Saturday, March 27, 2004
Iran doing a 360….
The U.S. diplomatic pressure on Iran with regards to the nuclear issue continues. In the last two weeks, there has been a lot of up and down and we’re back to the same place.
The story took a turn on March 13th, when Iranians, unhappy about the IAEA statement on Iran went back on their words and commitments to IAEA and banned further visits to Iran until April due to the New Year’s celebrations. This resulted in an outrage by the Western diplomats, claiming Iran’s attempt to hide its facilities during this month.
Iran in return, sent to high ranking delegates to Paris (Nategh-Nouri and Karoubi) to negotiate with the French and guarantee any economic deals that were in the works. Hassan Rouhani, in return left for Tokyo, where he was to meet Prime Minister Koizumi for his scheduled meeting on March 17th. Things didn’t go well economically and politically for the Iranians however. Rouhani was to meet with Koizumi to confirm a $2 Billion dollar investment in the Azadegan field for new oil. On March 16th, Richard Boucher, the White House spokesperson announced that the U.S. will oppose any investment in Iranian oil industry. Tokyo, in return announced that any oil deal with Iran will depend on Iran’s cooperation with IAEA.
Iranian government then did another turn and announced the acceptance of the inspectors to Iran by March 27th. This apparently sat well with the U.S. as well as the Japanese.
U.S. undersecretary of state, John Bolton who went to Tokyo at the same time apparently was satisfied with the Iranians response. The next day, $2 Billion deal for the giant Azadegan field was finalized. The deal is a big win for the Iranian regime as well as for the Japanese. The deal will be coordinated by a consortium of companies, mostly Japanese, but the French oil company Total also appears to have a large share. In addition, Total may be awarded to take helm of its Technical aspects.
The oil field is expected to produce 50,000 b/d within 40 months, increasing to 260,000 b/d in 8 years. In addition, Iran has promised Japan that it will increase its oil export to Japan in case of another Middle East crisis. Japan currently imports 90% of its oil need from the Middle East. Iran is its 3rd largest supplier with the current export of 500,000 b/d.
Iranian regime apparently has won a short term game for its survival. It has secured an oil deal which it was seeking for a number of years. In addition, it got a 10 day break from the IAEA inspectors to shuffle and hide any facilities which were problematic.
Today, LA times announced a report sent to the White House by another country (probably Israel) of Iran’s intention to hide its nuclear facilities, the formation of a high ranking committee in December in charge of concealment as well as over 300 facilities spread out in Iran which are somehow related to Iran’s nuclear establishment.
We’ll have to see what happens until June when the next IAEA meeting is scheduled. There will probably be new revelations regarding the nuclear activity and this game will advance to another phase. It’s too hard to say whether the issue will be transferred to the U.N. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next 2 months…
The story took a turn on March 13th, when Iranians, unhappy about the IAEA statement on Iran went back on their words and commitments to IAEA and banned further visits to Iran until April due to the New Year’s celebrations. This resulted in an outrage by the Western diplomats, claiming Iran’s attempt to hide its facilities during this month.
Iran in return, sent to high ranking delegates to Paris (Nategh-Nouri and Karoubi) to negotiate with the French and guarantee any economic deals that were in the works. Hassan Rouhani, in return left for Tokyo, where he was to meet Prime Minister Koizumi for his scheduled meeting on March 17th. Things didn’t go well economically and politically for the Iranians however. Rouhani was to meet with Koizumi to confirm a $2 Billion dollar investment in the Azadegan field for new oil. On March 16th, Richard Boucher, the White House spokesperson announced that the U.S. will oppose any investment in Iranian oil industry. Tokyo, in return announced that any oil deal with Iran will depend on Iran’s cooperation with IAEA.
Iranian government then did another turn and announced the acceptance of the inspectors to Iran by March 27th. This apparently sat well with the U.S. as well as the Japanese.
U.S. undersecretary of state, John Bolton who went to Tokyo at the same time apparently was satisfied with the Iranians response. The next day, $2 Billion deal for the giant Azadegan field was finalized. The deal is a big win for the Iranian regime as well as for the Japanese. The deal will be coordinated by a consortium of companies, mostly Japanese, but the French oil company Total also appears to have a large share. In addition, Total may be awarded to take helm of its Technical aspects.
