blog*spot

4/6/2004

US recognises Australian soldier 

The United States has awarded a senior Australian Army officer a Legion of Merit for his work in Iraq.

Brigadier Steve Meekin received the honour for his role in the coalition's Iraq Survey Group, which involved collecting and making safe more than 3,000 tonnes of Iraqi military material.

Defence Minister Robert Hill has paid tribute to Brigadier Meekin, saying the Legion of Merit is a significant US award.

This is weird. Last October Hill said to the Senate:

Brigadier Meekin is the Commander of the Joint Captured Materiel Exploitation Centre, which has the mission of examining and locating Iraq's conventional weapons, and is only peripherally involved in the investigation of Iraq's WMD programs.

How do you go from 'peripherally involved' to the Legion of Merit for your 'role in the coalition's Iraq Survey Group'?

# posted by Alan @ 4/6/2004 07:06:40 PM Permalink

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Counting Indonesia 

According to the KPU (electoral commission):

  • PDIP 18.5%
  • PKB 15.25
  • Golkar 14.04
  • PD 13.4
  • PKS 11.57
  • PPP 7.03

This is not what the polls predicted. It may just be an outlier called by early voting. It appears to be on a count of about 0.5%. If this trend stands the party of Gus Dur is running second to the party of Megawati. The Muslim parties have done better than expected and Golkar has done significantly worse. You'd expect Golkar to look weak at this stage when the outer islands are still counting. The Muslim surge was not expected at any stage.

The count is now up to 813 000 votes and the percentages are:

  • PDIP 19.05%
  • PKB 18.43
  • Golkar 15.04
  • PD 10.71
  • PKS 9.59
  • PPP 7.45

The surge for the PKB (Gus Dur) seems to be holding. The polls that showed Yudhoyono leading Megawati are not supported by PDIP running around 10 points ahad of PD. These figures (as always if they hold) are very bad news for Amien Rais, MPR Speaker and PAN leader. On these figures PAN is no longer a major party. Tutut's paln to succeed her father has only 2.1% so she can be dropped from the list of presidenciables. So probably, can Rais.

With the count at 1,393,540, PKB is has fallen away. Yudhoyono's presidential candidacy looks a lot stronger. PDIP is doing better than expected and Golkar is doing much worse.

  • PDIP 18.7
  • Golkar 15.46
  • PD 13.61
  • PKS 13.4
  • PKB 10.98
  • PPP 6.67
  • PAN.6.44

# posted by Alan @ 4/6/2004 07:05:53 AM Permalink

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U.S. doesn't want to give up power 

Beneath these machinations lies a dilemma for the Bush administration. While desiring the appearance of democracy for domestic and international purposes, it is afraid to surrender authority.

Its problem is that a free Iraq is unlikely to implement the U.S. agenda: a secular state, permanent military bases, American direction of the oil industry, a privatized economy and a foreign policy consonant with Washington's.

In designing their mission for Iraq, top Bush officials were hoping to re-enact the successes of the early Cold War. A reconstructed West Germany had helped consolidate Western Europe into a bastion of democratic capitalism and American power.

They envisioned a reformed, malleable post-Saddam government that could spark a similar transformation of the Middle East. Yet unlike Iraq, Germany possessed a tradition of parliamentary governance, an established capitalist class and a strong national identity, which made the transfer of political power less worrisome.

Moreover, Germany had first declared war on the United States, not the other way around. And the American occupiers possessed the authority that came from fighting and defeating an enemy, which had actually surrendered and disarmed.

By contrast, the U.S. strategy of racing to Baghdad bypassed tens of thousands of enemy troops, who retained their weapons and remained dangerous.

The result has been a disastrous occupation in which security remains an agonizing problem. The administration's current inability to arrange a viable political transition is but the most recent illustration of its foolishness in launching an invasion in the first place.

Boldface mine. Now that it's clear the Iraqi transitional government will not even control its own treasury we know the 'sovereign' Iraqi transitional government is going to lack sovereignty, security forces, and money. Other than a brief flag-raising ceremony at ITG headquarters what are they going to do?

# posted by Alan @ 4/6/2004 12:43:57 AM Permalink

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4/5/2004

The 2004 Indonesian Elections: How the System Works andWhat the Parties Stand For 

The first and most obvious feature of the new electoral system created by the Members of the current DPR in the four political laws of 20032 is that the system is clearly designed to favour the existing major political parties. All candidates in the DPR election must be part of an eligible party ticket, with independent or individual candidates not being allowed. Parties must be registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) and the KPU must be satisfied that the party conforms to a number of criteria set out in the legislation. To be eligible to contest the 2004 election a party must hold at least 2% of the seats in the current DPR. Only 6 parties were large enough to meet this criterion.

