Tuesday, June 25, 2013
For just £2 you can stop the Arctic from melting!
Anthony Watts has up an amusing mailout that he received from some Warmist fraudsters who are trying to get their slice of the lucrative climate action. And how are they going to use all those £2 donations? They are going to use the money to "blast out of the gate".
I was not sure what that exactly meant but I found a video that shows it. Watch carefully and you will see it. Turn up your sound. What a blast!
I think that summarizes Warmists pretty well.
A lot more than 1,000 words
Dr. John Christy participated in a conference on global warming last month, and presented some power points that make several points with respect to the ongoing climate debate. All of these observations will be familiar to Power Line readers, but Dr. Christy’s visuals are effective. You can view the power point slides here, and the accompanying text here. The following are some of Christy’s slides.
Tornadoes are not becoming more frequent. On the contrary:
Snow cover in the northern hemisphere, where the most plausible claims of warming have been made, is not diminishing:
In the U.S., the climate is getting neither wetter nor dryer:
High temperature records are not being set with unusual frequency:
The climate models that are the only basis for warming alarmism are refuted by observation, and therefore are simply wrong:
And, finally, even if the U.S. were to adopt unrealistically harsh measures to restrict carbon output by impoverishing Americans, the effect on the Earth’s climate–assuming the models are right–would be close to zero:
Global warming alarmism is, in my opinion, the worst scientific fraud in world history.
SOURCE
Obama's Climate Plans Face Yearslong Fight
When President Barack Obama lays out plans to tackle climate change in a speech Tuesday, including the first effort to curb greenhouse-gas emissions from existing power plants, he will unleash a yearslong battle that has little assurance of being resolved during his time in office.
The president has called climate change a "legacy issue," and his speech may head off a backlash from environmentalists should his administration approve the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada. But the address is unlikely to blunt criticism of Mr. Obama's approach from the left or the right.
He is set to propose a host of measures to help lower emissions of gases that climate scientists say contribute to climate change. These include ways to boost energy efficiency, promote cleaner energy and rein in emissions from the existing fleet of power plants, according to people briefed on the speech.
In a video released by the White House over the weekend, Mr. Obama said he would give his vision for a "national plan to reduce carbon pollution, prepare our country for the impacts of climate change and lead global efforts to fight it." Mr. Obama said earlier this year in his State of the Union address that he would use executive authority to fight climate change if Congress didn't act.
Rep. Henry Waxman (D., Calif.), the top Democrat on the House Energy and Commerce Committee, said, "It is important for the president to act because the Congress is still denying the science and is not about to pass any legislation."
Industry has warned that tough new guidelines could lead to the retirement of a large number of coal-fired power plants, which could raise questions about electricity reliability. Many utility executives also say that new rules, by knocking relatively cheap coal off the grid, will lead to higher electricity prices that will disproportionately affect lower-income families.
Tom Kuhn, president of the Edison Electric Institute, said the electric-power industry "has long understood the importance of addressing climate change," and has been working for years to clean up the industry. Of the prospective new rules, he said his trade group will be "considering whether they mesh well with this ongoing transition, contain achievable compliance limits and deadlines, and minimize costs to customers."
Environmentalists were cheered by the prospect that Mr. Obama will tackle power-plant emissions. Frances Beinecke, the head of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said the power sector could cut its emissions by about one-quarter with this approach, meaning the U.S. could cut its total emissions by 10%.
The rules are almost certain to bring legal challenges, but even without that the process is lengthy. The Environmental Protection Agency must first complete rules for new power plants, which have been in the works since 2011. In draft form, those rules essentially blocked the construction of new coal-fired plants. Once the draft rules are finished, environmental lawyers say, the EPA would need until at least late 2014 to propose and make final rules for existing plants.
What's more, the rules would be merely guidelines for states to draw up their own plans for restricting greenhouse gases. Allowing a year for that—plus more time for the EPA to rewrite state plans if it is dissatisfied with them—means the process could easily stretch out to the end of Mr. Obama's second term and beyond.
In much the same way that states have opted out of some parts of Mr. Obama's health-care law, states that have a rationale to resist new power-plant guidelines could push back against them, said Jeff Holmstead, a former top EPA official under President George W. Bush and now a partner at Bracewell & Giuliani LLP.
"EPA's guidelines have no legal effect on any particular plant, and they don't really legally bind the states," Mr. Holmstead said.
Environmental groups say EPA guidelines could give states a variety of ways to lower power-sector emissions, including energy efficiency, more renewable energy, and more efficient plants.
Environmentalists have been pressing Mr. Obama to target coal-fired power plants. Those calls have gained in urgency in recent months as an uptick in natural-gas prices has led to a revival of coal use in power generation.
Republicans say any discussion of rules for existing plants is premature because the new standards aren't complete. During confirmation hearings for Gina McCarthy, an EPA official nominated to lead the agency, Sen. David Vitter (R., La.) pressed her on this point, and Ms. McCarthy responded in writing, "EPA is not currently developing any existing source GHG [greenhouse gases] regulations for power plants."
In light of such comments, Mr. Obama is expected to avoid specifics when discussing his vision for existing power plants, but he is still hoping to assuage environmentalists who fear the president may be planning to approve the Keystone pipeline.
Tom Steyer, a wealthy investor and a leader of the anti-Keystone movement, said if that is the bargain the president is offering, environmentalists wouldn't accept it. Environmental groups "are getting something that they were always going to get anyway" on power plants, Mr. Steyer said.
SOURCE
Bureaucracy standing in the way of cheaper bread
Researchers in Britain have announced the development of a new strain of wheat that early reports suggest produce 30 percent greater yields than those currently in use.
Developed by the Cambridge-based National Institute of Agricultural Botany, the new strain came about as researchers mixed "ancient" seeds (from seed banks) with those from the modern era. Importantly, the process did not involve genetic modification as such grains have been banned in many countries. Instead, the researchers cross-bred samples and used embryo transfer techniques to bring about a wholly new strain of wheat. Its developers say that thus far, they've seen yield increase of up to 30 percent. They add that the new strain is hardier as well—able to stand up to pests and drought better than conventional wheat varieties.
The news comes as welcome relief to people in Britain as bad weather has led to less wheat production than normal, giving way to its importation for the first time in over a decade. More importantly, an increased wheat yield has become crucial as the world population continues to grow. Recent estimates suggest that as many as a fifth of all calories consumed by people worldwide, come from wheat. In contrast, scientists have noted that the last 15 years have seen little increase in wheat yields. Some scientists have suggested that wheat yields will have to double over the next half-century to keep ahead of population growth. Put another way, the researchers claim that the world will have to produce more wheat over the next 50 years than has been produced over the past 10,000 years in order to keep ahead of demand.
Wheat evolved from goat grasses co-incidentally or not, around the same time as people were beginning to learn to grow their own food, the research team notes, most likely in the Middle East. Since that time, humans have reduced the varieties of wheat that are grown, resulting in an erosion of the plant's natural diversity. Cross breeding modern strains with much older samples that have been preserved in seed banks will bring back some of that diversity, and in this case, hopefully lead to increased yields.
Unfortunately because of governmental regulations, the new wheat strain can't be grown commercially in Britain for five years. That time interval will give scientists and others time to more thoroughly investigate the new strain to ascertain if the initial findings hold
SOURCE
Where's that long awaited drought?
Now it's Canada's turn for flooding
A state of emergency remains in the western Canadian city of Calgary, after some of the worst flooding to hit the region in a century.
Officials in Alberta province have now ordered at least 75,000 people to evacuate their homes.
At least three people have been killed and one is missing after his canoe overturned in floodwaters.
The downtown area of Calgary resembles a lake and has been declared off limits. It will remain so until at least the middle of next week.
There is no electricity, railway tracks have been lifted and hundreds of houses are partially submerged.
Communities to the south and east of Calgary were on high alert as floodwaters moved across the region.
Downstream, the city of Medicine Hat, was bracing for the surge and 10,000 people there were ordered to leave.
Authorities in Calgary expect water levels to drop in the coming days, but the Bow River is still flowing at around five times its normal rate.
With rainfall easing, a few residents began returning to damaged homes and authorities were hopeful that the worst might be over.
The city's mayor, Naheed Nenshi, who was visibly tired after two days of crisis management, told residents: "If you want to help your city, the best thing you can do is stay home."
The floods followed about 36 hours of unusually heavy rainfall - some communities received six months of their normal rainfall in under two days.
They are shaping up to be significantly worse than the floods of 2005.
A spokesman for Imperial Oil, Canada's second-largest producer and refiner, said the company was working on plans to maintain essential operations, including allowing employees to work from other locations.
It was not clear when trading in Canadian crude oil would resume after little if any occurred on Friday.
Shorcan Energy Brokers, which provides live prices for many Canadian crude grades, operated out of Toronto on Friday rather than Calgary, although no trades in Western Canada Select heavy blend or light synthetic crude took place.
Net Energy Inc, the other main Calgary crude broker, was closed on Friday and no trading took place.
The flooding has affected the grounds of the Calgary Stampede, an annual extravaganza of cows, cowboys and horses scheduled to start on July 5.
Mr Nenshi insisted the rodeo would go ahead.
"We're Calgarians. We'll make it work," he said. It may look different, but the show will go on."
SOURCE
Britain's weather prophets should be chucked in the deep end
Homeowners lumbered with useless swimming pools know precisely who they should blame -- says Boris Johnson, the inimitable Mayor of London
The great thing about flying into London is that you get bags of time to see the countryside below. The congestion at Heathrow is so bad that many passengers circle above the Home Counties for half an hour, allowing themselves to be penetrated by the splendours of Surrey while their planes spew thousands of tons of CO2 into the upper air.
You can observe the way we live in the peri-urban world: the golf courses, the landfill sites, the pleasant whorls of detached houses; and over time the embourgeoisement of the British people has added an amenity that the Romans first introduced to this island. Look down on southern England, and you see the little winking ultramarine oblongs of the swimming pools – perhaps the greatest triumph of hope over experience in the history of English domestic architecture.
