Ministry of Sound Annual DVD
Along with the new Kylie DVD, I picked up a MOS Annual DVD of dance parties all around the world. It all looked fun, although it became a haze of bikinis and sunglasses after awhile. The dancing itself was unoriginal, but the crowds were large, the music loud, the special effects great, and what's not to like, especially when they featured Klea's 'Tic Toc'?
Friday, September 17, 2004
More Dreams
I dreamt that DMTC's 'Bye, Bye, Birdie' was opening at the 24th Street Theater instead of at the Varsity, and the theater was confusingly placed adjacent to the Safeway Supermarket on Alhambra Blvd. I was informed, to my surprise, that I was in the show. Even though it was half an hour before curtain and didn't know any of my lines or the songs, I left to go relax at an anonymous season ticketholder's house. As I left the theater, I passed the first gas station ever managed by Mel Brooks (carefully maintained as a museum). Once at the house (conveniently left unlocked so I could relax), I dawdled away so much time looking at costumes, I couldn't make curtain time. Then I awoke.
I dreamt that DMTC's 'Bye, Bye, Birdie' was opening at the 24th Street Theater instead of at the Varsity, and the theater was confusingly placed adjacent to the Safeway Supermarket on Alhambra Blvd. I was informed, to my surprise, that I was in the show. Even though it was half an hour before curtain and didn't know any of my lines or the songs, I left to go relax at an anonymous season ticketholder's house. As I left the theater, I passed the first gas station ever managed by Mel Brooks (carefully maintained as a museum). Once at the house (conveniently left unlocked so I could relax), I dawdled away so much time looking at costumes, I couldn't make curtain time. Then I awoke.
Marc's Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Jeanne:
It will be interesting to see what happens with this storm (weakened today to a tropical depression but maybe strengthening again soon). Forecasts now show the storm as staying well off the Florida coast, and moving north, off the coast of South Carolina, but the forecasts diverge about what happens after that. The GFS model shows the storm slowly getting dragged eastwards by the cold front carrying remnants of Ivan. The NOGAPS model, which brings the storm a little closer to shore than the GFS model, and hence a little more under the influence of the developing high pressure system centered in PA, shows the competing eastwards and westwards forces making the storm stall off the coast. The storm is finally brought into the SC coast, painfully slowly, about a week from now.
Hurricane Javier:
Moisture from the hurricane has been working into northern Mexico (and now portions of SE AZ, southern NM, and far western TX) for the last day. Rain showers have already started in AZ's White Mountains, but the big plume of moisture has yet to arrive. It's possible the storm itself will be brought into the Colorado River Valley, similar to the way Nora came in back in 1997 (which, as I recall, despite bringing heavy rains to Yuma, brought very little rain to Phoenix). Nevertheless, this should be fun!
Tropical Storm Jeanne:
It will be interesting to see what happens with this storm (weakened today to a tropical depression but maybe strengthening again soon). Forecasts now show the storm as staying well off the Florida coast, and moving north, off the coast of South Carolina, but the forecasts diverge about what happens after that. The GFS model shows the storm slowly getting dragged eastwards by the cold front carrying remnants of Ivan. The NOGAPS model, which brings the storm a little closer to shore than the GFS model, and hence a little more under the influence of the developing high pressure system centered in PA, shows the competing eastwards and westwards forces making the storm stall off the coast. The storm is finally brought into the SC coast, painfully slowly, about a week from now.
Hurricane Javier:
Moisture from the hurricane has been working into northern Mexico (and now portions of SE AZ, southern NM, and far western TX) for the last day. Rain showers have already started in AZ's White Mountains, but the big plume of moisture has yet to arrive. It's possible the storm itself will be brought into the Colorado River Valley, similar to the way Nora came in back in 1997 (which, as I recall, despite bringing heavy rains to Yuma, brought very little rain to Phoenix). Nevertheless, this should be fun!
Thursday, September 16, 2004
Spirit at Gusev Crater
I love poring over the information in Science's August 6th issue, with a special section dedicated to the early scientific discoveries at Gusev Crater. All kinds of information, like the severe diurnal temperature swings (limited mostly to the surface environment, a function of the thin, thin atmosphere), partial eclipses of the Sun caused by the moons Phobos & Deimos, and the locally low albedo caused apparently by dust removal by dust devils. Instead of a playa generated by water pouring into the Crater down Ma'adim Vallis, people were shocked to discover more volcanic basalt than any one had a right to expect (technically, near the junction of basalt, picrobasalt, and tephrite), and just a few signs of water, maybe just groundwater long ago - much different than the hematite being probed by the fellow Rover Opportunity on the other side of the planet.
After poking around at Bonneville Crater, the Spirit Rover was ordered to flee to the Columbia Hills, where the rocks seem more interesting. Currently the Rover is hibernating for about 11 days as Mars passes behind the Sun (interfering with communication).
Mars is certainly simpler than Earth. The 1997 Mars Pathfinder expedition found lots of andesite (or a surficial crust on rocks that certainly looked like andesite), which suggested some subduction had once taken place on Mars. But the stuff was virtually pure andesite. At Gusev, the primitive basaltic mineral content is virtually identical everywhere. Soil content is very similar over the whole, windblown planet. And very little has changed for billions of years! Mars is red, white and black: Earth is shades of grey, blue and white.
I suspect Mars isn't suited for human settlement, even with a major investment of resources. Certainly it would be a challenge. What did Elton John sing?
