts and the law were overwhelmingly on my side, so I am not here to boast.

In fact, the defense attorney did his best to obfuscate the issues at trial with other matters and a long windbag style that had me befuddled too. Why would 6 months of logs for a breathalyzer be necessary for his case if we gave him an affidavit that said it was checked prior to and after the breath test was conducted and the machine was functioning properly? Why would he need a 911 tape of a witness who said he saw the defendant driving drunk when we had the eyewitness present in the courtroom to testify and the tape had been destroyed per administrative procedure? Why on God's green Earth did it take nearly 3 hours to resolve those issues and the legality of a semi-standard stop and arrest?

He pulled out cases that had nothing to do with the matter and tried to connect them. He decided to whap down the print on the State's table as if that lent them more authority. It was exaspirating. And after all that, I discovered that one of my motions was not delivered to the other side, so the judge gave him time to respond to my response, and cut off my argument.

I am almost certain that his motion will fail, but it sure was frustrating. My supervising attorney told me that I had had enough for several trials and that I had earned my stripes today. So I returned home happy, tired, but annoyed.

How was your day?

where were you?

For my Parents generation, everyone knew where they were when they heard Kennedy was shot. They remember lots of trivial things about that moment that make it seem alive again. For my Grandparents, it was Pearl Harbor. But for my generation, it will be where you were when you heard that the twin towers had been struck by Al Qaeda (not Saddam, you crazy 30%).

I remember getting up at about 9 something (I didn't have class that day until 10:30), looking out the window into the clear blue sky and feeling a pleasantly warm breeze on my face. The feeling of happiness and calm passed over me. I thought "what a nice day." Boy was I wrong. I turned on my computer and chatted with a mutual friend of my now wife's and mine, and she told me what happened. She is a woman who subscribed to the New York Times as a student and prides herself on being well-informed. So I belived her, yet it seemed so fantastic. So I went into the common room and turned on the TV...and like election night 2000, our TV didn't turn off for days.

What dark days those were, with the anthrax scare that followed. Yet we all had hope, we saw people coming together to do brave and simple things for the good of all and felt the condolances from our allies. Five years later, we can see of far Bush has pissed it away. No one trusts the U.S. government at its word any more (save those 30%), we have more enemies, more trained people trying to kill our countrymen, and less places to travel without feeling disliked than ever before.

I get a bit choaked up when I think about those firefighters rushing up the stairs, the people who carried disabled co-workers down 90 plus flights, the passengers who charged United 93's cockpit...but then I get so angry when I think about all those who have died in Iraq for a war of choice that should have been much further down the priority list (behind Iran, N. Korea, Syria, and certainly Al Qaeda itself).

Please use the comments section to tell me where you were on that fateful Tuesday morning.

Huntsman sticks it to the poor, again

Hot off the heals of jamming through his two tiered (with a new flat tax) tax system for his wealthy collegues, Jon Jr. now cut hundreds of hungry Utahns off food stamps. The Salt Lake Tribune reports:

About 875 Utahns lost their food stamps last month under a new policy that anti-hunger advocates say they would have opposed had they known about it.
That's fewer than 2 percent of the 54,750 households on food stamps in any given month. But it's the neediest 2 percent, mostly chronically homeless men and women, say advocates who complain the policy was never publicly vetted.

Good job also hunger advocates, who missed the boat on this one, thinking that more people would be covered under the new plan. Also, Huntsman's stooges didn't follow Administrative Rulemaking proceedures, calling it a temporary fix to a "crisis" that there is isn't enough food stamps to go around.

"In the past, Utah has never exhausted its limit and should be able to roll over cases from last year or borrow from next year's allotment," said [ Bill] Tibbetts [, an advocate for the Anti-Hunger Coalition]. "I'm not sure why state officials kept this under wraps. It makes you wonder, are there other major changes in policy that we don't know about?"

I bet there are. You don't seem to be doing your job very well, since Huntsman is pretty crafty.

Utah, the army of God, and the US Army

One of my more liberal friends has pointed out to me that Utah has one of the lowest armed forces participation rate, yet is one of the few remaining supporters of Bush and Iraq. The Deseret News proves her right:

total military (Army, Navy, Air Force and Marines) recruits per 1,000 youths in fiscal year 2005, put Utah near the bottom of all states, with 2.5 per 1,000 youths ages 15-24. The top two states were Montana and Texas, at 5.7 and 5.2 per 1,000, with the national average being 3.8 per 1,000.
One reason for Utah's low ranking may be linked to the large number of young men in Utah who serve two-year missions for The Church Of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to both the NPP and an Army recruiter in West Valley City.

I don't see why that should matter. Maybe young men (and women) will be off a mission for up to two years, but that doesn't mean they can't join up once they get home. Are they saying that LDS youth get all their world traveling and being away from home and family out of their system by going on a mission?

This article is heavy on facts, and light on analysis. I think the mission explanation is used almost as an excuse for every atyptical stat on Utah. Then there is this factiod that is left hanging...

The NPP considers low- to middle-income neighborhoods to be those having a median household income between $30,000 and $55,000, a group the NPP says is "over-represented" in active-duty Army recruits. The NPP makes its comparison to recruits coming from "wealthier" areas, where NPP says the median household income is above $55,000. The latter group was already "under-represented" in active-duty Army numbers for new recruits, according to NPP's data from the previous year.

The article doesn't answer the question, nor does the NPP research director, but the answer is prety obvious. Military recruiters target poor, ill-educated neighborhoods, figuring that the military's "we'll pay for college and trips around the world" pitch will play better with people that can afford neither than those who send junior to the Ivy-League and on trips to Europe.

The poor are also those most in need of a good paying job that has low skill-level requirements. And the military offers that as well (obviously, they train people and also hire highly skilled folks as well).

Of course, people making over $55,000 and less than $100,000 are probabbly what you and I would call middle class, not wealthier. And over all, military recruiting has dropped rapidly as the Iraq war as dragged on...none of which should be surprising. It is a lot less fun traveling the world when your people will be trying to kill you along the journey.

recommendations

Today I find myself in the strange position of writing my own recommendation for a supervisior at work. Obviously those reading do not know her voice, but they might reccognize mine from my cover letter. Busy people typically request you write the letter for them, and then they get to skim it and sign it.

