Dohiyi Mir
In Which NTodd Says His Peace
Thursday, January 22, 2004
View From The Bar
I was in the hotel bar last night, and a few folks were sitting at a nearby table. One exclaimed, "Dean sure got his butt kicked in Iowa, didn't he?" I was shocked. Not by the truth of it, but that somebody in Texas (besides Steve Bates) was following the race closely enough to know about Howie.
The people chatting were clearly way more conservative than I am. They also weren't very pleased with the SOTU. Another shock.
My candidate might not win the Democratic nomination, but I still have a glimmer of hope that whoever does win just might beat Bush.
ntodd
PS--Many humble apologies to my faithful readers for the dearth of blogging, cat or otherwise, during my exile in Texas. Class is over mid-afternoon tomorrow, and after several drinks in the hotel bar I might be able to muster some drunken blogging. Elsewise, probably not until Sunday, since I'll probably delayed and/or wiped out during my trip home on Saturday. Thanks for the concern, and for visiting despite the drought.
Wednesday, January 21, 2004
Light At The End Of The Tunnel
No, I don't mean in Iraq. Next couple of days mean lighter prep time for me, and maybe a bit of a breather. Still exhausted, but I'm almost home. I've got a great group of people in class, which has made this week go by pretty quickly.
Dunno if I'll blog tonight. Right now I'm chillin' to Putumayo on the iPod.
In the meantime, check out Angry Dean getting down (via Atrios).
ntodd
Tuesday, January 20, 2004
Iowa Aftermath
So I'm disappointed Dean didn't do better, but really, Clinton didn't win Iowa in '92 (Harkin did), Dukakis didn't in '88 (Gephardt did), Bush didn't in '88 either (Dole did), Reagan didn't in '80 (Bush did), and Carter didn't really in '76 (Uncommitted did!). Iowa is first, and it's a nice feather in your cap, but it really doesn't mean a whole lot.
I've also seen Dean's passionate speech in the aftermath. Friends and family reported to me that it was embarrassing, but quite frankly, I don't see what the big deal was. Yeah, it plays into the media meme of the "angry Dean", but at this point, even if he's sugar and cream nobody will report it that way.
In a way, the pressure's kind of off Howie. No longer the alleged front-runner, maybe he'll get a little breather and Kerry will pick up some more flack.
It's a long contest, Dean's still got a reasonable lead in NH polling (if you believe any polls), and the truth will out.
All that said, I would gladly vote for Kerry if he wins the nom. I'd rather have Dean, or Edwards, or Clark, and I won't forgive Kerry for his dirty pool, but he's infinitely better than Bush. All the same, it's probably time to give a little more cash to Howie...
ntodd
Monday, January 19, 2004
You've Got To Be Freaking Kidding Me: Kerry?!
CNN clearly wants Kerry to win tonight:
And here's what they're reporting on the early results with 20% of precincts reporting:
Kerry 37
Edwards 34
Dean 18
Gephardt 11
And there's the expectations game from ABC:
Democratic presidential candidates vied for victory Monday across the chilly precincts of Iowa, the first step in the battle to face President Bush this fall. John Kerry was leading in preliminary results of an Associated Press survey of Iowa Democrats taken as they entered the caucus sites.
The survey showed John Edwards and Howard Dean battling for second, and Dick Gephardt, the winner of the 1988 caucuses, trailing. Just weeks ago, before the Iowa race turned tumultuous, Dean was the undisputed front-runner and anything less than a victory for him would jolt the crowded field and raise questions about the former Vermont governor's standing.
So if Dean, annointed the front-runner by the SCLM who has savaged him at every turn, doesn't win tonight, apparently he's not "electable". Oy. Well, I can't afford the time and energy to watch the caucus results, so hopefully when I wake up tomorrow all this will be as unreal as the Eagles losing to the Panthers...
ntodd
[Update: even the Iowa Caucus leaderboard is playing the image game. Reader challenge: which of the pictures is not like the others?]
Culture Clash
ATimes:
[Iraqi cleric Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Husseini al-Sistani] believes in the separation of religion and politics; however, the junk-food version of instant experts on Iraq inside the United States and those who are part of the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) were quick to confuse his version of that separation with the Western notion of separation of church and state - which underscores the biblical notion of "render unto Caesar the things which are Caesar's".
