A Modest Proposal
22 June, 2004
Surprise, surprise, Germany has joined France in insisting that the next president of the European Commission must be from a country in the EU's "core area" - ruling out British, Nordic or central European candidates for the job.
Of course, this narrows the field to mostly Old European nations, who have been in the EU for decades and have signed up to integrationist policy such as the Single Currency.
Like France's president Chirac, Gerhard Schröder believes that a candidate from the EU's inner core would be more sympathetic to the often paradoxical Franco-German dynamic which demands more integration while breaking EU legislation it disapproves of.
The Telegraph reports that installing an Old European president would allow France and Germany to retain control over the pace and direction of EU integration.
Of course, the French and Germans shouldn't care so much about where a president comes from: EU commissioners are meant to be above national politics. The fact that few are able to ignore demands from their home governments demonstrates clearly the lack of confidence in EU institutions even at the highest level.
Ireland's Bertie Ahern might be a suitable candidate, though perhaps too wily for Chirac and Schröder. Ahern says he doesn't want the job anyway, which may be a fine example of his renowned wiliness or may simply mean he doesn't want the job.
Failing that, one name does spring to EURSOC's mind. He comes from a Eurozone single currency nation which has been in the EU since the union's inception. He is a prime minister - though his term may conveniently be approaching its end. He is a well-known figure in the European Parliament. Federalists will be delighted to know that he definitely believes in a power higher than his nation's judges. Best of all, his actions and demeanour embody the EU and its institutions better than any other European politician.
How could Chirac and Schröder resist Silvio Berlusconi for president?
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EU Constitution Analysed
22 June, 2004
Richard North of the EU Referendum Blog has produced a point by point analysis of the Constitution. You can download Richard's comments in pdf format here.
The file is being hosted by Francis Turner, who has added some interesting comments on the treaty to his blog.
Readers Comments
22 June, 2004
More views from EURSOC readers. Today, Jon Livesey sees a bleak future in European opposition to US foreign policy.
Quote Of The Day
21 June, 2004
"A Europe defined in contradiction to the United States has found no new life in what is now the EU's draft constitution. And, as importantly, after a summit meeting that followed a strikingly unenthusiastic election for the European Parliament, no legitimacy is at hand for a Europe whose powers or vision of itself would go beyond the very clearly delineated caution of its peoples."
- The always reliable John Vinocur gets the measure of federalist disarray after the Brussels summit (International Herald Tribune).
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Media War Begins
21 June, 2004
Most commentators agree that securing a deal on the EU constitution was the easy part: Selling it to an increasingly sceptical British public will be much tougher.
Prime Minister Tony Blair admitted as much in a television interview yesterday, but the true scale of opposition to the treaty is only beginning to become clear. Today his campaign begins in Britain's parliament, where he will give a statement to the Commons at 3.30. Blair is certain to dismiss demands from opposition leader Michael Howard, who claims a referendum on the treaty be called as soon as possible.
This is another opportunistic error from Howard, of the kind that is becoming all too familiar. There is no good reason why Blair should call a referendum so soon: Few members of the public - never mind the press, or Britain's politicians - will have fully digested the implications of the treaty yet. Calling for an early vote supports Eurofanatic claims that the public's hostility to the constitution is based on ignorance and media distortion, and that once a full debate is allowed to take place, British Eurorealism will give way to acceptance, if not enthusiasm for the EU.
EURSOC believes that the more that voters learn about the treaty and its implications, the less likely they will be to support it. So should Howard, if he is truly convinced of its faults.
The New Dark Ages
21 June, 2004
Europe's Anti-American fanatics believe that without the influence of the United States, the world would be a happy family of peaceful, prosperous nations.
They hope that a multipolar world would bring peace. In reality, according to historian Niall Ferguson, a power vacuum is just as likely to follow a decline in US influence: Sudan, Rwanda and North Korea would be more likely models than Denmark, Switzerand or New Zealand:
"If the U.S. is to retreat from the role of global hegemon--its fragile self-belief dented by minor reversals--its critics must not pretend that they are ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony. The alternative to unpolarity may not be multipolarity at all. It may be a global vacuum of power. Be careful what you wish for."
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Constitution Deal Stitched Up
19 June, 2004
Last night, leaders of the EU's 25 nations agreed a final text to the European Constitution treaty.
The agreement came after two days of tough negotiations, which themselves followed six months of quietly urgent diplomacy by Ireland, holder of the current EU presidency.
Both nation-staters and federalists are claiming a win - a sure sign that all is not well for voters.
Britain's Tony Blair emerged from the negotiations triumphant, claiming that he not only faced down last-minute Franco-German axis attempts to claw back concessions he had won, but that he had also scuppered Belgium's Guy Verhofstadt's campaign for the European Commission Presidency.
For his part, Jacques Chirac, who left the negotiations on Thursday after complaining that British obstinacy lay in the way of Constitution success, flatly contradicted Blair, warning that the treaty created "a federation of states and peoples."
Chirac added that he regretted Britain's retention of the veto on taxation, but that it "would happen anyway."
Regulator Censures Fox
19 June, 2004
US news channel Fox News has been censured by Britain's media regulator Ofcom for broadcasting a tirade against the BBC.
