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Bush Headed for Big Win?
Steven Antler is right - Donald Luskin does have a great post on Yale economist Ray Fair and his presidential vote equation, which predicts President Bush winning re-election handily if the economy continues its present healthy course. Scott Elliott over at the ElectionProjection.com blog is currently less optimistic.
UPDATE: The Chicago Sun Times reports that Bush is gaining on Kerry in Illinois, despite two months of bad press over Iraq, and now trails Kerry by just five points in a big midwestern state Bush lost to Al Gore in 2000 by 12 points. Illinois has 21 electoral votes.
I wonder if Bush's numbers are going up in Illinois has anything to do with the state's rapidly falling unemployment rate.
UPDATE: Bruce Bartlett cites some other political projections based on economic data.
The Pitts
Forbes examines the myth of Brad Pitt.
Iraq and Oklahoma City
Investigative reporter Jayna Davis' new book, The Third Terrorist, outlining evidence of a connection between Iraq and the 1995 bombing of the Murrah Federal Building in Oklahoma City, is ranked number 309 at Amazon.
It deserves to be on the New York Times hardcover nonfiction bestseller list. For more on Davis' investigation, visit her website.
Yet More WMD in Iraq For The Left To Deny
Sarin nerve gas - a weapon of mass destruction - found in a roadside bomb in Iraq.
UPDATE: The AP reports: "U.S. officials said Monday they are concerned that other sarin-filled munitions may still exist in Iraq and may not be well marked after evidence indicated a roadside shell that exploded contained the nerve agent."
But of course Saddam had no WMD.
The Workerless Recovery
Forget the "jobless recovery" - some industries are faced with a "workerless recovery," leaving them with hundreds or even thousands of job openings they can't fill. The reason: there aren't enough workers with the skills they jobs require, as Nashville Business Journal reporter Philip Nannie reports in a must-read report in this week's edition. Much of the report is based on data from the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, listing the number of expected job openings per year through 2010 for a variety of occupations. The report looks at Middle Tennessee data but I suspect the problem is national in scope, as evidenced by the NBJ story's report that Bridgestone could hire 75,000 service technicians today - and at very good pay - if they could find them.
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Tax Study Report Delay: An Update
As I informed you here on May 13, the Tennessee state House has passed a bill on a vote of 98-0 that, if it passes the Senate this week and gets the governor's signature, will extend the reporting deadline for the Tennessee Tax Structure Study Commission to December 31, moving it past the August primary and November general election. The Tax Structure Study Commission is widely if not universally expected to recommend creation of a state income tax.
Surplus: Another Reporter Gets It Wrong
Tennessee AP reporter Tom Sharp manages to write a whole story about Tennessee's legislature and the state budget without mentioning the state's rapidly growing surplus, expected to top $256 million during the current fiscal year. Amazing.
Even more amazing: The Tennessean, which dutifully reported the state's revenue picture monthly when the numbers seemed to support (or could be spun to support) the push for a state income tax, now ignores them when the state is piling up large surpluses. A search of Google News also finds no mention of it in the Memphis, Knoxville or Chattanooga papers, although the data was released early enough Friday to have been published Saturday, Sunday or today.
Skip Cauthorn at Nashville City Paper does report the surplus - but he gets the numbers wrong. Memo to Skip and the rest of the press corps: When the administration tells you there's a $93 million surplus this year, they are LYING to you. The truth is, the state already has $239.5 million more revenue than it estimated for the first nine months of revenue collection for the current fiscal year - and $239.5 million more than is needed to balance the budget. And Finance & Administration now expects the surplus to reach $256 million this year. The administration has already decided how it wants to spend $163 million of the surplus - leaving $93 million as yet unspoken for - but the administration's plans are not yet set in stone.
