Shop Talk

Hot off Drudge:

Democratic Party officials now say that Howard Dean has slipped into turbulent territory, the NY TIMES is planning to report in Tuesday editions, beset by challenges and problems in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states where he was looking to nail down the nomination with early decisive wins.

Newsroom sources tell the DRUDGE REPORT how NYT's Nagourney is polishing a story about the Dean troubles.

"Dean's supporters expressed distress Monday at what many described as his faltering performance in a televised debate over the weekend, the latest in a series of difficulties he has encountered here," Nagourney claims.

"With the rest of the field working in Iowa, Gen. Wesley Clark has taken advantage in New Hampshire to move up in the polls behind Dean, drawing crowds that are beginning to rival Dean's and threatening his once dominant position in the state."

More in a bit.

Linky Goodness

FreedomSight is hosting the bi-weekly Rocky Mountain Blogger Round-Up. Lots of good stuff.

Wait for It

This story isn't what it seems:

Dozens of Iranian legislators are reported to have resumed their protest in parliament over a hard-line commission's disqualification of moderate election candidates.

Sounds hopeful, right? Keep reading:

Some sitting members of parliament were on the Guardian Council's ban on hundreds of candidates in the February 20 poll -- all allied with reformist President Mohammad Khatami, the state-run news agency, IRNA, said Monday.

"Reformist President Mohammad Khatami," eh? All that means is, they're allied with Khrushchev instead of with the ghost of Stalin.

Iran's revolution will come -- but from the bottom up, not from Parliament down.

Oh, Grow Up

Professional worrywarts now come in all ages:

The Denver City council is holding a public hearing Monday on a ballot measure that could prevent the circus from coming to the city.

If approved by voters, the measure would ban the display of exotic animals including lions, tigers and bears.

A 15-year-old girl who started a group called Youth Opposed to Animal Acts collected enough signatures to get the measure on the ballot this year.

She must not have gotten that pony for Christmas.

Tom Clancy Drool Fest

The latest in US Navy mine-hunting technology:

One of the these new mine hunting systems, the RMS (Remote Minehunting System) has already been tested, and will join the fleet next year. RMS is a miniature robotic submarine (23 feet long, four feet in diameter) that runs just below the surface, with only a mast (for getting air to the RMS's diesel engine and to hold radio antennas and a video cam that looks out for obstacles on the surface) above the waterline. The front of the RMS holds a sonar that helps with navigation by looking for underwater obstacles. RMS tows an AQS-20 variable depth (it can change it's depth to get better coverage) sonar. This system maps an area, showing where objects, that might be mines, are. RMS carries enough fuel for 24 hours of operations at a speed of about 20 kilometers an hour. RMS can be set to survey an area and return to the ship that launched it. A controller on the ship can give RMS specific navigation commands, or change earlier ones. In many cases, the RMS survey will show areas free of any suspected mines, and this allows friendly ships to go where they want to go.

Cool.

Dead Planet

Latest from the Spirit rover:

If Gusev Crater near Mars' equator has a wet history, it will be tough to prove.

Scientists picked the site for the Mars Exploration Rover mission because photos from space show what appear to be riverbeds flowing into the basin.

Ever since Viking missions in 1975 failed to detect biological life on the Red Planet, NASA has focused on finding water as a first step toward finding life.

Now, the Spirit rover is standing on its lander in the crater, poised to move onto Martian soil this week.

But the flat desert where the Spirit rover sits is dotted with rocks that seem to be volcanic basalts - not the layered sedimentary rocks that are typically found after a lake dried up.

No sign of Princess Thuvia, either.

WWFD?

Virginia Postrel summons the ghost of a "dead Austrian economist" to participate in the debate over gay marriage:

[Friedrich] Hayek wrote eloquently about the useful authority of culture and the dangers of a social-engineering state seeking to crush the organic arrangements of society," noted NRO's Jonah Goldberg. "It seems to me that the conservative argument against gay marriage is often the true Hayekian one."

But Hayek was also a classical liberal, appreciative of the importance, to both individuals and societies, of Millsian "experiments in living." He believed that social and economic institutions did and should evolve as human beings learned more about the world and each other. "While stressing that social institutions -- themselves the result of an evolutionary process -- cannot and should not be simply thrown out and redesigned at will, Hayek insisted that we run terrible risks when we seek to limit the choices people make," countered Reason's Nick Gillespie. "That's because the act of choosing is the very basis of a flourishing society."

A fascinating article -- check it out.

Required Reading

Krauthammer.

Support Our Troops?

Also from Sully, the latest madness found on IndyMedia:

(I've saved the Photoshop image here, in case they pull it. As always, click for the full-size version.)

UPDATE: For those who asked, here's who the Myrmidon were.

Long Way Down

Another observation from last night's debate, this time from Sullivan:

There's no guarantee that Sharpton will support the nominee, or won't demand embarrassing, election-losing concessions from the platform if he does. He'll also get a big speaking slot at the convention - or use the negotiations as more street theater. It truly is back to 1988 - as farce. But unlike 1988, the Democratic nominee will not be able to shun Sharpton. The Dems are now dependent on massive black support just to be competitive in many states - which gives Sharpton more leverage than even Jesse Jackson once had.

Can no one save this party?

New Blogs

The Altasphere has launched a group-blog devoted to Ayn Rand-related subjects. It's the Ayn Rand Meta-Blog, and it's worth a read.

Also, The Atlaspere's Andrew Schwartz landed an interview with France's Sabine Herold. She's pretty, clean, and libertine -- everything you could ever want in a French woman.

"I Am Mr. Black People."

We must be at last have arrived at the end of the beginning -- of the primary season, that is. At last night's debate, the candidates finally went after each other on race:

Under fire in a campaign debate, Howard Dean conceded grudgingly Sunday night that he never named a black or Latino to his cabinet during nearly 12 years as governor of Vermont.

"If you want to lecture people on race, you ought to have the background and track record to do that," Al Sharpton snapped at the Democratic presidential front-runner in an emotionally charged exchange in the final debate before next week's kick-off Iowa caucuses.

"I will take a backseat to no one in my commitment to civil rights in the United States of America," Dean said moments later, eager to have the last word.

You know what I wish Dean would have said? "Look, you race-hustler, Vermont is 98% white, and so was my administration. You know it, I know it, the voters know, and we all know that this party is going to self-destruct if it keeps on the path you're leading it on."

A statement like that would have been a Sister Souljah moment for Dean, and could have made him much more appealing to those ignorant hicks -- er, Confederate-flag waving Southerners -- who he claims he wants support from.

Instead. . . instead we got more of the usual -- loud and angry capitulation.

End Game

Russia continues headlong into its new authoritarianism:

With President Vladimir Putin virtually uncontested and democratic procedures dramatically compromised, the liberal parties were considering boycotting the presidential election. Until Khakamada's self-nomination, the choices for Russian liberals were confined to voting against all candidates or abstaining from voting altogether. Putin's "rivals" were picked by his aides to better set off the Russian president. As a result, the forthcoming race had begun to look like an absurd joke.

Two veteran presidential candidates, Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov and the ultranationalist buffoon Vladimir Zhirinovsky, will not run. The two seasoned political players may have known better than to come out as Putin's direct opponents. Rumor has it that they made their decisions after "consultations" in the Kremlin. Putin's aides may have indeed disliked the idea of the incumbent being opposed by politicians with tangible support, especially ugly ones such as Zhirinovsky.

The Kremlin has effective leverage over party leaders: It may easily strip any party of financing. With oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky in jail, no businessman in his right mind would sponsor a party without Kremlin approval. Defiance of the Kremlin has become very unpopular among the Russian elites, business and political alike.

I almost typed, "headlong into one-party rule," but decided against it.

From what I've read, Putin doesn't seem to have much of a real party. He has his Kremlin clique, but no real program. Oh, he has some nationalist rhetoric, some anti-business pogroms, and. . . well, that's about it. His vision is for a "strong Russia," which really translates into English as a "strong Putin."

Really though, there's not much for us to be frightened of while Putin runs the show. He can be counted on to act towards us like a weaker, slightly more reasonable France. What should worry you is what comes after Putin -- and how.

When you build a one-man, ideal-free party, as he has done, he'll leave no political infrastructure to support Russia when he's gone. He'll be President-for-Life, I'm sure -- but whether by natural causes or coup flu, eventually he'll pass from the scene. Then Russia could very well be left right where it was in 1991.

What a waste.

Spring Offensive?

Phil Carter on US unit rotation in Iraq:

Could this spike in U.S. troop strength be intended to facilitate a spring offensive against the Iraqi insurgency?

The answer is probably yes, with a couple of reservations. To date, we still have not imposed the kind of police presence we had in either Bosnia or Kosovo in Iraq -- we just haven't had the troops on the ground to put that kind of per-capita manpower on the street. There are some areas of Iraq, such as Samarra and elsewhere in the Sunni Triangle, where even reporters dare not go these days. I conceptualize these areas like South Central L.A. -- bad areas in need of substantial patrolling in order to make them safe. Having an extra 100,000 troops on the ground will enable us to do the kind of security operations we've always wanted to do, and to focus large amounts of manpower on discrete areas in order to destroy any nascent insurgencies in those locations.

