Sunday, January 26, 2025
Opinion poll puts pressure on Starmer for closer European ties
The paper says that an MRP survey of almost 15,000 people by YouGov for the Best for Britain thinktank shows more people in every constituency in England, Scotland and Wales back closer arrangements with the EU rather than more transatlantic trade with Washington.
They add that even in Nigel Farage’s seat of Clacton, more people think the UK is better off trading more with its neighbours on the continent than with the US under the Reform UK leader’s ally Donald Tump:
The findings come as the chancellor, Rachel Reeves, on Sundaytells the Observer that Brexit has harmed the UK economy and that she is determined to claw back some of the lost gross domestic product (GDP) by reducing trade frictions for UK small businesses wherever possible. In one of the clearest statements by a senior government minister on Brexit, Reeves answered yes when asked if she was clear that leaving the EU had damaged the UK’s financial position.
The chancellor, who discussed possible ways to improve trade with EU finance ministers and others at the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, said there were “loads of external estimates” showing the negative impact of Brexit on the UK economy and added: “What I want to do is get some of that GDP back by having a better trading relationship with the European Union.”
Reeves also enthused about one specific proposal, saying it was “great”, made by the EU’s new trade chief responsible for post-Brexit negotiations, Maroš Šefčovič , who floated the idea of the UK joining the Pan-Euro Mediterranean convention (PEM). The PEM is a set of common rules for sourcing parts and ingredients for use in tariff-free trade.
Reeves said: “They would not have made those suggestions a year or two ago because they knew they did not have a UK government that was interested. So the fact that they are putting those things out there shows there is a better deal to be had than the one we have at the moment. We look forward to exploring those options with them.”
Reeves’s comments are striking because Keir Starmer’s government has been fearful of moving too fast to foster closer links with the EU because of concerns that it would boost support for Reform among Brexit supporters.
But with Reeves’s sights now fixed intently on stimulating economic growth by whatever means, the Treasury appears to be leading the charge to improve trade with the EU.
With goods traded by UK companies to and from the EU facing time-consuming and costly delays at borders as checks are conducted, with possible US tariffs and with restrictions on the free movement of labour causing shortages in key areas, the only way that we can start to grow the economy is through these closer economic links. The sooner, the better.
Saturday, January 25, 2025
Tories rush to disown Truss
The paper says that on Monday night, just hours after Trump was sworn in as president, the former prime minister, who lasted just 49 days in Downing Street, stood up at one of the official balls celebrating the inauguration and gave an impromptu speech.
They add that Truss is said to have repeated the line that Britain needs its own Trump, and praised the incoming US president for “saving Western civilisation”:
But Ms Truss’s interventions are causing alarm in the Conservative Party, with a number of Tories concerned that she is “becoming an embarrassment”. On Thursday, The Guardian reported that that current Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, had suggested at a shadow cabinet meeting that she “wants Liz Truss to shut up for a while”.
Two Conservatives visiting Washington DC for the Trump inauguration this week told The Independent that “she needs to take a holiday”, with one suggesting it should be “for at least a year”.
The scars left by the former prime minister’s disastrous mini-Budget, along with memories of the Daily Star’s lettuce campaign, still linger.
Ms Truss has not commented on the suggestions that she should disappear from the public gaze for a while, although an ally suggested that the comments were likely to have the opposite effect.
When The Independent caught up with Ms Truss at an inauguration event, she said she had “no intention of joining Reform” and would be staying with the Tories, arguing that “party support is a distraction at the moment”.
However, her conversion to Trumpian Maga politics has astonished some observers, particularly those who are concerned with culture war issues.
With Ms Truss now posing as a hardliner against trans and LGBT+ rights and diversity issues, one former civil servant who worked for her when she was a senior minister in charge of these matters recalled that she was known for her progressive views. Indeed, some reforms to transgender rights took place under her watch.
Ms Truss is a regular visitor to the powerful Heritage Foundation in Washington DC, which led the way in developing the ultra-conservative Project 2025 policy manual for the Trump administration. But her presence there has caused division among senior members of the Tory party, who are split over her past record as a minister.
One source noted: “Liz was originally against Brexit and was for David Cameron. She was the Queen of woke.”
With opportunism like that it is no wonder that Badenoch and her colleagues are keen for a prolonged period of silence.
Friday, January 24, 2025
Will Labour kill off the landmark climate and nature bill?