In Roman times, a swimming pool was a sign of taste, style and affluence, and in some of the biggest Romano-British villas you can see where Roman nobs frolicked and enjoyed the pleasures of water and nakedness. These days it would be fair to say that a swimming pool is a luxury – but not an unheard-of luxury. In the past 10 years there have been plenty of middle-class punters who have decided that they want a touch of Beverly Hills about their homes – and I know why they did it. They thought it would be nice for the kids and the grandchildren. They thought it might conceivably add to the value of their homes. In their secret hearts they hoped, forgivably, that it might provoke the envy of their neighbours.
But then there was an extra spur – the new and unanswerable imperative to find a way of keeping wet and cool. For more than 20 years now, we have been told that this country was going to get hotter and hotter and hotter, and that global warming was going to change our climate in a fundamental way. Do you remember that? We were told that Britain was going to have short, wet winters and long, roasting summers. It was going to be like 1976 all over again, with streakers at Lord’s and your Mr Whippy melting before you could even lick it, and Hyde Park scorched into a mini Kalahari.
They said we were never going to have snow again, and that we should prepare for southern England to turn gradually into a Mediterranean world. There were going to be olive groves in the Weald of Kent, and the whole place was going to be so generally broiling in summer that no one would be able to move between noon and 4pm, after which people would come out to play boules and sip pastis, to the whine of a mandolin, in the dusty square that had once been a village green.
That’s what they said: the BBC, and all the respectable meteorologists – and I reckon there were tens of thousands of people who took these prophecies entirely seriously. Omigod, they said to themselves, we are all going to fry. The only answer was to build a source of permanent refreshment – and so they did. They saved up, and they remortgaged, and they got in the diggers. They moved huge cuboids of earth and used them to create curious berms at the bottom of the garden, and then they lined these trenches with tiles (jolly expensive) or with a kind of blue plastic sheeting (virtually indistinguishable and much cheaper) and then they filled these holes with thousands of gallons of water that circulated endlessly by an unintelligible process known only to the people who had installed it but who seemed unfortunately to have gone bust.
They fought gallantly but in vain against the green slime, and to understand the balance of chemicals that the pool required; and they watched baffled as it oscillated – now choking with vegetation, now a glorified sheep dip of eye-stinging acid. Year after year they summoned up their courage, choked back their nausea and fished out the dead mice and the pallid corpses of worms bleached white by the chlorine. They sieved for leaves; they flipped out bugs with their hands; and all the while they were comforted with the thought that it was a sound investment.
They imagined the poolside parties they would have when the warming really kicked in: the barbecues; the bikinis; the pina coladas. They saw themselves on their lilos talking to their brokers on their mobile phones or getting up early on a glorious summer day and diving in unclothed when no one else was around. They thought they were doing the sensible thing and getting ready for a Californian lifestyle – and they were fools! Fools who believed that the global warming soothsayers really meant what they said or that they had a clue what the weather would be in the next 10 years.
I hope I don’t need to tell you that we have not experienced a Mediterranean climate – not since they started to tell us to expect it. On the contrary, we have had some pretty long and miserable winters – including the last one, in which I saw snow settle in London on four separate occasions – and our summer is at risk of becoming a bit of a farce. As I write these words, I am looking out yet again at lowering grey clouds, in what should be the peachiest time of year – and now these so-called weather forecasters and climate change buffs have the unbelievable effrontery to announce that they got it all wrong. They now think that we won’t have 10 years of blistering summer heat; on the contrary, it is apparently going to be 10 years of cold and wet.
It is outrageous. Think of all those honest hard-working folk who have sunk their resources into a pool, only to find they use it only a couple of times a summer, and even then the wind-chill is so bad that the swimmers get goosebumps as soon as they emerge. I am generally against the compensation culture, but in my mind’s eye I see a class action: aggrieved English pool-owners against the global warming prophets and the erroneous meteorologists who have, frankly, been taking the piscine.
SOURCE
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For more postings from me, see DISSECTING LEFTISM, TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, IMMIGRATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here.
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Monday, June 24, 2013
Greedy Africans Are Starving Our Cars
“You’ve heard of Live Aid? Well, this is Drive Aid,” an ardent young man says, as he approaches London pedestrians. “Greedy people in developing nations are eating huge amounts of food that could easily be turned into biofuel to power our cars. African acreage the size of Belgium is being used for food, and we’re saying it should go to cars here in the UK. Can we have your support?”
Londoners reacted with disbelief and outrage, the ActionAid UK video shows, and refused to sign his mock petition. The amusing stunt drove home a vital point: Biofuel programs are turning food into fuel, converting cropland into fuel production sites, and disrupting food supplies for hungry people worldwide. The misguided programs are having serious environmental consequences, as well.
Why, then, can’t politicians, bureaucrats and environmentalists display the common sense exhibited by London’s citizenry? Why did President Obama tell Africans (many of whom are malnourished) in July 2009 that they should refrain from using “dirty” fossil fuels and use their “bountiful” biofuel and other renewable energy resources, instead? When will Congress pull the plug on Renewable Fuel Standards?
Ethanol and other biofuels might have made some sense when Congress passed the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and established mandates (or “standards”) requiring that refiners and consumer purchase large quantities of ethanol and other biofuels. Back then, despite growing evidence to the contrary, many people thought we were running out of oil and gas, and believed manmade global warming threatened the planet. But this is not 2005. Those rationales are no longer persuasive.
The hydraulic fracturing revolution has obliterated the Club of Rome “peak oil” notion that we are rapidly exhausting the world’s petroleum. Climategate and other IPCC scandals demonstrated that the “science” behind climate cataclysm claims is conjectural, manipulated and even fraudulent. And actual observations of temperatures, storms, droughts, sea levels and Arctic ice have refused to cooperate with computer models and Hansen-Gore-EPA-IPCC disaster scenarios.
In fact, biofuels and Renewable Fuel Standards cannot be justified on any grounds.
The United States is using 40 million acres of cropland (Iowa plus New Jersey) and 45% of its corn crop to produce 14 billion gallons of ethanol annually. This amount of corn could feed some 570 million people, out of the 1.2 billion who still struggle to survive on $1.25 per day.
This corn-centric agriculture is displacing wheat and other crops, dramatically increasing grain and food prices, and keeping land under cultivation that would otherwise be returned to wildlife habitat. It requires millions of pounds of insecticides, billions of pounds of fertilizer, vast amounts of petroleum-based energy, and billions of gallons of water – to produce a fuel that gets one-third less mileage per gallon than gasoline and achieves no overall reduction in greenhouse gas emissions.
Ethanol mandates have caused US corn prices to rocket from $1.96 per average bushel in 2005 to as much as $7.50 in autumn 2012 and $6.68 in June 2013. Corn growers and ethanol makers get rich. However, soaring corn prices mean beef, pork, poultry, egg and fish producers pay more for corn-based feed; grocery manufacturers pay more for corn, meat, fish and corn syrup; families pay more for everything on their dinner table; and starving Africans go hungry because aid agencies cannot buy as much food.
By 2022, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (amending the 2005 law) requires 15 billion gallons of corn-based ethanol and 21 billion gallons of cellulosic and other non-corn-based biofuels. That will monumentally worsen all these problems.
Equally insane, the Environmental Protection Agency’s draft rule for 2013 required that refiners purchase 14 million gallons of cellulosic biofuels. There’s a teensy problem: the fuel doesn’t exist. A mere 4,900 gallons were produced in March, and zero the other months. So companies are forced to buy fantasy fuel, fined big bucks if they do not, and punished if they get conned into buying fraudulent “renewable fuel credits” from “socially responsible” companies like Clean Green Fuel, Absolute Fuels and Green Diesel.
Ethanol collects water, which can result in engine stalls. It corrodes plastic, rubber and soft metal parts. Pre-2001 car engines, parts and systems may not be able to handle E15 fuel blends (15% ethanol, 85% gasoline), adversely affecting engine, fuel pump and sensor durability. Older cars, motorcycles and boats fueled with E15 could conk out in dangerously inopportune places; at the very least they could require costly engine repairs. Lawn mowers and other gasoline-powered equipment are equally susceptible.
On a global scale, the biofuels frenzy is diverting millions of acres of farmland from food crops, converting millions of acres of rainforest and other wildlife habitat into farmland, and employing billions of gallons of water, to produce corn, jatropha, palm oil and other crops for use in producing politically correct biodiesel and other biofuels.
To top off this seemingly inexhaustible list of policy idiocies, all this ethanol and other biofuel could easily be replaced with newly abundant oil and gas supplies. Amazing new seismic, deepwater, deep drilling, hydraulic fracturing and other technologies have led to discoveries of huge new reserves of oil and natural gas – and enabled companies to extract far more petroleum from reservoirs once thought to have been depleted.
That means we can now get vastly more energy from far less land; with far fewer impacts on environmental quality, biodiversity and endangered species; and with none of the nasty effects on food supplies, food prices and world hunger that biofuel lunacy entails.
We could do that – if radical greens in the Obama Administration, United Nations and eco pressure groups would end their ideological opposition to leasing, drilling, fracking, Outer Continental Shelf and Arctic National Wildlife Refuge development, Canadian oil sands, the Keystone pipeline and countless other projects. We could do so, if they would stop behaving like environmentalist Bull Connors, arrogantly blocking the doors to human and civil rights progress.
This colossal global biofuels industry exists only because resource depletion and climate Armageddon ideologies do not die easily – and because politicians lavish government mandates and billions of dollars in taxpayer and consumer subsidies on firms that have persuasive lobbyists and reliable track records for channeling millions of those dollars back to the politicians who keep the racket going.
The ActionAid UK video has lent some good British gallows humor to a serious issue. As another well-known Brit might say, it is time rein in a global SPECTRE that has wreaked too much human and environmental havoc.
To get that long overdue effort underway, Congress needs to amend the 2005 Energy Policy Act, eliminate the Renewable Fuel Standards and end the taxpayer subsidies.
A few thousand farmers and ethanol makers will undoubtedly feel some pain. A few hundred politicians will have less money in their reelection coffers. However, countless wild creatures will breathe much easier in their newly safe natural habitats – and millions of families will enjoy a new birth of freedom, a new wave of economic opportunity, and welcome relief from hunger and malnutrition.