I love poring over the information in Science's August 6th issue, with a special section dedicated to the early scientific discoveries at Gusev Crater. All kinds of information, like the severe diurnal temperature swings (limited mostly to the surface environment, a function of the thin, thin atmosphere), partial eclipses of the Sun caused by the moons Phobos & Deimos, and the locally low albedo caused apparently by dust removal by dust devils. Instead of a playa generated by water pouring into the Crater down Ma'adim Vallis, people were shocked to discover more volcanic basalt than any one had a right to expect (technically, near the junction of basalt, picrobasalt, and tephrite), and just a few signs of water, maybe just groundwater long ago - much different than the hematite being probed by the fellow Rover Opportunity on the other side of the planet.
After poking around at Bonneville Crater, the Spirit Rover was ordered to flee to the Columbia Hills, where the rocks seem more interesting. Currently the Rover is hibernating for about 11 days as Mars passes behind the Sun (interfering with communication).
Mars is certainly simpler than Earth. The 1997 Mars Pathfinder expedition found lots of andesite (or a surficial crust on rocks that certainly looked like andesite), which suggested some subduction had once taken place on Mars. But the stuff was virtually pure andesite. At Gusev, the primitive basaltic mineral content is virtually identical everywhere. Soil content is very similar over the whole, windblown planet. And very little has changed for billions of years! Mars is red, white and black: Earth is shades of grey, blue and white.
I suspect Mars isn't suited for human settlement, even with a major investment of resources. Certainly it would be a challenge. What did Elton John sing?
Mars ain't the kind of place
To raise your kids
In fact, it's cold as hell
And there's no one there to raise them
If you did
And all this science
I don't understand
It's just my job
Five days a week
A Rocket Man
Rocket Man
Marc's Tropical Update
(To Friends in Tampa, FL)
Things are going to be dull in Tampa - maybe afternoon showers at the most. Hope tedium isn't a problem. After all, tedium is welcome today, in Pensacola.
(To Friends in West Palm Beach, FL)
Tropical Storm (likely Hurricane) Jeanne will approach West Palm Beach on Sunday night. The storm will approach Florida's east coast and veer north. Jeanne is in pursuit of Ivan, and if Ivan lingers too long in the U.S., then Jeanne will come into the Florida coast. Currently, the GFS model calls for an early departure of Ivan, so Jeanne never gets within 200 miles of the coast. The NOGAPS model calls for a later departure, and thus brings Jeanne nearly up to the coast. Ivan has got to be completely off the eastern coast by Sunday night, however, when Jeanne makes its closest approach, for all to go well.
(To Friends in Aiken, SC)
Then Tropical Storm Jeanne comes your way! Starting on Monday morning, a strengthening high pressure system over Pennsylvania will drive Jeanne's moisture through Aiken, SC, clear across Dixie, ending up in Missouri (!) by Wednesday morning.
(To friends in Phoenix, AZ)
The GFS model is finally registering the coming Hurricane Javier rain event for the desert SW, starting Sunday morning and ending Monday night. The event might be highly focused. Currently, both NOGAPS and GFS models are showing a narrow plume of heavy rainfall, affecting the Colorado River Valley the most (interesting, since it is normally so dry there), but there will be rain for Phoenix as well. It should be an interesting time in the SW!
(To Friends in Tampa, FL)
Things are going to be dull in Tampa - maybe afternoon showers at the most. Hope tedium isn't a problem. After all, tedium is welcome today, in Pensacola.
(To Friends in West Palm Beach, FL)
Tropical Storm (likely Hurricane) Jeanne will approach West Palm Beach on Sunday night. The storm will approach Florida's east coast and veer north. Jeanne is in pursuit of Ivan, and if Ivan lingers too long in the U.S., then Jeanne will come into the Florida coast. Currently, the GFS model calls for an early departure of Ivan, so Jeanne never gets within 200 miles of the coast. The NOGAPS model calls for a later departure, and thus brings Jeanne nearly up to the coast. Ivan has got to be completely off the eastern coast by Sunday night, however, when Jeanne makes its closest approach, for all to go well.
(To Friends in Aiken, SC)
Then Tropical Storm Jeanne comes your way! Starting on Monday morning, a strengthening high pressure system over Pennsylvania will drive Jeanne's moisture through Aiken, SC, clear across Dixie, ending up in Missouri (!) by Wednesday morning.
(To friends in Phoenix, AZ)
The GFS model is finally registering the coming Hurricane Javier rain event for the desert SW, starting Sunday morning and ending Monday night. The event might be highly focused. Currently, both NOGAPS and GFS models are showing a narrow plume of heavy rainfall, affecting the Colorado River Valley the most (interesting, since it is normally so dry there), but there will be rain for Phoenix as well. It should be an interesting time in the SW!
DMTC Theater Construction
....Is proceeding apace. The first payment was made to Steve Harrison Construction, in excess of $124,000. More payments will come fast and furious. People have been generous. Nevertheless, I certainly hope we get big backers soon, whether a loan guarantee from the city, Bank of America, Buzz Oates, or some other source: that will greatly aid the process and prevent delays. One week from opening 'Bye, Bye Birdie', about nine days from 'Anything Goes' auditions, and working under the absolute necessity of opening 'Anything Goes' in the new theater. Too many construction delays could be awkward.
....Is proceeding apace. The first payment was made to Steve Harrison Construction, in excess of $124,000. More payments will come fast and furious. People have been generous. Nevertheless, I certainly hope we get big backers soon, whether a loan guarantee from the city, Bank of America, Buzz Oates, or some other source: that will greatly aid the process and prevent delays. One week from opening 'Bye, Bye Birdie', about nine days from 'Anything Goes' auditions, and working under the absolute necessity of opening 'Anything Goes' in the new theater. Too many construction delays could be awkward.
