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Monday, June 07, 2004
by Aaron Gleeman ![]() The Minnesota Twins, by MonthThe Twins are now into their third month of the 2004 season, and I thought it might be interesting to look back at how they've played in each of the first two months and try to figure out what that might tell us about the rest of the season.First, here are the basics ... TEAMIt's not hard to see what happened to this team. The pitching staff was pretty bad in April, but the offense was absolutely out of control, scoring over six runs per game. Then, once May hit, the pitching staff improved quite a bit (12%), but the offense dropped off a cliff, falling by about 37%. Whereas they outscored their opponent by an average of 0.55 runs per game in April, they were outscored by 1.04 runs per game in May. I think they're actually lucky that their May record (12-16) wasn't worse. Overall, for the first two months, they averaged 4.80 runs per game and gave up 5.14. To put that in some context, for the entire 2003 season they averaged 4.94 runs per game and allowed 4.68. So, clearly, both the offense and defense are underperforming compared to last year, but the defense is the bigger issue. So, let's take a look at that first ... PITCHINGThe Twins walked more batters in May (+14.7%) and struck out slightly fewer hitters (-3.6%), but their batting average against, on-base percentage against and slugging percentage against all dropped. The slugging percentage improvement was the biggest (8.2%), which is thanks to a drop in home runs allowed (14.8%) and in doubles allowed (18.0%). The team gave up singles at roughly the same rate in both months. Here's a look at the individual pitchers ... PITCHINGYou can see how the roles of Seth Greisinger, Joe Roa and Terry Mulholland increased in May. Mulholland's was almost by default, since he was signed near the end of April, while Greisinger took over as the full-time #5 starter and Roa established himself in the bullpen. The Twins cut bait on Carlos Pulido and Brad Thomas, and Grant Balfour came off the disabled list. Other than that, the staff has been pretty steady. In general, the bullpen has been excellent this year. The fivesome of Joe Nathan, Juan Rincon, J.C. Romero, Roa and Aaron Fultz were all good in both months, and even Mulholland hasn't been horrible as a long-relief man. Nathan had an amazing May, as batters hit 4-for-40 off him with zero extra-base hits and 15 strikeouts. He did walk four people, so his totals were .100/.182/.100 for a GPA of .107. In other words, that's about as good as a pitcher gets. The starting pitching, on the other hand, stinks. Aside from Brad Radke in May, no starter had a GPA allowed below .250 in either month. Greisinger has given them a couple of decent starts, but he averaged just 5.0 innings per start over the first two months and batters hit a robust .309/.363/.539 against him, which is just terrible. With the bullpen performing well and several guys doing a nice job, I think the Twins might be best served to give Joe Roa a chance to start some games. Roa has been very solid in relief and has shown he can pitch multiple innings at a time. Plus, he has been a starter for just about his entire career before this season. In fact, he has a career record of 61-28 with a 3.38 ERA in 118 Triple-A starts. The only reason I can think of to keep Greisinger in the rotation over Roa is that Ron Gardenhire feels he needs Roa more in the bullpen, and you all should know how crazy I think that concept is. If the Twins were getting better starting pitching from the #5 spot in their rotation, they wouldn't be relying on the bullpen as much. If you needed more proof of this whole one-inning-closer thing being stupid, check out Joe Nathan's usage compared to some of the other relievers. Nathan is, clearly, the team's best reliever (which is why he's the closer), yet he pitched just 11.0 and 12.2 innings in the first two months. Meanwhile, Fultz pitched 11.2 and 13.0 innings, Romero pitched 11.1 and 16.0 innings, and Rincon pitched 12.0 and 14.0 innings. Why would you create a setup where your best relief pitcher is pitching less than all of your other relief pitchers? Nathan was 10th on the team in innings pitched through May. Finally, here is the hidden key to their improved pitching in May, the fielding ... DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATIOThat is the rate at which the Twins' defense turned balls in play into outs. This is, in my opinion, one of the most overlooked aspects of a team. When you look at the amount of runs a team allows, the pitching is always a huge factor, but it's not the only factor. Once the ball gets put in play (not a home run, strikeout or walk), it is up to the defense to turn it into an out, and their success doing that is extremely important. When singles and doubles start falling in, the pitching staff has to face more batters, rallies are extended, more pitches are thrown, and runners on base start scoring. In short, the Twins' defense has been horrible this season. Considering defense is something the team