Parties that do not meet this criterion must convince the KPU that they have offices or a “full leadership” in at least two-thirds of Indonesia’s provinces and two-thirds of the districts[/regencies] (kabupaten) in those provinces. Eighteen parties have met these latter criteria, giving a total of 24 parties eligible to contest the election. Many of those parties are ones that were ruled ineligible on the first criteria (holding less than 2% of DPR seats) and have simply renamed themselves. For example, Partai Keadilan (Justice Party), whose 7 seats in the existing DPR was not enough to pass the threshold 2%, will compete as Partai Keadilan Sejahtera (Justice & Welfare Party).

Sherlock groups the Big 5 - PDIP, Golkar, PKB, PPP and PAN - according to 3 great aliran (currents) in Indonesian society, broadly secular nationalism - PDIP and Golkar, traditionalist Islam - PKB, modernist Islam - PPP and PAN. The Big 5 all have roughly similar platforms which bear little resemblance to their performance in power. The cabinet includes members of all the Big 5 (and several other parties as well) and there is not really a governing party in any familiar sense. In regional terms, PDIP dominates Java. Golkar is stronger in the outer islands. PKB does well in East Java. Non-Muslims tend to support PDIP or Golkar.

Incidentally the 1999 results took 2 months to count. This election is more complex because it includes voting for the DPR, DPD, provincial DPRDs and regency DPRDs. It will not take 2 months but it could take a while.

Sherlock's entire report is available (pdf).

# posted by Alan @ 4/5/2004 02:47:32 PM Permalink

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Escalation of fighting in Iraq 

Foreign Affairs Editor Peter Cave reports from Baghdad.

PETER CAVE: Until the closure last week of his newspaper for allegedly urging violent resistance against the US led occupation, Moqtada al-Sadr and his black shirted private army were a minor irritation to the US civilian administrator Paul Bremer.

Now the young cleric has become a focus of national attention and day and day after day he's turned tens out thousands of supporters out in Baghdad, Basra and around the holy city of Najaf where he has his base and where the protest turned to bloodshed.

PAUL BREMER: This morning a group of people in Najaf have crossed the line and they have moved to violence. This will not be tolerated, this will not be tolerated by the coalition, this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi people and this will not be tolerated by the Iraqi security forces.

PETER CAVE: In Baghdad thousands of Sadr supporters gridlocked the city centre as they laid siege to Paul Bremer's headquarters throughout the day. Shiites were repressed under Saddam Hussein and I asked Imam Hazin al Aaraji, who was leading the protest, if he now saw the American administration as the enemy?

Bremer is a fool. The coalition has maintained order with some difficulty with its current troop levels. The occupation's tactics in the Sunni triangle have not been a spectacular success in garnering popular support. If the Shia governorates are treated the same way they will react the same way.

If the Shia go into active rebellion that will multiply the population of potential rebels by around 5. Is Bremer going to increase the CPA's troops in Iraq by the same multiplier? al-Sadr is certainly the least attractive of the Shia leaders. That is not going to effect his ability to raise hell in Baghdad and the South. Nor are breathless Bremer blustering.

This is a high price to pay for Bremer's desire to close a newspaper despite the freedon of press guaranteed by the interim constitution.

# posted by Alan @ 4/5/2004 11:57:17 AM Permalink

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Aceh voters urged to show joyful face 

There are rumors however that the Democratic Party, which was co-founded by Gen. (ret) Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has more room to maneuver in the province compared to other parties. The party has denied the allegation.

In the meantime, human rights activists alleged on Sunday that the Indonesian Military (TNI) had asked voters in the areas in which the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) influence remains strong, to arrive at designated polling stations at least by Sunday, or one day before the election. Several subdistricts in Bireun, Tiro area in Pidie, Nissam and Sawang in North Aceh and several undisclosed villages in West Aceh and South Aceh, are declared to be the strongholds of GAM.

'Dozens of people were arrested for their refusal to leave their villages to vote,' said an activist, who asked not to be named.

The Aceh Military Administration however denied the allegations.

