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June 26, 2004
Imagine what'll happen if they get to the final...big parties in Athens as Greece head to the Euro 2004 semi-finals
June 24, 2004
One of the choicest paragraphs, from a choice review of Bill Clinton's autobiography: "That somehow a long, dense book by the world's premier policy wonk should be worth that much money is amusing, and brings us back to Clinton's long coyote-and-roadrunner race with the press. The very press that wanted to discredit him and perhaps even run him out of town instead made him a celebrity, a far more expensive thing than a mere president. Clinton's now up there with Madonna, in the highlands that are even above talent. In fact, he and Madonna may, just at the moment, be the only ones way up there, problems having arisen with so many lesser reputations." If the Times link has expired, try here.
June 22, 2004
At the risk of turning this column into 'what Henry Farrell's written recently', he has a good piece on CT about the role of the European Parliament in international affairs.
June 19, 2004
Amongst all the other decisions made at the summit, Croatia is now an official EU candidate state. Talks are scheduled to begin next year with an aim of the Croats joining alongside Romania and Bulgaria in 2007.
June 18, 2004
Over at Crooked Timber, Henry Farrell assesses the candidates for President of the European Commission
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May 26, 2004
Die Duckomenta - eine Ausstellung
![](http://library.vu.edu.pk/cgi-bin/nph-proxy.cgi/000100A/http/web.archive.org/web/20040628044202im_/http:/=2fpedantry.fistfulofeuros.net/images/fahne.jpg)
What else can I say? In the words of The Wall Street Journal Europe:
This Exhibit Is No Featherweight, so You Better Duck.
(via Electrolite)
May 10, 2004
3G Update
Well following my post last week about Vodaphone and 3G in Europe there seems to be more news today that backs-up the argument questioning the economic viability of the thing.
Firtsly shares of NTT DoCoMo, the world’s No. 2 mobile-phone and the leading 3G operator, just had their biggest one-day drop ever after the company said operating profit may drop 25 percent and sales may fall (by 2.5%) this year on more competition in Japan.
Meantime Investment bank Nomura are predicting that Hutchison Whampoa could walk away from its loss-making 3G mobile business by end 2006. Their analyst reckons HW could rack-up operating losses of about $2.7 billion this year simply on the 3G operation alone.
Normura failed to see how Hutchison 3G (H3G) can achieve an economic return on capital and value the company at a negative HK$63 billion. “Our Hutchison Whampoa estimates include an assumption that the company walks away from its 3G ventures by the end of the full year of 2006,” James said.
The survival of 3 Italia was also called into question despite signing up the highest number of 3G subscribers among Hutchison’s 3G business. The company announced in March that it had 453,000 customers in Italy.
Obviously the DoCoMo situation is not all down to 3G, and in some ways it could be declared a success: DoCoMo had 3.05 million 3G users at the end of March 2004 compared to 330,000 a year earlier. However finding a realistic pricing model to extract revenue seems to be a problem, and they have now announced that they will be offering unlimited mobile internet on their 3G FOMA service for a monthly flat fee of 3,900 yen. At current rates that is about a manageable 29 euros a month. Which would be fine for a lot of users, but then you have to subtract the downside: all those ADSL customers who may decide to switch over. As I said, great idea, but the economics are far from clear.
“If we don’t succeed, we run the risk of failure.”
J Danforth Quayle
May 06, 2004
On Your Marks, Get Set……… Hang on A Minute
Tuesday’s announcement by Vodaphone that they will launch their new 3G mobile service in Germany and Portugal is another topic which rattles some skeletons which have recently been kept well locked-away and out of reach.
As the Times is only too willing to remind us: “the auction of 3G licences conducted in the UK was the largest process of its kind ever conducted, earning for the Government some £22 billion in 2000”. And then suddenly everything went strangely quiet!
Really 3G has been plagued with problems, and I have the feeling that it is a hot potatoe that nobody really knows where to put down. Clearly it is a visionary, future-oriented technology: but is there a market for it, will it be profitable, and if so, when?
Well the race is now well and truly on with Hutchison Whampoa, Orange (which launched its first 3G services in “Pilot City” Toulouse on Monday) and T-Mobile ( which has reacted to the Vodafone move by saying it will start selling 3G handsets immediately and by bringing forward its planned launch by a week).
Vodafone’s chief marketing officer, Peter Bamford, puts it like this:
”Consumer trials have indicated that early adopters are keen to try this technology and so we are giving them a taste of it prior to the full launch of enhanced services later in the year.”
My own feeling is that there is a market, but not a sufficient one given the existing cost structure. In plain terms: if they make it too expensive virtually no-one will use it, and if it is too cheap there will be users but no profits. Either way it seems like it could be losing proposition in the short run.
Among the other details of interest are the choice of the Samsung Z105 for the launch (ouch Nokia!). And of course underlying it all the history of the alleged superiority of the EU planned standards-based roll-out over the anarchic and disruptive US ’deregulated’ model. You certainly don’t seem to hear too much about this here in Europe these days. As I said, haven’t they gone quiet!
April 09, 2004
Joogling and lexicological engineering
A number of blogs - enough that I doubt that I need to link to them - are trying to modify the top result of Google searches for the word Jew by pointing to the relevant entry in Wikipedia rather than the previous top response, an anti-semitic website which we will not be linking to.