Read the whole thing.

Vote No

Radley Balko finds yet another reason not to be a Republican.

New Blogs

Whoknew is today's New-to-Me blog. Be sure to check out this Photoshop post.

Shop Talk II

Curious:

As Dean's fortunes have risen, his appearances in South Carolina have fallen. Since a debate there in May, Dean has been back just twice. Dean � one of the most organized and well-funded candidates in every other early primary state � had just two paid staffers on the ground and no campaign office as of early December. Yes, as his national fortunes have risen, so have his poll numbers in South Carolina, but they're nowhere near his Iowa or New Hampshire levels.

That's from Michael Graham, writing for NRO.

Two explanations come immediately to mind:

1. Dean is unofficially bypassing South Carolina.

2. Dean's internet-savvy campaign is mobile enough to move quickly from state-to-state.

The second possibility strikes me as the more likely one. Since the South Carolina primary doesn't require the kind of one-on-one voter contact a candidate needs to win in Iowa or New Hamphire, Dean could easily shift staff, volunteers, and supplies there in JIT fashion.

But don't completely discount the first one, either. Why? Because Dean might just do horribly (expectations-wise) in South Carolina. Zogby -- who in my opinion does some of the best tracking polls -- has Dean in a margin-of-error four-way tie with Lieberman, Clark, and Gephardt. By not putting a bunch of resources there, Dean accomplishes two things: he doesn't waste a whole bunch of resources; and, he lowers expectations.

Furthermore, SC isn't a must-win for Dean. Edwards, the North Carolina boy, has to win there, or he's probably finished. Clark, having written off Iowa has to come in second in NH and first or second in SC if he wants to become the unDean candidate. But Dean himself? It'd be nice for him to knock off two challengers in one state, but he can't count it doing so.

I'll check with Graham after the NH vote, and then we'll know for sure.

Shop Talk

So why is something as seemingly boring as a series of causcuses held in a small state really so damn exciting? The Washington Post's Dan Balz explains:

The Dean field operatives have purchased mountains of bottled water and granola bars, and cell phones and flashlights by the dozen. They have established 13 "fire bases" around the perimeter of the state to process incoming volunteers, rented eight-passenger vans and 15-passenger vans and secured winterized scout camps and YMCA camps in strategic locations to house the volunteers against Iowa's sometimes brutally cold nights.

Connolly set up "flyaway teams" that can be deployed to fix problems around the state, and military acronyms abound, such as PBIB, for "Phone Bank in a Box," which allows the campaign to set up a temporary phone bank in a county rather than lay costly phone lines. "I organized the state much like you'd send out Special Forces A teams," Connolly said.

Then there's the Gephardt campaign:

Gephardt's campaign is almost wholly dependent on the rest of the labor movement -- 21 international unions joined under the umbrella of the Alliance for Economic Justice, which has set up headquarters at a hotel on the north side of town. Gephardt also has the support of the Iowa chapter of the United Autoworkers, a proven force in Iowa politics.

The international unions have handpicked some of their best organizers and deployed them to Iowa. By next weekend, they hope to have 800 or more organizers on the ground.

"They're picked because they're the top political organizers from their union in their particular city," said Chuck Rocha, Gephardt's labor coordinator and political director of the United Steelworkers of America. "They brought the best of the best to Iowa."

Finally, there's Kerry, who could pull a second-place upset:

Every campaign is looking for new caucus attendees. Kerry, a decorated combat veteran of the Vietnam War, has targeted veterans around the state and sent videos to 26,000 of them, courting them more directly than anyone has ever done.

And we still have a week to go. This is gonna be a fun one.

Almost Forgot

Somebody just reminded me that today marks two years of blogging.

In internet years, that makes me eligable for Social Security. So where's my money?

Guilty Pleasures

With the exception of Queer Eye for the Straight Guy, I just don't watch reality TV.

Until last night.

Saw a promo that Friends was new last night, so Melissa and I settled in on the sofa to watch. (In my defense, I know that it isn't as good or as funny as it was the first three or four seasons. But I've got nine years invested in the show, and I'll be damned if I'll stop watching now. Besides, after that uninteresting second season of Enterprise, the only shows I still watch are Friends, Will & Grace, QE, and E/R. (And yes I know E/R has gotten old, too -- but the same argument holds for it as holds for Friends.))

Anyway.

We were left with the same choice we have every Thursday night -- what to do in the half hour between Friends and Will & Grace, and the other half hour between Will & Grace and E/R. Then we noticed there was no Will & Grace. Instead, 90 minutes of Donald Trump and The Apprentice.

Uh-oh. I'd blogged enough for one day, and 90 minutes just isn't enough time for a good movie -- especially since we'd have had to move our lazy butts downstairs to the big HDTV to watch one. 90 minutes to kill. Nothing to kill it with.

Might as well watch the Donald make an ass out of himself.

And -- surprise! -- the show was pretty damn good. The Trump wanna-bes were mostly an uninteresting lot. We couldn't really cheer for any of them -- although we did have a great time watching Sam squirm. So what made the show? The last thing I would've expected: The Donald.

Oh, the tour of his god-awful everything-that-glitters-really-is-18k-gold home was painful. When he read his cue cards, I wanted to smack him with a brick. But the last 25 minutes, with Trump and his two executives discussing the day's accomplishments with the wanna-bes, was terrific entertainment. Not only that, it was a short & sharp education on how personnel decisions are made.

Fire the male team boss, because his team got shellacked by the girls? Or should you give him another chance, because he stepped up to lead his team? Get rid of the sycophantic go-getter who everyone hates? Or do you want to see what he can do on a tighter leash?

I can't say I'll become a regular viewer. The show is moving to Wednesday nights, and that's usually a movie night around the VodkaHome. But I might just tape it, if only to watch the Donald in his boardroom at the end of each show.

Hot Off the Press

It's official:

Iowa Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin will endorse presidential front-runner Howard Dean on Friday, political sources said, giving the former Vermont governor a huge boost 10 days before the Iowa caucuses.

An announcement is scheduled for 3 p.m. CST at Dean's Iowa headquarters, sources said, ending weeks of speculation and public agonizing about what the four-term senator would do.

The endorsement gives Dean access to Harkin's strong state organization and the seal of approval from Iowa's most respected Democratic voice, further cementing his credentials with party heavyweights in Washington and Iowa.

(Hat tip to Steven Taylor.)

Convenient

Mark Steyn on Dean's anti-war stance:

Whether consciously or not, [Howard Dean] seemed to figure out that the shrewdest way to tap into the Democrats� anti-Bush anger was by using anti-war anger as a cover. Let me expand on that: whether or not most Dems are genuinely anti-war is neither here nor there. What matters is that they�re genuinely anti-Bush, and an anti-war position is the least insane garb to dress it up in. It would be hard to do all that �Bush is Hitler!!!!� stuff over his �No Child Left Behind� Education Act or his prescription-drug plan for seniors: the Dems would come over as even loopier than they already do. Thus, an anti-war anger is necessary to license their anti-Bush anger. Dean understood that.

"I'll Have What the Gentleman on the Floor is Having"

Mort Kondracke explains Bush hatred:

In the end, Bush's presidency - and America's place in the world - will rise or fall on the basis of whether he has used force wisely or rashly. The jury is still out, but at the moment Americans are on his side.

And that, I think, is what galls Democrats most. Bush has been politically successful. He got his tax cuts through a Democratic Senate. He won a historic victory in the 2002 mid-term elections. He's leading his foremost (and angriest) Democratic rival, Howard Dean, by 20 points in the polls.

Instead of looking in the mirror and trying to figure out what is wrong with them, Democrats vent at Bush. It's a disastrous strategy.

A couple weeks ago, in response to an EJ Dionne column, you read here:

Let me get this straight. Democrats hate Bush because they're mad at Democrats who supported him?

I need a drink.

And if Dionne is somehow correct, make it a double.

I'll take that double now.

Late to the Party

I'm not the only one comparing Howard Dean in '04 to Barry Goldwater in '64. Today, at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Marc Dunkelman makes the case.

The difference? I did it back in July, and used the phrase, "a pony's chance in an industrial turbine."

Advantage: VodkaPundit.

We're Doomed, Let's Go

Stryker on space travel.

Toodle-F*cking-Oo

The bad news for Sopranos fans is, we're only going to get 23 new episodes over the next couple of years -- and then it's over:

HBO plans to telecast the usual 13 episodes this season, debuting March 7. But the sixth season, which [series creator David] Chase insisted will be the last, will have only 10 episodes. And the only reason fans are getting that sixth season is that when Chase tried to think about the "final act of the show," he realized that he wanted to cover too much to accomplish in a fifth season.

