Compassion

If you've been reading Glenn Reynolds fairly regularly for the last month you will have found a weblog picking up stories on the genocidal horror that has long been the Sudan. Today IP links to Jim Moore, who adds up reasons for military intervention under this observation:

[I]n the past week both the US and UK governments have hinted at the possibility of military intervention in Sudan to stop the government's continued victimization of its people. The US government has undertaken a study to determine whether to officially declare the situation a "genocide" — which would mandate intervention under the 1948 UN treaty on genocide.

Note: I personally support declaring the situation a genocide and taking immediate military action. I think that a no-fly-zone would help a great deal in removing air support from Arab militias, and would cost very little. I believe that some selective positioning of troops would do a great deal to protect refugee camps and assure safe travel for aid organizations and supplies.

Help could begin there, with American armed forces serving a similar mission as in Haiti. Success would depend upon destroying the authoritarian culture and power structure, however. As in Iraq, Afghanistan, Haiti — wherever — intervention to disrupt and eliminate tyranny is an American interest. Freedom and human rights are meaningless if they apply only to a selection of nations, especially when those nations have the power to bring individual liberty and dignity to others. That stands beside the global threat posed by failed nations — Sudan, of course, was Osama bin Laden's patron in the mid-1990s. Isolationism was absurd when Franklin Delano Roosevelt gave his October 1937 "Quarantine the Aggressors" speech; it's on the level of bigotry now. Those who believe in an "international community" are obligated to help several million of their neighbors. Otherwise, what is the concept worth?

No-fly zones would be an excellent start. I was recently slapped with the Cold War slogan, "We can't take down every last despot." Well, not all at once, anyways.

Prologue

Mercy has kept the recent Coalition Provisional Authority poll in its place: a snapshot of opinions taken from a fraction of a country's population that may or may not serve as a key to understanding the entire country, only when considered alongside other surveys. It is at least the fourth major poll to be taken of and, in part, by Iraqis. This time the results are being reported as "grim," a remark borrowed from a diplomat, though it's unclear how some of the more murky opinions of the Average Iraqi Joe differ from previous polls — or are at all inconsistent with a people having lived without Saddam reading over their shoulders for barely a year, and having lived not a day without authoritarian interests from all around doing their worst with drive-bys and car bombs.

In September of last year, Karl Zinmeister and the American Enterprise Institute worked with Zogby International to poll Iraqis. What did they find in Iraqis? Optimism — for years ahead. Confusion about democracy, notwithstanding an intense curiosity. Iraqis disliked Islamism, al Qaeda or Saddam Hussein. They didn't care for occupation but were no fools about what separated them from murderous hoodlums with eyes peering out from behind pillowcases and scarves.

In March, after the capture of Saddam Hussein and a steady decline in terrorist violence, Oxford International set about polling and discovered essentially the same opinions. Special to this survey was a separation of opinions into demographics: Iraqi Kurds having spent ten, not just one, year under American protection were overwhelmingly supportive and deferential to postwar difficulties. Sunnis and Shiites were once again torn between "humiliation" and "liberation," between the Arabist nonsense they'd been fed for decades and the strange thing called "freedom" people were ending up dead over. What is this freedom, many must have wondered. That three-quarters of the 2,000 polled Iraqis saw joining a political party or peacefully demonstrating just as likely a proposition as using violence tells us two things: First, one year of gradual improvement laced with wraiths from the past does nothing to wash away years of totalitarian culture, and it's absurd to think otherwise. Second, if demonstrations are not yet within the courage of most Iraqis, who are those men whipping themselves with chains, portraits of al-Sadr held high? Surely not a representative group.

Confidence in foreign forces was low: 39%, 28% and 25% for the now-defunct Governing Council, the CPA and Anglo-American forces, respectively. But 77% said they'd never actually interacted with soldiers, and Iraqis still weren't ready to see foreigners go. And most striking was the grudging happiness: nearly three-quarters of Iraqis were pleased with their lives, difficulties notwithstanding, and just as many looked to better — not similar or worse — times in the future.