But I have trouble say wonderful things about myself while pretending someone else. Any advise from readers out there?

utah's schools need help

I hope everyone had a great Labor Day weekend (thanks, Labor). I certainly did. Taking a break from blogging and catching up on family, friends and pop culture certainly was nice.

Today I spotted an article in the Deseret Morning News about a school building a yurt. And while the article is supposed to be about how cool this school is, complete with trips to Mexico and Washington DC, the fact that there isn't enough space for all the children in most Utah schools is the real story.

The circular, tent-like building will serve as an addition to the Walden School of Liberal Arts — it's cheaper than a portable classroom — while the administrators continue to raise money for a new building on 2 1/2 acres on University Avenue that they purchased for $560,000.
School administrators would like a 20,000-square-foot building by next school year, but they are discussing financing options. "We don't know if it will be ready," school director Diana West said. "It's looking less and less likely."

Charter schools often face the utter lack of a building, while normal public schools face inadaquate space.

The Beehive State has the nation's biggest classes, with an average teacher-to-student ratio of 1-to-23 students. The national average is 1-to-15.6. Teachers say those ratios don't do the problem justice: Those in big school districts say high schools can have 40 or more students per class.

And parents agree: a Dan Jones poll conducted mid-August showed that "82 percent of Davis County residents said their schools were overcrowded, with 78 percent in Salt Lake County, 79 percent in Utah County and 72 percent in Weber County answering the same way. Elsewhere in Utah, 70 percent of residents said their classrooms are crowded."

Even 39%--a plurality--said we should definity raise taxes to pay for reducing overcrowding, and 43% in another question said the surplus should go to schools. Yet what did the legislature do this session? Spend billions on bonds for construction of roads canals and the like that won't even begin for years to come. And what does Jon Huntsman Jr. want to do with any budget surplus? Create a tax break for the super rich.

I was blessed to be able to attend a school in Utah with small class sizes from pre-k to 12th grade, but the only place to find that is a private school. Even small towns now band together to create large schools.

If Democrats take back Congress this fall, then help will be on the way. House Democrats in the past have sought to give local government's favorable school construction/repair/remodeling loans, and I am sure they would propose to do so in the future. The same goes for teacher training and recruitment programs, which would forgive student loans for those who decide to teach primary and secondary school for a couple years.

Certainly, the fact that Utah has more of its population under 15 than any other state in the nation, and that Utah is also one of the poorer states doesn't help matters. But we as a state shouldn't be making the situation worse by giving new tax breaks to the ultra-wealthy and buying more roads we shouldn't build. [We need to make our urban areas more compact and more public transit accessable to reduce traffic] I urge parents to talk to their legislators who are asking for their votes this November to promise them to make reducing class sizes and overcrowding the number one priority for them next session.

on protests

(Photo Credit: Leah Hogsten--The Salt Lake Tribune)

So there was a "large" anti-war/Bush protest in downtown SLC today, that is about a couple thousand people. Blow hard Mayor Rocky Anderson spoke. I saw it on the channel 2 jumbotron on Main Street, and I looked at the window as my TRAX train passed by.

Of all the people to protest to, however, Bush is the worst one to do. He doesn't care what the people think, especially now that he cannot run for re-election. If you protested Clinton, he might care because he loves people and wants everyone to love him (child of a alcoholic). Bush is charming, but he doesn't really enjoy people as people, only certain people. That is, he likes people who agree with him and no one who disagrees with him.

Moreover, I get extremely annoyed with ultra-liberals. They tend to want to talk about their pet issues, to go through the laundry list of greivences, rather than to stay focused and stick to a clear message that everyone can agree with. 55% of Americans want a change of course in Iraq. They don't necessarily want to impeach Bush, or take on Haliburton etc.

In the fall of 2002, I argued with people whom I thought would be the most receptive to preventing the war in Iraq: the DLC. As an employee, I tried to convince the higher ups that Saddam wasn't a threat, that there probabbly weren't any WMD's, that Bush would mismanage the occupation like he did in Afghanistan, that the war would be a big mistake. Of course, they didn't listen that much (but they did conceed that Bush probabbly would mismanage the occupation), and cheerleaded this disasterous policy. But I knew that grabbing a placcard and marching would have been even less effective.

That isn't to say that protests and marching in the streets in general is fruitless. The immigration march in the spring proved that protests are still very effective in the US. I just think protesting this president on this policy with this crowd is a waste of time and effort. But if it makes you feel better, have at it.

Photo of the day

MSGOP anchor Rita Cosby, who 'interviewed' ex-Rep. Tom DeLay right after his indictment, tries to get another scoop.

I am so glad that the media can stop its inane coverage of what's his bucket who wasn't even in the state when that little girl was killed. Now we can focus on some other funny images...

On the way to school today, I saw an astroturf pro-Bush banner on a GOP building owner (he is giving money to GOP SLCo. DA candidate Lola Miller so that she will move the DA's office to his building next year when the lease runs up). [It said "Thank you President Bush, you are our Hero!"] Then a few blocks later, I saw a lampost banner for a play at the University of Utah: George Orwell's 1984. Oh the irony. Eat that Atlantis!

traffic and the White House

So taxpayers and Utah drivers suffered this morning so that Condi and or Rummy could get to their political stunt on time. I was walking to court when I noticed that none of the lights on State Street had changed in quite some time. In fact, the various South's were jammed back with cars, trucks, buses, and TRAX all dutifly waiting for UDOT to escourt the two White House official most complicit (other than Cheney and Bush) in the utter disasters in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, western Turkey, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, and of course their latest hit, Iran.

Why should the American people have to pay for politicans to give political speeches in the guise of policy? Why should states and local governments have to foot the bill for increased security when said politicans show up? Why can't the RNC or DNC or PACs pay for such nonsense? Because of the WH communications dept's ideas of salvaging their boss' political future rests on tired old rhetoric in front of favorable crowds in favorable cities, hundreds of cases were delayed or continued, hundreds of drivers were late to work, late delivering, late to classes, missed appointments, meetings, subpeonas.