The good news? Read:

Steve Buscemi, who has directed episodes of the series, has joined the cast as one such mobster, a cousin of Tony Soprano.

If killing off Ralpie is what made room for Buscemi, then suddenly I don't miss Joe Pantoliano quite so much.

Shop Talk

From Reuters:

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill likened President Bush at Cabinet meetings to "a blind man in a room full of deaf people," according to excerpts on Friday from a CBS interview.

O'Neill, who was fired by Bush in December 2002, also said the president did not ask him a single question during their first one-on-one meeting, which lasted an hour.

"As I recall it was just a monologue," he told CBS' "60 Minutes," which will broadcast the entire interview on Sunday.

One thing you can expect whenever a sitting President is running for reelection is, former insiders writing books damning their former boss.

The election makes for good sales, juicy gossip, and high-profile profile timing to get back at the boss. It's clean, wholesome, election-year fun.

What suprises me here, though, is that O'Neill is the only former Bush staffer publishing a tell-all for 2004. At least he's the only one I've heard of so far. The other surprising item is. . . is that the best O'Neill can do?

Damnit, I want some really good water cooler talk -- but all I get is there's this politician who likes to hear himself talk? Lame.

Required Reading

There's nothing new in today's Krauthammer, but he nicely sums up the many reasons the Three Week war has, indeed, made us safer.

The First Sentence Is Not an Oxymoron

Interesting item from Iowa:

Democrat Richard Gephardt's manager accused Howard Dean's presidential campaign on Thursday of planning to slip non-Iowans into the Jan. 19 caucuses to pose as state residents and support Dean.

Dean campaign manager Joe Trippi denied the allegation and told Gephardt manager Steve Murphy "sleazy tactics like yours are exactly the reason that people have stopped participating in the political process."

In a letter to Trippi and later in a conference call with reporters, Murphy said a Dean field organizer in Iowa told a Gephardt staff member some of the expected 3,500 out-of-state Dean supporters coming to Iowa to help turn out the caucus vote would try to participate.

So is it true? Who knows. We're this close to the caucus, and it's a must-win for Gephardt. So you can read it three ways:

1. Yes, it's true (but if so, then almost certainly without Dean's knowlege).

2. Gephardt is pulling a last-minute dirty trick.

3. Gephardt fears it might true, but is willing to risk going with it because he really really really does need to win in Iowa.

Whichever option you choose, it doesn't make either candidate look good. So it's looking more and more likely that Wes Clark will emerge in New Hamphire (or perhaps as "late" as South Carolina) as the anti-Dean candidate.

And after last night's "hit piece" by NBC, the anti-Dean candidate was just handed a bunch of free ammunition.

Couple weeks ago I wrote, "Not only is this primary race not over, it's hardly even begun."

Yep. And here's where it gets interesting.

Blast Off

After a couple months of speculation, it's unofficially official:

President Bush will announce plans next week to send Americans to Mars and establish a permanent human presence on the moon, senior administration officials said Thursday night.

Bush won't propose sending Americans to Mars anytime soon; rather, he envisions preparing for the mission more than a decade from now, one official said.

In addition to proposing the first trip to the moon since December 1972, the president wants to build a permanent space station there.

To be honest, sending men to Mars is a prestige project. Oh, we'll get lots of benefits from it here on Earth, just like we did with Apollo. But until we go there to stay -- no time soon -- we'll be going mostly for the sake of going (and then getting safely home).

But a permanent lunar colony? That's another, even better story.

And I can't wait to read it.

Required Chortling

I don't know what the weather is like lately in Arizona -- but the writing is sure nice.

Oh, and welcome home, Lileks.

Yet Another Godfather Reference

Mike Kinsley is famous for (among other things), defining a gaffe "is when a politican tells the truth." Today he has a couple new, equally-valid assertions:

One of the tiresome conceits of political debate is that when opponents agree on something, it is more likely to be true. Another is that an assertion is more credible if it comes from someone who used to assert the opposite.

Thanks, Mike -- I needed that. He's speaking of Charles Schumer and Paul Craig Roberts, who recently came out against (more or less) free trade:

The joint byline on the New York Times op-ed page Jan. 6 -- "By Charles Schumer and Paul Craig Roberts" -- certainly was a shocker. Schumer is a liberal Democratic senator from New York; Roberts is one of the wildest of the bug-eyed supply-side conservative economists. Schumer's connections to the financial establishment and Roberts's free-market ranting make their message surprising as well: They have turned against free trade. But two people can be just as wrong as one.

Indeed. But the best is for last:

But the real difference between traditional trade in heavy, earthbound objects and 21st-century trade in weightless electronic blips, or in sheer brainpower, is that the losers in new-style trade are more likely to be people that U.S. senators and fancy economic consultants actually know.

In other words, for Schumer and Roberts, their new position is just personal, nothing business.

Friday Recipe

This one will make the PETA people scream. On the other hand, it's sex on plates. It's -

Veal in Lemon Cream Sauce

You'll need:

1 or 2 veal cutlets per person.
The juice of 2 lemons.
Some grated lemon zest.
2 cups cream.
1/2 cup butter.
1/2 cup flour.
Salt and pepper.

If you couldn't find pre-pounded veal cutlets (AKA scallopini), then put the cutlets between two pieces of wax paper and smack'em flat with a tenderizer. Easier just to go downtown to the little gourmet store for scallopini, however.

Once that's done, dredge the cutlets in half the flour, after first seasoning it with salt and pepper. Throw out any excess.

Melt half the butter in a frying pan on medium-high heat. Drizzle in some olive oil to keep it from burning. When it's ready, fry the veal for 30-45 seconds on each side. Set them on a plate, covered, and stick them in the oven to keep warm.

Whatever you do, don't dump the pan. There are lots of tasty bits in there you'll want for the sauce. Do, however, turn the heat down to low.

In a small pan, put the cream in to simmer.

Put the rest of the butter in the frying pan, and stir in the flour once it's melted. Keep stirring for three or four minutes -- and not one second longer. If it turns brown, the sauce is ruined.

Now stir the simmering cream (a favorite '70s porn flick) into the flour-butter combo, and keep stirring until it's completely smooth. Squeeze in the juice from both lemons, and salt and pepper to taste.

Remove the veal from the oven, and put them on a bed of butter noodles. Pour the sauce over the whole mess, then grate a touch of the lemon zest on top -- just enough to see it.

Veggies? I'd suggest some tasty lima beans, but my bride hates them.

Serve with a bottle of cheap Beaujolais, or a semi-pricey Cote-du-Rhone.

Penetrated?

Terror War, Southern Front:

Colombian and American interrogators have been questioning captured FARC leader Simon Trinidad. The rest of the FARC leadership are running scared, or at least moving in different directions, because of fears that Colombian and American intelligence have penetrated FARC security and are stalking key FARC members. At least that's the news that coming down from FARC controlled mountains. At the same time, many Colombian government officials fear that FARC may retaliate by trying to kidnap more senior Colombian government and business personalities.

There's another item above this one, so click the link.

Reynolds Wrap

A good practical joke is harmless, funny, and takes at least as much effort by the joker to do, as it does the victim to undo it.

This is a good practical joke.

One to Watch

From Drudge:

Against the apparent wishes of senior Bush strategists, [Katherine]Harris has decided in her heart and mind that she will seek the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat, sources close to Harris tell DRUDGE.

"She wants it, wants it badly!" a top source said Thursday. "She'll make her decision public within the next week."

Keep your eye on this one. If Harris decides to run and polls well, it could indicate that Florida is unwinnable for the Democrats. And without Florida, it's tough to put together a scenario where any Democratic nominee can capture the White House.

And if she polls poorly? Well -- that just means she's Katherine Harris.

New Blogs

Today's New-to-Me Blog is EURSOC. Gotta like anyone handing out "awards for outstanding services to Euro-dissidents."

Check it out.

A Fisking

I should know better than to read Maureen Dowd while sober, but I'm on the wagon until I get Melissa knocked up. Well, at least there are pretty mock-lesbians involved - in the fisking, I mean.

Let's begin.

I bet President Bush is more worried about putting on weight, now that his knees hurt too much for him to run, than getting re-elected.

Cute. But shouldn't we desire politicians with desires more important than re-election, even if it's something as simple as their waistlines? But in Mo's mind, there's not enough imagination to grasp anything beyond popularity.

I bet he made a New Year's resolution to give up desserts because he's more scared of facing his "inner fat boy," as one Bush pal calls the earlier, beefier beer-drinking incarnation of W., than Howard Dean.

My mistake. There is something more important to Mo than being popular -- it's staying trim.

After all, the Democrats seem puny wandering around Iowa. And more Americans are pronouncing themselves pleased with Mr. Bush.

We'll leave that last line be, because Maureen scribbled down an actual fact. Oh, she couldn't be troubled with the fancy-schmancy number (61%, if you must know), but still, we must give credit where it's due.