The electoral law forbids regional and local parties. This excludes Gerakan Aceh Merdeka (Free Aceh Movement) and Organisasi Papua Merdeka (Free Papua Organisation) campaigning or winning seats. It also ensures that all parties remain firmly under the control of members of the Jakarta elite. Aceh has been under martial law for over a year and the international press has been forbidden to report there. Papua is not under martial law but the human rights situation is grim.

# posted by Alan @ 4/5/2004 06:39:42 AM Permalink

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What a tangled war we weave... 

Downer denies Kabul pleaded for troops
Mr Rudd said Mr Powell's admission suggested that Australia went to war based on a lie and Mr Howard should explain why Australian troops were sent to Iraq.

"If Labor win the next election, they're going to have to work with Colin Powell," Mr Downer said. "My advice to them is that I don't think Colin Powell is going to think Kevin Rudd is a great guy if Kevin Rudd is running around suggesting he's a liar. I don't think Colin Powell will warm to that.

Powell doubts evidence for war
COLIN Powell has conceded that evidence he presented to the United Nations to justify the US-led invasion of Iraq might have been wrong.

The US Secretary of State admitted that the dramatic case he made to the UN Security Council in February 2003 was based on flawed intelligence about Iraq's weapons programs.

'At the time I was preparing that presentation it was presented to me as being solid,' he said at the weekend.

'Now it appears not to be the case, that it was that solid.'

Mr Powell made the admission when talking to reporters on a flight home from a trip to Europe.

It's never been easy to take Foreign Minister Alexander Downer seriously. His recent habit of screeching anti-American at the drop of a hat (any hat, anywhere) is making it even harder.

# posted by Alan @ 4/5/2004 05:34:40 AM Permalink

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Bush and Blair made secret pact for Iraq war 

President George Bush first asked Tony Blair to support the removal of Saddam Hussein from power at a private White House dinner nine days after the terror attacks of 11 September, 2001.

According to Sir Christopher Meyer, the former British Ambassador to Washington, who was at the dinner when Blair became the first foreign leader to visit America after 11 September, Blair told Bush he should not get distracted from the war on terror's initial goal - dealing with the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan.

Bush, claims Meyer, replied by saying: 'I agree with you, Tony. We must deal with this first. But when we have dealt with Afghanistan, we must come back to Iraq.' Regime change was already US policy.

Really this only confirms what has long been thought. Blair himself said Bush would have invaded much earlier without Blair's constraining influence.

Big question for the Man of Steel - was he privy to this arrangement? He was in Washington on 11 September and saw Bush and other heavies the next day. Arguably Howard committed himself to the War on Terror while still in Washington and without consulting the cabinet or parliament.

# posted by Alan @ 4/5/2004 05:16:41 AM Permalink

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Wikipedia | Single non-transferable vote 

The potential for tactical voting is large. Receiving only one vote, the rational voter must only vote for a candidate that has a chance of winning, but will not win by too great a margin. This also creates a gigantic opportunity for tactical nominations, with parties nominating candidates similar to their opponents' candidates in order to split the vote.

SNTV also results in complicated intra-party dynamics because in a SNTV system, a candidate must not only run against candidates from the other party, he or she must also run against candidates from their own party.

Because running on issues may lead to a situation in which a candidate becomes too popular and therefore steals votes away from other allied candidates, it has been argued that SNTV encourages legislators to join factions which consist of patron-client relationships in which a powerful legislator can apportion votes to his or her supporters. It has been argued that many of the characteristics of the Kuomintang in Taiwan and the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan arise because of this.

In addition, parties must ensure that their supporters evenly distribute their votes among the party's candidates. In Taiwan, the Kuomintang does this by sending members a letter telling them which candidate to vote for. With the Democratic Progressive Party, vote sharing is done informally, as members of a family or small group will coordinate their votes. The New Party had a surprisingly effective system by asking party supporters to vote for the candidate that corresponded to their birthdate.

Iraq's interim constitution, Article 32(B) mandates SNTV for the election of the president of the National Assembly. The three highest candidates are elected respectively president, first and second deputy president of the assembly.

A system that so drastically favours horse-trading and gives rise to unexpected results does not obviously recommend itself to a nation with limited experience of parliamentary wheeling and dealing and a pronounced tendency to blame adverse results on conspiracy.

# posted by Alan @ 4/5/2004 03:45:49 AM Permalink

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4/4/2004

Indonesian elections 

The parliamentary numbers are drawn from Elections around the world. The interpretation is mine.