The paper says that supporters of the climate and nature bill, introduced by the Liberal Democrat MP Roz Savage, say Labour have insisted on the removal of clauses that would require the UK to meet the targets it agreed to at Cop and other international summits:
Although it is a private member’s bill, more than 80 Labour MPs, including several ministers, had publicly signed up to support it.
Some Labour MPs have been ordered to attend the bill’s second reading on Friday morning and to prepare speeches, to deliberately make it run out of time and avoid a vote. Another possibility would be a three-line whip to vote against the bill, leaving any rebels at risk of disciplinary action, including losing the party whip.
Nature and climate charities say the bill would introduce vital steps to tackle nature depletion and the climate crisis. Photograph: Alan Novelli/Alamy A Downing Street spokesperson said the government’s position “will be set out at second reading”.
Nature and climate charities have urged ministers to adopt Savage’s bill, saying it would introduce vital concrete steps to tackle nature depletion and the climate crisis.
Savage, the South Cotswolds MP who is also an environmental activist and a former ocean rower, came third in September’s ballot for private member’s bills, meaning she would almost certainly get enough parliamentary time for it to pass with Labour support.
However, talks stalled over Labour’s insistence at removing the parts of the bill that would make it legally binding for ministers to meet the targets signed up for in international treaties.
Supporters of the bill believed this was too big a compromise and would make the bill largely pointless. They sought to negotiate again with Labour whips, but were told there would be no concessions, it is understood.
As late as Thursday afternoon there were last-ditch efforts to find a compromise, including talks with Ed Miliband, the energy and climate change secretary. But for now, Labour MPs remain instructed to sink the bill.
This bill is the first real test of this government's commitment to tackling climate change. Will they flunk it?
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Major supermarket comes out against Labour's 'tractor tax'
The paper says that the retailer has backed farmers in their fight against the inheritance tax raid, with its chief commercial officer warning the “UK’s future food security is at stake”:
In a triple blow to the chancellor as she seeks to woo business investment to the UK at the World Economic Forum in Davos two more huge supermarkets, Lidl and the Co-Op, also called on her to pause the policy.
The interventions mean Tesco, British agriculture’s biggest customer, Lidl and the Co-Op have joined other major supermarket chains Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons in backing farmers.
To add to her woes, a new report by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) warned the policy may raise less than the Treasury hopes, with the £500m-a year-revenue forecast given a “high” uncertainty rating and likely to fall after seven years as families use tax planning to avoid the charge.
Tesco’s chief commercial officer Ashwin Prasad said that ensuring farms remained economically sustainable was “essential” not just to food security but so customers “can continue to get the great quality food they want, at a price they can afford”.
The calls will increase pressure on Ms Reeves to U-turn on her controversial tax raid. The chancellor has faced a furious backlash to her Budget decision to extend inheritance tax to family farms, which critics warn could sound the death knell for family farms in England.
The changes mean that farms valued at £1m or more would be liable for 20 per cent inheritance tax.
The Treasury says that, with tax allowances, in reality, only farms worth £3m would be affected, just 28 per cent of family farms. But official Defra figures appear to suggest as many as 66 per cent could be hit.
Thousands of farmers brought Westminster to a standstill in November when they descended on the capital to voice their opposition to the change.
Mr Prasad said: “One message is loud and clear: farmers desperately need more certainty. After years of policy change, it has been harder than ever for them to plan ahead or to invest in their farms.
“One current area of uncertainty is the proposed change to inheritance tax relief. With many smaller farms relying on APR [agricultural property relief] and BPR [business property relief], we fully understand their concerns.
“It’s why we’ll be supporting the NFU’s calls for a pause in the implementation of the policy, while a full consultation is carried out.”
I can't see Labour backing down on this one, but as the pressure increases it's possible that some of their newly elected MPs in rural seats will start to question the policy.
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
Trump fanboys see share prices rise after inauguration
Well the conversion of the big Tech companies to the cause has gone very well for them. Political alliances are already seeing US-based businesses step further into the limelight, with Elon Musk in particular a regular face - and voice - throughout Trump’s campaign but it’s not just Musk who has been involved, with former White House chief strategist labelling the Tesla boss, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg “supplicants” who “surrendered” to the incoming president.
The paper takes a look at the so-called Magnificent Seven - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - whose growth has fuelled the stock market rise across the Atlantic over the past two years, how their share prices have performed in the week up to Trump’s presidency and what happens next as the stock markets reopen after Martin Luther King Jr Day.