They like him even though Osama and Al Qaeda are still lurking and frothing, even though we couldn't get through the holidays without an orange alert and flights being canceled, and even though Iraq is still a free-fire zone after a war to get rid of weapons that may not have existed.

"Free-fire zone?" Sounds cool, doesn't it? Unfortunately, Ms. Dowd doesn't know what the phrase means. "Free fire" means soldiers, sailors, marines, and airmen can shoot at, fire on or blow up anything that moves. Or even anything that doesn't move. Hell, most of Iraq wasn't under free-fire rules during the three weeks of major combat last spring. But let's not let definitions get in the way of using mean-sounding military jargon.

And the first three quarters of her sentence is nothing more than a whine amounting to, "What do you mean the war isn't over yet? We had a battle and everything."

Oh, and Maureen? The weapons did exist. Saddam used them to gas Kurds, Marsh Arabs, and Iranians. Wake up, sister.

OK -- onward.

A top Iraqi rocket scientist, Modher Sadeq-Saba Tamimi, told The Washington Post that he had hidden his designs for nine-ton missiles from U.N. inspectors, but that the weapons themselves did not exist.

Here we go again. An imminent threat is when the bad guy is pointing a gun at you. After 9/11, Bush told us we can no longer wait for threats to become imminent. Therefore, you go after the bad guy before he picks up and points his gun. Or in this case, before he takes his plans off the shelf and builds his missiles.

Karl Rove has the '04 effort well in hand, despite the distraction of Nosy Parkers from Justice trying to out the official who outed an undercover C.I.A. officer.

Um. . . isn't that what we have Nosy Parkers in Justice for?

For the next two paragraphs, I'll have to go line by line. Why? Well, it took years of devoted, daily news reading, but I have finally read the most politically obtuse series of sentences I'm ever likely to see in a major publication. Join with me now.

The president and vice president have raised $130.8 million, and are showing a brutal willingness to do whatever it takes to secure key bases.

Which bases are those, Mo?

The president courted Hispanics by saying he would try to extend more legal rights to illegal immigrants by offering a new temporary worker status.

Illegal immigrants are not a Republican base. They can't even vote. Or maybe she meant Hispanics. Well, they aren't a Republican base, either -- they vote overwhelming Democratic in most elections. In fact, Bush risks alienating his most conservative supporters over his proposal, as witnessed by the cover of the next issue of The National Review, which calls it "a policy disaster."

Appealing to your base, alienating your base -- whatever, right? Just so long as you get to make Karl Rove sound menacing.

He courted the religious right by saying he would not try to extend more legal rights to gays by offering a new marital status.

Maureen doesn't leave Manhattan much, does she? Outside of the Manhattan-Hollywood-San Francisco Axis, support for gay marriage is not a popular cause. Last poll I saw gave it no better than 40% support nationwide -- and I say this as someone who is solidly in favor of gay marriage. But in Dowd's world, 60% of the American public belongs to the religious right. If that's the case, why do we bother with elections, and why isn't Pat Robertson our Preacher-in-Chief-for-Life already?

Mr. Bush has decided to offer legitimacy only to those dispossessed groups in American society who may be politically useful to him.

And that's something the Democrats have never done. Either that, or it's just the nature of politics � I can never remember.

The president said making illegal immigrants legal would "honor our values," while conservatives went on TV to howl that Mr. Bush was rewarding criminal behavior. The president probably figures that the Republican-led Congress will never pass it anyway, so he can get the credit in states like Florida without having to deal with the results.

How can Bush be angling for votes in Florida by going after the votes of people who can't vote? And if the conservatives are already "howling," how does that help him shore up his base? If anything, it shows Bush is moving to the center on immigration, while appealing to Hispanic (not illegal immigrant!) voters who voted for him the two times he ran for Texas governor.

Mr. Rove presumably thinks that he could actually corral California by going soft on illegal immigrants, even though Arnold Schwarzenegger won there after getting tough on illegal immigrants on the hot-button issue of whether they could have driver's licenses.

Suddenly, Karl Rove the Evil Mastermind is now Karl Rove the Dunce Who Doesn't Understand California. Which is it, Maureen?

While Republican strategists argue about whether to turn some poor gay couple who got married in Vermont into Willie and Willie Horton, or just use the issue in targeted spots in bluenosed red states so the president doesn't seem bigoted, the culture is racing ahead.

While I disagree with Bush on gay marriage, I have yet to see anything indicating Republicans will smear some real-life gay couple as a wedge issue. It might happen, but there's no sign of it yet. Which strategists, Mo? Which gay couple?

But facts don't matter. Smearing gay couples is icky. Republicans are icky. Therefore, Republicans must be plotting to smear some gay couple.

Oh, and Willie Horton was first brought up by Al Gore in 1988, not by a secret cabal of Republican strategists.

Women kissing women, often as a way of turning on men, has become such a staple of entertainment that by the time Madonna and Britney did it on stage, it seemed more stale than shocking.

See how sophisticated we are? A 41-year-old megamillionaire kissing a 20-year-old girl is "stale." (OK, I thought it was hot, but I'm not well in the head.)

The Washington Post reported on Sunday that lesbian love had swept high schools here: "You can see this new trend on Friday nights outside Union Station, sweethearts from high schools around the Washington area, some locking lips. . . . These girls pack Ani DiFranco concerts and know Tatu lyrics by heart. Their attention is usually directed exclusively at each other, but not always: a group of girls at a private school in Northwest Washington charge boys $10 to watch the girls make out in front of them."

I'll pay twenty bucks if Maureen Dowd will kiss Rosie O'Donnell right on the mouth. And I'll double it if I don't have to watch.

Long regarded as the least glamorous of all minority groups, lesbians are now cover girls.

I thought we were talking about how Evil Genius Karl Rove was planning to put Little W and his Inner Fat Boy back in the White House (or was it Iraq's illegal weapons?), and now we're talking lesbian chic?

Fine by me!

Seriously, though � lesbian chic is over. Been there, licked that � as this silly, bigoted story from all the way back in 1996 shows. Which is it, Mo � "stale" or "cover girls?"

Showtime has a vampy new program about lesbians in L.A. called "The L Word." That landed Jennifer Beals and its other sexy female stars seminude on the cover of this week's New York magazine, with the headline "Not Your Mother's Lesbians." (I didn't know my mother had lesbians.)

Forget The New York Times -- I oughta be hitting the all-night newsstand for some all-night reading of New York magazine. Um. . . where were we?

A cross between "Sex and the City" and a Budweiser ad, "The L Word" features women sitting around the table at a restaurant, tartly dishing about dating, grooming and getting pregnant. But with these very unflannel "lezzies," the search for "fresh meat" and "new blood" is confined to one sex, babies come through sperm-in-a-cup, the waxing discussions are even raunchier, and the weary, worldly bon mots are along the lines of "Lesbians think friendship's another word for foreplay."

Well, so did I, back in my single days. The show sounds about as stale as a week-old Maureen Dowd column. And "stale" is my whole complaint about this column. To the Manhattanite, a single cover story in a local magazine about a show on the second-place pay channel means that lesbian chic is somehow hot again.

It's hard to figure, but America seems ready to embrace W. and the L word at the same time. The new L word, that is.

Sorry, Mo � but it looks more like the new Bush is licking the old one.

Required Reading

Tom Friedman. Read:

What you are witnessing is why Sept. 11 amounts to World War III � the third great totalitarian challenge to open societies in the last 100 years. As the longtime Middle East analyst Abdullah Schleiffer once put it to me: World War II was the Nazis, using the engine of Germany to try to impose the reign of the perfect race, the Aryan race. The cold war was the Marxists, using the engine of the Soviet Union to try to impose the reign of the perfect class, the working class. And 9/11 was about religious totalitarians, Islamists, using suicide bombing to try to impose the reign of the perfect faith, political Islam.

O.K., you say, but how can one possibly compare the Soviet Union, which had thousands of nukes, with Al Qaeda? Here's how: As dangerous as the Soviet Union was, it was always deterrable with a wall of containment and with nukes of our own. Because, at the end of the day, the Soviets loved life more than they hated us. Despite our differences, we agreed on certain bedrock rules of civilization.

With the Islamist militant groups, we face people who hate us more than they love life.

. . .

So what to do? There are only three things we can do: (1) Improve our intelligence to deter and capture terrorists before they act. (2) Learn to live with more risk, while maintaining our open society. (3) Most important, find ways to get the societies where these Islamists come from to deter them first. Only they really know their own, and only they can really restrain their extremists.

Read the whole thing, of course -- it's spot-on.

Required Viewing

The good folks at the Free Iran Activist Chat let me know about a Frontline special airing tonight on PBS:

A harrowing report from inside Iran, where FRONTLINE/World reporter Jane Kokan risks her life to secretly film shocking evidence of the torture and murder of students and journalists opposed to the regime. Kokan, in disguise, escapes the constant surveillance of Iranian authorities to interview underground and jailed activists.

Go set the TiVo already.

