Matheson competitive in Utah Senate

Democrats really do have a chance to be competitive in the US Senate race in Utah next year, but that potential for a close contest is completely predicated on Congressman Jim Matheson taking the plunge. Other potential Democratic nominees we looked at- even though they're well liked by voters in the state- would lose by the sorts of astronomical margins Democrats are accustomed to losing by in Utah.

Matheson would lead incumbent Senator Orrin Hatch 45-44 in a head to head, and would hold a wider lead over fellow Congressman Jason Chaffetz at 47-42.

Part of the reason that Matheson would be so competitive is that there are some signs of weakness in Hatch and Chaffetz's numbers. Only 46% of voters approve of Hatch to 43% who disapprove. He is extremely weak with independents these days, as only 27% give him good marks to 60% who disapprove. And Democrats (71%) are more unified in their dislike of Hatch than Republicans (67%) are in their support.

Chaffetz does a little better than Hatch, with 43% of voters rating him favorably to 34% with an unfavorable opinion. Independents split against him 33/47, and 65% of Democrats have a dim view of him while only 61% of Republicans see him positively. In most states a 43/34 favorability spread for a Congressman looking to move up to the Senate would be a very good start. But in a small state with nearly a 30 point Republican identification advantage Chaffetz's numbers are not terribly impressive.

The main reason Matheson is so strong against Hatch and Chaffetz is Matheson though. 59% of voters in the state have a favorable opinion of him to 28% with an unfavorable one, amazing numbers for a Democrat in one of the reddest states in the country. He's viewed favorably by majorities of Democrats (76/15), independents (58/28), and Republicans (52/33) alike. There are few politicians who pull that off. Matheson manages to lead Hatch because he wins over 20% of the GOP vote and leads by 37 points with independents. Against Chaffetz he goes all the way up to 23% of the Republican vote and holds a similar 35 point lead with independents.

Matheson is the only way this race is competitive for Democrats next year. We also tested former Attorney General Jan Graham, the last Democrat elected statewide in Utah, and 2010 nominee Sam Granato. Graham (27/18) and Granato (28/22) are both decently popular, particularly for Democrats in Utah. But Graham nevertheless trails Hatch by 21 points at 55-34 and Chaffetz by 19 at 53-34. And Granato's deficits are even wider, down 25 to Hatch at 56-31 and 21 to Chaffetz at 54-33.

If Matheson runs it will certainly be the most national attention a political race in Utah has drawn in many, many years.

Full results here

Bachmann's no Palin on the polling front

Michele Bachmann and Sarah Palin draw a lot of comparisons but there's one thing that's not really comparable between the two: their poll numbers. While Bachmann and Palin have similar numbers of voters with a favorable opinion of each of them, Palin's negatives in seven states we've polled over the last month are an average of 18 points higher. And while Bachmann's performance in those states against Barack Obama would be pretty much on par with how John McCain did in 2008, Palin does an average of 6 points worse than McCain did. In the long run as voters get to know her better it's possible Bachmann will become just as unpopular as Palin, but for now she doesn't have nearly the same amount of baggage.

Here's a look at their horse race numbers in the seven states we've polled since we started including Bachmann in all general election match ups:

State	Bachmann Relative to Obama	Palin relative to Obama	2008 Results
Florida	-9	-12	Obama +3
Montana	+6	+4	McCain +2
New Hampshire	-7	-15	Obama +10
New Mexico	-15	-20	Obama +15
Oregon	-18	-22	Obama +16
Pennsylvania	-7	-14	Obama +10
Texas	+3	-2	McCain +12
Average	Bachmann -7	Palin -12	Obama +6

-Bachmann does better than Palin against Obama in all seven states. Obama won the states by an average of 6 points in 2008 and Bachmann basically matches that, trailing by an average of 7 points. Palin meanwhile would be the biggest Republican loser since Barry Goldwater, lagging in this set of states by an average of 12 points.