Really, people. A part-time blogger can get the data and do the math. So, why is it so hard for full-time paid reporters to read the revenue report and check out the spread sheet, do some basic math, and report the truth? Memo to the Tennessee media, especially the reporters who write about the legislature: F&A; posts the report online every month. So does the Department of Revenue, here. And you can get the spread sheet each month via email from Rick Newton at F&A.; Just send him an email.
And if all that seems to difficult, just check here at HobbsOnline on a regular basis, because I faithfully report the revenue data every month and provide my readers much more comprehensive coverage of Tennessee tax and budget news than Tennessee's news media.
UPDATE: A reader emails me a snippet from reporter Joe White's coverage at The Nashville Bureau, a subscription-only site that offers good coverage of the Tennessee legislature. White says, accurately:
The good news from the Revenue Department was that revenues continued to rise. The bad news was that the legislature wanted to spend it. April revenues came in almost $98 million over budgeted estimates, most of that ($92.4 million) in the general fund.White reports the truth that the rest of the media in Tennessee either are too lazy to discover or - worse - know but won't report because they don't want you to know.For nine months, year-to-date, the state was $239.5 million ahead of the game, with $225.5 million of that in the general fund.
Meanwhile, hats off to the Bredesen administration for artfully spinning a $256 million expected surplus until it looks like only $93 million. You're almost as good at misleading the public as your predecessor.
May 16, 2004
Is Larry Daughtrey's Calculator Broken?
Larry Daughtrey's column in The Tennessean today looks at the growing rift between Tenenssee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, and the Democratic leaders in the legislature, a rift driven by differences over what to do with the state's rapidly growing budget surplus. Daughtrey says the state is accumulating a $93 million surplus this fiscal year.
That's not true.
The state expects the surplus to reach $256 million this year, as I explained here. The $93 million figure simply represents the amount of the surplus that the Bredesen administration has not yet decided how to spend.
Daughtrey ought to know the truth of the $256 million surplus - even though The Tennessean has not reported yet on Friday's revenue report, which showed the surplus rising by nearly $100 million during the month of April.
After all, he has covered the legislature for years, and Finance & Administration Commissioner David Goetz gave the true surplus figures to the Senate Finance Committee two weeks ago. And Friday's revenue report clearly showed the state's surplus was already at $239.5 million, with three months to go in the fiscal year.
The question is, why would Daughtrey use the lower figure if he knows it to be false? The larger question is, why doesn't The Tennessean want its readers to know just how large the state's surplus really is? Are they afraid people might start asking for a reduction in the sales tax?
May 15, 2004
As Surplus Soars, Income Tax Becomes More Likely
Frank Cagle argues - persuasively - that the fiscal policies of the current governor of Tennessee are pushing Tennessee toward adoption of an income tax.
Cagle, one of the most astute political observers in Tennessee, writes in a column in today's Knoxville News Sentinel that the administration and legislature, by rushing to spend the state's $256 million revenue surplus rather than use it to roll back part of the 1-cent sales tax increase passed in 2002, is setting the stage for an income tax the next time a recession causes a slowdown in the growth of tax revenue.
I know that legislators may have amnesia, but do all of us have it as well? During the 1990s, the economy was rocking along at a good clip. Tax collections in Tennessee exceeded inflation and population growth every year. What did we do? We spent it all. Then, when the recession hit and revenue did not increase, what happened? We had a fiscal crisis.Cagle is absolutely right in his analysis, however, his column includes an error that needs to be corrected.So now the economy is rocking along again, tax collections are up, and what are we doing? Are we going to spend it all again? We are not reducing the sales tax. We are not returning money to local governments. So, when the next recession comes along, we will be in a situation where revenues go flat or even decline, and we have a sales tax that is already perilously close to 10 percent.
What do we do then? We will not have reduced the sales tax, giving us a cushion for the next recession. We will have made more financial commitments by state government. We are proceeding down the same road Gov. Don Sundquist took us during the 1990s, only next time it will be worse. The sales tax is about as high as it can go.