Bite Me, Austria

What's the EU's response to Germany and France's Pact-busting spending habits? Why, they're picking on Austria:

Austria, which criticized Germany and France last year for surpassing European deficit limits, should cut spending to meet its goal of balancing its own budget in the "medium term," the European Commission said Wednesday.

Currently, Austria's deficit runs 1.3% of GDP -- less than half the 3% limit allowed by the Stability and Growth Pact. Germany, who insisted on the Pact as a condition of giving up the Deutschmark, ran up to 3.8%. France's deficit stood at 4% of GDP last year.

Both countries demanded -- and got -- the Pact suspended, and fines waived, until at least 2005. But only for themselves. So what's Austria's great sin? Read on:

"Sizable" income tax cuts will cause the deficit to widen to 1.5 percent of GDP in 2005, higher than the 0.2 percent that is expected by the commission, the executive arm of the European Union.

And we all know what the EU thinks of tax cuts.

Makes you wonder if the Austrians are enjoying their postmodern Anschluss.

Click

Oh - My - God.

Holidays in Hell

Hoo-boy:

My own view -- it is the view I take most frequently in this column -- is that the eve and full twelve days of Christmas, plus Epiphany, should be public holidays. (Today being the 11th day of Christmas, tomorrow "Twelfth Night" and the eve of the Epiphany.) Also, for that matter, a couple of weeks around Easter, and perhaps thirty of the more prominent saints days, angelic and other feasts, the Pentecost of course, and so prominent a fast as Ash Wednesday. Call me mediaeval (it's been done before), I long for the restoration of some pattern in our lives, some general acknowledgement of liturgical meaning in the times and seasons.

Would this be good for the economy? I shouldn't think so. But then I don't think everything we do should be good for the economy. There are enough days left to take care of that, and besides, our economy is much too efficient. There is a great deal of excess wealth around us, and this would help mop some of it up.

Perhaps the reader will object that not everyone is a Catholic Christian (that's been done before, too), but I can't say this bothers me.

That's David Warren, writing -- thankfully -- -about Canada, not the US.

Sop up the excess wealth! Praise the Saints on government-mandated holiday time! Let not the heathens trouble your conscience! Canada for Catholics! (To be fair, Warren attempted to write a lighthearted piece. But with lines like, "I promise not to force anyone to take a holiday that might make him feel uncomfortable. And to 'persons of no religion' I shall be happy to grant no holidays at all," it's hard to laugh.)

What I can't say bothers me, however, is that this country has a wall of separation between Church and State. It's like a condom for your conscience -- and I bet that bothers Warren quite a bit.

Link via Drudge

I think everyone here by now knows I'm an absolutist on the First Amendment.

But then I see stuff like this, and wonder if Congress can't pass a law restricting people from using the word "Nazi" without first getting a notarized letter of approval from a professor of modern history at an accredited university.

Promises, Promises

From the AP:

Howard Dean's advisers said Wednesday that he will offer a plan to cut middle class taxes, a shift in the Democratic presidential candidate's economic vision that has focused on repealing all of President Bush's tax cuts.

While the timing and size of Dean's promised cut have yet to be revealed, his elegant plan already has a name: The After I Sucker-Punch You I'll See If We Have Any Aspirin Plan.

Or, you can more easily remember it by its equally-elegant acronyn, "TAISPYISIWHAAP."

New Blogs

Today's New-To-Me Blog is Llama Butchers.

Yes, Llama Butchers.

For the Children (Via the School Boards)

More local news with national implications:

Colorado's school-voucher supporters suffered another legal blow Tuesday when a Denver judge upheld a decision that temporarily halted the fledgling system.

The one-sentence decision from District Judge Joseph Meyer puts the program's fate further into limbo, as voucher supporters had hoped to move ahead with the plan while the issue is being taken to the state Supreme Court.

Meyer - in a two-pronged decision last month - placed an injunction on the program, but not before ruling that the voucher law violates the state Constitution because it strips control from school boards.

What a lousy excuse.

Actually, I'm a bit wary of vouchers. Oh, I'm not against anything which would strip power from school boards or teachers' unions, but if I ran a religious school, I'm not sure I'd accept government money. Take the Danegeld, and you'll never be rid of the Dane.

But that doesn't mean I don't think they aren't worth a try -- if only the courts would let them.

The Other S Factor

For a couple decades now, Democrats have been jiggering with their primary system, in order to try to nominate electable candidates. What they've been trying to do is, avoid the twin disasters they suffered in 1984 and in 1988.

In 1988, we got the first Super Tuesday -- which was originally an All-South Soviet (er, event) to give the edge to some moderate southern candidate. Instead it turned out to be a great day for Jesse Jackson, and in the long run, a greater day for a northern liberal named Mike Dukakis.

OK, Super Tuesday was a bust. So Democrats tried speeding up the primary schedule. Instead of stringing out a bunch of votes for half the winter and all of the spring, everything was scheduled to pick a winner sometime in May. They tried it in 2000, and got Al Gore. Oops. Naturally, then, they've accelerated the race even more for 2004 -- look for the winner in March or April.

The Democrats also came up with Superdelegates. They're mostly party insiders, and their job is to act as a brake on the nominating passions of the primary electorate -- shouting "stop" on the train tracks of electoral oblivion.

However, Superdelegates have, since their inception, done little more than bless whoever it was the voters selected.

Now we have this:

Self-styled outsider Howard Dean holds the first lead in the chase for delegates for the Democratic presidential nomination, and he can thank party insiders for the early advantage, according to an Associated Press survey.

The outsider (who paradoxically is also a northern liberal) has already captured the lead in the race for Superdelegates? In theory, their job is to stand behind the most electable candidate. In practice, as I've already said, it's never happened.

There have been five presidential elections since 1984, and in the two that counted, Democrats set themselves up to fail with a northern liberal.

1992 doesn't count, because the Democrats would have nominated a Hungry Man TV dinner, if he looked electable. 1996 also doesn't count, because they had in Bill Clinton an unopposed incumbent. And 2000 doesn't count, because Al Gore was Clinton's hand-picked heir apparent, and Bill Bradley was in no position to stop him.

So for the third time in six tries, the Dems look poised, despite every effort, to nominate yet another northern liberal. Did they ever consider that maybe. . .

. . .It's the electorate, stupid?

iFlop

So much for Steve Jobs's vaunted Reality Distortion Field:

Macheads witnessed a Cube moment the other day at MacWorld San Francisco when Jobs trotted out the miniPod as a highlight of his much anticipated keynote speech. It's an iPod that comes in many bright, funky colors. It has far less capacity than the previous versions, but it costs about the same (only $50 less the previous lowest-price model). And it weighs just three ounces less than the heftier iPods.

SMALLER BUT WIMPIER. Less music in a device marginally smaller at about the same price. Get it? I didn't, and few others will, either. In fact, while I was watching Jobs give his spiel, my mind replayed the infamous scene from the cult classic mockumentary Spinal Tap where the dim rock band tries to explain that dials on their amplifiers go to 11 -- and that's what makes them louder. I was left with the same sense of befuddlement after watching Jobs show off the smaller but much wimpier miniPod.

I'm a PC guy, but I wouldn't mind one of those duel-G5 power Macs. The miniPod, however, is another story.

It seems even Apple's legendary esthetic has failed them on this one. "iMac" is a cool looking name. So is "iPod." But "miniPod" looks like it's printed backwords, and even looks bigger than the name of the product it's supposed to be smaller than.

You going to buy one?

Thick Like Thieves

Standards just ain't what they used to be -- not even for armed robbers.

Feeling Lucky, Punk?

Speaking of unaccountability in Europe. . .

The European Union's head office conceded Wednesday that politics, not just EU law, will be considered when it decides whether to take national governments to court for letting Germany and France off the hook for violating euro rules.

The European Commission, charged with upholding EU law, still has "serious reservations about the legality" of the decision by EU finance ministers on Nov. 25, chief spokesman Reijo Kemppinen told a news conference.

France and Germany, which account for roughly half of the euro-zone's economic output, wielded their combined clout to block the commission's recommendation to censure them for failing to rein in excessive budget deficits.

This, on the same day when a fellow calling himself "The Old European" wrote here:

I bet my guaranteed state pension that the US dollar will depreciate some more against the euro this year.

I'll take that bet, and raise you 10 billion Weimar deutschmarks.

Shoe, Meet Other Foot

Europe's Parmalat scandal is spreading:

As much as ten billion euros could be unaccounted for from the giant Italian food group. Prosecutors in Parma think the company's former chief financial officer Fausto Tonna can unravel some of the mystery.

He has been subjected to hours of questioning this week on the web of offshore companies which investigators suspect was used to cream off cash and provide a smoke screen to divert regulators.

Holland is the latest country to launch an investigation.

Under scrutiny are three Parmalat subsidiarys in Rotterdam which issued most of the seven billion euros worth of bonds that are still outstanding.

Brazil's stock market regulator is also reviewing the earnings statements of the company's subsidiary there looking for irregularities.