One month later, Gallup released a large-sample survey that underscored and extended Oxford's conclusions. No Kurd in his right mind wanted to return to the Saddamite nightmare; Sunnis and Shiites weren't happy with the occupation, but they weren't crazy, either. As in March, Kurdish autonomy better equipped them for early-democratization hardships. Arabs were sternly critical of the CPA but had nothing to complain about in terms of an improved quality of life. Near East pride reared its head as most Arabs felt occupied while Kurds felt liberated. But virtually no one believed that they would be candidly expressing opinions to Gallup for a global audience had the Allies not deposed Saddam Hussein. And once again, about one out of twenty Arabs had ever met the soldiers their majority condemned.

The latest poll, taken towards the end of the Khomeinist-Ba'athist offensive, picks up where the three before it left off. Iraqis' faith in the Coalition Provisional Authority is still scant (which could be, in a light-hearted way, a good portent for the future of Iraqi libertarians). Respondents call their circumstance occupation.

Two results seem to be misunderstood by the Washington Times report I quote. An increase in positive opinion for Muqtada al-Sadr is billed as troubling, as is the conviction that his disastrous insurrection helped to unify the country. Is this so bad? There's another response the report offered, billing al-Sadr as less popular for executive power than Saddam Hussein himself. Can't we put this together? Muqtada al-Sadr, from the Iraqi perspective, has at least temporarily laid down his arms and sent his merry band of street vermin home. While his gangs were wiped out by Allied forces, his political defeat has come largely from Shiite religious and secular forces joining against him — "join" a synonym of "unify." A shared threat to Iraq's toddler-wobbly common good brought people together for purposeful action. One could similarly say actions of Osama bin Laden helped to unify America, and then misinterpret negatively.

Is there anything wrong with Iraqis? Or the occupation? No — democratization, we've learned, is a wonderful but bittersweet thing, Iraq's made no easier by its terror-culture neighbors. In Tokyo, Douglas MacArthur could always rely on the Japanese public to support his most sweeping reforms when conservatives in the Diet refused to budge. But the Supreme Commander of Allied Powers was running an occupation, after all, and it was not easy or quick or especially appreciated by the Japanese people, despite their fascination with all things Western. Extremism abounded in those first years as much of the population lived in a want and insecurity like that of Iraq. The last effective day of occupation, April 28, 1952, was ordinary and unspecial; simply the formal end to a state out of which the country had finally grown.

One year ago I wrote about parallels between the two American occupations, and where the limits of our influence cross with a real responsibility for Iraqis to use pride, humility, trust and autonomy, each at the right moments. It's no small task, and as Wretchard warned yesterday there will be no CPA to blame. Here is part of what I wrote:

[T]he troubles of post-war Japan must not be taken lightly: suffering and confusion of the Iraq people will be at once unique in its aesthetics (the evil of regionally cultural anarchists and terrorists) and universal in its effect (potential [paralysis]). The country will most likely remain dangerously uncertain of its course and worth for some time. But, second, and more encouraging, is the record of Japan's transcendence. While all nations walk in their own Valley of the Shadow of Death, every one is capable of defeating their worst imperfections.

The Allies will be a source of endless logistics and guidance, if only those resources can be utilized by Iraqis. To this, all that is needed is patience and perseverance and faith.

President Bush has said many times that Iraqis have "a friend in America." Unless domestic politics shift to the party and classes of representation that feel no great urge to fight terror and dictatorship, to talk about freedom but whine when it doesn't come gift-wrapped, that friendship will remain strong; the "logistics and guidance" will continue no matter how poorly we are initially or ultimately received, or if our intentions are misunderstood. Friendship stands even when buffeted, lousy poll or not. There is more to all of this than brownouts and lurking terror. The Kurds can and should encourage their reluctant Arab countrymen of that.

Spearhead

In Cleveland, weather goes from curious to downright ugly and dangerous in moments. Speaking of photographs, the Albany Excursion will be online this weekend. Right now, I'm battening down the hatches.

Give a Timeserver a Soapbox...

In the spirit of David Wong: Here's my personal expresson of disgust with the 9/11 Commission and its accompanying media circus. And really, which is more incredible — the second-guessing at taxpayer expense or the ditty I've got here? The NYFD wasn't ready for two jetliners to plunge into skyscrapers? The Air Force doesn't daily practice shooting down passenger jets? For more, start here and discover how much political asininity you can stomach.

