Scroogely Timing

Speaking of Kevin, he has suffered an unfortunately timed loss of employment.

I know he has talent and experience enough, especially with the blogosphere behind him, to make this a short hiatus from the working world, but it's still a shocker. The cool thing is that people have really softened the blow as far as Christmas goes.

Best wishes to Kevin!

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No Chads Here

On the off chance you've missed it, there is voting going on, or soon to be going on in some laggard categories, one of which I was nominated in (I thought I might be nominated in more than one, but hey, at least one reader likes me enough for the most obvious category...), here at Wizbang.

I recommend checking the blogs in unfamiliar categories, or even familiar ones so you have a clear idea of the competition. The links to them open in new windows for convenience in doing so. You can start voting now, then continue later when the rest of the categories are live.

I'd even go so far as to skip a category completely if uncomfortably unfamiliar with the nominees.

Anywho, go vote away!

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Wisdom

On why men die first, with added wisdom on marriage, etc. in the comments.

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Blog of Ages

Gutter girly gweilo ghosten
Alright
I got something to type
Yeah, it's better to blog proud
Yeah, than fail to gripe
All right
Ow
Gonna start a meme
C'mon!

Rise up! Keyboards pound
Blog the press to the ground
Fisk it up let's go for broke
Watch the lies go up in smoke
Blog on! (blog on!)
Drive them crazier, no can evade
Fact check brigade, just Blogrollmania, c'mon

What do you want? What do you want?
I want bloggin' posts, yes I do
Long live bloggin' posts

Oh let's go, let's shed some light
We're gonna blog like dynamite
I don't care if it gives them fright
Gonna set the press aright, c'mon

What do you want? What do you want?
I want bloggin' posts, alright!
Long live bloggin' posts, oh yeah

Blog of ages, blog of ages
Still postin', keep a-postin'
Blog of ages, blog of ages
Still postin', bloggin' postin'

We got the power, got the story
Just say you read it and if you read it
Say yeah!
Ooh yeah
Heh heh heh heh

Now link it to me
I'm Bloggin', bloggin', I got the fever
I know for sure, there ain't no cure
So write it, don't fight it, go with the flow
Gimme, gimme, gimme, gimme one more link to post

What do you want? What do you want?
I want bloggin' post, You betcha
Long live bloggin' post

Blog of ages, blog of ages
Still postin', keep a-postin'
Blog of ages, blog of ages
Still postin', bloggin' postin'

We got the power, got the story
Just say you read it and if you read it
Say yeah!
Say yeah!
We're gonna truth the damn press down, woo hoo
Down like a clown

Heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh heh indeed

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A Sad Day For Race History

Wow, this is totally unexpected. Good luck to Maripat!

I just joked with her that this means she won the race, but I won the marathon.

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It Seems D&D; Was Legion...

Even in Roman times!

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Yuck

Looks like we are getting massive snow this weekend, to the tune of 24" in some central to western parts of Massachusetts, 10" or more in Boston and points north and west of a line extending from Boston roughly southwest through southeastern Massachusetts, with something like 8" expected on the south shore and Cape on the lower snowfall side of the line. Which is a fairly standard snowfall pattern, for those not familiar with the area. It's just the amounts that are rather high.

I can only hope that a large storm early will mean a moderate winter later, as often seems the case.

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A Colorful Characterization

you are khaki #F0E68C

Your dominant hues are red and green, so you're definately not afraid to get in and stir things up. You have no time for most people's concerns, you'd rather analyze with your head than be held back by some random "gut feeling". Your saturation level is lower than average - You don't stress out over things and don't understand people who do. Finishing projects may sometimes be a challenge, but you schedule time as you see fit and the important things all happen in the end, even if not everyone sees your grand master plan. Your outlook on life is bright. You see good things in situations where others may not be able to, and it frustrates you to see them get down on everything.

the spacefem.com html color quiz

Via LeeAnn here

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CotC Reminder

Just a reminder that Carnival of the Capitalists will be hosted this week by Todd at A Penny For..., and as he notes here, please send submissions extra early this week. He would like to have it largely completed prior to Sunday, due to a game that day.

As always, send your entries to capitalists -at- elhide.com and be sure your blog and post can be readily identified. It's always a good idea to put something like "CotC" in the subject to identify it as non-spam too.

Need a refresher on what kinds of posts qualify? Have a look at the hosts and info permapage. That also lists the most recent week's location and future hosts. For instance, you will learn there that the next host after Todd is Rob Sama, and that the location of the last CotC was with Bill Hobbs. You'll see that we have hosts through May 3rd, and the latest one to sign up was Brain Brew Radio.