I doubt that I will face any objections from the other bloggers here by joining in. By all evidence, the effort has been successful.
However, I should note that the problem is primarily lexicological.
Jew appears, according to Google, approximately 1.5 million times on the web. Jews, in contrast, appears some 5.5 million times and Jewish some 13 million times. The top link for Jews is the website for “Jews for Jesus”, while for Jewish it is a commercial website at www.jewish.com. “Jews for Jesus” is, perhaps, not the ideal choice for the top site at Google for Jews, but at least it isn’t a plainly anti-semitic organisation.
Most English words for group identity appear in at most two forms - singular and plural, with the singular acting as the adjective. The only other comparable case I can think of in English - Turk, Turks, Turkish - has a comparable frequency distribution to what you get for Jew, Jews and Jewish. We feel more comfortable saying He’s Turkish than He’s a Turk, just as people are more likely to describe someone as Jewish than as a Jew. I’m somewhat curious why this should be. I sense little difference between saying someone is American or an American, but saying someone is a Jew or even a Turk always sounds a little bit like a condemnation when compared to Jewish or Turkish.
I have a theory about why. We hear the word Jew used with a pejorative intent more often than Jewish, and thus we are naturally inclined not to use when we have no pejorative intentions. This actually fits well with most theories about language acquistion. But it poses a problem: Why do we hesitate to use the word Turk?
My hypothesis is that the negative meaning we link to Jew, from the use of formulas like the Jew in racist screeds, has actually become attached to the formula itself. The German or the American is perhaps a bit less striking to the ear, but still gives me an expectation that it will be followed by a gross generalisation, stereotype, or piece of pure bollocks. For words like German or American, this has no impact on Google scores because the adjective is identical to the singular noun.
This effort at Google-bombing is harmless enough, but the real problem is in the relatively uncommon morphology of the lexeme Jew/Jews/Jewish. I wonder if a better approach might have been to try to reclaim the word Jew from the racism associated, albeit subtly, with its use. I am fairly sure that the negative connotations associated with the word are no less present in the minds of Jewish anglophones than other people. For instance, Jewish bloggers might prepare list of other bloggers, linking to each with the word Jew.
Perhaps not. The whole idea of preparing a list of people and “marking” them with the word Jew clearly recalls the Holocaust. But then, this is really a question of lexicology, and this is how successful lexicological campaigns have been conducted in the past: “Black is beautiful.” “We’re here. We’re queer. Get used to it.” In order to reclaim a word, you have to use it.
March 21, 2004
March 17, 2004
Digitally Scared.
No doubt about it - revolutions are truly scary. Whether you think of the French one, the ones that freed Eastern Europe, or the digital revolution that is currently changing much of the transactional structure of our economies, and in particular the music industry. But contrary to most people, I do pity major label executives who never even stood a chance of understanding just what happened to them. After all, this is an industry where the average person’s desk had not seen a computer in 1996, as some insider once said.
As late as Summer 2000, I asked a business developer at EMI Germany about her thoughts with respect to mp3, file sharing and the future of her industry. At a time when mp3.com had already gone public, when the Napster battle was about to become nasty, a business developer at EMI Germany told me that the Internet was not yet a prominent part of their strategy. She was right, of course. The internet was only a big deal for their lobbying and legal departments. Despite some laudable efforts to change this – for major labels, the most important answer to the strategic challenges of digital distribution is still the law.
Certainly, even if the internet is not “one giant, out of control copying mashine”, as Hal Varian and Carl Shapiro wrote in “Information Rules”, its technological nature does trigger changes at the axiomatic core of economics. Brad DeLong and Michael Froomkin have laid this out in a paper called “Speculative Microeconomics for tomorrow’s economy” – I quote –
“This reciprocity-driven revenue stream may well be large enough that producers cover their costs and earn a healthy profit. Reciprocity is a basic mode of human behavior. People in the large do feel a moral obligation to tip cabdrivers and waiters. People do contribute to National Public Radio. But without excludability the belief that the market economy produces the optimal quantity of any commodity is hard to justify. Other forms of provision - public support funded by taxes that are not voluntary, for example - that had fatal disadvantages vis-a-vis the competitive market when excludability reigned may well deserve reexamination.”
In other words, we may enter a world in which Adam Smith’s prediction about the invisible hand might no longer hold true. Clearly that’s an earth-shattering thought, particularly given that economic history has taught us about the incentive nurturing nature of private property. And since we live in a world in which intellectual property is very likely more important than physical property, a reduced level of excludability is certainly not easy to even understand, much less to welcome. But welcome or not - information age societies will have to find a way to reconcile the advantages of internet driven “semiotic democratisation”, as Harvard’s William Fisher has called the slow digital lowering of entry barriers to cultural interchange, with a producer’s need to live from what they do. “Mass amateurisation”, blogs, open source, are a great way to socially benefit from positive external effects provided by volunteering human capital. But the same Human capital is usually also toiling in a day job to provide for the food for thought.
