May 20, 2004
A new
strategy memo from James Carville and Stan Greenberg says "the race for president has entered a new and distinct phase with Bush not only endangered... but now with the odds against him. He is more likely to lose than win. Public confidence has collapsed on Iraq, but there is a lot of collateral damage, producing a strong desire for change. Whether it is the vote or job approval or personal favorability, Bush has become a 47 percent president at best. In almost every area, he is being dragged down by even stronger negative trends. Put simply by the voters themselves: just 42 percent want the country to continue in Bush’s direction.
"In this new phase, the whole framework for the election now re-enforces Bush’s marginality. Big forces are at work, undercutting Bush’s case for progress and point of view on the economy, budget priorities, foreign policy and national security. As a result, Bush wins the argument in no area in this survey, putting the election on the Democrats’ terrain."
"The office of straight-laced Ohio Sen. Mike DeWine (R) became the epicenter of salacious Capitol Hill gossip Wednesday, when it surfaced that an entry-level DeWine staffer apparently had been chronicling her steamy sex life on an Internet weblog," the
Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
"The blog was removed from public view after another Washington blog, known as Wonkette.com,
linked to some of the racier passages from the DeWine employee's online diary. The passages detailed the woman's affairs with several men, purporting to include a married (but unnamed) chief-of-staff in a federal agency, and discussed being paid for sex."
Roll Call notes the blog, Washingtonienne, "was full of ribald and hilarious comments about life on Capitol Hill before it was cut off. In complaining about her low salary, and her wonderment at how other junior staffers could get by on such a pittance without resorting to less savory means to supplement their incomes, Washingtonienne wrote: 'I am convinced that Congressional offices are full of dealers and hos.'"
Update: A
replica of the now defunct Washingtonienne blog has been reproduced from the Google cache.
Update II: Guess who bought the
washingtonienne.com domain name?
In the North Carolina Senate race, a new Mason-Dixon North Carolina Poll shows Erskine Bowles (D) leading Rep. Richard Burr (R-NC) 45% to 35% with 20% still undecided. The margin of error is +/- 4%.
Bob Novak says President Bush is in trouble with his conservative base. "The conventional wisdom portrays the latest Zogby Poll's 81 percent of Republican voters committed to Bush as reflecting extraordinary loyalty to the president by the GOP base. Actually, when nearly one out of five Republicans cannot flatly say they support Bush, that could spell defeat in a closely contested election."
"What most bothers... conservatives is steady growth of government under this Republican president" and they feel "betrayed that Bush has outstripped his liberal predecessors in domestic spending."
President Bush and Sen. John Kerry "remain tied among likely voters in Florida," according to a new
American Research Group poll. Bush gets 47%, Kerry 46% and Ralph Nader 3% with just 4% undecided.
"In a ballot question without Nader, 47% of likely voters say they would vote for Bush and 47% say they would vote for Kerry, with 6% of likely voters undecided."
Crossfire host Tucker Carlson told
The Hill that his new PBS show,
Tucker Carlson: Unfiltered, "is going to be much less political with no partisanship — absolutely none — allowed."
As we
noted earlier, the Iraqi prison scandal is nowhere near from being over. The
Denver Post obtained new documents that show "brutal interrogation techniques by U.S. military personnel are being investigated in connection with the deaths of at least five Iraqi prisoners in war-zone detention camps."
Meanwhile, the
Financial Times has this disturbing news: "An Iraqi poll to be released next week shows a surge in the popularity of Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical young Shia cleric fighting coalition forces, and suggests nearly nine out of 10 Iraqis see US troops as occupiers and not liberators or peacekeepers."
Former Rep. John Thune (R), who is currently running
neck-and-neck in South Dakota's Senate race against Sen. Tom Daschle (D) "reported lobbying" his ex-colleagues "on Medicare last year, behavior that would have violated laws restricting the activities of former members of Congress," the
Boston Globe reports.
"Thune campaign manager Dick Wadhams denied that the South Dakota Republican lobbied the House in 2003 and said the forms that Thune's firm filed were misleading."
For more on this race, see the new
Daschle v. Thune blog on "the Biggest Senate Race in the USA."
Update: A
Political Wire reader notes the Daschle v. Thune blog noted above is run by
Jon Lauck, also the head of "Lawyers for Thune."