Hey, Europe -- remember how we let Enron go bust and filed charges against their CEO? It's called "accountability." Try it some time.

Bite Me, Belgium

Is Tony Blair sure he wants the UK in the eurozone by 2007 -- or any other date? Read:

Under the Growth and Stability Pact, members of the eurozone are not supposed to run up budget deficits of more than 3% of gross domestic product (GDP).

France and Germany, battered by rising unemployment and slowing economic growth, had bust out of those limits arguing that capping spending would hamper a recovery.

The European Commission, the EU's executive arm, warned them that failure to trim spending would result in censure and eventually large fines.

A compromise was found, with Germany agreeing to cut its budget by about 0.6% of GDP next year and 0.5% the year after. France is looking at 0.77% and 0.6% cuts over the same time period.

That, in theory, should get the deficits of both countries back below the mandated 3% of GDP.

But there is a get-out clause, under which the reductions will not be required if growth in the French and German economies is unexpectedly low.

Kids, this stuff is basic Macro Econ 101.

The eurozone nations, in order to maintain the value of their new currency, have to limit their borrowing. In our country, when Washington borrows too much, we get high interest rates and inflation. Then we vote the bastards out, and get a new batch of bastards who promise to bring some sense to government spending.

In the eurozone, things aren't that simple. What's to keep, say, Belgium from swimming in red ink, if the inflationary effect is spread out amongst a host of other nations who all use the same currency? Which is why the eurozone countries adopted a "Growth and Stability Pact" before adopting the euro. Simply put, everyone promised not run deficits bigger than 3% of GDP.

Problem is, it isn't tiny little Belgium breaking the Pact -- it's Germany and France. They're the two largest eurozone economies, and they're also the driving force behind the creation of the euro and the entire European Union. It's not so much that they're screwing Belgium (a Franco-German tradition going back centuries), but that they have the ability and incentive to screw the euro.

That's called the "tragedy of the commons."

So what's it all mean? I suppose it means we'll find out just how sharp the teeth of the EU Commission are -- though I suspect they aren't very.

Bloody Stupid

The story that some British pilots won't fly with armed marshals on board has Andy and his English bride re-thinking their plans to fly British Airways next month:

This is of concern to me as British Airways is the only airline to offer non-stop flights from Denver to London, and the World Wide Wife and Runt* are heading there next month to visit family. So it's not just a matter of them being unwilling to defend their own lives; they're unwilling to have the lives of my wife and child defended. Maybe I should cancel that trip until those pilots sprout some nads.

Plus, the cutest baby picture ever. Check it out.

Dueling Pundits

Jim Ryan forwarded me a link to today's Anne Applebaum column, where she describes the desire to send men to Mars as "naive." I'd read the thing last night in the middle of my little site redesign, and decided I was too busy -- and too disgusted -- to write anything about it.

So instead, read Bill Safire:

. . .The fear factor is largely gone from China's plans for a lunar orbital station, France's commercial satellite launching service and Russia's attempts to stay in the game. Competition in space is keen but not mean. In July, when our spacecraft Cassini (named after an Italian-born astronomer) completes its seven-year journey to Titan, a cloud-shrouded, planet-size moon circling Saturn, the lander called Huygens will be a European product.

The wonderment at this search for life is a corrective to all the death and destruction, candidate clashes and cable catfights on today's media menu.

In "Pilgrim's Progress," John Bunyan wrote in 1684 of the man with the muck rake who "could look no way but downwards" and could not see the celestial crown being offered him from above.

Look up; the cooperative competition in space is inspiring.

Is any further comment necessary?

Required Reading

Michael Barone:

Incumbent presidents may be stuck with themes that elected them four years before but sound irrelevant today and thus are in danger of seeming out of step with the times. Challengers have the advantage of being able to create campaigns that are up to the minute. Which makes it surprising that so few of the Democrats have put together campaigns calibrated to 2004.

Barone then details how four of the six serious Democratic contenders is each failing to wage a campaign for 2004. Then, of course, there's Howard Dean:

At the moment, Dean has run the Democratic campaign most closely adapted to the season. He has won followers not just with his opposition to the Iraq war and his contempt for Bush but with his populist rallying cry, "You have the power!" He is leading in Iowa, New Hampshire, and national polls.

But I won't give away the punchline -- for that, you'll have to read the whole thing.

Where's the Beef? II

Where are Iraq's WMDs? Ask a Russian:

Many countries, particularly Russia, may have had a role in hiding these weapons, because some countries� governments and major businesses participated in Iraq�s illegal activities. It is well-known that Russia had military advisors in Baghdad shortly before the war began. Ion Pacepa, the highest-ranking East Bloc defector, wrote of how the Soviet Union developed �Emergency Exit� plans, in which Russia would assist rogue states to make their illegal programs disappear. The plan called for dumping some weapons in the sea, destroying others, and also waging an intense propaganda campaign against the politicians and countries that claimed the rogue state had banned weapons. Although all technical documentation and research would be preserved, the disappearance of the weapons �would frustrate the West by not giving them anything they could make propaganda with.� Yevgeny Primakov, one of the Russians that told Pacepa about the plan, went to Iraq and advised Saddam Hussein in the months before the war.

For the Russians -- like anybobdy else -- old habits die hard.

Where's the Beef?

Here you go -- the finalist for the 9/11 memorial on the site of the former Twin Towers:

Created by city designer Michael Arad, "Reflecting Absence" took perhaps the simplest and most minimal approach of the eight design finalists, chosen from more than 5,200 submissions. Arad, an Israeli native who works for the New York City housing authority and had previously designed two police precinct houses, would situate his reflecting pools 30 feet below street level, in a large, open plaza. The pools would be fed by water cascading down the walls that enclose them.

If I had to pick one word to describe the design, it would be "underwhelming."

Or maybe "pretty." Or "nice."

For something like 9/11, however, shouldn't we expect something majestic, heartbreaking, or stirring -- or, preferably, all of the above?

Maybe the small picture doesn't capture the sheer size of the old buildling's footprints, now covered in water. Maybe the gray colors of the mock-up sap any life it has. Or maybe Arad is just a government drone who usually designs police buildings.

Whatever, those who were KIA that day deserve better.

UPDATE: Michele -- who I should have gone to first -- has more to add.

Public Service

Steve Dunn teaches us how to make a proper dry martini.

My recipe is even simpler:

1. Put bottle of (A) Absolut (or Bombay Saphire if drinking gin) in the freezer.

2. Put a (B) martini glass in there with it.

3. Wait two hours.

4. Pour (A) into (B).

5. Drink.

6. Repeat steps 4 and 5 until blogging.

I live to serve.

This Is Gonna Hurt

Remember when I said we'd see the "nastiest presidential campaign in living memory" next fall?

I didn't know the half of it.

(Hat tip: Joshua Zader.)

Shop Talk

Good news for Republicans:

A three-judge federal panel Tuesday upheld a new congressional map for Texas that the Republicans pushed through the Legislature after months of turmoil and two walkouts by the Democrats.

The decision followed a December trial on the heated redistricting issue.

Democrats and minority groups claim that the new map is unfair to Hispanic and black voters in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and in South Texas.

But the judges said Democrats failed to prove the plan violates the Constitution or the Voting Rights Act, which protects minority voters. The opinion also noted that the judges ruled simply on the legality of the Republican plan, not its "wisdom."

The reason the court didn't rule on the wisdom of the Republican plan, is because the plan didn't have any.

Texas Republicans are governing as though they think they're the permanent majority party. The Democrats there used to think so, too. Well.

What the Republicans have done is throw away 200-plus years of national precedent: we only redistrict after a census. Should the Democrats take charge, even for a single session, you can bet they'll go for some sweet, sweet payback.

Short term gain: Republicans will get 5-7 new safe seats in Texas.

Long-term loss: This will come back to bite them on the ass.

Damage done: Now every state will be going through nasty redistricting fights, every time the majority changes. Currently, we only have to go through these fights every ten years, and usually only in states which gain or lose seat in Congress. "Now," said the sage, "things will be worse."

Silver lining: A similar scheme was undone here in Colorado late last year.

Native Practices

The Brits aren't the only ones licensing religious activity. Reader Pat forwards this story from Boulder, Colorado:

Boulder police and sheriff's officers halted an Indian sweat lodge ceremony Wednesday night because officials didn't know a healing was scheduled.

Robert Cross, a Lakota spiritual leader who lives in Littleton, said he has held ceremonial sweats in a Boulder Open Space land on Valmont Butte for several years with written permission.

The dome-shaped sweat lodge, a permanent fixture of cross-tied logs, is protected by two fences. Cross said Boulder Open Space gave him keys to the fence locks about two years ago.

"I had the papers saying I have the right to be there, but the deputies said we couldn't be there," he said. "They brought canine units and said we were trespassing."

Look at the bright side. If Cross had tried this in my town of Colorado Springs (home to Focus on the Family), he might have been stoned to death for heresy.

