"If I'd enjoyed writing dry, unimaginative prose . . . well, than I'd still be practicing law. So if you're looking for dry, run-of-the-mill market observations, you've come to the wrong place -- Expect the unexpected.
and
This modest blog is an experiment; You can look forward to few graphics and zero multimedia

"Gasoline, adjusted for inflation, remains relatively cheap. A gallon still costs less than the same amount of Coca-Cola.

" This rapid role reversal - from world's banker to world's biggest debtor - has had two advantages for Americans. First, it has allowed US business to invest substantially (notably in information technology) without requiring Americans to reduce their consumption. Between 10 and 20 per cent of all investment in the US economy in the past decade has been financed out of the savings of foreigners, allowing Americans to spend and spend. The personal savings rate is less than half of what it was in the 1980s.

The second pay-off, however, has taken the form of tax cuts rather than private sector investment. The dramatic shift in the finances of the federal government from surplus to deficit since 2000 - a deterioration unprecedented in peacetime, according to the IMF - has been substantially funded from abroad. Had that not been the case, the combination of tax cuts, increased spending and reduced revenue that has characterised George Bush's fiscal policy would have led to much more severe increases in long-term US interest rates. Veterans of the Nixon and Reagan years can only shake their heads enviously at the way the present Republican administration has escaped punishment for its profligacy. To run deficits on this scale while enjoying long-term bond yields of under 5 per cent looks like the biggest free lunch in modern economic history. The cost of servicing the federal debt has actually fallen under Bush, even as the total debt itself has risen." (my empasis)

"... reliance on exports to the US may not be a long-term option for Asia. In a recent lecture in Washington, Larry Summers, the former US treasury secretary, argued that the US has no alternative but to increase its savings rates if it is to extricate itself from "the most serious problem of low national saving, resulting in dependence on foreign capital, and fiscal unsustainability, that we have faced in the last 50 years". His conclusion is that the world can no longer count on the US to be the consumer of first resort, which means in turn that "the growth plans of others that rely on export- led growth will need to be adjusted in the years ahead"."
....
The Asian dollar dilemma is the euro's opportunity, both economically and politically. First, if the US does cease to be the only functioning engine of global demand, it is imperative that the euro zone step up to the plate, and soon. For too long the European Central Bank has made price stability the "magnetic north" of its policy compass. It has not spent enough time thinking about growth in Europe and the world. For too long ECB interest rates have been about a percentage point above the Fed's, despite the fact that deflation is a bigger threat to the core German economy than it ever has been to the US.
...
World money does not mean world power: the EU is still very far from being able to match the US when it comes to hard military power. But losing the position of No1 currency would without question weaken the economic foundations of that hard power

" This blog has been discovered and promoted even before the students have had a chance to write anything.
Michael Kantor at The Calico Cat was the first to notice, and he told Karsten Junge at CurryBlog. Both have posted about this idea already (see Blogging In the Classroom" and "Blogroll Update").
OK students ... the pressure is on ... the eyes of the whole blog world are watching!"

P.S. For students who are trying to figure out how this all happened so fast; smart webmasters get reports of who linked to their site around the internet. When I linked your class blog to The Calico Cat, the author/webmaster there got a report telling him that I had linked our blog to his ... and then he checked us out, and wrote about what he found."

"Here are a few random thoughts and memories related to Reagan. I'll probably update this some more (like I said I've been trying to avoid the Reagan hysteria):
* Mandela was a terrorist and Bin Laden was a freedom fighter
* Everyone without health care was just "in between" jobs.
* Has it occurred to anyone that the deaths of Brezhnev, Chernenko and Andropov in a span of a few years and the Chernobyl crisis might have had anything to do with the internal collapse of the Soviet Union?
* If the point of Star Wars was just a tactic to spend the USSR into the grave...how come we keep spending billions on it 20 years later?
* Progress on social issues was made mainly in the 1990s not the 1980s”

"Reagan and Bush Senior more than doubled the national debt, permanently hobbling future generations with debt payments.
And what did they accomplish with that debt that is so much better than Presidents who conducted their economic policy without stealing money from their grandchildren?
Any "boom" under Reagan (and the economy wasn't that great overall) was theft from future generations, nothing more. Al Capone had a pretty good economy for himself too, but we didn't give him a state funeral.
It is truly pathetic that conservatives, who once believed in pay-as-you-go accounting, can worship an economic policy that was nothing more than credit card spending sprees.”

"from the Mises Institute, a fundamentalist pro-capitalism organization

"This memo to Mises Institute members was written in late 1987, and published in "The Free Market Reader," LH Rockwell, Jr., ed., 1988, pp. 3342–362 and is posted on Mises.org in an edited edition. ... I come to bury Reaganomics, not to praise it. ...
In 1986, the last recorded year of the Reagan administration, the federal government spent $990 billion, an increase of 68%. Whatever this is, it is emphatically not reducing government expenditures.
...We get federal spending as percent of GNP in 1980 as 21.6%, and after six years of Reagan, 24.3%.
The next, and admittedly the most embarrassing, failure of Reaganomic goals is the deficit...One of the most curious, and least edifying, sights in the Reagan era was to see the Reaganites completely change their tune of a lifetime.
[T]he famous "tax cut" of 1981 did not cut taxes at all. It's true that tax rates for higher-income brackets were cut; but for the average person, taxes rose, rather than declined. The reason is that, on the whole, the cut in income tax rates was more than offset by two forms of tax increase. One was "bracket creep," a term for inflation quietly but effectively raising one into higher tax brackets, so that you pay more and proportionately higher taxes even though the tax rate schedule has officially remained the same. The second source of higher taxes was Social Security taxation, which kept increasing, and which helped taxes go up overall.”