prides itself on and talks about constantly, it's extremely bad. The average American League team turned balls in play into outs 68.7% of the time through the end of May. The Twins converted balls in play into outs just 67.1% of the time in the first two months. There are some teams that can and do get away with low DERs, but the Twins are not one of those teams. They don't get a huge number of strikeouts and they are very stingy with walks, which means they are allowing a ton of balls in play. Plus, they give up quite a few home runs, which makes limiting the amount of hits on balls in play that much more important. Here's a look at the Twins' DER for the past few years ... YEAR DERThe defense this season is clearly not as good as it has been for the past few years, which is very troubling. For the most part, the defensive core (Cristian Guzman, Luis Rivas, Torii Hunter, Jacque Jones, Doug Mientkiewicz, Corey Koskie) remains the same, although some of those guys have missed time with injuries and Jones has shifted from left field to right field. It could just be a bad or unlucky two months. Defense can go into slumps just like offense can, so it's possible the Twins are just slumping and they'll turn it around and get the DER over 70% by the time the year is over. The improvement from April to May is certainly a step in the right direction. In fact, I think the DER improvement from April to May shows why the pitching staff allowed 18% fewer doubles in May. Getting more specific, doubles allowed can mostly be traced to the outfield defense and I think the fact that Torii Hunter missed about two-thirds of April and was healthy for almost all of May might explain the improvements there. Another thing I would like to think led to the improvement from April to May is the fact that Luis Rivas missed quite a bit of time in April and was replaced by Michael Cuddyer at second base. Now, Cuddyer is no great shakes defensively, but this would go along with my "anyone is better than Luis Rivas out there" theory. Okay, enough with the pitching and defense. Let's take a look at the guys who put the runs on the board ... HITTINGWell, right off the bat you see that the Twins walked significantly less (-20.0%) and struck out significantly more (+20.4%) in May, which is a pretty good way to go about ruining an offense. The Twins' hitters hit homers at about the same rate, but their singles (-10.8%) and doubles (-26.8%) dropped by quite a bit, which is why the team batting average fell by 52 points. Some of the decline in walks and hike in strikeouts can probably be traced back to the fact that a hacker like Hunter played a lot more in May than he did in April, while patient hitters like Shannon Stewart and Koskie played a lot less. Here's a look at the individual hitters ... HITTINGNow, this is interesting. First of all, you can see that the offensive collapse in May was not limited to just a few guys, it was a team-wide thing. Of the guys who got significant playing time (40+ plate appearances), six had a GPA of at least .275 in April, compared to zero in May. That's right, not a single guy who played on a regular basis had a GPA of even .275 in May. The best offense from regulars in May came from Cuddyer, Hunter and Lew Ford. Cuddyer, finally given a chance to play on a somewhat everyday basis, hit .241/.337/.470 with four homers and five doubles. He also walked 12 times, drove in 13 runs and scored 13 times -- all in just 95 plate appearances. Meanwhile, Ford lost all of his power from April, but still managed to hit .290 and get on base at a .371 clip. Hunter returned from injury and hit .255/.327/.489 with a team-best 14 RBIs and 16 runs scored. Other than those three (and Justin Morneau, who had a .302 GPA in very limited time), the entire offense was a mess. Guzman put up superficially good numbers in both months, hitting .292 in April and then .283 in May. As usual though, hidden behind those nice batting averages is the fact that he does nothing else beyond hitting singles. His GPAs (.234, .238) were horrible both months, even for a shortstop. This is something I have talked about before, of course. If you look at the above numbers very closely, you can actually see Henry Blanco and Jose Offerman turn into pumpkins. With Joe Mauer out, Blanco did very nicely in April and then continued to get plenty of playing time in May, and responded by "hitting" .145/.185/.242. Offerman also started hot and then completely fell apart, hitting .156/.289/.219 in May. Looking closely at the numbers, the only hitter on the entire team who was actually consistent from month-to-month is Guzman, whose GPA changed by just four points. Everyone else who had significant time in both months saw their GPA change by at least 30 points. Closing thoughts ... The pitching got better and the offense stunk in May. The first part of that is good news and the second part can at least be traced somewhat to all of the injuries and the fact that Blanco and Offerman started to play like themselves after great first months. Mauer's return should help in a several ways. First, it