An
Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll looked at Southerners' voting intentions and found that, if the election were held today, President Bush would beat Sen. John Kerry by 15 points, 52% to 37%.
"While Americans have been rocked by the Iraq prisoner abuse scandal, terrorists' videotaped beheading of a U.S. citizen, and continued bombings and American casualties, by almost every measure Southerners tend to be more supportive of Bush's policies and choices and more optimistic than the rest of the nation."
Sen. John Kerry "met privately yesterday with independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader, who many Democrats believe cost Vice President Al Gore the White House in 2000, but the private session left the two in disagreement over the best way to defeat President Bush in November and with Nader saying he has no intention of quitting the race," the
Washington Post reports.
The
New York Times was more optimistic for Democrats, saying Kerry "began a forceful but delicate effort on Wednesday to win over" Nader. "Kerry's wooing did seem to be having the desired effect already. In an interview immediately after... Mr. Nader called Mr. Kerry 'very presidential.'"
New York Times columnist Maureen Dowd is publishing her first book, according to a
press release.
Bushworld: Enter at Your Own Risk, a collection of her columns, "is a powerful look at the current administration... Its release is timed to coincide with the upcoming Democratic and Republican conventions and the home stretch of the run for the Oval Office."
Connecticut Gov. John Rowland (R), "facing a criminal investigation and possible impeachment, has been replaced as chairman of President Bush's re-election campaign in Connecticut -- a personal and political setback for the longtime friend of the Bush family," the
Hartford Courant reports.
"The governor also has relinquished his traditional role as head of the state delegation to the Republican National Convention this summer, and will not even participate as a delegate."
May 19, 2004
Sen. Tom Daschle's (D-SD) lead over John Thune (R) "has dropped from seven points in February to what may be a statistical dead heat," according to the latest
Argus Leader/KELO-TV poll.
"Daschle, a three-term incumbent and leader of Democrats in the U.S. Senate, holds a 49-47 edge over former three-term Congressman Thune, the poll."
The most striking finding: "Only 4 percent of those contacted said they were undecided in a race that is sure to draw at least as much national attention as Thune's 524-vote loss to Democrat Sen. Tim Johnson did two years ago."
Sen. John Kerry "has a narrow" 46% to 43% lead over President Bush in New Jersey, according to a new
Quinnipiac University poll. Ralph Nader gets 5%.
Said pollster Clay Richards: "Despite all the bad news out of Iraq, President Bush is threatening to make a horse race out of New Jersey, a state everyone had put in the 'safe' column for John Kerry. Actually it's not a case of the President doing so well in New Jersey -- his approval rating remains in negative territory -- but John Kerry is just not catching on."
Sen. John Kerry's campaign
site attracted more visitors than the Bush Cheney '04
site during the month of April, according to a new
Nielsen//NetRatings survey.
In addition, Kerry’s online advertising campaign registered 52 million online advertising impressions and has grown steadily since the beginning of the year. Kerry’s campaign also "incorporated rich media in its online advertising with 30 percent of all John Kerry for President ads utilizing the format."
In comparison, Bush-Cheney '04 "recorded just five thousand online advertising impressions in April 2004, down from a three month high of 28,000 online ads in March."
"President Bush’s plan to make national-security adviser Condoleezza Rice the first female African-American Secretary of State is dead," the
Washingtonian reports.
"Republican congressional sources say Rice’s resistance to testifying in public before the September 11 commission—even then doing it so effectively—has made the onetime wonder girl too controversial politically to ever get past a Senate confirmation hearing."
"A former Stanford provost, Rice has been telling pals that she’s returning to California even if Bush is reelected."
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No real surprise here, but the latest
Texas Poll has President Bush with a huge lead over Sen. John Kerry, 58% to 29%.
"Attention, Washington authors: Don’t rely on your publisher to promote your book, unless you’re Bob Woodward or Bill and Hillary Clinton. If you really want to sell your book, do it yourself,"
The Hill advises.
Apparently, that’s what Michael Barone "learned with his new book,
Hard America Soft America: Competition vs. Coddling and the Battle for the Nation’s Future."
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Sen. Bob Graham (D-FL) "has provided personal information for John Kerry's vice presidential search in recent weeks as part of a potential vetting process," the
St. Petersburg Times reports.