... If we keep the sales tax near the max and we continue spending at even higher levels, ask yourself a few questions. Will we ever have another recession? If we do, revenues will decline or flatten. Will the Legislature break the barrier and institute a sales tax of 10 percent or higher? It doesn't seem likely.
What's the alternative? Why, tax reform of course. That would be a state income tax.
Cagle says "Tax collections for this year are expected to be $256 million more than last year."
No. Tax collections this fiscal year are expected to be $256 million more than the amount required to balance this year's budget, an amount that anticipated 4.5 percent revenue growth over the previous fiscal year.
Through nine months of tax collections for this fiscal year, the state has already collected $460 million more in tax revenue than it collected in the first nine months of last year, a growth rate of 7.34 percent. This year's budget was based on an estimate that tax revenue would grow about 4.5 percent.
The state collected $8.46 billion in tax revenue in fiscal year 2002-03. At the current rate of revenue growth so far this fiscal year - 7.34 percent - Tennessee would collect $9.1 billion this year, although the budget is balanced if the state collects just the estimated amount of $8.5 billion. Every dime over the estimate is surplus revenue.
In recent weeks, Tennessee Finance & Administration Commissioner David Goetz estimated the state would collected $256 million in surplus revenue. With the latest revenue data showing the surplus already at $237 million with three months to go, it is likely the surplus will go even higher than the predicted $256 million.
Cagle, or his editor, mangled the numbers a bit, but his basic point is right: The surplus should be used to cut taxes and restore state funds cut from cities and counties last year. Otherwise, the Bredesen administration and the legislature are embarking on the same spend-it-all policies that previous Gov. Don Sundquist followed - policies that lead to a fiscal crises and a four-year political war over the proposed income tax.
May 14, 2004
Tennessee Revenue Surplus Soars in April
NASHVILLE - Tennessee state government's tax revenue surplus grew by nearly $100 million in the month of April, raising the likelihood that the state will amass a surplus even larger than the quarter-billion-dollar surplus state finance officials were predicting only last week. You can read the press release from the Department of Finance & Administration here.
The Department of Revenue collected $1,093.8 million (more than $1 billion) in April, the ninth month of tax collections for the 2003-2004 fiscal year. That's $97.8 million more than the budgeted estimate for the month, pushing the state's revenue surplus to an astounding $239.5 million more than the budgeted estimates.
With three months of revenue still to be collected, the state is well positioned to eclipse the predicted $256 million surplus that F&A; Commissioner David Goetz outlined last week in testimony before the state Senate Finance, Ways & Means Committee. (The administration has already made plans for spending $163 million of the excess tax collections.)
A $300 million revenue surplus is not out of the realm of possibility.
April's astonishing revenue growth was powered in part by strong growth in revenue from the much-maligned sales tax, which provided $28.8 million more revenue than the budgeted estimate in April and, through nine months, is running $117.1 million in surplus.
The fast-rising surplus is sure to give more momentum to those who believe it should be used to restore state-shared funds the Bredesen administration cut from city and county governments last year, causing dozens of cities and counties to raise property taxes. Others are calling for the surplus to be saved in the state's rainy day fund, or used to reduce taxes for Tennessee taxpayers who were hit with a billion-dollar tax increase two years ago.
UPDATE: In the post immediately before this one, I wondered why F&A; had delayed releasing the revenue data this late in the month, and speculated they were holding the data because it was going to show another month of growth in the surplus, and that kind of information might spark taxpayers and lawmakers to push for tax relief or restoring funds cut from subsidies to city and county governments last year (cuts that caused property tax hikes in dozens of cities and counties.)
Reader and Memphis blogger Michael Roy Hollihan emailed to note that the department chose to release the data on a Friday afternoon, which is a traditional day to release information you don't want widely publicized.
"The story will break in papers on Saturday, the least-read day of the week," notes Hollihan. True, and if TV news covered the story, they'd likely have done so on Friday night, the least-watched night of the week for television.