takes Blanco out of the lineup which, even if Mauer isn't great, will help the offense. Second, it allows Matthew LeCroy to (hopefully) DH on a regular basis, which will keep Offerman out of the lineup. I would say that having Cuddyer (arguably their most productive hitter in May) in the lineup at second base every day would also help the offense quite a bit, but it sounds like Rivas is on his way back from the DL, so I'm not at all confident that Cuddyer will continue to play second base regularly. My suggestions are pretty typical and mostly stuff I've been saying for a while now. Jacque Jones needs to be on the bench against lefties. He started out extremely well against them and everyone was e-mailing me to gloat about how wrong I was about him never improving against southpaws. Well guess what? Now he's down to .257/.345/.297 against them, and most of that decent on-base percentage is due to being hit by four pitches. You simply cannot have a corner outfielder who hits like that in the lineup. Oh, and for those of you wondering, he hit .231/.274/.336 against lefties from 2001-2003. Funny how those e-mails stopped all of a sudden. Rivas needs to either get injured again or stay on his rehab assignment for about three months. Cuddyer being in the lineup in place of him on an everyday basis would be a huge boost to the offense. For more on this topic from last week week, click here. It strikes me as both strange and frustrating that the offense has struggled so much over the last six weeks and Justin Morneau, perhaps the best hitter in the entire organization, spent all but a week of that time either on the bench or at Triple-A. Morneau is now batting .342/.411/.621 with 10 homers and 15 doubles in 40 Triple-A games, and he hit .292/.370/.542 when the Twins decided to let him hit for seven games. I just don't know what else to say about this. The team can't score runs, they have a semi-opening at designated hitter, and they have one of the best hitting prospects in all of baseball destroying Triple-A pitching. Somehow those dots just can't get connected. On the pitching side of things, I wish they would utilize Joe Nathan more, whether in multi-inning appearances or simply in more games where the team is either tied or behind by a run. There's just no reason for him to be fifth among relievers in innings pitched. Also, I would give Joe Roa a look as the fifth starter. He has been very good out of the bullpen, he has a nice track record of starting in the minor leagues, and Seth Greisinger is simply not getting the job done. Beyond those things, you just have to hope that Johan Santana and Kyle Lohse improve, and that the hitters can get healthy and back to hitting. Today's picks: St. Louis (Carpenter) -120 over Chicago (Rusch) Houston (Duckworth) -110 over Seattle (Nageotte) Total to date: -$1,725 W/L record: 80-107 (5-10 over the weekend for -440, with one no-bet thanks to a different starting pitcher.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!***** Friday, June 04, 2004
by Aaron Gleeman ![]() Same s***, different dayI'm really getting sick of this.You may remember that in his start against the Royals last week, Johan Santana was cruising along before things completely imploded with one out in the seventh inning. Well, yesterday afternoon, Santana was really cruising along through five innings against the Devil Rays and then things blew up in the sixth inning. Santana's line through five full innings: IP H R ER BB SO HRNow, at no point did I say "I think Johan is gonna get a no-hitter today," but he was definitely cruising along and he looked very good. He had the hitters totally off-balance, and he had the fastball/changeup combo working. And, well, he did have the no-hitter going. Then, just as has been the case this entire year, things fell apart in an instant. Geoff Blum doubled to lead off the sixth inning to break up Santana's no-hitter. Santana got Rey Sanchez to strikeout and then got Carl Crawford on a long fly out to center field. With two outs in the inning, it looked like he would continue to cruise ... and then it fell apart. Julio Lugo got an infield single up the middle to score Blum, Rocco Baldelli followed with another single, and then Aubrey Huff hit a mammoth three-run homer to deeeeeep right field. Santana came into the inning with a no-hitter and left having given up four runs in six innings, for yet another "bad" start. I cannot begin to tell you how frustrating it is to watch Santana this year. He is coming so incredibly close to putting everything together for great starts ... only to have it slip away so quickly. It's painful. My reaction to the homer by Huff was highly audible and included the mention of a parent and a word that the dictionary tells me means "someone who engages in sexual intercourse." When combined, the dictionary tells me, they mean "something regarded as thoroughly unpleasant, frustrating, or despicable," which sounds just about right. The big difference yesterday as opposed to Johan's disappointing start last week against the Royals is that he can't blame the bullpen this time. He