March 31, 2004
Non Nano News
One of the "Drexlerian fantasies" that we who dwell in our parent's basements hold dear is the "nanofactory." The nanofactory is imagined as an appliance, maybe as small as a Mr. Coffee, maybe as big as a refrigerator, that manufactures whatever is desired from individual molecules up. This has been called the ultimate technology. With the development of the nanofactory the only cost of material possessions would be the energy it takes to manufacture them and the information to build it (the cost of raw matter would be negligible). Presumably you would shop online, buy a design, download it, and then have your home factory make it for you. The energy cost would be reflected on your electric bill. There are new developments constantly in the nanotech industry (here's a good source for staying current). But even we optimists understand that we are presently a long way from developing self-replicating nanoassemblers – the basic component of a nanofactory. Personally I see no reason why automatic home factories need wait for the development of exotic nanotech.Continue reading "Non Nano News"
March 30, 2004
It's Life Jim
...but not as we know it. Biology is about to begin an important new era. All known life is descended from a single instance of genesis that occurred about 3.5 billion years ago. This is about to change.Continue reading "It's Life Jim"
Ramona 2.0
Phil recently interviewed Ray Kurzweil's chatbot, Ramona. Phil guided her, the best he could, through his "seven questions." The result was fascinating and funny. But I think it's fair to say that Phil never forgot he was talking to a machine. Ramona seems to confuse pronouns. Not being able to distinguish between "I" and "you" in conversation can be a big problem. Ramona "likes" to direct the conversation in certain predictable ways. She wants to know your name, she wants to talk about a book she's read, a dream she's had, and her pet frog. And each time you return to Ramona it's like she's been rebooted, she cannot remember prior conversations. Ramona is not yet ready for Turing. In defense of Ramona, she is at least on par with other chatbots out there. Present day chatbots are an interesting diversion, but they are not yet sophisticated enough to maintain a long-term relationship. What Ramona and other chatbots like her need is greater computation, greater ability to learn and grow, and a justification for these resources - a job to do.Continue reading "Ramona 2.0"
March 29, 2004
Modzelewski Employment Watch Day 48
Glenn Reynolds discusses how the Nano Business Alliance has shot itself in the foot with its backlash-avoidance strategy:
Nonetheless, because of its worries about science-fiction-based fears where mature nanotechnology is concerned, the nanotechnology industry has mostly succeeded in exaggerating concern about shorter-term fears. Afraid that nanotechnology might be associated with lethal (and implausible) sci-fi robots in the public mind, it has produced a situation in which nanotechnology may come to be associated with lethal (and more plausible) toxic buckyballs instead. Call me crazy, but that seems worse. This ham-handed approach to public relations has the potential to do real harm to the industry, and in the process to a technology that the world desperately needs.
If they're smart, the Nano Business Alliance will capitalize on this opportunity to clean up their image. If they decide to let Modzelewski go, they can point to his misrepresentation of the technology — rather than or in addition to his "unique" personal style — as the primary reason for needing to make a change. Of course, he "misrepresented" the technology by presenting it exactly the way they wanted him to, but now that the image of the technology they asked him to create has an image problem of its own, somebody is going to need to take the fall.
A tough break, but that's life in the world of big business. Or rather, very small business.
Previous entries in this series here and here and here and here.
March 27, 2004
About Stillness
Stillness is a novel, a work of speculative fiction. It attempts to be many things: a thriller, a love story, a metaphysical meditation, a farce, all set against the backdrop of what I believe is an original way of ending the world.We'll see.
If it's been done before, I'm sure some of you will let me know.
I started publishing Stillness the same week I launched The Speculist. I'm publishing the novel in serial form, running a new chapter every week. So far I've received some very encouraging feedback. Thank you to those who have sent e-mails or written comments, especially Virginia Warren, who has been helping me out with a few typographical irregularities and Alex Alemi, who lets me know when a chapter hasn't been published on time.
My original plan was to publish 75% of the novel over the next few months. Then I would revise what I had published here and go out and land a lucrative contract for the entire book. I would leverage myself into old media (book publishing) via new media (the blog). But I've been thinking about it, and that idea stinks.
No, not because I have a problem "managing expectations." What does that term mean, anyway?
It stinks because it's only right that I share the entire novel with you, good readers. Many of you have been following fathfully along, and I think even more of you would give the book a try if you knew you were getting the whole thing. So it's decided. I'm publishing the whole novel online.
