:: Skeptical Notion

:: Monday, December 15, 2003 ::

Dean's Foreign Policy Speech

Dean's big speech is up, and damn if it isn't a good one. I didn't see it live, although I've been told the delivery was good and the Q&A; afterward was even better. Still, the speech is good.

Most incredible, however, is the section on his plans for dealing with terrorism and proliferation of dangerous weaponry (like, you know, nukes).
Fulfilling the Promise of America: Meeting The Security Challenges of the New Century.

The Nunn-Lugar program has been critical to securing the vast nuclear, chemical, and biological material inventory left over from the Soviet Union. Incredibly, despite the threat that the nexus of terrorism and technology of mass destruction poses, despite the heightened challenges posed by 9-11, the current administration has failed to increase funding for these efforts to secure dangerous weapons. I know that expanding and strengthening Nunn-Lugar is essential to defending America, and I will make that a priority from my first day as President.

Our new alliance will call upon all nations to work together to identify and control or eliminate unsafeguarded components -- or potential components -- of nuclear, chemical and biological arms around the world. These include the waste products and fuel of nuclear energy and research reactors, the pathogens developed for scientific purposes, and the chemical agents used for commercial ends. Such materials are present in dozens of countries -- and often stored with little if any security or oversight.

I will recruit every nation that can contribute and mobilize cooperation in every arena -- from compiling inventories to safeguarding transportation; from creating units specially-trained to handle terrorist situations involving lethal substances to ensuring global public health cooperation against biological terror.
[...]
We and our partners must commit ourselves to using every relevant capability, relationship, and organization to identify terrorist cells, seize terrorist funds, apprehend terrorist suspects, destroy terrorist camps, and prevent terrorist attacks. We must do even more to share intelligence, strengthen law enforcement cooperation, bolster efforts to squeeze terror financing, and enhance our capacity for joint military operations -- all so we can stop the terrorists before they strike at us.

The next President will also have to attack the roots of terror. He will have to lead and win the struggle of ideas.
[...]
The next President will have to work with our friends and partners, including in the Muslim world, to persuade people everywhere that terrorism is wholly unacceptable, just as they are persuaded that slavery and genocide are unacceptable.

He must convince Muslims that America neither threatens nor is threatened by Islam, to which millions of our own citizens adhere.

And he must show by words and deeds that America seeks security for itself through strengthening the rule of law, not to dominate others by becoming a law unto itself.

Finally, the struggle against terrorism, and the struggle for a better world, demand that we take even more steps. The strategic map of the world has never been more complicated. What America does, and how America is perceived, will have a direct bearing on how successful we are in mobilizing the world against the dangers that threaten us, and in promoting the values that sustain us.

Today, billions of people live on the knife's edge of survival, trapped in a struggle against ignorance, poverty, and disease. Their misery is a breeding ground for the hatred peddled by bin Laden and other merchants of death
[...]
Our campaign is about strengthening the American community so we can fulfill the promise of our nation. We have the power, if we use it wisely, to advance American security and restore our country to its rightful place, as the engine of progress; the champion of liberty and democracy; a beacon of hope and a pillar of strength.

We have the power, as Thomas Paine said at America's birth, "to begin the world anew."

We have the power to put America back on the right path, toward a new era of greatness, fulfilling an American promise stemming not so much from what we possess, but from what we believe.

That is how America can best lead in the world. That is where I want to lead America.

Go read the whole thing. Slowly. Word for word. Because, win or lose, that is the sort of foreign policy that works. It's the sort of foreign policy that progressives, that liberals, should be proud of.
:: Morat 2:07 PM ::

Lieberman Statement On Saddam Hussein Capture

Lieberman Statement On Saddam Hussein Capture:

This news also makes clear the choice the Democrats face next year. If Howard Dean had his way, Saddam Hussein would still be in power today, not in prison, and the world would be a more dangerous place.

Well, Joe, if Dean had his way you'ld be VP right now, and Saddam would still be safely contained in Iraq. In the meantime, the US Army would be hunting for Osama Bin Laden....you remember him, right Joe? The guy that was an actual threat to America? I realize George Bush wants to forget him, in favor of focusing on a country and a leader we can actually locate, but I expect a little more intelligence from you, Joe.

