Is Sarah messing with us?

The latest clip of the Katie Couric-Sarah Palin interview reveals an exchange in which Palin (a.k.a. Bible Spice) is asked what newspapers or magazines she reads, and she can't name any. She claims to read stuff all the time, but she can't name a single one, not even Newsweek, USA Today, or the Anchorage Daily News. I don't think it's possible that she's never read a newspaper or magazine. (She was a journalism major!) So two alternate theories present themselves:

1. She's broken. By this point in the interview, her confidence is completely shattered. She knows she's blown it on national TV, and she's just barely keeping it together. So she forgets simple things, which happens to all of us when we're near break point.
2. She's totally messing with us. A student of mine has a theory that she's been trying to aggressively lower expectations for the VP debate, so she intentionally blew the Couric interview the way a pool shark throws the first few games.

I've been favoring #1 lately, but #2 is sounding increasingly plausible.

The CoFex?

Some of the coverage of yesterday's failed bailout bill vote has described it as a "coalition of the extremes" vote (or a CoFex, a term coined by Wesley Hussey), with the center largely favoring the bill and the extremes opposing it. As the Washington Post's Dana Milbank wrote:

After the shocking vote of 228 to 205, party leaders did their usual rounds of partisan finger-pointing, but it really wasn't a partisan issue at all. The center had collapsed in favor of a coalition of far-right and far-left zealots.

That's actually not the way it looks when you break the vote down by members' ideal points:
There's definitely somewhat more opposition out in the extremes than toward the center, but it's not a particularly striking pattern. The more telling indicator of the vote is that retiring members voted overwhelmingly for it and members in competitive districts voted overwhelmingly against it.

Update: Diane Watson opposed the measure, while Maxine Waters supported it, even though they have similar voting records and represent similar, adjacent districts. Those two can't agree on anything.
Later update: Milbank quote added in above.

Saw Obama today

Mountain Range High School, Westminster, CO

The electoral connection in action

Nate Silver at 538 helpfully points out that the real division over today's failed bailout bill wasn't party; it was career. Among members of Congress from safe districts, the vote was essentially 50-50. However, members from competitive districts opposed the bill 30-8. Moreover, members who are retiring supported the bill 23-2-1.

This is not terribly surprising. If you're facing a tough re-election fight, and a president with a 28% approval rating tells you to eat a shit sandwich, and your constituents know it's a shit sandwich, it's pretty obvious where your loyalties lie.

Happy New Year

A very happy Rosh Hashanah to y'all.

Biden's dilemma

Biden's certainly prone to making a gaffe or two on the stump, but his performance in debates is usually quite measured and skilled. Palin, meanwhile, can obviously give a good speech, but is reduced to completely incomprehensible blather during even modest questioning. So assuming she starts talking like a Speak-n-Spell with dying batteries during Thursday's debate, what should Biden do? If he mocks her, does he lose the debate for being too mean? But if he lets stuff go, does he lose the debate for being too soft?

I was showing the freshmen in my campaigns class some debate clips the other day, and their reaction to the Bentsen/Quayle "You're no Jack Kennedy" exchange was really quite interesting. You should watch it if you haven't seen it in a while:

Some of my students were pretty stunned at how bad Quayle came off. He looked like a frightened child, barely able to make eye contact with Bentsen while he was being chastised. Others thought that Bensten came off as a cruel old man. (For me, the really cruel part was his line, "You're the one who was making the comparison, Senator....")

My recollection of the event is that Quayle was resoundingly considered the loser in that exchange. There was no real blowback against the Dukakis/Bensten campaign for Bentsen's cruelty that night. It was considered one of the few high points for the Democrats that year. Indeed, the main criticism of that campaign remains that it was not nearly tough enough with Bush.

So, would Biden face a similar situation with Palin? If Bentsen had been so rough with a female opponent, would people have rushed to her defense? It's hard to say. It's a pernicious form of sexism if a woman is held to a lower standard of competence in a political debate. Of course, Biden may well be accused of sexism if he treats her as harshly as he would a man.

I don't have good answers here. Any thoughts on this?

Whew, it's not just me

Slate has been inviting readers to chime in about their dreams about Sarah Palin. She's having some weird effect on Americans' sleep patterns. This was one of my favorites:

"Sarah Palin's standing over me (I'm naked, she's not) and shouting, podium style, through a pair of great, floating glasses, 'And you know what? I'm going to cut it off. I'm gonna CUT IT OFF.' I hear cheers. Are we onstage? I don't see it, but I feel the presence of TV camera everywhere. She continues, 'And you know why? Because, well why shouldn't I? If you're good, I know God will put it back.' I look down and realize I have the biggest pot plant ever growing up between my legs. I mean, the thing is beautiful. I think something happens next, but I can't remember what. All I know is we are in a field, and Sarah Palin is kneeling over me decked out in hunter gear. She cradles her rifle pragmatically and smiles pathetically as if to say, 'You silly bear,' and ruffles my stomach. The plant is gone, but I am now covered in fur. And blood. And bits of grass. And as much as I want to bite her face off, I can't be angry at her. Or rather, I can't argue it. I've got nothing. And she knows it too. Her triumphalism is effortless."—Joshua Mensch