Splitting the rocks of ignorance that obscure the light of knowledge and truth. Now let's all get drunk and play ping pong.

e-mail me at dry_coldAThotmail.com

 
Whew!

Word comes today that Ranger defenseman Brian Leetch has an ankle injury that could keep him out for about half the year. Now I'm really glad the Oilers didn't resign him.
posted by Austin at 4:40 PM

 
Comrie on block?

The big discussions around Edmonton water-coolers today centred on this story. (click here for the Journal's take). Basically, star centre, and local boy, Mike Comrie is said to have demanded a trade. The given reason is that there's too much pressure playing in his home town, as Comrie was the subject of a fair bit of critiicism after last season's loss to the Stars, especially from GM Kevin Lowe. Nobody is confirming or denying, and Lowe offers this cryptic comment, which doesn't exactly inspire confidence in the situation: "You know the old saying, expect the unexpected. Who knows where it's at? I guess we'll find out in the next few days.''

I suspect this is just a negotiating ploy, and as I type this, star Edmonton Journal writer Jim Matheson is offering the same opinion on the radio. I don't think the Oilers should trade him, but that seems to be a minority opinion. If Edmonton is to be successful, they need players exactly like Mike Comrie, young players with talent. That kind of player is in short supply in Edmonton already. But when I gave this opinion at work today, I was pretty much the only one. So what if he didn't play well last year in the playoffs? He's young, and besides, he's a big part of actually getting the Oilers to the playoffs in the first place. I don't understand the fans' opposition to this guy. It'd be a terrible shame if the fans run him out of town like they did Tom Poti.
posted by Austin at 4:36 PM

 
Winnipeg 36, Saskatchewan 18

Another week, another uninspired performance from the Roughriders. It's hard to imagine a team playing in front of 40,000 screaming fans and coming out absolutely flat. They were outcoached, outplayed, outhustled, and utterly embarrassed.

There was no emotion for the first quarter, and the Riders got absolutely smoked. Nealon Greene was his usual disappointing self, and apparently suffered a bit of a leg injury, so he was pulled at half time. The anointed savior, Henry Burris, had more rust on him than a 1978 Toyota Corolla, and proceeded to miss his first 5 passes. By the time he got untracked, the Riders were out of it.

I wrote a few weeks ago that the Riders were a very good team. I don't believe that anymore. They haven't put together a really good game in weeks, and they are clearly below the first tier of teams in the West. I think the best they can hope for is a .500 record, which might get them into the playoffs on the Eastern division crossover.
posted by Austin at 6:55 AM

 
Fun with Numbers, Part 2

Just for kicks, I took Henry Burris' stats from the 2000 season and plugged them into the same formula I used below. The results were a little surprising, and I feel obligated to report them for reasons of fairness. Henry comes out at 7.5, which is better than Nealon, but not by that much. Two or three more completions per game by Nealon would probably put him in that range. Henry's QB rating was just under 80, which is worse than Nealon's is this year, and doesn't factor in Nealon's superior running abilities.

All this to say that Henry may not be the magic bullet everyone's looking for. But's its also hard, as I point out below, to say that Nealon's been doing such an amazing job that Henry shouldn't even be given a chance.
posted by Austin at 8:56 PM

 
Fun with Numbers

Two bits of mathematical analysis for you today. First, the good news. I did a little strength-of-schedule analysis for the top 4 teams in the Western Division. Of the 4, the Riders have the easiest remaining schedule, with an opponents' winning percentage (OWP) of .475. The Bombers follow with an OWP of .500, the Eskimos at .550 and the Lions at .613. I count six legitimately winnable games for the Riders, which would give them a record of 12 and 6 and get them into the playoffs, perhaps even with a home playoff date.

Now for the bad news. There are people contending that Nealon has done a reasonable job at QB this year. So I decided to test those claims. I took a look at Nealon's production, calculating the yards he generates either by passing or through running the ball, then compared it to 9 other CFL QBs. (All the other teams' starters, plus Kevin Feterik.) Nealon finishes 2nd-last in this analysis, generating 6.9 yards per play. The league leaders are Dave Dickenson and Anthony Calvillo at 10.0 and 9.1 yards per play, respectively. The remaining QBs are bunched from 8.3 to 7.3 yards per play.