No wonder Gore didn't endorse you. You're a flaming moron.
:: Morat 11:52 AM ::

Military: Saddam's Capture Led to Others

Probably not quite the way the Bushies would like this to be played:

Interrogations of Saddam Hussein and documents in his personal briefcase, seized with him, have led to the arrest of several prominent regime figures in Baghdad, a U.S. general told The Associated Press on Monday. Suicide bombers attacked police stations in the capital, killing eight people as the insurgency showed no sign of letting up.

I think that Bush is running a real risk of being caught in his own rhetoric here. As long as Saddam was free, the insurgency could be laid at his feet.

I'm not sure how much luck Bush will have blaming the insurgency, should it continue, on Saddam's aides, or other faceless -- at least to the American public -- Ba'athist figures.
:: Morat 11:16 AM ::

Saddam Hussein Captured in Iraq Hideout

Good! Couldn't happen to a better man (for warbloggers out there, calling Hussein a "better man" is an example ofsarcasm. Think about it). Assuming this isn't another double, what next?

Without firing a shot, American forces captured a bearded and haggard-looking Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) in an underground hide-out on a farm near his hometown of Tikrit, ending one of the most intensive manhunts in history. The arrest was a huge victory for U.S. forces battling an insurgency by the ousted dictator's followers.

I'm just curious about one thing....how are people going to react when the guerilla war doesn't die down?

The White House has been careful to always link the insurgents and guerrillas to Saddam's regime. It's been "disgruntled Ba'athists", not "Iraqi guerrillas". Perhaps the Administration is right, and the fighting will die down. One can hope....but what happens if -- as seems likely-- it doesn't?
:: Morat 11:19 AM ::

Is Secrecy a Progressive Value?

The Washington Post has a scathing Op/Ed on the new ads, and the 'Americans for Jobs, Health Care, and Progressive Values' group behind it:

Values that don't include letting voters know who's footing the bill. The group has spent $230,000 for the first week of ads, but it won't say where the money is coming from. Under the out-of-sync reporting schedule that governs such groups, donors' names don't have to be revealed until early February, after the caucuses are safely over. Meanwhile, its identity is getting more and more mysterious: Early last week, its president was Timothy L. Raftis, a former aide to Sen. Tom Harkin; now, a new president has suddenly appeared on the group's Web site: former representative Edward Feighan (D-Ohio). The group's treasurer is fundraiser David Jones, who has worked for one of Mr. Dean's chief rivals, Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri -- but suddenly, it has a new spokesman, John Kerry's former press secretary, Robert Gibbs, which might suggest, to the conspiracy-minded, an effort to deflect attention from a possible Gephardt connection. (The Gephardt campaign says it knows nothing about the group.)

So is the money from unions that back Mr. Gephardt but don't want to be publicly connected to this anti-Dean campaign? At least some such unions have been solicited. Or is it from a few wealthy donors who don't like Mr. Dean -- and perhaps are backing another one of the trailing Democratic candidates? From Republicans who want to take Mr. Dean down a few notches? There's no way for a voter in Iowa to know, not in time for that information to make a difference.

If the Gephardt, Harkin, and Kerry links keep getting pushed, this ad has a good chance of killing Gephardt and Kerry....and not hurting Dean. Something I'm sure that Dean and Trippi are well aware of.

What goes around, comes around.
:: Morat 11:34 AM ::

Osama and Dean

With the new Osama and Dean ad up, there's been a lot of talk about it on Kos' diaries. The group airing the ad doesn't have to disclose it's donor's until February, although we know that some of Harkin's people are involved, as is Kerry's former press secretary (Gibbs) and at least on major Gephardt donor is on board. However, despite not having to disclose until February, one poster noted:

With enough eyeballs all problems are shallow.
The Dean blog has people already digging into the organization, the people, when the domain was registered, etc.

I'm sure Trippi will be able to check the blog on Monday and find a full dossier. I'm continually amazed at how motivated the legions are.

That's a good point. If the Deanies are successful in ferreting out some of the people associated with "Americans for Jobs, Health Care, and Progressive Values", there's going to be some major news next week. Bringing out the long knives isn't exactly unusual, but being caught doing things like this isn't "okay", and pretty much everyone in the party would be forced to denounce it.
:: Morat 11:26 AM ::

Dean is getting hammered

Good lord, the knives really came out. Far away the worst is the new ad by a 527 (whose leadership seems to be recent Kerry and Gephardt staffers. Big surprise, right) which uses images of Osama Bin Laden in order to attack Dean's commitment to defending America.