"It's a sign that Florida's retiring senior senator remains in the mix in Kerry's secretive search for a running mate. But there are few outward indications that the review has progressed very far, and it's not clear whether Graham is a top contender."
President Bush "has prided himself on a decisive management style, but the unfolding Iraqi prisoner-abuse scandal has raised questions about whether he relies too much on like-minded advisers, too readily equates dissent with disloyalty, and is too averse to admitting mistakes," the
Wall Street Journal reports.
"There is little debate at cabinet meetings or other private councils, which mainly serve as forums that let Mr. Bush restate his goals and hear each official's report, according to past participants. Leaks and public disagreements aren't tolerated. His circle of advisers is small, and he isn't a 'walk around' manager who tries to canvass opinions from a variety of officials."
"A charitable organization closely tied to House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) announced yesterday that it has canceled a series of parties and other events it had scheduled around the Republican National Convention, after it drew sharp criticism from public watchdog groups," the
Washington Post reports.
May 18, 2004
KTUU-TV reports on "a severe hit" to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-AK) Senate campaign. Lt. Gov. Loren Leman (R), who serves under the Senator's father, Gov. Frank Murkowski (R), "today announced his endorsement of U.S. Senate candidate Mike Miller" in the
GOP primary.
President Bush leads Sen. John Kerry in North Carolina, but according to a
WRAL/Mason-Dixon Poll, "if Kerry chooses Sen. John Edwards as his running-mate, the race in the state currently becomes a dead-heat."
"Statewide, Bush is supported by 48% of voters, while Kerry is backed by 41%, independent Ralph Nader draws 3% and 8% remain undecided. With Edwards as Kerry's running-mate, the GOP ticket of Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney is favored by 46%, the Kerry/Edwards Democratic ticket gets 45%, Nader draws 2% and 7% are undecided."
Connecticut Gov. John Rowland (R) "will be subpoenaed to testify before the legislative committee investigating whether he should be impeached," the
AP reports.
In the
Hartford Courant, James O'Neill chronicles the rise and fall of Rowland.
David Brock's new book,
The Republican Noise Machine, is out today. A
Publisher's Weekly review says "Brock mounts a less gossipy and more systematic assault on the right-wing media juggernaut of think tanks, publishers, talk radio shows, Web sites and cable networks. He treats it as a disciplined political movement, inspired by Communist subversion techniques, bankrolled by a handful of right-wing zillionaires through corporate and foundation spigots, tightly yoked to the Republican policy agenda and masterminded by arch-conservative Grover Norquist at weekly strategy meetings."
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In case you were wondering, the presidential primaries are not over yet. The
Oregonian and notes that while Sen. John Kerry is expected to win the Democratic nomination, he "still had to worry about today's Oregon primary. Although his aides are confident Kerry will win handily, his last remaining mainstream Democratic rival, Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich, has put all of his energies into Oregon and has campaigned here for a full month."
Jerome Armstrong has a report from Oregon.
Update: The
Oregonian says Kerry beat Kucinich 80% to 16%.
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UPI has bad news for Bush adminstration officials who have tried "to contain the Iraq prison torture scandal and limit the blame to a handful of enlisted soldiers and immediate senior officers." They have failed: "The scandal continues to metastasize by the day."
For Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld "and his coterie of neo-conservative true believers," the news is even worse. "Three major institutions in the Washington power structure have decided that after almost a full presidential term of being treated with contempt and abuse by them, it's payback time."
Fred Kaplan also sounds the alarms: "The White House is about to get hit by the biggest tsunami since the Iran-Contra affair, maybe since Watergate."
"If today's investigative shockers -- Seymour Hersh's latest article in the
New Yorker and a three-part piece in
Newsweek -- are true, it's hard to avoid concluding that responsibility for the Abu Ghraib atrocities goes straight to the top, both in the Pentagon and the White House, and that varying degrees of blame can be ascribed to officials up and down the chain of command."
"Republican Larry Diedrich is running neck and neck with Stephanie Herseth, his Democratic rival in South Dakota’s upcoming special House election, an independent poll to be released tonight shows,"
The Hill reports.
"The poll gives Herseth 47 percent, compared to Diedrich’s 44 percent, marking a huge gain for the Republican. Earlier this year, Diedrich trailed Herseth by nearly 30 points."