There are a couple arguments you could make in Nealon's favour. One, the Riders scheme is very conservative and doesn't allow him to generate a lot of yards. I suppose it is, but then Nealon's completion percentage should also be much higher than 59%. Adding a few more completions per game puts Nealon's yards per play in the middle of the pack. You can also argue that Nealon couldn't succeed in a different scheme because he doesn't have the skills. The other argument is that the receivers and offensive line are at fault, too, but I'd counter that Saskatchewan's talent in both those areas is probably top 5, if not better. It's difficult to make a case that Nealon has done an effective job at QB. He might not lose many games, but he's not winning many either.

If the Riders can get good defense and production from their running backs, average quarterbacking isn't a big problem. When those other things aren't working (as they haven't been in the past three weeks), and you need your QB to step forward, Nealon is probably not the man to hang your hat on.
posted by Austin at 8:50 PM

 
Right on Schedule

You just knew this was coming -- the Marty York column (scroll down to the second-last item) noting the Rider QB controversy, complete with the whisperings of disgruntled players.
posted by Austin at 8:27 PM

 
Renegades Release Davis

Word comes that the Ottawa Renegades have released running back Darren Davis for several violations of team policy.

It's too bad, really. Davis had two very good years with the Roughriders until he was traded to the Eskimos for Nealon Greene. He was absolutely dynamite running the ball, and nearly impossible to tackle on the first try. But injuries took their toll on him, and I suppose the discipline problems were the last straw.

But I'll always remember him because of this Rick Reilly column. Seems that Davis took the Wonderlic test -- the aptitude test given to NFL prospects -- and reportedly scored a 4 out of a possible 50. The average score for NFL prospects is 19. Goes to show that you don't need a lot of book learnin' to be a fine running back.
posted by Austin at 6:57 PM

 
Free Henry!

Looks like the looming QB controversy has finally erupted. Serious questions are being asked of Danny Barrett's decision to keep QB Nealon Greene in Saturday's game against the Eskimos. As noted earlier, Nealon had a decent second half, but an atrocious first half, going 7 of 15 for 68 yards and 1 interception. I think it would have been entirely fair to lift Nealon -- 3 points in a half is simply not acceptable, and it's not like there's a dearth of quarterbacking talent on the Riders. What's the point of proclaiming you have the best depth at quarterback in the league if you never get past the starter?

The case for Nealon seems to be that since he's 6-3 as a starter, he should keep being the starter. Not exactly the strongest argument, in my view. Nealon has played well at times this year, and he is certainly missing his security blanket, receiver Travis Moore. He's talented, but also erratic. The case for removing him as starter permanently hasn't been made, but that's only for lack of evidence. Other than the Montreal game, I've yet to see him play well for more than two quarters a game.

I'd really like to see what Henry Burris could do with this offense, and Saturday's game provided an excellent opportunity to find out. What's the harm in trying him out for a half? Worst case, you lose the game, which was probably going to happen anyway. You take some risk of damaging Nealon's psyche, but since when has football become kindergarten? And as Darrell Davis points out in his article, protecting Nealon like this carries the risk of angering other players. Maybe Danny's worried that he'll create a QB controversy if Henry does well, except the QB controversy was guaranteed the moment Henry was signed. I've got no predictions on when Henry might see action -- Danny is just bull-headed enough to stick with Nealon no matter what, and Nealon's numbers always seem to look OK enough for him to get another chance. But the Riders need to do better than just OK. Henry might just provide them with the spark to make a move in the West and grab a home playoff date for the first time since 1988. Or maybe not. But at least let him try.
posted by Austin at 4:48 PM

 
Random Vacation Thoughts

Things that popped into my head as I was driving around various parts of Manitoba, North Dakota and Montana:

Saw an article in the Winnipeg Free Press (sadly not online) talking about some guy's dream to bring the NHL back to Winnipeg. Naturally, he has no money, but he does have a website. This fellow is of the opinion that the economics of the NHL are going to be changed so much that Winnipeg will be able to support a team again. I think that's very optimistic. That's not happening unless the players union is broken and beaten to a bloody pulp, or if Bob Goodenow suddenly pulls an Alan Eagleson and becomes corrupt. I wouldn't be laying bets on either of those outcomes. Winnipeg just doesn't have the local revenues to make a go of it. Edmonton barely makes it right now, and Winnipeg is a poorer and smaller market, with less of a corporate presence.