I expect this sort of shit from Republicans. I mean, hell, they laud Ann Coulter, whose entire career is made up of calling Democrats traitors and liars....but fellow Democrats? I call bullshit on that.

Strangely enough, I'm not so sure it's really going to hurt Dean. First off, he's got a new bat up. (Click here to donate, if the thought of Democrats attacking Democrats using Republican tactics pisses you off. It should). Second off, there are so many new attacks, on so many fronts, in such a short cycle that there's no way they can all get media play.

You've got one group slamming him for Enron "ties" (turns out Dean pushed in some tax incentives to lure insurance businesses to Vermont, instead of going overseas. Enron was one of the "captive businesses" that ended up adding to the Vermont tax rolls that way), for supposed "anti-semitism" (lovely little email there), and now the Osama Bin Laden add?

Too scattered to be effective. It's obvious that there are a lot of desperate attacks, but they're also not coordinated or focused.

Still, it's pissing me off. I never thought I'd see Democrats dropping "Willie Horton" ads on Democrats. I better see some candidates denouncing those ads, if they expect to ever get a vote from me....

:: Morat 11:17 AM ::

Simple answers to complex questions

The fine people over at TAPPED mull a bit about Dean's candidacy, and one finally asks:

Joe Trippi has a plan to win the Democratic primary, and it is working splendidly. So what is his plan to win Arizona, Missouri or Ohio? And why is Dean better-positioned to win those states than Dick Gephardt, Wes Clark or John Kerry?

Simply put: Because he's winning the primary.

Admittedly, that's not the answer he really wants. But it's a rather important one. In the end, only Dean is showing the ability to even competently run a nationwide campaign. You'd be hard pressed to find competence among the rest of the field. None of them, save Dean, has run an inspiring campaign. None of them, save Dean, has connected with voters. None of them has, in fact, done anything more than drift along on poll-tested and spun issues, uttering meaningless phrases designed to connect to rigorously selected groups...all designed to offer the least risk of blowback.

They've lost touch with the base. They've lost tough with the role of "opposition". And they've apparently never learned that there is no gain without risk.

I might be convinced that Clark is different, but as for Kerry, Edwards, Lieberman, and Gephardt...they're not running campaigns. They're trying to fit themselves into poll-driven and consultant-created roles. They're trying to fill spaces in the "narrative of the election", instead of writing that story themselves.

So, to answer the question: Dean is an actual candidate. He's got more of a chance because he's actually going to campaign, and not simply try to fill a role that becomes increasingly less useful each year.
:: Morat 9:12 PM ::

Clark and Q4

Mark Kleiman is really good, but I have a hard time buying this:

The timing coincides with the last push to win the coveted 'money primary' for the fourth quarter. I'm told that Clark is on track not merely to out-raise Howard Dean but to enter 2004 with more cash on hand, but the bigger his score in that department the more it will do to reverse the idea that Dean is inevitable.

Last I checked, Howard had 9 million more in the bank than Clark. Now, admittedly, Dean's probably spent more than Clark this quarter. But not nine million more.

Last estimates I heard had Clark on track to raising 12 million this quarter, and he about 3.5 million on hand at the end of Q3. I'm sure those numbers are lowballed, and wouldn't be too surprised to see Clark bring in 15 million. But surpass Dean?

Dean's camp has been pretty quiet about fundraising this quarter -- even to the point of actively lowering expectations, but I doubt it's from lack of success. First off, Dean had a large number of Q3 donations they counted towards Q4. Secondly, when he opted out of matching funds, he got five million in pledges. Third off, just from the bats I've seen about 1.5 million cycle through this quarter...and Dean's big party and the end-of-quarter push are yet to come. Not to mention, of course, that Dean's "offline" fundraising has risen dramatically over the quarter.

I'd expect Dean to raise at least 15 million this quarter, and can see him pulling in 20 million.

Why is Dean lowballing this number? Pretty simple, really. First off, they're trying to concentrate on Dean the Candidate this quarter. Money was vitally important last quarter because they needed excellent numbers to kill off the "unelectable" meme and to dominate the field (and thus the media coverage). Q3 was about money, because Dean knew he was going to blow away the field. Ratcheting up the media focus paid off in spades when the Q3 numbers were announced.

Q4 is a little different. If I were Dean, I'd lowball my earnings and play up endorsements, making myself look "safer" to the undecideds. After all, if Gore and Jesse Jackson Jr and all these other people endorse Dean, he can't be too liberal or too conservative or whatever the meme of the day is.