Traditionally, newsmakers release bad news on Fridays, not good news. But in this case, the good fiscal news is bad, politically, for the Bredesen administration, which doesn't want to restore the state-shared funds for cities and counties, and doesn't want to give taxpayers any tax relief. The administration wants to save a bit in the rainy day fund and spend the rest. But the larger the surplus grows, the harder it will be to argue against tax relief and restoring the state-shared funds.
Right about now, I suspect the administration is working very hard to get a budget deal done and get the legislative session over with, before next month's revenue report shows yet another massive surge in the surplus.
Where Is It?
NASHVILLE - Halfway through May - and a week later than usual - the Tennessee Department of Finance & Administration still has not released the monthly tax revenue report for the month of April. Last month, F&A; released the March data on April 8. The month before, F&A; released the February data on March 3.
So why the delay? I don't know - and F&A; spokesperson Lola Potter has not responded to an email inquiring about the April report. But I suspect the department might be withholding the data because it shows yet another increase in the state's rapidly-growing revenue surplus, which F&A; officials already admitted a few weeks ago is likely to reach $256 million this fiscal year.
The use of the surplus is becoming a rather contentious issue at Legislative Plaza, with Gov. Phil Bredesen and his fellow Democrats rushing to spend it, while some Republicans are suggesting it be used to restore state funds to cities and counties that were cut last year, or even that it be used to give taxpayers - hit with a billion-dollar tax increase two years ago - some tax relief.
One imagines that, if the surplus is going to be even larger than the $256 million they now say, the Bredesen administration would prefer that the public and the legislators not know this until the budget is crafted. After all, every additional dollar in surplus is another argument for reducing taxes or restoring those cuts in state funds to cities and counties. But the Bredesen administration doesn't want to cut taxes, and neither does the Tennessee Democratic Party.
If the April revenue report is not released today, I'd bet money it's being delayed for political reasons.
UPDATE: 1:45 p.m. Friday, May 14: I just received the revenue report five minutes ago via email, and will be posting it shortly.
Grumblings
Jackson Baker reports in the Memphis Flyer that some Tennessee Democrats aren't happy with Gov. Phil Bredesen, even though he's one of their own - and has very high public approval ratings. Well, yeah. Bredesen has been governing fiscally via spending cuts and holding the line (mostly) on taxes, rather than the spending increases and tax increases sought by the Tennessee Democratic Party, and his workers comp reform proposal hurts trial lawyers, who are the bedrock of the Democratic Party's fundraising.
Tennessee GOP Has Right Approach on State's Big Surplus
NASHVILLE - Republicans in the Tennessee legislature are moving to restore to city and county governments in the state's next budget the more than $36 million in state-shared funds that the Bredesen administration took from cities and counties in order to balance this year's budget. The Nashville City Paper reports:
With the legislative session in its waning days, state Sen. Ron Ramsey (R-Blountville), the Senate Republican Caucus chairman, plans to present a budget amendment next week that would return the funds to local governments.They are doing the right thing. Bredesen's slashing of state-share funds has forced dozens of cities and counties across Tennessee to raise property taxes.In light of recent news of a state budget surplus of $93 million this fiscal year and roughly $120 next year, Gov. Phil Bredesen recently laid out a laundry list on how to spend the money and lawmakers are lining up with alternative ideas.
"I want to take these over collections and give it back to local governments,” said Ramsey. “Local governments are struggling. We’re sending a terrible message that ‘we’ll make cuts but not return the money when things get better.'"
The City Paper, however, needs to pay attention to HobbsOnline and get its facts straight about this year's state budget surplus. It isn't $93 million. This year, the surplus is expected to reach $256 million.
As I noted here the other day, state tax collectors now expect to collect about $256 million more in tax revenue this fiscal year than was budgeted by the legislature for this fiscal year last May. Bredesen has already proposed plans to spend $163 million of it. Meanwhile, state finance officials have raised their estimate of revenue for the next fiscal year by $120 million since Bredesen released his proposed budget.
