By now, you've probably heard that the VNS exit poll service the networks use has caught a bad case of the measles, and will not be able to give us general exit poll data about the opinions of the voters, etc. It could still be used for projections, but in all likelihood, won't be, due to the general lack of credibility those numbers now have. No reputable news service (well, maybe Fox) would dare call the governors race in Florida, or the US Senate races in New Hampshire or South Dakota, based on those numbers (besides the controversy last time in Florida, in 1996, some networks incorrectly called US Senate races in Maine and New Hampshire for Democrats based on VNS numbers). So just sit back, relax in front of your computer or TV, memorize the various Secretary of State websites, stick with one TV channel (CNN is the best bet, then FoxNews, then MSNBC--if your only choice is CNBC or the networks, turn on 24 and get the results in the morning paper), cook some popcorn, maybe order a pizza, crack open a case of PBR or Old Mil (better the cheap stuff, since you may be drinking a lot), and see history develop.

Drudge and TalkingPoints have two different sets of exit poll numbers out, but both have Democrats easily taking GOP Senate seats in Arkansas and Colorado, Kirk losing in Texas, and Carnahan and Cleland both losing (BTW, you might like to put the following sites [most of which I have permalinked] on a sort of Net spincycle for the rest of the day: MyDd, DailyKos, RealClearPolitics, TalkingPointsMemo, Drudge, KausFiles, and, of all places, the National Review, which has a real neat, minute-by-minute take of today's happenings.)

Here's someone who's memorial service will be a particularly joyful one for the nation: Tom DeLay, who decided to use an election eve rally to make fun of Paul Wellstone.

A good breakdown of what the conventional wisdom may be like tonight, hour by hour, can be found here, along with a typical Beltway howler. The writer mentions that this year the networks may be more hesitant to use exit polling to call races, after the "blunder" they made in calling Florida for Gore early in election night 2000. Pardon me, but GORE WON FLORIDA !! Well, at least he did, if you tabulate a) the voters' intentions on the day of the election; or b) the actual votes, hanging chads and all. The butterfly ballot, votes that were never counted, a Jim Crow-style purging of close to 100,000 black voters from the rolls, a politicized Supreme Court: all of those factors combined to give W. a narrow victory.

So, in any event, the exit polls nailed Florida dead to rights in 2000. Where the networks blundered is when they called Florida for Bush later that evening. And don't be surprised if you read about miscounted and uncounted ballots, "felons"(ie. non-whites) being turned away from the polls, etc., in the next few days. If there is one thing that the GOP is good at, it's following a winning strategy.

Since there are fewer Senate and governors' races tonight, they're pretty easy to keep track of, so political junkies probably already have their checklists prepared in that regard. For critical House races, DailyKos and MyDD have set up a pretty handy list for your use and enjoyment. And keep watch on the early results from Kentucky and Indiana; the polls close there at 6:00 EST/3:00 PST. Lastly, for hardcore junkies, this is the one day you actually have a good excuse to visit the Drudge Report, where he posts semi-accurate exit poll data during the day.

If you're registered to vote, you might as well go out and do your patriotic duty today. I mean, it won't kill you.

If there's one thing I don't understand, it's why Democrats can't put up a decent, well-financed candidate for statewide office in Ohio.

If you want a good reason to vote tomorrow, check out the new election blog run by Jesse Taylor, which scrupulously details efforts by the far right to intimidate voters at polling places across the nation. Of course, Florida stretches the envelope in that regard. Check out somr of the attempts in Missouri and Arkansas by the GOP to encourage African Americans not to vote, a far subtler approach than simply i.d.-ing such voters as "felons".

Tomorrow's election day, and like all election days, the media and the pundits are all over themselves calling this the "most important election in __ /since 19__". Whatever. It kind of reminds me of the old Duane Thomas line about the Super Bowl, that if its such an important game, why do they have to play it again next year. In retrospect, the election of 1998 was far more important than this election: the results crippled the efforts to remove Bill Clinton from office, while assuring that most of the large states would have GOP governors when redistricting took place. Even if the Republicans win back the Senate, it will be, in all likelihood, a narrow majority, and much can still be done by a member of the minority party if he wants to obstruct, thanks to the filibuster. Furthermore, in that event, any further weakening of the economy will be blamed solely on the Administration, and Bush will lose in 2004.

The focus this time is mainly on the Senate: if the GOP picks up a seat, that party will control all three branches of the federal government for the first time since 1933. The latest Gallup poll suggests they will do it, as well as increasing their majority in the House, which would be unprecedented; the Republicans have never gained House seats in a mid-term election during a Republican Administration. Said poll gives that party a six percent edge in the generic party preference battle, reflecting a CBS/NY Times poll showing the GOP with a seven point edge. Other polls, including Zogby and the Washington Post/ABC, indicate that the Democrats have a slight edge: for what its worth, Zogby and CBS were the only polls last time showing Gore winning the popular vote. MyDD has a good breakdown of why these polls differ so dramatically; the key variant is Gallup's propensity for viewing Republicans as being more likely to vote, which skews their results to favor the GOP and tends to ignore Democratic skill in getting its supporters to the polling place. We'll know who's right tomorrow, but my hunch is that the GOP has too many close races to defend to capture the Senate, and will have to settle for the consolation of increasing its majority in the House.

Another good way to get instant horse race news is to use the News-Google search engine.

Sorry for sharing this with you, but yesterday I had my blood work done, in preparation for my semi-annual "physical" next week. My HMO, Kaiser Permanente, pretty much zips you right through. I was in and out of there in less than ten minutes, which is only slightly longer than what I anticipate the physical will be; at Kaiser, it's pretty much a blood pressure check, a testicular tug, and an admonishment that I should quit smoking and take up exercise.