As I noted in this post, there is some discussion of whether to offer a generic mailing list people can subscribe to in order to receive an announcement when the latest CotC is up, and of the location of the next one. I am still looking for feedback. One thing to keep ion mind is that creating such a thing would be trivial and I don't mind doing it. I have the benefit of already having list software that I can use as an alternative to relying on the domain host's offering. The only issue with that is it doesn't live on the most stable server currently, and it sometimes just stops working until I can be physically present to restart it. But the marginal cost is free.

Did I mention don't forget to submit entries for this week? Oh yeah, guess I did...

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Happy Birthday

Happy birthday to Ninjababe, purveyor of fine cleavage everywhere.

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I Like This Result

Which John Cusack Are You?

It's an excellent movie! And the woman with the funny name who played his girlfriend is gorgeous.

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Now I know!

I had wondered why my landlord was so unhappy I planned to leave I hope this month. (I need to call the new landlord today or tomorrow if I don't hear from them first, to try to determine if we are indeed "on.")

I had wondered why Nancy and Steve, my neighbors across the hall, had been home all week.

Today there was a moving truck backed up to the front door, and they were moving out! No surprise, as they'd planned to get and move into a house last spring. But this means the landlord already has one vacancy to renovate and find a new tenant for in the next few weeks or so. I can see him not wanting us clustered too closely.

It also explains what he appears to be doing with the parking. If he is turning a section of lawn into parking as it appears, the spot where Nancy and Steve park would be the right of way for accessing the expanded parking. So that makes sense.

Of course, if my new place falls through (which I doubt; it's just fuzzy in terms of timing), he won't have to worry so much about two concurrent vacancies. And renovations. Less money in, more money out. Always a good thing. Not.

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CotC Announce List

It has been suggested that there ought to be a subscribable mailing list for announcing that a particular week's Carnival of the Capitalists has been posted, and that the next one will be at wherever, so getcher submissions in.

When Rob and I worked out the CotC idea, we anticipated the issue of not knowing the next location by having the permapage listing the hosts. In theory, everyone knows they can go there and find out who was the latest and who is next. They can search Google and it's the first hit. They can come here and it's linked at top right. They can go to most of the past CotC locations and find a link to the hosts page.

So to me the idea of a list seems like overkill, especially since there is a mailing list consisting of everyone who has ever hosted or plans to host CotC. That list is supposed to get an announcement each week when CotC has been posted, but is also for whatever rare discussions of business or ideas for CotC there may be.

So what do you think? Would you want to subscribe to an announce list for CotC? That would presumably end up with all hosts on it and would be the new place for announcing that CotC is up each week, and where the next host will be.

Let me know!

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Rambling Ruminations on Rents, Realty and Reality

Back in 1981, I got my first apartment. It was $225 a month plus heat and utilities, on the second floor of a 5-unit building in a decent location with a wonderful owner, and was 5 mostly huge rooms, a walk-in pantry, an unfinished entry room, and a small deck.

During the time I lived there, I made an average of about 1/3 of what I make now. In fact, I left the job and the apartment to go to college to be able to do better, and then it took until around 1996 to do as well in inflation-adjusted terms. That sucked.

As I have mentioned, I'm fixing to move in the near future. I found a nice apartment in a good location, on the first floor of a 2-unit building, 5 rooms but not big ones, use of part of the cellar, a couple modern amenities like dishwasher, and shared use of a deck that wraps around part of the building. Primary use, really, as the upstairs never uses it. The place is $1000 a month plus heat and utilities. So what in terms of my income ought to be $675 is nearly 50% more than it "should be."

This is a normal apartment price in the region. It's right at the far reaches of what I could contemplate spending. Which is to say I can pay it if I must, but it is not remotely affordable.

My income is probably in the realm of typical, meaning many people still make below that.

Casual observation tells me that rents in the region rocketed up by perhaps $100 on average in just the past six months or so. Which is to say, about 11% in my unscientific purely random and limited measurement.

So I assert that apartments were already too high, have increased, and are getting unaffordable to average people. Something has to give.

I've been saying housing was a bubble for over a year. Perhaps no something that will burst hard or immediately, but it will slow to a near standstill or worse. Things are too unsynchronized for it to stay up there and rising. The best recent buyers can hope for is a few years in which what they can get when selling is no less than they paid.

My impression is that this has driven rents as well. Rents based on the inflated value of property, book or actualized by sale to a new landlord, have naturally tended to rise.

Now? According to this post, rental vacancies are rising. And rents are falling?

The first I heard of this is when I mentioned how much my current landlord wanted me to stay, to my surprise. I expected he'd be happy about having the place available to renovate and rent out at a higher rate. I assumed it was my timely rent payments and unobtrusive nature, but perhaps it's the market clamping down.

Anyway, the point of all this is that the housing market is out of whack. I have been predicting house prices would stall or fall at some point, but I'd given little thought to the rental market. If a combination of fewer available renters due to increased home ownership, and what demand elasticity there is kicking in due to excessive rents, perhaps we really will see some relief.