By using the $93 million figure, the City Paper and other news organizations are falling for a rhetorical trick. The administration knows the actual revenue surplus is approaching $256 million, but it has already decided how it wants to spend $163 million of that money, so it pretends that revenue is not surplus, and uses the lower figure of $93 million.
You can guess why they are doing it: If the average Tennessee taxpayer knew the real size of the surplus, they'd be clamoring for the legislature to give back part of that billion-dollar tax increase the legislature hit them with two years ago.
UPDATE: East Tennessee's best political commentator, Frank Cagle, emails:
My column tomorrow in the News-Sentinel asks why, with $256 million more in revenue, no one is talking about repealing the last sales tax increase. That crushing regressive monumental mistake editorial writers attacked in 2002. Also, I suggest people ask their legislator why Knoxville and Knox County are raising taxes while Bredesen keeps the state shared sales tax and the state has a surplus. It sounds like Ramsey is about to do something about that.Cagle goes on to say that "if we spend and don't cut the sales tax we go into the next recession in worse shape than last time. We can't raise the sales tax again. If we don't cut it now, we can expect a state income tax come the next recession."
Condi in Nashville
After a mountain of media coverage on a few dozen people upset that National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice was speaking on the campus of Vanderbilt University, her speech draws applause from a crowd of thousands.
May 13, 2004
Cowards
NASHVILLE - The House passed House Bill 3400 yesterday on a vote of 98-0 with one representative present but not voting. The bill would extend the reporting deadline for the Tennessee Tax Structure Study Commission to December 31, moving it past the August primary and November general election. The Tax Structure Study Commission is widely if not universally expected to recommend creation of a state income tax.
The bill next goes before the state Senate Finance, Ways, and Means Committee, where it is on the agenda for the May 17 meeting.
The bill is a transparent attempt to shield legislators from having to deal with the Income Tax Issue during the 2004 campaign. What is not clear is why the Republicans in the state House all voted for the bill.
...read more
It Takes a Church to Raise a Christian
The headline is also the title of a very good book that I've read half of, so far, a book I found via Mark D. Roberts' blog. It Takes a Church to Raise a Christian, subtitled "How the Community of God Transforms Lives," was written by Tod E. Bolsinger, Ph.D., and is based on his doctoral dissertation. It argues powerfully for making church reflect the essence of the trinitarian God, which is three divine beings in a community of love.
Tod was kind enough to send me a free copy after I emailed him about it, and I have enjoyed reading it, and am encouraged by it. Church can be more than a lecture series, or a debating society, or a social club, or a Jesus-themed rock concert. It can be a powerful force for changing lives.
Consider this a teaser. I'll have comments on the book soon after I finish reading it...
U.S. Finds Way to Sao Tome
One of the more interesting and important - and, therefore, less covered by the American media - developments in American foreign policy is the United States' increasingly close relationship with the tiny island nation of Sao Tome & Principe, off the west coast of Africa, south of Nigeria and west of Gabon. Sao Tome is small, pro-American, and is predominantly Christian, unlike Nigeria, which is 50 percent Muslim is increasingly wracked by extremist Muslim violence against Christians.
Oh, and Sao Tome sits atop a whole lot of undeveloped oil.
There are new and interesting developments that you probably missed because the American news media usually doesn't bring you the most important news. Voice of America reports (with links added by me):
The United States is moving quickly to cement its security relations with Sao Tome, where an oil production boom is expected to make the tiny West African island nation strategically important. Defense officials have disclosed that a U.S. military liaison officer was sent to Sao Tome earlier this year on a one-year assignment on behalf of the European Command, which is responsible for most of Africa.I've written about Sao Tome in the past. Here is the list of links:The officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, tell VOA the officer's role is to coordinate and develop security cooperation programs with Sao Tome. The officials indicate those efforts will include not only military education and training for Sao Tomean forces, but also military equipment sales and transfers.
