Predictions - Getting Emergence Before it Shows ..
or whistling in the dark.

You have to admire this kind of optimism, I think. But what on earth was he smoking when he predicted 25% up on the stock market for the first half of 2003?

Every year Byron Wien, Morgan Stanley's respected strategist, puts on his soothsayer hat and issues his contrarian predictions about the U.S. and world economy, important political events, and business trends. According to an article by Matt Krantz in USA Today (Jan. 9, 2003), Wien was correct with seven out of his ten predictions, including a third consecutive down year for the stock market and no major terrorist attack in the U.S.

His predictions for 2003, some surprising and some less so, are as follows:

1. Stocks rally more than 25% during the first half of the year;
2. Short-term interest rates rise 1 percentage point in the second half;
3. Japan finally recovers, turning Asia into the world's no. 1 economic power;
4. The European Monetary Union teeters on the edge of collapse;
5. Tech companies pay dividends;
6. The housing bubble gets even more inflated;
7. Biotech sizzles;
8. Latin American stock markets recover, led by Brazil;
9. Hilary Clinton announces she'll run for president in 2004;
10. There's no major war in either the Middle East or Asia.

Must remember to come back to this one in 12 months. Meanwhile, Thom Calandra on CBS Marketwatch is less sanguine.

Mmeanwhile, looking even further into the future, Battelle's Technology Forecasts:

Top Ten Technologies by 2005
Top Ten Most Innovative Products by 2006
Top Ten Breakthroughs for Household Products by 2007
Top Ten Challenges and Opportunities by 2008
Top Ten Healthy Home Trends by 2010
Top Ten Drivers of Consumer Value by 2010
Top Ten Energy Innovations by 2010
High Tech Haven: Forecast Predicts the Top Ten Innovations in home Comfort and Convenience in 2012
Strategic Technologies by 2020

Discuss.