Bill O'Reilly Distorts Gallup Poll

On the May 26, 2004 episode of "The O'Reilly Factor," Bill O'Reilly had a segment on morality. In order to back up his claim that the country's moral fabric is coming apart, O'Reilly turned to a Gallup poll:

O’REILLY: The belief that America is degenerating on a moral level is shared by both Republicans and Democrats. According to a new Gallup poll, 82 percent of Republicans and 78 percent of Democrats say that moral values in the U.S.A. are only fair or downright poor. 40 years ago, only 33 percent of Americans felt that way.

These findings come from Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey, conducted May 2-4. The question is a recent addition to the survey, and was first asked in May 2002. However, historical measures on this subject suggest that Americans have traditionally been concerned about the state of moral values in the nation.

A 1965 Gallup Poll asked respondents to rate their degree of satisfaction with the "moral tone" of the nation, and found only 27% "extremely" or "considerably" satisfied, while 38% were "somewhat satisfied" and 33% were "not at all satisfied."

Also, remember that the 82 / 78 number was a combination of 'fair' and 'poor.' With the 1965 numbers, you have 38% as 'somewhat satisfied' which is likely comparable to 'fair' and 33% 'not at all satisfied,' which is likely comparable to poor. Combined, it's 71% as a combination of 'fair' and 'poor.'

In other words, O'Reilly compared two different things: the "fair/poor" part from May 2004, to just the "poor" from 1965.

Rich Lowry Distorts MoveOn.org's "The Day After Tomorrow" Position

In a recent column, Rich Lowry takes MoveOn.org to task for using the movie for its global warming campaign:

The premise of "The Day After Tomorrow" is as laughable as its dialogue. "I think we've hit a critical desalination point" passes for snappy repartee in the film, as global warming melts the polar ice caps. This disrupts the Gulf Stream, plunging North America into a new ice age. Tidal waves devastate New York City, which is then buried under ice and snow (ensuring the defeat, by the way, of whoever is running City Hall, since New Yorkers would never tolerate a mayor who couldn't clear the streets after a snowstorm).

Al Gore has given the movie two green thumbs up, and the left-wing group MoveOn.org is promoting it. Never mind that the movie's scenario is absurd. There is no such thing as a flash freeze that makes helicopters fall out of the air. Nor can an ice age descend in a matter of days. More sober environmentalists worry that the very ridiculousness of the film will discredit their cause ... "The Day After Tomorrow" might not be much of a movie, but it is useful for providing a glimpse into the soul of left-wing environmentalism. Pretty chilling.

The abrupt climate crisis in The Day After Tomorrow is over the top. A full-blown ice age could not happen. But global warming could bring dangerously cold temperatures in some areas, while others suffer severe storms, extreme heat, floods, droughts and water shortages

The new movie, "The Day After Tomorrow," is more science fiction than science fact. Yet the danger of a climate crisis is very real, and we've got to take action now to prevent it. Passing the McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act would be a big step in the right direction, creating national caps on the greenhouse gas emissions that cause global warming.

GOP Chairman Decries "politics of negativity"

In an email to supporters, RNC head Marc Racicot writes:

You understand what is at stake in this election; and you understand that the politics of negativity and anger are no match for the politics of optimism and hope.

Scholars and political strategists say the ferocious Bush assault on Kerry this spring has been extraordinary, both for the volume of attacks and for the liberties the president and his campaign have taken with the facts. Though stretching the truth is hardly new in a political campaign, they say the volume of negative charges is unprecedented -- both in speeches and in advertising.

The Flip-Flopping President

Courtesy of The Center for American Progress, 20 Flip Flops from George W. Bush. My favorite:

BUSH SAYS WE FOUND THE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION..."We found the weapons of mass destruction. We found biological laboratories…for those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons, they're wrong, we found them." [President Bush, Interview in Poland, 5/29/03]

...BUSH SAYS WE HAVEN'T FOUND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION "David Kay has found the capacity to produce weapons. And when David Kay goes in and says we haven't found stockpiles yet, and there's theories as to where the weapons went. They could have been destroyed during the war. Saddam and his henchmen could have destroyed them as we entered into Iraq. They could be hidden. They could have been transported to another country, and we'll find out." [President Bush, Meet the Press, 2/7/04]

Howard Dean Starts Syndicated Column

Here.

Ashcroft Out?