News reports from Sao Tome indicate the sales and transfers under consideration will focus on bolstering the island nation's Coast Guard. The goal is to give Sao Tome the naval means to patrol its exclusive offshore economic zone, as well as the joint development zone it shares in the Gulf of Guinea with Nigeria. Both zones are believed to be rich in oil, and production efforts are already getting under way.
The dispatch of a military liaison officer is noteworthy, as there is no U.S. Embassy in Sao Tome. Diplomatic and other contacts are handled by American officials based in Gabon.
Sao Tome Update - July 25, 2003
Sao Tome Update - July 18, 2003
Sao Tome Update - July 17, 2003
Sao Tome Coup Update - July 17, 2003
A Coup in Africa, and the War on Terror - July 16,2003
This Story Is More Important Than You Might Think- January 02, 2003
A Michael Williams Grab Bag
Michael Williams is one of my favorite bloggers. Today, he is wondering if the large number of American soldiers and civilians current serving or working in Iraq are represented in presidential election opinion polls - and whether, a la Vietnam, we'll be questioning future presidential candidates 30 years hence why they were or weren't in Iraq.
Mike's also responding to a Donald Sensing post about "erotic worship," discussing why he's not a Libertarian, and warning the killers of Nick Berg that, if pushed too hard, America has the ability to turn all of the the terrorists into "greasy vapor." He's also giving out his secret beef stew recipe...
Blogs News Roundup
Here's a roundup of news about blogs and the impact they're having in public relations, journalism, politics and academia.
A Reuters report titled America's Napster Generation Goes To War explores the impact of digital technology on war-related public relations and journalism.
The Napster generation's tech-savvy teens and twentysomethings forced the $30 billion music industry to rethink its business. Now they are making military officials apply their minds to the flow of information from today's front lines that has potentially disastrous consequences for military planners as images whizz home beyond the Pentagon's tight watch. Digital cameras, camcorders and laptop computers are widely seen as basic to the modern U.S. military, as is living on bases with Internet connections.Online Journalism Review has a very interesting article about "how blogs are changing academia, politics and traditional journalis." OJR says "the presence of blogs in the academic environment makes it more likely that they'll survive and thrive in the long term," and goes on to note that, increasingly, university professors aren't just blogging, they are "turning their research lens on Weblogs themselves, whether the context is within schools of law, journalism, communication or library science." OJR presents the results of interviews-via-email of four professors who are researching blogging."It's a fact of life," said Marine Corps General Peter Pace, vice chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff. "People are going to have these things. They're available to everybody."
Many soldiers are free to send home email dispatches or keep Web journals - or "blogs." And as long as they do not communicate their precise location and combat plans to the outside world, today's American soldier can chronicle the daily routine of the front, documenting it for the world to see, one snapshot at a time.
OJR also has a report titled Surf's Down as More Netizens Turn to RSS for Browsing, which reports that:
While most Netizens still surf to Web sites to catch the latest postings, more users have found that to be a laborious, time-consuming way to browse. Instead they are installing "newsreader" software that constantly plucks feeds from Weblogs and news outlets and pulls them together onto a single screen.The article summarizes the various news-reader applications out there. If you use an RSS reader, you can add HobbsOnline to your feed by copy this link to your list of subscriptions.
Meanwhile, Slate looks at "jock blogging," or how a growing number of professional athletes are using blogs to communicate with fans while avoiding the media.
And, finally, PR Newswire's Media Insider has an interesting bit on blogs, PR and "participatory journalism."
Oh... and some company named "Google" has launched a new version of something called "Blogger."
Economy Firing On All Cylinders
I'm a few days late with this, but the Joint Economic Committee of Congress reports the economy is firing on all cylinders. I blame the Bush tax cuts. Full report in PDF file here.