Then, come January, I'd release my Q4 numbers. If I beat expectations (expectations I'ld carefully lowered) and cleared the field again, I'd have just added another big boost to the "aura of inevitability" just as the first primaries were starting.

In Q3, Dean needed constant media attention to move from dark-horse insurgent to front-runner. In Q4 (and Q1) Dean needs a big, positive, and newsworthy announcement to grab the last of the undecideds entering the first two primaries.

Dean's trying to sweep the primaries, all of them, or come as close as humanly possible. Which means he wants to enter Iowa and New Hampshire with a solid lead in the polls, news stories about his organization and fundraising (making the rest of the field look like amateurs with little support), and a generalized feeling that there's no stopping Dean, so you might as well get onboard.

Unless Clark is raking it in by the metric ton -- and offline, at that, as his online contributions are nowhere near Dean's level -- there's no way he's matching Dean's Q4 numbers, much less surpassing him in "Cash on Hand". Dean's internet fundraising appears to be holding steady, and his offline fundraising has increased dramatically from Q3.

The only way, in fact, I can see Clark surpassing Dean's fundraising is if you add in Clark's match. I sincerely doubt that's what Mark has in mind, though, as I'd think the meme "I can raise as much money as Dean, as long as the government gives me 9 million or so" isn't going to put much of a dent in Dean's prowess...although it will set Clark up as the only candidate in Dean's league.
:: Morat 4:34 PM ::

MechWarrior Tree Fort

Okay, this is simply too cool. Must start pricing....it's for my kid! I swear! (Link via TBogg).
:: Morat 12:01 PM ::

A Deliberate Debacle

Krugman, in that shrill fashion of his, weighs in on the contract/debt issue in Iraq:

In short, this week's diplomatic debacle probably reflects an internal power struggle, with hawks using the contracts issue as a way to prevent Republican grown-ups from regaining control of U.S. foreign policy. And initial indications are that the ploy is working — that the hawks have, once again, managed to tap into Mr. Bush's fondness for moralistic, good-versus-evil formulations. 'It's very simple,' Mr. Bush said yesterday. 'Our people risk their lives. . . . Friendly coalition folks risk their lives. . . . The contracting is going to reflect that.

I don't know what's more disturbing here. The notion that the extremists and the pragmatists are openly fighting over Bush's puppet strings, or the fact that the extremists seem to be winning.

Oh, I suppose I should be upset at the notion that Bush is that easily manipulated. Then again, he was my Governor....it's not like I had high expectations.
:: Morat 11:57 AM ::

Doing my bit for King and Country

You know, George Bush is really unelectable. I think we should pass that on.
:: Morat 11:49 AM ::

Audit: Halliburton overbilled millions

Color me shocked:

Houston-based Halliburton Co. may have overbilled taxpayers by as much as $61 million for trucking gasoline into Iraq, Pentagon auditors said Thursday.
The Pentagon's Defense Contract Audit Agency said Halliburton also may have tried to charge the government $67 million more to manage cafeterias for U.S. troops than the company had agreed to pay the subcontractors hired to actually do the work.

No, seriously. Who could have expected this? Who could have seriously predicted that Halliburton, those corporate good citizens, could possibly have taken advantage of their incestuous ties to the government to bilk taxpayers out of millions?

Apparently, Congress. According to Josh Marshall, when Congress approved Bush's 87 billion dollar request, they created an office of Inspector General at the CPA to watch out for fraud, abuse, price gouging, and the like.

Luckily, Wolfowitz was there to keep such pesky auditors a long way from Hallibruton and our other "no bid" contractors.
:: Morat 11:45 AM ::

Latest SUSA Iowa poll

Daily Kos mentions the latest SUSA Iowa poll, conducted from 12/8 to 12/10. Dean's leading Gephardt 42 to 23 (a 10 point swing). Further, the poll internals show Dean having a solid lead prior to the Gore endorsement, then a big bump after it.

It's bad news for the rest of the field, as a NH/Iowa sweep cripples pretty much everyone, although if Clark can pull a very solid win in South Carolina and a good second in New Hampshire, he might come off as merely "badly damaged".