Don’t get me wrong. I very much welcome the end of the music industry’s “winner take all” market structure that reduced excludability is bringing about. I think it is great that the reduced expected return of any brand name piece of music distributed in the “classic” way is now opening up the market for labels that do a far better job at matching artists with people who love their music. But it must, in my opinion, also be clear that rights holders do have some legitimate concerns, which have to be addressed.
Unfortunately, the conventional, socialised, and certainly codified concept of property is not helping lawmakers to strike the new balance needed. However, it does help the music industry to protect their acquired position in the market. Telepolis’ Stefan Krempl (in German) may well be right to predict that last Monday was the day when an all-out copyright war was declared on Europe.
Not that the EU Parliament’s fast tracking of the Intellectual Property (IP) Enforcement Directive last Monday would have usually received much attention, but the events in Madrid that shocked Europe and the world certainly led to a complete premature burial of the subject in the major news outlets (see the list at the bottom of this wiki page for a press survey)
For the moment, the final amended version of the directive as agreed on in the first reading by the EU Parliament last Monday and accepted by the Council last Wednesday does not appear to be online – all I could find was an empty pdf-file
The most controversial issue regarding the content of the new directive is that is does not explicitly renounce to the criminal prosecution of non-commercial intellectual property rights infringements, like downloading songs from a p2p network for personal use. In fact, the directive leaves it open to national governments to hunt down file-sharers as they see fit. Adrian McMenamin, press officer for the European Parliamentary Labour Party states that “scare-tactics” have been used by the opponents of the directive – and he is certainly right that many of the most vocal opponents appear to not see the point of intellectual property protection at all - but I think it is rather naïve to claim that the directive does not create rather problematic incentives for national lawmakers. This directive certainly won’t make it easier to stand up for consumer rights in the face of a concerted right-holding effort. It seems, unfortunately, this directive will become another case study for “The Logic Of Collective Action”.
The most controversial formal issue regarding the directive is the Parliament’s rapporteur, the French UDF deputy Janelly Fourtou, the wife of Jean-René Fourtou, the current PDG of Vivendi Universal. While she is declaring “no financial interests” on her website, according to a vast variety of critics, she should have recused herself as rapporteur.
She should have, indeed. Just as she did in 1999, according to LeMonde , when she chose not to chair the environmental committee while her husband was CEO of the pharmaceutical company Aventis.
But it seems that this time the stakes were to high.
Frits Bolkestein, the commissioner in charge, may repeat as often as he wants that the intention of the directive is only to criminalise commercial infringements of intellectual property rights. But the ambiguity introduced into the directive by failing to clarify just that is certainly sufficient reason for concern when it comes to the true political intentions.
No doubt about it, revolutions are truly scary. And for just that reason, there are very few non-violent ones. After last Wednesday, chances of a socially problematic turn of the ongoing digital revolution have risen considerably for Europe.
February 10, 2004
There’s something about Laetitia
I’ve noticed that, after the front page, the consistently most hit posting on AFOE is this one. Somehow, I doubt that my shining prose is the reason.
Also, we get quite a lot of traffic from people looking for sexy weman. Well, this is certainly the right place. :^)
What lessons should we be taking from this? Do we need more T&A at AFOE?
January 08, 2004
We’re up for an award again
Namely Wampum: 2003 Koufax Awards nominations: Best Group Blog. Vote for us if you like.
Thankfully, this time we’ll lose to some very deserving blog, rather than some hateful idiot.
The Koufax awards are great, actually. They make you discover a bunch of excellent blogs. Especially great is the “best series” category.
Incidentally, Scott is nominated in that category, as well as the best writing category, and I think he deserves to win. If you haven’t read his series of posts on Language Rights and Political Theory, you’ve missed out. (That reminds me, I still haven’t written that reply I promised)
January 06, 2004
Official website
In case you don’t know it exists, here’s the offical website of Ireland’s Presidency of the EU.
Jurjen’s back!
Jurjen (“the quiet one” in AFOE) has started posting to his weblog again after a three month hiatus. Hooray!
Only, now I’m worried one of my favorite underrated bloggers will unexpectedlyy retire. A few days after Mrs Tilton’s comeback, Cinderella Bloggerfeller went on indefinite hiatus, so I hope it’s not some kind of cosmic law of balance thing.
December 31, 2003
Good news indeed
Mrs. Tilton has come out of retirement, and if you don’t know how good news that is, take a look at her old blog, and your in for a treat. Note the new address.
December 28, 2003
Movers and shakers
Max Sawicky has a new MT blog.
Before the holidays, Norman Geras and Robert Tagorda also moved, and switched to Movable Type.
Oh, and let’s give Scott a proper link to his new blog (another change to MT.)
December 18, 2003
The Irish Presidency
Over on Crooked Timber, Maria Farrell has some thoughts on the coming Irish EU Presidency and why the presidencies of small countries seem to get more achieved than those of the large countries. (She’s following on from this FT article)
The whole post is well-worth reading and I heartily recommend it, but she ends with an interesting point that I think is worth repeating here:
And let’s not forget, that as of 1st May next year, small countries will be in the majority of EU member states. We’re loud, we’re proud, and we’re here to stay…
December 12, 2003
A fist in the face?