I was afraid before that I might cut into the book's commercial viability by publishing it here. But I see now that that's a mistake. If people enjoy reading the book online, the published version can serve as a "director's cut" that extends the story.
Plus, who knows? Maybe there will be sequels.
UPDATE: Rather than running a new one of these entries every week, I've decided to start using this one over and over. So feel free to comment, if you wish.
Continue reading "About Stillness"
ITF #130
In the Future...
...it will be standard procedure to attach a label to all missiles saying "if found, please return to [owner's address]", thereby avoiding much embarassment.
Futurist: M104 member Robert Hinkley.
March 26, 2004
Brian Alexander's "Rapture"
Brian Alexander has written a fascinating book entited Rapture: How Biotech Became the New Religion. The book is a tour of the history of the science, the speculation (starting with H.G. Wells), the "true believers," the opponents, and the public policy that are forming the future. The book is almost a multi-biography. The lives of important figures in this fight are sketched in detail. Figures like William Haseltine, Michael West, John Sperling (the portion of the book covering Sperling was reworked into this Wired article), and yes, Dr. Leon Kass. Alexander covers in detail how the backwater field of biology became the sexiest place in science. He also points out the places that have bogged the process down politically. He argues, for example, that the field of reproductive cloning has yielded little scientific fruit but has ended up costing us in the area of stem cell research. In fact, the political price for Dolly's birth has been the rise of Dr. Kass and the bioluddites. On page 225 Alexander sums up the theme of his book within this paragraph:"Despite all the bad news coming out of biotech, the belief in a paradisaical transubstantiated future is as strong as ever among those who have always believed and it has spread, thanks to the power of the biotech idea. The faith has been made enduring by almost a century of speculation. In the twenty-five years since the dawn of biotech, the speculation has turned into public relations, the clay of raw science shaped into companies. Venture capital has breathed life into the companies and biotech has enlisted everyone by going public and proselytizing the coming miracles. Never before in human history have people been so sure that science - not magic, not God - was about to mine the secrets of nature and turn them over to human beings. This is new. It's a religion in its own right and it is making converts."Whether what we futurists are practicing is a new religion or not is debatable. Personally, I am not ready to toss out God just yet. While some within the movement would probably have no problem with the comparison, I would argue that what is developing is areligious. It's not anti-religion or pro-religion, it is something apart from religion. Religious faith requires belief in things not seen. This new biotech faith requires extrapolation from things that are seen and known. In short, it requires a willingness to speculate. A willingness to consider things that may or may not come to pass. Consideration and debate should take place now, even though it may seem a little hokey, because there may not be time for the debates later. The developments will be coming too fast then.
Humans Are From Mars, Computers Are From Venus
Stephen recently provided an excellent run-down on an important issue: the effect that radical life extension will have on the institution of marriage. The romantic in me says that hanging in for centuries at a time is going to make the quest for one's true soulmate a lot more important. In the process of experiencing multiple sequential domiciles, careers, and entire lifetimes, I think people may be more inclined than they are now to look for continuity in relationships to add meaning to the experience. Marriage could become a sort of philosophical partnership in which two people create a core of stability around which everything else can and will change. In the end, marriage may serve as a lynchpin in helping the individual to retain his or her own identity. If you start to lose yourself along the way, you'll have somebody to help you remember who you are.
Continue reading "Humans Are From Mars, Computers Are From Venus"
Kass: Too Weird to Trust
We, on the other hand, with our dissection of cadavers, organ transplantation, cosmetic surgery, body shops, laboratory fertilization, surrogate wombs, gender-change surgery, "wanted" children, "rights over our bodies," sexual liberation, and other practices and beliefs that insist on our independence and autonomy, live more and more wholly for the here and now, subjugating everything we can to the exercise of our wills, with little respect for the nature and meaning of bodily life. --Leon R. Kass, Toward a More Natural Science via The American ProspectHe has a problem with the dissection of cadavers? Did Dr. Kass go to medical school before the Renaissance? The fact that Dr. Kass actually holds a position on the eating of ice cream in public (never mind that it's a negative position) is bizarre enough to be humorous. But his personal convictions about accepted medical practices are dangerous because he is in a position of power.
ITF #129
In the Future...
...an explosion of cheap television bandwidth will allow a dedicated Penguin Channel to air penguin-cam footage to an eager public.
Futurist: M104 member Robert Hinkley, who blames his recent hiatus on a possible disturbance in the space-time continuum. There's a lot of that going around, it seems.
