Wednesday, May 19, 2004

Big Idea

A friend of mine has an idea for a new website. He calls it ReallyBigAsshole.com. The idea is that there are certain questions that can only be answered by a certain kind of person. Like: What's the best lap-dance club in LA? Like: Where can I buy a Maybach? Like: Who makes the sexiest clothes for children? Like: Where does John Kerry buy those outfits for snowboarding and biking?

I think it has huge potential.

Tuesday, April 20, 2004

Ellisblog on Hold

I've decided to stop blogging for a while. I'll return in a couple of weeks or months.

Friday, April 16, 2004

A Bridge to the Future

How much does it cost to build a new bridge in New York State? How much would you guess? $1 billion would have been my guess. Wrong! The plan to take down the Tappan Zee Bridge and replace it with a new one (and lard the whole thing up with public transport projects) puts the price tag at $20 billion. Which is a joke, but it's not a joke.

Postscript: A reader e-mails: "To me, even more astounding than the total price tag on the replacement of the Tappan Zee is that, according to the article, the price has increased by five times since they began studying it 4 years ago! How likely is it, then, that $20 billion will be the final price tag? Who knows what it will get up to - $50 billion? $100 billion? Really, anyone who thought that the problems & overruns at Boston's Big Dig were something specific to Massachusetts is nuts. It's all being repeated right here."


Wednesday, April 14, 2004

At His Best

The full transcript of President Bush's statement and press conference remarks can be found here. I agree with Virginia Postrel that the following section from the prepared statement is worth re-reading:


Above all, the defeat of violence and terror in Iraq is vital to the defeat of violence and terror elsewhere; and vital, therefore, to the safety of the American people. Now is the time, and Iraq is the place, in which the enemies of the civilized world are testing the will of the civilized world. We must not waver.

The violence we are seeing in Iraq is familiar. The terrorist who takes hostages, or plants a roadside bomb near Baghdad is serving the same ideology of murder that kills innocent people on trains in Madrid, and murders children on buses in Jerusalem, and blows up a nightclub in Bali, and cuts the throat of a young reporter for being a Jew.

We've seen the same ideology of murder in the killing of 241 Marines in Beirut, the first attack on the World Trade Center, in the destruction of two embassies in Africa, in the attack on the USS Cole, and in the merciless horror inflicted upon thousands of innocent men and women and children on September the 11th, 2001.

None of these acts is the work of a religion; all are the work of a fanatical, political ideology. The servants of this ideology seek tyranny in the Middle East and beyond. They seek to oppress and persecute women. They seek the death of Jews and Christians, and every Muslim who desires peace over theocratic terror. They seek to intimidate America into panic and retreat, and to set free nations against each other. And they seek weapons of mass destruction, to blackmail and murder on a massive scale.

Over the last several decades, we've seen that any concession or retreat on our part will only embolden this enemy and invite more bloodshed. And the enemy has seen, over the last 31 months, that we will no longer live in denial or seek to appease them. For the first time, the civilized world has provided a concerted response to the ideology of terror -- a series of powerful, effective blows.

The terrorists have lost the shelter of the Taliban and the training camps in Afghanistan. They've lost safe havens in Pakistan. They lost an ally in Baghdad. And Libya has turned its back on terror. They've lost many leaders in an unrelenting international manhunt. And perhaps most frightening to these men and their movement, the terrorists are seeing the advance of freedom and reform in the greater Middle East.

A desperate enemy is also a dangerous enemy, and our work may become more difficult before it is finished. No one can predict all the hazards that lie ahead, or the costs they will bring. Yet, in this conflict, there is no safe alternative to resolute action. The consequences of failure in Iraq would be unthinkable. Every friend of America and Iraq would be betrayed to prison and murder as a new tyranny arose. Every enemy of America and the world would celebrate, proclaiming our weakness and decadence, and using that victory to recruit a new generation of killers.

We will succeed in Iraq. We're carrying out a decision that has already been made and will not change: Iraq will be a free, independent country, and America and the Middle East will be safer because of it. Our coalition has the means and the will to prevail. We serve the cause of liberty, and that is, always and everywhere, a cause worth serving.



Political Notes


A new New Jersey poll has President Bush leading Senator Kerry by 48%-44%. These are the first truly surprising data of the season.

Kaus on Nagourney quoting Clymer is a must-read.

Monday, April 12, 2004

Bad News From Europe

The bad guys are further along than was previously thought.

Sunday, April 11, 2004

Daddy Won

Hats off to Phil Mickelson's first major championship triumph. I'm an Ernie Els fan, but I think even he was happy for Mick. Hats off as well to Casey Wittenberg, runner-up at the US Amateur last year. He finished at even par, shooting 31 on the back nine and earning himself a ticket back to Augusta next year with a 13th-place finish.