British Spin, the anonymous author of the British Politics weblog makes an interesting suggestion about how European politics could become more interesting:
I’m not sure I agree with the idea of controversy for the sake of it, but it is an interesting point. Do we need more confrontation within Europe to make people more aware of what’s going on? Does the relative lack of public disagreement between Europe’s leaders make the people at large feel excluded from the process, or make them think it’s about technical issues rather than real and important matters? Would we see more of the European Parliament in the news if there were more heated debates going on there?One of the problems of Europe (of many) is that it is just too respectful. It is a good sign for Europe when various leaders clearly wish to bitchslap each other. Frankly, to build a stronger european community, nothing would be better than a no holds barred brawl.
Think about it. If British politics was conducted with the restraint, the gentle diplomacy and careful choreography on Euro-summiteering we would not only be asleep, but we would be far less alive to the vital issues of the day.
This is why I cheered when Silvio Berlusconi made a tasteless joke about a German MEP, and why I cheered louder when Schroeder then cancelled a holiday in Italy. I can’t wait for Blair to liken the Franco-German alliance to two drunks staggering down the street (c. Bill Clinton) or for Chirac to tell the Poles that they don’t have a right to a veto because they should be jolly grateful not to still be communist.
This stuff isn’t just trivia, or froth, or yah boo politics. It’s a sign that passions are engaged and that politicians need to speak to their people, not just to each other.
The demotic and the democratic voices are the same. They are loud, energetic, rough, vicious and full of life. Courtly language, diplomacy and soft speaking are the language of the elite, of the few, of the exclusive.
December 04, 2003
Happy belated
Jonathan Edelstein celebrated his first blog anniversary two days ago. His weblog, the Head Heeb, is one of the best blogs I’ve had the fortune to read. He writes eloquently and authoritatively about Isreael/Palestine, Africa, Polynesia(!), Jewish communities around the world, Jewish history, and plenty of other topics. Most of his post are on topics that wouldn’t be covered in the Blogosphere if it weeren’t for him. I can’t really put in words just how great he is.
Congratulations Johnathan, and thank you for making me a less ignorant person.
November 27, 2003
Moore’s Law As Applied To Humans
Sorry, I’m back. I’ve been keeping myself kinda busy over the last two weeks. On my travels I met what you could consider to be a pretty bright programmer: he writes spider programmes. Now if you were silly enough to want to sit in the first few rows of a concert from some mediocre but popular pop star, you would probably want to be cursing him: for his boss and his spider programme would already have the tickets. He works for an entrepreneur in a nameless but extremely large country, who buys up all the tickets for 250 dollars and re-sells them at around a thousand a go. He told me that at first this work was easy, but recently things have gotten more difficult. The concert organisers have tried to overcome the practice by having an image inserted to which you have to manually type some given response. Problem solved you might think. Well no: this is where ingenuity and globalisation come in to guarantee that ’real’ entrepreneurship will not be thwarted.
His boss responded creatively: he contracted a hall with 200 workers in India. These workers spend their day typing the image responses manually into a data base. Currently they have entered something like 500,000 images. (It also occurs me that systematic spam must do something like this: the bacteria-antibiotic effect). The recounting of this story lead my Argentina blogging friend Marcelo to make the following highly perceptive observation:
Now I think he really has a point here. The internet skeptics are so busy being skeptical that they don’t notice when the roof is falling in around their heads.The image of the wharehouse of people defeating the turing-test safeguards is extremely interesting. At the risk of sounding callous, I think that an interesting way of conceptualizing what’s happening in India and China is that Moore’s law is applying to humans: the capacity of a person you can rent for $1 is increasing fast, thanks to a bigger pool of people and better technology to teach and connect them. Of course the pool of people is finite, and eventually you start getting higher wages, but the principle is the same - and if stuff like MIT’s Open Courseware works well, the trend might well continue.
On my website deflation page I identify three factors which might be contributing to a global deflationary environment: OECD ageing, surplus labour in China (and now, increasingly, of course, India), and the falling price of information. Now I have never really been to clear where to go with this third one, it was more a case of reading Kurzweil and extrapolating what to me was the obvious. Now Marcelo has come along and put it very succinctly: Moore’s law as it applies to humans. And like the other version of the law, the only remaining question is how long can this run till we hit specific physical limits. I think Kurzweil’s answer would be: farther than you imagine.
November 26, 2003
Blogging the news II
Today’s election day in Northern Ireland, which gives me an opportunity to plug the invaluble Slugger O’Toole.
November 15, 2003
The Country That Has it All
Posting under the header: ’More Signs That We Are In the Twentieth Century After All’ my young Argentinian co-blogger notes crypically “I don’t know what a XIXth (or XXth) century englishman would say, if we told him that English unions would one day protest against losing skilled jobs to India”……… adding…………”and, in the heels of our previous post about Sekhar Kapur interview, today the blogsphere is buzzing with news of the P2P network Kazaa’s agreement to distribute (in a pay-per-view fashion) the indian film Supari. If this works out economically, the sidelining of traditional distribution channels might very well enhance the global reach of Bollywood productions, specially among the growing Asian diaspora in the developed world. We are truly living in interesting times”. (BTW: I owe the post on Kapur to Marcelo: completely. If it wasn’t for Argentina, what would I know about India!).
