If you haven't heard about him yet, meet PAUL RIECKHOFF.
I met Paul yesterday at the Campaign for America's Future conference in Washington. He's a young, tough, white veteran from a small town (Peekskill, NY) -- in short, the sort of person who tends not to vote Democratic, no less give the Party's official radio response to the Bush's weekly radio address.
Which is what he did last month, because Paul is recently back from Iraq and wants Americans to know what he saw over there. He's been doing various radio and television appearances, so perhaps you've already seen him. (Yes, big dude with a bald head.)
Beyond all that, Paul is an impressive person -- period. So listen to his short, but powerful speech here, and/or read it here. As a teaser, it opens:
Good morning. My name is Paul Rieckhoff. I am addressing you this morning as a US citizen and veteran of Operation Iraqi Freedom. I served with the US Army in Iraq for 10 months, concluding in February, 2004.
I'm giving this address because I have an agenda, and my agenda is this: I want my fellow soldiers to come home safely, and I want a better future for the people of Iraq. I also want people to know the truth.
War is never easy. But I went to Iraq because I made a commitment to my country. When I volunteered for duty, I knew I would end up in Baghdad. I knew that's where the action would be, and I was ready for it.
But when we got to Baghdad, we soon found out that the people who planned this war were not ready for us.
It goes on, in greater detail, from there. Please listen to Paul. He's got something to say, something important to say.
Rasmussen released a batch of state-specific polls. The numbers are culled over a month-long period as part of his daily tracking poll. It's an unconventional methodology, but given the trend lines, we can at least gauge some measure of movement in each state.
Given constant media hammering, with video on every news show of people standing grimly at the pump, it’s no surprise so many Americans have bought into the idea that gasoline prices are sky-high. If we look back only to last June, who can disagree?
Historically speaking, however, prices are quite reasonable even with the recent spike. Factoring in inflation, we, our parents, grandparents and great-grandparents have in the past paid a lot more per gallon, as this graph clearly shows.
Indeed, for those of us on the green side of the political spectrum, U.S. gasoline is still astoundingly cheap - too cheap - at the $2.50 a gallon some Americans are now paying.
Not that we’re eager to cause economic pain. Not that we want OPEC or the oil corporations to get richer. But gasoline prices don’t reflect the subsidy provided by U.S. military projection abroad or by on-going damage to human health and the environment. Moreover, we’ve always believed that higher gasoline taxes - with the revenue targeted at research and incentives - should be a prominent component of an energy plan designed to turn gasoline into an artifact.
So, to the numbers. Remember, the last couple of months, we've seen Knowles' lead, which was 4 percent back in February, gradually erode away to the point last month where the race was tied.
This month, Tony has the lead back in a big way -- his largest lead of the campaign. Knowles is listed at 45.7 percent, Lisa Murkowski at 41.4 percent, Green Party candidate Jim Sykes at 1.3 percent, "other" at 4.6 percent, with 6.9 percent undecided.
Knowles' rating is 63.2 percent positive, his highest positive rating of the campaign to date, and 31.5 percent negative. That's testament to an effective start on the advertising front.
Lisa Murkowski's rating is 57.4 percent positive -- also her highest positive rating of the campaign -- and 34.1 percent negative.
For the seventh time in seven polls, Knowles' positive rating is higher than Murkowski's. And this is significant, because in a simplified sense, any political race is a beauty contest. The candidate that ends up in November with the higher rating will likely be the candidate that wins. And that's what political media is all about -- positive ads try to push a candidate's rating up, negative ads try to push an opponent's positive down.
In this poll, Knowles' positive is 5.8 percent higher than Murkowski's. Looking back over the seven polls, we see the following trend. Remember, these percentages represent the net difference between Knowles' positive rating and Murkowski's positive rating. Coincidentally, it all started back in November at 5.8 percent, exactly where it is now.
In January and February the gap widened to 9.5 percent in Knowles' favor, and that was when Murkowski started her media campaign. In March, April and May, the difference narrowed, exactly what we saw with the race numbers, down to a difference of just 2.8 percent last month. But now, with the start of Tony's media campaign, the difference is back up to 5.8 percent.
What's the likely strategy for the two campaigns from this point on? Lisa Murkowski's is simple. She has to get her positive higher than Tony's, or get his down below hers. Politics being politics, it'll likely be the latter. Indeed, Tuesday we saw the start of a soft-money campaign by the national Republican Senate Committee attacking Knowles for, in their opinion, being in cahoots with national Democrats who are opposed to opening the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
There's an Indepdence Party candidate now in the race, who may siphon off as many Republican votes as the Green candidate will take from Knowles. And Murkowski now faces a second primary challenger, Wev Shea -- a product of the Alaska GOP infighting currently raging in the state.
The NRSC is now attacking Knowles for a fabricated lack of support for ANWR drilling. Murkowski can't sit back either, and will have to go negative to try and bring down Knowles' favorables.
As part of the dKos 8 endorsements, you, the Daily Kos community, will vote on which two Senate candidates to endorse.
The vote will be next week, and will be done in Instant Runoff Voting mode: Everyone will rank the candidates from most to least preferred. If no candidate receives a majority of the number one votes, the candidate with the least total of number one votes is eliminated. The second choice votes from these ballots are then transferred to the other candidates.
