Here is a graph (pop-up)of Gold prices (the PM, not AM London Fix - oops) alongside the values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).
What the gold bugs (most prominently Jude Wanniski and Jack Kemp) haven't answered is just how gold is the best measure of economic value. It has no statistical relation to an industrial or consumer basket of goods (PPI and CPI). For you numerate types, the R-squared of the CPI and gold series in the graph is 0.54, well below the 0.75 that might suggest a relationship. The picture indicates as much.
If gold is to be our anchor, we need to know why our gold reserves should determine the amount and value of dollars in circulation. We can't just embrace some religious concept of its price as the true measure of economic value. And if it's not the measure of economic value but the discipline of a gold standard that's important, why choose a commodity whose supply is under the control of others?
If I lose my neo-con ID card over this I'll just have to live with that!
Posted by Mindles H. Dreck at January 14, 2002 07:55 PM | Technorati inbound links
The way the gold standard worked from 1793 to 1971 didn't depend on the gold reserves. If the government printed one dollar more than was needed in the banking system, at the end of the day, the holder of that dollar could come to the gold window and demand gold. This was a signal to the government that it was printing too much money.
If the economy demanded dollars and the government failed to provide them, then at the end of the day, the banks would come to the government with gold and demand dollars. This way the government was signalled to print more money.
Using these signals provided the government with a way to automatically inject the desired amount of dollars into the economy. That's the real value of the gold standard. If the government obeys the signals, then there is no need for people to come to the Fed and get gold, because they can't really use it to buy anything. The fixed gold price acts as a measure, a unit of account, not a store of value.
Butwhat if the supply or demand for gold changes radically? Won't that cause a change in the price level? What if Russia decides to mine a lot more gold? Those are good questions for another time.
The CPI: Gold predicted the Japanese deflation eight years ahead of Japan's CPI. Eight years of people sitting there scratching their heads, what's wrong with Japan?
Posted by: Eric Mauro on January 14, 2002 03:39 PMThe reason for gold as money is very simple. Money of many kinds has been used at one time or another. But, over the long run, gold is the money that the market has chosen. Given freedom, people will likely choose gold again.
Of course, that is not proven. The only way to find out what money a free people really would pick, is to free them and let the market work. Perhaps our modern economies would create some money other than gold. I tend to doubt that, myself.
Posted by: Leonard Dickens on June 17, 2002 03:26 PMAndreas: I will address some of your points in a future post - I like your 'dicipline' point. But I had for myself a side question: "Of what use is the 9000 metric tons of gold bullion bars sitting in the vault of the FRBNY?"
Posted by: Black Leprecon on July 13, 2002 12:52 AMI'm surprised that no one has mentioned this yet, but it's the fact that others also hold the commodity that imposes the discipline. And the discipline is imposed on the government, not the actors in the economy. If there were a gold standard, they would be free to choose the bullion or the currency. Given the weight of the bullion, if the government adheres to the discipline, the actors will choose the currency just as they now are choosing electronic transfer and eliminating currency from most transactions.
Posted by: Mike Huck on October 24, 2002 04:08 AMComments are Closed.