A NEWSWEEK poll shows that only 45 percent of voters say they back the reelection of President George W. Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney
A Tighter Race
A Kerry-Edwards ticket could beat Bush-Cheney, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. And while the Massachusetts senator remains the clear Democratic frontrunner, John Edwards increasingly appeals to voters
WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Brian Braiker
Newsweek
Feb. 21 - And then there were two. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean abandoned his bid for the White House Tuesday after a disappointing third-place showing in Wisconsin. Now, with Super Tuesday looming on March 2, Democratic front-runner John Kerry has widened his lead over nearest primary rival John Edwards to an all-time high, according to the latest NEWSWEEK poll. But fresh off an impressive second-place showing at Wisconsin’s Feb. 17 primary, the first-term North Carolina senator remains very popular among registered Democrats. If the election were held today, a hypothetical Kerry-Edwards ticket outpolls a Bush-Cheney reelection bid. (Democratic candidates Denis Kucinich and Al Sharpton also remain in the primary race, but both receive support from less than 5 percent of registered Democrats.)
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For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, more than half (54 percent) of registered voters named Kerry as their first choice for the party’s nomination. Edwards, still a distant second at 19 percent, has actually doubled his support since the last poll. “Today, the voters in Wisconsin sent a clear message," Edwards told supporters after his second-place showing in Wisconsin. "The message was this: 'Objects in your mirror may be closer than they appear.’” Indeed, Edwards polled better than ever against Bush this week: If the election were held today, the two would be in a dead heat, tied at 46 percent (the Southerner started the year trailing the president by 16 points). For the fourth week running in the NEWSWEEK poll, Kerry has a slight edge over Bush in a hypothetical election—the Massachusetts senator leads the president by 3 points (48 percent to 45 percent) in a survey with a 3 percent margin of error.
While not as likely to be a registered Democrat’s first choice, Edwards maintains a positive image—the freshman senator is regarded favorably by 70 percent of registered Democrats and 52 percent by all voters. Kerry is viewed favorably by 85 percent of registered Democrats and 56 percent of all voters. (Still, just 19 percent of voters view Edwards unfavorably whereas Kerry, at 27 percent, comes across as more polarizing). With “electability” a buzz word this election season, a Kerry-Edwards ticket tests well among voters. Although the Southern senator demurs whenever his name is floated as a vice-presidential candidate, 49 percent of voters would support a Kerry-Edwards ticket compared to the 45 percent who back a Bush-Cheney reelection bid.
For the third consecutive NEWSWEEK poll, Bush’s approval rating hovers below the 50 percent mark and voter negativity about his reelection has reached an all-time high. Just 48 percent of all voters view the president favorably and a full 52 percent say they would not like to see him win another four years (43 percent would—an all-time poll low). With the media asking questions over whether the president knowingly lied about the presence of illicit weapons in Iraq and whether he fulfilled his duties in the National Guard obligations during the Vietnam War, the poll finds that voters—split largely along party lines—have doubts about Bush’s honesty. A full third (34 percent) of all voters do not see Bush as an honest person, while more than half (58 percent) do, including 90 percent of registered Republicans. (Sixty-one percent of registered Democrats and 33 percent of independents view him as dishonest). Another full third (33 percent) of all voters “have serious doubts” that the president fulfilled his military obligations while about half (49 percent) believe he did. Those numbers also break down along party lines.
On the issues, the public is split over the president’s handling over the situation in Iraq (45 percent approve, 47 don’t) and his tax policy (45 percent approve, 44 percent don’t). His numbers have turned negative on his handling of the economy (52 percent disapprove while 41 percent approve), on job creation and foreign competition (55 percent disapprove whereas just 32 percent approve) and on health care (exactly half disapprove, 37 percent approve). Only on the issue of terrorism and domestic security does Bush continue to receive high marks (65 percent approve).
Despite speculation that the current administration hopes to use the gay marriage debate as a wedge issue— and despite all the media attention paid to it this past week—most voters do not consider the issue to be important enough to sway their vote one way or the other. Opponents of gay marriage suffered a setback in San Francisco, Calif., on Friday when a judge refused to block same-sex marriage licenses from being issued. The drama, which is being played out on front pages nationwide, appears not to be one that will galvanize voters of either stripe. Just 23 percent of all voters said gay marriage will play a role in their decision at the polls while more than half (52 percent) say it will not factor too heavily in choosing who gets their vote. Still, the issue is clearly a divisive one: About half of all voters (47 percent) support either gay marriage or civil unions while another half (45 percent) oppose any legal recognition of same-sex couples. But almost half (46 percent) see the question as more of a religious matter, not one for the polls; less than a third (28 percent) see it as a legal issue.
For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,019 adults aged 18 and older Feb. 19 and Feb. 20 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