SOURCE
Will California finally choose greenbacks over Green ideology?
By Marita Noon
If there is any place the gang Green can expect to get its way, it would surely be California. The state has the highest renewable energy standards in the country, the legislature is currently dominated by a liberal supermajority, and Governor Jerry Brown’s environmental record runs deep.
When the Energy Information Agency reported that California’s Monterey Shale potentially contains more than 15 billion barrels of oil — a supply three times greater than North Dakota’s Bakken and the Texas Eagle Ford formations — environmental groups ratcheted up their efforts to keep the resource in the ground. The weapon of choice? Demonize the technology that allows the oil and gas to be released from the sedimentary rock: hydraulic fracturing — commonly called “fracking.”
California’s legislature had nearly a dozen different bills designed to impede, restrict, or ban fracking. With lawmakers on their side, environmentalists grew cocky. When the bills made it out of committee, Patrick Sullivan, of the anti-fracking group Center for Biological Diversity, claimed: “There’s huge momentum in the legislature to halt this dangerous practice.”
Imagine their shock when the rank and file Democrats revolted and defeated AB1323, 37-24 — with 12 Democrats voting with 25 Republicans. Another 18 abstained. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), “It’s a good bet they were ‘no’ votes who didn’t want to publicly cross their leadership.” The WSJ called the vote: “a rare rout for The Sierra Club and other greens.”
It seems that California’s “politicians are beginning to wonder if cultivating greenie obsessions has been worth stopping economic development,” writes Mark Whittington for Yahoo.com. “The environmental lobby … has seen the limit of its power.”
This is especially interesting in light of the columns I’ve been writing lately. Remember Environmentalists Endangered and, more recently, Renewable Energy’s Reversal of Fortune? Then, last week, in my column The Sierra Club Exposed, I referenced a Sierra Club director who claims that Latino voters care more about conservation than energy drilling.
Yet, who are the Democrats who split with their party to block the fracking bans that would “throw thousands of Californians out of work?” Those representing poor and minority areas with unemployment rates of 12 percent or more. Six of the seven black and most of the Latino assembly Democrats refused to vote for the ban, while wealthy, mostly white Democratic coastal districts voted for it. Whittington says the vote is “dividing the state’s all powerful Democratic party, pitting rich against poor, white against minorities and coastal California against central California… powerful rich elites who have pushed an environmentalist agenda at the expense of the common people.”
Fracking has been used in California for 60 years, and is used in about a third of California’s active wells. Since the start of 2011, 974 California wells have been fracked. Catherine Reheis-Boyd, President of the Western States Petroleum Association, asserts: “California has never recorded a single documented instance of fracking wastewater leaking out and contaminating the surrounding groundwater supply.” Meanwhile, environmentalists, such as Adam Snow of Food and Water Watch claim “there’s no safe way to frack.”
Fracking foes want a complete ban. But, California can’t afford not to frack.
The Global Energy Network & Price School of Public Policy, the University of Southern California, and The Communications Institute recently collaborated on a study called “Powering California: The Monterey Shale & California’s Economic Future.” The study found that development of oil from the Monterey Shale using hydraulic fracturing and other recovery technologies could result in:
* The creation of 512,000 to 2.8 million new jobs,
* Personal income growth of $40.6 billion to $222.3 billion,
* Additional local and state government revenues from $4.5 billion to $24.6 billion, and
* An increase in state GDP by 2.6 percent to 14.3 percent on a per-person basis.
In a state with $167.9 billion in long term liabilities — not counting pensions and retiree health benefits, those numbers can’t be ignored. Fresno Assemblyman Jim Patterson wants to “unleash this magnificent potential for jobs.”
Apparently, Democrats, even with a supermajority, have accepted defeat on a fracking ban and are now moving toward taxes. A driving force in California environmentalism, State Senator Noreen Evans (D-Santa Rosa), author of SB 241 — which would impose a tax on harvesting oil and gas — says: “California is poised to allow fracking on a monumental scale in the Monterey Shale, and if we don’t enact an oil severance prior to the time we do that, then we’re allowing … California’s resources to be extracted without taxing it.”
It is easy to see where lawmakers like Evans are going. Texas has no state income tax, but the state does tax oil and natural gas:
* Oil production tax: 4.6 percent (0.046) of the market value of oil.
* Regulatory Tax: 3/16 of a cent ($0.001875) per barrel.
* Regulatory Fee: 5/16 of a cent ($0.003125) per barrel for report periods prior to September 2001. For report periods September 2001 and later, 5/8 of a cent ($0.00625) per barrel Reduced Oil Production Tax Rates for Certified Exemptions:
* Enhanced Oil Recovery Exemption (EOR) 2.3 percent (0.023) of market value of oil; Two Year Inactive Well Exemptions 0.0 percent (0.000) of market value of oil.
With a potential of more than 15 billion barrels of oil in the Monterey shale, saying no to fracking means saying no to California’s economic salvation.
No wonder Governor Brown has yet to take a position on fracking. In fact, he sounds like he is willing to abandon his solid Green credentials — angering environmentalists who are staging protests outside his office. Like the Sierra Club pushing President Obama to use his executive order pen to designate national monuments and block oil and gas development, California’s Greens are demanding that Brown short-circuit the democratic process and ban fracking. The Center for Biological Diversity’s Rose Braz claims: “Fracking pollution threatens our air and water and Gov. Brown’s legacy as an environmental leader.”
The Green state is going brown.
In March, Gov. Brown said: “The fossil fuel deposits in California are incredible, the potential is extraordinary. But between now and development lies a lot of questions that need to be answered.” Last month, he seemed to move even closer to supporting fracking: “This is not about just saying, ideologically, yea or nay. It’s about looking at what could be a fabulous opportunity. . . . And if you remember about oil drilling, oil drilling in Long Beach, which was really pioneered I think when my father was governor, poured I don’t know how many billions into higher education.”
California Senate Republican Leader Bob Huff supports developing the Monterey Shale. “While everyone is giddy about the on-time budget just passed, it does not do anything to pay down the state’s unfunded pension and health care system for state employees. If we had the revenues from Monterey Shale we could pay down that debt and truly build a high class education system to continue what Governor Brown’s father began.”
While Brown doesn’t take the doom-and-gloomers all too seriously, most of the state sees through the fearmongering, too. A recent poll found that 60 percent of Californians were in favor of properly regulated hydraulic fracturing. Only 30 percent said they prefer a ban. Generally Democrats opposed fracking while Republicans support it; those on the coast and in the San Francisco Bay area oppose it while support was highest in the central valley and in Southern California counties outside of Los Angeles. Support increased if it could be shown that fracking would reduce energy and gasoline prices. Dan Schnur, director of USC’s Unruh Institute of Politics, states: “It’s clear that a majority of voters is comfortable with the procedure, as long as they believe appropriate regulation is in place.”
Of the flurry of bills aimed at either explicit or de facto moratoria on fracking, one did make it out of the Senate after the author agreed to remove the fracking moratorium provision to get the bill to the Assembly. SB 4 originally called for comprehensive regulations and a fracking moratorium until January 1, 2015 — by which time the guidelines would be in place. The bill’s author, Senator Fran Pavley (D-Agoura Hills) — usually an environmentalist ally, describes the bill: “This is not a bill to ban, prohibit or regulate hydraulic fracturing. It’s to provide transparency to the public.”
Investors are now buying up property in the regions surrounding the Monterey Shale, knowing that development will mean economic recovery and a need for new housing and services. The gang Green is losing to greenbacks.
Once again, energy could make California great.
SOURCE
Obama's Enormous Climate Lies
By Alan Caruba
Putting aside Obama’s intention to further reduce our nuclear arsenal as articulated in his June 19 speech in Berlin, he has solidified his position as the World’s Greatest Liar with his statements about climate change, aka global warming, which he called “the global threat of our time.”
Let us stipulate that the global threat of our time is the rise of Islamic fanaticism in its pursuit of a worldwide caliphate. It threatens some six billion of the world’s population that represent other faiths. It is on the rise throughout the Middle East and into northern Africa’s Maghreb. It has cells in South America and it threatens the lives of millions of Americans if the jihadists acquire nuclear arms.
Regarding the President’s call for nuclear disarmament, veteran journalist Bill Gertz observed that “The president is using a new term to support his earlier disarmament call back in 2009 in Prague, and it’s called ‘peace with justice’ which has a very Marxist-Leninist ring to it. All the rhetoric of the communist groups around refer to peace with justice, (and) now the president has employed it for the first time.”
Obama continues to conjure up global warming despite overwhelming evidence that it does not exist. Dubbed “climategate”, revelations in 2009 made clear that a small group within the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were deliberately falsifying their climate models.
There is nothing that humans can or should do regarding the Earth’s climate. It is a force that is so vast and powerful that calls for renewable energy, energy conservation, and a “carbon tax” on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are utterly false, a danger to human life, a threat to global economic development, and the work of scoundrels and charlatans.
At present, there has been no warming for almost seventeen years. The Earth is in a natural cooling cycle as the result of another natural cycle, the reduction of the Sun’s radiation that warms the Earth.
“For the grim alternative affects all nations,” said Obama. “More severe storms, more famine and floods, new waves of refugees, coastlines that vanish, oceans that rise.”
The President is lying!
In his 2008 speech in Chicago’s Grant Park following his election, Obama said, “It's been a long time coming, but tonight, because of what we did on this day, in this election, at this defining moment, change has come to America”
The change has been, not just the election of the first black American as president, but the first president to consistently lie to Americans. The change he has wrought in his first term and is seeking to bring about in his second includes the largest seizure and nationalization of the American health system in our history and a “stimulus” that wasted billions of dollars that accomplished nothing to reduce unemployment and avoid economic stagnation.
Obama’s promise of change has reduced America’s standing in the world as the protector of peace and his decisions have helped advance the spread of the Islamic jihad.