And for what? What new did they say today that they haven't said a million times before? They should have just FedEx'ed a tape of an old speech, few would have noticed the difference.

Do-no-wrong Mayor

The Salt Lake Tribune conducted a Poll on the soccer deal. Guess who won: Corroon.

"Despite reversing course - Corroon argues the terms of the new deal are considerably more favorable - the mayor's approval rating has jumped to 72 percent, according to the new survey."

So even though 55% of Salt Lake County residents oppose the new soccer deal, more people approve of Carroon.

Voters have grown to trust Peter Carroon, they see him as an honest broker and a non-partisan who is looking out for them. And I must say, upon reviewing the new terms of the deal, the County comes out ahead. Appearantly, you don't try to play hardball with Carroon, because he wins.

I think we just might call him Governor or Senator in 2012 or so.

the definition of stupidity

"The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." — Albert Einstein

A new article in the Salt Lake Tribune lays this message out somewhat subtly.

Last year, President Bush came to Salt Lake for a older military veteran club conference, hoping to kick off a campaign that would rebound his support (at least amoung his conservative base) on the Iraq War and in general. Of course, Bush went down hill from there amoung all Americans and now somewhere between 55-60% of Americans disapprove of the course we are staying on in Iraq...and have done so for several months now. This was due in no small part to what happened the day after Bush spoke to the Veterans of Foreign Wars (VFW): Katrina.

"That just dominated all other issues - local and national issues," Utah Republican Party Chairman Joe Cannon said. "There's no question that Katrina sucked the wind out of everything, including the president's views on Iraq.
"And that was the story for months."

It laid bare that Bush's cronyism, incompetance, and ideology over reality can directly hurt Americans back home too, and not just those who signed up to join the armed forces.

This year, the Bush White House is sending not just Bush, but Condi and Rummy to an American Legionniares conference in Salt Lake in an attempt to bail out his, and his party's, abismal approval ratings. Also this year, another storm looms in the Carribean threatening New Orleans, whose leeves are admittedly still not up to snuff.

At the time of Bush's last speech in Salt Lake City, about 38 percent of adults nationwide supported his handling of the war in Iraq, according to a CBS News/New York Times poll. This month, the same pollsters found just 30 percent of the country still felt confident in Bush's war leadership.

And yet, they try again to convince us with the same "cut and run" language that they are right and we--the majority--are wrong.

And although the majority of Utahns still support Bush because he is a religious conservative man who is in power, the rest of America is willing to give Democrats a shot at Congress. Were that 2006 were 2004, and Bush's days would truely be numbered. As it is, he will stubbornly hang around as investigations reveal the true disasterousness of his presidency.

My own view? Iraq may need to be divided into three states now, with UN/NATO peacekeepers squelching the violence as much as possible, a giant Yugoslavia of our own making. The US military cannot bomb our way into ending a civil war, we need Arab allies and other nations to go back into Iraq and try to create peace and stability, but none I fear will want to go. The Iraqis on some level don't trust us anymore, but we cannot leave them to their own devices...some sort of troops need to be there. Right now, Iraq and Afghanistan are failed states, breeding grounds for terrorists and extremists of all sorts. We can't let them stay that way.

In order to win this war that started on September 11, 2001, the people of the middle east need hope: hope that they can get a good paying job to support their family, hope that they can walk down the streets and go shopping without fearing death or pain, hope that life can get better, hope that their leaders are responsive to their needs, hope for peace and security. All these people have now is dispair.

This means creating a viable Palistinan state, complete with access to jobs, housing, and drinking water. This means ending corruption and cronyism in middle east countries. This means ending using hate and religion to keep the public distracted from a failure of governing. Of course this is a tall order, but Europe too was mired in nasty religious wars for centuries until the end of World War II. The creation of the EU, NATO, and the Warsaw Pact helped create peace, stability and economic growth. Now, a war in Europe is a laughable idea.

Oh and if you think things are terrible in the middle east now, wait until the oil really starts to run out.

Friday round-up

• Utah has so many divorces that they have an online divorce tool, which is pretty slick.


• Alabama Democrats tried to split the baby: the state party "disqualified an openly gay candidate for the Alabama Legislature and the woman she defeated in the primary runoff because both women violated a party rule that party officials said no other candidate has obeyed since 1988," but it failed. Why, because if the party disqualified Patricia Todd "for not filing a financial disclosure form with the party chairman it would also have to disqualify the party's nominee for governor, Lt. Gov. Lucy Baxley, and for lieutenant governor, former Gov. Jim Folsom Jr."


• Utah's own Senator Macacca: St. Sen. Chris Buttars R-South Jordan.
  

  Buttars was responding to questions from reporter Tom Grover on Logan radio station KVNU-AM.
  Buttars plans to introduce a bill that would allow the Senate to remove a state judge from office at the end of the jurist's term if he and fellow senators took issue with the judge's rulings.
  When Grover mentioned that "courts are the way for those in the minority ... to ensure (their) rights are protected," Buttars responded with the following:
  "I don't understand that at all. You give me an example. I don't know of any example where the minority is being jeopardized by legislative action."
  When Grover mentioned the 1955 Brown v. Board of Education ruling as an example, Buttars said: "Well, I think Brown v. Board of Education is wrong to begin with. That's a whole other subject. Call me again and take a half-hour to talk about that."

  
  It gets better: The book that he cited to support his argument, says nothing of the sort.
  

  [Author Jay P.] Greene said Thursday that his book isn't about desegregation but about what he calls "common claims in education not supported by evidence. Nothing in the book discusses the affects of segregation or desegregation."