Now let's look at their comparative favorability numbers:

State	Bachmann Fav (Net)	Palin Fav (Net)
Florida	36/37 (-1)	37/58 (-21)
Montana	34/40 (-6)	41/51 (-10)
New Hampshire	39/46 (-7)	31/62 (-31)
New Mexico	30/42 (-12)	31/61 (-30)
Oregon	30/40 (-10)	31/63 (-32)
Pennsylvania	34/41 (-7)	36/57 (-21)
Texas	39/36 (+3)	37/55 (-18)
Average	35/40 (-5)	35/58 (-23)

-Bachmann and Palin both average 35% of voters with a favorable opinion of them. But 58% view Palin negatively compared to just 40% for Bachmann. Bachmann's certainly not popular- but the door is still open for her with a lot of voters where it's pretty much been shut on Palin.

We're still finding in a lot of our polling that Palin is the most well liked potential GOP contender with Republican voters, even if she's not their top choice for the nomination. But Bachmann is more well respected and far less toxic, at least for now, to Democrats and independents. Either would probably be a disastrous nominee for the GOP, but Palin is on a whole different level from Bachmann.

Obama weak in Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is looking more and more like it could be a tough hold for Barack Obama in 2012. His approval rating in the state continues to be under water at 46/48. More voters have expressed disapproval than happiness with Obama on all three polls PPP has done in the state so far in 2011. And even though Obama took Pennsylvania by 10 points in 2008 the best he can muster right now in a head to head match up with Mitt Romney is a tie.

Obama's problem in Pennsylvania appears to be the 'Hillary Democrats' finally causing him a real issue. There was a lot of speculation in 2008 that they wouldn't vote for him in the general election but in the end they did. Now though his approval rating with Democrats in the state is only 74%, well below his national numbers, and with white Democrats it goes down even further to 70%. Meanwhile Republicans are much more unified in their disapproval of Obama (85%, with only 10% approving) and the President's not getting any favors from independents either who break down slightly negatively (44/45) in their assessments of him.

Obama's poll numbers are worse in Pennsylvania than they are in places like Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Mexico, all states that went Republican in 2004 even as Pennsylvania voted Democratic. The President's persistently poor numbers in a state that's gone Democratic in every Presidential election for the last 24 years probably make Pennsylvania the place where Obama should be most concerned about his current standing.

It does though look like the Republicans are going to need to nominate Mitt Romney to take advantage of Obama's weakness in the state. He fights Obama to a tie while all the rest of the Republicans, including home state candidate Rick Santorum, trail him by at least 7 points. Obama and Romney run even at 44% with the former Massachusetts Governor picking up 18% of the Democratic vote and holding 80% support from GOP voters. None of the other Republicans get more than 15% of the Democrats and Romney's the only one who gets 80% of his own party's vote.

After Romney the next strongest candidate is Michele Bachmann who trails by 7 points at 50-43. Then it's Tim Pawlenty down 8 at 47-39, Santorum with a 10 point deficit at 50-40, Hermain Cain 12 points behind at 49-37, and Sarah Palin as always bringing up the rear with a 14 point disadvantage at 53-39.

If there's one thing Obama does have going for him in Pennsylvania it's that voters don't think much of any of his prospective Republican opponents either. Bachmann has the 'best' favorability rating but it's still a -7 spread at 34/41. That's followed by Romney (35/46) and Cain (22/33) at -11, Pawlenty (21/39) at -18, Palin (36/57) at -21, and Santorum (31/54) at -23. Obama's able to tie Romney and lead the rest of the GOP hopefuls despite his own unpopularity because they are even more unpopular. It's just another reminder that with the economy still doing poorly Obama's best hope may be for the Republicans to put forth someone so unpalatable that he wins on a sort of 'lesser of two evils' vote.

Pennsylvania looks like it will be a lot tougher for Democrats than it was last time and Obama's struggles there are going to make keeping the Virginias and Colorados and North Carolinas of the world that much more important to his reelection prospects.