It has produced a war on coal, the energy resource that, prior to his taking office, provided fifty percent of all the electricity Americans use every day. It has reduced access to oil and natural gas on federal lands. Obama will pursue more action in the name of climate change in the form of more regulation of power plants, new subsidies for so-called clean energy, and other big, futile, farcical, and costly government programs
Obama’s administration has given us scandals from “Fast and Furious” to the failure to come to the aid of our ambassador to Libya in Benghazi; the revelation that the IRS engaged in a deliberate program against Tea Party, patriot groups, and even Jewish organizations. It has reduced and degraded the U.S. military with programs to permit homosexuals to serve and women to be in combat units. An outbreak of sexual assaults—26,000 and most men-on-men—in the military has resulted.
In Berlin, the President said, “Our generation must move towards a global compact to confront a changing climate before it is too late, that is our job; that is our task.”
On June 25, he will announce new executive orders to implement “climate change” mandates in the face of congressional resistance. He says it will be “my vision for where I believe we need to go—a national plan to reduce carbon pollution, prepare our country for the impacts of climate change, and lead global efforts to fight it.”
Carbon dioxide is not “pollution”; it is, along with oxygen, the other gas most vital to all life on Earth.
SOURCE
Don't take air conditioning for granted
Rachel Lucas reports from Italy
I’ve mentioned before we have no air conditioning because this is Italy and either A/C just doesn’t exist or if it does, you use it at your own financial risk to the tune of about 600 euros a month. Well in the last week or so, it’s reached that time of year that this means I AM IN HELL PLEASE KILL ME GOD. You think I’m being dramatic, you turn off your A/C next time it’s 92 degrees in your town, and also move to a country where there are no air-conditioned stores or restaurants for you to go hang out in. Oh and also you don’t have a car to drive anywhere in air conditioned bliss; you have to walk everywhere, including the grocery store. And then you gotta haul all that shit back on foot to your no-air-conditioning apartment. You could take public transportation but guess what, even if it advertises itself as “cooled”, it certainly is not, and you get to spend that ride standing squashed up against hundreds of other sweaty, cranky individuals.
La dolce vita, I keep hearing this called.
This is the life progressives envision for America, as well.
Energy – electrical and gasoline – used to be cheap in America. Heat in winter and cooling in the summer was available to almost everybody. And it could be again, but for the lying con artists pretending that simple human comfort is damaging the planet.
You’ll note that all of the Ruling Class who preach this gospel have air-conditioned everything, right?
SOURCE
British summers will be as hot and dry as 1976, the Met Office said three years ago... and now they're predicting a soaking decade
They haven't got a clue
The Met Office has been accused of damaging the UK’s tourism industry over its prediction last week that Britain faces the likelihood of a decade of soggy summers – because just three years ago it told us to prepare for repeats of the drought of 1976.
In May 2010 its climate extremes scientist Eleanor Burke warned we would roast in the summer months and be faced with tap water bans.
Yet last week yet another glimpse into the future by Met Office experts and colleagues from leading UK universities suggested rainy summers are on the cards for the foreseeable future.
Three years ago The Met Office said hose pipe bans would be needed because of continually hot and dry summers
Back in 2010, Ms Burke said the nation should brace itself for a repeat of the extraordinary 16-month drought period up to August 1976 when some parts of England suffered 45 days in a row without rain, and temperatures stayed at 90F (32C).
Emphasising the need to expect the worst, Ms Burke said preparations should include ‘designing buildings to cope with the heat, putting in place emergency plans in hospitals and schools, growing heat-resistant crops and (imposing) hose pipe bans’.
Even more recently – in January 2012 – the government’s first Climate Change Risk Assessment, compiled with the help of Met Office scientists, predicted a decrease in summer rainfall over coming decades and sizzling sunshine that would persuade holidaymakers to stay at home rather than head for the Mediterranean.
But last week meteorologists at a Met Office conference into climate change in Exeter said a warmer North Atlantic meant Britain faced a higher chance of wet summers for up to ten years.
Now tourism bosses have accused the experts of driving UK holidaymakers abroad by presenting ‘academic machinations’ as reliable weather predictions.
One even suggested delegates to last week’s conference should be made to bet their pensions on a decade of soggy summers if they were so sure of their claims.
The anger has emerged most strongly in the South West – the most popular holiday-at-home destination for Britons – where tourism leaders say a bad summer forecast wipes out £300million worth of income in Devon and Cornwall alone.
Visit Cornwall head Malcolm Bell, said: ‘I wish that these so-called experts would keep their mouths shut.
‘In recent years the Met Office got the “barbecue summer” wrong, the hosepipe ban wrong – their credibility is shot. So why not just shut up.
‘If you run a campsite or have a seaside business it’s a massive problem. People thinking of a holiday are driven abroad or simply don’t bother.
‘A bad summer forecast brings a five to ten per cent drop in business. That’s a loss of £300million to Devon and Cornwall and a lot of jobs and businesses on the line.
Pictured, a flooded road in Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire
Tourism experts say businesses could lose money after the latest warning about soggy summers. Pictured, a flooded road in Tewkesbury, Gloucestershire
‘Are the forecasters prepared to put their salaries and pensions on that? Somehow I doubt it.’
He added: ‘There is absolutely no certainty in long-range predictions. They are just academic machinations but when they emerge they fuel British paranoia about the weather.’
The North West, Britain’s third most popular domestic holiday destination thanks to the Lake District, is less weather-dependent.
But Ian Stephens, of Cumbria Tourism, said long and medium term forecasts had ‘real potential to damage UK tourism’.
‘Meteorological organisations need to work with the tourism industry to better understand how weather influences the tourism decision-making process.’
Last night a Met Office spokesman said: ‘New research suggests long-term Atlantic currents may be playing an important role in wet summers.
‘These are understood to operate on cycles of a decade or more, and it appears we are well into the “wet” phase of this cycle. That does not mean every summer will be a washout.
‘We have worked with the tourism industry to provide detailed forecasts for 5,000 resorts, beaches and attractions so visitors can plan their day out with confidence and make the most of the great British weather come rain or shine.’
SOURCE
Cheap Energy: A Human Right Killed By Bad Obama Math
A few months ago, in his State of the Union address, President Obama proudly pledged to tackle climate change—despite opposition from Republicans. To date, precious little action to combat climate change has been seen from the White House—which pleases most Republicans and angers the left.
Environmental activists are some of Obama’s most ardent supporters, but they are frustrated and losing patience with the president. He hasn’t been definitive on killing the Keystone pipeline; as the Washington Post reports, he’s “fallen back from the broad clean energy agenda he envisioned when he first took office”—even to the point of supporting natural gas exploration and recently approving Liquefied Natural Gas export terminals that will increase demand by shipping US natural gas to foreign markets; and he seems to have acquiesced to a fossil fuel future by proposing adaptations to make “coastal communities more resistant to increasingly severe storms and floods.”
The environmental community wants to see bold steps toward a fossil-fuel free future.
Michael Brune, executive director for the Sierra Club, groused: “On climate, we’re worse off than we were when the president’s second term started.”
Frances Beinecke, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), is calling on the president to “outline exactly how he plans to combat global warming by 2016.”
In a new campaign being launched by the NRDC, filmmaker Robert Redford states: “Four months ago, President Obama spoke of our obligations to combat climate change, saying failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.” Ads from the NRDC feature Redford challenging Obama to live up to the “courage of his convictions.”
Even those within his own party are pressuring the president.
Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) has called climate change “the issue of our time.” He believes that Obama should announce the implementation of strong regulatory steps that will “revive this great issue.” Representative Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) recently pushed the president to oppose the pipeline—despite polling that shows the vast majority of the public supports it: “I encouraged him to follow through on the correct policy position, suggesting polling numbers aren’t always in support of smart policy.”
With his base is looking for immediate remedies, his popularity is plunging, and more negative news is hitting the airwaves every day, an announcement—as Whitehouse wants—of “strong regulatory steps” to “revive this great issue” could be advisable. It would give environmentalists the aggressive action they are itching for and divert the discussion from the various scandals plaguing his presidency.
Instead, when the White House made a decision to raise the social cost of carbon emissions by 60%—which will have a costly impact on the economy with wide-ranging implications for everything from power plants to the Keystone pipeline, there were no optics: no fanfare, no press conference, no announcement.
Tucked into a rule about microwave ovens’ efficiency standards (With everything going on in the world, we are worrying about microwave ovens?), is an increase in the figure the government uses to weigh costs and benefits of proposed regulations. The “so-called social cost of carbon,” represents the “approximate losses from global warming such as flood damage and diminished crops.” The Daily Caller describes this social cost of carbon dioxide emissions as “a monetary estimate of the damages caused by carbon emissions” that “all federal agencies must use when formulating regulations.” The White House Office of Management and Budget raised the cost of a metric ton of carbon from the current $23.80 to $38.00 in 2015—which gives the administration “justification to be more aggressive than they otherwise would be,” explained Jeff Holmstead, air quality chief at the Environmental Protection Agency under President George W. Bush.
It seems that this “determination” was intended as appeasement to Obama’s agitated base while not damaging his falling popularity—though it probably fails at both.
Frank Ackerman, an economist at Tufts University who published a book about the economics of global warming calls the social cost of carbon: “the most important number you’ve never heard of.” According to Bloomberg BusinessWeek, he said: “This is a very strange way to make policy about something this important.” And added, “The Obama administration ‘hasn’t always leveled with us about what is happening behind closed doors.’”
Why bury “something this important” in an afternoon announcement about something that is virtually insignificant? The answer, I believe, is found in a small piece of the Washington Post story cited previously. Apparently, the White House’s own research found that when Obama, in his State of the Union speech, “vowed to act on climate change if Congress refused to do so,” a focus group’s “favorability” rating “plummeted.” White House transcripts reveal that Obama knows that “the politics of this are tough.” At an April fund raising event at the San Francisco home of billionaire and environmental activist Tom Steyer, Obama defended his lack of action on climate change: “if you haven’t seen a raise in a decade, if your house is still $25,000, $30,000 underwater … you may be concerned about the temperature of the planet, but it’s probably not rising to your number one concern.”