got himself into trouble and then Aubrey Huff made him pay. After his messy sixth inning, Santana stayed in to pitch the seventh and two-thirds of the eighth. His final line for the game was actually pretty decent ... IP H R ER BB SO HR PIT... but "pretty decent" is not what you need when you're trying to bring your ERA down out of the 5.00s. Santana, of course, got the loss, because the Twins aren't scoring runs anymore. They just aren't, that's how it goes. Instead, they are focusing all of their efforts on making completely mediocre (and worse) starting pitchers look like Cy Young candidates. Don't believe me? Here are the starting pitchers the Twins have faced recently, along with their career ERAs: Victor Zambrano 4.58Zack Greinke has a nice career ERA, but keep in mind that he's 20 years old, his career is exactly three starts long, and the start against the Twins was his second as a major leaguer. If you go through a portion of your schedule in which you face Rob Bell twice and guys like Mark Hendrickson, Dennys Reyes and Jason Standridge once, and the best pitcher you face is a 20-year-old rookie, you should be pouring the runs on. Instead, the Twins scored an average of 3.00 runs per game in those nine games. That's just pitiful and it was made even worse by the fact that they wasted some pretty good pitching in that stretch. The Twins gave up only 4.33 runs per game in those nine contests. They did have one offensive explosion in the middle of all that crappy hitting, bashing the hell out of Paul Abbott on Tuesday. Funny thing is, even with those 16 runs added in, they averaged just 4.30 runs in the 10 games. The even funnier thing is, the Devil Rays released Paul Abbott and his 6.70 ERA yesterday. This was supposed to be the easy part of the schedule too. Seven games against the last-place Devil Rays, three games against the last-place Royals, and then three games against the suddenly mediocre Tigers. Well, the Tigers are coming to town today and the Twins are 3-7 in the easy games thus far. If it seems like the Twins have done this before, it's because they have. Last year, just before the All-Star break, the Twins dropped nine out of 10 games to three bad teams -- Cleveland (68-94), Texas (71-91) and Anaheim (77-85). Back in 2001, when the Twins surprised everyone with a good first-half and then completely fell apart, they had an incredibly demoralizing stretch in which they surrounded losing two sets of games against the first-place Indians by going 2-9 against Tampa Bay and Toronto, who won 62 and 80 games respectively that year. It's still very early, so these bad losses aren't as tough to take as they would be in, say, August. Still, I'll say this ... the White Sox aren't going to do all they can to give the Twins the division every year. They might have in 2002, they might have last year and they might again this year, but at some point losing games to horrible teams is going to come back and bite you in the ass. Some final notes before I call it a week ... My new laptop arrived yesterday afternoon. Once again, thank you to each and every person who donated money to help me buy this. It is greatly appreciated. I have to say, my computer situation worked out a whole lot better than I first imagined it would. My old laptop crapped out on me on a Monday, I complained about it on Tuesday, asked for donations on a Wednesday, ordered the new computer on a Sunday, and I am now typing this very sentence on a brand new laptop on Thursday evening. For those of you wondering (and, believe it or not, I got several e-mails about this), I got an HP Pavilion zx5000, which probably doesn't mean much to you unless you're a computer nerd. It's not the very top-of-the-line model, but it's a nice one. I chose an HP because my old laptop was an HP and, despite the various issues with it over the last two years, I liked having it and it treated me pretty well. I have worked on Toshiba and IBM laptops in the past, as well as the HP, and I found the HP to be the best for what I use it for. I will, of course, let you know if anything goes wrong, but I'm crossing my fingers that it'll be great to me for the next couple years (and yes, for those of you who read Wednesday's entry about the "Aaron's Baseball Blog Jinx," that last part was sarcasm). I also want to thank the people who e-mailed me about getting me a deal on a computer from the company they work for or through the company they work for. While it was very nice of all of you, I am a little uneasy accepting something like that, for whatever reason. I'm not sure why, but it just feels to me like asking for individual donations is one thing, but actually getting a computer from a reader is a whole separate issue. I guess I still have to get used to the idea that there are a lot of people out there, with a lot of different jobs, at a lot of different places, who wouldn't mind doing me a favor or two. Hopefully this laptop will last me long enough that, by the time I need a new one, I'll have no problem calling on you guys for favors. Finally ... I am working on what I think is an interesting (and lengthy) article about the Twins' season thus far, which will be posted here first thing Monday morning. So make sure to stop by to check that out. In the meantime, if you're looking for some stuff to read over the weekend, here are some of my recent articles from The Hardball Times: - The Magic Twenty (Right Field) - Beat 'Em Like They Stole Something (Part One) - Beat 'Em Like They Stole Something (Part Two) - Twins Notes Oh, and Pistons in six. (Yeah, you heard me.) And on that note, have a great weekend and I'll see you back here Monday ... Friday's picks: Philadelphia (Milton) -110 over Atlanta (Smith) San Francisco (Schmidt) -155 over Colorado (Estes) Texas (Rogers) +180 over New York (Brown) Detroit (Maroth) +130 over Minnesota (Lohse) Chicago (Garland) +115 over Seattle (Garcia) Saturday's picks: Montreal (Ohka) +150 over Cincinnati (Wilson) Detroit (Knotts) +125 over Minnesota (Greisinger) Chicago (Schoeneweis) -110 over Seattle (Franklin) Toronto (Hentgen) +190 over Oakland (Hudson) Sunday's picks: Philadelphia (Millwood) -105 over Atlanta (Wright) Florida (Penny) +105 over New York (Leiter) Montreal (Hernandez) +120 over Cincinnati (Van Poppel) Pittsburgh (Vogelsong) +200 over Chicago (Maddux) Detroit (Robertson) +120 over Minnesota (Silva) Boston (Lowe) -130 over Kansas City (George) Cleveland (Sabathia) +135 over Anaheim (Colon) Total to date: -$1,285 W/L record: 75-97 (1-1 yesterday for +65. Nearly 2-0 for +325, but the A's won in extra frames.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!***** Thursday, June 03, 2004
by Aaron Gleeman ![]() The gift that keeps on giving ... even to the Twins!Yesterday afternoon, before the Twins game, I watched the White Sox/A's game.It was a very good game, featuring a matchup of two of the best lefty starters in the league, Mark Mulder and Mark Buehrle. Anyway, the end of the game had me smiling, mostly because the White Sox lost, but also because the A's won and it was a particularly good final two innings for Oakland GM Billy Beane. With Chicago leading 2-1 in the bottom of the 9th, Billy Koch came in to close the game. He blew the save, allowing the tying run to score, and the game went into extra innings. In the bottom of the 10th, Chicago sent Jon Adkins out to pitch and he gave up a walkoff homer to Mark Kotsay. Oakland won 3-2. Why is this noteworthy? Consider this ... Both Koch and Adkins were once property of the A's. Koch was their closer in 2002 (he went 11-4 with a 3.27 ERA and 44 saves) and Adkins was Oakland's 9th round pick back in 1998 and a fringe prospect. Beane traded Koch to the White Sox in a deal that brought Keith Foulke to Oakland, and he sent Adkins to Chicago for Ray Durham. Assuming he could forget about Eric Chavez's broken hand for a moment, I bet Beane was smiling yesterday afternoon. Those two trades have worked out pretty damn well for the A's. Durham hit .274/.350/.457 in 54 games for them in 2002, helping them make the playoffs, and Foulke went 9-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 43 saves as their closer last year. Now, both players left as free agents after their one year (or half-year) in Oakland, but the A's got more than that out of them. If you add everything up, including all of the subsequent trades of other players involved in the original deals, here's what the two trades ended up being: To Chicago: Billy Koch Jon Adkins Neal Cotts Daylan Holt To Oakland 54 games of Ray Durham 45 games of Jose Guillen 72 games of Keith Foulke 13 games of Mark Johnson Brian Snyder Omar Quintanilla #24 pick in 2004 draft #36 pick in 2004 draft Now, I'm stretching things just a tad, because the A's got Joe Valentine from the White Sox and then shipped him to the Reds for 45 games of Jose Guillen, but they also had to include Aaron Harang and another pitcher in the deal. Still, even if you ignore Guillen (he wasn't that good in Oakland anyway), I think the A's did pretty well here. Foulke was phenomenal for them last year, the best closer in the AL, and Durham was very good for them down the stretch in 2002. When Durham signed with the Giants, they got the #26 and #33 picks in the 2003 draft, which they used to select Brian Snyder and Omar Quintanilla. Snyder is a third baseman who is hitting .306/.415/.470 at Single-A, and Omar Quintanilla is a shortstop who is hitting .265/.330/.415 at Single-A. Then, when Foulke signed with the Red Sox this past offseason, the A's got two more picks as compensation, #24 and #36 in next week's draft. So, basically, for Billy Koch, Jon Adkins, Daylan Holt and Neal Cotts, the A's got a full season of Foulke, a half-season of Durham, some amount of Guillen, and then Brian Snyder, Omar Quintanilla and the #24 and #36 picks in this upcoming draft. Meanwhile, Koch has been horrible for the White Sox, Adkins is nothing more than a replacement-level arm, and Daylan Holt doesn't strike me as much of a prospect. On the other hand, Neal Cotts isn't a bad young pitcher and I think he'll have a nice career, but even the biggest White Sox fan in the world would have to admit that Beane made out like a bandit here. The 9th and 10th innings yesterday afternoon (as well as the game last Tuesday, in which Cotts served up the game-winning homer to none other than Bobby Kielty) are just icing on the cake, and as a Twins fan I couldn't be happier. New article at The Hardball Times: The Magic Twenty (Right Field) Today's picks: Tampa Bay (Hendrickson) +165 over Minnesota (Santana) Toronto (Batista) +160 over Oakland (Zito) Total to date: -$1,350 W/L record: 74-96 (1-1 yesterday for -20. It was almost 2-0 for +230, but Pedro and his bullpen ruined that.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!***** Wednesday, June 02, 2004