The thing is, on a case by case basis movement is slow. When does your rent change? When you move. Or when the landlord increases it, perhaps when a lease is expiring and being renewed. It's tough to imagine a rent decreasing at renewal, but I suppose it can happen. Since knowledge is going to be imperfect, many landlords will consider their rates perfectly acceptable, and many tenants will not know better. The trauma of moving, and perhaps the cost, is such that a bit of price inflexibility is supported by it not being worth a renter's trouble to seek out and migrate to new digs.

Never mind whether we are in a tenant shortage or a housing market bust. The economics of rentals itself sounds fascinating to me, and like all economics has psychological and perceptual elements wrapped up in it. It's never about pure supply, pure demand, pure affordability in absolute dollar terms.

As for the housing bubble, Rob pointed me to this Economist article on that very topic. The article begins:

IN 1929 John D. Rockefeller decided it was time to sell shares when even a shoe-shine boy offered him a share tip. During the past week The Economist's economics editor has been advised by a taxi driver, a plumber and a hairdresser that “you can't go wrong” investing in housing—the more you own the better. Is this a sign that it is time to get out? At the very least, as house prices around the world climb to ever loftier heights (see article), and more and more people jump on to the buy-to-let ladder, it is time to expose some of the fallacies regularly trotted out by so many self-appointed housing experts.

Excellent thinking. When everyone starts thinking it's a sure thing, time to go now. Or stay out and wait for the bargains that will result from the crash.

One of my friends bought a cute little house on a little bit of land in the lower class end of a high class town early this year. I look at it and see a $200,000 house. That is what I would offer, were I in the market, with money to spend. Realistic or not, that is my perception.

It was $305,000.

I'm just floored by that. It's not a serious fixer-upper, but it needed some tweaking. I am worried for them, being certain the market will stall, if not plummet. They could be in a worse position, though, carrying a 400-500k house that's overpriced and has more downside.

Oh well. Enough rambling! What do you think? Is a crash or stall of real estate price pending soon? Are things as outrageous as I perceive them to be, or do I need to get a life (and a better income that changes my perceptions)? You think rentals will seriously go down? If they do so enough, that has implications for home sales. High rent makes a not much higher mortgage appealing. Low rent makes it another story.

Time will tell...

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The Game of the Name

My real first name and last name are #285 and #114 respectively.

Cool site!

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Jiminy Christmas! People Are Dolts...

This is just plain silly. My blogdaughter Lawren reports on an incident at her law school in which a Christmas tree and decorations in the atrium were removed under threat of lawsuit from some professors.

I agree; the more the merrier! They may be religious symbols, but they are also cultural icons that just happen to have been religiously inspired. The fact that I am of indeterminate religion myself does not make me hate Christmas, Ramadan, Yule, Hanukah, or any symbols or observations they have inspired. Hell, precursor Christmas trees and the Yule season were co-opted to make Christianity more fun and palatable to the pagan masses. What's not to like about exchanging gifts and having purty decorations at what might be an otherwise dismal time of year with the depths of winter staring you in the face?

Silly, intolerant, ignorant fools. Have you ever noticed many otherwise intelligent, educated professors are in fact idiots? Got to see that first hand when I was in school. But I digress. Go read Lawren and the links she provides.

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Today's Goofy Quiz

Maine is your state. It's pretty and nice and
quiet and not crowded. I love Maine, so do
you.


What State Is Perfect For You?
brought to you by Quizilla

When you take this quiz, be sure to click on the button to see all possible results, then scroll to the very last one and read the text. Most amusing!

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New Business Blog

There is a new business blog at bankstocks.com. It's looking good so far in that there are posts raking the Fleet/Bank of America merger over the coals. I had meant to comment about that myself. There's a post on misguided marketing to the wrong demographic. There's a post on the rental and housing markets and something likely giving soon; another thing I'd meant to post about.

It's definitely worth checking out, and I will try to post about some of the above mentioned items later.

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Kate Does The Mall

All I keep thinking is "oops!" Poor Santa. He definitely deserves a nice Christmas check.

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In Overrated Song News...

Paul has strong opinions on Hotel California. I am glad someone came out and said it, since I agree.

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Veiled or Whipped

"It doesn't get much clearer than that, does it?"

Nope. That's crystal clear. Kids are smart critters when allowed to be.

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Oh My

The question is whether they are really that imaginative or organized still. It sounds disturbingly so...

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And Here's What Happens...

When I start goofing around!

Isn't that a cute shower curtain? I got it for something like $2 at Wal-Mart 4 years ago when I moved into this place. The new place, which I should know this week will be definite or not, and when, will have a sliding door, so I won't need the curtain any more. How sad.

