THE HARRIS POLL^® #8, February 13, 2002

Moderates (40%) retain four-point lead over conservatives (36%), far ahead of Liberals (19%).
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by Humphrey Taylor

Contrary to the findings of some other polls, The Harris Poll^® finds that more people still identify themselves as Democrats than as Republicans. However, the Democratic advantage is down to five points, which equals the lowest lead they have enjoyed at any point since Harris Interactive^SM began reporting party identification in 1969.

This is the result of replies to a question about party identification asked in several of Harris Interactive national surveys throughout 2001, involving more than 14,000 interviews conducted by telephone. The Harris Poll surveys for previous years also involved more than 10,000 interviews each year. The 2001 surveys show the Democrats at 36%, the Republicans at 31% and Independents at 22%.

The long-term trend has been relentlessly downward for the Democrats. Until 1977, more than 45% of all U.S. adults always identified themselves as Democrats. This fell below 40% for the first time in 1981 when Ronald Reagan was president and now stands at 36%, which equals its lowest level, little changed over the last several years.

For this issue of The Harris Poll, the numbers cover the whole year, January through December 2001. Some other polls report that since September 11 the Republicans have equaled or pulled ahead of the Democrats. We do not find that. Since September 11, The Harris Poll has continued to show the Democrats slightly ahead with no significant change in their lead.

Since this series of measurements began thirty-two years ago, there have been relatively few substantial changes. Indeed, the most striking finding in these numbers is their remarkable stability.

However, there have been two clear shifts over these 32 years:

• Between 1972 and 1977— during and after the Watergate scandal, the Democrats increased their lead from 17 points to 27 points, as Republican support fell from 30% to 21%.
  
• Between 1977 and 1985 — the Democratic lead fell from 27% to only 9%.

Since 1985, the Democratic advantage has varied only between 9 and 5 points.

When asked whether they are conservative, moderate or liberal, a 40% plurality self-identify as moderates, four points ahead of the 36% who self identify as conservatives. Only 19% self identify as liberals. For much of the last thirty years, these numbers have barely changed. Since 1978, the conservatives have never been lower than 34% and never higher than 38%. Moderates have varied only between 39% and 42% and liberals have varied only between 17% and 20%. It is hard to think of another set of attitudinal questions that have been so extraordinarily stable.

The most likely reason why different polls show slightly different numbers on this topic is that they ask slightly different questions. It is important to watch the trend for the same poll using the same question and the same sampling methods.

THE HARRIS POLL -- PARTY AFFILIATION

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

NOTE: "Others" and "Not sures" excluded.

DECADE MEANS OF DEMOCRATIC LEAD

"Regardless of how you may vote, what do you usually consider yourself – a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or some other party?"

THE HARRIS POLL – POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY

"How would you describe your own political philosophy – conservative, moderate, or liberal?"

This issue of The Harris Poll^® is based on more than 14,000 interviews conducted by telephone within the United States between January and December 2001. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus one percentage point of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non-response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

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J15454
Q243, Q245

COPYRIGHT 2001 CREATORS SYNDICATE, INC.
ISSN 0895-7983