The oil field is expected to produce 50,000 b/d within 40 months, increasing to 260,000 b/d in 8 years. In addition, Iran has promised Japan that it will increase its oil export to Japan in case of another Middle East crisis. Japan currently imports 90% of its oil need from the Middle East. Iran is its 3rd largest supplier with the current export of 500,000 b/d.
Iranian regime apparently has won a short term game for its survival. It has secured an oil deal which it was seeking for a number of years. In addition, it got a 10 day break from the IAEA inspectors to shuffle and hide any facilities which were problematic.
Today, LA times announced a report sent to the White House by another country (probably Israel) of Iran’s intention to hide its nuclear facilities, the formation of a high ranking committee in December in charge of concealment as well as over 300 facilities spread out in Iran which are somehow related to Iran’s nuclear establishment.
We’ll have to see what happens until June when the next IAEA meeting is scheduled. There will probably be new revelations regarding the nuclear activity and this game will advance to another phase. It’s too hard to say whether the issue will be transferred to the U.N. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens over the next 2 months…
Friday, March 19, 2004
I had some time to write this evening, but in the atmosphere of Eid, I could not get myself to write about anything regarding politics and the news.
I wish everyone a happy new year.
Enjoy the spring and its flowers. Spend time with family, reflect on the year past and try to make the most of the New Year and the new beginning.
Enjoy,
I wish everyone a happy new year.
Enjoy the spring and its flowers. Spend time with family, reflect on the year past and try to make the most of the New Year and the new beginning.
Enjoy,
Sunday, March 14, 2004
Al Qaeda Still a Threat
The Madrid attacks were a bomb-shock to Europe. The largest terrorist attack on the European soil since the Pan Am flight over Scotland more than 15 years ago.
Initially, the Spanish government tried all it could to blame the Basque separatists (ETA) on this attack and rightly so. These attacks occurred three days before the general elections where the conservative party which joined the U.S. in Iraq is up for re-elections. The conservative party sent troops to Iraq and backed President Bush while more than 90% of the Spanish public was against Spanish involvement. They were well aware that an attack by Al Qaeda could have a very negative impact on their chances for re-election.
In addition, the party had tried to demonize ETA and wage an all-out war on the faction to bring them to their knees. An attack by ETA would have supported their cause and given them a boost for the elections.
Right after the bombing, the Spanish authorities blamed ETA, even after a van with Arabic tapes and bomb detonators were discovered nearby. They planned “anti-ETA” gatherings following the bombings. But the people slowly started realizing the hand of Al Qaeda in the matter and today, in the general elections, the conservative Spanish party was ousted for the socialist party. The newly elected party has announced that it will pull all of the 1300 Spanish troops out of Iraq by July.
This is a big defeat for the American Neo-Conservatives and President Bush. Bush has lost one of three leaders who stood by his side during the Iraq invasion. And this can foreshadow what may be ahead for change in European leadership in Italy and U.K.
Al Qaeda has scored a point by ousting the Spanish conservative leadership through a horrifying attack in its capital and bringing the public to the forefront of the war on terrorism. Today, the Spaniards answered back that they are not interested in following Bush’s footstep in Iraq. This can have far reaching consequences for the U.S. Presidential elections in November.
With this bombing, Al Qaeda has learned that terrorism before elections CAN sway the public vote away from the conservative leadership. If this is correct, then if Al Qaeda is planning another U.S. attack, U.S. should be very weary of an attack in October, when they may try to sway the American public opinion away from Bush.
Initially, the Spanish government tried all it could to blame the Basque separatists (ETA) on this attack and rightly so. These attacks occurred three days before the general elections where the conservative party which joined the U.S. in Iraq is up for re-elections. The conservative party sent troops to Iraq and backed President Bush while more than 90% of the Spanish public was against Spanish involvement. They were well aware that an attack by Al Qaeda could have a very negative impact on their chances for re-election.