The camera is my father's old one, which he keeps as a spare and loaned me.

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Are You Ready For This?

These are two different digital camera shots of me at my father's house, for those of you who might be curious. The quality isn't great, but hey. And since I always get scolded for referring to myself as ugly, I won't this time. I just almost never like seeing my own picture, same as most people don't like hearing recordings of their own voices.

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AIDS Slaves

"Important work is done by free men." Just go read it.

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The Wages of Min

Via Deb's Letter of the Day I found a superlative analysis of why minimum wage laws are evil and must die now. Why hadn't I discovered The Angry Economist before now? Great stuff!

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PC and Rapid Fire

Speaking of definitions, Medicmom has an extensive set of politically correct terms for your edification.

Also be sure to check out her fire safety eye-opener!

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Foxy

This is my stepsister's dog, Foxy, always one of my favorites. She's an absolute sweetie.

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Acid Sandwich

Acidman has been on a roll lately, so I am just going to do a set of links to stuff of note over there, or you can just go read it all. You'll laugh. You'll cry. You'll wonder what's wrong with wimmen.

He discusses how women tend to be uncomfortable with their appearance, and often don't get that we are totally hot for them looking just as they are, with imperfections, a healthy layer of sweat, some hard work dirt, or whatever. Yum!

Which is funny, because I can say this and know I mean it myself - we love you for the real and whole you, not for looking like a model of toothpick proportions - but I tend to assume I am completely unattractive no matter how many times people tell me otherwise. So I guess I can understand the sentiment to a degree. Speaking of which, I could possibly be persuaded to post a new picture or two of myself from over the weekend.

Then there's this entertaining take on pronographic movies and wimmen. He makes a lot of sense. I am FAT!

Pay attention to Professor Rob while he gives an important vocabulary lesson. He makes a hell of a lot more sense than some professors. He even teaches a bit of Presidential history I was unaware of previously, however unsurprising it may be. LBJ was a vile man, after all.

Speaking of wimmen, here are some that you might call Friends of Roscoe, even when that would be blogcestuous.

Finally, I see why he once said I have crazy dreams like his. This could as easily have been one of mine.

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Moore, Meet Simmons

Michael Moore dies. Antics ensue. This is one of the funniest things I have read lately! You must go read it now.

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Respectfully Contemptuous

This is quite an interesting take on President Bush in the context of history doing it right.

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Rest In Peace

Heh.

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Poof!

You ever have a seemingly brilliant idea come to you, swirl around in your mind, allowing itself to be observed and weighed from different angles, then as soon as you stir to make a note of it, you can barely recall the gist?

I just had an idea for a new support business model that could be used by an American company employing American workers and using, in part, that very aspect as a marketing point. But that was only part of it, as I also had an idea for how to make it efficient, reduce or eliminate the incentive for the company whose product you are supporting to want to cheapen the quality of the support while at the same time having them direct business your way, and change the entire payment model.

I've just manage to thoroughly intrigue myself.

Which could very well mean I am not seeing some major flaw in the concept.

Long time readers know I have strong opinions about tech support and the way it is managed and regarded by businesses offering it on their products or providing it outsourced. This relates right into that, and was inspired thinking about my own business, which largely involves tech support in various forms. Whatever expansion we undergo will tend to move in that direction more than any other, for various reasons.

Anyway, back to work and who knows, maybe more flights of fancy.

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Posting Beats Working But Doesn't Pay

Sorry for the lack of posts. I am preoccupied with work and apartment stuff. I also think I may attempt to channel my posting urges into morning/evening mode and try to focus only on work during the day.

There are tons of things I'd like to link to out there from the past couple days, so don't be surprised if a major link post or barrage of different link posts appear later. Stay tuned...

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Another Goofy Quiz

You are naturally born with a gift, whether it be
poetry, writing or song. You love beauty and
creativity, and usually are highly intelligent.
Others view you as mysterious and dreamy, yet
also bold since you hold firm in your beliefs.


What Type of Soul Do You Have ?
brought to you by Quizilla

Via Acidman here.

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Carnival of the Capitalists Is Up

Speak of the devil! Bill Hobbs now has the latest CotC up. Enjoy!

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Home for the Carnival

I made it home. Yay!

Then I wasted no time in changing the capitalists -at- elhide.com address to next week's host, A Penny For..., since it is past the generally accepted timeframe for entries to tomorrow's Carnival of the Capitalists, hosted at HobbsOnline A.M.

The December 1 edition has not been posted yet, but no doubt it will be by Monday morning. I'll announce as much when I become aware of it.

Meanwhile, feel free to submit entries for next week starting any time!

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Jay's First Rule of Christmas Music

An artist releasing a first Christmas album must cover White Christmas, or it's not a real Christmas album.

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