Full results here

Romney leads Obama in NH

There may not be a state that summarizes Barack Obama's decline in popularity with white voters as well as New Hampshire. What we're consistently finding across the country is that Obama's numbers for reelection with African Americans and Hispanics are similar to what they were in 2008 but that he's declined a good deal with white voters. New Hampshire's population is 94% white and Obama won the state by 10 points in 2008 but he now has upside down approval numbers and trails Mitt Romney in a head to head for reelection. His numbers in the Granite State speak to the trouble he may have next year in state where he doesn't have a large core of minority voters to count on to break his fall with whites.

Obama's New Hampshire approval rating is 46%, with 49% disapproving of him. When PPP last looked at the state in April voters were split right down the middle on him at 46% approval and disapproval. His decline since then has come with independents. Where previously he was on narrowly positive ground with them at 46/43, now they split against him 39/53. As is the case most everywhere Democrats (83%) are nearly unanimous in their approval of him while Republicans (85%) are just as unified in their disapproval.

Obama trails Romney 46-44, largely because of a 46-35 deficit with independents. New Hampshire is emblematic of how much more electable Romney is looking than the rest of the GOP field right now- Obama leads all the other Republicans by pretty healthy margins. He has a 7 point lead over both Michele Bachmann (49-42) and Tim Pawlenty (48-41), as well as a 10 point advantage on Herman Cain at 49-39 and a 15 point one over Sarah Palin (53-38).

Obama leads the non-Romney Republicans because even if he's not popular he's at least more well liked by voters in the state than any of them are. Bachmann (-7 at 39/46), Cain (-12 at 25/37), Pawlenty (-13 at 27/40), and Palin (-31 at 31/62) all have pretty poor favorability numbers. Only Romney manages positive ones, albeit by the narrow spread of 43/42.

Obama has to hope the Republicans nominate someone other than Romney...and he also needs to get his troubles with white voters turned around.

Full results here

Taking Suggestions

We're going to poll North Carolina and Utah this weekend. Throw your question suggestions this way.

Florida Miscellany...

-If Democrats want to take back the House next year they're going to have to pick up some seats in Florida and there's good news for them on that front: right now Florida voters prefer the party by a 45-40 margin on the generic Congressional ballot over the Republicans.

Democrats have a registration advantage in the state and right now the party's voters are staying in line- the 82% of Democrats planning to vote Democratic for Congress is almost identical to the 81% of Republicans planning to vote Republican for Congress. That's a change from last year when GOP voters were a lot more unified around their party's candidates than Democrats were.

Republicans do have a 35-30 edge with independents but they were winning by much loftier margins than that in 2010. Who knows what Florida's House districts will end up looking like but these numbers suggest the potential for Democrats to pick up some seats next year.

-One thing that may be helping Democrats in Florida, as it did in the special House election in New York in May, is that voters are opposed to Paul Ryan's proposed changes to Medicare. 40% say they're against his plan to 24% in support of it and 36% with no opinion. Independents split against it by a 42/25 margin, and Democrats (58%) are a lot more unified in their opposition to it than Republicans (43%) are in their support. This is definitely not going to be a winning issue for the GOP in Florida.

-A majority of Florida voters still express opposition to gay marriage even as much of the country moves in support of it. 53% think it should be illegal to just 37% who think it should be permitted. There's a huge generational divide on the issue with voters under 45 thinking it should be legal but far outweighed by the 65% of seniors who don't think it should be.

Floridians may not be on board yet with full marriage rights for gay couples but 2/3rds do support some form of legal recognition for them. 33% support marriage and another 34% say civil unions are their first choice, with only 31% opposing any sort of rights for same sex couples.

-When it comes to Floridians' favorite professional sports team it's all about football. 17% of voters in the state say the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are their favorite to 16% each for the Miami Dolphins and Jacksonville Jaguars. The state's NBA teams come next in the pecking order with 14% saying the Miami Heat are their top team and 11% picking the Orlando Magic. Baseball teams come next with the Tampa Bay Rays tying the Magic at 11% and the Florida Marlins coming right behind at 10%. Bringing up the rear are the state's two hockey teams with the Tampa Bay Lightning at 4% and the Florida Panthers at 2%.