In addition, the party had tried to demonize ETA and wage an all-out war on the faction to bring them to their knees. An attack by ETA would have supported their cause and given them a boost for the elections.
Right after the bombing, the Spanish authorities blamed ETA, even after a van with Arabic tapes and bomb detonators were discovered nearby. They planned “anti-ETA” gatherings following the bombings. But the people slowly started realizing the hand of Al Qaeda in the matter and today, in the general elections, the conservative Spanish party was ousted for the socialist party. The newly elected party has announced that it will pull all of the 1300 Spanish troops out of Iraq by July.
This is a big defeat for the American Neo-Conservatives and President Bush. Bush has lost one of three leaders who stood by his side during the Iraq invasion. And this can foreshadow what may be ahead for change in European leadership in Italy and U.K.
Al Qaeda has scored a point by ousting the Spanish conservative leadership through a horrifying attack in its capital and bringing the public to the forefront of the war on terrorism. Today, the Spaniards answered back that they are not interested in following Bush’s footstep in Iraq. This can have far reaching consequences for the U.S. Presidential elections in November.
With this bombing, Al Qaeda has learned that terrorism before elections CAN sway the public vote away from the conservative leadership. If this is correct, then if Al Qaeda is planning another U.S. attack, U.S. should be very weary of an attack in October, when they may try to sway the American public opinion away from Bush.
Thursday, March 11, 2004
It's been a few days since my last entry. My time is consumed studying for my upcoming Radiology boards. I have tried and forced myself to stay away from the computer in order to get as much studying as possible during my high energy hours of the day. In the evenings, with most of the energy consumed, it's hard to sit, do the necessary research and write something worthwhile.
There are several events in the last week which we should keep our eyes on.
1) One is the teachers strike in Iran. This strike is different than ones in the past due to its spontaneous nature and lack of leadership. We should note, that such movements are the strongest movements and the hardest for authorities to clamp down on.
2)In the U.S., Kerry is the Democratic nominee and is leading Bush in the polls.
3)The U.S. trade deficit just recorded its highest ever.
4)Iran has suggested backing down of it's initial and earlier commitment of giving up uranium enrichment, on the day of IAEA meeting.
I will continue the issue I was discussing regarding the conservatives attempt at an economic expansion. I already talked about the role of U.S. and Isreal relationship. The other issues I mentioned need a little more time discussing and I will talk about them later. Those issues mentioed on Feb 28th included investment laws, banking, import/export regulations, and infrastructure investment.
There are several events in the last week which we should keep our eyes on.
1) One is the teachers strike in Iran. This strike is different than ones in the past due to its spontaneous nature and lack of leadership. We should note, that such movements are the strongest movements and the hardest for authorities to clamp down on.
2)In the U.S., Kerry is the Democratic nominee and is leading Bush in the polls.
3)The U.S. trade deficit just recorded its highest ever.
4)Iran has suggested backing down of it's initial and earlier commitment of giving up uranium enrichment, on the day of IAEA meeting.
I will continue the issue I was discussing regarding the conservatives attempt at an economic expansion. I already talked about the role of U.S. and Isreal relationship. The other issues I mentioned need a little more time discussing and I will talk about them later. Those issues mentioed on Feb 28th included investment laws, banking, import/export regulations, and infrastructure investment.
Saturday, March 06, 2004
بلاگ به زبان مادري
چندين سال است كه من هيچ مطلبي را به زبان فارسي ننوشته ام. بسيار دلم ميخواست كه زبان فارسي را با همان تسلطي كه بر زبان انگليسي دارم مينوشتم و بيان ميكردم
گهگاهي سعي خواهم گرد گه متالبي هم به زبان فارسي بنويسم تا روان تر شوم.
گهگاهي سعي خواهم گرد گه متالبي هم به زبان فارسي بنويسم تا روان تر شوم.
Friday, March 05, 2004
Chaos in Iraq...
I have to agree with Leo's statement of chaos in Iraq as beneficial to Iran's conservative's. More and more its clearer to me that the party with the most gains from the Shiite bombings is the Iranian religious establishment which can further enhance it's own power and legitimacy. In addition, the more Sistani is on the defensive, the better it will be for Khamenei.
