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June 8th Primary Results
by Jerome Armstrong
- The South Carolina results are here. Early returns show Republicans David Beasley in the lead. He's favored, and will likely be in a runoff against either of Charlie Condon, Jim DeMint, or Thomas Ravenel. The winner will face Democratic candidate Inez Tenenbaum, considered a toss-up.
- Looks like Jim Moran has won re-election to the House. He'll have to face a Republican named Cheney in the General, but he's cruising by about a 60% to 40% margin against Andy Rosenberg in the VA 8th primary. I'll post any further updates on the campaign's website.
House 2004 :: Tue Jun 8th, 2004 at 08:14:03 PM EST :: Post a Comment (2 comments)
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POLL--What is the Biggest Lie About Reagan?
by Chris Bowers
Which of the many lies being spun about Reagan this week is the biggest? It is hard to choose, so consider all the possibilities before selecting one. I have provided an article that works to debunk each myth.
Lies all. But which lie is the most extreme? Take the poll.
Republicans :: Tue Jun 8th, 2004 at 01:23:40 PM EST :: Post a Comment (7 comments)
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Movie Trailer: "The Corporation"
by Chris Bowers
When I was in Chicago, I had the fortune of viewing The Corporation for free. It does not have the wide release of "Fahrenheit 911," but if you have an opportunity to see it, please check it out. It is a truly remarkable piece of agitation.
Considering Michael Moore, "Super Size Me," and this film, the left wing, populist cinematic documentary appears to be an up and coming genre.
UPDATE (Jerome): Also, this trailer is making its rounds on the internet, from Hijacking Catastrophe, 9/11, Fear & the Selling of American Empire. You can view the trailer for free, or find it and other documentary films on MEF.tv
Media :: Tue Jun 8th, 2004 at 12:34:50 PM EST :: Post a Comment (5 comments)
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Support Tom Daschle in 2004
by Jerome Armstrong
As most of the readers here know, I think Tom Daschle is up against the toughest of all odds in the US Senate of all the incumbents, so show your support by visiting his website, signing up for their email newsletter to follow the campaign, or make a contribution. Instead of my making the case, let me share from the back and forth I had with one of the staffers from Tom Daschle's campaign, who can state the urgency of Daschle's case better than I can:
The challenger/open seat races in place like CO, AK, and elsewhere are huge and exciting and deserving of all of our attention and support - but there's only one incumbent Dem Senator who's facing a challenge of this magnitude this cycle. And if we lose Daschle, we not only lose the Senate leader, but we lose any chance of winning back the Senate.
There can be little doubt the kinds of things we saw in '02 (against Cleland et al) will happen here this time. The 3rd party negative ads started back in April, and this race really began more than a year ago before we even had a opponent. Polls have shown a range, but it's South Dakota - with Johnson's 528 vote win in '02, and Stephanie Herseth's squeaker just last week, close elections are the norm here. Especially with a candidate like John Thune, who's making his second go at it, with all the resources of the national GOP, as well as a tradition of voter suppression on the Indian reservations.
And that last point should be stressed, as Nick Confessore posted on TAPPED the other day, following last week's special election in SD: UH, INDIANS ARE ALLOWED TO VOTE, TOO. A couple of months ago, there was some rightfully ticked-off chatter in the blogosphere regarding the stupid and quasi-racist notion that, quote, if it weren't for the black vote, the Democrats would be nowhere. (The clearest example of this came a couple of years ago from CNN analyst Bill Schneider, who explained on-air that Democrats were so "dependent" on the black vote that without them, the 1992 and 1996 elections would have been nail-biters and George W. Bush would have won an overwhelming electoral victory over Al Gore.) Josh Marshall nicely paraphrased this as the equivalent of saying "the Dems are just hopelessly sucking wind among real voters and thus have to resort to padding their totals with blacks." It's a dumb thought experiment in the sense that, of course if you strip either party of a big voting constituency, they would be less competitive. And it's quasi-racist in the implication that African-Americans somehow don't or shouldn't count.