A Dream
I had a dream Monday morning. I was walking Sparky along a ditchbank, and a skunk poked his head out of a hole and chattered at Sparky. Provoked, Sparky furiously started tunneling into the ditchbank. Abruptly, water began pouring into the hole, draining the ditch and sweeping Sparky away. I think it was all a metaphorical description of Sunday night at the casino.
I had a dream Monday morning. I was walking Sparky along a ditchbank, and a skunk poked his head out of a hole and chattered at Sparky. Provoked, Sparky furiously started tunneling into the ditchbank. Abruptly, water began pouring into the hole, draining the ditch and sweeping Sparky away. I think it was all a metaphorical description of Sunday night at the casino.
Zogby Shows Kerry Blowout: 85 Point Lead Over Bush
Well, why not be optimistic? After all, when Drudge ran this headline this evening:
Well, why not be optimistic? After all, when Drudge ran this headline this evening:
GALLUP SHOWS BUSH BLOWOUT: 14 POINT LEAD OVER KERRYthere was no link that said anything like that over at Gallup. So, as usual with conservatives, bullshit walks. Remember, all this crap is just meant to deflate liberal hopes. Things actually aren't that bad, and could very well improve.
Wednesday, September 15, 2004
Jay Leno Back-Tracks
Jay Leno says, “I’m not conservative. I’ve never voted that way in my life.” Wouldn't have guessed it from his actions in last year's Recall campaign!
Jay Leno says, “I’m not conservative. I’ve never voted that way in my life.” Wouldn't have guessed it from his actions in last year's Recall campaign!
Tuesday, September 14, 2004
Kylie Minogue's 'Body Language'
Kylie's new album, 'Body Language', was finally released here in the U.S. boondocks in February. The DVD featuring her album launch concert, apparently held last November at London's 'Apollo' Theater, was released in July in Europe, but in the backwards U.S., it was released apparently only just last week (I cancelled my order with Euromusicworld.com out of sheer frustration just a week ago, but on the weekend I saw the DVD on sale at Tower, and last night, after an impatient and angry eternity, I finally got to see it).
Once again I'm in love! As I walked Sparky through the darkened streets of Sacramento, dodging blundering possums, I was in a daze as I tried to interpret her Brigitte Bardot revamp. I was mesmerized by the whole DVD, of course, but particularly her sweet reworking of 'Breathe/Je T'Aime'.
Unlike most popular musical stars, Kylie these days seems captivated by the idea of perfection: the perfect look, the best dancers, the most solid musicians. Visual aesthetics dominate. There is a word for this, of course: classicism. Kylie seems to be reaching out for a kind of sensual classicism, or classical sensualism, in her performance. There is a sense of perfect, almost yogic, stillness. Indeed, the pace is a bit slower, more metronomic, more hypnotic, than in past efforts.
I suppose it shouldn't be surprising to the classical impulse in music, but it's a bit strange to see it in pop music. Several months ago, flipping channels, I saw 'Xanadu' on television, and I was thunderstruck at how this musical's style (Gene Kelly's last full-length movie) seemed so akin to Kylie's style. She would have been about 11 or 12 years old when it came out - just the right age to make a tremendous impression. I wonder if she was influenced by 'Xanadu'? The plot description is very suggestive:
One reflection of the classical urge in both 'Body Language' and 'Fever' is the anomie of the dancing corps. On 2000's 'Light Years' DVD, a few men in the dancing corps had remarkable impish personalities that they were able to express on stage. The effacing women, however, had sensed Kylie's true direction. On 2002's 'Fever' DVD, the dancing corps had nearly been stripped of personality foibles, and that effort continues with 2004's 'Body Language'. Not that the dancers are metronomes, but the demands of perfection necessarily squelch individual expression.
On the older CD's, sometimes you heard a different Kylie, a more rebellious, troubled, even lazy Kylie. That Kylie is gone now - years of discipline have exiled that bad girl. But now there is a danger that, having climbed Mt. Olympus, she won't be able to get back down. Perhaps she'll have to change direction yet again.
Kylie needs her own Romantic revolt. Say, Kylie as an inmate of an asylum for the criminally insane, or as a bargirl, or as a soldier - a Kylie willing to experiment with ugliness and pain (but in a different way than bad-girl Madonna, who often wallowed in ugliness, and never really got her own clear view from Olympus). Kylie would have been a better 'Satine' than Nicole Kidman in Baz Luhrmann's Moulin Rouge (and not just as The Green Fairy). For the dancing corps (their many successes notwithstanding) I yearn for the imps of 'Light Years', and a greater equality with 'Venus de Melbourne'. So unusual, and so refreshing!
Kylie's new album, 'Body Language', was finally released here in the U.S. boondocks in February. The DVD featuring her album launch concert, apparently held last November at London's 'Apollo' Theater, was released in July in Europe, but in the backwards U.S., it was released apparently only just last week (I cancelled my order with Euromusicworld.com out of sheer frustration just a week ago, but on the weekend I saw the DVD on sale at Tower, and last night, after an impatient and angry eternity, I finally got to see it).
Once again I'm in love! As I walked Sparky through the darkened streets of Sacramento, dodging blundering possums, I was in a daze as I tried to interpret her Brigitte Bardot revamp. I was mesmerized by the whole DVD, of course, but particularly her sweet reworking of 'Breathe/Je T'Aime'.
Unlike most popular musical stars, Kylie these days seems captivated by the idea of perfection: the perfect look, the best dancers, the most solid musicians. Visual aesthetics dominate. There is a word for this, of course: classicism. Kylie seems to be reaching out for a kind of sensual classicism, or classical sensualism, in her performance. There is a sense of perfect, almost yogic, stillness. Indeed, the pace is a bit slower, more metronomic, more hypnotic, than in past efforts.