Looking for the Worst

Remember the refugee crises that were predicted to happen in Afghanistan and Iraq if the United States led depositions of the Taliban and Ba'athists, respectively? Craig Brett found a news report: not only were there no catastrophes, crises, pickles, quagmires or instances of the regrettable variety, both countries have become havens for those dislocated since their liberation. This was only after the world saw unprecedented humanitarian efforts finely coordinated with Allied military maneuvers. So much for anti-interventionist hyperbole — of course, we can just wait until Iran's mullahs or Syria's Ba'athists are slated to be removed by the Allies before the chorus wails go up again.

Speaking the Language

Did I have a hand in this? A couple of months ago I sent an e-mail to Iraqi blogger Zeyad, asking him about the place of tribalism in modern Iraq; I had happened upon a World Book Encyclopedia from the mid-1960s and read that even then, tribal society was generally sequestered from the growing urban areas. For whatever reason — perhaps others inquired alongside me — Zeyad now has three concentrated essays on Iraq's tribal and familial politics. I haven't had the time to read them yet but if you've got a spare forty-five minutes, they're here, here and here.

Interesting stuff, indeed. I believe that a nation's culture can't be judged or accepted definitively if it has existed only under a rule of the strong and modern authoritarianism — every institution in society would be drawn from a coarse lifestyle based on power and violence instead of democracy's valuations of popularity and civil discourse — and that the true character of a people will only mature when living freely. Germany, Eastern Europe, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries exemplify this. But Iraq's present condition is the one with which Allied troops and Iraqi democrats must begin. We're best off understanding it.

A Day in That Life

Japanese politics might be "the game across the street," but its players could teach ours a thing or two about gumption and color. Here's femme fatale Makiko Tanaka on Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi:

"He is like a street performer," she told reporters. "He will do various things like juggling, breathing fire and riding a unicycle, but when things go against him, he just folds up his wrapping cloth and withdraws."

Such talent! Tanaka, as you may recall, switched from the Liberal Democratic Party to the Democratic Party of Japan after falling out with LDP leadership and has no shortage of sour grapes. Koizumi, meanwhile, has presided over Japan's most remarkable progress as a benevolent world power, as well as an economic boom that even the most cautious observers believe is no happy accident:

Japan's economy is "gathering strong momentum" as rising corporate profits generate job growth, the central bank said in its monthly report, adding it was more optimistic about the outlook for the first time since April.

"Rising production and corporate profits are starting to spread to the labour market," Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said in Tokyo. The bank yesterday dropped the word "gradual" from its description of a recovery for the first time since the nation's asset price bubble burst in 1991.

Prime Minister Koizumi bested a no-confidence vote thrown at him by the DPJ and two other minority parties, and seems likely to continue his slow drive toward bank and market reform. The game goes on.

Happy Treads

In case you missed it: NASA has compressed Opportunity's voyage across the surface of Mars into a still-frame animation. Want to see your tax dollars hard at work? Take a look at "90 Sols in 90 Seconds."

Smuggling

On the heels of a news report from several weeks ago few read or heard , another breakthrough on discovering the nature of Saddam Hussein's thirst for the most powerful weapons:

On June 9, [Acting Executive Chairman of United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission] Demetrius Perricos announced that before, during and after the war in Iraq, Saddam Hussein shipped weapons of mass destruction and medium-range ballistic missiles to countries in Europe and the Middle East. Entire factories were dismantled and shipped as scrap metal to Jordan, the Netherlands and Turkey, among others, at the rate of about 1,000 tons of metal a month. As an example of speed by which these facilities were dismantled, Perricos displayed two photographs of a ballistic missile site near Baghdad, one taken in May 2003 with an active facility, the other in February 2004 that showed it had simply disappeared.

What passed for scrap metal and has since been discovered as otherwise is amazing. Inspectors have found Iraqi SA-2 surface-to-air missiles in Rotterdam — complete with U.N. inspection tags — and 20 SA-2 engines in Jordan, along with components for solid-fuel for missiles. Short-range Al Samoud surface-to-surface missiles were shipped abroad by agents of the regime. That missing ballistic missile site contained missile components, a reactor vessel and fermenters — the latter used for the production of chemical and biological warheads.