In the comments I respond “Absolutely, there is another big push going on, Google’s innovative share offer is another example, maybe blog portals will be another. Something is really happening out there”. So it’s wakey wakey time. For the first time since the mid-ninetees the thing is really humming. First-movers, creative destruction, defining moments: get tighly back in your seats. Hold on for the bumpy ride.
And meantime, exceptionally, and on a boring grey Saturday morning: news from the country that has it all: problems, problems, problems.
The arrival of winter in this troubled land of medieval forts and Soviet-era apartment buildings invariably means one thing: another energy crisis. And so late last year the desperate government turned to U.S. officials for help.
With U.S. funds, a consulting firm was hired to take over the country’s electrical distribution system outside Tbilisi, the capital, but it did not take long for the American consultants to discover why Georgia is a nation that does not work. The power company the firm inherited in May was a tangle of creaky equipment, unpaid debt and widespread corruption. Only 10 percent of customers paid their bills.
The consultants decided to play tough. Delinquent customers would have their power turned off until they began paying. The Georgians’ response proved equally tough. In one region, the governor and his guards stormed a substation and flipped the power back on. A mayor in another area did the same, whipping out a gun and shooting a transmission insulator to prove he meant business. Subcontractors have been kidnapped by their own employees, and the consultants even had to break up a knife fight in the energy minister’s office.
The U.S. firm’s tribulations mirror a broader social breakdown in this country of 5 million. A dozen years after independence, the former Soviet republic in the Caucasus Mountains has become the archetype of a failed state, overwhelmed by poverty, stagnation, graft and separatist divisions.
“It’s just a big dysfunctional web,” said Dean White, a senior partner at PA Consulting Group, the U.S. firm struggling to fix the electrical system.
Years of frustration boiled over in parliamentary elections this month as nearly 80 percent of voters cast ballots for parties other than the bloc led by President Eduard Shevardnadze. And that was only the official tally. The vote was marred by massive fraud, according to U.S. and European observers, and thousands of protesters certain that the government stole what votes it did get have been in the streets of the capital for nearly two weeks demanding Shevardnadze’s resignation.
In the latest escalation, as many as 20,000 protesters marched to Shevardnadze’s headquarters at the State Chancellery on Friday and formed a human chain around the building.
The election may also have signaled a turning point in U.S. relations with Georgia. For the last decade, Washington has given Tbilisi special treatment out of gratitude to Shevardnadze for his role in ending the Cold War when he was Soviet foreign minister.
Successive U.S. administrations have funneled more than $1 billion to Georgia, one of the highest per capita rates in the world. The CIA trained Shevardnadze’s personal guards. President Bush dispatched Green Berets to train Georgians to deal with terrorists camped out in the lush but lawless Pankisi Gorge. “We used to be the darlings of Washington,” recalled Tedo Japaridze, the Georgian national security adviser, who has six aides whose salaries are paid by the U.S. State Department.
But now there are increasing signs that the long-indulgent United States has decided to stop cutting Shevardnadze so much slack.
In the run-up to the election, Bush publicly encouraged Shevardnadze to hold an honest vote and chose the most influential envoy he could find to deliver the message, former secretary of state James A. Baker III, Shevardnadze’s longtime friend from the final days of the Soviet Union. Baker came in July and pressured the Georgians into adopting a new election code.
To impress upon Shevardnadze the importance of the situation, more American luminaries followed, including Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), John M. Shalikashvili, a former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Strobe Talbott, a former deputy secretary of state.
In a last-minute intervention, Bush sent Shevardnadze a letter two days before the Nov. 2 vote imploring him “to conduct this upcoming election in a free, fair, peaceful, and transparent manner” and avoid “violence and intimidation as a political tool.”
The apparently rigged election left U.S. officials steaming. In an interview, U.S. Ambassador Richard M. Miles called the election “a mess” and “marred by massive irregularities and voter fraud.” More broadly, he said: “We’re disappointed at the slow pace of reform in Georgia. There are seemingly enormous difficulties in tackling very basic problems with corruption in this society. We would like to see stronger leadership and faster, more measurable progress.”
AES Corp., an Arlington-based firm that owned Tbilisi’s electric utility, pulled out of Georgia in July in frustration and sold its assets to Russia’s electric monopoly. Two months later, a U.S. aid official declared that, when it came to reform in the 27 former Soviet-bloc countries, “Georgia’s progress has slipped near the bottom.”
Even before the election, U.S. officials made their displeasure plain this fall by canceling a $14 million aid project to rehabilitate a hydroelectric plant and scaling back a program to help the Finance Ministry. They have threatened more aid reductions in February unless Georgia demonstrates progress according to certain benchmarks of reform.
“I think their patience is finished,” said Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies.
Talbott said in an interview that the time had come for Washington to apply a tough-love policy to the Georgians. “If they can’t get the problem of corruption, and essentially corrupt politics, under control, then there’s not much hope for Georgia,” he said by telephone from New York. “Shevardnadze has this huge international prestige that he could have used … and all the preliminary evidence is that he decided not to do that.”
Japaridze, a former ambassador to Washington, said he sees the shift in the e-mails from the White House that he finds each morning when he arrives at the office. He added that Shevardnadze grasps the situation.