  
  
• Bush says there's no point “discussing the pros and cons of the war.” Why, because as long as he's President, we are staying there [unless Democrats take control of Congress]. This man is just begging Democrats to run a great campaign about Iraq, and then the laundry list of domestic woes. Iraq is the number one issue on voters minds. We don't need to do one of those "If was in the Congress in 2002..." voting questions, but say "Congress[wo]man/Senator X is enabling Bush's disasterous Iraq policy by not holding the administration accountable/responsbile for their errors." While you are at it, you can say "Congressman/Senator X voted for it over and over again, and I wouldn't have."

Have a happy and safe weekend. I think Saturday will be hike day for the wife and I. Recommendations for easy hikes near SLC are welcomed.

lede with understatement

This has got to be one of the funniest introductary clauses I have read in a long time:

Perhaps concerned that he is 40 points down in the polls, state Rep. LaVar Christensen is the first major candidate to jump into the TV advertisement wars this election season.
...he actually only bought one $3,200 spot on the Thursday night late news on KSL-TV, a television ad executive said. She said other local TV stations report Christensen bought a single ad on their late news, as well.

Just to give you an idea how little chance Christensen has, the last poll had him down 64-23 (in mid-July)...now sure that will narrow with ads, but here's another big problem. Matheson has about a million cash on hand, whereas Christensen has $100,000 in bank. Keep in mind, Christensen cut himself a $150,000 check...Matheson might pay for a tank of gas on his way to campaign event now and again, but that's about it. [FEC reports and breakdowns here]

This means that unless NRCC can pump in hundreds of thousands in a few weeks assuming it gets close. And the NRCC is already having to play defense on dozens of districts such that they aren't even playing offense in UT-02, a high-60s/low-70s percent Bush district in 2004.

This there isn't much room for LaVar to attack Jim:

Out of the 15 votes that Bishop bragged about to his constituents, Matheson voted with Bishop and the GOP majority 13 times.
...
Since entering Congress in 2001, Matheson has voted about 50 percent of the time in step with GOP President Bush's positions on legislative issues, reviews by Congressional Quarterly have shown.
"I don't keep score" on whether votes are for or against Republicans or Democrats," said Matheson. "I try to take each issue and vote how to represent my constituents in Utah."
...
A July survey shows that 75 percent of Matheson's constituents approve of the job he is doing. That's a very good rating.

That's a good line, and true from my experience interning for him. And I am obviously not the only one who likes and trusts him, in fact, he is the most popular member of the Utah delegation.

So Jim's seat is safe, although I doubt he will win 64-23.

campaigning for a job

The cliche line is that running for office, especially running for president, is like one long job interview. If that is true, man campaign are going to be tough.

Today I blasted through 4 motions in 6 hours (all of which rock thank you), raced up to Milcreek Canyon to have lunch with the division I used to clerk for at the DA's office.

There, I glad-handed each and every attorney I could manage in the time without looking like I was glad-handing. Plus, the chicken and side dishes were amazing, but quite a long drive. Up and down to park the car, then off to law school to glad hand again.

All your classmates will be your collegues soon. All will be able of giving you work. All your professors are your recommendations and graders. This year is a never ending job interview for dozens of jobs, most of which I won't get. But I will never know which I will get until I do...so the campaign trail never ends. Wish me luck and vote Oldenburg for employed.

George W. and Laura Bush crash my wedding...over a year late

I got this in the mail on Monday. At first, I thought it was a joke. Who from the White House would send a letter hand addressed to both me and my wife. It is not like I have friend or even acquaintance working there.

The postmark showed it was indeed sent off from the White House on August 18, 2006, exactly a year and two months from my wedding date.

So what gives? They certainly weren't sent an perfunctory invitation. And the New York Times article on our wedding my wife managed to get published came out the day after we tied the knot. It was pretty cool to pick up the Times in the Newark Airport on the way to our Honeymoon and see our names in it.

Any theories as to why much belated wedding wishes were sent out to Mr. and Mrs. Oldenburg? Third Ave'ers know that I have not been a fan of Bush since 1994, and not been a fan of his father's since the 1980 GOP convention when he flip flopped on "voodoo economics." Nor do I like Laura, who is complicit in her husband's failed presidency.

It was by far the funniest bit of junk mail I have ever recieved. I say junk because by definition, it was wholly unsolicited. Could a closet GOP relative be behind this? The whole thing boggles my mind. I will let this one slide, but if I get a Christmas Card from the Bush family, all bets are off.

end the snobbery

Take a break from the endless, mindless coverage of that wierdo who the media has decided killed the Ramsey girl. Do we really care what he ate on board? If only he got hit by a bus, the madness would end.

Anyway, when you go to a movie or think about going to a movie, do you ever read the New York Times movie review? I doubt it. Why? Because who cares what a bunch of elitist jerks think? Last night I watched Alfred Hitchcock's "Torn Curtain" starring Paul Newman and Julie Andrews (odd casting I know). That 1966 thriller wasn't perfect, but I enjoyed it. It obviously was not as good as the Hitchcock classics, but definitely better than anything that claims to be a thriller in the theaters this summer. Also, no real sex or gore.

That is the thing I like about old movies, and not because I am a prude. Older movies are more like books in that the violence and sex are left to your imagination, which can be even more exciting/scary than if you were to see every last drop like modern movies show.

But back to the point. So after the film I searched around for the review, and got this from 1966. Bosley Crowther, "America's foremost film critic for over a quarter of a century," wrote the review for the Times. Not only was it dripping with contemptuous sarcasm, he is unnecessarily horrible.



Here's a section that proves it was written in 1966:

His troubles are further compounded by the mildly romantic fact that his secretary, who also happens to be his fiancée, has stubbornly tagged along with him on his flight into East Germany, not knowing what he is up to, and embarrassingly gets in his way. In the manner of women, however, she's a help when they have to flee.

One of the last vestiges of New Yorker's superiority complex for the whole world to see is the Times movie review. I am trying to think of the last movie they liked. The point is never to enjoy a film but to find as much fault as possible, and say it with as much clever cruelty as possible.

You can almost picture Bosley smirking with each return of typewriter, DING! The film industry left New York City in the 1920s because movies could be filmed year round in the sun of Southern California. But the gloomy NYC haughtiness never left Gotham.