It seems increasingly likely, as the AG is losing favor with the Bush administration. Can you wait for the tell-all book? From TIME:

Has John Ashcroft fallen out of favor at the White House? The question may not be whether but how far. He was given a rare rebuke by Bush during the President's testimony before the 9/11 commission, over Ashcroft's political swipe at commission member Jamie Gorelick, a Deputy Attorney General under Bill Clinton. Well-placed Republican sources say the President has gone out of his way to take the spotlight off the Attorney General at high-profile law-enforcement-related events. It was Ashcroft's former deputy, Larry Thompson, now a visiting law professor at the University of Georgia, who joined Bush at a recent event promoting the Patriot Act in Buffalo, N.Y. And the White House prevailed upon Thompson to sit near Ashcroft during his testimony before the 9/11 commission in an attempt to soften the Attorney General's hard edge with commission members, who have grown contemptuous of his imperious manner and methods. Thompson, an African American, left Justice after serving almost two years under Ashcroft. Many believe Thompson may be back and in the top job if Bush wins a second term. In Buffalo, Bush extolled Thompson's credentials before a crowd and implied that Justice needs him back. "Larry, we miss you over there," Bush said. "Don't get too comfortable." Bush partisans interpreted those remarks — and Thompson's rising profile — as a sign the President is giving up on a long-term future for his truculent Attorney General. Said one: "Ashcroft will not be the A.G. by Christmas if Bush wins."

Cheney Lying?

From the Progress Report:

"Since I left Halliburton to become George Bush's vice president, I've severed all my ties with the company, gotten rid of all my financial interests...And as vice president, I have absolutely no influence of, involvement of, knowledge of in any way, shape or form of contracts led by the Corps of Engineers or anybody else in the federal government..."

– Vice President Dick Cheney on Meet The Press, 9/14/03

VERSUS

"Time Magazine has obtained an internal Pentagon e-mail sent by an Army Corps of Engineers official...dated March 5, 2003 [that] says 'action' on a multibillion-dollar Halliburton contract was 'coordinated' with Cheney's office. The e-mail says Douglas Feith, a high-ranking Pentagon hawk, got the 'authority to execute RIO,' or Restore Iraqi Oil, from his boss, who is Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz."

– Time Magazine, 5/30/04

Bush Setting AF1 Record

Getting his taxpayer funded benefits while he can. From the AP:

President Bush is using Air Force One for re-election travel more heavily than any predecessor, wringing maximum political mileage from a perk of office paid for by taxpayers.

While Democratic rival John Kerry digs into his campaign bank account to charter a plane to roam the country, Bush often travels at no cost to his campaign simply by declaring a trip "official" travel rather than "political."

Even when the White House deems a trip as political, the cost to Bush's campaign is minimal. In such instances, the campaign must only pay the government the equivalent of a comparable first-class fare for each political traveler on each leg, Federal Election Commission guidelines say.

Usually, that means paying a few hundred or a few thousand dollars for the president and a handful of aides. It's a minuscule sum, compared to the $56,800-per-hour the Air Force estimates it costs to run Air Force One.

It is an advantage that Bush and other presidents before him have enjoyed. President Clinton frequently was criticized by Republicans for his record-setting use of Air Force One in the campaign season, and Bush is exceeding Clinton's pace.

I BET JONAH'S FULL OF IT

TBogg notes that "Jonah slits his throat with Occam's Razor": Exhibit 1:

I BET MOORE'S LYING [Jonah Goldberg ]
Occam's razor, my friends, the simplest explanation is usually the best.

I WAS WRONG [Jonah Goldberg]
Moore didn't lie about having Berg footage.
Posted at 08:52 AM

Diedrich Concedes Defeat in SD

Looks like Stephanie Herseth will take the special election in S.D. today, as her opponent, Larry Diedrich, is "effectively conceding defeat in today’s South Dakota special House election before the polling booths even open." From the DC paper The Hill:

The former state senator dramatically ratcheted down expectations during an interview with The Hill at his campaign headquarters, saying he would be happy to lose to Democrat Stephanie Herseth by only five percentage points.

He has trailed her by seven or more points in recent polls, and, if he loses, it would be the GOP’s second special-election defeat this year. In February, Alice Forgy Kerr (R) lost to Ben Chandler (D) in Kentucky’s 6th District; it was the first time since 1991 that a Democrat won a Republican-held seat in a special election.

The battle for the House seat will continue tomorrow because the winner of the
special election must face the voters for a second time, in November. Both Diedrich and Herseth will be running in the fall election, so today’s contest amounts to a precursor of their upcoming race for a full, two-year term.

Kerry Intern Speaks

Writing in New York Magazine, Alexandra Polier on being "falsely accused of having an affair with John Kerry" and shifting "through the mud and the people who threw it."