ARG released a new poll, showing Bush winning 57-30 over Dean in New Hampshire. It's a very interesting poll. First off, the only questions are Bush v Generic Democrat (51-34) and Bush v Dean (57-30). Even more so, the poll itself is of registered voters, not likely voters. I don't know enough about New Hampshire Demographics to know if the sample (170 Republican, 120 Democratic, 160 undeclared) was representative, but the use of registered voters over likely voters makes this a fairly useless poll

If registered voters and likely voters were even roughly the same, the country would look a lot different. No internals are shown, and ARG doesn't mention who commissioned the poll....but the use of registered voters, and mentioning only Dean is pretty suspicious.

Most people don't note the sample (heck, most people don't note the MOE), and without the rest of the field to compare Dean to, it's an excellent poll to attack Dean with....despite having very little validity. It'll be interesting to see who uses these poll results over the next month.
:: Morat 11:13 AM ::

Annoy Tom DeLay

If you want to annoy Tom DeLay, try donating to Richard Morrison, who is running against Delay for Congress.

For more info on Richard Morrison, visit his website or check out his interview with Off the Kuff.
:: Morat 1:57 PM ::

Score!

The Astros are going to sign Pettitte:

Andy Pettitte will pitch at home, agreeing Thursday to a $31.5 million, three-year contract with the Houston Astros after playing his entire major league career for the New York Yankees.

(Link via Off The Kuff)
:: Morat 12:36 PM ::

Back!

The surgery went smoothly. My father did have a rather badly blocked artery (99% blocked, in fact), but just the one. The doctor corrected it, inserted a stent, and my father should go home tomorrow.

I find it amazing that something that was lethal 50 years ago, necessitated a major operation 15 years ago, and still can kill you quickly if not caught in time.....can be fixed in a matter of hours, with only a few stiches.

So my dad, whose own father would have had a bypass operation for the same problem, is resting comfortably and complaining about the pressure bandage on his leg.
:: Morat 12:12 PM ::

Light blogging today

My father's surgery is this morning, so I won't be blogging until the afternoon at the earliest. No one knows how long it will last. The procedure itself -- checking out his arteries -- is pretty time consuming on it's own, but since they'll be fixing blockages as they go, how long it takes depends on what they find.

Regardless, you can tell I'm fond of the old man. It takes a lot to get me up at four in the damn morning.
:: Morat 4:01 AM ::

FECWatch on McCain-Feingold

The Left Coaster pointed out this simple chart detailing the effects of the Supreme Court's ruling on McCain-Feingold. At the very least, it's easier -- and quicker -- than reading the 300 page decision.
:: Morat 4:39 PM ::

Immature Parents

Right now, I am so pissed at my father. Anger doesn't cover it. Infuriated doesn't cover it. If the man wasn't in ICU, I'd send him there myself.

As it is, he'll be lucky if his "welcome home" party doesn't end with me breaking every one of his damn fingers.

A brief medical history: My father, like most men his age, smoked a lot when he was young. He quit around 20 years ago (as did my mother). About two years ago, at most, he started smoking again. Mainly, I'm guessing, because after he retired he started to spend a great deal of time around people who did smoke. About six months ago, my father underwent surgery to correct a bone spur in his neck. Among other things, the doctor was very adamant that he not smoke for at least a year, as nicotine would interfere with recovery.

So what do I find out this afternoon? My father, who is currently lying in ICU because of heart troubles, went back to smoking less than three months after his last surgery.

He's lucky I didn't find out until after my chance to visit with him in ICU. Next time I see him, he's not going to have nearly as enjoyable a conversation.

He's a big boy, and he can make his own choices. But I'm going to damn well be sure to let him know that continuing to neglect his health, continuing to smoke despite his doctor's advice, isn't just going to cost him. I want him to be very aware that his stupidity is likely to cost me my father, and that's something I'm not terribly happy about.

Fucking jackass.
:: Morat 2:47 PM ::

Supreme Court Upholds Political Money Law

Well, that answers one of the more interesting legal questions. McCain-Feingold is perfectly constitutional. Kudos to the Supreme Court for cutting short their summer break and dealing with this one quickly. Most of McCain-Feingold survived court challenge, including the restrictions on ads in the weeks before the election.
Supreme Court Upholds Political Money Law:

The justices struck down only two provisions of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act -- a ban on political contributions from those too young to vote and a limitation on some party spending that is independent of a particular candidate.

As per usual with campaign finance reform, I'm not sure the end result is any better. Probably not any worse. Still, judging the effect of the 527s, and even Dean's new fundraising methods, will take a few years.