“He knows and understands better than anyone that Washington has a short memory,” Japaridze said in the State Chancellery building, over the shouts of protesters outside. “Yes, he helped bring down the Berlin Wall, and there will be nice words. But politics is about other issues.” Japaridze acknowledged that the election was deeply flawed and added, “We need to do our best to clean up this damage.”
Georgia was supposed to be a model of reform under Shevardnadze, but in recent years has seen mostly misery. Major industries have been taken over by powerful oligarchs, including some close to Shevardnadze. Georgians must pay bribes to get driver’s licenses, passports or university admission, to start a business and to avoid paying taxes or electric bills.
“There’s no segment in Georgian society without corruption,” said Ketevan Rostiashvili, director of the Georgian office of American University’s Transnational Crime & Corruption Center.
Pensioners receive $7 a month, and even that is often months late. Police officers are so poorly paid that protesters have been slipping them food across the barriers each night. Electricity has become such a precious commodity that the elevators in some tall buildings here will not work unless people feed coin boxes installed in them.
The shadow economy represents at least 60 percent of Georgia’s total. And even under the most optimistic growth scenario, according to Roman Tsiridze, an economist, it would take Georgia 12 years to catch up to where Bosnia is today.
One reason for that can be found at the Tbilisi factory run by David Bidzinashvili.
In the communist era, the sprawling factory compound employed 5,000 people and supplied shoes for sale throughout the Soviet bloc. Today, most of the buildings are used for storage and only the part bought by Bidzinashvili for $130,000 in 1990 is still operating, making uniforms for oil companies.
During his busiest season, he employs 380 people.
“We can’t compete with small illegal factories that don’t pay taxes,” said Bidzinashvili. “There are a lot of them, and they can produce as much as we do and they can sell cheaper.”
What’s more, Georgia is still in pieces. The territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia remain under the control of pro-Russian separatists.
The Pankisi Gorge was until last year the refuge of Chechen guerrillas and Arab terrorists. The autonomous region of Adzharia has its own military and does not defer to Shevardnadze, who is trying to make a deal with its leader to forge a parliamentary coalition.
The ripple effects of those divisions are visible in the heart of Tbilisi. Overlooking Republic Square, just behind a statue of Georgia’s 12th-century hero, King David the Builder, sits the run-down Iveria Hotel, its once proud sign rusted, its cold lobby dilapidated, its balconies covered by cheap plywood or blue plastic sheeting to create more rooms.
About 3,500 refugees from Abkhazia have been camped out at the Iveria for more than a decade waiting for a chance to go home. “We’ve heard promises for 10 years, but nothing has ever been done,” said Lamara Availiani, 69, who lives on the fourth floor in a small room with a cross and an icon on the wall. “We have no hope left.”
November 01, 2003
Close Encounters of the Virtual Kind
You can tell Saturday has come round again. I’m here with another of those ’mindless’ posts. Still, anyone not suffering from too much of a post-halloween hangover, and looking for a cool bit of culturally-correct entertainment should try this (especially mousing over top-right exhibit two). If however you are in the mood for a culturally less-correct but nonetheless fairly enjoyable quick read try this. And the point of all this, the place I found the links: Henry Schroy’s Blog. Now Henry is a musician (more culture: check out the music for Orixas), born in Rio and now living in Brooklyn New York: so what the hell has this got to do with Europe? Good question. The answer is probably very little. However…….
I can manage to work up one or two pointers which might get us back on track. You see, the interesting question to ask would be about how I got to meet Henry. And the answer would be that I found him because he linked to me (I normally follow new links back upstream to have a quick gander at just who might be crazy enough…..), and he linked to me because, for some reason I still haven’t fathomed, he got interested in my Indian Tech friend Rajesh, and this somehow sent him over to me.
Now I’m starting to get used to things like this, but when it first started happening, it was, I think, little short of mind blowing. Someone from Brazil, living in NY, zooms through Mumbai only to end up on top of my desk in Barcelona. Not only that, but it turns out we have a number of things in common. What I think I’m trying to say is that if this has never happened to you, it’s very hard to describe how you feel. My wife continually tells me that she can see from my face that something interesting has been happening, but beyond that there is no other external sign. She complains she has no way of telling what is important and what isn’t anymore. And the net is like this. Those of us who are in just can’t find any reasonable way of conveying the sensations to those who aren’t. The only strategy would seem to be preparing an experiential explanation - like one of those Borges maps which gives a more detailed specification than the space it is describing - which could offer a large as life version of the net itself. An astronaut must have similar problems after the flight.
And this brings me back to the core of this post. What I find is that my very conception of human contact - whether European or any other - is changing, and part of that change has to do with the loss of place, of physical location, as a determinant. I would say I had now a lot more friends, or people who I consider to be friends, than I had when I started blogging. But the strange thing about my new ’friends’ is that in the majority of cases I neither know what they look like, nor have I ever heard their voice. I think it’s worse: I think I’m getting to like it like this. In some ways you could say the contact is ’purer’: you have less to go on, you form your opinion without visual or auditory information, you get to use your imagination more. It is in a way a bit like reading a novel, and imagining the characters, simply by going on the author’s description and what he has them say. And yet, the strangest thing of all, I have the feeling I know the person I am communicating with, that I can like, or dislike them, just as I can like or dislike people in the physical world. Weird.
