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Public Opinion Research

TO:	Moore Information Clients & Friends
FROM:	Hans Kaiser & Bob Moore
RE:	Election 2004: Why Dean Can Win, September 2003

A recent article by David Brooks left readers with the distinct impression that Republican pollsters are all of the opinion that Howard Dean cannot possibly beat George Bush. We regret that he didn’t check with us first, as it is our belief that Dean has the potential to be a formidable candidate who could give the President a very difficult race.

The conventional wisdom that has some Republicans giddy about a potential Dean candidacy is not only misguided, it is counterproductive. Writing off a candidate like Dean by selectively sorting statistical gobble-de-gook and mixing it into a broth of “empirical” sociological evidence ignores the political realities of our time.

Howard Dean can win because he believes in what he is saying, because he can semi-legitimately spin his record as Governor into one of fiscal conservatism, and because he comes across as if he actually cares about people. We don’t know what the issues will be 14 months from now. Perhaps the economy will be rolling and the President will be soaring. If that’s the case, no one can beat him.

But there is the potential for the economy to remain sluggish and stagnant and conditions in the Middle East are impossible to predict. Should these situations remain status quo or worsen, America will be looking for someone new, someone fresh, someone who can shake America out of the doldrums and reinvigorate the body politic. Dean would provide solutions and excitement where the other Democrats, while perhaps polished and attractive, are not as convincing because they don’t have the perceived conviction of a Howard Dean.

Furthermore, if one makes the case that Bush could be vulnerable to the poofy John Kerry or the scintillating (yawn) Bob Graham, how can anyone write off Howard Dean? Because Graham can win Florida, he can win the White House? Well, Dr. Dean knows a little something about health care and there are a few folks in that state who have some stake in the issue. And let’s not forget the President’s noble efforts to reform Social Security, a demagogue’s dream in the Sunshine State.

Howard Dean has many qualities that make him a strong candidate, but the best way to judge his ability to win is simply to do the math. Below is a list of states we believe Howard Dean could win. We have broken them down into three columns. The first column is basically the Democrat base. The second column consists of Democrat leaners/swing states. The third column is Republican leaning states where Democrats have won in the recent past and could do so again.

Democrat Base		Democrat leaning/ swing states		Republican leaning
California	55	Iowa	7	Florida	27
Connecticut	7	Michigan	17	Missouri	11
Delaware	3	Minnesota	10	New Hampshire	4
Washington, D.C.	3	Nevada	5	Ohio	20
Hawaii	4	New Mexico	5
Illinois	21	Oregon	7
Maine	4	Pennsylvania	21
Maryland	10	West Virginia	5
Massachusetts	12	Wisconsin	10
New Jersey	15
New York	31
Rhode Island	4
Vermont	3
Washington	11
Electoral votes	183	Electoral votes	87	Electoral votes	62
Total	183	Total	270	Total	332

As you see, Dean can win even without Florida. Furthermore, of the 23 states that make up these 270 electoral votes, Bush only won two in 2002, squeaking by in Nevada but only getting 49.5% of the total vote, and winning West Virginia with 51.9%. With no significant opposition to Harry Reid in the Senate race and the nuclear repository issue alive and kicking, Nevada is going to be tough for the President. And West Virginia is a very Democrat state, where Dean’s willingness to work with the NRA on gun owners’ rights will go a long way toward deflecting the “liberal” charge.

Today there are four states that we would put in the lean Republican column but these states -- Florida, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio -- could go either way.

The remaining states give Bush a base of 206 electoral votes to start. Basically, it will be tough for any of the current candidates to wrest these states away from the President barring any catastrophic developments. Oh sure, if Wesley Clark is a Veep choice he might make Arkansas competitive, but overall, Bush will have a solid South through the Great Plains and Mountain States. So Bush starts with 206 and Dean starts with 183. Judge for yourself whether or not you think Dean could be formidable in the states above. Because as Al Gore learned in 2000, the popular vote doesn’t elect the President. The Electoral College does, and when you do the math, a Dean candidacy is a lot more realistic than people think.

The difference between Howard Dean and the rest of the Democrat candidates is that Dean comes across as a true believer to the base but he will not appear threatening to folks in the middle. More than any other candidate in the field, he will be able to present himself as one who cares about people (doctor), who balances budgets (governor), and who appears well grounded while looking presidential. To be sure, he doesn’t look that way to the GOP base, but that has no bearing on the election, because they will never vote for him anyway. He can appeal to the middle and Republicans can ignore his candidacy at our peril. We are whistling past the graveyard if we think Howard Dean will be a pushover.

Howard Dean’s appeal is closer to Ronald Reagan’s than any other Democrat running today. Granted, that’s not saying much with this field, but there are similarities here. The Democrat party used to chuckle about Reagan and his gaffes which they believed would marginalize him to the far right dustbin of history. But when his opponents tried to attack him for some of his more outlandish statements, the folks in the middle simply ignored them. Voters in the middle looked to the bigger picture where they saw a man of conviction who cared about them and had solutions for their problems. Howard Dean has the potential to offer a similar type candidacy.

Furthermore, the “far-left liberal” charge which Republicans have used effectively in the past to define Democrats has much less impact today than it used to. The problem here is that the GOP spent years warning America about the ills of a left-wing liberal Clinton presidency and how it would destroy the economy, ruin our children, and leave America a twisted wreck. Well, we survived and the economy actually did well during much of the Clinton years. America didn’t have a problem with Bill Clinton being a far-left liberal, they had a problem with his inability to tell the truth and his total lack of morals.

Certainly Dean has made some gaffes and needs a little more seasoning before the general election. But the only people paying attention right now are the diehards on the left and the right. The voters who will actually determine the outcome of the Presidential race are currently checked out. They couldn’t pick Howard Dean out of a police lineup. And you can be sure that when they do begin to pay attention they won’t be searching back issues of the Hotline or the National Journal to research the guy. That’s insider stuff that is totally lost on the great majority of voters in America.

When the nominee of the Democrat party is selected, voters will start to focus. By then, should he have the nomination in hand, Howard Dean will be billed as the “moderate fiscal watchdog this country needs…oh, and by the way, he won’t take away your guns.” And if the economy is still stagnant, and there is little progress in the Middle East, that could be plenty enough for him to win 270 electoral votes. Let us not be fooled by misguided conventional wisdom. Dean is a threat and Republicans better not ignore him.

Ironically, if he does get the nomination, Howard Dean’s biggest problem will be Bill and Hillary’s attempts to subvert his candidacy. They simply cannot afford to have another Democrat in the White House, in short, if Howard Dean is elected President, Hillary never will be. So, the Clinton’s will do whatever they must to make sure that doesn’t happen. So maybe Dean can’t win after all. But that’s another memo.