Blame Canada

Yep, it's all their fault:

DNA tests have confirmed that a cow infected with BSE found in the United States last month originally came from Canada, officials on both sides of the border said Tuesday.

U.S. Agriculture Department Chief Veterinarian Ron DeHaven told a media briefing that DNA evidence has shown �a high degree of certainty� that the Washington state dairy cow with mad cow disease originated from a dairy farm in Alberta.

And for the record, the Beef Carpaccio on New Year's was excellent.

Snow Day

As always, click for the full-size pictures.

You Say Milestone, I Say Millstone

Sometime this morning, this site reached 1.5 million unique visitors, and 2.3 million pageviews.

Cool.

We Hope You Enjoyed Your Aborted Flight

Flying back from St. Louis on early Christmas Eve Day morning (how's that for an unwieldy phrase?), a flight of 4 Missouri Air National Guard F-15s took off in rapid succession. Presumably, they were flying CAP above my old hometown for the holidays. None of the flights into Lambert Field were intercepted, but others around the nation were. Read:

F-16s have been seen (by passengers) intercepting many overseas flights after they enter the United States. It turns out this was an additional precaution, to make sure these flights were still following their flight plan (and not diverting for a suicide attack.)

The cancelled and delayed flights are the result of new or improved intelligence sources. In many cases this is either an American agent (not necessarily an American) within an al Qaeda cell, or one of the Arab intel agencies giving us access to their informant network. There has also been improved electronic surveillance of telephone and web communications. During the last two years, there has been an enormous amount of recruiting and training of new agents by the CIA and FBI. These people are providing more tips on terrorist activity. But it's fragmentary information. Things like the possible identity of al Qaeda suicide attackers. If you then get information that several of these guys were last seen headed for London, and then other information comes in about certain flights from Britain being used for a suicide mission, well, you feel compelled to do something, anything. There is also a great fear of being responsible if something bad happens. In other words, a bit of CYA (Cover Your Ass) and new intel we would not have had a year ago have combined to create the strange aviation events of the last week.

Flying has always been a pain in the ass, and it looks like it's just going to get worse. Strangely though, I don't really mind the added inconvenience.

Merry Old England

Scott Burgess writes from London:

According to a report in The Daily Telegraph, an Essex Buddhist bought a small (half-acre) stand of trees so that he and his friends could go there and meditate for half an hour when the urge struck.

Alas, all is not bliss - you see, the guy forgot to get his meditation license.

No, really. His meditation license. Read the whole thing.

Anger Management II

Novelist, author, and former Army intelligence officer Ralph Peters isn't impressed with Howard Dean's national security credentials:

Listen to Dean's rhetoric, especially on security and international issues. He never offers specifics; it's all hocus-pocus. He knows how best to deal with terrorists. We voters from the humble Volk need to take it on trust. He understands how to employ our military more effectively - despite dodging the draft during the Vietnam War.

Dean's going to improve our intelligence system, too. How? If pressed, he may go so far as to mention HUMINT - a term he doesn't understand - or the need for more Arabic speakers. Great, Herr Howie. We agree. But how does he intend to develop our human intelligence capabilities?

Which presidential directives and findings would he rescind or issue? Precisely what would he do that isn't being done?

He has no answers. None.

As for the need for more linguists, how would he recruit them, then train and retain them? Does he intend to reinstate the draft?

Dean never deals in specifics on security issues. Because he doesn't know the specifics. It's all Big Brother Doublespeak.

And that's the nice part.

Rankings

What's the best main battle tank in the world? Hint: The edge always goes to the crews.

Anger Management

Eric Raymond isn't as impressed with John Perry Barlow as InstaPundit is -- and lets him have it with both barrels. Here's a sample:

I am certain � because I've discussed related topics with him � that John Perry Barlow himself knows better. Which makes his willingness to posture about the Man coming to throw us in concentration camps less forgiveable than it would be in someone who's a complete moron on the subject, like (say) Michael Moore.

But what really repels me about the kind of posturing I'm nailing John Perry Barlow for isn't the objective silliness of it, it's the fact that it represents a kind of triumph of paranoid self-absorption as a political style. People in the (mainly left-wing) anti-Bush crowd snort with derision when they hear hard-right propaganda about how the Zionist Occupation Government is going to come after all true American white men with those black helicopters; why do they tolerate rhetoric that is just as narcissistic coming from their own?

To be fair, Barlow did retract his silly statement that

We can't afford to lose this [2004 election], folks. If we do, we'll have to set our watches back 60 years. If they even let us have watches in the camps, that is.

But to be equally fair to Eric, Barlow did make the statement, and it does represent too much of the rhetoric coming from too many Democrats since Bush took office.

More Mo' Money

Last week, we talked about the why the dollar has been so weak against the euro.

Today, let's look at why I think the dollar will appreciate 10% against the euro this year. David Ignatius has the answer:

. . .many analysts (me included) have warned that a further sharp slide is likely this year as China and Japan begin to dump their surplus greenbacks.

Among the leading worriers is the International Monetary Fund, which warned in its latest "World Economic Outlook" in September that a further decline in the U.S. currency is likely and that "a disorderly adjustment -- or overshooting -- remains an important risk."

But let's consider a contrarian answer to our New Year's financial puzzle: Perhaps the Asian nations are pursuing an entirely rational strategy -- one that seeks to maximize domestic employment rather than financial return. If that's so, then financial traders can stop fretting so much and applaud a dollar that's playing much the same stabilizing role it did 50 years ago, during the golden days of Bretton Woods.

China, which has the renminbi pegged to the dollar, has been hording greenbacks in the exact same way a drunken sailor doesn't. Why not sell them for euros, if they're depreciating so badly? Because to do so would further weaken the dollar -- perhaps so much as to "unpeg" it from the Chinese currency.

Then China would lose exports. Then they'd lose jobs. Then the Party bosses might just face the 9mm retirement plan (also known as "Coup Flu").

Same goes to a lesser exetent in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Taiwan. [badmixedmetaphor] They're all stuffing dollars under the mattresses because the skeleton of export-driven, managed economies is hiding in the closet [/badmixedmetaphor].

Or at least that's what Deutsche Bank economist Peter Garber thinks, and I'm inclined to agree. So, if China and Japan keep hording like China and Japan, and if Germany and France keep their economies muddling along like Germany and France, and if the US keeps growing like the US -- then we should see a stronger dollar in 2004.

Are We Clear?

Today's New-To-Me Blog is The California Yankee.

Just to get you started, try out this post on the government's "secret case" and the Supreme Court:

Lucy A. Dalglish, executive director of The Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, expressed the frustration I feel about the government�s position when she said:

"The idea that there is nothing that could be filed publicly is really ridiculous," she said. "It just emphasizes our point that we're living in frightening times. People can be arrested, thrown in jail and have secret court proceedings, and we know absolutely nothing about it."

I know we are in a war. I realize that the evil doers want to make the U.S. the battleground. I cannot understand, nor even imagine, why it is that the government cannot acknowledge that this case exits and at least explain why some information should be secret. Without such an explanation I have no faith in this unprecedented secrecy in a U.S. federal court case.

What is it that the government, and two lower courts hiding?

So what's the case about? Dunno -- it's a secret.

I can think of only two reasons I'd want a case to remain completely secret. Either the alleged crime is of a nature which would cause a panic, or to reveal even the slightest detail about it would harm our national security -- by revealing an intelligence asset, letting al Qaeda know a weakness, etc.

The second reason strikes me as reasonable, but unlikely. A single detail could harm us? I doubt that. Possible, but highly unlikely. More likely is the simple, unavoidable, and completely unnessecary desire by government to stamp "secret" on anything more sensitive than Department of Education toilet paper purchase orders.

The first reason seems more likely, but less reasonable. Let me give you a hypothetical: The FBI busted Mohammed Ackbar Puph N'Stuf with a "suitcase from Allah" in Manhattan last summer. The government then clamped down with a total news blackout, in order to avoid a panic.

For a few days or a week or a month -- fine. But you know what? Tell us you busted the guy with a nuclear-tipped suitcase, and we'd deal with it. We're a grown-up people. We can handle the truth. And better to tell us you stopped it once, so we can better deal with it should it ever happen for real. After all, one of the reasons 9-11 happened was that hardly anyone thought it would ever happen.

Now go check out The California Yankee if you haven't already.

UPDATE: Yankee's 17-year-old son writes pretty damn well, too.

Handicapping Dean (Again)

Last week, writing on primary campaigns, I said, "the guy at the front of the pack is going to find a lot of buckshot in his ass."

Howard Dean, running as the heir apparent, may need a well-trained team of tweezer specialists working under high-wattage halogen bulbs to get the lead out after this story:

When Howard Dean was governor of Vermont, his administration was taken to task in a 1993 state audit that questioned the involvement of a top Dean aide in the awarding of a contract to a health maintenance organization. The aide, the audit noted, once represented the H.M.O. as a lobbyist.

The contract was canceled after the audit was made public.