October 29, 2003
The trials of the Tories
Later today, Iain Duncan Smith, the leader of Britain’s Conservative Party, will face a vote of confidence in his leadership that he’s widely expected not to survive. (For those of you looking for blogged coverage during the day, I recommend British Politics, Anthony Wells, Iain Murray and our own Matthew Turner. We’re yet to have a blogging Conservative MP, but there’s some interesting perspectives from inside Westminster from the MPs Tom Watson and Richard Allan.)
In the short term, this election is unlikely to have much of an effect on the rest of Europe - the Conservatives’ policy towards EU matters is unlikely to change greatly whoever becomes the leader (the Europhile Ken Clarke is unlikely to run, let alone win after his two previous defeats) - but the plight of the Conservative Party does mirror that of the other parties, both left and right, who dominated European politics in the 80s and 90s. Many parties had extended periods in office, but were then swept out in the mid to late 90s, often in landslide elections, and many continue to find it hard to mount effective opposition today - the obvious examples are the French Socialists and various Italian parties, though Spain’s PSOE and Germany’s Free Democrats (if not the CDU/CSU) also fit the pattern.
There has been discussion in Britain of the possibility of a ’realignment’ of British politics with the currently third placed Liberal Democrats (full disclosure: the party I belong to) passing the Conservatives to become the Opposition. While many Conservatives dismiss this as an unlikely scenario, there are precedents from Europe (and, of course, Canada) of seemingly dominant parties collapsing in a short time. Realignment is occurring in many European countries - there would be a certain irony if the process in Britain occurs because of the actions of the most Eurosceptic of the major parties.
October 21, 2003
Col Lounsbury
I’ve added a new blog to the blogroll that has quickly become one of my favorites.
Col Lounsbury is a financier currently in Jordan, involved in Iraqi reconstruction. He’s a scathing critic of the administration’s efforts.
He’s quite bright, extremely knowledgable about Middle Easter culture and society. He’s also a delight to read, with a very distinctive style, and also a very distinctive, larger than life personality.
October 02, 2003
Sheiken, Not Stirred
The Washington Post reports on:
Spreading Saudi Fundamentalism in U.S.
Network of Wahhabi Mosques, Schools, Web Sites Probed by FBI
“On Aug. 20, 2001, Saleh Ibn Abdul Rahman Hussayen, a man who would soon be named a minister of the Saudi government and put in charge of its two holy mosques, arrived in the United States to meet with some of this country’s most influential fundamentalist Sunni Muslim leaders.
“His journey here was to include meetings and contacts with officials of several Saudi-sponsored charities that have since been accused of links to terrorist groups, including the Illinois-based Global Relief Foundation, which was shut down by U.S. authorities last year.
“He met with the creators of Islamic Web sites that U.S. authorities contend promote the views of radical Saudi clerics tied to Osama bin Laden.” …
“Backed by money from Saudi Arabia, Wahhabis have built or taken over hundreds of mosques in North America and opened branches of Saudi universities here for the training of imams as part of the effort to spread their beliefs, which are intolerant of Christianity, Judaism and even other strains of Islam.” …
“The Saudi government, through its embassy here, declined to discuss any aspect of the probe. Embassy officials agreed in August to forward a request for an interview to Hussayen, but provided no response.” …
“The most intriguing aspect of Hussayen’s journey may be entirely coincidental: his brief proximity in a hotel near Dulles International Airport to three of the Sept. 11, 2001, hijackers the night before they crashed Flight 77 into the Pentagon. On the night of Sept. 10, Hani Hanjour, Khalid Almihdhar and Nawaf Alhazmi checked into the same hotel, a Marriott Residence Inn.
“The FBI has examined hotel videotapes and interviewed employees, but has found no indication that Hussayen and the hijackers interacted, law enforcement sources said. After the attack, an FBI agent interviewed hotel guests, including Hussayen and his wife, but did not get very far.
“According to court testimony from FBI agent Gneckow earlier this year, the interview was cut short when Hussayen ’feigned a seizure, prompting the agents to take him to a hospital, where the attending physicians found nothing wrong with him.’
“The agent recommended that Hussayen “should not be allowed to leave until a follow-up interview could occur,” Gneckow told the court. But ’her recommendation, for whatever reason, was not complied with,’ he said.
“On Sept. 19, the day air travel resumed, Hussayen and his wife took off for Saudi Arabia.”
Is anyone in the European press doing this kind of investigative reporting on the Islamist networks that are still active in Europe? I haven’t seen anything in the Frankfurter Allgemeine, but there’s obviously lots of the German press that I don’t get to. France? UK? Nordics?
Odd, But Interesting
Gregg Easterbrook of the New Republic writes:
MOSCOW LOST THE COLD WAR, BUT DREAMS OF WINNING THE GLOBAL WARMING WAR: Why won’t Russia ratify the Kyoto Treaty? It would seem very much in Moscow’s interest to do so.