Something similarly offensive is going on when Rep. Tom Davis, (R-Va.), the former National Republican Campaign Committee Chairman, says of Stephanie Herseth's narrow win in South Dakota, "If you take out the Indian reservation, we would have won."
One can't help but wonder if this is exactly what the GOP intends to do for November's rematch. After all, it was just two years ago that Republican operatives --- abetted by their media shills -- tried to suppress the reservation vote with scurrilous and malicious charges of widespread voter fraud. (For background, see here, here, here, and here.) Somehow, I think we'll be seeing more of that this fall.
--Nick Confessore
Senate 2004 :: Mon Jun 7th, 2004 at 09:12:53 PM EST :: Post a Comment (4 comments)
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Canda's upcoming National Election
by Jerome Armstrong
A new Ipsos-Reid/CTV/Globe and Mail poll projects the following the upcoming elections in Canada are a virtual tile between the Liberals (32%) and the Conservatives (31%):
Seat Projection Model Suggests:
Liberals 115-119
Conservatives 110-114
NDP 17-21
Bloc Quebecois 56-60
Green 0-2
The Liberals are down 2% since their last polling, and at their lowest polling since 1991, the Conservatives are up 1% and have momentum, 11% are undecided. The election is June 28th.
The results from another recent poll of percentages:
A poll last week, with the largest sample of B.C. voters to date, put the Conservatives at 32 per cent, the Liberals at 29 and the NDP at 28 per cent. The fledgling Green Party had 9 per cent.
With approximately 50 per cent saying they may still change their minds, experts expect a bruising, no-holds barred campaign until voting day.
The closeness of the race has all four parties, even the Greens, predicting breakthroughs.
But Conservative John Reynolds, with nearly 30 years in provincial and federal politics under his belt, cautions that "the real action is gonna take place" after the national leader debates next week.
Foreign Elections :: Mon Jun 7th, 2004 at 02:35:30 PM EST :: Post a Comment (6 comments)
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The two Senate picks
by Jerome Armstrong
That's in the DSCC's Ann Lewis, in her weekly e-mail rant. Markos, with no luck, ties to keep the voting under control... but like MoveOn's 2003 Presidential primary vote there is no control, only more voting.
I'll vote for Nancy Farmer and Tony Knowles, you too?
Senate 2004 :: Mon Jun 7th, 2004 at 10:55:52 AM EST :: Post a Comment (7 comments)
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Virginia, Arizona House 2004
by Jerome Armstrong
Virginia and Arizona. Battleground states for the Presidency in 2004; and yet, as of a week ago, at least 6 of their congressional district Republican incumbents remain without a Democratic candidate to oppose them. What's that mean? The states lose out on potential candidacies who will bring voters to the polls at the CD level, and those 6 Republicans will be free to raise funds for their Republican friends in tough contests across the nation.
- The Virginia filing deadline is June 8th.
Virginia Democrats have hopefully found someone to run in the 1st, 4th, and 6th and 11th CD's. Virginia certainly has the potential of becoming a battleground state, and every vote counts. Republican's Tom Davis in the 11th, Bob Goodlatte in the 6th, Randy Forbes in the 4th, and Jo Ann Davis in the 1st.
- The Arizona filing deadline for Arizona is June 9th.
Arizona Democrats, still need to find someone to run in the 3rd and 6th CD's. John Shaddegg is the Republican incumbent in the 3rd CD, and Jeff Flake is the Republican incumbent in AZ 6th. Neither of them are anything more than DeLay vote-alongs. Both of these districts are going to be competitive between Kerry and Bush. The 3rd CD extends north from Phoenix beyond the suburbs along Highway 17; and the 6th extends east of Phoenix, taking in Mesa and Chandler.
That's 6 seats. I know that the Democrats in Virginia had a state Democratic Party meeting over the weekend, and perhaps have found candidates to run as Democrats against the incumbents. As for Arizona, I don't know. Regardless, here's an opportunity for those of you in these Republican CD's to take some action. Find out if anyone has registered to run yet; if not, find someone that's credible to run. It might even be you.
