changing the face of southern politics
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3.2.2004
ICE COLD EXIT POLLS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA: I've haven't been blogging that much recently, since I have needed to get caught up with schoolwork I missed during the SC Presdential Primary. But I did run some of the numbers on the primary results to get some interesting conclusions.
I decided to see whether Edwards "jobs" message or Kerry's "veteran" image had any play, and whether or not "the black vote" lined up for any particular candidate.
JOBS: In the 13 counties with double-digit unemployment, Edwards did better than his statewide performance
Edwards: 49 percent (versus 45.3 percent statewide)
Kerry: 27.0 (29.8)
Sharpton: 9.3 (9.6)
VETS: In the 13 counties where veterans make up 15 percent or more of the population, Kerry overperformed including wins over Edwards in vet-heavy Beaufort and Sumter. But Edwards still won overall.
Edwards: 41.9 (45.3)
Kerry: 31.9 (29.3)
Sharpton 10.9 (9.6)
BLACKS: In the 12 SC counties that are majority African-American, Sharpton only did 2 percent better than his statewide average.
Edwards: 43.5 (45.3)
Kerry: 29.8 (29.3)
Sharpton 11.9 (9.6)
7:57 PM
BANAL COMPARISONS: A look at the quotes that shape our world. Part of an ongoing series
Michael Graham making fun of Maureen Dowd:
Now the Giggling Girl of the Gray Lady gives us idiocy like this: "This is a Mel Gibson film, so you come out wanting to kick somebody's teeth in. In 'Braveheart' and 'The Patriot,' his other emotionally manipulative historical epics, you came out wanting to swing an ax into the skull of the nearest Englishman. Here, you want to kick in some Jewish and Roman teeth. And since the Romans have melted into history . ."
First of all, has anyone EVER come out of a Mel Gibson movie wanting to beat in anyone's head? [2/27/2004]
Well, gee Michael I don't know. Maybe if I scroll down on your own freakin' webpage to somethin you said JUST TWO DAYS EARLIER.
And yes, Mel Gibson's "Passion" does stir up anger against those responsible for the Crucifixion: After the movie, I wanted to kick the crap out of a Roman. [2/25/2004]
Michael Graham's defense of course will be that "kick the crap out of" is completely different from "beat in anyone's head." At least he made no mention of using a tire iron this time.
7:39 PM
2.22.2004
CHERRY PICKING WATCH: Instapundit links approvingly to this note from John Ellis that Democrats just aren't that fired up about the primaries.
They're Fired Up, They're Just Not Voting: One of the prevailing myths of this campaign season is that Democrats are fired up as never before, eager to slay the evil Bush. Well, maybe so, but they're not voting. Overall, turnout in last Tuesday's Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary was down by 183,000 votes from 1988. Kerry trailed Dukakis by 150,000 votes. Liberal media (not that they're not objective!) have somehow overlooked this angle.
Extrapolating from a single data point! Here we go again! Never mind that - Edwards surge or no - most people had already assumed that Kerry had the nomination wrapped up on the eve of Wisconsin - which is sure to depress voter turnout.
For the record here are turnout numbers from primaries held when the outcome was still in doubt and more people were inclined to turnout.
Iowa: 124,000 voters, a record turnout
New Hampshire: 208,000 votes, an all-time Democratic record
South Carolina: 268,000+ votes, an all-time Democratic record. Des Moines Register puts the final total at 286,000.
Arizona: 224,000 votes, an all time record.
But these are early contests, what about later contests?
Maine: 15,000 votes, a record turnout
Nevada: 8,000 votes in Clark County alone, an all time record (I can't find statewide numbers, but you get the picture)
So the inability of Democrats to keep themselves in a constant weeks-long fever pitch of excitement for EACH AND EVERY PRIMARY is proof positive that we aren't excited. And wasn't this sort of frenzied Bush hatred a bad thing just a few short months ago? Now we're somehow insufficiently angry?