Alphabet, the company formerly known as Google has seen almost a 16 per cent rise in share price from when Trump was confirmed.
A 13 per cent rise for Amazon since Trump’s victory has been added to by a more short-term, but still notable, rise of 3.2 per cent in the week before he takes office.
Meta which donated $1m to Trump’s inaugural fund has seen its share price rise by seven per cent since the vote came in and flat across the last week ahead of Trump’s arrival. The company remains flat ahead of Tuesday trading, up 0.1 per cent.
Microsoft shares are up four per cent since decision day and 2.4 per cent in the past week.
The biggest winner in share price terms since Trump claimed election victory, however, is Musk-led vehicle manufacturer, Tesla.
A share price of $251 on 5 November 2024 has ballooned to $426 at close of play on 17 January - a massive 69 per cent share price increase in under three months, leaving Tesla’s market capitalisation value at almost $1.4tn (£1.14tn).
The Independent adds that even in the past week, the price is up more than three per cent.
Only Apple and Nvidia are failing to show a notable boost in share price since Trump was confirmed. Quite an interesting outcome. I wonder if other businesses will benefit as well.
The Independent adds that even in the past week, the price is up more than three per cent.
Only Apple and Nvidia are failing to show a notable boost in share price since Trump was confirmed. Quite an interesting outcome. I wonder if other businesses will benefit as well.
Tuesday, January 21, 2025
Is Trump set to get his revenge on Labour?
It is being suggested in a great many circles that one of the ways Trump will hit back is by refusing to accept the credentials of Peter Mandelson as the UK ambassador to the United States. The latest view on this in the Independent is that Trump is still threatening to reject Mandelson’s appointment unless the British government accept serious restrictions on his activities.
The paper says that Starmer is being placed under increasing pressure by the incoming Trump administration to bow to the undiplomatic demands or face a humiliating and unprecedented veto on his pick for envoy to Washington:
The Independent revealed over the weekend that Trump was considering the highly unusual move of rejecting Lord Mandelson’s credentials. No British ambassador in Washington or US ambassador in London has ever been refused in such a manner.
The biggest concern remains over Lord Mandelson’s support for close ties with China, fuelled by the UK Labour government being perceived as wooing Beijing following chancellor Rachel Reeves’ recent trip.
One Mar-a-Lago source told The Independent: “It seems that the Starmer government is trying to play a game where it sets China up as a fall back for a relationship with the US. Nobody is buying that here. It’s completely ridiculous but compromises the British government.”
Meanwhile, Downing Street has denied claims that there are splits among senior advisers in regards to Mandelson’s appointment among Sir Keir’s senior advisers.
It had been suggestd that chief of staff Morgan McSweeney had pushed the appointment and national security adviser Jonathan Powell had questioned it. But a senior Downing Street source this was “absolutely not” true.
Nevertheless, the UK embassy in Washington appear to be aware of the concerns regarding the Labour former European commissioner and cabinet minister.
Current UK ambassador Dame Karen Pierce surprised many by attending an inauguration party held by UK and US rightwing politicians on Friday evening. The Independent was told she was a late addition at her request and she was heard asking a number of guests what they thought of the appointment of Mandelson to replace her.
Her appearance also gave rise to speculation that she had attended to prevent Mandelson from going, because current and future ambassadors cannot attend the same event under protocol rules.
Lord Mandelson had been invited in an effort to allow him to meet some of Trump’s trusted inner circle and help build relations.
Trump’s inner circle have acknowledged that a rejection of Mandelson’s credentials would be “a humiliation” for the UK prime minister, who was not invited to the inauguration even though Trump has broken tradition by inviting several other foreign heads of government.
The row is linked to a wider context of strained relations between Sir Keir’s government and the incoming Trump administration, dating back to Labour sending 100 activists to help his Democratic rival Kamala Harris campaign during the presidential election.
Trump’s ally, tech billionaire Elon Musk, has also stoked a barage of social media criticism against Sir Keir and his government over the far-right riots in the UK last summer and jailed activist Tommy Robinson. There are claims in the US that Sir Keir and his government are “anti free speech”.
Given that the UK has already severed its close relationship with Europe, to lose the United States as well will leave us completely isolated. Let's hope that doesnt happen.