I'm sure, 20 years from now, we'll be passing new legislation aimed to curb 527s and the "unhealthy effect" they have on politics. Money, sleaze, and politics as usual will find a way....even if it takes a few years.
:: Morat 12:07 PM ::

A lousy 24 hours

Well, it's been a lousy 24 hours. I've had to deal with vomiting dogs, a ticket (on the six block trip between my son's school and the house, no less!), arguments with the cable company on whether or not they sent me an actual bill, and now I learn that my father is in intensive care.

It's not as bad as it sounds, thankfully. But my morning was very hectic and stressful trying to sort it all out. The dogs, luckily, stopped vomiting on their own. The cable company agreed not to assess a late penalty (and I paid over the phone), and since I spent part of the morning getting my car inspected, I can get the ticket dismissed Monday.

As for my father, well...the good news is that, according to the tests they've performed, he has not had a heart attack. His doctor believes that the problem is some form of arterial blockage.

The hospital he's isn't really set to deal with that (either to test it with that lovely "camera up your artery" thing or fix it via a balloon angioplasty or whatnot), so they're arranging to move him to another hospital as soon as a bed opens up. Currently, he's right across the street from my work and I'll be visiting him in about 40 minutes.

He is in intensive care, apparently as a precaution. Because it's heart related, and because the blood thinner he's on ads it's own complications into the mix, the doctors feel it's best to keep him there until everything is sorted out and addressed. I can't say I can disagree. This is my father, after all...and I'd rather the doctors were overly cautious than overly optimistic.

Still, I have to say I'm shaken....Dad's been in and out of the hospital a lot the last few years, but never for anything serious. Gallbladder, bone spurs and the like. We used to joke that he's had every illness or medical problem serious enough to put you in the hospital, but not serious enough to actually kill you.

Doesn't seem quite so funny now.

I'm just not ready to face a world without my father in it.
:: Morat 11:33 AM ::

Gore, endorsements, and Democracy

Now that Saletan's taking up that spin, I've got to ask: Historically, has anyone ever been accused of trying to subvert democracy by the mere act of endorsing a candidate?

Because I'm hearing a number of people (Saletan being the most prominent) infuriated that Gore would dare claim Dean is the best candidate and that people should vote for him. To do so, according to these worthies, is to pick the candidate before a single vote is cast.

Whaaa? I picked Dean a few months back, and have been trying to convince my family, friends, and readers of this blog that Dean is the best choice ever since. Am I subverting democracy? After all, I'm actively trying to get people to forego voting for Kerry, Clark, Edwards or anyone else in favor of Dean....all before a single ballot is cast.

Admittedly, I'm not going to sway too many people. But Jesse Jackson Jr endorsed Dean. So did SEIU and AFSCME. And they are in a position to sway large numbers of people. Are they subverting democracy? If not, why is Gore?

I can't say it looks like anything other than sour grapes. Dean's winning by pretty much every standard I can think of, and people are beginning to be quite open about it. I'm sure that's painful and unpleasant news if you're not a Dean fan. But it's not "subverting democracy" to be clearly leading ahead of the primaries, and it's not "subverting democracy" to be confidant that you're going to win....

When someone suggests canceling the primaries, you let me know and I'll get all outraged with you. I think, barring a dead girl or live boy incident, that Dean is going to walk away with this one. But he didn't do it by "subverting democracy". He did it by winning hearts and minds well before it was time to pull the lever. Don't blame Dean, or Gore, because your candidate failed to do the same.
:: Morat 2:51 PM ::

Stop This Train - Who decides this election—you or Al Gore?

Saletan's always hit or miss, and today he's definetely miss. Shorter Will Saletan: "When endorsing people, try not to imply people should vote for that person. That's undemocratic."

:: Morat 2:33 PM ::

Howard Dean's Big Adventure

Open Source Politics has a nice article up on Gore's endorsement of Dean. But what stuck out the most was this paragraph:

But more importantly, I think it demonstrates the same thing that has impressed me about Howard Dean since I started following this campaign: his doggedness. Dean has been working on Al and Tipper Gore for at least a year, consulting them on a regular basis and updating them on his progress. (He does the same with Jimmy Carter; in an NPR interview recently Dean revealed he's also talked with Bill Clinton about Clinton's returning to the Middle East to broker peace.) Dean even had supporters write Gore letters at the October Meetups. That determination is what won Dean the SEIU and AFSCME endorsements, and it's a good sign--doomsayers aside--that Dean will have fight in him for the general election, should he be the nominee.