"The problem for us is that we don't know what may have passed through these yards and other yards elsewhere," Ewen Buchanan, Perricos's spokesman, said. "We can't really assess the significance and don't know the full extent of activity that could be going on there or with others of Iraq's neighbors."

...The implications of the United Nations' discovery of how Hussein's regime got rid of many of its banned weapons programs is staggering, especially considering that it happened partly under the watch of U.N. weapons inspectors. And yet many in the media are either unwilling or unable to break out of their cycle of waiting to report the next terrorist attack. The truth about the justification for the war and Saddam Hussein's Iraq is gradually being revealed to the world, but it seems our journalists don't want to tell the story.

There's more to the article, all of it worth your time. At first glance, it seems bizarre that Saddam would surreptitiously dismantle weapons and manufacturing sites, rather than proudly and openly to draw attention to feigned cooperation. As I surmised shortly after his capture, however, Saddam is a survivor. It can't be underestimated how confident the brutal old man would be in his ability to strip out as much incriminating material as possible, patiently gain political support for his release from international attention and then quietly rebuild his arsenal.

A skeptic could argue that, indeed, these aren't stockpiles that have become the chattering classes' white elephant to wave in front of the Bush administration. But then, the WMD case was one of several reasons to depose Saddam Hussein, and the weapons threat extended far beyond existing stockpiles — in fact, Saddam's capability and intent to produce anew were major Clinton and Bush White House arguments, corroborated by Iraqi Survey Group leader David Kay's final report. Nor has Iraq been fully canvassed, or the Syrian connection explored to any degree. And a skeptic is likely to be a bureau-internationalist, a strong supporter of UN-mandated international law; so what of the fact that every one of these discoveries, including those from Kay's report, exposes Saddam's flagrant violation of Resolution 1441 and every resolution that came before it? An agreement is an agreement, and laws matter, especially with the United Nations, right? Right?

The article ends with a critical turn on the press. That's fair and accurate — a heartbreaking reality at this point in Iraq's reconstruction is the transformation of leftist rhetoric, purposely or carelessly, into urban myth. But more importantly, as I heard mentioned earlier today: when will we hear from the president on this? Lies, like the one trying to bury years of irrefutable evidence against Saddam, don't fall down their own.

Pall Mall

After today's lunch I dropped in on the nearby Kohl's to pick up some "necessaries." Exiting after my purchase, I stumbled on a rare sight: a tiny old woman, decked out in scrubbed-white walking gear, snuffing her smoke out on the metal sides of the butt-bin just outside the door so she could keep it for later. I'd only seen that once before, about eighteen years ago, when an old man in a bank vestabule gingerly put out his cigarette with his thumb and forefinger before walking inside.

I break with social conservatives, I suppose, in feeling no great urge to protest city and state agencies as they prohibit the nasty habit out of existence. Did I miss asking for non-smoking seating every time Ed, Paul and I dined in Albany? Not a chance. I've been contemptuous of the industry since I figured it out at age three. [Don't laugh. I did!] But watching an old generation treat their tobacco as they did sixty or seventy years ago when they first learned — preciously — is enough to give a nod to tradition.

Now it Comes?

I received a forwarded news report from Iranian freedom advocate Banafsheh Zand-Bonazzi — and it's troubling. My heart skipped a beat when I first read it. But we've known our enemies since the days right after Saddam's statue fell. Here it is:

Iran reportedly is readying troops to move into Iraq if U.S. troops pull out, leaving a security vacuum.

The Saudi daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat, monitored in Beirut, reports Iran has massed four battalions at the border.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat quoted "reliable Iraqi sources" as saying, "Iran moved part of its regular military forces towards the Iraqi border in the southern sector at a time its military intelligence agents were operating inside Iraqi territory."

Though the Iranian people are our friends and mutual admirers, their rulers seek empowerment, failure of a free Iraq and America's destruction. (To think those of us who suggested using military power last year to keep Iran and Syria, associate architects of Iraq's troubles, in check were accused of being "cavalier.") If you haven't considered this war a war against Near East dictatorships as well, that the freedom offered by a nation speaks conversely to its danger to us — now's the time to wake up.