Remember, Najaf has always been the historical center for Shiism. Qom, has always been on the top during times of chaos in Najaf.
In addition, the more I think about it, the only power who really has the capability of carrying attacks of this magnitude is the Islamic Republic. I don't believe that Al Qaeda, by itself has the capability of carrying out such an attack anymore. In addition, I don't see any use for Al Qaeda of a Sunni-Shiite war. The only other major regional power, U.S. not only is not benefiting from this event, but has had the most to lose (this I'm writing for the conspiracy theorists who think U.S. is behind everything and anything that happens).
Iran's government will push more and more pressure on the U.S. in months leading to U.S. elections in the hopes of American public's electing John Kerry. Remember, with John Kerry, they have a candidate who already has talked about opening up a dialogue with Iran and normalizing relations. With Bush, Iranian conservatives will be on the defensive and will not have much hope of normalizing relations with an administration which has labeled them as a member of the "axis of evil".
Remember, Najaf has always been the historical center for Shiism. Qom, has always been on the top during times of chaos in Najaf.
In addition, the more I think about it, the only power who really has the capability of carrying attacks of this magnitude is the Islamic Republic. I don't believe that Al Qaeda, by itself has the capability of carrying out such an attack anymore. In addition, I don't see any use for Al Qaeda of a Sunni-Shiite war. The only other major regional power, U.S. not only is not benefiting from this event, but has had the most to lose (this I'm writing for the conspiracy theorists who think U.S. is behind everything and anything that happens).
Iran's government will push more and more pressure on the U.S. in months leading to U.S. elections in the hopes of American public's electing John Kerry. Remember, with John Kerry, they have a candidate who already has talked about opening up a dialogue with Iran and normalizing relations. With Bush, Iranian conservatives will be on the defensive and will not have much hope of normalizing relations with an administration which has labeled them as a member of the "axis of evil".
Conservative Dream of An Islamic Japan. Part II
Let’s go back to Haddad-Adel’s repeated statements of conservatives intentions of turning Iran into an Islamic Japan. 2 entries ago, I talked about U.S.-Iran relations and its importance. Today, I want to address the Israeli issue and whether the conservatives can make any accomplishments.
In my view, there are two elements to this issue. One is Iran’s history of support for terrorism in the region. The second is Iran’s religious establishment’s inherent anti-Semitism.
Regarding the first issue, I believe conservatives can deal with. They’ve always backed down when forced with backs against the wall. This time around, to appease U.S., I have a feeling; they will again compromise and cease support.
Iran’s support for Palestinian cause dates back to early days of revolution. Shah had established Iran as one of the strongest allies of Israel. In the anti-Shah climate of the late 70’s, most of Shah’s policies were under attack by the population. In addition, there was a trend to go against the establishment in any way possible. Naturally, in the atmosphere of Anti-monarchy, Anti-American, their ally, Israel was also seen as the enemy. And in return, many in Iran, who saw themselves as victims of American foreign policy, associated their cause and the Palestinian cause.
At the same time, in the 70’s, many of the young Islamic revolutionaries were actively receiving military and terrorism training in Yasser Arafat’s camps in Lebanon. Most notably Ali Akhbar Mohtashamipour, who later helped establish the Lebanese Hezbollah in the 80’s. With the onset of revolution, the Iranian Islamist tried to place Khomeini, not just as an Iranian leader, but a world Islamic leader. Naturally, Palestinian issue became a rallying point over which the Iranian leadership tried to establish itself as the voice for the Muslims.
Iran-Israel relations reached a low point in 1995-1996, where at the height of the peace process, with Iran’s guidance and monetary support, Palestinian terrorist groups went on carnage of suicide bus bombings which led to the strongest American trade sanctions on Iran, otherwise known as the ILSA-1996.
Can the Conservative’s reverse this?
The conservative’s led by Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khamenei have one agenda on their mind: Their survival and continued dominance in Iran. If push comes to shove, they will back down from the Palestinian cause and their support for terrorist organizations in that region. Iranian conservatives have no deep remorse for the Palestinian cause, they used the Palestinians in the last 25 years to stay in power, and they will let go in order to maintain power.