...
Even though he has been in Iraq for several months now, Bremer could never fathom the nuances of Sistani's thinking. Viceroys in colonies don't mingle too much with the locals. They only learn the "truth" from the chosen sycophants who tell them what they want to hear. This is so true for Iraq, where the Iraqis have been old practitioners of never speaking the truth to the powerful ones at a given time. To them, the Americans only represent the current fleeting phase of such rulers.
No time for analysis--busy day (and week) ahead.
ntodd
Sunday, January 18, 2004
Clark Is The Next McGovern
Another Dean meme bites the dust:
Democratic presidential hopeful Wesley Clark, whose party loyalty and war opposition have come under new scrutiny, won the endorsement on Sunday of George McGovern, the 1972 Democratic Party nominee known for his antiwar politics.
...
"There are a lot of good Democrats in this race, but Wes Clark is the best Democrat. He is a true progressive. He's the Democrat's Democrat," said McGovern, who lost the 1972 New Hampshire primary to Edmund Muskie but won the nomination.
McGovern, an outspoken critic of the Vietnam War, went on to a landslide defeat against Nixon in the 1972 election.
Hmm...
ntodd
Predictions Redux
One-third of one of my 2004 predictions has come true: the New England Patriots are going to the Super Bowl. Now I just need the Iggles to win later tonight, and a Pats' victory in Houston, and I'll have scored 100%. [Update: Crap.]
ntodd
Predictions
Based on my astute reading of the tea leaves in Iowa:
Dean: 30%
Gephardt: 27%
Kerry: 22%
Edwards: 16%
Other completely random guesses for post-Iowa: Dennis Kucinich will drop out after this first real voting (DC notwithstanding). Lieberman will drop out after NH. Sharpton will stay in the race through SC. Kerry will loan himself more money and stay in through SC as well. Clark and Dean will duke it out until summer.
Other thoughts?
ntodd
PS--Check out the Caucus 2004 website.
[Update: Kos has a different take:
Dean 33
Gephardt 29
Kerry 20
Edwards 14
Turnout: a whopping record-shattering 11 percent.
What the heck, I'll take a stab at turnout: 17 percent (oops, forgot the '1').]
Saturday, January 17, 2004
Bogworld Redux
It's been a long while since I plugged Joseph Pillsbury's Bogworld, so here's another:
ntodd
PS--Yes, Joseph, I'll try to give some coverage to the O'Neill stuff...
ROTK Redux
Okay, so I've had dinner and am winding down a bit. Yes, ROTK was excellent the second time (sorry Bill, I had to see it w/o you, unless you were in Dallas by some off-chance). A number of people have told me if you're really familiar with the book, or just finished (re)reading it, another viewing is essential to truly appreciate the movie. I agree.
That said, I've decided it wasn't the best of the trilogy, contrary to what many critics have said. Yeah, it completes the story arc, it made the battle at Helm's Deep look teeny, yadayadayada, but I liked the films in this order: 1, 3, 2.
I prefer Fellowship for a number of reasons: at a gut level it, or at least the extended version, felt truer to the letter and spirit of the book; much like the first Harry Potter film, it had that electric sense of new discovery, like a first kiss; I loved the imagining of the Shire and Rivendell, which you don't see so much in the other two movies. I'm probably biased since I've seen Fellowship way more frequently than the others, so maybe I'll appreciate them better in time.
ntodd
PS--I hate noisy moviegoers. About a dozen teens in the back of the theater kept talking, laughing, and tromping down to the lobby. Kids today...
Shameless Pandering Redux
Faithful readers might recall that this humble blog was nominated for Best Blog in the 2003 Koufax Awards over at Wampum. DM has also been nominated for Best New Blog, and the voting has begun! You know what to do.
Please pretend I have been blogging more often and with higher quality than I really have lately. Or you might imagine how great my blogging will be when I get out from under my crushing work load. Alternately, I'll be your best friend if you vote for me.