Monday, January 20, 2025
An alarming decline in Welsh nature
The paper says that Labour ministers have been accused of overseeing “delays, undelivered commitments and missed deadlines” by the Senedd’s cross-party climate change, environment and infrastructure committee, with one in six Welsh species threatened with extinction:
The Welsh parliament committee called on the government to publish firm proposals for how it intended to save nature, saying it currently lacked “a plan, action and investment”.
Conservation organisations who gave evidence to an inquiry set up by the committee said beloved species such as the curlew, which holds a cherished place in Welsh folklore and culture, were in danger because of a lack of effective action.
In June 2021, the Welsh government promised to set legally binding biodiversity targets, but it admitted to the committee that these targets were now unlikely to be set until 2029. The committee said England had already set its targets and Scotland was ahead of Wales in the process.
The committee found that important documents meant to guide the Welsh government’s biodiversity work, such as the natural resources policy (NRP), which sets out priorities and risks, were years out of date. The NRP was published in 2018.
Llŷr Gruffydd, the committee chair, said: “Wales’s nature is disappearing at an alarming rate. After decades of pollution, urbanisation and the impact of climate change, Wales’s nature is in trouble. One in six Welsh species are threatened with extinction.
“The unfortunate reality is that the Welsh government’s numerous plans, strategies and policies have failed to halt this decline. It’s clear that this is because there has been little investment or action to make good on promises.”
The report said the environmental regulator, Natural Resources Wales, was already understaffed – and was planning to shed another 265 jobs because of budget cuts. It said: “Years of under-investment have stretched NRW too thin, and this has clearly limited its ability to lead biodiversity recovery effectively.”
NRW is responsible for monitoring protected sites but the committee said some had not been visited for more than 10 years.
RSPB Cymru welcomed the report, particularly a recommendation that a forthcoming bill should include a headline target to reverse biodiversity loss.
Examples of species it highlighted as being in deep trouble were the swift, whose numbers in Wales were down 76% since 1995. It said Wales had lost more than 90% of its curlews in the last 40 years. The charity said more than half the world’s manx shearwaters breed on Welsh islands, meaning effective plans to protect marine environments were vital.
After twenty five and a half years in charge, one would have thought that Labour might have grasped the problem by now and was in the process of putting in place measures to deal with it. This report says otherwise.
Sunday, January 19, 2025
Rwanda scheme ICT costs revealed
The Guardian reports that the Conservative government spent more than £130m on IT and data systems for the scheme, which will never be used.
The paper adds that digital tools needed to put the forced removal programme into effect made up the second-largest chunk of the £715m spent in little over two years, behind only the £290m handed directly to Paul Kagame’s government:
They included a database for anticipated complaints to a “monitoring committee”, which was set up to oversee the deal’s compliance with human rights laws, and systems to enforce the Tories’ attempted legal duty to remove asylum seekers arriving on small boats.
Labour announced that it was scrapping the policy shortly after winning the general election, with home secretary Yvette Cooper calling it “the most shocking waste of taxpayers’ money I have ever seen”.
A Home Office official said data protection laws had caused spending to increase and new systems were needed to send Rwandan authorities biometric information, such as fingerprints.
“The Home Office had to deploy people and technology to Rwanda so that they were compliant with data protection,” the civil servant added.
“If people were sent to Rwanda and had an appeal going, the system meant they would have to wait for the decision while in Rwanda.
“If their appeal was successful, they would have been flown back to the UK, so part of those costs was setting up the IT infrastructure to get them visas and transport to come back.”
The £134m spending on IT programmes was not disclosed as part of a breakdown of spending released by the Labour government last month because it was grouped with a wider £280m pool of “other fixed costs”.
A detailed breakdown obtained by the Observer under freedom of information laws shows that £87m was also spent on staff working directly on the Rwanda scheme who have since been redeployed to other tasks.
A further £57m spent since 2022 was classed as “programme and legal costs”, which covers the court battle that culminated in Supreme Court judges declaring the Rwanda scheme unlawful in 2023, as well as the Home Office’s fight against individual challenges brought by selected asylum seekers. The Home Office source said it paid for both government legal department lawyers and external counsel, adding: “Some were solicitors crafting those agreements [with Rwanda] or dealing with legal challenges, and a few were barristers instructed in judicial reviews or appeals.
“The Home Office basically appealed every ruling against them, so the costs went up and up.”
The category also includes spending on setting up the Conservatives’ wider “new plan for immigration”, which saw external consultants hired to help plan and design the programme.