I suppose it shouldn't be surprising to the classical impulse in music, but it's a bit strange to see it in pop music. Several months ago, flipping channels, I saw 'Xanadu' on television, and I was thunderstruck at how this musical's style (Gene Kelly's last full-length movie) seemed so akin to Kylie's style. She would have been about 11 or 12 years old when it came out - just the right age to make a tremendous impression. I wonder if she was influenced by 'Xanadu'? The plot description is very suggestive:
The Greek muses incarnate themselves on Earth to inspire men to achieve. One of them, incarnated as a girl named Kira, encounters a musician/artist named Sonny Malone. With the help of Danny McGuire, a man Kira had inspired forty years earlier, Sonny builds a huge disco roller rink.Fellow Australian Olivia Newton-John played Kira, of course. And Kylie's (aka Kira's) disco roller rink encircles the entire Earth.
One reflection of the classical urge in both 'Body Language' and 'Fever' is the anomie of the dancing corps. On 2000's 'Light Years' DVD, a few men in the dancing corps had remarkable impish personalities that they were able to express on stage. The effacing women, however, had sensed Kylie's true direction. On 2002's 'Fever' DVD, the dancing corps had nearly been stripped of personality foibles, and that effort continues with 2004's 'Body Language'. Not that the dancers are metronomes, but the demands of perfection necessarily squelch individual expression.
On the older CD's, sometimes you heard a different Kylie, a more rebellious, troubled, even lazy Kylie. That Kylie is gone now - years of discipline have exiled that bad girl. But now there is a danger that, having climbed Mt. Olympus, she won't be able to get back down. Perhaps she'll have to change direction yet again.
Kylie needs her own Romantic revolt. Say, Kylie as an inmate of an asylum for the criminally insane, or as a bargirl, or as a soldier - a Kylie willing to experiment with ugliness and pain (but in a different way than bad-girl Madonna, who often wallowed in ugliness, and never really got her own clear view from Olympus). Kylie would have been a better 'Satine' than Nicole Kidman in Baz Luhrmann's Moulin Rouge (and not just as The Green Fairy). For the dancing corps (their many successes notwithstanding) I yearn for the imps of 'Light Years', and a greater equality with 'Venus de Melbourne'. So unusual, and so refreshing!
Monday, September 13, 2004
More Tales of Sacramento at Night
(Although the sun hadn't quite set yet.) Yesterday, eight teenage boys were riding bicycles past my house, as I put green cuttings in a pile on the street corner for pickup. Then, with multiple thuds, three of the boys tangled in a messy bicycle collision. I hesitated to intervene, in order to avoid embarrassing them, as they slowly and painfully struggled to their feet. I warily returned to my task, and ten minutes later I saw them slowly ride away, egos and bodies bruised, but apparently with bicycles that still functioned.
That's the second accident in nearly the same location in six months. I still don't know how one of my neighbors fared at the hospital, after being struck on her helmetless head in a hit-and-run accident as she bicycled past my house. I hope she kept her memories - they were fading when they carted her away.
(Although the sun hadn't quite set yet.) Yesterday, eight teenage boys were riding bicycles past my house, as I put green cuttings in a pile on the street corner for pickup. Then, with multiple thuds, three of the boys tangled in a messy bicycle collision. I hesitated to intervene, in order to avoid embarrassing them, as they slowly and painfully struggled to their feet. I warily returned to my task, and ten minutes later I saw them slowly ride away, egos and bodies bruised, but apparently with bicycles that still functioned.
That's the second accident in nearly the same location in six months. I still don't know how one of my neighbors fared at the hospital, after being struck on her helmetless head in a hit-and-run accident as she bicycled past my house. I hope she kept her memories - they were fading when they carted her away.
More Ivan
Today, the forecast has changed only slightly. The NOGAPS model nudged eastwards, bringing the storm ashore at Lake Ponchartrain, LA, whereas the GFS model shifted westwards, bringing the storm ashore at Mobile, AL. The most interesting feature is that the model predictions have never been closer. That indicates that the uncertainty in modeled storm path prediction is beginning to diminish as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC (a lagging indicator) has finally moved their forecast storm path as far west as Mobile, AL.
Today, the forecast has changed only slightly. The NOGAPS model nudged eastwards, bringing the storm ashore at Lake Ponchartrain, LA, whereas the GFS model shifted westwards, bringing the storm ashore at Mobile, AL. The most interesting feature is that the model predictions have never been closer. That indicates that the uncertainty in modeled storm path prediction is beginning to diminish as the storm enters the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC (a lagging indicator) has finally moved their forecast storm path as far west as Mobile, AL.
Sunday, September 12, 2004
More Ivan
The NHC consensus has caught up to where the NOGAPS model was yesterday. NHC model consensus now puts the storm track into Pensacola (on Wednesday, I think). NHC today indicates they have no reason to change their forecast from yesterday.
Nevertheless, today, the NOGAPS model is pushing Ivan yet farther west, moving the storm onshore in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana. The NOGAPS model is pushing the storm through the watery gap between Mexico and Cuba, so it is possible the storm will hardly impact Cuba at all - maybe just at the western tip.
Indeed, the storm avoided a direct hit on Jamaica by jogging farther to the west (even without a direct hit, Jamaica suffered quite a bit).
There was some concern two or three days ago that the storm could abruptly make a break for Florida after it passed over Cuba. That concern is an discussion artifact about diverging model predictions, and there is no reason to believe a sharp in direction is likely. There are no strong upper level winds around to make such an abrupt shift possible.
