Poker is a game of high-risk AND chance. So, luck IS a necessary part of the game, but skill is required to eventually win out!?!
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I've heard both sides of the story/argument. "Poker is all luck, it's the luck of the draw/cards!" or even, "Poker is a game of skill, luck has no bearing... a game of skill I say!"
The Merriam-Webster's Dictionary defines Skill (noun) as:
a. the ability to use one's knowledge effectively and readily in execution or performance.
b. dexterity or coordination especially in the execution of learned tasks.
c. a learned power of doing something competently; a developed aptitude or ability.
The Merriam-Webster's Dictionary defines Luck as:
a. a force that brings good fortune or adversity.
b. the events or circumstances that operate for or against an individual.
c. favoring chance.
Skill in poker requires having a proficient ability for reading one's opponent, a developed aptitude of/in making the right decisions, and the dexterity to adapt to the given (and ever-changing) environment. Being lucky or unlucky in poker depends on whether you or your opponents are catching fortunate or adverse cards at fortunate or adverse times. A winning player (at the time) will likely classify the game as one of skill in order to draw attention to his/her skillful talent. The losing player (at the time) may suggest that the play in question was luck of the draw in order to save face of their own abilities.
In a single hand of poker luck is going to prevail more often than skill. But in a tournament or a long session of play the advantage that a skilled player has from hand to hand may be minimal to begin the session but it will increase throughout the session. In any single session though it is possible for the worst player at the table to walk away a winner and the best player to lose.
Personally, I feel the skill in poker is dependent upon the player(s) involved in the game. In other words, Poker is a game of luck that is manipulated by the skill of the player(s).
Skilled poker players are going to do one of two things when it comes to allowing luck to be involved into the equation in any given hand. One: they are going to put themselves in a position to get lucky at the expense of their competitor and/ or two: they are going to avoid situations where luck has too much of an influence on the outcome.
I do know that there is enough luck involved in poker to keep horrible players thinking they are great and it's convincing those same players that others are just lucky. As far as answering the question, "how much of poker is luck and how much is skill?" I doubt there will ever be a logical answer or explanation.
Thanks to the internet games there have been some recent studies and in depth research about poker over the past few years. Until the internet play there were not many players who were open to allowing people to record, study and then report on their play, so it was difficult to get the information necessary to even have a study. Two reports from a recent study have atrracted a great deal of attention. The first was a large scale examination of over 1 million hands played. This study was carried out by the Cigital Group, a consullting firm in Washington, DC. The two main findings were:
1. Three quarter of all hands played never made it to a showdown.
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2. Only 12% of those hands were won by the best hand.
So, during this study 88% of the time a player was able to bet, raise or re-raise his/her opponent and suggest/convince that opponent that they should just lay it down (the best hand). That my friends is where the skill comes into play in poker! That doesn't mean that 88% of the time you bet, raise or re-raise someone they are going to lay it down. Luck plays a role, of course, in the impact of the random turn of a card, the flukiness of the flop, the unlikely river card. That's not only the nature of the game; it's an inherent feature of every interesting thing that people do. But what it does suggest is that the players that held these winning hands that never made it to a showdown could have done just as well holding two blank pieces of paper in place of their cards. It was their strategy (skill) that took it down.
The definitive study will not be one that tracks hands, it will track players. The really convincing data would be those that followed individuals in a variety of games over an extended period of time and found that some had consistently better results than others.
Unfortunately, it isn't going to be easy to do this, as another study of online poker by Ingo Fielder and Jan-Philipp Rock at the University of Hamburg discovered.
They examined the results of over 51,000 online players and found, to their (and my) surprise, that the majority of them play fewer than 100 hands, lose their bankroll and quit. They conclude, if you're concerned, that poker is overwhelmingly a game of skill.
In my next post I will provide responses to some studies that have been provided over the past few years.
chapelout for now.....GetSome.GIVEBACK.GetHome