A good friend I used to work with is from Iran. Except for her immediate family, the rest are still in Iran. She's very worried about them.
Where are our protestors or our human shields? Iran could sure use them. So could N. Korea. Plenty of human rights issues to demonstrate about in those two countries.
For a year and a half at least I've been reading these stories and comments about how 'the revolution is imminent' in Iran and so on.Not a slightest piece of evidence has been put forward to prove the case.
Yes,the regime is not well liked.Yes,you have a few students out there protesting.(And which country doesn't have those?).That this proves that 'the end is near' for the Mullahs seems delusional,in light of history.(Or even the present - just look at Burma,Zimbabwe.)
I'd like to be proven wrong.I'm not holding my breath.
I agree that student demonstrations do not lead to revolutions (usually) so long as there are safety valves for discontent.
However when the political leaders start becoming disaffected, when the military leadership has to have popular officers executed... that is when I start to think things are approaching the pre-revolutionary state. "End is Nigh" is a bit of exaggeration I admit. It could take quite a while for this to play to its denouement. But the game is afoot.
I'm with Jussi on this one. I certainly hope the mullahs are overthrown, but I'll believe it when I see it. Some of the people warning of imminent revolution in Iran have been saying for years North Korea is about to "implode." These people, IMO, underestimate the effectiveness of violent repression.
No, I did not say the mullahs *will* be overthrown. Only that we are approaching the endgame for a confrontation that will probably be violent. It could as easily end up with another set of unmarked mass graves in the desert. That is one of the possible outcomes, as is overthrow of the mullahs. And even if the mullahs do go down, the end result is not guaranteed to be democracy. The military might decide it is time to create order...
I doubt there is anyone who can really predict the outcome of the next year in Iran.
Also it's not only the internal politics that will affect outcomes. How for example would the USA respond?
Unfortunately, I think there might still be an escape valve if the mullahs really get desperate. They could do the same thing done throughout history: start a war with someone. Most likely would either be more direct suicide bombing of Israel, making it clear that it is Iran doing it, or maybe a little territorial spat with US-controlled Iraq.
I do think that the US is missing an opportunity to help. True, most of the time the more we help, the more we hurt the cause, but there is one thing we can do which I do not think will not backfire against Iranian insurgents.
Have the president of the US, and Congress through real legislation, let it be known that the day that there is a popular uprising in Iran is the day that all trade barriers and tarrifs on Iranian imports completely disappear (and encourage other countries to do the same). The president can then publically hope for the day when Iran rejoins the community of nations, with all the financial benefits that will bring.
I disagree. The military adventure option is completely foreclosed. What choices do they have?
East: Pakistan. Fellow Muslims with a large population, a large professional and well-blooded army... and nukes.
North: Afghanistan. They go to war with American. Not too bright.
North West: Iraq. Guess who's sitting there too?
South West: Persian Gulf as a route to fly their decrepit fighters to attack Israel? Guess who owns the Gulf skies?
So they have two choices. Pakistan or America.
Somehow I don't think so.
Oh, yeah. I forgot. South: The Indian Ocean. I'm sure their fleet would not last long against India or Pakistan... and they certainly don't want to take on the US 5th Fleet.
Dale, For all the good reasons you stated they refrain from conventional war, but start a modern, or post modern war - i.e. terrorism. They are doing this.
" The military might decide it is time to create order..."
It's high time they decided that. I wish they decided that. There is no way to topple the mad mullas except by military coup. Demonstrations alone will not do the trick, though they may act as catalizator for the military coup. As long as the military support the mullas or keep to the camps, giving the revolutionary guards (goons) a free hand - there is no regime change. An interrim military rule is indispensable.
When I first saw Dale's comment I was with Jussi . On second thought however I think there may be something brewing.
If one reads the book "The Crowned Cannibals" from 1978 in is evident that sexual tension was one of the driving forces leading to the revolution that drove out the Shah. Large number of frustrated young men who had no marriage prospects and who saw (or imagined they saw) the Shah and his minions getting all the nookie.
Today one hears some facinating stories about the sexual appetites of the Mullahs and their supporters. The levels of frustration amongst the young men of Iran must be even worse than in the 1970s.
Anger and horniness are a pretty powerful combination.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Revolutions are tricky things, more often than not they fail miserably so Jussi may be right after all.
Jacob: But Ann was suggesting the time-tested option of starting a war to send the young hotheads off to get killed and to take pressure off the regime. Post-modern war, by its very nature, is a hidden, secret thing. It does sweet FA for a dictator with internal discord to be deflected.
Iran has no choice but to focus inward. It has no outward escape valve that is not total suicide for the mullahs. If it were only total suicide for a few million of their young troublemakers they'd do it in an instant.
They certainly aren't as stupid or at least as egotistical as Saddam. They are *not* going to go out and pick a fight with America.
Perhaps they can be persuaded to attack the Saudis in an attempt to "liberate Mecca" from the Wahabis? I don't believe Shi'ites and Wahabis are the best of friends...
I know several Iranian immigrants in this country (USA) who maintain regular contacts with friends and family in Iran. All of them agree that while the situation is unsettled, a revolution is not imminent.