This is why I had trouble with the Times and New York long before 9/11 and the Iraq war. They just behave and believe they know better than the rest of us bumpkins. Bosley is currently embodied in A.O. Scott, who has never said a positive thing about a major Hollywood film to my memory. There is a reason people listen to Roger Ebert more than any other reviewer, and it is not because the Chicago Sun-Times is such a great paper (it isn't), it is because he has thoughtful, constructive things to say about most films. Sure he can slam a terrible SNL-alum film like the best of them, but he isn't universally nasty.

My favorite reporter the Grey Lady employs is Jennifer 8. Lee. That's right 8, as in eight. She decided that there were too many Asian ladies named Jennifer Lee, so to distinguish herself, she gave herself a numerical middle name. I wonder what the 8 is short for. She also knows how to party like the fictional women on "Sex and the City."

See you can have your “high class” without having to hate everything on God’s green Earth and come with a too-clever-by-half insulting line. I would like to dump the whole lot of them out in the wilderness and see how Nature enjoys their insecurity-based taunts.

requiem for the summer

Normally, I hate the summer. First, it's hot, so I sweat and get sunburned. Second, I don't see my friends from school as much. Third, I am not in school so there is less learning and more monotony. But this summer went by pretty fast. I saw many friends, visited my sister, remodeled my kitchen, and had interesting work.

Of course, there were dull and down times, like when a insect bite got infected and traveled up my arm, or when I was begging for a project at work. Next year I am sure will fly by, with all the applications, classes, and goodbyes. If I stay in Utah, I will see most of my classmates occasionally. But if I get some job out of state, all bets are off. Right now I am applying to the FEC, DOJ, scores of firms in Utah and the Baltimore-Washington area, as well as judicial clerkships and hoping for an opening to a job here at the DA's. I am also applying for a fellowship that would take me to Germany for a year to work in legislative, judicial, or executive branch (or the media or industry or private law firms), how cool is that?

School starts on Tuesday and on one hand I am glad to get back into it, and on the other, I am afraid of all the changes to come and would like to continue my life as is for a little longer. After all, it is comfortable. But I am excited to see everyone again, learn new things, and start a new phase in my life: as a working stiff.

I have given some thought to getting more education, but I think it is a pretty selfish move because it would be purely for self-enrichment and not for the sake of providing for my family to be. I like teaching and learning but I don't want to actually be a high school teacher...maybe a college professor, but those are extremely competitive.

Only a few days remain before responsibility kicks back in, but it was fun while it lasted.

Corrupt and idiotic to the core

Joe Cannon, Credit: AP.

Chris Cannon, Credit: endtheoccupation.org

Joe and Chris Cannon, brothers and major shareholders in ultra-poluting Geneva Steel, did another stupid and unethical thing.

"Three times this year, a lobbyist sought help from Rep. Christopher Cannon [(R-UT)] for his clients and got it. The lobbyist was the congressman's brother, Joseph Cannon.

"The Utah lawmaker acknowledges helping his brother's clients, including pressing Congress last month to intervene in a business dispute over an Internet contract estimated to be worth as much as $1.3 billion. . .

"Cannon has a financial interest in his brother's success: The lobbyist owes him more than $250,000, according to the lawmaker's financial disclosure reports."

Rep. Cannon denies the aid he gave his brother's clients was improper. "The rules really come down to disclosure," he told AP. "It's easy to make the connections you made between me and my brother."

Yes indeed it is easy, which is why the head of the state party shouldn't be related to a member of congress. Nor should a relative be a lobbyists, let alone a lobbyist to said relative. It gives, at the very least, an appearance of impropriety.

"If my wife decided to lobby, then we would probably say, 'No talking to my office.' I just don't see my brother in the same category," Cannon, R-Utah, told The Associated Press.

Do you really think that Haddassah Lieberman or Mrs. Tom Daschle are such sucessful lobbyists because they are good at it, or is it because their husbands were powerful Senators? Even worse are Curt Weldon's kids, whose company pretty much exclusively lobbies him and makes millions, or John Doolittle wife, who gets a cut of every dollar raised. Or Bill Richardson's family, who were paid hansomly in lieu of Dollar Bill himself until Bill discovered his freezer.

The Cannon boys take the cake. Chris is one of the most idiotic, vote in droves Republican out there. And his brother is a terrible chairman. In the reddest state in the union, he has yet to find a mildly appealling alternative to Jim Matheson.

Meanwhile, Orin "hypocrite" Hatch is pulling off his best Lieberman/Cheney Impression:

Hatch was quoted in Tuesday's Tooele Transcript Bulletin as saying Middle East terrorists are "waiting for the Democrats here to take control, let things cool off and then strike again."

BOO! Now vote for me. That is the GOP 2006 platform appearantly. Have you ever heard a dumber argument? Terrorism is thriving under the Bush Administration because of their terrible policies. I mean, bin Laden filmed a campaign video for Bush in the fall of 2004. They love Bush and his GOP accolytes because those morons drive recruitment.

Can't people in this state see through the utter lunacy and corruption that is the leadership of the Republican party, both nationally and in Utah?

What a difference Carroon makes

If Jim Matheson were ever to lose an election, I thought back in 2002 and 2004, Utah Democrats would be screwed. He was our last best hope. But now, I think we got another waiting in the wings, thanks in part to Howard Dean.



Dean's cousin, Peter Carroon, worked his butt off and got lucky in his 2004 race for Salt Lake County Mayor. But now, Carroon is one of the most popular politicans in the most populous county in Utah. He keeps making smart moves that make him appealing to those beyond his Avenues/9th and 9th base.

Even though a soccer stadium is going forward, Carroon showed that he isn't a push over, and doesn't like to waste taxpayer dollars. He got a big boost in popularity while taking on the Speaker of the House, Sandy's mayor, and other GOP big wigs. Instead of showing up to the cerimonial first shovel, Carrroon kept it real by being at his son's soccer game/practice.