EURSOC readers will remember fondly John Gibson's fiery criticism of the Beeb on one of Fox's op-ed style slots following the Hutton enquiry. The enquiry found the BBC guilty of several counts of dodgy reporting.
Accusing the BBC of "frothing at the mouth anti-Americanism" Gibson claimed that the broadcaster "Felt entitled to lie and, when caught lying, felt entitled to defend its lying reporters and executives."
Ofcom's report, according to the Economist, accused Fox of "failing to show respect for the truth."
Presidency Row Continues
18 June, 2004
Britain is leading the resistance against Franco-German plans to install Belgium's PM Guy Verhofstadt as president of the European Commission.
This is curious: Tony Blair must have a real grudge against Verhofstadt, who went from a "man we could do business with" to a fierce rival overnight when he aligned himself with Paris and Berlin in the build up to the Iraq war.
True, Verhofstadt is famed for his slavish devotion to the Franco-German axis and is guaranteed to give Jacques Chirac and Gerhard Schröder an easy ride over broken EU regulations.
He is an anti-American, and dreams of an EU army to replace NATO. He is also a fanatical federalist, which is reason enough for any sensible person to object to his candidacy. He recently called for aid to be cut to central European nations who refused to raise corporate tax to Belgian levels.
Furthermore, he has the additional bonus of being loathed in his own country, where his party was voted into third place in last week's Euro-elections. Rejection by voters is definitely a job requirement in Brussels - promoting failed politicans like Chris Patten and Neil Kinnock to powerful commission posts demonstrates to voters the Eurofanatic maxim that Brussels always knows better than the public.
But late last month, tied up with negotiations to secure his red lines, Blair appeared to soften his line on Verhofstadt. Appointing a Franco-German puppet to the presidency would seem a small price to pay for British vetos in taxation, foreign policy, social policy, finance and criminal law.
Suddenly Blair has changed his mind once more - even though he claims to have protected his vetos. Foreign minister Jack Straw told reporters today that Britain considered the Verhofstadt campaign over - and had even offered Chris Patten as a candidate.
Chirac Attacks Britain
18 June, 2004
As EU constitution negotiations reach a climax, French president Jacques Chirac has launched an extraordinary attack on Britain's unwillingness to sign up for an EU superstate.
Speaking at a press conference in Brussels, Chirac fumed that "one country" stood in the way of full agreement on the constitution:
"The ambitions foreseen are reduced, especially on tax and social security, by the clear position of the United Kingdom. This will be a real problem, which will have to be discussed tomorrow (Friday)."
Chirac's outburst comes amid rumours that Germany and France are planning to block or at least attempt to claw back concessions Tony Blair won on Britain's national vetos. Earlier this week, the Irish presidency of the EU presented Britain with a draft treaty which preserved two of Britain's red lines and installed murky "emergency brakes" on several other contentious items.
Constitution Conference Begins
17 June, 2004
Europe's top ministers are in Brussels today for final negotiations on the EU constitution treaty.
The mood among supporters of the constitution is said to be optimistic: UK insiders are claiming that Tony Blair's negotiating team have secured deals to protect Britain's "red lines" on taxation and employment laws. However, some wonder what he has had to give away in return, in what The Sun described yesterday as a "damage limitation exercise" for British sovereignty.
Elsewhere there are doubts that some new member states, particularly Poland, will be able to agree on voting rights.
Reader's Comments
17 June, 2004
The Independent, obviously rattled by the scale of Britain's anti-EU vote, published a list of how the UK would suffer if we were to withdraw from the European Union.
EURSOC reader Jon Livesey saw through some of the Indie's points right away: The Independent's claims in Italics, Jon's in plain text below.
History In The Making
15 June, 2004
Pulling out of Europe is now firmly on the menu of British politics. The implications could be far and wide.
Thanks to the meteoric rise of the UK Independence Party, the unthinkable has suddenly become a real possibility: Leaving the European Union has become an option for Britain.
Both Tony Blair's Labour and the opposition Tories have been caught short by underestimating the hostility to the EU in the country. Worse, both parties tried to rubbish the growing support for the UKIP. This risky strategy backfired - rather than cut off support for the UK IP, mainstream parties created an angry backlash against traditional British policy on Europe.
Europe's New Divide
15 June, 2004
Academics are usually quite slow on the uptake but one Jean-Philippe Roy of Tours University in France has spotted a trend that Eurocrats have tried their best to ignore.
Speaking in the Herald Tribune, he says, "(The European parliament) elections have brought to the fore a new political divide in Europe - the pro and anti-European divide, which transcends the traditional left-right gap."
Roy's comments come as the EU establishment licks its wounds after election results most Eurofanatics agree are dismal. The lowest turnout ever for a European election (continuing a downward trend) saw voters use the poll not to fall behind a grand vision of Europe but to punish national governments for national issues.
The misery was compounded by the vast majority of new member states registering turnouts even lower than the already poor EU-15 average.
Furthermore, when voters weren't supporting mainstream opposition parties, they fell behind Eurorealist parties dedicated to causing even more trouble for Federalists - most spectacularly in the UK.
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