March 25, 2004
'Till Never Do Us Part
So what is Leon Kass so afraid of? If he sees himself as a defender of the status quo, he has much to fear from life extension. If life extension becomes a reality it will change everything. Our entire civilization and all of our institutions and laws have been established with the presumption of a limited life span. Schools, work, retirement, and having children all have in the background this idea of a limited time passing. What exactly will happen to these institutions if the ultimate deadline were postponed indefinitely? Even if the best that could be accomplished is a 150-year average life span, how would society have to change? Reason at "fightaging.org" discussed how life extension would affect retirement here and here. How would marriage be affected? If life extension becomes a reality we may find out just how long two people can put up with one another.Continue reading "'Till Never Do Us Part"
March 24, 2004
New Cancer Treatment
A cancer treatment that is more effective and less invasive than chemo may be on its way. Researchers have developed a method to fine-tune dendrimers to seek out and destroy cancer cells.
Researchers at the University of Michigan's Center for Biologic Nanotechnology hope to prevent that problem by developing "smart" drug delivery devices that will knock out cancer cells with lethal doses, leaving normal cells unharmed, and even reporting back on their success.
The U-M group is using lab-made molecules called dendrimers, also known as nanoparticles, as the backbones of their delivery system. Dendrimers are tiny spheres whose width is ten thousand times smaller than the thickness of a human hair, explains physics doctoral student Almut Mecke. "These spheres have all sorts of loose ends where you can attach things---for example, a targeting agent that can recognize a cancer cell and distinguish it from a healthy cell. You can also attach the drug that actually kills the cancer cells. If you have both of these functions on the same molecule, then you have a smart drug that knows which cells to attack."
Previously, dendrimers had shown a nasty and indiscriminate tendency to poke holes in cell membranes with their sharp edges, making them as big a threat to healthy cells as they were to cancerous ones. Researchers have found that this tendency is due to the electrical charge that the nanoparticles carried. With the charge removed, dendrimers can be introduced into healthy tissue and cause no damage. Moreover, they can be fine-tuned to seek out only the cancer cells and destructively bind with them.
Early experiments with mice have had positive results. Stay tuned.
via KurzweilAI
Stillness, Chapter 31
Part IV
Chapter Thirty-One
(Read earlier chapters.)
The three women blinked and rubbed their eyes to adjust to the change in light. They had apparently been sitting in darkness for some time.
Ksenia looked different. Thinner. More worn, somehow. Her hair was cropped short. Reuben wondered what she had gone through in being brought here.
“Here are three women you’ve never seen before. You now know that the correct answer is one or two, so this is very simple. Which woman or women will you choose?”
Reuben would not allow himself to show any recognition of Ksenia. Of course, Markku knew who she was. According to Sergei, Kolkhi would have reported everything to him. And, besides, it was just too big a coincidence. Markku didn’t need to go all the way to Moscow to find women to use in his games.
But he had said that Reuben didn’t know her, and Reuben’s instincts told him to play along.
Continue reading "Stillness, Chapter 31"
March 23, 2004
"Salty, Rippling"
My abs? Nope. This is NASA's description of an ancient body of water identified on Mars:
NASA's Mars rover Opportunity is resting on what was once a salty, rippling body of water, project scientists announced today, saying the lander had explored and photographed rock layers that could only have been created by flowing liquid.
Read the whole thing.
March 22, 2004
The Word You're Looking For...
Glenn Reynolds comments on the disdain Leon Kass has for the barbaric practice of eating ice cream in public, an activity that Miss Manners Herself has no objection to.
It's been said that a Puritan is a person who lies awake in bed at night worrying that someone, somewhere, might be having a good time. Note the interesting coincidence of puritanism and luddism. Time was somebody like this would have been called a killjoy or a wet blanket. Virginia Postrel named her important book on dynamism after these characters: Enemies of the Future.
I have a title that I would like to propose for Leon Kass, his cronies, and anyone who would discourage public ice cream consumption. The word you're looking for, Professor Reynolds, is buzzkill.
Crime-Fighting Gadgets
From the moment I first heard about them, camera phones struck me as the most useless idea, ever.
Hey, it's a phone! With a camera! Just like you always wanted!
Even the people doing ads for them have seemed stumped. The following have all been proposed (in ads) as legitimate uses for these things:
- Send your friends a picture of a pig drinking a beer.
- Snap a picture of a sloppy guy eating and send it to a female friend kidding her that this is her "new boyfriend."
- Snap a picture of a friend who has taken an embarrassing job wearing a bird suit and send it to all his friends specifically for the purpose of humiliating him.