He worked Gore for a year. He was the only one that took up the SEIU's suggestion to work on the rank-and-file. Simply put: Dean's leading because he's worked his ass off to get there.

One of my biggest complaints about the 2002 election was the lack of effort by Democratic candidates. Nationally, it appeared that the DNC playbook was: "The economy sucks, therefore people will vote against the party in power. So we'll win". There didn't appear to be effort, just a lazy feeling of historical entitlement. When the economy sucks, the President's party suffers, therefore the Democrats will do well...

Maybe hard work isn't everything....but it's a hell of a lot better than sailing along counting on your good looks, your regional attraction, or your endorsements to win the election for you.
:: Morat 1:38 PM ::

Off the Kuff: An interview with Richard Morrison

Off the Cuff snagged an interview with Richard Morrison. Why is that important? Morrison is running against Tom DeLay, and with sufficient funding could become serious annoyance to the Hammer.

And I'm all for annoying Tom DeLay. So swing by and give it a read.
:: Morat 1:04 PM ::

Take Back Our Democracy -- Dean and Campaign Reform

Dean's got an interesting paper up on campaign reform. Some bullet points:

• Fix the Presidential Public Finance System
  
• Establish a Public Financing Option for All Federal Elections
  
• Offer a “Take Back Our Democracy” Tax Credit
  
• Take Back the Public Airwaves
  
• Abolish the FEC and Start Over
  
• No More Hanging Chads
  
• Embrace the Iowa Good Government Model of Non-Partisan Redistricting
  
• Protect the Voting Rights Act
  
• A National Commission to Strengthen American Democracy
  

So, let's see: More public funding, better enforcement, encouragement for average Americans to donate (and get involved) in politics, better -- and more secure -- voting methods, non-partisan redistricting -- and thus more competitive races, and (the National Commission) a look at better voting methods like Instant Runoff Voting.

Not a bad start. Not a bad start at all.
:: Morat 11:06 AM ::

Gore Endorses Dean for Party Nomination

I'm sure you've all heard the news by now:

Former Vice President Al Gore endorsed Howard Dean for the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday, adding momentum and political prestige to Dean's front-running campaign.

I wanted to wait a bit until I blogged on it, for the very simple reason that I wasn't sure what it meant -- other than being a big endorsement. I didn't want to jump to "Dean's won!" (although the Iowa Electronic Market seems to be about 75% sure on that one) without a bit of thought first. Plus it was my anniversary.

The reaction has been surprising, to say the least. Responses range from "It's no big deal" to "Dean's won already, why bother voting" to "Oh my God! We've lost! Another four years of Bush!" to "It's Gore ensuring Dean's there to lose the general, so Gore can swoop in to win 2008!".

I'd imagine that, somewhere between the chicken littles, the downplayers, the conspiracy mongers, and the overly enthused lies the truth.

My take? It's big news for Dean. It's equivalent, at least, to a the double SEIU/AFSCME endorsement. It's a big neutralizer to the "unelectable" and "big liberal" tags (none of which were sticking terribly well in any case), for one. It's not, however, the end of the primary. Dean still has to run, and still has to win....

All in all, it's big news for Dean. It's a giant endorsement coming at just the right time, and adds a lot of weight to the already settling "aura of inevitability". And, as any pollster or student of politics can tell you, perception and reality aren't terribly far apart. All other things being equal, people like to vote for a winner. Dean's "aura" is likely to charm a lot of the undecideds out of the trees, which will just reinforce the whole idea.

More and more, it's looking like Dean is snowballing...and I feel a bit sorry for the rest of the field. It's becoming more and more obvious that Dean is the only one that can beat Dean. I think the rest of the field is pretty much reduced to hoping Dean screws up, and screws up big.

So expect a lot more "gotcha" type attacks on Dean's gaffes. Heck, if you're a Deanie, look forward to them. They seem to drive Dean up in the polls, and we all know that attacking Dean seems to generate better fundraising....and he's going to need all the money he can get.

As for the rest of the field: It's a death blow to Lieberman. Not that he'll notice, as he hasn't noted that his campaign is pretty dead already. But Gore passing over his former VP choice? It says volumes about Lieberman's chances. The rest of the field will take a hit, but nothing like Lieberman. I'd imagine Clark would weather this the best. The only real worry has got to be that this is enough to push Dean ahead of the pack in national polling. If Dean breaks free, there may be no catching up....no matter the quality or your ideas or campaign.
:: Morat 10:30 AM ::