Now he gets to use Rocky as a foil on the left. Salt Lake City's outgoing (thank goodness) mayor grandstanded...I mean protested against the war in Iraq by protesting the American Legion conference. American Legionniares are all old vets, I doubt any more than a handful of those there were in the Iraq war. And it probabbly offended a great many of them. So this year, Carroon will be the official greeter instead.

I think Peter has a decent chance to run for Governor or Senate one day. If I were him, I wouldn't go for the House. First though, get reelected by a big margin in 2008. Still, Utah Democrats now have a real bench. And if a decent Democrat gets elected mayor of Salt Lake City, then we might have another seat open up on the bench...behind the squeeky clean County Mayor.

Buttars than Erza

Utah's most demagogic State Senator is at it again:

Chris Buttars - the state senator who last session championed instruction on divine intervention and banning gay clubs at schools - now proposes giving him and his Senate colleagues the power to fire judges whose rulings they don't like.

Right now, our system is appointment by the Governor, confirmation by the Senate, and periodical retention votes by the public. Personally, I think our system is the best of all possibilities. Judges are mostly insulated from the public and will do what they believe is right under the law, but if they act very egregiously, the people can organize a campaign to oust them. Only a few have not been retained, and that was for truly biased decisions. I am sure if one of them got caught doing drugs or went insane, the voters would can those judges too.

Buttars, who I am sure never went to law school or read the Federalist Papers, said "That is the only way to make the public aware of some of these terrible decisions. ... I don't know where some of these decisions are coming from. Some judges just go in there and wing it." You don't know Senator because you don't understand that they go by statutes and the common law, not the Bible and/or Book of Mormon.

Richard Schwermer, assistant state court administrator, said Buttars' idea has constitutional problems.
"The (Utah State) Constitution says the governor has his role to play, in nominating. The Senate has its role to play, in confirming," he said. But nowhere in the constitution does it say that the Senate gets another shot at a judge in the retention process.

Oh and both Governor Huntsman and Chief Justice Durham agree with me. Yet scarily enough, Buttars has chair the Judiciary Committee for 4 years.

"This is a really bad idea," said Scott Daniels, a former president of the Utah State Bar, former Democratic legislator and former 3rd District judge. "This goes in the wrong direction. We want to keep judges away from political pressure, not closer to it."
Besides any constitutional concerns, "from a practical matter you would not get very qualified people to even apply to be a judge."

Who wants to be a judge at the whim of a couple idiots on Salt Lake’s Capitol Hill? I sure wouldn't and neither would most attorneys. Federal judges can't be removed so easily. "The judges, both of the supreme and inferior courts, shall hold their offices during good behavior, and shall, at stated times, receive for their services, a compensation, which shall not be diminished during their continuance in office." U.S. Const. Art. III, Sec. 1. Good behavior basically means criminal activity or insanity, I can only think of one federal judge that has been impeached, John Pickering in 1804, and that was because he had gone insane. Buttars is just trying to do his best Dobson impersonation. Leave the demagoguery to professionals Chris.

CW, meet reality

Before I begin, let me just say that I really respect Dan Jones. His polling in Utah is top notch and the only one I really trust. In fact, I almost considered going to this event at the UCC where he talked about why Utah is so red.

And maybe the reporter from the Deseret News was an idiot and just focused on the CW stuff, that's very possible. But I must dispell several MSM lines of CW here.

1. "Democrats have no clear policy on immigration."

Yes they do. They have passed several bills in the senate immigration. And McCain has signed on to this sensible solution. It is the GOP that is divided. A good chunk of them support the Sensenbrenner lock-em-up type legislation, others support the Senate Democrats position. I will say this over and over again in this piece, but Democrats don't control anything in DC. This makes it very hard to pass bills and without the high level of staff it is hard to further articulate your positions, yet Democrats have a bill that would get support from the majority of Americans but the House won't take it up. Even President Bush would sign this bill.


2. failure to articulate an exit strategy in Iraq


This is similar to the above point, but slightly closer to the mark. There are still a few Democrats that debate about when we should pull troops out of Iraq, and some of the Joe Lieberman camp that are still refusing to admit their mistake in cheerleading the war, but Lieberman and his followers' days in electoral politics are numbered (negatively). Democrats have united on Iraq for the most part. We all agree that it is going terribly right now, and we need to change the situation by strategically redeploying troops elsewhere. Both those who supported the war, like Joe Biden, and those who opposed the war, like Nancy Pelosi, signed on to this letter.

Unlike the immigration issue, Democrats have yet to issue a hard, definative policy on Iraq. It is however, a question of when, not whether we should get out of there. Some say the end of the year, some say another Friedman (AKA six months) after that. Iraq is an even more difficult policy issue than immigration. However, it was entirely preventable had we not elected to wage this unnecessary war. The situation has gotten increasingly worse as the President and his supporters have gotten increasingly obstinant in their support of this ill-fated adventure. And again, as the minority out of power party, we don't have to and shouldn't be expected to issue a white paper on what to do. Even if we did and took over Congress on that white paper (which only in punditland happens), we couldn't impliment it until 2008, because Bush is the Commander in Chief. We have a general policy that Americans can understand (and 55% of them support), and that is plenty.


3. Failure to pass the minimum wage bill


I don't know if Jones actually read the bill, but the GOP attached a poison bill amendment to further cut taxes for America's Paris Hiltons. Sure, GOP leaders can claim they voted for the wage hike and that their opponents voted against it, but Democrats have a great new line on the Estate Tax: Paris Hilton tax. And I think your average voter knows who supports increasing the wage and who doesn't. In fact, in several states across the country, there are ballot initiatives supported by Democrats and their union allies because the federal government won't raise the minimum wage.


4. "Utah wasn't always so red"


This is the one of the stupidest comments in the whole piece, and I assume Mr. Jones was misunderstood by the reporter. Red state does not mean Republican, it means conservative. The article claimed that Utah used to support Democrats for a long time. But let's remember that prior to the 1930s, the Democrats were a pretty conservative party, and it was still pretty conservative until the Voting Rights Act of 1965. Moreover, the Republican Party was founded on its zeal to eliminate "the twin barbarisms of our time" namely slavery and polygamy.

