Taegan Goddard's Political Wire

New State Polls

Several new state polls are out today:

• Maine: Kerry 49% Bush 39% (Critical Insights)
• Washington: Kerry 49% Bush 44% (Survey USA)
• Minnesota: Kerry 48% Bush 43% (Rasmussen)
• Alabama: Bush 57% Kerry 36% (Rasmussen)

Swing Voters Harder To Convince

"Potential swing voters in swing states – the real target of the presidential campaign these days – are more critical of the economy and the situation in Iraq and less impressed with either George W. Bush or John Kerry than the electorate generally, the latest National Annenberg Election Survey shows.

"These persuadable voters in the battleground states – about 11 percent of the nation’s public -- are less conservative and more moderate than other Americans, and less likely to identify with either party. Demographically, they are whiter, less educated, less wealthy and less religious than other Americans."

Reagan Dies

Former President Ronald Reagan "died Saturday at his home in Los Angeles," CNN reports. "He was 93."

"At least two of his children and his wife, Nancy, were at his bedside, according to the former president's Los Angeles office."

Small Donations Surge Via Internet

A Campaign Finance Institute study notes that "small contributions nearly tripled between 2000 and 2004, from $46 million to $123 million. This $77 million increase in small contributions accounts for 33% of the total increase in money between 2000 and 2004. Another way of putting this is that the Internet may well have been almost as important this year as the increased contribution limit."

For the entire cycle to date:

• John Kerry "has raised $32.1 million, or 30% of his total, in amounts of less than $200. In 2000, Al Gore raised 20% of his money in these smaller amounts."
• President Bush has raised $43.9 million, or 22% of his total, in amounts of less than $200. In 2000, Bush raised only 11% of his money in these smaller amounts.

Mining The Vote

"In this year's presidential election, political operatives are relying more than ever on" computerized database systems "to comb voters' histories and demographic data to find those supporters who will vote for and perhaps contribute to their cause," CIO magazine reports.

"Both parties have invested millions in central, state-of-the-art data warehouses, data mining software and Web-based user interfaces, creating arsenals of marketing tools that rival those of large corporations."

More State Polls

• Michigan: Kerry 47% Bush 43% (Survey USA)
• Connecticut: Kerry 46% Bush 36% (Quinnipiac)
• North Carolina Bush 48% Kerry 44% (Rasmussen)

Update:

• Virginia: Bush 47% Kerry 45% (Rasmussen)
• Pennsylvania: Bush 45% Kerry 44% (Rasmussen)
• Georgia: Bush 49% Kerry 32% (Insider Advantage)

Kerry and Bush Remain Deadlocked In New Poll

Sen. John Kerry and President Bush remain in a statistical tie among voters nationwide, according to a new American Research Group poll. Kerry is at 48% and Bush is at 46%. With Ralph Nader in the race, it is Kerry 46%, Bush 45%, and Nader 3%.

"Bush remains competitive with Kerry because Bush's ballot support among Republicans has rebounded from May. Bush, however, continues to lose support among independents in the latest survey."

Quote of the Day

"I know something about what levers of government to pull and how to get things done. I know something about bureaucratic resistance and leadership. I am a pretty good taskmaster."

-- Sen. John Kerry, quoted by USA Today.

Kerry Stresses National Security

"Mindful of what happened in the 2002 midterm elections, when many Democrats felt Republicans utterly controlled the debate over national security," Sen. John Kerry "has used the two-week window around Memorial Day to introduce himself, aggressively, as an alternative commander in chief," the New York Times reports.

"It is, in large part, a pre-emptive strategy. Mr. Kerry's advisers say they are well aware of the risks of challenging an incumbent president on foreign policy during a war."

USA Today notes that at the heart of Kerry's argument "for why Americans should make him president in a time of war is that he understands the world and Washington in a way that President Bush has failed to master."

Catholic Vote Up For Grabs

President Bush's meeting with the Pope "could cut both ways politically," the Wall Street Journal's Washington Wire reports.

"The president, hoping to blunt Kerry's edge among fellow Roman Catholics, welcomes the session with the aging pontiff. It also highlights the Catholic leader's opposition to the Iraq war and his veiled criticism of 'how dignity is profoundly offended' by Abu Ghraib abuses."

A must-read Knight Ridder piece notes Catholics are "the country's largest religious denomination, 65 million strong. They're a major presence in election-battleground states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania. And they're split evenly between Democrats and Republicans, the only denomination so closely divided."

The Way To Get Campaign Volunteers

From Time magazine's John Dickerson:

"What's the price for getting to shake hands with the President? Toiling away at the phone lines for an hour afterward, it seems. In exchange for a color-coded pass allowing access to positions along the rope line or choice seats for some Bush speeches, volunteers must agree to spend an hour after the event working the phones or knocking on doors to register voters and sign up Bush activists. Often there's no chance of escape: advance people design the speech area in such a way that the exit leads directly into the room with waiting phones."

