Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 6,95.1 +2.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 44,397.2 +2.9%

• NASDAQ 19,927.3 +3.0%

• Russell 2000 2,310.4 +1.9%

• NYSE FANG+ 13,804.3 +5.3%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 207.9 +3.8%

• Wilshire 5000 60,686.6 +2.6%

• Russell 1000 Growth 4,178.9 +3.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,909.6 +2.0%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 852.6 +1.7%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 257.3 -.24%
  

• NYSE Technology 5,667.9 +4.2%

• Transports 16,608.5 +.1%

• Utilities 1,014.0 +.19%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 122.88 +2.0%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.9 +2.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 218.3 +1.2%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 116.78 +.6%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 537,856 +.8%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.9 +9.2

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 400 +348
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -31.4 -20.5%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 306,291 +9.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,896,350 -3.2%

• Total Put/Call .73 +2.9%

• OEX Put/Call .87 -22.5%

• ISE Sentiment 173.0 -7.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .81 -13.4%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 74.9 +2.7%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .89 +17.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.72 +9.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -9.3%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .38 -57.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 11.9 -17.9%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.0 -12.8%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.1 -9.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 19,691.3 +.63%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  86.1 +15.9
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.903 Trillion +.61%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$3.168 Million

• AAII % Bulls 43.4 +70.9%

• AAII % Bears 29.4 -27.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 51.0 (NEUTRAL) +14.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 309.4 -.9%

• Crude Oil 74.6/bbl. -5.1%

• Reformulated Gasoline 204.7 -3.1%

• Natural Gas 4.03 -6.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.7 euros/megawatt-hour +4.9%
  

• Heating Oil 251.5 -3.6% 
• Newcastle Coal 117.0 (1,000/metric ton) +.8%
  

• Gold 2,774.4 +2.6%
• Silver 30.7 +.99%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 452.7 -.5%

• Copper 431.4 -2.7%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 344.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.2%

• China Iron Ore Spot 105.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.9%

• CME Lumber  566.5 -5.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,477.0 +3.0%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 263.5 USD/Short Ton +3.3%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast +2.99% +27.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.8% -.8 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.84 +25.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 166.9 -29.5%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(78 of 500 reporting) +16.6% n/a

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.56 n/a:  Growth Rate +15.3% n/a, P/E 22.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.28% -5.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 398.99 n/a: Growth Rate +27.6% n/a, P/E 34.8 n/a
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 10.1 -12.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.1 +16.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.3 +3.7 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply .5%(-1.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 99.5%(+.6 percentage point) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 1/29
  

• US Dollar Index 107.4 -1.4%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,740.2 +.72%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 106,215.5 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.6 +1.9%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 35.0 +1.0 basis point
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.62% -1.0 basis point
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.786 Trillion -.04%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.812 Billion +11.1%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $.247 Billion -81.5%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 34.0 -4.2%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 209.3 -6.1%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 109.0 -2.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 22.7 -1.1%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.7 -4.7%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 175.6 -6.7%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 86.7 -5.2%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.7 -9.1%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.4%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 109.3 +3.0%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% -10.0 basis points
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.5% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.5% +10.0 basis points
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.2% -10.0 basis points
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% +2.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.23% +1.0 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.25 basis points -.75 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 -1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.5 basis point
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.92 -1.8%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 177.0 +40.5% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 165.0 -31.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 59.4 -2.5%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.9 -2.7%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 156.2 -4.2%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 135.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 609.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .42 -2.0 basis points
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.7% +60.0 basis points
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,157.0B +1.0%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 213,500 +.4%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 49.7 +15.5%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 7.02% -8.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 224,600 +.09%

• Weekly Retail Sales +4.2% +20.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -3.0% -22.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $139.3M -53.4%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.13/gallon +.01/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 824.0 -16.5%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,444.7/40 ft Box -10.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,505.1 -3.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 37.5 -16.7%
  
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 62.9 -11.1%

• Rail Freight Carloads 283,703 +6.7%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,158,157 +11.3%
  

Best Performing Style

• Mid-Cap Growth +3.2%
  

Worst Performing Style

•  Mid-Cap Value +1.2%

Leading Sectors

• Disk Drives +6.5%

• Networking +6.1%
• AI/Robotics +5.9%
  

• I-Banks +5.4%
  

• Digital Health +5.2%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Oil Service -1.3%
  

• Shipping -1.4%
  

• Alt Energy -1.6%

• Energy -1.6%
  

• Homebuilding -2.0%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (29)

• BKSY, TWLO, MIDD, DAN, CUBI, HIMX, PSIX, SERV, OKLO, NVO, NNE, GRAL, SEI, GRND, GRAL, BAND, NBIS, IBKR, NEE, DEO, LUNR, EWTX, SSB, DOCN, EH, ETON, HMY, CIB and BEP
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (8)

• AGYS, MHK, AGX, PVY, FTAI, CF, TXN and SMLR
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Profit-Taking, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +680 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +16 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (T)/.49
• (SOFI)/.04
• (BOH)/.84
  

After the Close: 

• (BRO)/.77
• (CR)/1.20
• (GGG)/.76
• (NUE)/.64
• (SANM)/1.36
• (WRB)/.96
• (WAL)/1.90
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Dec. is estimated to rise to 670K versus 664K in Nov.
  

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 2/5Y T-Note auctions, (VVV) annual meeting and the (SMG) annual meeting could also impact global on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 55.25 -1.25 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 104.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.6 +.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.6 +.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.25%.

• S&P 500 futures -.07%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.13%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Optimism, Trump Policy Initiatives, Short-Covering, Road & Rail/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.8 -2.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .42 +2.2%.
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 73.8 +.5%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.4 -.27%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.2 -.9%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 11.5 +.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 172.0 +7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .74 -2.6%

• NYSE Arms .67 -50.7%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$17.9M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.9 -.8%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.5 +.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 184 -7
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.55 -.13%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 144.84 +.42%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points +3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.5 +1.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 157.1 -.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 89.0 +.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.97 -.15%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -16.0 basis points unch.
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 3.75 basis points unch.
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.75 basis points
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 137.0 +2.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 609.0 unch.
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 43.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.08%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 103.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 49.1 euros/megawatt-hour +.84%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.7 -1.1 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -24.9 -.3 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 7.9 -.2 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(70 of 500 reporting) +18.9% +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 274.28 +.07:  Growth Rate +15.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.25% -2.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +97.6% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 398.63 +1.44: Growth Rate +27.1% +.4 percentage point, P/E 34.5 -.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .87 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.76 +1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 35.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.99% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 23.4% -1.0 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.83% unch.: CPI YoY +2.84% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +4.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for March 19th FOMC meeting: 73.6% (-1.6 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for May 7th meeting: 54.2%(-2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -48 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +10 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +172 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my industrial/tech/financial/utility/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long