I am sure; this will make both the Bush administration as well as next year’s administration satisfied. But there is more. In the conditions for Iranian economic blooming, I mentioned not only Israel, but also mending of relations with the American and European Jewish leadership. This, I don’t believe the Mullahs are capable of doing. They have deeply rooted anti-Semitism in their religious culture, which I don’t believe they can easily overcome.
Four weeks ago, Morocco invited 60 of the top American Jewish leaders to its country as guests to solicit their help in stimulating its economy as well as investments. Today, both U.S. and Morocco announced: "comprehensive and ground-breaking free trade agreement designed to strip away barriers and facilitate trade and investment between both countries.” Now this is what Iran needs to have, in order to have a growth like that of China or South Korea. The Mullah’s can promise efforts against terrorism for short term gains or survival, but in the long run, they will not have the diplomatic skills or initiative to come away with agreements which they can really use. And in time, with their back against the wall, they will again reach for methods of survival which they are now masters at: Terrorism.
In my view, there are two elements to this issue. One is Iran’s history of support for terrorism in the region. The second is Iran’s religious establishment’s inherent anti-Semitism.
Regarding the first issue, I believe conservatives can deal with. They’ve always backed down when forced with backs against the wall. This time around, to appease U.S., I have a feeling; they will again compromise and cease support.
Iran’s support for Palestinian cause dates back to early days of revolution. Shah had established Iran as one of the strongest allies of Israel. In the anti-Shah climate of the late 70’s, most of Shah’s policies were under attack by the population. In addition, there was a trend to go against the establishment in any way possible. Naturally, in the atmosphere of Anti-monarchy, Anti-American, their ally, Israel was also seen as the enemy. And in return, many in Iran, who saw themselves as victims of American foreign policy, associated their cause and the Palestinian cause.
At the same time, in the 70’s, many of the young Islamic revolutionaries were actively receiving military and terrorism training in Yasser Arafat’s camps in Lebanon. Most notably Ali Akhbar Mohtashamipour, who later helped establish the Lebanese Hezbollah in the 80’s. With the onset of revolution, the Iranian Islamist tried to place Khomeini, not just as an Iranian leader, but a world Islamic leader. Naturally, Palestinian issue became a rallying point over which the Iranian leadership tried to establish itself as the voice for the Muslims.
Iran-Israel relations reached a low point in 1995-1996, where at the height of the peace process, with Iran’s guidance and monetary support, Palestinian terrorist groups went on carnage of suicide bus bombings which led to the strongest American trade sanctions on Iran, otherwise known as the ILSA-1996.
Can the Conservative’s reverse this?
The conservative’s led by Hashemi Rafsanjani and Khamenei have one agenda on their mind: Their survival and continued dominance in Iran. If push comes to shove, they will back down from the Palestinian cause and their support for terrorist organizations in that region. Iranian conservatives have no deep remorse for the Palestinian cause, they used the Palestinians in the last 25 years to stay in power, and they will let go in order to maintain power.
I am sure; this will make both the Bush administration as well as next year’s administration satisfied. But there is more. In the conditions for Iranian economic blooming, I mentioned not only Israel, but also mending of relations with the American and European Jewish leadership. This, I don’t believe the Mullahs are capable of doing. They have deeply rooted anti-Semitism in their religious culture, which I don’t believe they can easily overcome.
Four weeks ago, Morocco invited 60 of the top American Jewish leaders to its country as guests to solicit their help in stimulating its economy as well as investments. Today, both U.S. and Morocco announced: "comprehensive and ground-breaking free trade agreement designed to strip away barriers and facilitate trade and investment between both countries.” Now this is what Iran needs to have, in order to have a growth like that of China or South Korea. The Mullah’s can promise efforts against terrorism for short term gains or survival, but in the long run, they will not have the diplomatic skills or initiative to come away with agreements which they can really use. And in time, with their back against the wall, they will again reach for methods of survival which they are now masters at: Terrorism.