by Aaron Gleeman ![]() This and ThatHere are some random thoughts and notes while I wait for my precious new laptop to arrive ...The Insider I just saw yesterday afternoon that Rob Neyer's ESPN.com column will now be a part of "ESPN Insider." I assume the content of the column will be the same (which is to say excellent), but this means ESPN.com will now be charging you to read them. Here's the actual announcement, from ESPN.com: Beginning June 14, you can read Rob Neyer's column four times a week as part of ESPN Insider. You will find Rob's insights at MLB Insider, as well as peppered throughout ESPN.com's baseball coverage.The funny thing is that they make it seem like a good thing: "You can read Rob Neyer's column four times a week as part of ESPN Insider." Wow, four times a week! The only problem is that you've been able to read Neyer's column four times a week for the past five years or so, completely free of charge. As someone who loves Neyer's writing and as someone who doesn't have a subscription to ESPN Insider, this is very troubling news, though not really that surprising. More and more, as this whole internet thing keeps evolving, good writing is moving to the pay side of websites. We saw it with Baseball Prospectus and now with Neyer, and those are just a couple examples from the baseball-writing niche. There are probably hundreds of other writers in other areas (politics, entertainment, etc.) who are no longer free to read. In a way, it's a shame, because one of the really cool things about the internet is the fact that you can get so much great entertainment and information, and it's all at your fingertips. Now it's still at your fingertips, but it's behind the wall of money. Still, you pay for magazines and books and newspapers and such, so I guess it only makes sense that you'd also pay for good reading material on the internet. I like Rob's work so much that this news actually made me sad and then actually made me think about whether or not I should buy ESPN Insider. Of course, I'm the same guy who was begging for donations to help buy a laptop last week, so you can guess what my decision was. I hope Rob at least got a nice raise for this. He definitely deserves it. Typical Yesterday, I complained about the Twins' handling of Justin Morneau and how frustrating their general approach to young players is. Then I saw the following in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune: When the Twins called up top hitting prospect Justin Morneau from Rochester, they left open the possibility that he would hit his way into the everyday DH job.First of all, to say that "they left open the possibility that he would hit his way into the everyday DH job" is incorrect at best and a regurgitation of the Twins' spin-job at worst. The minute they called Morneau up all they did was talk about giving him the job on an everyday basis, allowing him to get his feet wet regardless of whether or not he hit well initially. The day they called him up, Ron Gardenhire said, "I guarantee you that he will be in the lineup, hacking. That's what we like to see." His guarantee apparently lasts about seven days. A couple days later, the same writer, Jim Souhan, who wrote the above about Morneau possibly "hitting his way into the everyday DH job," wrote that Morneau was "slated to DH every day." This is just so incredibly typical of the Twins. For one thing, they jerk around every young player who isn't a crappy middle infielder. For another thing, they like to talk a good game about giving young players long looks and legitimate shots to establish themselves in the lineup. And then, inevitably, they completely change their mind a week later and either bench the guy or send him back to the minors. It has happened with Morneau twice already and it has happened to Michael Cuddyer a couple times too. If you're going to call up your best prospect for a week and then send him down, regardless of how well he's done, then just say that. Don't give everyone some bulls--- story about how he's getting a real opportunity and then some other bulls--- story about how he's "the leading candidate to be sent down" because he "seems to be swinging for the fences." So, in addition to lying about the opportunity they were giving him, the Twins are now finding fault with the play of a 23-year-old rookie who is hitting .292/.370/.542. It is almost comical, or at least it would be if I were a fan of another team. This is similar to what happened to Michael