May 12, 2004
In Tennessee, the Income Tax War Goes On
Things are heating up in the race for the Republican nomination for the Tennessee state Senate in the sixth district, where Knoxville lawyer Billy Stokes is facing off against state Rep. Jamie Hagood for the nomination in a district that tilts Republican. Hagood apparently sponsored a "push poll" designed to malign Stokes as a closet supporter of a proposed state income tax. It isn't true, but Hagood is trying to use the fact that Stokes served in the administration of former Gov. Don Sundquist for two years to make voters believe it anyway. Sundquist pushed unsuccessfully for creation of an income tax for nearly four years.
Stokes fired back a few days ago.
For the record, Stokes left the Sundquist administration in February 1997, more than two years before Sundquist broke his solemn oath to oppose a state income tax and proposed one instead. Stokes worked for Sundquist when Sundquist (ostensibly) opposed the income tax.
Hagood, on the other hand, allowed Sundquist to campaign for her during her 1998 and 2000 campaigns for state representative, at a time when Sundquist was actively pushing for creation of a state income tax.
That doesn't mean Hagood supports the income tax. Fact is, she voted against the income tax when it came up for a vote in May 2002. It does mean she ought not to malign her opponent with guilt by association.
Want to support Stokes? Click his ad that's running on the left side of my blog and then click the Donate button, or just click here. I'd like to see about 100 of my Tennessee readers each send him $5 to $50.
UPDATE: A reader writes and says the poll I described as a "push poll" was in fact a legitimate poll, and referred me to the article, which I already linked to above, by News-Sentinel columnist Georgianna Vines.
The reader also pointed out that, in 1998, Sundquist was campaigning for re-election and speaking out against the income tax, and many anti-income tax Republicans running for seats in the legislature "wanted fundraisers and photos w/ Sundquist in '98." The reader also says he doesn't remember Sundquist campaigning for Hagood in 2000.
Points well taken. On the other hand, Stokes left the Sundquist administration in early 1997, well before Sundquist revealed his true colors on the income tax issue.
I guess I didn't make my point very well at all. I was trying to be nice. My point isn't to figure out which of the candidates is the most anti-income tax. It was to point out that, although the income tax was defeated, Republicans are still fighting with each other over it, and in this race it is Rep. Hagood who has decided to use the issue as an attack tool.
That's a shame, because there are other issues to be discussed. While Hagood - who wasn't a leader of the opposition battling against the tax in 1999-2002 - is reaching to the past to find something to use against Stokes, the legislature just passed a $75 million tax increase on Tennessee business. And the legislature is moving to increase spending this fiscal year by $105.1 million over the spending-growth cap in the state constitution. And I have seen no indication that Hagood worked very hard to stop either of them. I've heard no statements from the Stokes camp either, but Hagood is already a legislator and in position to fight higher taxes and excessive spending. Has she on these issues?
Memo to both candidates: Stop fighting the last war.
Kerry Skips Chance to Help Unemployed
John Kerry missed a chance to help the unemployed yesterday while campaigning in Kentucky on economic issues. Had he been in Washington, Sen. Kerry could have voted to on legislation to extend unemployment benefits for the long-term jobless. But he didn't. Because he wasn't there. And it failed by one vote. John Kerry's vote. He was the only senator to miss the vote. And it wasn't a surprise vote, it was a scheduled vote.
You don't think maybe John Kerry would rather just talk about helping the unemployed, do you?
Kerry: "I was for helping the unemployed, before I was against it."
Boosting the Recovery
Jeff Cornwall examines the burgeoning array of academic programs and community support services that are helping to foster the current entrepreneur-driven economic recovery.
A Report From the Front
Add Amy Ridenour's blog over at the website of the National Center for Public Policy Research to your must-read list. And as a way of getting introduced to the blog, read the full text of an email from an NCPR adjunct fellow, Joe Roche, who is currently involved in the battle against the militia of would-be tyrant Muqtada al-Sadr in Iraq.
Cheer up. We're winning the War on Terror.