The United States has dropped out of Kyoto negotiations, but most other Western nations remain in. Russia now holds the swing vote on whether Kyoto goes into effect for most Western nations except the United States. If Kyoto actually did take effect, requiring most Western nations to make dramatic reductions in greenhouse gases, Europe would inevitably end up involved in “carbon trading” with Moscow. The European Union would invest in modernization of Russian industry, in order to reduce Russian greenhouse-gas emissions; then Europe would buy the reduction credits so created. The European Union also would reduce its use of greenhouse-offender coal, substituting lower-carbon natural gas from Russia. Thus it seems Moscow and its industries would come out a winner under a Kyoto regime. Yet the Duma has been resisting ratification of Kyoto for two years, and yesterday, Vladimir Putin said he is also opposed.
Possible reason for Russian resistance--Moscow wants global warming! Much of the world might suffer, but the freezing former Soviet states might be better off. The agricultural region of Russia might expand significantly, while Siberia became reasonably habitable. If Siberia and other ice regions became reasonably habitable, global warming would effectively be expanding Russian territory by climate change, not war. And what government doesn’t want more territory?
Sidelight: Why does Germany favor the Kyoto Treaty? Not so much for greenhouse reasons but so that Berlin can shut down the country’s subsidized, politically powerful coal-mining industry. German leaders have wanted for decades to cut subsidies for coal production--even the presumably pro-labor current government wants this--because coal mined in Germany costs more than twice the world price, mainly owing to featherbedded work rules. Every move to reign in the German coal industry has been greeted by public howls. But if Berlin could blame a coal shut-down on an international obligation, and polls show the Kyoto accord is very popular among Germans, the equation would change.
+++
The sidelight is even odder and even more interesting. Hmm.
October 01, 2003
Quiz time
Bored? Think you’re an expert on EU matters? Then try the BBC’s Brussels Brainbuster quiz. OK, it’s just 10 multiple choice questions, not really a true brainbuster, but it should fill a minute or two of your time. You can even share your results with everyone else in the comments section - especially if you beat my rather pathetic 7/10 and want to gloat.
September 30, 2003
Tobias is back
Tobias was apparently too modest to announce it here so I’ll do it for him: Almost A Diary is back online after a month of hosting troubles.
The new address is http://almostadiary.baldingwithgrace.de
September 13, 2003
Around the Internet
Polls indicate Estonians will vote yes to EU accession tomorrow.
In Sweden, “polls give widely differing indications as to the likely outcome of the referendum.”
The Economist has a pretty decent primer on our referendum. (Via Crooked Timber)
International Herald Tribune reported yesterday enlargement seems to be bad news for African farmers::
For France the prospect of support from Poland and Hungary is a welcome development.
For years French politicians have feared that the enlargement of the European Union would mean a dilution of French power and influence in Europe. But on the question of farm policy, enlargement could provide much-needed moral and political support.
It is a different story for groups that support a radical overhaul of the E43 billion, or $48 billion, program, for whom enlargement is a worrying prospect.
“The opportunity for reform was this summer,” said Sam Barratt of Oxfam, an aid organization that has been very critical of Europe’s farm policies. “And given the obstinacy that the French had then, when the Hungarians and the Poles join it’s going to make any reform even harder.” The number of farmers in the Union will increase by 50 percent with the admission of 10 new countries into the Union in May.
Blogs:
The indispenable Cosmocrat finds increasingly strong signs that the EU Constitution will be fundamentally re-examined by the Inter-Governmental Conference.
Stefan Geens blogs about The Wall Street Journal’s comments on Anna Lindh. He was pleasantly surprised, then quite unpleasantly surprised.
Juan Cole on Al-Qaeda’s new geostrategic masterplan
September 04, 2003
Around the Blogs: CAP etc
I finally got around to looking at the Guardian’s new campaign blog, KickAAS, which is dedicated to abolishing agricultural subsidies, certainly a laudable goal., and while I don’t know if it’ll be a regular read, it’s surprisingly non-boring. It’s also interesting as a phenomenon, especially for those buying into the hype on poli blogs.
Via their comments section I discovered ideosyncratic conservative Back40’s blog, where was delighted to find a coherent and reasoned defense of CAP*, probably the first time I’ve seen such a thing. The blog’s full of original takes on original choices of topics. (except when talking about ’the liberal media’.)
Who knew agricultural subsidies could be fun?
Less fun is the news that Matthew Yglesias will do all his political blogging on The American Prospect’s staff blog - unaccredited. I join his commenters in wondering why they didn’t give him his own blog, which would presumably get them more of his considerable readership, and thus get TAP more revenue and exposure. Especially since he on his own has posted more frequebtly than all TAPPED contributors combined.
This is sad since Yglesias was one of my favorite’s bloggers and this will obviously not be the same thing.
Update: Henry Farrell gives us a nod (thank you!) and responds to Iain’s post. In comments, ’Doug’ made this brilliant observation, that I gotta reproduce here:
“There’s an interesting article to be done on what fantasies European integration evokes from local paleocons. In Britain, it’s apparently Guy Fawkes. In Poland, it’s godlessness, Communism and abortion. In Hungary, it’s Jews and maybe Germans. In Germany, it’s waves of invaders from the East. There’s probably a specific set for almost any EU or soon-to-be EU country that would tell outsiders a lot about the neuroses in national history. And these, in turn, tend to draw on political tropes that are so old fashioned you wonder what steamer trunk someone lifted them out of.”
In Sweden, of course, it’s an evil neoliberal plot to destroy the welfare state.
*The EU’s Common Agricultural Policy.