Polipundit remarks that Bush ads are all over TV in Washington State, and that you "can't miss them.."
As a matter of fact, here in Illinois, I'm sure the TV and radio ads have kicked off with just as much vigor, yet I cannot tell if my statement is mere supposition or not. Yes, there are signs on street medians, often of indeterminate political ownership. Some hastily plugged into the hard spring ground, now bending haplessly in the wind, "..elect Rep. XYZ, or the world will end.." , a kind of signage clutter that is a harbinger of the tussles that lie ahead. Yet, I have no idea what Bush ads are playing, and whether the Kerry counter-ads have taken off or not. I have seen few, if any political ads on TV.
All because of my satellite dish and PVR..
One of the great features of a digital PVR (personal video recorder to all you primitives..) or its sibling TiVo, is the ability to skip forward one to three minutes into recorded programs. We pre-record all the shows we want to watch each season, and rarely watch live TV anymore. We skip over every advertising segment, the only ads that ever flit across my conscious mind are the ones right after, or right before a show segment.. fleeting, broken-up, out-of-context pleas for attention. I suffer to sit through some of them on miscalculating the number of skips I need to get to the scene when that glowy-eyed alien gets his personal force-field ripped out of his wringing hands, by some intrepid, busty, blonde bombshell astrophysicist/test pilot/killer commando.(ahem). Even shows we do not pre-record, we usually pause the "live-TV", go about our business, and start watching 15 minutes or so into the show. For the express purpose of getting through advertisements..
Either way, I view fewer ads, which translates to even fewer political ads. (I also watch less overall TV as a result, but that is the subject of another post).
What does this have to do with the election.. well, for a political junkie like myself, relatively little, since I deliberately immerse myself in a variety of news aggregators, as well as blogs both left, right and center-ish. But for the vast majority of non-political, TV-watching, thankful-for-the-PVR American families, it means that political advertising is simply going to be less effective at reaching out to them. They aren't watching as much advertising as they used to have to.. as a Tivo turncoat admits
So what's a money-conscious campaign to do..? I would target shows that people still watch in real-time. Like news, or sports. Maybe even the weather channel. Right before that "local on the 8's" segment. Pay the premiums for ads that start right before a show, or right before the cliffhanger five minutes before the end. Either way, the pickings are slim, and getting slimmer by the day than an anorexic, vegan teen on Atkins..
For the lifespan of this years electoral battles, the PVR phenomenon is unlikely to have a significant effect on political advertising and campaign strategy, as less than 1% of Americans currently own one. Yet, PVR ownership is predicted to rise to 20% by 2007. Swing voters, who by virtue of unscientific speculation, are most likely to be the kind of relatively affluent, middle-class voters who own PVRs, will be harder to reach using traditional media. Perhaps targeted BlogAds would fill that niche better.. If so, blogs with a large eyeball audience (like Instapundit), would be a perfect target for a future Karl Rove, looking to sway votes, one page view at a time...
Conversely, if seeking the independant vote becomes harder, both parties might simply abandon the effort, and seek instead to increase their partisan base, spend more millions on get-out-the-vote drives, and rely more on their local affiliates to push people to the polls. A sign of a permanent and growing divisiveness in politics, with the center increasingly isolated from much of the political process..? Hard to tell..
UPDATE: Perhaps people with PVRs will just start tuning out of much of the election process. Perhaps its a good thing. Less partisan rhetoric could lead to people voting on issues without getting sidetracked by personality clashes, and vendetta-based political mud-slinging.