The Home Office source said the plan was organised into many “projects”, each assigned several staff.
“The law was poorly written and difficult to implement,” they added. “It required a lot of policy people hired for these jobs – mostly consultants or people on temporary promotions.”
Previously disclosed spending on the Rwanda scheme included £95m on increasing capacity in immigration detention centres, which were not large enough to hold the number of asylum seekers the Conservatives wanted to force on flights to Kigali.
An attempted flight in June 2022, and planning and preparing for further flights, cost £50m.
With that sort of profligacy, it is little wonder that new government inherited a financial black hole.
Saturday, January 18, 2025
Tories in disarray as Badenoch wings it on pensions
The paper says that the Conservative leader suggested she could back a major policy shift away from the universal promise introduced by the Liberal Democrats when in coalition with her party that the state pension will rise each year by whichever is highest out of 2.5%, inflation, or earnings:
When asked during an LBC phone-in whether she would look at the triple lock, Badenoch said: “We’re going to look at means testing. Means testing is something which we don’t do properly here.”
However, she criticised the Labour government’s move to means-test the winter fuel payment, saying it meant “people who are actually on the breadline actually have had their winter fuel payment taken away”.
Ros Altmann, a non-affiliated peer who previously sat as a Conservative pensions minister, told Sky News on Friday that Badenoch needed to reconsider her comments. “What we urgently need is clarification of what on earth she means,” Altmann said. “What does she mean by means testing the triple lock?”
She added: “The problem we have in going down the route implied – and I don’t think she probably means it – is that every pensioner would start getting a different state pension again. Whereas the whole point of state pension reforms is that there should be a basic flat rate minimum state pension and then encourage people to top it up with private pensions.
“As soon as you introduce means testing to the state pension system, you disincentivise from bothering to save in their private pension.”
One does get the impression that Badenoch is making this sort of thing up as she goes along, which makes her remarks even more damaging for the Tories. There is certainly a need to reform the state pension system so that every pensioner gets a single payment comparable to the minimum wage, but this is not the way to do it.
As one paper pointed out, what makes it worse is that by the time of the next General Election it is possible that about a third of those pensioners who voted Tory last year may no longer be with us, while a large proportion of more conservative, younger voters are being sucked into voting Reform. Badenoch cannot afford to alienate pensioners.
Friday, January 17, 2025
A looming trade war?
The paper says that Reynolds admitted that Trump’s presidency will be a “challenging time for anyone responsible for trade”, amid fears of a global trade war:
In the run-up to his election, the Republican promised to implement 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on all goods coming into the country – a figure that rises to 60 per cent for those from China.
Asked about his incoming presidency, Mr Reynolds told Sky News: “I think it’s going to be a challenging time for anyone who is responsible for trade in a big economy because of some of those pledges that were made in the campaign.”
But he added that there are also “opportunities for the UK”, insisting there are lots of things he would “like to see the UK doing more closely with the US in areas like
“If there’s an offer from the US to talk about how we can collaborate closer together on that, of course we would take a look”, the business secretary said.
Asked if he is worried about the threat of tariffs, Mr Reynolds said: “I am, because the UK is a very globally orientated economy, so the danger to the UK is actually greater than some comparable countries.
“So a lot of our work has been preparing for that, engaging early with the new administration.”
He added that the UK is in a “different position” to the EU and China, as the US doesn’t have such large trade deficits with Britain. But, he added, “we can’t be complacent, and we’re very well prepared”.
Elsewhere in the Independent, Ed Davey has urged Sir Keir Starmer to negotiate a UK-EU customs union to “turbocharge the economy” and strengthen the UK’s hand against possible tariffs from president-elect Donald Trump.
Giving a speech in London on Thursday, the Liberal Democrat leader will say such a deal would help the UK to negotiate with Mr Trump “from a position of strength”.
He will also criticise Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch for wanting to go “cap in hand” to the new US president and “beg for whatever trade deal he’ll give us”, as well as taking a swipe at Reform UK leader Nigel Farage for “fawning over Trump and licking his boots”.
Mr Farage is “more interested in advancing Trump’s agenda over here than the UK’s interests over there”, Sir Ed is expected to tell an audience in London in his first major speech of the year.
Ed Davey is right of course. The UK is not strong enough to stand alone against a protectionist USA. Only the EU has that sort of clout.