Next up is the US Open at Shinnecock Hills in Southhampton, New York, arguably the hardest great golf course in America.

Thursday, April 01, 2004

The Gaddis Lectures

Have been gathered together into a book: Surprise, Security and The American Experience. Mr. Gaddis is the Robert Lovett Professor of History at Yale. His prose is spare. His command of the material is impressive. Read the book. You won't regret it.
Kerry Fever Grips Hub

And New York Times political reporter Adam Nagourney. This is a direct quote from his front-page "analysis" published today:

"Mr. Kerry's low profile occurs at what would seem to be a particularly opportune time for the senator. Mr. Bush has been struggling with questions about his record on terrorism, and Mr. Kerry had been riding on a wave of excitement after his capture of the Democratic nomination." (emphasis added)

It hit me like a tsunami.




What's Your Real Job?

A number of readers have asked what it is I do all day. The answer is: I work at a Venture Capital firm and we raise private equity for early-stage companies. One of the companies that we have raised money for is Vectrix, which recently received a nice write-up in The Guardian. Another company we've helped is Adam Aircraft, which we think is going to be a player in the "air taxi" business.

The pace of business has increased in the last year, so it is likely that I will be blogging less and less. But you never know.

Sunday, March 28, 2004

Classic Gasbag Quote

It doesn't get much better than this:

"Kerry was acceptable to all the factions of the party because it was hard to type-cast him as Old Democrat or New Democrat, and it's hard to type-cast the party as New Democrat or Old Democrat," (former Clinton domestic policy adviser William) Galston said. "Bill Clinton changed some things, but he didn't change all things. [This is] a party that is uneasily poised between the parts of its past it wants to cling to and a future that it has not fully defined."

Just shoot me.


Saturday, March 27, 2004

Which Side Is He On?

Why hasn't ABC News fired Richard Clarke? They've been paying him a significant monthly retainer for (I think) more than a year now. And at exactly the moment that ABC News might expect to get a ratings return on their investment, what does Clarke do? He waddles over to "60 Minutes" with a sensational story of Bush Administration malfeasance and misconduct.

If I was the president of ABC News, I'd see that as breach of contract. And after I fired him, I'd sue him.

Friday, March 19, 2004

Buyer Beware


"I know none of you would ever take advantage of someone in distress, so I can safely share this: If you are looking to unload an asset, be it a car or an eBay gewgaw, try to find buyers who are feeling sad, and stay away from those who are feeling disgusted, happy or even neutral.

If, on the other hand, you are looking to buy, seek out sellers who are sad or disgusted, but again steer clear of anyone too jovial.

In a provocative result from the new discipline of behavioral economics, scientists find that emotions that have nothing to do with the transaction at hand can influence what price people are willing to pay for something and what price they are willing to accept.

"We're showing for the first time that incidental emotions from one situation can affect economic transactions in unrelated situations," says Jennifer Lerner of Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh. She and her colleagues will report their findings this spring in the journal Psychological Science.

Behavioral economics, which probes how psychology shapes the decisions people make in the marketplace, has mostly concentrated on cognitive processes. In one study, for example, researchers find that people are hardly the rational, logical decision makers that textbooks assume. If someone feels she has been cheated, and has a choice of collecting either $5 for herself and $5 for the cheater or nothing at all, she prefers to walk away with zero rather than see the cheater also collect."


--Sharon Begley, Science Journal column, 3/19/04


Wednesday, March 17, 2004

The Ultimate Kerry Quote


"I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it." No. it's not a line from a Kausian screed. These are Senator Kerry's very own words, as reported today in The New York Times.
The CBS/NYT Poll

Kausfiles has a good rundown on yet another loaded New York Times "analysis" of its most recent poll results. The CBS News report (on the exact same information) is infinitely better.

What the poll shows is that Kerry is now a net negative (okay, statistically even) candidate (28 favorable/29 unfavorable). And this after eight weeks of more or less glowing news coverage.

Tuesday, March 16, 2004

Is France Next?

From the ABC News Investigative Unit's Daily Terror Report:

Plus, today a group calling itself the "Servants of Allah the Powerful and Wise" sent a document to the French newspaper Le Parisien, in which it threatened violence against France and against France's interests abroad. The public prosecutor in Paris has opened an investigation to be conducted by special police services. Officials tell ABCNEWS that it is too early to determine the significance of this document.
It's Twue, It's Twue

Those foreign leaders really do like me better. So says Senator John Kerry. As oddball stories go, this one does ring true. It's classic Kerry -- the grandiosity, the self-seriousness and the weird political value judgement. Who, after all, would think that the opinion of, say, a German Minister would matter in, say, Missouri? John Kerry would! If it's important to him, it's important to them, goddamnit!