President
Megawati Soekarnaputri (2001) PDIP The president is elected for a five year term by popular vote. The government is dominated by the PDIP. Gus Dur (also named Abdulrahman Wahid) was elected by the Majelis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (People's Consultative Assembly) in 1999 and later removed from office and replaced by Megawati, his vice-president. The MPR was changed in 2003 to comprise the elected members of the DPR and DPD. Its powers have been reduced greatly. The first presidential election by popular vote is in June.

Parliament
The Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (Council of People's Representatives) has 550 deputies elected for a five year term by proportional representation in multi-member constituencies.

There also a new senate, the Dewan Perwakilan Daerah (Council of Regional Representatives), with 4 members from each province elected on a non-partisan basis.

The parties in the current DPR are:

  • Partai Demokrasi Indonesia - Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party - Struggle) PDIP 37.4% 154 deputies
  • Partai Golongan Karya (Party of Functional Groups). This was the ruling party of the Suharto dictatorship's New Order Golkar 20.9% 120 deputies
  • Partai Kebangkitan Bangsa (National Awakening Party). Former president Gus Dur heads this moderate Muslim party. He was elected by the MPR in 1999 on a deal brokered by Amien Rais and the Muslim parties. PKB 17.4% 51 deputies.
  • Partai Persatuan Pembangunan (United Development Party, moderate Muslim) .The PPP was one of the two licit opposition parties under the New Order. PPP 10.7% 58 deputies.
  • Partai Amanat Nasional (National Mandate Party, moderate Mulsim) MPR Speaker Amien Rais leads the PAN. PAN 7.3% 35 deputies.
  • Partai Bulan Bintang (Crescent Star Party) PBB 1.8% 14 deputies
  • Partai Keadilan (Justice Party) PK 1.3% 6 deputies
  • Partai Keadilan dan Persatuan (Justice and Unity Party) PKP 0.9% 6 deputies
  • Partai Nahdlatul Umat (Nahdlatul Ummat Party) PNU 0.6% 3 deputies
  • Partai Persatuan (United Party) PP 0.5% 1 deputy
  • Partai Demokrasi Indonesia (Democratic Party of Indonesia) PDI 0.4% 3 deputies. The PDI was one of the two licit opposition parties under the New Order. The Suharto regime intervened to sack Megawati as party president. She then formed the PDI-P as an independent party that went on to win the 1999 election.
  • Nasional Indonesia Front Marhaenis (Indonesian National Party Front Marhaenis) PNIFM 0.4% 1 deputy
  • Partai Nasional Indonesia (Indonesian National Party) PNI 0.4% 1 deputy
  • Partai Nasional Indonesia Massa Marhaen (Indonesian National Party Massa Marhaen) PNIMM 0.4% 1 deputy
  • Partai Syarikat Islam Indonesia (Indonesian United Islam Party) PSII 0.3% 1 deputy
The declared presidential candidates are:
  • President Megawato Sukarnoputri PDI-P
  • DPR Speaker Tanjong Akbar Golkar
  • Ex Chief of the armed forces Wiranto Golkar
  • Siti 'Tutut' Hardijanti Rukmana (Suharto's daughter and last social welfare minister)
  • MPR Speaker Amien Rais PAN
  • Expresident Gus Dur PKB
  • Ex security minister Bambang Yudhoyono

The legislative election will show the party's current standings and give some sign of who can form a winning coalition. Megawati hopes to run with Akbar Tanjung as her vice-presidential candidate and combine the PDI-P/Golkar vote.

# posted by Alan @ 4/4/2004 07:09:58 AM Permalink

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4/3/2004

The Terrorist Within 

The agents in Minneapolis were having the same thoughts. Ghimenti was called and asked again for help on the search warrant. Later that day, the FBI seized Moussaoui's laptop.

On Sept. 12, Ghimenti and Humphries flew to Paris. Ghimenti told Humphries about the FBI's stalled inquiry into Moussaoui - the man who in December would be charged as an accomplice in the Sept. 11 attacks.

Humphries was eager to question Ressam about what he might know about the attacks on New York and Washington. But it took the agent five days to make it home to Seattle.

When Humphries was able to show Ressam a photograph of Moussaoui, Ressam said he recognized the French national as having been with him at the Khalden camp in 1998.

Given the opportunity, might Ressam have identified Moussaoui earlier, spurring the FBI in Washington to pursue the Moussaoui search warrant?

Might that warrant have yielded information that could have helped the bureau disrupt the Sept. 11 plot?

Humphries was haunted by the possibilities.