If the storm keeps moving west, I would be surprised if Tampa sees winds even as high as 20 mph. There are indications that there will be afternoon thundershowers for days after Ivan passes - basically normal Florida summer weather.
My thought is that Ivan will avoid inflicting Tampa with tropical storm level winds - maybe 20 mph. The NHC is being overcautious about moving the storm track west, to keep Floridians on their toes, but to the detriment of people in Louisiana, who may be unprepared for the calamity of a direct hit.
Keep an eye out where on Cuba the storm hits: the farther west, the better for Tampa, especially if the storm avoids Cuba altogether. Right now, with the current history of NOGAPS leading an overcautious NHC to the west, if I were Tampa's shoes, I'd stay put.
The NHC consensus has caught up to where the NOGAPS model was yesterday. NHC model consensus now puts the storm track into Pensacola (on Wednesday, I think). NHC today indicates they have no reason to change their forecast from yesterday.
Nevertheless, today, the NOGAPS model is pushing Ivan yet farther west, moving the storm onshore in the Mississippi Delta area of Louisiana. The NOGAPS model is pushing the storm through the watery gap between Mexico and Cuba, so it is possible the storm will hardly impact Cuba at all - maybe just at the western tip.
Indeed, the storm avoided a direct hit on Jamaica by jogging farther to the west (even without a direct hit, Jamaica suffered quite a bit).
There was some concern two or three days ago that the storm could abruptly make a break for Florida after it passed over Cuba. That concern is an discussion artifact about diverging model predictions, and there is no reason to believe a sharp in direction is likely. There are no strong upper level winds around to make such an abrupt shift possible.
If the storm keeps moving west, I would be surprised if Tampa sees winds even as high as 20 mph. There are indications that there will be afternoon thundershowers for days after Ivan passes - basically normal Florida summer weather.
My thought is that Ivan will avoid inflicting Tampa with tropical storm level winds - maybe 20 mph. The NHC is being overcautious about moving the storm track west, to keep Floridians on their toes, but to the detriment of people in Louisiana, who may be unprepared for the calamity of a direct hit.
Keep an eye out where on Cuba the storm hits: the farther west, the better for Tampa, especially if the storm avoids Cuba altogether. Right now, with the current history of NOGAPS leading an overcautious NHC to the west, if I were Tampa's shoes, I'd stay put.
Saturday, September 11, 2004
Hurricane Ivan and Tampa
I've been trying to put my education to use, by forecasting Hurricane Ivan's impacts in the Tampa area, where Dwight and Linda recently retired. They have plane tickets to flee, but need as much reliable guidance as possible before making that decision.
Essentially, there are no changes from 12 hours ago. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is finally acknowledging indications Ivan's track will be a bit westwards: they've been slow to do so because I think they are deeply worried about lulling people in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area into complacency, and the models still haven't reached a strong consensus. NHC now shows the track having landfall at Apalachicola, in the Florida Panhandle. Still, the NOGAPS model is now showing landfall a bit farther west, at Panama City, so NHC may eventually nudge their forecast track yet farther west.
If I had to guess maximum wind speed in Tampa based upon the current forecast, just from eyeballing the plotted wind fields, I'd say about 45 mph. Uncomfortable sailing weather, and good enough for scattered, sporadic power outages, but nothing wholesale. Plus rain...maybe quite a bit!
NHC is looking at output from all models, and the models have tended to diverge after Ivan crosses Cuba, which (understandably so) tends to paralyze decision-making and make NHC quite cautious. My philosophy has been to pick one model and go with it, rather than look at everything: the man with one watch knows what time it is, whereas the man with two watches is never sure. At FNMOC, they feature both NOGAPS and GFS model output, but I've always favored NOGAPS - GFS is too, hmmm...., quick for me.
I just hope Ivan doesn't have any tricks planned.
I've been trying to put my education to use, by forecasting Hurricane Ivan's impacts in the Tampa area, where Dwight and Linda recently retired. They have plane tickets to flee, but need as much reliable guidance as possible before making that decision.
Essentially, there are no changes from 12 hours ago. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is finally acknowledging indications Ivan's track will be a bit westwards: they've been slow to do so because I think they are deeply worried about lulling people in the Tampa/St. Petersburg area into complacency, and the models still haven't reached a strong consensus. NHC now shows the track having landfall at Apalachicola, in the Florida Panhandle. Still, the NOGAPS model is now showing landfall a bit farther west, at Panama City, so NHC may eventually nudge their forecast track yet farther west.
If I had to guess maximum wind speed in Tampa based upon the current forecast, just from eyeballing the plotted wind fields, I'd say about 45 mph. Uncomfortable sailing weather, and good enough for scattered, sporadic power outages, but nothing wholesale. Plus rain...maybe quite a bit!
NHC is looking at output from all models, and the models have tended to diverge after Ivan crosses Cuba, which (understandably so) tends to paralyze decision-making and make NHC quite cautious. My philosophy has been to pick one model and go with it, rather than look at everything: the man with one watch knows what time it is, whereas the man with two watches is never sure. At FNMOC, they feature both NOGAPS and GFS model output, but I've always favored NOGAPS - GFS is too, hmmm...., quick for me.
I just hope Ivan doesn't have any tricks planned.
Friday, September 10, 2004
Wednesday, September 08, 2004
Three Old Guys Discuss Popular Music
Over the last several days, Friend Walt has asked been taking the pulse of rock music (messages in chronological order):
Walt
This year is the 50th anniversary of Bill Haley's "Rock Around the Clock". I've been thinking about the state of rock music today.