And the liberal media, after seeing record turnout in a string of few primaries, is unwilling to buy Ellis' spin. But Instapundit apparently is. Advantage ....?
3:45 AM
2.18.2004
TAKING SPIN SERIOUSLY: Journalists are too cynical for their own good. They cynically dismiss spin and focus on the reality. I think this is a mistake. Sometimes the best way to ridicule spin is to take it seriously.
Consider the spin from the Lieberman campaign after New Hampshire, touting a "three-way tie for third place." Most reporters brushed off this spin as a delusional rant by a dying candidate.
But what if a reporter had taken his premise seriously, and followed it to its logical conclusion?
Senator Lieberman, I agree with you that your third-place showing in New Hampshire promises to propel your campaign the way similar Granite State third place finishes have in the past. How does your third-place finish compare with that of:
Steve Forbes in 2000?
Lamar Alexander in 1996?
Bob Kerrey in 1992?
Jack Kemp in 1988?
John Glenn in 1984?
Howard Baker in 1980?
I was fulling prepared to unload a similar burst of naive ridicule on Howard Dean if he had decided to "suspend" his campaign - joining such famous suspenders as Paul Tsongas and John McCain - but he did the manly thing and dropped out, more or less.
11:56 AM
2.12.2004
GOOD ANDY, BAD ANDY: Andrew Sullivan thinks that those peddling the Kerry infidelity rumor deserve to be trashed.
Except of course, when HE is the one doing the trashing.
Here he is repeating breathless gossip from Kausfiles or making fun of innocent photos of Kerry interns.
Bear in mind that the Good Andy and Bad Andy posts were all written in the SAME AFTERNOON. In one instance, the contradictory posts were just 24 MINUTES apart. I doubt the blogosphere can take much more of these mood swings.
6:10 PM
2.11.2004
MICHIGAN BOTCHES PRIMARY: Of course, I have been holed up at law school for the past week trying to catch up from my South Carolina primary adventure. But the fact the Michigan can't run a simple caucus without screwing it up gave me more than a little bit of pleasure.
Local Black leaders and frustrated voters in Detroit are demanding the resignation of the head of the Michigan Democratic Party, after problems at polling sites left many feeling their vote was “disenfranchised.”
In this transcript, Chris Matthews also put the Governor of Michigan on the hotseat:
MATTHEWS: Another big night for John Kerry. He‘s won the caucuses in both Washington State and Michigan. Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm joins us right now. Governor Granholm, thank you for joining us.
Let me ask you about those voting irregularities, and
(UNINTELLIGIBLE). Why do we always have problems in big cities? What is the problem with the Democrats running elections? Can‘t they do it?
GOV. JENNIFER GRANHOLM (D), MICHIGAN: Of course we can.
MATTHEWS: No, seriously, why do you guys have all these irregularities? You guys knew this election was coming.
GRANHOLM: We could have worse problems—we could have worse problems than more people wanting to vote than we have ballots or places to vote.
It could have been worse? That's your spin, Governor?
To the people of Michigan I say - what a bunch of amateurs. And to all the people who tried to badmouth our primary with talk of "It can't be done." -- You can kiss my ass.
3:29 PM
2.2.2004
SOUTH CAROLINA PRIMARY BLOG-A-THON: The good people at Absit Invidia are running a blog-a-thon during the Feb 3rd primary to benefit the Jimmy Fund. Check it out. The Feb. 3rd state that raises the most money for charity gets a prize.
9:27 PM
SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PARTY RECEIVES CLEARANCE TO PULL PLEDGE
DEMOCRATS, INDEPENDENTS, AND REPUBLICANS WHO WANT TO VOTE IN THE SOUTH CAROLINA DEMOCRATIC PREISDENTIAL PRIMARY ARE WELCOME WITH OPEN ARMS
COLUMBIA – South Carolina Democratic Party Chair Joe Erwin announced today that he received clearance from the National Democratic Party to pull the voter pledge in the South Carolina Democratic Party.