As a result, his Organizing for America team—“formed to advance the president’s second term agenda”—has been laying the “groundwork with the American public before unveiling a formal climate strategy.” Teasing out the increase in the social cost of carbon was likely part of the strategy, intended to test the waters ahead of the planned climate announcements from the White House. Likewise, his comments in Berlin, where he reintroduced the subject, calling climate change “the global threat of our time.” The next day, headlines read: “Obama to renew emissions push.” It is believed that the new “measures to tackle climate change” will “effectively ban new coal-fired power plants”—to which I add, will effectively ban “cheap electricity.”
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports that US power generation is, once again, using more coal—reversing the trend toward natural gas: “A flood of inexpensive natural gas led to the highest-ever use of that fuel for electricity generation while coal-fired electricity fell to its lowest level in a quarter-century.” Natural gas prices have been creeping higher and have pushed an increased use of coal in attempt to keep electricity costs as low as possible—after all, progressives and career environmentalists Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhous, of the Breakthrough Institute, posit: cheap electricity is a public good and a human right that has saved the forests, produced more food on less land, and lifted incomes.
Wait, wait, wait! Regular readers of my affordable energy advocacy should give pause here. It is not me saying that cheap electricity is a basic human right—though I believe it, it is Shellenberger and Nordhous whose own biographies describe them as “leading global thinkers on energy, climate, security, human development, and politics” and whose book, Breakthrough, has been called “the best thing to happen to environmentalism since Rachel Carson’s Silent Spring.”
In a treatise, that I believe should be required reading for everyone, titled: “Has there been a great progressive reversal? How the left abandoned cheap electricity,” they outline a historic shift that’s taken the left from being champions of the poor to being “developed-world progressives, comfortably ensconced in their own modernity.”
They explain: eighty years ago, “The best forests had been cut down to use as fuel for wood stoves. Soils were being rapidly depleted of nutrients, resulting in falling yields and a desperate search for new croplands. Poor farmers were plagued by malaria and had inadequate medical care. Few had indoor plumbing and even fewer had electricity.” Cheap electricity changed all that and Senator Al Gore Sr. fought for it.
Today, “Environmentalists demand that we make carbon-based energy more expensive” and the left calls it “A threat to the planet and harmful to the poor.” Shellenberger and Nordhous state: “In the name of democracy it now offers the global poor not what they want—cheap electricity—but more of what they don’t want, namely intermittent and expensive power” which “offers the poor no path to the kinds of high-energy lifestyles Western environmentalists take for granted.”
Believers in anthropogenic global warming, they acknowledge that “modernization” does have “side effects,” but they believe that these are problems that can be “dealt with.” They claim that “energy poverty causes more harm to the poor than global warming” and that “modern energy”—a term they use interchangeable with “cheap energy”—“makes the poor vastly less vulnerable to climate impacts.”
Shellenberger and Nordhous close their eye-opening commentary by stating that the 1.3 billion people who lack cheap grid electricity should get it. “It will dramatically improve their lives, reduce deforestation, and make them more resilient to climate impacts. … Any effort worthy of being called progressive, liberal, or environmental, must embrace a high energy planet.”
Their logic is tough to dispute. While I do not agree that global warming is a manmade crisis, I certainly support their conclusions about the importance of cheap energy as a human right and public good.
This whole line of reasoning, begs some questions:
· Why did the left abandon cheap energy? (Remember, in California, it was the rich, white Democrat representatives who voted to ban fracking while the black and Hispanics, in districts in need of jobs, didn’t vote for the ban.)
· Why is the Obama administration willing to make policy that will cause its favorability rating to “plummet,” raise the price of energy, and disproportionately hurt the poor?
· Why does America continue subsidies that emphasize activity rather than outcomes and continue to follow the failed energy policies of socialist Europe?
Your answers to these questions should scare you and bring another question to your mind: How do we stop this and save America?
SOURCE
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For more postings from me, see DISSECTING LEFTISM, TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, IMMIGRATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here.
Preserving the graphics: Graphics hotlinked to this site sometimes have only a short life and if I host graphics with blogspot, the graphics sometimes get shrunk down to illegibility. From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site. See here and here
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Sunday, June 23, 2013
Temperature has been higher at similar levels of CO2 to today
The recent paper below shows that, in the geologic past, summer temperatures were about 10°C warmer than today, even though the concentration of atmospheric CO2 was similar. Which shows that you cannot do exactly what Warmists claim to do: Predict temperature from CO2 levels
Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia
By Julie Brigham-Grette1 et al
Understanding the evolution of Arctic polar climate from the protracted warmth of the middle Pliocene into the earliest glacial cycles in the Northern Hemisphere has been hindered by the lack of continuous, highly resolved Arctic time series. Evidence from Lake El’gygytgyn, in northeast (NE) Arctic Russia, shows that 3.6 to 3.4 million years ago, summer temperatures were ~8°C warmer than today, when the partial pressure of CO2 was ~400 parts per million. Multiproxy evidence suggests extreme warmth and polar amplification during the middle Pliocene, sudden stepped cooling events during the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition, and warmer than present Arctic summers until ~2.2 million years ago, after the onset of Northern Hemispheric glaciation. Our data are consistent with sea-level records and other proxies indicating that Arctic cooling was insufficient to support large-scale ice sheets until the early Pleistocene.
Science 21 June 2013: Vol. 340 no. 6139 pp. 1421-1427
LA Times editorial is straight propaganda: No facts, no reasoning, but some lies
They write as if global warmning is going on -- even though Warmist heavies like Pachauri and Hansen admit it stopped 17 years ago. How do they reconcile that fact with their first sentence below? They do not try. They also point to recent extreme weather events but make to attempt to compare the recent frequency of such events with frequencies in past periods. No mystery why. Dr. Goebbels would be proud of them
Early predictions made by climate scientists — back when much of the nation was still dubious about any kind of greenhouse effect and many denied it existed — are coming true even more quickly than expected. Although no single weather event can be laid at the door of global warming, more extreme weather throughout the nation, such as tornadoes in the Midwest and hurricanes in the Northeast, already is upon us, as are worsening dryness and fire seasons in the West.
Not all of the effects of climate change are expected to be negative. Certain warm-weather crops will grow in states that were once considered too cold, scientists say. But even those will demand adjustments. Farmers who shift from one crop to another, for instance, will be forced to learn new techniques and make new investments in equipment.
All of this requires first admitting reality, then planning for it and investing in the infrastructure needed to protect against the worst effects and take advantage of the new possibilities.
These might be as sweeping as planning out sources of water for the West — including desalination plants and more recycling and required efficiency in water use — or as specific as a community identifying cooled buildings where the elderly and other fragile people can go during prolonged hot spells and providing transportation to get them there. It might also include planning for crop losses and other flood-related damage in the Northeast, where precipitation has increased 67% over the past 50 years, or building levees and drainage.
Expensive? Very. But the price of doing nothing would be far greater. And that's worth remembering when President Obama releases his expected proposal for reducing the carbon footprint, which will almost surely include new restrictions for coal-burning plants, the biggest emitters of greenhouse gases. Adjusting to climate change will require clear thinking and significant investment, but if the nation sticks its collective head in the sand, it will find that sand covered by rising seas.
SOURCE
Obama Readying Emissions Limits on Power PlantsL
President Obama is preparing regulations limiting carbon dioxide emissions from existing power plants, senior officials said Wednesday. The move would be the most consequential climate policy step he could take and one likely to provoke legal challenges from Republicans and some industries.
Electric power plants are the largest single source of global warming pollution in the country, responsible for nearly 40 percent of greenhouse gas emissions. With sweeping climate legislation effectively dead in Congress, the decision on existing power plants — which a 2007 Supreme Court decision gave to the executive branch — has been among the most closely watched of Mr. Obama’s second term.
The administration has already begun steps to restrict climate-altering emissions from any newly built power plants, but imposing carbon standards on the existing utility fleet would be vastly more costly and contentious.
The president is preparing to move soon because rules as complex as those applying to power plants can take years to complete. Experts say that if Mr. Obama hopes to have a new set of greenhouse gas standards for utilities in place before he leaves office he needs to begin before the end of this year.
Heather Zichal, the White House coordinator for energy and climate change, said Wednesday that the president would announce climate policy initiatives in coming weeks. Another official said a presidential address outlining the new policy, which will also include new initiatives on renewable power and energy efficiency, could come as early as next week.
Ms. Zichal said none of the initiatives being considered by the administration required legislative action or new financing from Congress.
In a speech in Berlin on Wednesday, Mr. Obama echoed his assertive talk on climate policy since his re-election, talk that some climate advocates have criticized as going beyond his actions. He said the United States and the world had a moral imperative to take “bold action” to slow the warming of the planet.
“The grim alternative affects all nations — more severe storms, more famine and floods, new waves of refugees, coastlines that vanish, oceans that rise,” Mr. Obama said. “This is the global threat of our time.” He added, “We have to get to work.”
Republicans criticize Mr. Obama’s climate policy as government overreach that is holding back the economy. Some Democrats, including those hawkish about climate action, also worry that tough new standards on power plants could slow job growth and raise energy costs, particularly in places like the industrial Midwest that depend on cheap power from coal.
But administration officials signaled that Mr. Obama had decided the risks from climate change outweighed the potential economic and political costs from taking steps to address it.
“He is serious about making it a second-term priority,” Ms. Zichal said at a forum Wednesday in Washington sponsored by The New Republic magazine. “He knows this is a legacy issue.”
Ms. Zichal suggested that a central part of the administration’s approach to dealing with climate change would be to use the authority given to the Environmental Protection Agency to address climate-altering pollutants from power plants under the Clean Air Act.
“The E.P.A. has been working very hard on rules that focus specifically on greenhouse gases from the coal sector,” she said. “They’re doing a lot of important work in that space.”
She did not specifically mention standards for existing power plants, but other senior officials have said in recent days that Mr. Obama has decided to start work on such regulations.
A 2007 Supreme Court decision gave the E.P.A. authority to regulate greenhouse gases, and it has already done so for vehicles. Environmental advocates said that addressing power plant pollution must be the centerpiece of any serious climate policy.
“To paraphrase Joe Biden, this is a big deal,” said Daniel F. Becker, director of the Safe Climate Campaign, an advocacy organization. “Nothing he can do will cut greenhouse gases more.”