Perhaps if the Minneapolis FBI had told FBI headquarters that Moussaoui was involved with missile defence?

# posted by Alan @ 4/3/2004 11:01:13 AM Permalink

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Surveys show Indonesian president in danger of losing elections 

The International Foundation for Electoral Studies says it is the first time, since its surveys began last December, that she is not the first choice.

The survey, conducted between March 21 and 28, shows 19 per cent support for Golkar compared to 8.6 per cent for PDI-P and 7.3 percent for the National Mandate Party, led by national assembly speaker Amien Rais.

However, more than half the respondents declined to say who they will vote for or had yet to make up their minds.

For the presidential election on July 5, Mr Yudhoyono has 18.4 per cent support compared to 11.6 percent for Mrs Megawati.

Mr Yudhoyono quit his ministerial post last month after complaining that the president was freezing him out of cabinet meetings because of his presidential bid.

A separate poll by the Indonesian Survey Institute, conducted on March 18, a week after the campaign began, shows 23.2 per cent for Golkar and 17.5 percent for PDI-P.

When asked about presidential preferences, almost 21 per cent picked Mr Yudhoyono, 17.4 per cent chose Mrs Megawati.

More than 147 million people in the world's third largest democracy are eligible to vote.

Just some background figures...

# posted by Alan @ 4/3/2004 10:56:22 AM Permalink

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Indonesian election: Clues to the future 

Barring any last-minute snafus in the delivery of ballots across this archipelago of more than 1.9 million square kilometers, Indonesians will go to the polls on Monday for the first of up to three elections over the next five months. This initial election for legislators may be the least important, particularly since the House of Representatives has failed to act on 90 percent of the bills brought before it.

The 22-day official campaign period has not evolved into an orgy of debate over the crises facing the globe's fourth-most-populous nation, which includes more Muslims than any other country (see Indonesia: 24 parties and nothing to celebrate, March 16). Monday's voting, however, will give important clues about how the presidential race will play out. Investors and others should pay close attention.

For starters, only parties that receive 3 percent of the votes in this phase will be eligible to place a presidential candidate on the ballot for voting in July. Leading figures from parties that miss the cutoff may be attractive to rivals, despite their limited popular support, as vice-presidential candidates, to bring regional or political balance to a ticket, or for other reasons.

Things to watch for:

  • the combined Muslim vote - PKB (Gus Dur) + PAN (Amien Rais)
  • the SARS (sindrom aku rindu Suharto = I miss Suharto) vote - Wiranto + Tutut + Prabowo + Golkar
  • the PDIP vote

This is a legislative election. Megawati's ruling PDI-P is likely to see its vote crash precipitously. The real question is if it falls to less than Golkar or if the combined PDI-P/Golkar falls below 50%. If either or both happen it will become almost impossible for Megawati to be re-elected. A party with less than 3% of the popular vote to run a presidential candidate in June. If no-one gets more than 50% in June there will be a runoff in August.

The other issue is the contest for the Golkar nomination where the leading 'lights' are Tanjung Akbar and Wiranto. Wiranto is wanted on international warrants for crimes against humanity in East Timor. I'll try and run another election burst on 5 April, but my Bahasa is not nearly as competent as my Spanish.

# posted by Alan @ 4/3/2004 10:41:43 AM Permalink

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Intelligence chiefs caught in crossfire 

'These briefings are always done by request of the minister. They are told broadly what subject matters are broached but there are no hard and fast rules,' said one former public servant who has given briefings on national security to opposition leaders. 'There's usually a question and answer session. This can be free-wheeling. It's never reported back to the minister.'

It would be highly inappropriate if it were because it would give the minister access to information that could easily be used politically. For example, to get a sense of an opponent's future policy direction. Note-takers will have to be present at future intelligence briefings and the utility of those briefings will be severely diminished.

More damaged still is the reputation of the intelligence services. After the children overboard claims, the Mick Keelty affair and the Iraq WMD controversy, it's just another example of politicisation undermining public confidence in the institutions at the forefront of the war on terrorism.

I think this is a terrific idea. Note-takers should also be present whenever the Man of Steel or a member of the palace staff are briefed by the intelligence agencies. Or when children are thrown overboard. Or intelligence caveats are withheld from the public. Or when WMDs are reported by the intelligence agencies. Or when the intelligence agencies advise the government that the Iraq war is likely to exacerbate terrorism. Or when the palace staff draft statements for police commissioners and heads of intelligence agencies.