Fun, fun, fun.
Of course, if non-stop hilarity isn't really your thing, you might be interested to learn that camera phones have also shown some utility in warding off crime. The Associated Press reports that camera phones have been instrumental in catching various sex offenders and, in at least one instance, preventing a child abduction. Moreover, a camera phone was used to exonerate some guys who were falsely accused of rape.
Okay, it's no beer-drinking pig, but it's a start.
We may be heading for the day when camera phones will be second only to a handguns for providing personal protection.
Meanwhile, if you're concerned about your child's online safety, you might be interested to read about these AI chat nannies, which are proving invaluable in rounding up chatroom-lurking perverts. Unlike camera phones, I've always believed that chatbots were useful. But I never thought of them as crime-fighters.
Both stories via GeekPress
UPDATE: Hat tip to reader Jesse who points us to this piece by Michael Williams raising serious doubts about the authenticity of the chat nanny story. If something sounds too good to be true...
March 21, 2004
Interview With The Ambassador, Part 2
Transcript of MOSH Radio 102.9 interview with Ambassador Bell. Continued from Part 1 NEW YORK Ambassador Bell: I have always been what marketers would call an "early adopter." Whether it was computers, cell phones, the Internet, life extension, or augmentation I was always one of the first in line. This was called the "bleeding edge." And with early adopters of augmentation, it was a literal description. But each of these steps along the way prepared me individually and society as a whole for the Singularity.Continue reading "Interview With The Ambassador, Part 2"
March 19, 2004
Speculist Cinema
Phil has said that a "speculist" is:Anyone who defines, looks for, attempts to unravel, or otherwise contends with what might be, what might not be, what might have been, whatever — and then who takes that understanding and tries to make it into something useful.One of the ways to "look for" new concepts to "contend with" is to read about them. A good book is like a lengthy conversation with a very intelligent person about the things that excite them the most. If the author has some wild tangents he wants to pursue, a book offers him the time and space to develop those ideas. I'm presently reading Brian Alexander's Rapture: How Biotech Became the New Religion and Carl Zimmer's Evolution: The Triumph of an Idea. I highly recommend both books. And here are some more reading suggestions from Phil. A movie doesn't provide the same opportunity to explore ideas as deeply. And Hollywood could do a better job offering movies that have thought provoking themes. Sometimes the movie industry acts as if making the public think will keep it away. In any event, I'm grateful when movies that challenge the mind successfully navigate the studio filtering system. Here are some examples: The first three films listed are near-perfect works of art. A.I. and Bicentennial Man are flawed, but are ambitious enough to be worth your time. I also have high hopes for this summer's I, Robot. Does anybody have any other movies they would suggest?
Big Thinkers
Richard Feynman
Arthur C. Clarke
K. Eric Drexler
Richard Dawkins
Phil Bowermaster
Wha'? Howzzat? In the immortal words of Mango: "What the frick?"
How did he get on the list?
Simple. I made nice with the Boss's daughter.
March 17, 2004
Interview With The Ambassador
Transcript of MOSH Radio 102.9 interview with Ambassador Bell. NEW YORK Ron Jones: It is our privilege to have with us today the honorable Justin Bell. Dr. Bell is the augmented community's official ambassador to natural humans. Ambassador Bell, it is a pleasure to have you with us today. Ambassador Bell: It is an honor to be here. Ron Jones: Augmented beings have been a reality for fifteen years. During that time demographics have shifted dramatically. During the first year the number of augmented beings was less than 100. Today they represent over half the human population. Ambassador Bell: Yes. Ron Jones: Will there continue to be a place for good old-fashioned humans in this world?Continue reading "Interview With The Ambassador"
March 16, 2004
The Technology Solution
The world changes, and all that once was strong now proves unsure. How shall any tower withstand such numbers and such reckless hate?
J. R. R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
I quote these words from The Lord of the Rings in reference to the horrifying terrorist attacks that occurred last week in Spain, although they could be applied equally well to any number of atrocities that have been perpetrated by Al Qaeda and their ilk. The movie version of Theoden’s rhetorical question may be even more to the point: “What can men do against such reckless hate?” What, indeed? Stephen Green, starting with the (increasingly likely) assumption that it was Al Qaeda who carried out the Madrid bombings, has proposed an answer — kick ass and take names, and never mind about the taking names.