Last year, the E.P.A. proposed greenhouse gas regulations for new power plants that would essentially ban the construction of any additional coal-fired plants. The administration was required to complete that regulation by mid-April, but it missed the deadline in a sign of the pitfalls of such complex rule making. The E.P.A. has not said when it expects to complete the rules.
The timing of the new policy on existing power plants is driven in large part by the timetables the Clean Air Act sets for a major rule-making. The law requires the agency to publish proposed guidelines. States are then required to submit plans for meeting the guidelines, which the agency must review and which the public must be allowed time to comment on.
“All of that takes time, and we’re in a race against time,” said Vickie Patton, general counsel at the Environmental Defense Fund.
Regulation of existing power plants is further complicated by the pending nomination of Gina McCarthy to become E.P.A. administrator. Ms. McCarthy has for the past four years run the agency’s office responsible for enforcing the Clean Air Act.
Senate Republicans are holding up her nomination over unrelated issues. Republicans and industry leaders also worry about her intentions on power plant regulation. In a carefully worded statement, she told committee members during her confirmation proceedings that the agency “is not currently developing” any such regulations.
The administration has been quietly stitching together a suite of global warming policy measures for the president to unveil this summer to make good on promises in his election night acceptance speech, his second Inaugural address and his State of the Union address.
Denis McDonough, the White House chief of staff, and his deputy, Rob Nabors, have regularly met with cabinet secretaries and their deputies to adapt to a changing climate and to propose new measures that do not require Congressional action.
Mr. Obama’s coming speech is also expected to highlight measures that the Department of Energy can take to make appliances and industrial equipment more efficient and to reduce the energy wasted in public and private buildings.
SOURCE
Boehner: Obama’s Plan for Climate Change ‘Absolutely Crazy’
Speaker of the House John Boehner (R-Ohio) became angry when asked about President Barack Obama’s plan to unveil new regulations to combat climate change, saying it is “absolutely crazy.”
At a Capitol Hill press conference on Thursday, Boehner said, “I think this is absolutely crazy!”
“Why would you want to increase the cost of energy and kill more American jobs at a time when the American people are still asking the question, ‘Where are the jobs?’” he said. “Clear enough?”
Obama could release a “sweeping” plan to target carbon emissions as early as next week, and is considering first-ever limits on carbon dioxide from power plants.
According to Heather Zichal, deputy assistant to the president for energy and climate change, the package will target reducing carbon emissions from power plants, more rules for the energy efficiency of appliances, and expanding the development of clean energy on public lands.
“Peace with justice means refusing to condemn our children to a harsher, less hospitable planet,” Obama said on Wednesday. “The effort to slow climate change requires bold action.”
Obama said, “We have to do more” to bring down carbon emissions, and promised, “we will do more.”
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has already proposed new emission standards that will make it “nearly impossible to build a new coal-fired power plant in the United States.”
The EPA rule—which would limit newly built power plants’ carbon dioxide emissions to 1,000 pounds-per-megawatt-hour—has been delayed, but if instituted would result in the shut down of 280 coal-fired generating units, according to a report.
SOURCE
Hydroelectric Power and Renewable Portfolio Standards
Shriek! Dams! They are only efficient source of renewable power but Greenies hate them. But maybe retrofitting existing dams might pass
Several states are taking second looks at the renewable portfolio standards (RPS) they passed in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
An RPS requires utilities to obtain a specified percentage of their power from renewable sources by a certain date. Twenty-two of the 29 states with such mandates have considered changing those laws in the past two years.
States such as Connecticut and Montana have recently amended their RPS mandates by allowing more hydroelectric power to qualify as renewables. Missouri (HB 44), Oregon (SB 121), and Washington (SB 5431) are currently considering similar legislation.
Hydropower generates electricity by harnessing the rechargeable motive power of the water cycle, making it just as much a renewable resource as wind, solar, or biomass. Unlike wind and solar, hydropower is not intermittent, so it requires no fossil fuel backup generators that create greenhouse gas emissions. States that generate a large percentage of their electricity from hydroelectric power, such as Washington and Idaho, have some of the lowest electricity prices in the nation.
Fifty-six percent of U.S. renewable-generated electricity already comes from hydropower, while 28 percent comes from wind and just 1 percent from solar. Opponents say letting hydropower count toward RPS mandates will hurt development of wind and solar, which are significantly more expensive and thus less attractive to producers and consumers. RPS mandates makes electricity more expensive for ratepayers and removes the incentive for renewable energy producers to cut their own costs, inhibiting the rate at which they scale up.
Of the 80,000 dams in the United States, less than 3 percent are used to produce power, presenting an enormous opportunity to expand renewable energy by adding generators or retrofitting existing dams that were built without power-production capability. Market advocates say including all renewable sources in RPS mandates will create competitive pressure on wind and solar to reduce costs and scale up.
If lawmakers want to lower energy costs, encourage innovation, and reduce emissions, they should repeal all mandates and subsidies and create a level playing field for all energy sources. Government should not pick winners and losers, especially in the energy arena. Barring outright repeal of RPS mandates, their negative effects can be reduced by making them more inclusive and flexible.
SOURCE
Researchers in Finland have found a way to combat global warming: Reindeer!
Could Rudolf be the solution in the fight against disastrous global warming?
Researchers at the University of Turku, Finland, have found a way to protect humanity from dangerous global warming - Reindeer!
According to Professor Lauri Oksanen of the University of Turku, grazing by reindeer keep arctic vegetation in check, thus reducing the solar heat absorption that leads to a self-reinforcing cycle of climate change.
Snow cover and mostly barren tundra reflect large portions of the sun's rays. When darker shrubs and trees spring up in arctic areas they absorb more energy, heating up their surroundings and the earth's atmosphere.
Researchers in Finland have now carried out a comparison between an area in Norway where reindeer are not allowed to graze in the summer, and a similar area in Finland where grazing reindeer have kept shrubs and tree from growing.
They have found that the heat radiated by the overgrown area in Norway is at a much higher level.
"The heat difference between what happens there and in the Finnish area during three spring months, March, April and May, would be enough to melt a cubic kilometre of ice. That is no small matter,” explains Professor Lauri Oksanen.
SOURCE
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For more postings from me, see DISSECTING LEFTISM, TONGUE-TIED, EDUCATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL, POLITICAL CORRECTNESS WATCH, FOOD & HEALTH SKEPTIC, AUSTRALIAN POLITICS, IMMIGRATION WATCH INTERNATIONAL and EYE ON BRITAIN. My Home Pages are here or here or here. Email me (John Ray) here.
Preserving the graphics: Graphics hotlinked to this site sometimes have only a short life and if I host graphics with blogspot, the graphics sometimes get shrunk down to illegibility. From January 2011 on, therefore, I have posted a monthly copy of everything on this blog to a separate site where I can host text and graphics together -- which should make the graphics available even if they are no longer coming up on this site. See here and here
Friday, June 21, 2013
Comment on a very hairy Dutchman
Richard Tol is a very skeptical man, an economist and rather blunt, though not as blunt as I am. I am sure we would enjoy drinking schnapps together, or maybe just beer.
But he seems not to have a clue about the type of dispassionate writing required for academic journals. Or perhaps dispassion deserts him when he is discussing fraud.
I am referring to his rebuttal of "Mr 97%" John Cook (2013) a rebuttal which was recently rejected by ERL. ERL would always have found some reason to reject Richard's paper but Richard made it easy for them. His paper was blatantly political and was full of speculation (about "fatigue", for instance). ERL was right to reject it. I would have sent it back for revision, however, as there was a lot of solid data in it that stood by itself as an effective rebuttal of the Cooker. In my days writing for the academic journals I got about 40 critique articles published on politically loaded topics so I think I am a reasonable judge of what is required there.
Anthony Watts has put the paper up so you can judge for yourself. I am rather cross with Richard for spoiling the presentation of his basically sound work. I would encourage him to delete the problem passages I mentioned and resubmit to another journal. Just the first paragraph of his paper would have sufficed as an introduction, for instance. If properly done, the journal editor should not be able to guess the opinions of the author.
And when you have put up some statistics showing that the other guy is a complete fool, you don't say: "This guy is a complete fool". You say: "These discrepancies may be some cause for concern".
UPDATE: I should perhaps have mentioned for the benefit of newcomers to this topic that there have been a lot of comprehensive demolitions of young Mr. Cook's work -- e.g. here -- but getting them into the academic literature is very uphill. No matter what the merits of the piece, journal editors will rarely publish what they do not want to publish.
Nettles not fully grasped in Britain
A speech to the House of Lords by Viscount Ridley
My Lords, I begin by declaring an interest in coal-mining on my family’s property, as detailed in the register, but I shall not be arguing for coal today but for its most prominent rival, gas, in which I have no interest.
I thank my noble friend the Minister for her courtesy in discussing the Bill and welcome the fact that the Government have grasped the nettle of energy policy, especially on the issue of nuclear power, after the deplorable vacuum left by the previous Government. However, I am concerned that we are being asked in the Bill to spend £200 billion, mainly on the wrong technologies, and that we will come to regret that. We are being asked to put in place a system that will guarantee far into the future rich rewards for landowners and capitalists, while eventually doubling the price of electricity and asking people to replace gas with electric space heating. That can only drive more people into fuel poverty.
We have heard a lot about the needs of energy investors and producers. We have not heard enough about consumers. If the industry gets an 8% return on the £200 billion to be spent, just two offshore wind farms or one nuclear plant would be declaring profits similar to what British Gas declares today. That will be an uncomfortable position for the Government of the day.
The Bill is a dash for wood and wind —two medieval technologies —and it is twice as big as the dash for gas of the 1990s. Between 6 and 9 gigawatts will have to be built a year for the next 16 years, compared with 2 gigawatts a year during the dash for gas. I am not sure it can be done, let alone affordably. In the case of biomass, the only way we can source enough is by felling trees overseas. As the noble Lord, Lord Berkeley, said, Drax will soon be taking more than 40 trains a day of wood pellets from North America. That is not energy security.