Not that I was ever likely to refer to hockey as one of the four major sports in the U.S., but I'm even less likely now. Based on a totally unscientific survey of a couple of North Dakota sports apparel stores, NASCAR is way bigger. Actually, outside of the occasional reference to NCAA hockey, I didn't see or hear anything related to hockey. This seems a bit surprising, since North Dakota is hockey country, and they're not that far away from Minnesota.

I spent several minutes listening to a gripping debate on Minneapolis' major morning sports radio show concerning a growing controversy over the price of North Dakota duck hunting licenses. Any claims that Minneapolis has to being a worldly and cosmopolitan city must now be viewed with extreme skepticism.

And finally, a word to the wise: if you're ever in Havre, Montana, do not purchase any University of Montana paraphernalia. It's Montana State territory, apparently. I stopped to buy a Grizzlies T-shirt and darn near had an incident with the sales clerk. I was half expecting a posse to come after me, so I made a beeline for the Canadian border.
posted by Austin at 5:21 PM

 
Edmonton 49, Saskatchewan 31

Walking to Commonwealth Stadium yesterday, I remarked to my brother in my usual pessimistic fashion that I was just waiting for the Riders to get blown out this year. He noted that I might not have to wait very long, a prediction that proved all too prescient. It was an ugly game, my friends. The Riders were never really in it, and only some bizarre drama at the end of the game (more on that later) kept the game from being absolute failure.

Simply put, the Eskimos outplayed the Riders in every facet of the game. The Riders defense played poorly for the second week in a row (90 points in 2 games) which tells me that this defense is not even close to being the best in the league, as was suggested earlier in the year. They had no pass rush, which allowed Ricky Ray plenty of time to find open receivers. They couldn't play against the run either, letting Mike Pringle get over 100 yards. Not a good combination if you expect to stop anyone, and the Riders didn't. The Eskimos only had to punt 3 times all game.

On offense, it was almost as pathetic. It took them a whole quarter to get one first down, and they only had 3 points at the end of the half. Granted, they did get 28 points in the second half, but the game was out of reach by then. 2 touchdowns came in the last 3 minutes. Nealon Greene played average at best, completing 20 of 34 passes, but for only 217 yards. Nealon rushed for 51 yards on 10 carries, but none of his runs really sustained a drive. It was OK, but not good enough. Average is not what you need when you're fighting for a playoff spot. There was no move to put in Henry Burris, even though he might have provided a much needed spark. In any case, there's going to be a full blown QB controversy this week.

Since the Riders were never really in the game, it wasn't much fun to watch. Too bad, because there were a whole lot of Rider fans at the game -- maybe 10,000 or so. A good effort from the Riders would have been a lot of fun. The fans were just looking for something to cheer for, which probably made for the aforementioned drama at the end of the game. Since Saskatchewan had beaten Edmonton by 18 points in their first matchup, they needed to lose by 17 or less if they wanted to win the season series. The Riders needed some late heroics to go behind by only 15, and if you didn't know any better, you' would have thought it was for the game. As it turned out, the Eskimos kicked a field goal on the last play of the game to put the margin of victory to 18, which ties the season series.
posted by Austin at 4:59 PM

 
Hiatus

I'll be on vacation until August 23, when I promise to thrill readers with harrowing accounts of my trip to Commonwealth Stadium to watch the Riders take on the Eskimos. Until that time, you'll have to go elsewhere for your semi-daily dose of slurs and innuendo. (But please come back)

But before I forget, go read Dan Barnes' column. He's got good stuff on the Mark Messier-to-Edmonton rumours (won't happen), the fledgling Federal Hockey League (is it just a scam to bilk players out of money under the pretense of tryout camp fees?) and alas, the women's world cup of baseball, coming to an Edmonton diamond near you in 2004. Guess I won't have to go away for vacation next year.
posted by Austin at 7:03 AM

 
Bendrops Strikes Again!

From the Ottawa Citizen's account of Ottawa's 34-29 loss to the Blue Bombers yesterday:

The Renegades fell 34-29 to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers before 26,232 at Canad Inns Stadium in a game that could have gone to overtime if not for an inexcusable drop by Demetris Bendross.

I'm sorry, what was that again? Demetris Bendross dropped a key pass? That caused the Renegades to lose? Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha! Anyway...
posted by Austin at 6:59 AM