New State Polls

Rasmussen Reports has released a batch of new state polls and more will be coming over the next few days:

• Oregon: Bush 46% Kerry 45%
• Missouri: Bush 44% Kerry 43%
• Georgia: Bush 51% Kerry 39%
• Illinois: Kerry 54% Bush 38%
• Ohio: Bush 46% Kerry 44%
• California: Kerry 49% Bush 41%
• Texas: Bush 55% Kerry 38%
• New York: Kerry 57% Bush 34%

One major caveat worth noting: The data was compiled from a national telephone survey of 15,000 likely voters from May 1-31, 2004 -- an entire month period.

Help Wanted

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Tenet Fallout

President Bush said he was sorry to see CIA Director George Tenet resign, "but there was immediate speculation that there was much more behind the departure," the New York Times reports.

"Bush announced the resignation in a way that was almost bizarre. He had just addressed reporters and photographers in a fairly innocuous Rose Garden session... Then the session was adjourned, as Mr. Bush apparently prepared to depart for nearby Andrews Air Force Base and his flight to Europe... But minutes later, Mr. Bush reappeared on the sun-drenched White House lawn, stunning listeners with the news of Mr. Tenet's resignation, which the president said would be effective in mid-July."

The Wall Street Journal says "the suddenness of his resignation led to immediate speculation that Mr. Bush has nudged him out. But CIA officials said that was not the case."

Josh Marshall adds: "All the chatter -- not to mention simple logic -- says he was fired."

Andrew Sullivan comments on the "personal reasons" that caused Tenet to step down: "Like he personally presided over two of the biggest CIA failures in modern history. Thank God Bush never actually fired him. That would mean taking responsibility, wouldn't it?"

The Washington Post's Robert Kaiser had instant analysis: "I don't think shock is warranted; in my view Tenet has been hanging by a string for a long time. When Bob Woodward's new book came out, describing how he had reassured an uncertain President Bush that the intel on Iraqi WMD was 'a slam dunk,' I cringed for him."

In Connecticut, Rowland Sees Evidence

Connecticut Gov. John G. Rowland's (R) political survival "appears to hinge on a stack of documents less than 2 feet tall and the testimony of as few as a dozen witnesses," the Hartford Courant reports.

"The House impeachment committee gave Rowland's lawyers those documents Wednesday, disclosing for the first time the exhibits and witnesses it intends to use at impeachment hearings that open next week."

The New York Times notes that "while the witness list may not reflect who actually will testify when public hearings begin on Tuesday, it does provide something of a guide to the issues the committee will investigate in proceedings expected to take no more than eight days."

Update: "Eighty-eight percent of Connecticut voters want Gov. John G. Rowland to testify before the legislative committee considering his impeachment," a Quinnipiac University poll found.

No Movie Deal For Lewinsky

Monica Lewinsky "is denying a report that she wants to make a movie" about her White House affair with President Bill Clinton, "in which she hopes she'd be played by Mandy Moore," the New York Daily News reports.

Democrats See Opportunity In House

The Washington Post notes that Stephanie Herseth's "narrow victory" South Dakota's special election "has Democrats talking of something that seemed unthinkable six months ago: the possibility of regaining the House majority this fall after a decade in the minority."

However, Reuters notes it will be tough: "Republicans now control the House, holding 228 of the 435 seats. All House seats will be up for election in November, when Democrats need to pick up 11 seats to regain control, but only three dozen of the races are seen as highly competitive.

"That means Democrats essentially have to hold their vulnerable seats and win most of the Republican ones to win control of the House, where incumbents have enjoyed a re-election rate of more than 95 percent in recent years."

Bush Campaign Mobilizes Churches

"The Bush campaign is seeking to enlist thousands of religious congregations around the country in distributing campaign information and registering voters," the New York Times reports.

USA Today notes the "religion gap" is "bigger, more powerful and growing." Voters who say "they go to church every week usually vote for Republicans. Those who go to church less often or not at all tend to vote Democratic."

Liberals Make Political Comeback

"On the defensive for more than a generation, the American left is seeing signs of political revival," the Wall Street Journal reports. "Recent polls show more Americans are calling themselves 'liberal' -- a term that had been considered something of an epithet -- and fewer are identifying themselves as 'conservative.' Liberal groups, from the National Organization for Women to Moveon.org, are enjoying a big fund-raising surge. The flagship publication of the left, the Nation, claims to have captured the highest circulation of any weekly political magazine."

Tracking Online Activism

ForwardTrack is a new system "designed to promote on-line activism. The system tracks and maps the diffusion of email forwards, political calls-to-action, and petitions."