Its easy to detect the arrival of a new phenomenon, but its harder to recognize when something fades away. I've noticed that rap stars make headlines much more often today than rock stars; and in Italy rap is more popular than rock. The other day I listened to part of American Top 40 Countdown -- the show that Casey Kasem used to do -- and there was a lot of rap, but little rock.
So I'm thinking that rock is moribund. I don't mean that it is "creatively exhausted", or that today's rock is "low quality"; I merely mean that it is no longer very popular. Perhaps rock is yesterday's news. I asked several teenagers about it, none of whom were particularly eager to talk to me, and I got mixed results. Some said rock was ancient history, some said it was very much a going concern.
Even rap is older now than rock was when we were college freshman!!
So what are your thoughts on this?
Marc
I think one consequence of the evolution of popular music has been the development of niche markets. Rock has evolved into several genres of music, and people can immerse themselves at will in their own preferred form as they please. Rock is still very much alive, but certain forms seem reserved for old folks such as ourselves - what is now called 'classic rock.' This nostalgia is an unfortunate development, because it tends to stifle creativity (just like happened with 50's rock in the 70's). Nevertheless, certain 'classic rock' artists, like Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, are getting only better as they age.
It is unfortunate that 'alternative rock' music of the 90's seemed to have died on the vine. I don't understand what led to its rapid senescence. Maybe if Courtney Love can stop making court appearances, she can rejuvenate it (she was always better than Kurt Cobain). Or maybe someone new has to come along.
Rap and hip-hop (dance-oriented rap) music goes through amazing bursts and collapses of artistry. Rap was probably at its best in 1998, when Timbaland (from Timbaland and Magoo) started producing Aaliyah's music. Wonderful artists at the time (e.g., R. Kelly, Mary Jane Blige, P. Diddy aka Puff Daddy - heck, I'll even throw in Tupac Shakur, even though I think he's overrated) took the world by storm. But then Aaliyah got killed in a plane crash and rap went into a short-lived slump. Nevertheless, wherever Timbaland goes, that's where the best rap can be found (e.g., these days he produces Missy Elliot), and wherever you hear good rap of any sort, he usually had something of one sort or another to do with it. Rap tends to appeal to the dispossessed or the alienated. It's impressive, but maybe not surprising, that it has a big worldwide following, especially among minority communities of all stripes. I understand European Muslims love rap (and rap draws, in part, on Arab musical tradition).
Myself, I was never one for nostalgia: I listen, almost exclusively, to House Music (with a bit of an industrial/pop edge). Dance music goes through its own cycles: 2003 was good, 2004 less so. But it definitely is a niche market, being much more popular overseas than in the U.S. I wonder if Kylie Minogue will retire and her ruthless sister Danii will seize power. I worry that Britney Spear's knees will force her to retire (wretched actress, mediocre singer, dancing is her only strong suit). I'm always puzzled that it is so difficult to sustain a career in Dance Music. One-hit wonders predominate.
Nevertheless, rock is alive and well, under its various guises.
John
I haven't really followed musical trends much over the years so I have to rely more on intuitive feelings to even voice an opinion. However, I would start by asking, "What is rock and roll?" Buddy Holly ad Elvis were among the earliest "rock" musicians but how was their music really defined? I stunned a friend a number of years ago by saying that I didn't see the Beatles as a rock band but rather as a folk band. While there are different definitions of the terms I've always liked Arlo Guthrie's view that "folk music is what the people sing". There are certainly broad categories that some music will fit into but I feel like the gray area between rock and other forms of music is now so broad that definitions are almost meaningless. Is Linda Ronstadt rock, folk or country? Or a combination of all three? What about Kenny Rogers? He's definitely country now but in the late 60's was definitely a rocker with songs such as "Just Dropped In (To See What Condition My Condition Was In)". So I see a continuum between rock, folk and sometimes rap and country and I find it easier to call the music that people remember folk music. That's probably a bit simplistic but it works for me.
Walt
Well John, you've gone and asked one of those unanswerable questions like what is art, what is pornography, what is sci fi, and when does human life begin?
For a couple weeks now I've been asking "is rock dead" to lots of people, and many reply as you did, "what is rock?" I don't answer; I let the people respond in their own way. But I've also been trying to define rock for myself, and I think there is no simple definition which neatly separates all that people call rock from all that people call other types of music. There are some features that each seem to apply much or most of the time:
About the Beatles: I'm with you halfway. They kept their emphasis on melody all the way to 1970, in contrast to many of their contemporaries. I do not consider much of their later work rock; rather I would call it pop. My understanding of pop is that it is "Top 40" commercial music which is neither rock, country, or folk. Whitney and Britney might be pop. Anyway, the early Beatles seem to be mainstream rock for that time: Lead electric guitar, bass electric guitar, keyboard, drums.
I think much of what you call folk, I would call pop. My picture of folk is an obsolete form which was purely acoustic, with emphasis on lyrics more than melody or rhythm (like country), and consciously modelled on supposed styles & social/political agendas of the Depression and of Appalachia.
Anyway, all of these definitions are probably bogus -- its an unanswerable question.
Marc
Just for grins, I was thinking of posting our discussion on my blog and calling it something like "Three Old Guys Discuss Popular Music," identifying each of you by your first names. Is that OK?
Walt
sure-- BTW, what do you think of our ideas?
Marc
I was thinking how arbitrary some of our categories are and how poorly they reflect the amazing plasticity of music in all its forms. It takes some real sophisticated pigeonholing to get one's hands around that particular greased pig. Counterexamples can be found for nearly every assertion. For example, even though rock relies on electric guitar, acoustic guitar can nevertheless be used to effect in rock (e.g., "MTV Unplugged"). I like Arlo Guthrie's statement that John mentioned: "folk music is what people sing." But then people can and do sing all kinds of music, such as rap, that was commercially produced and is otherwise alien to folk's spirit.