Under the Bill, “‘low carbon electricity generation’ means electricity generation which in the opinion of the Secretary of State will contribute to a reduction in emissions of greenhouse gases”.
Shades of Humpty Dumpty: a word means just what I choose it to mean. We are being asked to pretend that the most carbon rich fuel of all, wood, is not a source of carbon. According to Princeton University, trees used for biomass electricity generation increase carbon dioxide emissions by 79% compared with coal over 20 years and by 49% over 40 years, even if you replant the forest. We are through the looking glass.
Offshore wind, meanwhile, is a risky technology with a track record of engineering problems, sky- high costs, disappointing lifespan and problems of decommissioning. At the moment, we generate less than 1% of total energy, or 6% of electricity, from wind, despite all the damage it has already done to our countryside and economy. We are to increase that to something like 30% in just a decade or so, may be more if nuclear is delayed. It is a huge gamble, and if it fails, the only fallback is carbon capture and storage, a technology that has repeatedly failed to meet its promises at all, let alone affordably, a point made earlier by the noble Baroness, Lady Liddell.
Even if this wood and wind dash is possible, under the contract for a different system proposed in this Bill, while better than the renewable obligations that preceded it, the subsidy to renewable energy will quadruple by 2020. That is only the start. On top of that, there are system costs for balancing the unpredictability of wind; transmission costs for getting wind from remote areas to where it is needed; VAT; the carbon floor price; not to mention the cost of subsiding renewable heat and renewable transport fuels. Hence, at a conservative estimate, the Renewable Energy Foundation thinks that we will be imposing costs of £16 billion a year on our hard-pressed economy for several decades.
Why are we doing this? We are doing this because of four assumptions that were valid in 2010 but, as my noble friend Lord Lawson pointed out, are no longer valid to the same extent. First, we assumed we would not be acting alone, so we would not damage our competitiveness. Instead, not only is there no longer a Kyoto treaty, but China is planning to build 363 coal- fired power stations; India 455. On top of that, the European trading system has collapsed to less than €5 a tonne of carbon. Our carbon floor price is more than three times that: £16 a tonne, rising to £32 a tonne in 2020 and £76 a tonne in 2030. Acting unilaterally in this way does not save carbon emissions. It merely exports them and the jobs go with them. Northumberland’s largest employer, the aluminium smelter at Lynemouth, has closed with the loss of 500 jobs, almost entirely because of carbon policies.
The second assumption behind the Bill was that the cost of gas would rise, thus making the cost of energy rise anyway. The Committee on Climate Change said recently in a report that:
“Consensus projections are that gas prices will rise in future”.
This remark has been described by the utilities team at Liberum Capital as “genuinely amazing” in the light of recent events. Now that we know that gas prices have plummeted in the United States to roughly one-quarter of ours, thanks to shale gas; now that we know that Britain probably has many decades worth of shale gas itself; now that we know that enormous reserves of offshore gas near Israel, Brazil and parts of Africa are going to come on line in years to come; now that we know that conventional gas producers such as Russia and Qatar are facing increasing competition from unconventional and offshore gas; now that we know that methane hydrates on the ocean floor are more abundant than all other fossil fuels put together and that the Japanese are planning to explore them; in short, now that we know we are nowhere near peak gas, it is surely folly to hold our economy hostage to an assumption that gas prices must rise.
We will need the gas anyway. The intermittent nature of wind means that we will require increasing back-up and we cannot get it from nuclear because it is not responsive enough to fill the lulls when the wind drops. Far from replacing fossil fuels, a dash for wood and wind means a dash for gas too, only this time we will have to subsidise it because the plants will stand idle for most of the time and pay a rising carbon floor price when they do operate. Having distorted the markets to disastrous effect with subsidies to renewables, we are now being asked, under the capacity market mechanism, to introduce compensating countersubsidies to fossil fuels.
The third assumption was that the cost of renewables would fall rapidly as we rolled them out. This has proved untrue and, indeed, as the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies has shown, the cost curve for renewables inevitably rises as the best sites are used up, not least in the North Sea. I am told by those who work in the offshore wind industry that, at the moment, the industry has every incentive to keep its costs up not down, as it sets out to strike a contract with the Government. They will not have to try very hard. Even at low estimates, offshore wind is stratospherically expensive.
The fourth assumption on which this Bill is based was that the climate would change dangerously and soon. Once again, this assumption is looking much shakier than it did five years ago. The slow rate at which the temperature has been changing over the past 50 years and the best evidence from the top-of-the-atmosphere radiation about climate sensitivity are both very clearly pointing to carbon dioxide having its full greenhouse effect but without significant net positive feedback of the kind on which all the alarm is based. The noble Baroness, Lady Worthington, and the noble Lord, Lord Stern, both mentioned Professor Myles Allen and they will be aware, therefore, of his recent paper, which found significantly reduced climate sensitivity. If that is the case, the dash to wind and biomass may well continue to do more harm to the environment as well as to the economy for many decades than climate change itself will do.
However, leaving that on one side, as my noble friend Lord Lawson said, the argument against subsidising wind and biomass does not depend on a benign view of climate change. It stands powerfully on its own merits, even if you think dangerous climate change is imminent. In 1981, my noble friend Lord Lawson, ignoring the prevailing wisdom of the day, as he sometimes does, decided against the predict-and-provide central planning philosophy and instead embraced the idea of letting the market discover the best way to provide electricity. The result was the cheapest and most flexible energy sector of any western country.
We have progressively turned our backs on that. Under this Bill, the location, the technology and the price of each power source is determined by one person—the omniscient Secretary of State. Recent occupants of that position have an unhappy history of not making wise decisions. Remember ground source heat pumps? They do not work as advertised. Remember electric vehicles? They have been a flop. Remember biofuels? They have caused rainforest destruction and hunger. Remember the Green Deal? Must we go on making these mistakes?
We have returned to a philosophy of picking winners, or rather, from the point of view of the consumer, of picking losers. Not even just picking losers, but hobbling winners, because of the obstacles we have put in the way of shale gas. America has cut its carbon emissions by far more than we have, almost entirely because of shale gas displacing coal. By pursuing a strategy that encouraged unabated gas, we could halve emissions and cut bills at the same time. Instead, I very much fear we will find we have spent a fortune to achieve neither.
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UK electricity prices almost twice as expensive as Germany within three years
Electricity prices in Britain may be almost double those in Germany within three years due largely to the impact of a new tax aimed at supporting renewable power generation, a report by bank Credit Suisse has claimed.
The bank's analysis showed wholesale prices, which form the backbone of energy bills, would top those in Germany by 85pc in 2016-17 and would be higher in general for the next seven to 10 years.
The bank blamed the roughly fivefold rise in the government's new tax on carbon-dioxide emitting power generation over the next seven years, while also pointing to Britain's lack of infrastructure to import power from the European mainland.
Prices in the two countries had tracked one another for years, but they diverged last year as Germany spurred a boom in renewable energy generation by pouring billions into subsidising the green sector.
The Credit-Suisse figures show that in the winter of 2016/17 UK power prices will trade at an 85pc premium to German equivalents, compared with a 25pc divergence currently.
"Our analysis suggests these differentials will continue for the next seven to 10 years," analysts at the Swiss bank said in a report to clients.
The Government introduced the mandatory tax on carbon emissions at £4.94 per tonne of CO2 earlier this year, adding to the carbon charges already in place under the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS).
The two costs calculated together will rise to £30 per tonne in 2020, an expense which will significantly increase British power prices, Reuters reported.
German power prices have fallen on the back of the boom in solar and wind power but the government has now moved to rein in subsidies in recognition that the expansion may have come too fast given concerns over profitability and problems with managing the flow of green energy.
Seeking to learn from that, the UK model is to cap the value of subsidies annually in the hope that taxing carbon heavily will encourage the market to invest more in the renewable sector.
But Credit Suisse said the net effect over the next decade would be to cap the growth of renewable capacity.
The lack of substantial interconnection capacity with other countries also means that the UK will not benefit from the effect of low prices on the mainland, they added.
Higher wholesale power prices in the UK have led to much better stock market performance by UK utilities compared with those in mainland Europe over the past 18 months.
Share prices in UK power utilities have increased around 28pc over the period, while European stocks are down 8pc.
SSE is the Credit Suisse's top pick for shares to buy due its diverse range of generation fuels and its business exposure in Britain as well as Ireland.
SOURCE
More GM crops means more nature reserves, says British minister
A big expansion of genetically-modified crops in Britain could lead to the creation of more nature reserves
The Environment secretary will say on Thursday that using GM will make use of farm land and “free up space for biodiversity, nature and wilderness”.
In a speech to make the moral case for GM foods, Mr Paterson will stress how “the farmer benefits, the consumer benefits, the environment benefits” from GM crops.
Officials briefed that if current GM food restrictions were lifted it would also mean that the price of some foods will come down in the shops.
Mr Paterson is battling to persuade officials in the European Union to lift current rules which only allow one type of maize to be grown in the UK.
Britain is pushing for scores of GM crops to be given the green light by EU regulators, including herbicide tolerant maize and sugar beet.
The Environment Secretary’s speech comes after Prime Minister David Cameron said last weekend that Britain should take a new look at GM food as part of efforts to make the UK a pro-science country.
In his speech, Mr Paterson will link increased use of GM crops with freeing up more land for nature reserves. This is because GM crops have a better yield and so means that a smaller area of land would need to be planted.
He will say: “Used properly GM promises effective ways to protect or increase crop yields. It can also combat the damaging effects of unpredictable weather and disease on crops.
“It has the potential to reduce fertiliser and chemical use, improve the efficiency of agricultural production and reduce post-harvest losses.
“If we use cultivated land more efficiently, we could free up space for biodiversity, nature and wilderness.”
He will refer to research from Rockefeller University which suggests that more extensive use of GM crops “combined with improved agricultural practices across the world, could release an area 2.5 times the size of France from cultivation”.
He will say GM crops are “safe and cost effective” adding: “Farmers wouldn’t grow these crops if they didn’t benefit from doing so.
“Governments wouldn’t licence these technologies if they didn’t recognise the economic, environmental and public benefits.