Promise Broken: Bredesen to Raise Taxes
NASHVILLE - Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen is expected to sign legislation passed yesterday by the state Senate on a 26-4 vote that increases taxes on Tennessee businesses this year by $75 million. The legislation was passed despite promises from Bredesen and Democratic legislative leaders to balance this year's budget without a tax increase. The tax increase is retroactive to July 15, 2002, despite a ban in the state constitution on the legislature passing retroactive laws.
There has been no major media coverage of this tax increase legislation from proposal through passage, and no major media mention of Bredesen breaking his promise to balance this year's budget without increasing taxes.
UPDATE: My mistake. The Knoxville News Sentinel had a story by Tom Humphrey on May 6.
UPDATE: The NFIB's Tennessee director, Rob Ikard, has written a very good article on the tax-increase, which the administration asserts is not actually a tax increase (even though it will increase state revenues from the excise tax by $75 million).
Promise Kept: Bredesen Reforms TennCare
NASHVILLE - Tennessee's previous governor said TennCare, the state's version of Medicaid, wasn't the cause of the state's budget problems and, anyway, it had been reformed all it could be reformed. Tennessee's current governor said it was and said it could. Yesterday, Gov. Phil Bredesen signed TennCare reform into law, saving the state billions.
May 11, 2004
Abu Ghraib 2
Let's be honest. The Left, which didn't care that hundreds of thousands of Iraqis were being tortured and murdered by Saddam Hussein, is only professing outrage about the events at the Abu Ghraib Prison because it's a chance to undermine the Bush administration and the War on Terror.
The American soldiers who abused the Iraqis deserve punishment - their actions can not be tolerated. But to hear the Left's "outrage" over the abuse of a few Iraqi prisoners of war is just sickening. They'd have been happy to leave 24 million Iraqis under the boot heel of a murderous thug who ran a regime of rape rooms and mass murder, of feeding dissidents into shredding machines, of draining the wetlands to kill of a tribe that lived there, of gassing civilians, of starving the citizenry while diverting billions in oil revenue to his own ends and to the bribing of foreign officials, and of burying dead women and children in mass graves.
It took around 200,000 brave and heroic American soldiers to end that awful regime and wake Iraq from its 30-year nightmare. A tiny fraction of the 200,000 have done some awful things, and they rightly will be punished for it. But they and their actions are an aberration. Don't ever forget that. Don't ever forget that America liberated 24 million Iraqis.
Tennessee Legislature Prepares to Exceed Spending Cap
NASHVILLE - Legislation that would enable the state of Tennessee to exceed its constitutional cap on the growth of state spending by $105.1 million this fiscal year was on the agenda today in the state legislature's House and Senate finance committees. You can track the progress of Senate Bill 3456 and House Bill 3549 here. Meanwhile, a placeholder bill that allows the state to exceed the constitutional cap next fiscal year also was on the agenda today of both committees. You can track SB 3433 and HB 3548 here
You can read all about the legislation, and why it makes a tax increase more likely in the future for Tennessee residents - and makes passing the proposed Taxpayers Bill of Rights more necessary than ever - by visiting my Tennessee Budget & Tax Policy archives and Taxpayers Bill of Rights archives.
Reporting From Rio...
A group of students, faculty and staff from Belmont University, where I work in PR and encourage blogging, is going to blog their 10-day mission trip to Brazil, including posting text, images and video via Flash at The Rio Journal.
Help!
I am getting a strange "comment submission error" when I try to post comments to my own blog. It says:
In an effort to curb malicious comment posting by abusive users, I've enabled a feature that requires a weblog commenter to wait a short amount of time before being able to post again. Please try to post your comment again in a short while. Thanks for your patience.Problem: I enabled no such feature and, in fact, can not find anywhere on my MovableType application a way to enable or disable such a feature.
Anyone out there that can help me?
Condi Rice at Vanderbilt
Controversy in Nashville over Vanderbilt University's plans to award a "distinguished public service" medal to National Security Adviser Condoleeza Rice, who will speak to seniors on the Vanderbilt campus on Thursday, the day before graduation.
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