The GOP was filled with such hatred towards Mormons that is not surprising that Utah was a one party Democratic state for a long time. But remember, the last Democrat to carry Utah was in 1964 with LBJ's huge sweep.

I would say that the parties have changed overtime, and Utah really hasn't. It has always been a pretty conservative place, opposed to gay marriage, abortion, etc. And as the Democratic party grew to support such things on a national level, so too did the party's prospects wither in the Beehive state.


5. The inability of the state's Democrats and independents "to relate with a Democrat at the national level."


I don't think we Utah Democrats need to relate to the national party. Kansas, Arizona, Wyoming, New Mexico, Oklahoma, North Carolina, and Virginia (along with probably Colorado, Ohio, Alaska, and Kentucky in the up coming elections) all are states with a majority of Republicans in their delegations, which went for Bush in varying degrees in 2004 and most in 2000, yet have strong Democratic parties and popular Democratic governors.

These folks often distinguish themselves from the national party on abortion, or gay rights, or guns, etc. but they do just fine on a state level.

So why does the modern Democratic Party fair so poorly in Utah?


Many members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints "feel that Democrat policies are counter to church positions."


And not just that it is counter, but that Democrats are somehow immoral and untrustworthy because of these positions.

The cultural link between the GOP and the LDS church is so strong that many members who are Democrats feel ashamed to admit it or talk about their feelings personally. Culturally, they are pressured to follow along with the "dogma" that Republicans are virtuous and righteous while Democrats are downright evil. "You don't have to be LDS to win in Utah," said Jones. "You've got two chances: slim and none. But you've got a chance."

This is despite the fact that the official position of the church is that both parties have elements that fit the teachings of the LDS faith. Democrats have their social justice issues (poverty, health care, etc.) and Republicans have their culture war issues (gays, abortion, sex).

As I have said before, many a good Mormon was also a good member of the Democratic Party. Democrats also don't require its members to agree with everything in the platform. LDS Sen. Minority Leader Harry Reid is pro-Life. Tenn. Rep. Lincoln Davis is anti-gay rights. Senate Candidate Bob Casey is so pro-Life that his dad is the Casey in last landmark abortion case Planned Parenthood v. Casey.

Before I ramble off too much on this well-trodden ground, let me address another lame CW myth: "I promise you, he'll gain 5 percentage points, five," Jones said of Bush's popularity after the foiled London plot.

Let's look at the polls, shall we?

The arrests in Britain have not helped President Bush's popularity so far, the CBS poll finds. His job approval remains exactly at 36 percent, where it was a month ago. Even the president's rating for handling terrorism – his strongest suit – remains unchanged at 51 percent.

So much for that five point bump? The only other poll I have seen that was conducted on the issue had Bush at 38 percent, up a whole 3 points from the last Newsweek poll.

Oh and Dan? Three points in a month is within the margin of error. Shall I explain that concept to you as well?

Articles that leave out the real story

In the Salt Lake Tribune today, we get this enigmatic headline: "Leavitt makes surprise SUU visit"

Gee, why would Former Governor Leavitt unexpectedly show up at Southern Utah University?



Could it be he needed to take care of his laundry?

Leavitt pretended to be there about "he need for Americans to get fit and stay fit." Yet when questions returned to his sham charity, he refused to talk to reporters. "I'm not doing interviews," he said. "I'm on vacation."

Meanwhile, the Washington Post that other local paper, decides to mention a trival bit of news for their article on Leavitt:

The Internal Revenue Service plans to audit a foundation that channeled tax-deductible donations from the Leavitt family through Southern Utah University back to the Leavitts in the form of student rent for family-owned student housing,

Why leave this key item in the story? Apparantly this news was broken by the Trib itself. So why not connect the dots or raise the issue? Mark my words, Leavitt may have to resign for "personal reasons" in a few months. I am no tax expert, but this looks pretty nefarious. Finally something is sticking to Governor Teflon, even if he is now Secretary of HHS.

Is there a non-corrupt/crony Republican in power in Washington these days? Please name one for me, because I can't think of one off the top of my head.

quote of the day

Just back from filing her candidacy credit: Reuters

Porn Star Mary Carey, who ran in 2003's recall election as a Republican, is once again going to run as a Republican against Arnold for Califiornia's Governorship.

Her campaign slogan: "Finally, a politician you want to be screwed by"

Other gems:

"I think I'm more serious now," Carey said as she arrived at a Los Angeles County elections office to launch her 2006 gubernatorial campaign. "As you can see I'm dressed more seriously. I've got brown in my hair because brunettes are taken more seriously."

She also decided to lose weight and get new implants. Her core constituency, horn-dog young men.

She promised to give up on alcohol (at least until November) and her movie career like Arnold "Although my movies only take a day or two to shoot, so I could probably do them on weekends," she said.

McKinney's conspiracy theory redux

ex-Rep. Cynthia McKinney lost (again) a primary to a mainstream Democrat. And just like in 2002, she is blaming Republicans and Diebold for her loss, not her record of insanity.

“We aren’t going to tolerate any more stolen elections,” Ms. McKinney said in her concession speech, though crossover voting is legal in Georgia.
[...]
Under Georgia’s system, voters may choose either a Republican or a Democratic ballot in the primary election. If there is a runoff, primary voters must stick with the party they originally selected, but voters who did not vote in the primary are free to vote for either party.

Even if GOPers voted 100% for her opponent, that still wouldn't have been enough to unseat her by the 13 points she lost by. This too, is like 2002. I guess we should be thankful that her and her father aren't blaming the Jews for this one as well...although they tried to insinuate that all of ex. County Commissioner/Congressman-elect Hank Johnson's money was coming from Jews.

I am glad that Tuesday night was a massacre night for incumbents. Joe, Cynthia and endangered species sane GOPer Tim Schwartz (who was targeted by Club for Growth much more than MoveOn.org/DFA/DailyKos/MyDD targeted Lieberman) all went down hard. All deserved it for being out of touch with their constituents. Joe and Tim's constituents wanted a partisan, not a faux-compromiser. Cynthia's wanted a non-embarressing member of congress.