“Consumers wouldn’t buy these products if they didn’t think they were safe and cost effective.”
He will add: “While the rest of the world is ploughing ahead and reaping the benefits of new technologies, Europe risks being left behind.
“We cannot afford to let that happen. The use of GM could be as transformative as the original agricultural revolution was. The UK should be at the forefront of that now, as it was then.”
Mr Paterson’s expected comments were welcomed by the GM industry. Professor Maurice Moloney, Chief Executive of Rothamsted Research, said: “We are very happy to see clear leadership on this issue from Secretary of State Paterson.
“GM crops and the use of biotechnology in agriculture has been effectively on hold in Europe for many years.
“The Government's initiative puts the UK back into a leadership position in Europe on this issue and will promote a rational approach to the adoption of technologies that our farmers want and need in order to maintain their competitive position in world agriculture.”
But critics were sceptical about Mr Paterson’s claims. Lord Melchett, Policy Director of the Soil Association, said there is no evidence any GM crops provide higher yields. He said that yields could even be lower, meaning more land is taken up.
Lord Melchett, who was arrested in 1999 when he was present at an environmental protest against a GM crop trial, also said it was worse for wildlife. He said the Government's own five year farmscale testing in 2004 had found that GM was worse for wildlife.
He said: “It is dinner party gossip he [Paterson] is coming out with not science and not policy.”
Pete Riley of GM Freeze said it would difficult to export GM crops to our main markets in the EU as consumers on the Continent are against the technology and the EC insist it is on the label.
SOURCE
From red peril to green panic
America’s military industrial complex once chased communists. Now it obsesses over CO2 emissions
For some years, America’s armed forces, intelligence apparatus and police have listened into and infiltrated environmentalist groups. In 1997, in fact, FBI director Robert Mueller, who is still in post today, declared that environmental and animal rights agitators perpetrating criminal acts were among the agency’s ‘highest priorities’ in terms of dealing with domestic terrorism. Those priorities explain why, for instance, police in Nebraska collaborated, just last month, with TransCanada, the firm responsible for the proposed Canada-through-to the-Gulf-Coast Keystone XL pipeline. The joint mission? Profiling activist critics held likely to engage in the destruction of property and ‘monkeywrenching’ – throwing a spanner in TransCanada’s works.
So there’s long been lots of spying on Greens in America. Moreover, top leaders and experts in security matters have also long warned, in print, about the possibility of social unrest over environmental issues; and they have also long insisted on the need to control such unrest. Yet there’s a paradox here. Though the American state targets Greens, its geopolitical and strategic visions of the future reveal a conceptual framework that is deeply green. When the Pentagon and its allies draw up a forecast, what dominates the authors’ imagination are two old green bogeymen – disasters caused by climate change, and wars over scarce natural resources.
The nightmares are legion. Published in May 2010, President Barack Obama’s National Security Strategy contains no fewer than 23 references to climate change, and identifies it, along with pandemic disease and transnational crime, as a major threat to the global order. Or take the US National Intelligence Council’s December 2012 prospectus, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds. Two of its four ‘megatrends’ for the next 17 years are about the world’s increasing population, its growing urbanisation, and the strains this will put on supplies of food, of water and of energy. Notably, the forecast suggests that, in a kind of feedback effect, climate change itself will ‘worsen the outlook’ for the availability of these three resources.
Of course, as in the past, such Mosaic roadmaps of the future do envisage wellsprings of upheaval that are economic, social, religious and patriotic, not just environmental. But in their growing obsession with environmentally based upsets to come, the US militarists have drawn closer than ever to Green thinking. The US state may wish to paralyse what the depleted remnants of the international left are pleased to term New Social Movements – ineffectual, anti-leadership outbursts that flaunt a modish antipathy to capitalism, globalisation, environmental damage and industrial sectors which can be termed Big. Equally, however, the US state shares the very same apocalyptic and Malthusian premises from which those ‘movements’ begin.
A one-eyed view of war in the twenty-first century
American securocrats have a naturalistic take on the world of the next few decades. For them the forces of nation or class, which motivated intelligence assessments throughout the twentieth century, are now jostled with by climate change and resource shortages. The spooks fear that, at home and abroad, global warming will increase the incidence and intensity of droughts, floods, hurricanes and perhaps, after 24 people died in minutes in the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore, of tornados as well. In this scenario, civil breakdown and unprecedented mass migration tomorrow justify the vigilance and mobilisation of armed force today – both outside and inside the US.
In May 2007, the US Congress commissioned a National Security Assessment of Climate Change. Nor was Congress unique in seeking counsel here: in the same month, an influential group of advisers to the German government submitted a 248-page report to it on Climate Change as a Security Risk. At the peak of the panic years of the noughties, such alarmist accounts of the likely impact of climate change were, perhaps, to be expected. Yet while anxiety about climate change in mainstream government and among the public has since ebbed away around the world, paranoia about climate in military circles has continued unabated.
In decades gone by, the US military shared some of the US environmentalism’s worries about America’s dependence on Middle Eastern oil, and its worries, too, about the vulnerability to terrorist attack of nationwide American energy grids (2). By 2009, too, it was already clear that the West would manipulate the issue of climate change to try to control the pace and direction of growth in the East (3). Yet now things have moved on again. Impressionism about climate’s effect on weather in the US seems to have combined with impressionism about the East’s demand for oil, minerals and other commodities to produce a new wave of panic at the Department of Defense.
In meditating relatively less on nuclear conflagration and more about an overheated planet that runs out of the basics, the US military, always charged with guarding against risk, has picked up all the sensibilities of environmentalism. Under a Democratic Party president, it could hardly be otherwise. Nevertheless, the armed wing of the state in the US still betrays a tremendously one-eyed view of war in the twenty-first century. Could wars of the future have anything to do, perhaps, with America’s willingness to meddle, on humanitarian grounds of course, in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Syria, the better to legitimise its domestic rule and insulate it from dissent? Might wars of the future also have something to do with the increasing arbitrariness in international relations nowadays, given that the resolute, unambiguous, goal-driven search for raw materials, markets and cheap labour no longer informs aggressive foreign policy postures in quite the way it did a century ago? About these causes of wars, we hear nothing from America’s far-sighted security prophets.
Their willingness to look the other way and instead focus on squabbles originating from the fate of the Earth’s ecosystems is all the more remarkable, given that environmental stresses are, if anything, not on the rise at the rates they were. After all, though the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has passed 400 parts per million (ppm), and world energy-related emissions of CO2 increased 1.4 per cent to a record high in 2012, there is good news: moving out of coal-fired power and into gas-fired electricity generation has helped cut US emissions, while the emissions increase in China, though a large amount, was one of the lowest in 10 years. Similarly, the pressure on resources has abated somewhat. Earlier this month, the US Energy Information Administration published bullish estimates of non-US reserves of shale oil and shale gas, suggesting that, respectively, they had added an extra 10 and 48 per cent to technically recoverable reserves of conventional fossil fuels. And, for a year or more, US politicians have barely been able to contain themselves about the unlikely prospect of America enjoying complete independence from external suppliers of oil and gas.
All of this is of little moment to the martial authorities in the US. One might observe that, just as turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, securocrats have no interest in playing down the military implications of environmental problems – any more than the CIA had an interest, just before the end of the Cold War, in predicting the fall of the Berlin Wall (4). But it would be more telling to observe that 10th-grade economics, in which a world of finitude is simply consumed by a growing and ever more greedy population, infects the US authorities as much as it does the world’s Greens.
Conclusion: agreeing with the Greens they crack down on
In all the rumpus about America’s National Security Agency (NSA), whingeing over invasions of individual privacy has tended to eclipse debate on the US state’s surveillance of larger, political organisations. In Britain, certainly, the willingness of the US tax authorities to harass members of the Tea Party, for example, has taken second place to the revelations of the NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden. But there can be no doubt that, as part of a wider culture of fear in Western society, the American state conducts plenty of electronic eavesdropping and human intelligence work on all kinds of radicals: not just on rather anarchist protesters like Occupy Wall Street, but also on green campaigners of every stripe.
Why, though, does the US state bother to do this covert and sometimes overt repression of its environmentalist critics? No doubt it exaggerates both the current and the putative influence of the more militant, ‘direct action’ end of American environmentalism just as much as it exaggerates the danger of Islamic terrorism on American soil. Yet if the peaceful language and street tactics of most of American’s environmentally-minded folk hardly inspires fear, that isn’t quite to the point. For the US state, as for very many environmentalists, narratives of the future forever revolve around a turbulent hell of shocking weather events and dog-eat-dog scraps over food, water, minerals and fossil fuels – and preparations must immediately be made for every possible consequence of that hell (5).
The only remaining question is why the US state represses environmentalists when it agrees so much with their ecological starting point. But that is just the issue: having lost a real opponent in the old Soviet Union, the US state now thrashes around trying to find new ones in Chechen losers (the Boston bombers), and also in environmentalists with whom it actually has a lot in common.
Bogged down in and trying to withdraw from Iraq and Afghanistan, America’s military could use some traction. From belligerent Bashir Assad in Damascus to limp opponents of fracking in the US, anyone can be drafted in to provide that traction. What lies before us with US spooks is not omniscience based on mass surveillance, but arbitrariness based on losing the plot and lacking a clear objective.
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Government regs hurt passenger rail
Michael Barone
That’s the message of this paper from the Competitive Enterprise Institute. The writers point out the American safety regulators require passenger rail cars to be much heavier than European regulators do. But over the years, they say, the European cars have proved just as safe, and perhaps more so.
The problem is that Amtrak and other passenger rail authorities set out to provide higher speed service, they can’t buy rail cars commonly used in Europe. Cars must be custom designed–which has produced real problems, as those Amtrak encountered with the Acela. It also means that American rail cars can’t go as fast as European cars can. European models, they say, could get from Washington to New York in two hours and 15 minutes. The Acela takes half an hour longer.
I’ve been skeptical about most U.S. high-speed rail projects. But perhaps the changes in regulation the CEI authors advocate could make it feasible in more places. It sure would be nice if a day’s DC-NY round trip took four and a half hours rather than five and a half.
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