Though my name wasn’t mentioned in the initial Drudge “exclusive,” it made its first appearance in the British tabloid The Sun on Friday, February 13. The article, by one Brian Flynn, referred to Kerry as a SLEAZEBALL in the headline and said I was 24 (didn’t I wish). It purported to quote my father at home in Pennsylvania discussing the senator, saying, “I think he’s a sleazeball.” The article also claimed to quote my mother as saying Kerry had once chased after me to be on his campaign. My mother was not even home when Flynn called, and Flynn didn’t tell my father—who at this stage was unaware of the Drudge allegations—that he was interviewing him. Instead, he presented himself as a friend trying to get hold of me to talk about John Kerry. My father, a Republican, who believed Kerry had flip-flopped on various issues, said, ‘Oh, that sleazeball.’ ” Here’s how it reappeared in Flynn’s piece: “There is no evidence the pair had an affair, but her father, Terry, 56, said: ‘I think he’s a sleazeball.’ ” Drudge quickly linked to The Sun’s interview ...

One reporter had a little girl call up, assuming I wouldn’t hang up on a child. They even made her say, “Can I talk to Alex?” And when I said, “Yes, it’s me,” a reporter jumped on the line. CNN’s Zain Verjee wrote beseeching notes, slipping them under the front gate. It was like a horror movie where the zombies are on the other side of the door and then an arm comes through the window. Stuck with Kerry’s denial, each of the American networks had hired a local fixer to approach me for a big sit-down. “Tell me it’s true and we’re on the next plane to Nairobi!” ABC’s Chris Vlasto e-mailed hopefully. Good Morning America, the Today show, CNN, and 60 Minutes all offered me airtime to tell my story. Editors whom I’d been begging for work were now clamoring for my attention ...

And what about Time? “I thought it was absurd,” says political columnist Joe Klein. “There are a whole bunch of things we’re looking into all the time. And there’s an important word here: Drudge. The world really has changed since September 11; the time is past when we’d waste two years on late-night pizza deliveries.”

Still, Drudge had been right about Monica, and no news outlet wanted to be caught without the story if it turned out to be true. I discovered they all had teams assembling background on me to run if the story stood up.

Washington Post: Bush Campaign "Unprecedented Negativity"; "Making History With Often-Misleading Attacks"

Indeed. From the Washington Post's staff writers:

The charges were all tough, serious -- and wrong, or at least highly misleading. Kerry did not question the war on terrorism, has proposed repealing tax cuts only for those earning more than $200,000, supports wiretaps, has not endorsed a 50-cent gasoline tax increase in 10 years, and continues to support the education changes, albeit with modifications.

Scholars and political strategists say the ferocious Bush assault on Kerry this spring has been extraordinary, both for the volume of attacks and for the liberties the president and his campaign have taken with the facts. Though stretching the truth is hardly new in a political campaign, they say the volume of negative charges is unprecedented -- both in speeches and in advertising.

Three-quarters of the ads aired by Bush's campaign have been attacks on Kerry. Bush so far has aired 49,050 negative ads in the top 100 markets, or 75 percent of his advertising. Kerry has run 13,336 negative ads -- or 27 percent of his total. The figures were compiled by The Washington Post using data from the Campaign Media Analysis Group of the top 100 U.S. markets. Both campaigns said the figures are accurate.

Brown University professor Darrell West, author of a book on political advertising, said Bush's level of negative advertising is already higher than the levels reached in the 2000, 1996 and 1992 campaigns. And because campaigns typically become more negative as the election nears, "I'm anticipating it's going to be the most negative campaign ever," eclipsing 1988, West said. "If you compare the early stage of campaigns, virtually none of the early ads were negative, even in '88."

EDIT: In an email today to supporters, campaign manager Mary Beth Cahill contrasted Kerry's positive ads with Bush's negative ads.

Park Budgets Suffer Underfunding

The country's national parks are suffering from chronic underfunding, according to a new survey from the Coalition of Concerned National Park Service Retirees. The Salt Lake Tribune:

The 250-member Coalition of Concerned National Park Service Retirees surveyed 12 national parks and found "a combination of significant cuts in budget, staff and visitor services at all of the parks."

The finding raises questions about the Bush administration's stated goal to "restore and renew" the national parks, according to Bill Wade, former superintendent of Shenandoah National Park and spokesman for the coalition.

In its report "Pretending to Protect the Parks," the coalition found:
* Budgets were down at eight of the 12 parks surveyed.
* Employee levels were reduced at all of the parks.
* Six of the parks have cut visitor center hours or plan to cut them.
* Nine of the parks have made cuts that will result in a reduced experience for visitors.

