Released: January 30, 2004
Kerry Holds Huge Lead in Missouri and Arizona; Clark Leads Pack in Oklahoma; Kerry and Edwards Battle For Lead in South Carolina; New Reuters/MSNBC/Zogby Tracking Poll Reveals
Native son, North Carolina Senator John Edwards is in a dead heat lead over red hot Massachusetts Senator John Kerry at 25%- 24%, with less than a week to go before South Carolina's Democratic primary. Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean enters the race in third place at 9%, followed closely by retired General Wesley K. Clark at 8%. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman and Civil Rights Activist Al Sharpton battle for the fifth spot with 5% each. Candidate | Jan 27-29 % | NC Senator John Edwards | 25 | MA Senator John Kerry | 24 | Former VT Governor Howard Dean | 9 | Retired General Wesley K. Clark | 8 | CT Senator Joseph Lieberman | 5 | Civil Rights Activist Rev. Al Sharpton | 5 | OH Congressman Dennis Kucinich | 0 | Undecided | 22 |
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding Massachusetts Senator John Kerry takes a commanding lead (45%) over other democratic contenders, with less than a week to go before Missouri's Democratic primary. North Carolina Senator John Edwards is in second place at 11%, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean at 9%. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman enters at 4%, followed by retired General Wesley K. Clark at 3%. Candidate | Jan 27-29 % | MA Senator John Kerry | 45 | NC Senator John Edwards | 11 | Former VT Governor Howard Dean | 9 | CT Senator Joseph Lieberman | 4 | Retired General Wesley K. Clark | 3 | Civil Rights Activist Rev. Al Sharpton | 2 | OH Congressman Dennis Kucinich | 1 | Undecided | 20 |
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding Oklahoma Retired General Wesley K. Clark leads the pack with 27%, followed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry at 19%, with less than a week to go before Oklahoma's Democratic primary. North Carolina Senator John Edwards is in third at 17%, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean at 9%. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman is in fourth at 5%. Candidate | Jan 27-29 % | Retired General Wesley K. Clark | 27 | MA Senator John Kerry | 19 | NC Senator John Edwards | 17 | Former VT Governor Howard Dean | 9 | CT Senator Joseph Lieberman | 5 | OH Congressman Dennis Kucinich | 1 | Civil Rights Activist Rev. Al Sharpton | 1 | Undecided | 23 |
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding Massachusetts Senator John Kerry takes a commanding lead (38%) over other democratic contenders, with less than a week to go before Arizona's Democratic primary. General Wesley K. Clark is in second place with 17%, followed by former Vermont Governor Howard Dean with 12%. Connecticut Senator Joseph Lieberman and North Carolina Senator John Edwards are in a tie for fourth place with 4% each. Candidate | Jan 27-29 % | MA Senator John Kerry | 38 | Retired General Wesley K. Clark | 17 | Former VT Governor Howard Dean | 12 | NC Senator John Edwards | 6 | CT Senator Joseph Lieberman | 6 | OH Congressman Dennis Kucinich | 2 | Civil Rights Activist Rev. Al Sharpton | 1 | Undecided | 18 |
May not add up to 100%, due to rounding Pollster John Zogby: "Tell me that Iowa and NH don't matter. Kerry's double victories have clearly propelled him into front runner status. As we launch this four states tracking, Kerry has huge leads in two states (Missouri and Arizona). He is running competitively in the other two states (South Carolina and Oklahoma). And, as of now, he looks like the only candidate who will emerge from all four states with delegates. "In South Carolina, Edwards and Kerry are running neck and neck, but Edwards must win this state. Edwards appears to be doing well among Independent voters, and NASCAR fans but Kerry is competitive with virtually every other sub-group. Sharpton is barely getting ten percent of African-American voters. While that may change, he is not Rev. Jesse Jackson. It will be hard to see how he campaigns in other states if he doesn’t pick up at least delegates in South Carolina. "Kerry holds a massive lead in Missouri. If these numbers hold, he could emerge with almost every delegate. Only Dean and Edwards appear to be within striking distance of the fifteen percent threshold. "Oklahoma appears to be Clark's best state, though Kerry and Edwards are not too far behind. Clark leads among all age groups, voters with at least some college education and white voters. In Oklahoma, Clark leads among the one and three voters who identify themselves as conservatives. "Kerry has a commanding lead in Arizona and it is across the board. Clark looks to be running an impressive second place at this point. In this first test among Hispanic voters, Kerry appears to do very well. "Dean continues to do well in every state among young voters and those who identify themselves as very liberal. At this point, if these numbers hold, Dean could emerge on February 3rd with no delegates from these four states. That would be a significant blow as he heads into Michigan." Polling results will be released daily through Tuesday, February 3rd, the date of Democratic primary elections in South Carolina, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Arizona.Zogby International conducted telephone interviews of a random sampling of approximately 600 likely primary voters statewide in each state over a rolling three-day period. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in Utica, N.Y., from Tuesday, January 27 through Thursday, January 29. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points. In South Carolina, slight weights were added to age, race, and gender; In Missouri, slight weights were added to age, race, gender, education, region and party; In Oklahoma, slight weights were added to age, race, education and gender; In Arizona, slight weights were added to age, race and gender-- to more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.
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