This post is an opportunity for supporters of each candidate to make the case for their guys. Keep it positive guys, we want all these candidates to win in November.
There have been a lot of motivational speeches, by the likes of Howard Dean, Arianna Huffington, Jim Hightower, and CAF President Bob Borosage. But, between the big names who draw crowds and applause, there are many panels during which the practical and important details beyond rallying cries are discussed.
One such panel that numbers geeks like me would have enjoyed was the presentation by Celinda Lake, one of the top Democratic pollsters. There is far too much to distill here from Lake's PowerPoint, but let's just talk a sec about the five key Republican "opportunity groups" Lake has identified -- i.e., groups that favor the GOP, but marginally and weakly, such that Dems should be targeting them.
They are:
Devout Catholics
White Married Moms
Older White Blue-Collar Men
White Post-Graduate Men
Rural White Women.
I cannot delve into all five right now, but some quick thoughts on the first and last.
On the first: Though I'll leave the details of how to swing Catholic and other religious voters to Amy Sullivan, in Kerry the Dems have their first Catholic nominee since JFK, so Catholics could be unusually important. Another must-read is Rik Hertzberg's column in this week's New Yorker.
On the last: Lake says American spouses in certain demographic subgroups show signs of greater divergence than the existing gender gaps. (Funny sidebar: Among all married couples, Lake found that 73 percent of husbands say they expect their wives will vote the same way they do; only 49 percent of wives said that of their hubbies.) Notably, Lake says rural men and women especially do not converse with each about politics, and rural women are starting to move toward the Democrats. Wedge politics, it seems, now starts in the bedroom.
Final note: Looking at the rural voter dynamics along with Opportunity Groups #2 & #3 above, plus some other parts of Lake's presentation, reaffirms my nagging suspicion that Edwards makes the most sense as Kerry's running mate. But I'll need more time and space to flesh that argument out, so stay tuned. (Related "buzz" note: I heard today from a Kerry adviser that Bush's string of recent self-implosions has made less attractive or necessary a move by Kerry to pick his Veep in advance of the Boston convention...there's no reason, goes the logic, to distract attention from Bush's Chevy Chase-like stumbles.)
The two dKos 8 Senate endorsements will be selected by the community. Many of you requested to hear directly from the campaigns, and six campaigns responded -- Nancy Farmer (MO), Burt Cohen (NH), Eric Fingerhut (OH), Barack Obama (IL), Daniel Mongiardo (KY), and Tony Knowles (AK).
Please keep the comments on topic. Without further ado, here's Tony Knowles, running in Alaska.
It is difficult to try to introduce myself to a community that is already so well informed.
I am flattered and honored that you have asked me to contribute to your blog. I have read so many excellent discussions here about our campaign. In fact, it was your blog that was discussing the nuances involved in this race way back in December of last year (and before).
My real introduction to the Kos community came later. My comptroller came into the office one morning to look at our online donations from the previous day. After tallying the donations, she asked "did we send out a fundraising email and no one told me?"
It turns out the influx of online donations came from the DailyKos. Your blog posted portions of our weekly talking points right after I had received the HRC endorsement.
But enough about how I discovered you: let me take a moment of your time to talk about my campaign so that you all can discover me.
The first issues I want to discuss today are cost and opportunity.
My campaign's budget is relatively small. Every donation helps me get my message out to more Alaskans. Each donation brings us one step closer to the United States Senate.
Alaska has not had a competitive Senate race in 24 years. But times have changed, and this year represents an opportunity for the people of Alaska to elect a Senator who will always put Alaska first. This campaign is working to promote that message, working for jobs, education, healthcare and the protection of civil rights
Alaska is the most "wired" state in the country, and over 64% of Alaska households have internet access. Alaska is also 1/5 the size of the entire lower-48 states, and twice as big as the next biggest state - Texas!
So for our campaign, there's nothing quite like the internet to get our message out. And I'd like to take a moment to talk about this in greater detail.
Political candidates have a tendency to use the internet only as an ATM. On the Knowles campaign, the internet is much more than just a fundraising mechanism.
My campaign is using the internet to its full potential as a tool to disseminate information, connect supporters, and (yes, even we do this too) raise money. One of the most exciting things my campaign is doing is creating a social network similar to popular sites like Friendster and My Space.
My campaign is committed to pushing the envelope of internet campaigning. We fully realize that the internet is an essential too for bringing people together in an online community that compliments our offline communities.
And in the spirit of this commitment I promise that every dollar my campaign raises from DailyKos will be spent on my campaign's internet strategy.
Thanks for reading what I have to say. I truly appreciate you taking the time to inform yourselves about my campaign and hope that you will all get involved.
Tony Knowles
Note, some of you have complained in previous candidate appeals that the posts lack details. Well, if you want to blame someone for that, blame me. I limited the length of the appeals to a blog-friendly 500 words. I wanted short and pithy. If you guys want to know more specifics, please visit the candidate websites.
icon saves story in your Hotlist box.
My real introduction to the Kos community came later. My comptroller came into the office one morning to look at our online donations from the previous day. After tallying the donations, she asked "did we send out a fundraising email and no one told me?"