But Rep. Chris Cannon, R-Utah, who sits on the House Resources Committee, defended Bush's approach, saying, "It's not so much the amount of money but how it's used.

"The Bush administration is managing it so they get a good idea where the needs are for maintenance and improvement . . . so I think with the same money, we're doing a much better job."

The A-Z of Lying

Amusing editorial from the UK Indy, which goes through the alphabet to remind us about the lies used in the war on Iraq.

A Mohammed Atta. The Bush administration claimed that a meeting between the lead hijacker of the 11 September attacks and a senior Iraqi intelligence officer proved a connection between al-Qa'ida and Saddam Hussein. But there is no evidence such a meeting took place.

B Bush and Blair: The two leaders have reacted strongly to all suggestions they misled their respective electorates over the war, and maintain time will prove they were right to go to war. Both, though, are suffering poll difficulties, as problems in Iraq become worse, and each needs speedy improvement to shore up his position.

C Ahmed Chalabi. The leader of the Iraq National Congress, who is a member of the Iraq Governing Council, is now accused of having duped the Bush administration, as well as the media, into believing that Saddam Hussein represented a direct threat to US and British security.

D Dollars. Between 1992 and the US raid on Ahmed Chalabi's home last week, the US government channelled more than $100m (£55m) to his Iraqi National Congress. The money may have been a motivating factor for defectors to say what they thought the Americans wanted to hear. That funding has now been stopped.

'Day After Tomorrow' Tops Boxoffices Worldwide

And gets the top non-sequel worldwide release, BoxOfficeMojo:

Audiences around the world stormed theaters showing The Day After Tomorrow over the weekend.

Playing domestically and in 102 countries overseas, the $125 million disaster picture raked in an estimated $155 million through Sunday. Distributor 20th Century Fox noted that was the top non-sequel worldwide bow ever, and the movie has yet to debut in major markets Japan and South Korea. The overall worldwide opening record still belongs to The Return of the King, which earned $250.1 million in its first five days domestically and in 28 territories.

Kerry - Bush Statistical Tie in Minnesota

According to the latest St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio poll:

A new poll shows support for Democrat John Kerry and President George W. Bush is virtually even among voters in Minnesota, considered one of about 17 states that could go either way in this fall's presidential election.

The poll conducted for the St. Paul Pioneer Press and Minnesota Public Radio shows 44 percent of Minnesota voters would vote for Kerry, while 41 percent favor Bush. That puts the race within the poll's four-point margin of error, meaning results could differ by four percentage points in either direction. Two percent of those polled support independent candidate Ralph Nader, while 13 percent were undecided ...

Bush's performance ratings in Minnesota continue to slip, according to the Pioneer Press-MPR poll. Fifty-six percent of the respondents rated his performance as fair or poor, while 44 percent said it was good or excellent.

Comedy Tuesday

"Newly released transcripts reveal that President Nixon was drunk during the Arab-Israeli crisis of 1973. After hearing this, President Bush said, 'Hey, so was I!'" Conan O'Brien

"Two new polls show Arnold Schwarzenegger is the most popular Governor of California since 1991, when Governor Hasselhoff ran the state. When your competition is Pete Wilson and Gray Davis, is it really that big a deal to be most popular? It's like being the smartest Hilton sister." Jimmy Kimmel

"Attorney General John Ashcroft said today that Al Qaeda is determined to attack the United States sometime this summer. He said the terrorists may do it to try to influence our Presidential election. So Al Qaeda is basically like Ralph Nader, only with more followers." Jay Leno

"President Bush will be going back to his ranch in Texas for his usual month-long holiday weekend." David Letterman

"John Kerry raised all that money and he bought himself an airplane, a campaign plane for $10 million. A 757 jet -- a $10 million jet. And Ralph Nader, not to be outdone, is having himself shipped across country in a crate." David Letterman

"Al Gore is back in the arena. In a speech, he called for the resignation of Donald Rumsfeld. And Donald Rumsfeld in response, he stripped Gore naked and ran him around on a leash." David Letterman

WhiteHouse.org. President's Army War College Speech Explaining Plan to Grant Iraq the FREEDOM® to Enjoy Puppet Government and Decades-Long Foreign Military Presence

TheOnion. Fed-Up Cheney Enters Presidential Race Himself

TheOnion. Ex-Nickelodeon Stars Relate Horrors Of Green Slime Syndrome

NYT. Friar's Club: Comedy Central

Fark. Photoshop Bush cracking up

John Moe. Pros and Cons of Kerry's VP Candidates

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