Please note that many other fine blogs, including several from the Liberal Coalition, have been nominated: corrente, ECHIDNE OF THE SNAKES, The Fulcrum, Steve Gilliard, and Trish Wilson.
Open Source Politics itself, along with several of my compatriots from OSP, are also in the running: Tikun Olam, Sadly No, The Right Christians, and Poison Kitchen. Apologies if I missed anybody.
ntodd
The Job Front
CNN:
IBM will hire 15,000 new employees in 2004, with an additional 4,500 jobs in the United States, a top executive said Saturday.
"We are going to hire more in the U.S. than we shift" overseas, said Randy MacDonald, IBM's senior vice president for human resources.
Here's hoping my pessimism last month was truly unfounded and that this is unadulterated good news.
ntodd
McGruder's Take On The Dems
My wife pointed out two Boondocks strips from this week. Thursday's:
Here's hoping it is Dean, but looks like the pips are going to make the race into a nailbiter. I hate drama. And here's today's strip:
Too right about Aquaman and Gep. But we still need a superhero with a lame origin story to be John "Daddy Worked in a Mill" Edwards...
ntodd
Now Playing on iTunes
I'm assembling case study books for tomorrow's kickoff dinner, listening to tunes on my laptop (rather than the iPod). Currently playing Dido's Life for Rent. It came out last year, and as the Rolling Stone review said, it ain't groundbreaking, but it's a good listen.
I really liked her first album, No Angel and bought that on CD after hearing "Hunter" on the radio driving from Sacramento to San Francisco a couple years ago. So I figured I'd take a risk and get her latest as well. I bought the entire album via iTunes, so got 11 tracks for $9.99. I don't think I'm going to buy a lot of albums electronically, but I really wanted something new to listen to this week, and overall I like the concept.
It's still unclear exactly how the iPod is going to influence my music listening and buying habits. We'll see after I've had the thing for a couple months. All I know right now is that the device has been worth it's weight in platinum on this trip.
ntodd
Dilemma
So I have a bunch of work to do, but I also am planning on playing some hookey today. Gotta unwind a bit, and I have plenty of time to do things tomorrow, but my big internal debate: do I go to the 240 showing of LOTR: ROTK? I really want to see it again in the theater and there's nothing else playing that I'm interested in, but can I afford 3 hours and change when I'm so busy getting ready for class next week (not to mention reviving my blog)?
ntodd
Damn It
Another tragic milestone: more than 500 US soldiers killed in Iraq since last March. CNN reports:
Three U.S. soldiers and two members of the Iraqi Civil Defense Corps were killed Saturday morning when a roadside bomb detonated north of Baghdad, a American military spokesman said.
A patrol was sweeping the area for improvised explosive devices when the blast occurred on a road west of Taji, about 19 miles (30 kilometers) north of the Iraqi capital, according to a statement from the 4th Infantry Division.
The explosion split open the gun turret of a Bradley Fighting Vehicle the patrol was traveling in, a 4th Infantry Division spokesman said.
The blast knocked the 26-ton vehicle on its side and started a fire, military sources said. A gunner and commander escaped with injuries, the sources said. The wounded soldiers were taken to a Baghdad hospital, according to the military.
I really want to believe we're turning a corner in Iraq. Somehow, I'm not entirely convinced.
ntodd
Showcase Vote
Just a quick post to say I'm voting for American Amnesia's post Insurgency in Iraq - a simple enough topic...
More blogging to come...
ntodd
Friday, January 16, 2004
Dem Race
Check out DaveOinSF (at Kos) compilation of polling that shows who leads in what state according to polling data. Interesting picture. I can't wait until Iowa's behind us...
ntodd
Now Playing On My iPod
Mad World by Gary Jules:
All around me are familiar faces
Worn out places
Worn out faces
Bright and early for the daily races
Going no where
The daily races are over until Sunday, when I have a welcome dinner with my students and start all over again. Tomorrow I'll get to chill a little, but I have to do some prep work and other miscellaneous things to get ready for class, so no rest for the wicked. Oh, I plan on doing some blogging tonight and this weekend.
But now I'm off for some drinks and dinner to celebrate a great pilot offering of this course. See ya in a while...
ntodd