House 2004 :: Sun Jun 6th, 2004 at 09:22:21 PM EST :: Post a Comment (3 comments)
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The War Against Freedom
by Chris Bowers
When stories of Reagan's legacy are told over the next week, his affirmation of lightly regulated capitalism and his contribution toward "ending the cold war" will probably be the most common angles taken. Combined, these two narratives will paint Reagan as a great warrior for liberty in the face of tyranny both at home and abroad. However, under Reagan's still pervasive influence, in at least two important aspect the United States has sharply turned away from its long history of slowly increasing personal freedom (Warning: PDF file):
The Bureau of Justice Statistics recently reported that there are now two million people in the nation's prisons and jails. This figure is a record high and represents the product of an unprecedented 30-year rise in the use of incarceration. The national inmate population is now six times that of the approximately 330,000 total of 1972, just prior to the inception of the modern day "get tough" movement....
The absolute figures are dramatic in themselves, but take on even greater significance in comparison with other nations. In this regard, the U.S. rate of incarceration of 702 inmates per 100,000 population represents not only a record high, but situates this nation as the world leader in its use of imprisonment....
Criminologists Alfred Blumstein and Allen Beck examined the near-tripling of the prison population during the period of 1980-1996 and concluded that changes in crime explained only 12% of the prison rise, while changes in sentencing policy accounted for 88% of the increase....
Over the past two decades, the most significant change in the composition of the U.S. prison population has been the dramatic increase in the number of persons incarcerated for a drug offense. In 1980, prisons and jails held about 40,000 inmates for drug offenses. That figure has increased more than ten-fold to about 450,000 today, nearly a quarter of all inmates.
Surprisingly, when Regan was Governor of California, the state prison population did not significantly increase. However, as President, by declaring the "war on drugs" and escalating "get tough" policies to new levels, the national prison population exploded (as did the government bureaucracy to support and administer the prison system). Since none of the three administrations to follow Reagan's seriously challenged the highly punitive policies he put into place, the prison population in the United States has never stopped escalating. Now, America has become the most imprisonment happy country on the planet. Our rate of incarceration per 100,000 population (702) surpasses that of Russia (628), South Africa (400), England / Wales (139, the highest in Western Europe), and Japan (53). Our total prison population of over two million people is easily the highest on Earth. Further, 25% of all inmates are imprisoned for crimes they committed against their own bodies: non-violent drug-offenses. This had led to, among other things, 13% voter disenfranchisement among African-American males.
As we all know, Reagan's wars did not stop at out own borders. Many of the governments and rebels his administration provided aid to, including Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq (during its war with Iran) and the precursors of the Taliban, the Mujahadeen in Afghanistan (during the Soviet invasion of that country), may have been anti-Communist, but were certainly not freedom loving. Now, of course, we are occupying both countries ostensibly in order to free their populations from the terroristic tyranny of our former allies in the War on Communism. One can only imagine what other countries we will invade in the future as part of the War on Something Else in order to free the populations of those countries from the tyranny of our current allies in the War on Terror.
In many, if not most, respects, the United States if a wonderfully free society. However, the shadow of Reagan still looms over our criminal justice system and our foreign policy, two areas where for at least two decades now we have been actively working to reduce the freedoms of millions of people both at home and abroad. I have no doubt that Ronald Reagan loved the concept of freedom above all else. However, like many Americans, he was able to develop a mental blind spot when some of his specific beliefs ran counter to the furthering of liberty. Sadly, the fact that few, if any, nationally prominent Democrats are willing to stand up against the draconian measures we are taking in the War on Drugs and the War on Terror will prevent this part of Reagan's legacy from receiving significant air play during the coming week. After all, Reagan's continuing policy success in these two areas is reflective of our continuing failure.