Restovich last year. Restovich came up for a short time and hit .283/.406/.415 in 64 plate appearances, which is very nice production from a 24-year-old getting his first extended playing time in the big leagues. But when the Twins eventually sent him down, they knocked him for being too patient at the plate and for not being aggressive and not "swinging for the fences." Well guess what? Now that's all Restovich is doing. Thanks to continually being brushed aside by the team, he is now in his third consecutive season at Triple-A, and he's hitting .242/.282/.522. The Twins should be happy though, because Restovich isn't walking (seven non-intentional walks in 45 games, which is just miserable) and he's definitely swinging for the fences (12 homers and 40 strikeouts in 182 at-bats). Oh, and just as I suspected yesterday, the Twins sent Justin Morneau back down to Triple-A to clear room on the roster for Joe Mauer. Wanna know the funniest part? Last night's starting DH was Jose Offerman. The Aaron's Baseball Blog Jinx On Monday, I wrote about the Timberwolves' 2003-2004 season and talked about how disappointing it was for them to lose a key player like Cassell in the playoffs, after suffering through so many tough years trying to get to this point. Get this ... I got several e-mails (so it wasn't just one weirdo) telling me that I had "jinxed" the team, more or less, because I was assuming their season would end against the Lakers and talking about the season as if it were already finished. Their season did end on Monday night, but the bigger point is that there is no such thing as a "jinx." What I say or write has absolutely no impact on the Timberwolves' ability to win games. It just doesn't, I don't care what you say. Beyond that, even if I had the ability to jinx the team, how can you jinx a team that is down 3-2 in a series? If I write about how the Devil Rays' 2004 season was a disappointing one despite there being 100 games left, am I jinxing them? This brings up a larger issue, which is this whole concept of jinxing and "knocking on wood" and all that other junk. A lot of people I know like to say stuff like "poo poo poo" or "knock on wood" in response to things I say, and it is incredibly annoying. And people know it is meaningless too. Sometimes my mom will say "knock on wood" and I'll just look at her and say, "Why would you say that? Do you think that does anything?" She will, of course, say that it has no value and is just silly, but then she'll do it again a few days later. The whole concept that what some random person says or does or knocks on can have an impact on the actions and lives of other people, often people the person doesn't even know, is beyond silly. An announcer talking about a no-hitter will not cause a pitcher to lose the no-hitter. Someone knocking on wood will not change the course of events in a given situation in any way. Someone responding to you saying something negative with "poo poo poo" will do nothing but make you think less of the person. This is just how the world works, people. The words I type on my computer don't cause Kareem Rush to make six 3-pointers, and the fact that you hit your knuckles on the kitchen table doesn't impact anything other than your knuckles and the kitchen table. With that said, I'd appreciate it if everyone would cross their fingers regarding my new laptop arriving safely next week. New article at The Hardball Times: Beat 'Em Like They Stole Something (Part Two) Today's picks: Toronto (Lilly) +130 over Seattle (Pineiro) Boston (Martinez) -150 over Anaheim (Washburn) Total to date: -$1,330 W/L record: 73-95 (0-4 yesterday for -415, with two non-bets thanks to pitching changes.) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!***** Tuesday, June 01, 2004
by Aaron Gleeman ![]() Some of y'all might be with this, and some of y'all won'tWhile watching the Twins lose to the Devil Rays yesterday afternoon, I found myself extremely frustrated for no apparent reason (other than the score, of course). I tried to think of why exactly I was feeling this way and ... well, to quote DJ Kool, "Let me clear my throat."At the count of threeWhen they called Justin Morneau up at the start of last month, the Twins said all the right things about playing him every day, getting him at-bats and all of that good stuff. As usual with the Twins though, talk is extraordinarily cheap. Morneau's everyday playing lasted exactly a week. Then, with the Royals starting a left-handed pitcher on both May 29 and May 30, Morneau did not play. Morneau is a young left-handed hitter who has struggled against lefties in his few at-bats against them in the majors thus far, so I suppose I can see why they would bench him. Personally, I would never sit him out twice in a row, but there's at least a line of thinking present that I can see. Well, yesterday the Twins played Tampa Bay and the Devil Rays started Rob Bell, a right-handed pitcher (and a bad one at that). And, once again, Morneau found himself on the bench. I have to say, I just don't get it. Why have him in the majors to sit on the bench, even against