-There's a more clear leader when it comes to Florida's favorite college sports program. That's the Gators at 30%, followed by Florida State at 19%, Central Florida at 11%, Miami at 9%, South Florida at 6%, Florida Atlantic at 5%, and Florida International at just 1%. Pretty embarrassing numbers for the Hurricanes given the historic success of their athletic programs as opposed to Central Florida- of course the public vs. private nature of the schools and the Knights' comparatively massive student body and alumni base might have something to do with that.

-And finally Floridians don't like LeBron James, although they do like him better than Ohioans do. 22% of voters in the state see him in a favorable light to 24% with a negative opinion. That compares to 23% with a positive opinion and 49% with an unfavorable one when we polled his home state in May.

Full results here

Perry doing better with Texas Republicans

Although Rick Perry's general election poll standing in Texas is less than impressive Republican primary voters in the state have warmed up to him over the first six months of the year and he's now the clear favorite in the state.

31% of Republicans say Perry would be their first choice as nominee next year compared to 15% for Mitt Romney, 11% for Michele Bachmann, 9% for Ron Paul and Sarah Palin, 8% for Newt Gingrich, 6% for Herman Cain, and 2% for Tim Pawlenty.

Perry's strength with GOP voters in his home state is a new development. When PPP looked at Texas in January only 9% of Republicans said Perry was their top choice, putting him in 6th place overall and well behind Mike Huckabee's 24%. But Perry's shown a lot more interest in a bid since then, Huckabee's out of the picture, and Gingrich who was in second place at 17% in January has tanked. Perry has likely picked up a lot of the lost support of his fellow southern candidates in the race.

If Perry ends up not running there's basically a three way tie at the top in the state with Romney getting 17% to 16% for Bachmann, 14% for Palin, 11% for Gingrich, 10% for Paul, 8% for Cain, and 5% for Jon Huntsman. Those numbers show what's becoming a pretty common pattern- Bachmann leads Romney 22-15 with the 'very conservative' voters who constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate. But Romney's strength in the middle- leading Bachmann 19-9 with moderates and 21-13 with 'somewhat conservative' voters gives him the overall advantage.

One thing very clear in the Texas numbers- Republicans there don't care for Ron Paul. Just 37% hold a favorable opinion of him to 45% with a negative one. It's pretty much a given that Paul's chances at the nomination are close to zero but the fact that his fellow GOP voters don't even like him takes Paul's troubles to a different level.

If David Dewhurst enters the Republican Senate field this month, as expected, he will start out as a pretty strong favorite. 40% of primary voters say he would be their top choice to 11% each for Ted Cruz and Dan Patrick, 5% for Tom Leppert, and 3% for Elizabeth Ames Jones. Although there's been a lot of speculation about Dewhurst perhaps becoming a Tea Party target he starts out very strong with the far right, getting 42% of the 'very conservative' vote. That's higher than his overall level of support. Maybe he'll have trouble with those voters down the road but it's not something that starts out as a problem for him.

If by some chance Dewhurst doesn't end up running the field is about as wide open as it could possibly be. Cruz would lead with 16% to 13% for Patrick, 12% for Leppert, and 11% for Jones.

Full results here

Bachmann surging, signs of weakness for Romney

When PPP polled New Hampshire in April Michele Bachmann was stuck at 4%. She's gained 14 points over the last three months and now finds herself within single digits of Mitt Romney. Romney continues to lead the way in the state with 25% to 18% for Bachmann, 11% for Sarah Palin, 9% for Ron Paul, 7% for Rick Perry and Herman Cain, 6% for Jon Huntsman and Tim Pawlenty, and 4% for Newt Gingrich.