No-one could imagine our open and honest prime minister could possibly have the slightest objection.

# posted by Alan @ 4/3/2004 02:06:26 AM Permalink

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Condi Rice's other wake-up call 

FMR US SENATOR GARY HART: No. But as one of those fearing a near-term attack, I went out on my own throughout the spring and summer of 2001 saying, 'The terrorists are coming, the terrorists are coming.' One of the speeches I gave was, ironically enough, to the International Air Transportation Association in Montreal. And the Montreal newspapers headlined the story, 'Hart predicts terrorist attacks on America.'

By pre-arrangement I had gotten an appointment with Condi Rice the following day and had gone straight from Montreal to Washington to meet with her. And my brief message to her was, 'Get going on homeland security, you don't have all the time in the world.' This was on Sept. 6, 2001.

SALON: What was her response?

HART: Her response was 'I'll talk to the vice president about it.' And this tracks with Clarke's testimony and writing that even at this late date, nothing was being done inside the White House.

Now Hart is certainly disgruntled. He co-chaired a commission on US national security. They reported in January 2001. Among others things they recommended a homeland security department. The Bush administration rejected that advice until June 2002.

Okay, it's an obscure little piece of bureaucratic history. It's also independent confirmation of the Clarke claims. It's also emblematic of the Bush administration's refusal to give terror any priority until it became electorally advantageous Go read the whole interview. And weep.

# posted by Alan @ 4/3/2004 12:38:21 AM Permalink

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4/2/2004

A Response to Fallujah 

The reality is that during the past month there has been a major increase in casualties, both U.S. and Iraqi, military and civilian, even as a troop rotation has reduced the number of U.S. forces by 20 percent and replaced many regular Army units with reservists. The turning point against Iraqi insurgents that U.S. commanders have been talking about for months simply hasn't happened in Fallujah or elsewhere in the Sunni heartland, and other parts of the country are growing more dangerous. The lack of security is not only blocking economic recovery: As June 30 rapidly approaches, the risk is growing that the end of the occupation period will be followed not by a transition to democratic government but by chaos or civil war.

Acknowledging the problem will help Mr. Bush summon the political will to reexamine the strategy of the Pentagon and the Coalition Provisional Authority and make necessary adjustments. It is critical that U.S. commanders respond forcefully to Fallujah and step up the counteroffensive against the Sunni insurgency. Militias operating elsewhere in the country -- particularly the Shiite Mahdi Army of Moqtada Sadr -- must be disbanded and disarmed before they, too, begin targeting U.S. troops and allied Iraqis. Are there now sufficient forces in Iraq to undertake these missions? Many outside experts believe there are not. They also point to the failure of the occupation authorities to adequately train or equip the Iraqi police who are supposed to maintain order in cities such as Fallujah. Mr. Bush must not hesitate to order more troops, more trainers and more equipment for Iraq, even it means disrupting the Pentagon's rotation plans. He also should renew the effort to recruit allies to share the burden.

The security response needs to be coupled with a more vigorous effort to forge a political consensus on Iraq's future. Administration officials are betting heavily that a single man, U.N. envoy Lakhdar Brahimi, will somehow produce a plan for a transitional government in the coming weeks that all sides will accept. But Mr. Brahimi is not a miracle worker, and his effort won't succeed unless more of Iraq's real power brokers, especially in the Shiite clergy, are persuaded to support the process. Sticking to the June 30 transition date will invite disaster if the government that takes power is, like the current Governing Council, seen by most Iraqis as illegitimate or as a U.S. puppet. Then the appalling violence of Fallujah will worsen and spread.

In ways this post follows from my thoughts about the interim constitution. The interim constitution just does not give the transitional government enough power to command any legitimacy, especially when you consider that the US will retain control of the security forces, the purse strings, and those parts of the government controlled by the continuing CPA appointees. The enormous patronage controlled by Ahmed Chalabi though the debaathification and property commissions will make him almost unstoppable except in the face of strong democratic institutions. An appointed executive operating without a parliament, and in control of elections to any future parliament, is a recipe for disaster. As is the cutback in US troop numbers.

Spain is withdrawing 1300 troops from Iraq. They are also sending additional troops to Afghanistan. The US is withdrawing around around 30 000 troops. I am unsure why the Spanish withdrawal is to be condemned but the US withdrawal is not. Time to scratch the 30 June obsession and see about building a new interim constitution that addresses Iraqi, not US, needs.