Right Answer, Wrong Question

Color me unsurprised. Mickey Kaus on the Los Angeles Times poll showing Kerry with a seven-point lead:

Here's what I learned: The party breakdown in the LAT poll was 38% Democratic, 25% Republican, 24% Independent. That's about the same as the 38/19/26 breakdown of a year ago, but it's a big increase in Democrats since March of this year, when they were only 33 percent of the sample. Pinkus argues her latest numbers are not that different from a recent ABC poll that she said showed Democrats with a 37/27 percent edge. And she says her overall horse-race result isn't much different from the latest Gallup poll, which had Kerry up 6 in a three-way race.

If Pinkus' numbers are similar to other mainstream media polls, then we can be fairly sure about two things. First, respondent pools are consistent not only between polls but poll companies themselves; second, these polls are consistently skewed in favor of Democrats. In September of last year, a Gallup poll meant to spotlight Bush's weakness against Democratic contenders like Wesley Clark was found as being stacked with Democrats. It happened to be released just as Roll Call editor Mort Kondrake and Democratic Leadership Council big-name Al From made their independent cases for American political realignments — to the tune of 20% Democratic and 30-35% Republican, a near-reverse of Pinkus' numbers. Far from its original intent, the September poll showed White House competitiveness for Blue States like California, where Bush enjoyed a lead in one poll and is at least well-represented by Scott Rasmussen's respected tracking. In fact, the Rasmussen standings from California — where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a 45%-to-35%-margin — looks an awful lot like the LA Times' purported national poll.

First the editorial page, then the front page — now their opinion polls? Until mainstream agencies change target survey demographics to reflect the country, think California.

BONUS: Speaking of the Golden State, conventional wisdom holds that the state's market and its people's perception thereof is America's harbinger of good or bad times both. What to make of their excitement about tomorrow's business? Maybe the good weather's talking. Or maybe nearly a year of solid economic news is begining to take hold.

Jiggedy-Jig

Home again, home again. My third in as many years, this trip to Albany was as fun as it was different than 2002's and 2003's. Less video games. More photography. And, for the first time, temperate weather. Sun, a first!

I'm a bit tired and hungry — even for a record-breaking drive of seven hours and thirty minutes. I also have somewhere to be for church this evening; and having spent four days away from just about all but two glances at Google News headlines, catching up on news will be a high-traffic merge. Rest assured, a multimedia telling of this year's Albany Excursion will be up soon. If the Excursion is new to you, educate yourself by reading about the first and second.

Up to Old Albanee

Twas on a jolly summer's morn, the twenty-first of May,
Giles Scroggins took his turmut hoe with which he trudged away;
For some delights in hay-makin' and some they fancies mow-in',
But of all the jobs that I likes best give I the turmut hoe-in'

Cho: For the fly, the fly, the fly be on the turmut
And it be all me eye for I to try to keep fly off the turmut.

Now the first place as I went to work it were for farmer Tower,
He vowed and sweared and then declared I were a first-rate hoe-er.

The second place as I went to work I took it by the job
But if I'd 'a knowed a second afore I'd sooner be in quod.

As I was workin' at yonder farm they sent for I a-mow-in,
I sent word back I'd sooner have the sack than lose my turmut hoe-in'.

Now all you jolly farmin' lads as bides at home so warm
I now concludes my ditty with wishing you no harm.

— The Turmont Hoer's Song, Traditional

Rest Easy

It was a long day today after a minor family medical crisis arose. It's over — everything's okay. But we're all a little winded. An armchair would be suitable for an evening like this, literal or figurative:

The Mainichi Shimbun is running their annual Visual Nippon summer contest, one of the fine entries featured here. The challenge? Submit a picture that clearly says "Japan." The prizes? Several, all worth your time.

No Match; But They Can Do 'Bully'; Gratitude; It Comes Naturally

Going Ballistic

Dallas-based Iraqi blogger Fayrouz found a story about Iraqi women learning the art of defining trajectories for high-velocity plumbum:

The first time the women at the paramilitary training camp here went for shooting practice most were nervous, some started crying and others did not want to pick up the guns. Nearly four weeks later, Shemaa Jasem, 22, held up her paper target showing three small holes near the bull's-eye, and was disgusted. "Bad shooting today," she said. ...Where the mood was once anxious, it has become jovial. Two of the women were shooting Saturday while the others sat on the ground chatting cheerfully.