Most everyone I know who knows Kerry thinks that he made the whole thing up; that he is simply channeling Richard Holbrooke. Senator Kerry hasn't been anywhere near a foreign leader of any kind for two years (he's been running for president). But never mind about that. The song must be sung. Even though we all know it's not his song. Welcome to Kerry's world.




A Conservative Change

I think it was Jon Podhoretz, the New York Post columnist and author of Bush Country, who predicted this, but it happened so fast that most people (myself included) missed it. With Senator Kerry locking up the Democratic presidential nomination, conservative criticism of President Bush has all but ceased. Just like that. This is very good news for the Bush campaign.

Monday, March 15, 2004

Surrender

The head of the EU executive arm, European Commission chief Romano Prodi, agreed, in an interview published by Italy's La Stampa newspaper Monday.

"It is clear that using force is not the answer to resolving the conflict with terrorists," Prodi said. "Terrorism is infinitely more powerful than a year ago," and all of Europe now feels threatened, he told the paper.
-- from The Associated Press


Tony Raimondo

One of former Nebraska Governor and current US Senator Ben Nelson's closest political allies is Tony Raimondo, whom President Bush had planned to nominate as the Commerce Department's "manufacturing czar" until Democrats on Capital Hill started heaping slander on his good name. Geitner Simmons has a quick and telling entry on Raimondo in real life and what happened to him in the Beltway funhouse. (link via Instapundit)
Black Sunday

In the words of a Louisiana sherriff I once knew, "ain't no way to prettify those results." The defeat of the PP in Spain is the most depressing political development since 9/11, bar none.

Ellisblog's assertion that 3/11 would engage the EU in the War on Terror as never before was proven wrong in record time. Europeans are scared and imagine that they can wish and deny Al Qaeda away. This is folly in extremis. The Spaniards just handed Al Qaeda a huge political victory two days after Al Qaeda attacked their country and killed nearly 200 Spanish citizens.

Postscript: The new Spanish Prime Minister's remarks are, if anything, more depressing than the ballot results. (Link via Drudge)

Saturday, March 13, 2004

3/11

Europe is in now. That's what 3/11 means. They thought they could straddle it, let the storm blow by. But it just blew up in Madrid and every member state of the EU understands that Madrid is Rome is Berlin is Amsterdam is Paris is London is New York.

As a lot of people in the US have been saying for a long time, this isn't terrorism, this is a world war. On one side is a death cult that seeks global domination. On the other is democratic capitalism and what historians call "western and oriental civilizations." Know this about the death cult: the minute they get nuclear devices they will use them. In major urban areas. The minute they get aerosol small pox, they will use it. At airports and train stations and malls. These people worship death. It is their true religion.

Killing them is now the job of every western and oriental government. Every last one of them. The UN probably won't join us in this pre-emptive war against terrorism. But the EU will be along shortly. Eight million people in Spain didn't take to the streets because they were "traumatized," as one of the nitwit news channels put it. They took to the streets because they were furious about what happened in Madrid. Every politician in the EU understood the ramifications.

Game on. The game is kill every terrorist that walks.



Where The Evidence Leads

Stratfor reports that the evidence gathered in Madrid points away from ETA. The first two paragraphs of the Stratfor report are worth quoting in full:

Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar continued to insist March 12 that ETA is to blame for the most devastating attacks in his country's history. However, Spanish explosives experts examined an unexploded bomb found inside a backpack late March 11 and concluded the device was not manufactured by ETA bombers.

Within hours of the attack, European and Russian diplomatic and security sources told Stratfor that Islamist militants were the likeliest suspects. Those suspicions now have hardened. A highly placed U.S. source told Stratfor on March 12 that U.S. intelligence believes the attacks were carried out either by groups associated with al Qaeda or by al Qaeda sympathizers. The source confirmed that U.S. intelligence agencies are actively helping the Spanish government search for the guilty party.

Friday, March 12, 2004

Umbrellas In The Rain

Hundreds of thousands of them, as Spaniards take to the streets.

"To defend these causes the Government asks Spaniards to demonstrate tomorrow in the streets of Spain. Under the slogan "With the victims, with the Constitution, for the defeat of terrorism" demonstrations have been called in all Spaniard cities tomorrow Friday at seven in the evening. I wish those demonstrations to be as overwhelming as the pain we feel today, as civic as our patriotism that makes us feel solidarity with all those that suffer the consequences of terrorism's actions."

-- Prime Minister Jose Marie Aznar

Spain, Updated

This is a good end-of-day report from Reuters on the status of the rail bombings investigation and the political ramifications.

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