The latest US effort at retainig effective sovereignty while granting ceremonial concerns the defence ministry

A bigger concern for many Iraqis is how "real" the post June 30 sovereignty will be, particularly with the US making it clear that it will retain control over all security forces, and a current draft law on the table for the Ministry of Defense that seeks to give the US the power to appoint the minister, and hopefully keep him in for a five-year term.

I am unaware of any nation on earth that gives its defence minister a fixed term, or for that matter of any sovereign nation whose defence minister is appointed by another. Constitutional trickiness of this kind is not going to add to the transitional government's legitimacy.

# posted by Alan @ 4/2/2004 10:13:03 PM Permalink

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The Dogs That Didn't Bark - Why Colin Powell and George Tenet aren't bashing Richard Clarke 

If Clarke is spewing nonsense - if the president and his national security adviser really did consider al-Qaida an urgent matter - Tenet is the man to say so. It's hard to imagine that the White House hasn't tried to recruit him to do so. Yet so far he hasn't.

Tenet is not the only quiet dog. One of the hounds that the White House did unleash - Secretary of State Powel - not only declined to growl, but practically purred like a kitten. Interviewed on Jim Lehrer's NewsHour, Powell said: 'I know Mr. Clarke. I have known him for many, many years. He's a very smart guy. He served his nation very, very well. He's an expert in these matters.' His book 'is not the complete story,' but, Powell added, 'I'm not attributing any bad motives to it.'

Asked if he had been recruited to join the campaign against Clarke, Powell replied, 'I'm not aware of any campaign against Mr. Clarke, and I am not a member.'

His choice of words here is fascinating. Note: He did not say 'There is no campaign,' but rather 'I'm not aware of any campaign.' As has been widely observed, Powell truly is out of the loop in this administration; it's conceivable he is unaware. He then went on to say, '[A]nd I am not a member' - suggesting there might be a campaign, but he's not part of it.

Clarke is not the first Bush administration official to be suddenly flung down from favour. Consider:

  • General Eric Shinseki
  • Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill
  • Ambassador Joseph Wilson

In each case the former official's allegations of fact have not been disputed, Instead we've seen a sustained and puerile assault on their character or motivation. As we speak a similar exercise is developing against the Medicare actuary threatened with the sack if he told the Congress the truth. Today's NYT editorialises that:

When the Army chief of staff, Gen. Eric Shinseki, dared to say publicly that several hundred thousand troops would be needed to occupy Iraq, he was ridiculed by the administration and his career was brought to a close. When Mr. Bush's former Treasury secretary, Paul O'Neill, disclosed that planning for an invasion of Iraq was already under way in early 2001, he was denounced as someone who didn't know what he was talking about. And there's hardly a serious person in the country who is unaware of the administration's sliming of Richard Clarke, who said, among other things, that the war in Iraq had undermined the war against terror.

If only the Bush administration was as good at fighting terrorists as it is at shooting the messenger.

# posted by Alan @ 4/2/2004 01:21:22 AM Permalink

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4/1/2004

Google is disgruntled and probably gay, just like Dick Clarke 

Try googling weapons of mass destruction.

# posted by Alan @ 4/1/2004 09:19:15 AM Permalink

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It's back: Tassie tiger cloned 

Scientists have caused a worldwide sensation after successfully cloning a Tasmanian tiger.

The extinct animal has been resurrected by the geneticists who created Dolly the sheep.

Already the female animal, which has been named Tassie, is being hailed as one of the most significant scientific breakthroughs of the past 100 years.

Using the cutting-edge technology, DNA was extracted from Tasmanian tiger bones to bring the animal back to life.

Tassie has come back from exctinction decades after the last known Tasmanian tiger, or thylacine, died in captivity in Hobart in 1936.

Its existence has been kept a closely guarded secret until now.

Okay, you look at the 1 April dateline and move on. The Sydney Morning Herald does a better job with its report that:

Yum cha restaurants in Chinatown will now have to train workers who push food carts to pass a "driving licence" under new regulations from Sydney City Council.

The move comes after a spate of accidents in which novice or careless trolley-pushers have crashed carts, injuring or making a mess of patrons and co-workers.

In one case last year, an elderly customer at a large yum cha restaurant was covered in plates of sticky black bean sauce after a trolley waitress lost her load while she was text messaging on her mobile phone.