lefties? This is a guy you want to be the future of your offense, the big bopper in the middle of your lineup, but you don't have the confidence in him to play him against a couple of lefties in May? And we're not talking Randy Johnson and Barry Zito here, it was Dennys Reyes and Jimmy Gobble. With Rob Bell and his career ERA of 5.88 on the mound, what possible reason could there be for not playing Morneau? He's killed the ball in the few at-bats the Twins have given him thus far, hitting .292/.370/.542, and he hadn't played in two days. But no, the Twins had Doug Mientkiewicz at first base and Matthew LeCroy at DH. Now I love LeCroy and I am glad to see him in the lineup, but why not stick him behind the plate? Instead, the Twins continue to give Henry Blanco tons of at-bats, despite the fact that his deal with the devil lasted only a couple weeks and ran out a long time ago. Blanco is hitting .136/.177/.186 in 59 at-bats this month (and yes, I realize he hit a homer yesterday ... so what?). With Joe Mauer out, this was a chance to give LeCroy a long look behind the plate, to see if perhaps he could be the long-term answer as Mauer's backup. Instead, they play Blanco's incredibly weak bat and leave Morneau on the bench. I love the Twins and I happen to think they are a well-run team and organization. If they weren't, they wouldn't be able to win like this on such a small budget. With that said, they do so many things that just make absolutely zero sense to me. I suspect Morneau will be sent back to Triple-A when Mauer returns from the disabled list this week or, if that's not the case, when Luis Rivas comes back from the DL shortly after that. And then Morneau will hit .350 with huge power at Rochester, Henry Blanco will hit .190 in Minnesota, and the Twins will wonder why they can't score any runs. Tell me what's wrong with this picture ... - The Twins have one of the best prospects in all of baseball. - He destroys Triple-A pitching. - They call him up and say they will play him every day. - He goes 3-for-3 in his first start and hits .292/.370/.542 overall. - They bench him for three straight games. And then, if my guess is right ... - They send him back down to Triple-A. There is a disconnect between logic and action, between planning and following that plan here that is incredibly frustrating to watch, year after year after year, player after player after player. It could be worse, of course. The Twins, even with all of their obvious faults, are far from the worst team to root for. Still, there's no reason they have to be difficult to root for at all. I was daydreaming the other day about just how young and how cheap the Twins could get all of a sudden, perhaps as soon as next year. It's nothing more than a dream, of course, because the people actually in charge of making decisions don't think like I do, but bear with me. C Joe MauerThrow in a bench of LeCroy, Nick Punto, Alex Prieto, Michael Restovich and Michael Ryan, and that is a group that includes one player over 30 (Koskie) and three players who make more than the league minimum (Koskie, Hunter, Mientkiewicz). I think -- and I don't know the exact contract situations -- that the total payroll of those 14 position players would be somewhere around $20-22 million, and that's with Corey Koskie counted at $7 mill (he's a free agent). That is a team I could root for, a team that would be fun to watch play and, more importantly, watch develop and improve. It would also leave about $35 million to put together a pitching staff, which would give Terry Ryan plenty of interesting opportunities. I've said many times that this current Twins team has a chance to do something that is normally very difficult, which is contend for the postseason and completely rebuild all at the same time. They have the young established major leaguers to do it and they have the young, major league-ready prospects to do it. They won't, of course. That's just not how they operate. Instead, they'll pay Shannon Stewart $6 million to provide average offense, they'll bring back Cristian Guzman and/or Luis Rivas to suck up outs and drive me crazy, and they'll leave prospects in the minor leagues, much to the delight of the lovely people of Rochester, New York. Talent or experience, that's what it comes down to in my mind. I'll take talent over experience every single time, especially when the talent is young and cheap. I sometimes wish the Twins thought the same way. And while they're at it, it'd be nice if they wouldn't lose 5 out of 7 to Kansas City and Tampa Bay. New article at The Hardball Times: Beat 'Em Like They Stole Something (Part One) Today's picks: Montreal (Armas) +170 over Atlanta (Wright) Milwaukee (Sheets) -110 over Los Angeles (Weaver) Tampa Bay (Abbott) +160 over Minnesota (Silva) Toronto (Halladay) -140 over Seattle (Meche) Chicago (Loaiza) -115 over Oakland (Redman) Boston (Arroyo) +125 over Anaheim (Colon) Total to date: -$915 W/L record: 73-91 (5-3 yesterday for +385. At least it's under -$1,000 now!) *****Comments? Questions? Email me!*****
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