Continue reading "The Technology Solution"
Blogosphere Roundup
The Corpus Callosum did a very thorough search of the blogosphere using Bloglines for opinions on the Bioethics Council firings:- http://radio.weblogs.com
- http://tatler.typepad.com
- http://www.reason.com
- http://balkin.blogspot.com
- http://www.speculist.com
- http://www.ruminatethis.com
- http://cyborgdemocracy.net
- http://www.longevitymeme.org
- http://www.chriscmooney.com
- http://www.corante.com
- http://www.calpundit.com
- http://blog.mmadsen.org
- http://www.beaconschool.org
- http://www.worldmagblog.com
- http://bobwhitson.typepad.com
- http://www.pro-war.com
- http://18minutegap.com
A search of blogs, using Bloglines, indicates that the vast majority of bloggers who have commented on the subject...are troubled by the dismissal of Dr. Blackburn and Dr. May from the Bioethics Council.That'll do.
Coming True Already?
One of my speculations yesterday was that "scientists perfect methods of obtaining stem cells from adult humans without having to create and destroy an embryo." Kurzweil points today to this article entitled, "Cells Induced to “De-Differentiate” Back into Stem Cells."For the first time, researchers have induced differentiating cells to revert to being stem cells. Although such de-differentiation is known to occur in natural systems, scientists had never before mimicked the process in the laboratory. The researchers said their achievement with the fruit fly Drosophila suggests that de-differentiation should be explored as yet another route to generating stem cells for therapeutic purposes.You'll want to read the whole thing.
March 15, 2004
The Next Ten Years: Some Speculations
Since the name of this blog is "The Speculist," perhaps I should offer some speculations from time to time. Feel free to comment on why you agree or disagree with any of this. In the next ten years:- Carbon nanotubes become available in commercial quantities. They are placed in homes, cars, cables for bridges, skyscrapers. They are woven into fabric to make them bullet resistant.
- NASA begins to plan seriously for a space elevator. An equatorial island is quietly acquired for this purpose. We return to the moon using proven Saturn V type rockets. It will be the last major NASA initiative to use rocket technology to launch from earth.
- Scientists perfect methods of obtaining stem cells from adult humans without having to create and destroy an embryo. Scientists testify before Congress that it is critical that all Americans have stem cells banked. Democrats push for universal stem cell banking. Republicans say it will bankrupt the country and that private health insurance should help cover the cost. Health Insurance companies are of two minds. Some wait for Congress to act, others begin partially subsidizing the banking. Wealthier Americans begin banking stem cells at their own expense. Cost in the initial year is $50,000. The half-life of this cost is one year in the beginning, but the half-life itself has a half-life. By year five it costs about $100. This lower price ends the political controversy and the Universal Stem Cell Banking Act passes with a veto-proof majority. The President signs the bill calling it a giant leap forward.
- As stem cell banking reaches 90% compliance, stem cell medicine begins to snow ball. Hardly any area of medicine remains unchanged.
- Another branch of medicine, Native Transplant, allows scientists to grow organs from a patient's own stem cells for later transplant within the body. As a result, the field of artificial organs is basically shelved for a few years.
- Artificial blood is perfected. Patients who have lost the ability to produce blood are now given permanent blood replacement. These patients find that the artificial blood is superior. The medical community begins discussing the idea of blood replacement within healthy individuals as an elective procedure.
- A once-a-day oral medication that limits absorption from the digestive tract aids the battle against obesity. It quickly becomes the most prescribed medication in the history of the country. Some predict that exercise will be abandoned in favor of pill-popping. The opposite happens as Americans get out and enjoy their healthier bodies.
- Drugs that aid the sexual performance of both men and women continue to be refined.
- Artificial Photosynthesis devices are developed that use solar energy to split water into hydrogen and oxygen and provide fuel for both building and automotive fuel cells. Initially they are expensive and inefficient. But as costs come down and efficiency rises they are quickly adopted. Many homeowners find that the electric company is paying them every month for excess power. These payments are reduced over time as electricity becomes cheaper and as electric companies fight politically for survival. After numerous shut-downs and restructuring, the surviving power companies begin to rebound.
- The first tentative steps are taken toward life extension. By 2014, life extension enthusiasts have reason to believe that "escape velocity" has been reached in this field – each year brings more than a year's improvement in life expectancy. Nevertheless, age reversal remains elusive.
March 12, 2004
Good News Roundup
Two pieces of good space news:- The [Spirit] rover has been operating for 65 days on Mars and has an expected lifetime of 90 days. Spacecraft operators, however, said both rovers could easily last more than twice that long.
- The Hubble Space Telescope may have won a reprieve as Nasa has agreed to study ways to service it using robots.