I remember seeing former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson give a talk at the University of Arizona in the early 80's. Questions and answers were getting increasingly stiff, and then unaccountably, Wilson began talking about the Beatles (Wilson had once represented the Beatles' home city, Liverpool, in the House of Commons). Wilson just wouldn't shut up about the Beatles. Yammer, yammer, yammer. I decided then that Wilson must have invented the Beatles as an accountability shield.
On the weekend, Black Entertainment Television (BET) featured their Video Music Awards. It was really impressive seeing the various rap and hip-hop groups, but I found myself at a loss of language to fully describe what they were doing - it didn't seem like rock, though. No electric guitars in sight. In 1995, I saw Chuck Berry perform here in Sacramento at a blues festival, and his rock music seemed to be a simplified, digested form of blues music - the arc between the two forms seemed fairly direct. Extending the arc from blues to hip-hop seems nearly impossible, but you just know the connections are there.
John
No problem here with your posting my remarks. I can't really add more than what I already wrote though since, as I said, I don't follow music that much. As a footnote I might mention that Arlo Guthrie's remark was made after a concert he did in Albuquerque around 1978. A reporter asked him why he, a folk singer, performed the Beatles song "Paperback Writer" and he responded that it was a folk song because folk music is what the people sing. By that definition, since most members of our generation know most of the lyrics to many Beatles songs it seems appropriate to term it folk music--even if it also fits the mold of rock or pop.
Marc
Thanks, John. The melding and blending of commercial and folk music will give music historians fits in the future, as they try to sort it all out!
Over the last several days, Friend Walt has asked been taking the pulse of rock music (messages in chronological order):
Walt
This year is the 50th anniversary of Bill Haley's "Rock Around the Clock". I've been thinking about the state of rock music today.
Its easy to detect the arrival of a new phenomenon, but its harder to recognize when something fades away. I've noticed that rap stars make headlines much more often today than rock stars; and in Italy rap is more popular than rock. The other day I listened to part of American Top 40 Countdown -- the show that Casey Kasem used to do -- and there was a lot of rap, but little rock.
So I'm thinking that rock is moribund. I don't mean that it is "creatively exhausted", or that today's rock is "low quality"; I merely mean that it is no longer very popular. Perhaps rock is yesterday's news. I asked several teenagers about it, none of whom were particularly eager to talk to me, and I got mixed results. Some said rock was ancient history, some said it was very much a going concern.
Even rap is older now than rock was when we were college freshman!!
So what are your thoughts on this?
Marc
I think one consequence of the evolution of popular music has been the development of niche markets. Rock has evolved into several genres of music, and people can immerse themselves at will in their own preferred form as they please. Rock is still very much alive, but certain forms seem reserved for old folks such as ourselves - what is now called 'classic rock.' This nostalgia is an unfortunate development, because it tends to stifle creativity (just like happened with 50's rock in the 70's). Nevertheless, certain 'classic rock' artists, like Tom Petty and the Heartbreakers, are getting only better as they age.
It is unfortunate that 'alternative rock' music of the 90's seemed to have died on the vine. I don't understand what led to its rapid senescence. Maybe if Courtney Love can stop making court appearances, she can rejuvenate it (she was always better than Kurt Cobain). Or maybe someone new has to come along.
Rap and hip-hop (dance-oriented rap) music goes through amazing bursts and collapses of artistry. Rap was probably at its best in 1998, when Timbaland (from Timbaland and Magoo) started producing Aaliyah's music. Wonderful artists at the time (e.g., R. Kelly, Mary Jane Blige, P. Diddy aka Puff Daddy - heck, I'll even throw in Tupac Shakur, even though I think he's overrated) took the world by storm. But then Aaliyah got killed in a plane crash and rap went into a short-lived slump. Nevertheless, wherever Timbaland goes, that's where the best rap can be found (e.g., these days he produces Missy Elliot), and wherever you hear good rap of any sort, he usually had something of one sort or another to do with it. Rap tends to appeal to the dispossessed or the alienated. It's impressive, but maybe not surprising, that it has a big worldwide following, especially among minority communities of all stripes. I understand European Muslims love rap (and rap draws, in part, on Arab musical tradition).
Myself, I was never one for nostalgia: I listen, almost exclusively, to House Music (with a bit of an industrial/pop edge). Dance music goes through its own cycles: 2003 was good, 2004 less so. But it definitely is a niche market, being much more popular overseas than in the U.S. I wonder if Kylie Minogue will retire and her ruthless sister Danii will seize power. I worry that Britney Spear's knees will force her to retire (wretched actress, mediocre singer, dancing is her only strong suit). I'm always puzzled that it is so difficult to sustain a career in Dance Music. One-hit wonders predominate.
Nevertheless, rock is alive and well, under its various guises.
John
I haven't really followed musical trends much over the years so I have to rely more on intuitive feelings to even voice an opinion. However, I would start by asking, "What is rock and roll?" Buddy Holly ad Elvis were among the earliest "rock" musicians but how was their music really defined? I stunned a friend a number of years ago by saying that I didn't see the Beatles as a rock band but rather as a folk band. While there are different definitions of the terms I've always liked Arlo Guthrie's view that "folk music is what the people sing". There are certainly broad categories that some music will fit into but I feel like the gray area between rock and other forms of music is now so broad that definitions are almost meaningless. Is Linda Ronstadt rock, folk or country? Or a combination of all three? What about Kenny Rogers? He's definitely country now but in the late 60's was definitely a rocker with songs such as "Just Dropped In (To See What Condition My Condition Was In)". So I see a continuum between rock, folk and sometimes rap and country and I find it easier to call the music that people remember folk music. That's probably a bit simplistic but it works for me.