“Excitement is building for the South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary and hundreds of thousands of South Carolina voters want to take part. We at the South Carolina Democratic Party have heard their voices and today we are acting to send a message that they know they are welcome in our primary,” said State Party Chair Joe Erwin.
The pledge, which has been part of South Carolina Democratic elections since 1976, was put into place to ensure voters didn’t vote in more than one primary on the same day. Chairman Erwin said he contacted National Party leaders and was granted permission to proceed without the pledge.
“With all the excitement and intense competition about the primary building out there in the community, we were receiving information that some people who do not want to see our Primary succeed were spreading confusion about the pledge to try to depress turnout and confuse voters. Although the purpose of this pledge was always to just ensure people didn’t vote in more than one Presidential Primary, we thought it best with all the excitement to work with the National party to see if we could meet their standards without it,” said Erwin. “The national party was very supportive of our efforts. They understand that voters from the across the country are turning to Democrats and Democratic candidates for leadership and a vision for a better future for us all.”
Erwin said that he informed the Presidential campaigns today about the decision to go forward in Tuesday’s primary without the pledge by telephone conference call. The Party is also alerting poll workers and County chairman about the decision to not use the pledge on Primary Day.
“Our Democratic candidates for President have campaigned hard here in South Carolina and made our state and our country proud with their visionary leadership and positive policies to grow our economy and create jobs,” said Erwin. “It is no wonder that Democrats, Independents, and disaffected Republicans want to vote in the Democratic Primary. They are welcome with open arms. And now there is nothing to discourage South Carolina voters from participating.”
--30--
3:15 PM
2.1.2004
SELF-RIGHTEOUS LAUGHINGSTOCK ENDORSED BY SELF-RIGHTEOUS LAUGHINGSTOCK: The State newspaper's endorsement of Joe Lieberman is pretty typical. Unfortunately, Lieberman will be on all of the Sunday shows touting this as yet another example of JOEMENTUM.
For all of the talk about "two South Carolinas" coming from the editorial page, you would think that John Edwards and his "two Americas" stump speech would be a natural endorsement. Of course, in 2000 The State was railing against the special interest power of the video poker lobby, then they snubbed John McCain, the scourge of the special interests. The State endorsed Bush instead.
Brad Warthen claims that Lieberman hasn't received a close enough look. Never mind that the voters of New Hampshire took a very close look. Lieberman skipped Iowa and campaigned there nonstop, bought a condo and lived in New Hampshire for the last six weeks. He's gotten a plenty of close looks.
In other news, The State is pleased to announce that it is "in a three-way tie for third place" among Pulitizer Prize voting.
10:23 AM
1.28.2004
WHO IS ROY NEEL? With the news that Dean has dumped Trippi for longtime Gore adviser Roy Neel, I decided to to a little digging on Google.
He's a lobbyist.
A telecom lobbyist
CNN bio of Neel describes him thusly:Neel, another longtime Gore staff member, stayed with Gore throughout his tenure in the House and Senate and became Gore's chief of staff in 1993 when Gore became vice president. Neel was known as Gore's chief adviser on telecommunications issues and he left the White House later in 1993 to become president of the U.S. Telecom Association, where he lobbies on issues relating to telecommunications policy on behalf of the Baby Bells.
Tom Paine.com criticized Neel as part of "Washington's revolving door"But while the vice president's official headquarters is in Nashville, he has not shed his longtime associates, many of whom work as high-priced lobbyists on K Street. They have enjoyed the advantages of the revolving door. They worked with Gore in the White House or on Capitol Hill and are now selling their access, or at least the appearance of that access, to corporate clients. Three of them - Peter Knight, John M. "Jack" Quinn and Roy Neel - are all former Gore chiefs of staff and now are wealthy lobbyists.
6:16 PM
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