Mrs. Jasem, a former factory worker from Baghdad whose sister Sondas, 33, also was going through training, said she was proud of what she was doing. Most of the women refused to give their full names for security reasons.

"This is a good thing for my country, going against the terrorists and the bad guys," she said. "My mother and father are very happy. I want to join the American Army one day. "Wherever I go, I tell people that I work for the ICDC and the coalition forces."

Not only are Iraqis learning the vital role of civilians responsibly carrying arms to defend family, property and country but women are invited to participate as equals. It's as if people in a foreign culture had inspected, experienced and finally adopted a democratic concept once alien to them! Someone tell Jacques Chirac.

Not Good Enough?

French President Jacques Chirac, always eager to make a buck off of a mass murderer, on asserting democracy:

There is no ready-made formula for democracy readily transposable from one country to another. Democracy is not a method, it is a culture. For democracy to take root solidly and durably in the Arab world, it must be an Arab democracy before all else.

History is either irrelevant or inconvenient to Chirac's Politique Arabe de France, the Gallic art of doing business with strongmen. As an Iranian caller to Rush Limbaugh's program once observed, "Europe invests in governments; so in the Near East, they invest in dictators. America invests in people, and they do that by freeing them." In response to the amoral excuse for keeping entire nations in chains, the claim that democracy can't be established by instruction, Germany and Japan — two of the world's most dangerous fascist states before being beaten and societally reshaped by America to become two of the world's strongest democracies — ably disprove.

Red-and-White Checker

The cookies came out picture-perfect (just how they ended up as that is a little secret). My Republican organization's picnic was terrific: braving scattered thunderstorms our little group met, talked, dined and listened to a female barbershop quartet called Notability — let me tell you, you haven't seen stage presence and musicality until you're brought back to styles that are leaning on seventy-five years. Everyone enjoyed themselves, including the entertainment; the contralto "bass" even offered words of tribute to Ronald Reagan's legacy. Notability's songs were barely on the final note before our club was clapping and hollering, sending them off with a final, standing ovation. We all went home happy, a song in our heads and a few pounds of hot dog meat in our bellies. And very possibly two new members greater. If I drank, I'd be popping open a Miller right now.

A&W; Root Beer will do. Evening!

The King, Refused

One month ago, in praising Allied accomplishments in Iraq, I noted the unresolved nature of Fallujah:

As the Marine Corps made clear in Fallujah, insurgents were utterly outmatched and their position in the Golan neighborhood stood at the mercy of an American initiative. Whatever reprieve the Ba'athists gained after days of heavy losses began — and thus can end — at our forces' choosing.

The Marines are to be congratulated, having averted what from all accounts was an inevitable high-casualty showdown in that northwest Golan neighborhood. Since then they have been making generous overtures to the people and moderate political leadership inside the city, recognizing the indefinition between heartfelt support for Saddam Hussein and Arabist rule-of-the-strong and forced exclamations of allegience by a terrified populace in a long-troubled city.

The military's previously light-handed treatment of Fallujah worked to deny them initiative and political encouragement they enjoyed from an overwhelming majority of Iraqis for the demolition of southern Khomeinist insurgent Muqtada al-Sadr. For a month, the American-led occupation publicly provided the violent men of Fallujah an opportunity for relative clemency and an invitation to join the new Iraq. The outstretched hand has been knocked away:

Reports say that insurgents today launched mortar attacks against Iraqi security forces in the town of Al-Fallujah, reportedly causing casualties. Details are still sketchy. Earlier reports said that U.S. tanks were gathering outside the town.

If true, a military buildup and eventual killing blow — the one intended for weeks ago — is altogether appropriate and necessary. For over thirty days, for the whole of Iraq and the world to see, the Ba'athist-Syrian-terrorist combine was given a chance. Could we have expected hardened criminals and murderous fanatics, "souped up on jihad," to act like civilized men? Hardly. The Marines knew who would join and who would humor. But the case for a warrant has been built, if not to convince the skeptics and terror sympathists, than to discredit them; and to reassure that Iraqi people that their past — and premonition of failure — lies in the black hearts of Fallujah. As with al-Sadr, the Allies have their answer, and must choose to end the reprieve here and now.