The weirdness about the Telegraph's thylacine story is that the Australian Museum (actually the NSW state museum, but I digress) is making a serious attempt to clone the thylacine:

After more than two years of ongoing cloning research, the Australian Museum has overcome a crucial obstacle in its continuing efforts to bring back to life the extinct Tasmanian Tiger.

In May 2002 the Evolutionary Biology Unit at the Australian Museum in Sydney successfully replicated individual Tasmanian Tiger genes using a process known as PCR (Polymerase Chain Reaction). These new discoveries and the story of the Museum's ongoing efforts have been exclusively documented by the Discovery Channel in The End of Extinction: Cloning the Tasmanian Tiger, premiering in 155 countries world-wide, including Australia, on July 7 at 7.30pm.

This remarkable journey which hopes to turn science fiction into science fact began in 1999 when the Australian Museum embarked on a never-before-attempted project to bring back an extinct species.

The last known Tasmanian Tiger, or Thylacine, died in captivity in 1936, but a team of biologists believe the animal's extinction may simply be a 70-year hiccup.

Southerly Buster would like a cuddly diprotodon for the back yard, but fears that particular cloning still is a little way off. Southerly Buster also vigorously supports John Quiggin's fair and balanced call for the eating of chocolate bilbies at Easter.

Frankly, we'd support eating Bushies if chocolate ones were available.

# posted by Alan @ 4/1/2004 06:44:26 AM Permalink

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3/31/2004

Disputes over ownership fuel Iraq tensions 

The occupying authorities had intended to resolve property claims through arbitration. Last January Paul Bremer, Iraq's American administrator, ordered the Governing Council to establish the Iraq Property Claims Commission, and three months later coalition officials say the commission is two weeks away from starting to process claims. But Hisham Shibli, Iraq's justice minister, says that though commissions will be independent, they will not tackle expropriation by senior officials.

Many exile groups that make up Iraq's US-backed former opposition are descendants of the pre-1958 revolution gentry that was overthrown that year along with King Faisal II. The property question is seen by many as an attempt at the restoration of these old aristocratic families to their former places of prominence.

Mr Chalabi, the scion of a pre-1958 revolution aristocratic family, has used his militia to reclaim a defunct flour mill in a Baghdad district that used to belong to the Chalabis, along with what he says is his sister's home used by the Ba'ath party intelligence service.

In late February, the Council's de-Ba'athification Committee, which Mr Chalabi heads, ordered the confiscation of all property belonging to the senior 1,500 cadres of the former Ba'athist regimes and their relatives. The inventory is still under preparation.

Meanwhile, property prices in the Shia Muslim holy cities of Najaf and Karbala are said to have risen twice as fast as in Baghdad, as tens of thousands of refugees from Iran tentatively replant their roots.

Disputes over property ownership have fed an already tense political situation throughout Iraq. In an attempt to defuse the property dispute, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the country's highest-ranking Shia cleric, ruled that property confiscated by Ba'athists and still in public hands should be returned to its original owners.

The dispossession policy is really just a replay of the extraordinarily foolish decision to disband the old Iraqi army. The difference is that this one effectively questions every land title in the country and transfers its disposition to the least popular member of the IGC. That does not read to me as a policy that is likely to contribute to reconciliation or tranquillity in Iraq, especially when it is realised that the handover of sovereignty will leave this process beyond the control of the transitional government.

# posted by Alan @ 3/31/2004 10:22:24 PM Permalink

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Stuffing the briefs 

After listening to today's set piece in parliament I have to wonder why no-one wants to ask the basic question. It is now common ground that Iron Mark was briefed. The dispute is about the content of the briefing by the deputy secretary of the department of foreign affairs and others.

Howard contends the briefings did not cover Iraq and Afghanistan. latham contends they did.

Let us, for the sake of argument, assume Howard is being truthful. In that case it is a major scandal that the government is providing inadequate and misleading information to the alternative prime minister. No doubt someone will ask it at some stage and no doubt the prime minister's staff will draft the customary denials for the customary signatures by various officials with high-sounding designations. This is a shadow play and a disgrace that exposes Howard as the constitutional radical he is.

The form of government the Man of Steel is creating is a Stalinate© in which the prime minister (in addition to his legitimate functions) serves as the effective head of state by appearing as the central figure at all national occasions and also replaces the bureaucracy by having various independent officials sign statements actually drafted by the prime ministerial staff.

Stuffing the briefings to the alternative prime minister for political advantage is really only par for the course.

# posted by Alan @ 3/31/2004 09:02:53 PM Permalink

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