Walt
Well John, you've gone and asked one of those unanswerable questions like what is art, what is pornography, what is sci fi, and when does human life begin?
For a couple weeks now I've been asking "is rock dead" to lots of people, and many reply as you did, "what is rock?" I don't answer; I let the people respond in their own way. But I've also been trying to define rock for myself, and I think there is no simple definition which neatly separates all that people call rock from all that people call other types of music. There are some features that each seem to apply much or most of the time:
1. Rock uses electric guitars more than any other type of past or present music. However, not all rock bands rely on them.
2. Any music which emphasizes acoustic guitar is not rock.
3. Rock emphasizes rhythm more than melody, and allows for much improvisation. In this, it continues the big band tradition. However, early rock had much melody; it lost favor in the mid to late 60s, when the drug scene & counterculture image took over.
4. Although rhythm is big, rock is not good dance music.
About the Beatles: I'm with you halfway. They kept their emphasis on melody all the way to 1970, in contrast to many of their contemporaries. I do not consider much of their later work rock; rather I would call it pop. My understanding of pop is that it is "Top 40" commercial music which is neither rock, country, or folk. Whitney and Britney might be pop. Anyway, the early Beatles seem to be mainstream rock for that time: Lead electric guitar, bass electric guitar, keyboard, drums.
I think much of what you call folk, I would call pop. My picture of folk is an obsolete form which was purely acoustic, with emphasis on lyrics more than melody or rhythm (like country), and consciously modelled on supposed styles & social/political agendas of the Depression and of Appalachia.
Anyway, all of these definitions are probably bogus -- its an unanswerable question.
Marc
Just for grins, I was thinking of posting our discussion on my blog and calling it something like "Three Old Guys Discuss Popular Music," identifying each of you by your first names. Is that OK?
Walt
sure-- BTW, what do you think of our ideas?
Marc
I was thinking how arbitrary some of our categories are and how poorly they reflect the amazing plasticity of music in all its forms. It takes some real sophisticated pigeonholing to get one's hands around that particular greased pig. Counterexamples can be found for nearly every assertion. For example, even though rock relies on electric guitar, acoustic guitar can nevertheless be used to effect in rock (e.g., "MTV Unplugged"). I like Arlo Guthrie's statement that John mentioned: "folk music is what people sing." But then people can and do sing all kinds of music, such as rap, that was commercially produced and is otherwise alien to folk's spirit.
I remember seeing former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson give a talk at the University of Arizona in the early 80's. Questions and answers were getting increasingly stiff, and then unaccountably, Wilson began talking about the Beatles (Wilson had once represented the Beatles' home city, Liverpool, in the House of Commons). Wilson just wouldn't shut up about the Beatles. Yammer, yammer, yammer. I decided then that Wilson must have invented the Beatles as an accountability shield.
On the weekend, Black Entertainment Television (BET) featured their Video Music Awards. It was really impressive seeing the various rap and hip-hop groups, but I found myself at a loss of language to fully describe what they were doing - it didn't seem like rock, though. No electric guitars in sight. In 1995, I saw Chuck Berry perform here in Sacramento at a blues festival, and his rock music seemed to be a simplified, digested form of blues music - the arc between the two forms seemed fairly direct. Extending the arc from blues to hip-hop seems nearly impossible, but you just know the connections are there.
John
No problem here with your posting my remarks. I can't really add more than what I already wrote though since, as I said, I don't follow music that much. As a footnote I might mention that Arlo Guthrie's remark was made after a concert he did in Albuquerque around 1978. A reporter asked him why he, a folk singer, performed the Beatles song "Paperback Writer" and he responded that it was a folk song because folk music is what the people sing. By that definition, since most members of our generation know most of the lyrics to many Beatles songs it seems appropriate to term it folk music--even if it also fits the mold of rock or pop.
Marc
Thanks, John. The melding and blending of commercial and folk music will give music historians fits in the future, as they try to sort it all out!
Tuesday, September 07, 2004
State Fair
Made a brief foray on Saturday, Sept. 4th to the CA State Fair. I traveled well-worn paths and didn't even get over to see the animals. I knew the DMTC crowd was going to be there, but I didn't know where, so I hung around the Counties Exhibits and the consumer product vendors, which together bend the fabric of space-time and act like a powerful DMTC tractor beam, and eventually they found me. Everything seemed pretty average - even the skanky posters on the midway seemed pretty tame.
For the last several years, the last Saturday of the Fair has degenerated into a kind of wilding at closing time. This year (and perhaps henceforth), and against NAACP protest (since the last Saturday is Black Culture Day) , the Fair closed early. I was hoping the rioting would merely be advanced earlier into the evening, to make an exciting close to a tedious visit, but nothing happened, and everyone went home safe and calm.
Made a brief foray on Saturday, Sept. 4th to the CA State Fair. I traveled well-worn paths and didn't even get over to see the animals. I knew the DMTC crowd was going to be there, but I didn't know where, so I hung around the Counties Exhibits and the consumer product vendors, which together bend the fabric of space-time and act like a powerful DMTC tractor beam, and eventually they found me. Everything seemed pretty average - even the skanky posters on the midway seemed pretty tame.
For the last several years, the last Saturday of the Fair has degenerated into a kind of wilding at closing time. This year (and perhaps henceforth), and against NAACP protest (since the last Saturday is Black Culture Day) , the Fair closed early. I was hoping the rioting would merely be advanced earlier into the evening, to make an exciting close to a tedious visit, but nothing happened, and everyone went home safe and calm.
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