Bachmann's surge in New Hampshire is being built on the back of the Tea Party. Among voters identifying themselves as members of that movement she's leading the way at 25% with Palin and Romney tying for second at 16%, and Cain also placing in double digits at 11%. Only 33% of Republican primary voters in the state identify themselves as Tea Partiers though and with the remaining folks Romney's way ahead with 33% to 13% for Bachmann, and 10% for Huntsman and Paul.

Romney's starting to show some signs of weakness in New Hampshire. His support is down 12 points from 37% on the iteration of our April poll that didn't include Mike Huckabee or Donald Trump. His favorability numbers are headed in the wrong direction as well. He's dropped a net 18 points from +49 at 68/19 to +31 at 60/29. He's certainly still the front runner in the state but he's not looking as inevitable as he did a few months ago.

Usually a 12 point drop would qualify you as the biggest loser in the poll but Romney's still in first place so that designation probably deserves to go to Gingrich, who's at 4% and in 9th place now after being at 14% and tied for 2nd place on our previous poll. He's the only candidate besides Romney who's seen a double digit drop in his net favorability. It was +9 at 45/36 in April and it's now gone down 27 points to -18 at 33/51, making him the least popular out of 17 people we polled on.

Another big loser on this poll is Tim Pawlenty. His name recognition has sky rocketed from 48% to 72% with New Hampshire primary voters over the last three months. But his horse race support has only gone from 5% to 6%. And if his strategy is to be the anti-Romney this data point can't be seen as good news- if voters had to choose straight up between the two of them they'd go for Romney by a 59-25 margin over Pawlenty.

It's hard to really identify any 'winners' on this poll other than Bachmann. Paul and Palin's support has dropped from our previous poll. Cain debuts in our New Hampshire polling at 7%, but that's worse than he was doing in most of our polling throughout June across the country. Huntsman enters at 6% and that is at least a little bit of a good sign for him- it's better than he's done anywhere else we've polled. If there's a winner on the poll besides Bachmann it's probably Perry, tied for 5th at 7% despite not actually being in the race.

A Palin free field doesn't make much of a difference in New Hampshire at this point, mostly because she doesn't have that much support to begin with. If you take her out of the mix Romney maintains his 7 point advantage with 28% to 21% for Bachmann with no one else getting into double digits.

Here's how everyone's favorability that we tested stacks up in the state, compared to April when applicable:

Candidate	Favorability (Net)	Change from April Poll
Michele Bachmann	64/24 (+40)	+20 (was +20 at 38/18)
Jeb Bush	59/19 (+40)	Not included
Rudy Giuliani	62/23 (+39)	-1 (was at +40 at 62/22)
Chris Christie	55/17 (+38)	Not included
Mitt Romney	60/29 (+31)	-18 (was +49 at 68/19)
Paul Ryan	39/15 (+24)	Not included
Ron Paul	53/30 (+23)	-9 (was +32 at 53/21)
Rick Perry	33/13 (+20)	Not included
Tim Pawlenty	45/27 (+18)	-2 (was +20 at 34/14)
Herman Cain	42/25 (+17)	+21 (was -4 at 9/13)
Rick Santorum	40/25 (+15)	+2 (was +13 at 30/17)
Sarah Palin	52/39 (+13)	+1 (was +12 at 51/39)
Jon Huntsman	25/25 (-1)	+3 (was -4 at 9/13)
Gary Johnson	9/15 (-6)	Not included
Buddy Roemer	5/16 (-11)	Not included
Fred Karger	2/16 (-14)	Not included
Newt Gingrich	33/51 (-18)	-27 (was +9 at 45/36)

-The candidates whose negatives outweigh their positives with primary voters are Huntsman, Gingrich, Gary Johnson, Buddy Roemer, and Fred Karger.

-Some candidates are becoming much better known. Cain's name rec is up 45 points from April, Bachmann's is up 32 points, Huntsman's is up 28 points, Pawlenty's is up 24 points, and Santorum's is up 18 points.

Full results here