Anyways, the first needle the nurse tries to stick in me breaks in two as she's taking it out of its case and putting it on the syringe; she claimed that was the first time it had ever happened. That was reassuring. The real annoying thing, though, was when she bandaged the needlemark after the shot. Rather than just sticking a Band-Aid on the prickling, she dabs a cotton ball on it, and attaches it to my arm with what has to be industrial-strength tape. To make matters worse, the ball got moved slightly when she applied the tape, so the tape ended up covering the scar, which caused immense inconvenience when I tried to get some sleep last night. The pain of removing the tape exceeds ten-fold the momentary inconvenience of the shot. It's so f-----g stupid !! For the last two days, I have had this piece of tape stuck to my arm, knowing that if I pull it off, I will lose a substantial amount of hair, and all because Kaiser didn't want to spend money buying Band-Aids in bulk.

Sorry about the light blogging the past couple of days, but the dictates of the job necessitate.

With the election just four days away, I am going to spending more time obsessing about polls, trends and other horse race minutiae before Tuesday. Three blogs I wholeheartedly recommend for those of you who view the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November with the same reverence that most people find for the last Sunday of January, are MyDD, DailyKos, and RealClear Politics. The latter two have very clear political viewpoints, and come at races from opposite sides, but both leave their opinions at the wayside when it comes to prognosticating. The best site, MyDD, does have a strong liberal bias, and seems to be picking the races through an ideological lens, with a view that Tuesday is going to be a huge night for the Democrats. However, his hypothesis is that the polls and media have consistently underestimated Democratic strength in recent elections, and that the very real advantages Democrats have had in getting people out to vote on election day will lead to some unexpected victories, particularly in House races. As a hardened pessimist, I'm not sure I buy his hypothesis, but in any event, his is an informed opinion, and well worth reading.

Still plenty of time for interested contributors to my collaborative college football blog, Condredge's Acolytes. Any Rutgers fans out there? SMU?

Maybe it's just Jupiter aligning with Mars, or maybe things change when we're on the eve of an election, but Kausfiles has actually been rather interesting of late. I guess with a down-to-the-wire horse race, he has something else to write about other than welfare "reform", trivial corrections of Krugman columns, and the satanic conspiracy that is organized labor. He doesn't get a permalink here, as he still links to hate sites, but I had to give credit where due.

Now its Howard Kurtz' turn to take a dump on the memory of the late Senator Wellstone.

Isn't it time to start lobbying the Pulitzer Committee to honor Bob Somerby? This morning, he eviscerates the mythology created by the far right concerning the Wellstone Memorial.

Is there anything more idiotic than GOP demands for "equal time" over the Wellstone memorial. First, the Fairness Doctrine was ditched by Reagan back in the '80's; there's no such thing as "equal time" anymore. Second, if you want equal time, you have to earn it, and unless there's a prominent Republican politicians out there who wants to take one for the team, you ain't gonna get it.

I was disappointed, but not surprised, that Gov. Ventura had a hissy fit and walked out in the middle of the service. Anything that would reenergize the D-FL will likely hurt his own future prospects, as well as the prospects of his political party in this election. Hence, his announcement that he will appoint a successor from that party before the election.

As far as the notion that it was somehow inappropriate to urge attendees to carry on the battle of Paul Wellstone at a memorial, all I can say is, GROW UP !! This wasn't a funeral, where jokes, laughter and cheering would have been inappropriate. This was a memorial, a remembrance of a passionate, political animal, who lived and breathed causes, both when he was a professor and later as a Senator. The service reflected his life. If there aren't people laughing, cheering and crying at your memorial, than you have lived a very sad life indeed.

Cause I ain't got a dog-proof ass: Well, maybe "Michael Kelly" is trying to be a serious, albeit lame, pundit, and not the brilliant leftist satirist that I heretofore thought. Tonight's topic is on the now-dated topic of "chickenhawks", and their disproportionate leadership behind the President's imperial designs in Iraq. He too disapproves of the term, but for reasons different than what I expounded on earlier in the month. Raising the canard that people who use the term believe that only veterans should have the right to decide when a country goes to war, he manages to dis Lincoln and FDR (both of whom would have been too old to fight against Mexico and Germany, respectively, and both Lincoln and Roosevelt did perform some legitimate reservist duties in their lifetime), while at the same time arguing that it was the Founding Fathers' desire that life-or-death decisions always be made by a clique of middle-aged men who went out of their way to avoid military service in their youth. The thing that makes Kelly, and other neo-conservatives, so disagreeable, is the manner in which they demean all those who disagree as twisted and evil, without having to make any effort to empathize with the positions others might take (ie., like Sen. Wellstone). Kelly would have been much more comfortable living in another century, say, the sixteenth century, where he could have worked with the Inquisition, and followed a calling where he could pull the tongues out of "pacifists" and "heretics" for their own salvation.

Just a reminder, the other great show from last season, 24, debuts its second season premiere tonight. Don't expect Nina to return until mid-season. Don't expect Teri to return, period. She's dead.

As if the Angels haven't already given SoCal a sugar-high to last til X-mas, the three-time champion Lakers start their season tonight at Staples against San Antonio. On paper, there is little reason to believe that a quatro is likely; Shaq will be out for awhile recovering from off-season toe surgery, and the team did nothing in the off-season to improve. Sactown is younger, and should have won it all last season. There are at least three other teams in the Western Conference that can give the Lakers a run, and if LA starts off badly, they might find themselves in a hole that it can't dig itself out of come playoff time. Boston surged well at the end of last season, and might be the team to beat from the Eastern Conference.

But I thought all that last year, and the Lakers still won.