"To use ForwardTrack, participants send the email to their friends AND back to our server. This makes it possible to track the email forward as it spreads through networks of friends. We also send people a link to a custom page where they can add themselves to a map charting the email as it spreads across the country."

Bush Hires Lawyer Over CIA Leak

President Bush "has consulted an outside lawyer in case he needs to retain him in the grand jury investigation of who leaked the name of a covert CIA operative last year," CBS News reports.

"In an exceptionally secretive process, a federal grand jury has been hearing testimony since January from dozens of administration and government officials. The probe is aiming to pin down the source of the leak that identified Valerie Plame, wife of former ambassador Joe Wilson, as an undercover CIA agent."

How To Win An Election

Because some of you asked, here are three useful books on running a political campaign:

• Running for Office: The Strategies, Techniques, and Messages Modern Political Candidates Need to Win Elections
• How to Win a Local Election: A Complete Step-By-Step Guide
• The Campaign Manager : Running and Winning Local Elections

If you know of others, please feel free to send them.

Running for Office: The Strategies, Techniques, and Messages Modern Political Candidates Need to Win Elections
Buy from Amazon.com for just $23.80

Bush Holds Slight Lead In Ohio

In Ohio, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds President Bush with 46% of the vote to 44% for Sen. John Kerry. The poll's margin of error is +/- 4%. In the 2000 election, Bush won Ohio by a margin of 50% to 46% over Al Gore.

In Alaska, Knowles Battles Back

In the Alaska Senate race, Tony Knowles (D) "has the lead back in a big way -- his largest lead of the campaign," according to a KTUU-TV poll. Knowles has 46% to Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R) 41%. The last poll had the race tied.

"For the seventh time in seven polls, Knowles' positive rating is higher than Murkowski's. And this is significant, because in a simplified sense, any political race is a beauty contest. The candidate that ends up in November with the higher rating will likely be the candidate that wins. And that's what political media is all about -- positive ads try to push a candidate's rating up, negative ads try to push an opponent's positive down."

A Debate Preview

Because presidential debates are so critical to the campaign process, it's never too early to handicap the participants. President Bush and John Kerry "can both boast of never having lost a debate," James Fallows writes, "though the two candidates rely on strikingly dissimilar sets of skills."

Bush "has thrived in this kind of competition for a deceptively simple reason: he is always on message."

For Kerry, his formal speeches "often seem to illustrate the main complaints about his style: that he is pompous-sounding and stiff. But these debates mainly make you think, This man knows a lot, he is fast, and he has an interesting mind."

Why Are Political Ads So Bad?

The Atlantic reviews the onslaight of political ads on television and notes:

"Being on the receiving end of all this can feel more like punishment than politics: not only do these ads arrive at an unrelenting pace, but they are nearly indistinguishable from one another. Every year, like clockwork, the same shopworn phrases are intoned against a flow of stock footage in identical, shoddily produced attacks ("My opponent says he's against terrorism—so why did he cut funding for our troops?") and counterattacks ("We need progress, not divisive attacks"), all narrated with the same portent-of-doom voice-over implying that a miscast vote for first selectman could imperil the republic. Most people would agree that televised political ads, almost without exception, are remorselessly bad."

Rove Looks To Past For Secrets

"Two years ago, White House political czar Karl Rove sent Matthew Dowd on a secret mission," the St. Petersburg Times reports.

"Dowd, a top Republican strategist, was sent to the libraries for presidents Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan and George Bush to study old memos, polling reports and organizational charts. His goal: to help the Bush-Cheney campaign learn the lessons of the past."

Among the mistakes Dowd discovered:

• Problems of unclear leadership (Bush 1992)
• Danger of failing to respond to voters' concerns (Ford 1976)
• Risk of starting late (Bush 1992)

"Those lessons have been incorporated into the Bush-Cheney campaign and can be seen in its early, aggressive start."

Bush's Management Style Shows Weaknesses

It turns out America's first CEO president has problems with his management style, the Washington Post reports.

"A variety of presidential advisers and scholars said the White House's failure to recognize the significance of the warnings points to flaws in Bush's approach to governing that also could have contributed to the administration's inadequate planning and inaccurate presentations in the run-up to the Iraq war."

For more on the problems of running government like a business, see my book, You Won - Now What?

In South Dakota, Herseth Wins Close Race

"It took until well into the morning before Democrat Stephanie Herseth could celebrate her special election win with 51 percent of the vote," KELO-TV reports. "Herseth becomes South Dakota's first congresswoman."

"Herseth fills the seat left open when Bill Janklow resigned in January. She and Diedrich run again in the November election for a full two-year term along with Libertarian Terry Begay."

South Dakota Results

The South Dakota Secretary of State's office will be posting results as they come in later tonight.

KELO-TV notes that because of "the high turnout and more absentee ballots than usual" it "may take longer than usual to get results."