In other news, I don't buy this latest "thwarted Al Qaeda attack." Maybe all the manipulation and abuse of intelligence, the scaremongering, and lies of the Bush Administration has jaded me so that when their really is a wolf, I don't believe it. But why does Al Qaeda only threaten the U.S. at the end of the summer/early fall of even numbered years, just when the GOP looks like they might lose an election?

How many times last year was there a terror alert...that's right zero. And don't tell me the British were behind it, weren't they the stodges behind the "yellow cake?" Tony Blair is really the UK's version of Joe Lieberman. He used to be a respectable Third Way New Labour/New Democrat, but now he thinks being strong on security is supporting Bush's foreign policy without question or hesitation. The British public might soon can Blair like CT voters nixed Lieberman.

And I suspect that Lieberman will be crushed in November. He will lose a significant chunck of his primary supporters and overtime the rest of CT voters will grow weary of selfish Joe. This all started in 2000 when he refused to just run for VP, such that had Gore actually been inaugurated, now-convicted felon then GOP Governor would have picked CT's senator to replace Joe. It all went down hill from there. People say Joe was just following Gore's terrible adivsors strategy about being soft on Cheney. But once Joe realized (and he should have) that Cheney was trying to be CEO grampa and not the truely evil man he is, he should have ditched the script and gone for the juggular. And Lieberman shouldn't have nixed Gore's decision making on the military ballots during the recount. And on and on I could go. But we all know how it ended: with Karl Rove calling Joe Lieberman after losing his primary, and Joe accepting the call. Joe's people claim Karl never offered consultants/staff/money etc. But Karl's people say otherwise...and this point, I trust Karl on his political strategem. It is not in his interests to make Joe look bad.

A tale of two speeches

Thanks to CSPAN (the internets were overloaded with Joementum's hackers), I was able to keep abreast of the numbers of the Connecticut Senate Primary as they trickled in. A close, tough loss for Lieberman, and a hell of a game plan by the Lamont people.

Lieberman would have won had he not decided to run Indy should he lose, and had he quesnot scaled back on his GOTV. Also, he totally blew off Bridgeport, where DLC ally Gub. candidate Dan Malloy was mayor, and that too could have been the 4 points he needed. It was a high turnout primary and the message was pretty clear: Democrats are tired of Joe.

But I also got to watch Joe and Ned's speeches via C-SPAN. Joe's was very good under the circumstances of losing and demanding a Mulligan. It was obviously drafted way in advance, so Joe was expecting to lose. The theme will be: Washington is too partisan, and even though I have been a senator for 18 years while it got partisan and was unable to stop it, send me back so I can fix it as an "Independant Democrat." It was a load of hogwash, but it was as good a theme as he could come up with.

Ned's speech, by contrast was terrible. First he started out with talking point lines from some of the many rallies he must have been going to the last couple of days. Then he settled down, stopped shouting into the microphone and thanked a couple people. Then he remembered the one scripted bit, a nice classy talk about Joe. He thanked Lieberman for his service and hoped that Joe would come to his senses in a few days and give up on his grudge match. This should have come first. I also liked his tale about CA Rep. Maxine Waters. Revs. Jessie Jackson and Al Sharpton (and Randy Jackson from American Idol's stunt double) stood in the back akwardly, giving those fist high-fives to people like Tom Swain. Al Sharpton is such a tag-a-long. Oh well. Today is the big CT-Dem unity rally, I am looking forward to the awkwardness when they mention or are asked about Joe.

Also, Joe's line that it is "half-time and Lamont is up" reminded me of Joe's "three way tie for Third Place" in 2004. It was just as laughably pathetic. I wonder if people will ask for their money back. That is also what the Netroots should do, call Democrats who gave big to Joe to a) not give him any more and b) ask for a refund.

The last time a sitting senator lost in a primary was 2002, when Bob Smith was ousted by the establishment for being too crazy, running briefly as an indy for president, and having no chance against then NH Gov. Jeanne Shaheen. This one was totally opposite. I didn't give any money to Ned, and I don't plan on doing so now either. The man has hundreds of millions of dollars. But I congratulate my friends in the blogosphere who worked long and hard for this, enjoy it.

Then go examine and challenge those signatures, strip him of his committees, revoke his endorsements, dry up his money, and make him the laughing stock of DC that he deserves to be.

those other primaries

Despite the media coverage, there are other primaries to watch today besides Joe v. Ned...but it sure has been the most fun. I was hoping McKinney would do something stupid to spark more interest, but this time they learned to shut up. But she will probabbly still lose to Hank Johnson, whom I have endorsed. UPDATE: I spoke too soon; McKinney is blaming the police, Diebold

Also the CO-07 congressional race seems to have died down, with DLCer Ed Perlmutter pulling away from the ex-governor's daughter Peggy Lamm.

Michigan has a house race that is the opposite of CT, a hard right winger supported by the Club for Growth challenging a moderate incumbent GOPer. This is a 54% Bush district...but maybe if the nutjob wins, the Democrat can cut into that.

The most interesting number out of the Washington Post poll for me was the extremely low approval number people gave their own congress(wom)man--55%. Usually, people hate congress, but love their congresscritter and then are some how surprised that congress doesn't change. This time, there is a pretty strong anti-incumbent mood in the country, the 55% is the lowest since (you guessed it) 1994. So maybe lots of congress critters will be working on K street this fall. The fact that a plurality, 49 to 34, think Democrats will do a better job on the war on terrorism (and a solid majority think Democrats will do a better job on Iraq) is also key. Seems like people are ready for a change.

To me this is 1992 all over again. The Dems had their chance to change (after all, lots of incumbents lost in 1992) but they didn't change enough, plus they were pissed at Clinton, and that is why 1994 happened. So if the GOP survives 2006 with majorities and doesn't change their ways dramatically, 2008 will be a big year for Democrats. Likewise, if Democrats get control of congress and go back to their late 80s early 90s ways, 2008 will be a year of reckoning for them as well.