Republicans :: Sun Jun 6th, 2004 at 07:28:14 PM EST :: Post a Comment (3 comments)
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712,000 Part-Time Jobs Created in May
by Chris Bowers
Yesterday when I estimated that half of the new jobs created in May were probably part time jobs, I was way off. In reality, 287% of the new jobs created in May were part-time jobs. Check out page ten of the new jobs report (Warning PDF file):
Persons at work part time, in thousands
All Industries January February March April May
Economic Reasons 4,714 4,437 4,733 4,574 4,665
Non-Economic Reasons 18,905 18,900 19,006 19,000 19,621
Total 23,619 23,337 23,739 23,574 24,286
Nonagricultural
Economic Reasons 4,613 4,328 4,622 4,471 4,605
Non-Economic Reasons 18,636 18,691 18,693 18,664 19,220
Total 23,249 23,019 23,315 23,135 23,825
"Noneconomic reasons" means that the employees in question only wanted part-time work, and thus are not considered underutilized labor. "Economic reasons" means the opposite.
There are probably two main causes for the May surge in part time employment for non-economic reasons:
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College students starting part-time jobs over the summer
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The babies from the August 2003 blackout would have been born in May 2004, thus causing many people to switch to part-time employment to take care of their newborns.
No matter the causes, there were far more part-time jobs created in May than there were total jobs created in May. 712,000 part time jobs created minus 248,000 total jobs created equals 464,000 fewer people working full-time jobs in May than in April.
Overall, since February 949,000 part time jobs have been created. This number is almost identical to the total number of all jobs created since February, 947,000. According to the Department of Labor, over the past three months, full-time employment in this country has barely changed at all.
Labor :: Sat Jun 5th, 2004 at 05:15:33 PM EST :: Post a Comment (8 comments)
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Tuesday June 8th Thread
by Jerome Armstrong
Looks like Tuesday has a few primaries, so if you want to chime in with what the results will be, I'll be doing a follow-up post later this week.
- Virginia, the only competitive primary is the 8th CD (a campaign we are working). Andy Rosenberg is peddling the anti-semitic yarn against Jim Moran, with the help of pollster Alan Secrest-- who got the WaPost to print a frontpage story about a remark Moran supposedly made (though the other 3 people in the room deny it happened), without actually saying what the remark was. Whether Secrest, who was the outside-funded pollster that spurred Denise Majette's campaign against Cynthia McKinney, is working with the Rosenberg campaign, being paid by an outside organization, or some other arrangement, is unknown. What is known is that he came forward with these accusations only after being fired from the Moran campaign.
The Moran campaign has for the most part relied upon the traditional-style endorsements and effective GOTV operations, instead of the polling/media strategy that Secrest wanted.
By contrast, a mailer from Andy Rosenberg for Congress, Inc., to many Falls Church and 8th District addresses had no reference to Rosenberg's record or goals, nor names of supporters. It was solely an attack on Moran, reading, "Had it up to here with stories about Jim Moran? We deserve better," and cites 13 newspaper headlines critical of Moran, eight of which were from the Washington Post and three more from notoriously pro-Republican news organizations. Watch the VA 8th results to find just how effective a complete negative campaign can be in 2004. My guess is not very.
- South Carolina, there's a open Senate seat that is a toss-up. The Democratic nominee is going to be Educ. Supt. Inez Tenenbaum, who has over $1.3M raised. On the Republican side, it's a competitive situation that will feature a run-off election June 22nd. Here's the latest poll:
General Election Matchup
Beasley 39%
DeMint 20
Ravenel 19
Condon 13
Wirthlin Worldwide Survey (R), 5/25-26/04 for Ravenel (R), 400 LV; MoE 4.9%
- New Jersey, the 5th CD, where arch-rightwinger Republican Garrett is being challenged, two Democrats compete for the nomination:
In the 5th District, the race is between Democrats Dorothea Anne Wolfe and Frank Fracasso. The winner takes on freshman Republican Rep. Scott Garrett in November. Garrett received 60 percent of the vote in the 2002 general election.
Wolfe, 51, resigned from her job as chairperson of the Bergen County Improvement Authority to campaign. Wolfe's foray into the political scene began when she volunteered to walk door-to-door in Massachusetts when she was 19 to help Kerry in his first congressional bid. In 1972, she worked on George McGovern's campaign as a fund-raiser.
Primary Elections :: Sat Jun 5th, 2004 at 03:43:00 PM EST :: Post a Comment (3 comments)
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Poll
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