Four years later, a second audit stumbled across a highly critical review of the same H.M.O., then the state's largest. The review had never been made public, as required under state law.

The 1993 audit, by Edward S. Flanagan, pointed out that a $900,000 contract to administer health claims for the state's 17,000 workers had been awarded to Community Health Plan at a time when Dr. Dean's secretary of administration, the top official in the cabinet, was David Wilson, a lawyer and lobbyist who had counted the H.M.O. among his top clients.

Also, the audit concluded, Mr. Wilson played a substantive role in the awarding of the contract, despite having vowed to recuse himself from any state business involving former clients.

Let's be clear here -- it appears Dean did nothing wrong. If anybody did anything illegal or unethical, it seems it would have been Wilson.

But, as they say, the coverup is always worse than the crime.

Relate this story back to Dean's ten-year lock on his gubernatorial records and his refusal to open them early. . . well, you have a new story which could haunt him for days. Or even weeks. Days and weeks before the January 15 Iowa Caucus, and the January 27 New Hampshire Primary.

Dean's best hope is, maybe no one will care. And when I say "no one," I mean, "no one in the press." In that case, tomorrow he'll make the usual political noises denying any wrongdoing, and the whole thing blows over in a day or two.

But if by Thursday or Friday the story is picking up steam, then Dean might have to release his sealed records.

Possible upside: There's nothing there, and the by the weekend everyone has moved on to something else. Such as, oh, reports that Liv Tyler spent the weekend getting drunk on Citron martinis at some unknown Colorado Springs suburban home.

Possible downside: Years and years of juicy Dean faux pas which everyone is still talking about on Monday morning.

Best bet: The whole thing blows over by Thursday.

Just Do It

Read this post from Blackfive, then go sign the SSG Roy Mitchell's guestbook.

Freudian Slip

Roger Simon explains why Howard Dean slipped up, and said the Book of Job is in the New Testament:

Why? It couldn't be more obvious. Because he is not religious at all and part of him felt compelled to reveal the truth.

There is nothing wrong with not being religious, of course. I'm not and I readily admit it, but Dean, increasingly the hack politician, wants to convince us he's something he's not. I would prefer an honest agnostic (no surprise). Or a Zoroastrian. Or anything. (Well, not a Wahhabi). But not a fraud.

Amen.

By the Numbers

Why I like divided government:

* Overall spending: 2001 (President Clinton's final budget year) $1.864 trillion; 2002 $2.011 trillion; 2003 $2.157 trillion; 2004 (estimate) $2.305 trillion.

* Overall Bush spending increase, 2002 through 2004: $441 billion, or 23.7 percent.

* Last three-year period when overall spending growth was that fast: 1989 through 1991, 24.3 percent.

* Overall Clinton spending increase, 1994 through 2001: $454 billion, or 32.2 percent.

Note that third item. What is it about administrations named Bush, and huge increases in discretionary spending? Bush 41, you could argue, had an excuse -- the Democrats who controlled Congress had him over a barrel. Bush 43 has no excuse, since war and security spending account for less than half the increase.

There's more:

* Overall discretionary spending: 2001 $664 billion; 2002 $735 billion; 2003 $846 billion; 2004 $873 billion.

* Overall discretionary spending increase under Bush, 2002 through 2004: $209 billion, or 10.5 percent annually.

* Overall discretionary spending increase under Clinton, 1994 through 2001: $141 billion, or 3.4 percent annually.

Now, defense spending (which is considered "discretionary," for reasons stupid enough to require at least two double martinis) is up about a third -- which, as I noted before, is less than half the total increase. And you can't blame the so-so economy, either, since unemployment benefits don't fall under the discretionary ledger.

Numbers don't lie: The Republicans are trying to buy electoral dominance. I resent that, and you should, too.

Mo' Money

George Will is fond of his "Protestant Paradox." To paraphrase, Protestant thrift creates a wealthy society, which then forgets all about things like Protestant thrift, thus leading to decline.

It's one of the reasons Will, like most cultural conservatives, often argues we're going to Hell in a handbasket (even though we never seem to get There).

Now there's this, from Virginia Postrel's latest NYT column, on the new Oxford Encyclopedia of Economic History:

Consider cotton, an expensive and relatively unimportant textile until the mid-18th century, when spinning became mechanized. Before that innovation, an Indian hand spinner took 50,000 hours - the equivalent of five years and nine months - to spin 100 pounds of cotton. After the invention of the hand-operated cotton mule spinning machine in the 1760's, that time dropped to 300 hours. With the mule, human fingers no longer had to spin the threads, thread could be spun on many bobbins at the same time, and the strength of the thread improved significantly. After 1825, when the self-acting mule spinner automated the process, spinning 100 pounds of cotton took 135 hours. Cotton became a cheap and common cloth, and cotton production a major industry.

Technology even makes an appearance in the entry on religion, which cites estimates that "attribute 90 percent of income growth in England and the United States after 1780 to technological innovation, not mere capital accumulation." The relative insignificance of savings undercuts Max Weber's famous theory that Protestant thrift was the key to capitalist growth.

Read, as they say, the whole thing.

Lazy Reporting

What's wrong with these two sentences?

Palestinian Prime Minister Ahmed Qureia said Monday he has ceased trying to schedule a summit with his Israeli counterpart aimed at restarting peace talks, amid continuing bloodshed in the 39-month-long conflict.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon prepared to face off against hard-line members of his Likud Party angered by his plan to remove some settlements and unilaterally impose a boundary on the Palestinians if peace efforts do not bear fruit.

The lede sentence makes it sound as if the Palestinians won't talk, because the Israelis are to blame for the West Bank terror campaign. The second sentence belies that implication, as Sharon attempts to remove one of the worst "root causes" of Palestinian anger.

Now, I can't say whether the AP reporter who wrote this story has some sort of pro-Palestinian bias. But I can tell you with complete confidence, that he wrote his lede straight out of some PA press release.

And then he couldn't be bothered to check if his lede matched the facts.

Gratuitous French-Bashing

You'll find the best movie reviews in the blogosphere:

Often, watching a French movie is like looking at Japanese porn. I gape at it, slack-jawed and spellbound, unable to turn away.

If French moviemakers want to make more money, they should follow this simple formula: Less smoking, less Sartre, more stuff blowing up. Luc Besson (The Professional, Le Femme Nikita) has learned the lesson already. The rest of'em should either follow suit or stop complaining about American cultural hegemony.

Required Reading

Will no one rid us of this meddlesome priest?

Shop Talk II

Is Bill Bradley aiming for a cabinet post? I can't see any other explaination to this story:

Former U.S. Sen. Bill Bradley, who lost the Democratic nomination for president to Al Gore in 2000, is expected to endorse front-runner Howard Dean, party officials said Monday.

The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Dean and Bradley planned to announce the endorsement this week.

Bradley isn't exactly friendly with Gore, but did well enough in Iowa in 2000 to perhaps give Dean the extra support he needs there against Gephardt. And that's got to at least be worth one Secretary of Agriculture.

Or maybe I'm just being too cynical -- there is a chance Bradley simply wants to help his party, by avoiding a drawn-out and destructive primary race.

Shop Talk

Larry Sabato (my go-to guy for all things political, since Patrick Ruffini gave up his blog) has his new Crystal Ball working. The first item in this month's edition is the issue of Democratic Vice Presidential candidates. Assuming Dean is the nominee for President, Sabato thinks the most likely veep is. . .

. . .New Mexico governor Bill Richardson.

Followed closely by Indiana Senator Evan Bayh and Iowa Senator Tom Harkin. Sabato uses a unique scoring system to come up with some pretty unique results. My pick, Wesley Clark, comes in near the bottom of 27 potential candidates with nine points.

Now go read the whole thing.

Free Money

It's the latest edition of the Carnival of the Capitalists.

Same Old Same Old

It's a fair cop:

. . .looking back at what Washington's foreign policy community expected from an intervention in Iraq, it's striking how much of the trouble the U.S. mission now faces was accurately and publicly predicted.

On my desk is a pile of more than a dozen studies and pieces of congressional testimony on the likely conditions of postwar Iraq, prepared before the invasion by think tanks of the left, center and right, by task forces of veteran diplomats and area experts, and by freelancing academics.

That's Jackson Diehl in today's Washington Post. It's also old news -- complaints about how President Bush has handled postwar Iraq go all the way back to the toppling of the Saddam statue in Baghdad. And let's face it: the occupation did get off to a bumbling start, and the level of violence was woefully underestimated by Bush, the Pentagon, and the State Department.

But then there's Diehl's solution:

Almost all the studies recommended that the United States try to avoid the political trouble it now has by handing control over Iraq, or at least its political transition, to the United Nations, and by exercising its influence indirectly.

What in the UN's track record makes anyone think it's better qualified to handle building a free Iraq than the US is? Can anyone name a single example?

Also left unsaid by Diehl is that after a rocky start, the rebuilding effort is improving. Perhaps not quickly enough, but still better than anything ever managed by the UN's kleptocracy.