"And the economic expansion under President Reagan did not validate his economic doctrine. His supply-side advisers didn't promise a one-time growth spurt as the economy emerged from recession; they promised, but failed to deliver, a sustained acceleration in economic growth."�

"Here's a more complete version than Krugman provides of Greenspan telling Paul O'Neill that he thinks the tax cuts (that he'd supported in Congressional testimony) would be a mistake unless they included "triggers," i.e. a stipulation that they would not be permanent if surpluses evaporated:
May 22 [2001]... Greenspan arrived at the Treasury for breakfast with O'Neill. Their secret trigger pact had come up one vote short.... "We did what we could on conditionality," O'Neill said with momentary resignation.... "The first big battle is over, really. I think we fought well, we made our points vigorously." Greenspan said that wasn't enough. "Without the triggers, that tax cut is irresponsible fiscal policy," he said in his deepest funereal tone. [The Price of Loyalty, p.162]
I was surprised that Krugman didn't mention that, in an unprecedented act of collusion between the executive and the chairman of the normally rigorously independent Federal Reserve, Greenspan met with Cheney and O'Neill to plot political strategy. They met for breakfast at Cheney's house on January 14, 2001, a week before the inauguration, and nine days before Greenspan's thumbs-up-on-tax-cuts testimony to Congress. In a normal era, when we weren't overrun with other outrages, this would have been a scandal in itself and made Greenspan's reappointment politically impossible.

"I don�t look very good and I could not afford a real campaign so it must have been the message"

"He is no idealistic and well-meaning "European virgin" who thinks he can bring common sense back to Brussels. Van Buitenen was very much a euro-insider.
He was a respected civil servant, the EC's assistant auditor, until he did the unthinkable by exposing fraud and incompetence within the European Commission � the central organisation that runs EU daily affairs.
One would imagine that monitoring the EU's "government" was the main job of MEPs � particularly given the fact MEPs have far fewer actual powers than members of the European national Parliaments.
What were the MEPs doing while commissioners were running the good ship EU Europe onto the rocks?
And was Van Buitenen thanked for being a whistleblower and saving the day? Of course not! The politicians heading the EU hounded him and angrily denounced his audacity for speaking out.
....
Van Buitenen said he will be a-political and his movement will not be a traditional party of the left or the right, but one that belongs to the people.
His message was music to the ears of many Dutch voters who elected him their champion.
But he has his work cut out for him � a mammoth task lies ahead and he obviously can't do it alone.
The only hope is that other Dutch MEPs and representatives from other countries will put national political considerations aside long enough to row in behind Van Buitenen's campaign.
There are already many lone voices in the European Parliament crying out for change and it is time they formed a coalition to drive through changes that will make the EU more accountable to the people.
If and when that happens, the onus will be on the public more than ever to come out and vote en masse for figures like Van Buitenen.
Clearly, Van Buitenen is no Messiah and he might not ultimately be the one to revitalise the EU � but at the very least he is a positive example for others to follow."

"now the leading online media on European Union policies.
"

"Dutch EP elections: higher voter turnout, anti-EU protest voting"

"George W. Bush last Feburary, on Meet The Press (emphasis added):
Russert: If the Iraqis choose, however, an Islamic extremist regime, would you accept that, and would that be better for the United States than Saddam Hussein?
President Bush: They're not going to develop that. And the reason I can say that is because I'm very aware of this basic law they're writing. They're not going to develop that because right here in the Oval Office I sat down with Mr. Pachachi and Chalabi and al-Hakim, people from different parts of the country that have made the firm commitment, that they want a constitution eventually written that recognizes minority rights and freedom of religion.

George W. Bush yesterday , Rose Garden press conference:
Q Thank you, Mr. President. Mr. Chalabi is an Iraqi leader that's fallen out of favor within your administration. I'm wondering if you feel that he provided any false information, or are you particularly --
THE PRESIDENT: Chalabi?
Q Yes, with Chalabi.
THE PRESIDENT: My meetings with him were very brief. I mean, I think I met with him at the State of the Union and just kind of working through the rope line, and he might have come with a group of leaders. But I haven't had any extensive conversations with him."

"..the more general question is the more interesting one. How do you respond to a world where actually fixing problems is beyond the resources available?"

"The Democrats ought to thank and congratulate the countries that have sent troops, and ought to remind the economically powerful Switzerlands of this world that they, too, have responsibilities. The Democrats ought to assure everyone that support for a successful outcome in Iraq does not have to mean support for George W. Bush. And how should the Democrats make these several arguments? They should speak about something more than the United Nations and stability in Iraq. They should talk about fascism. About death cults. About the experiences of the 20th century. About the need for democratic solidarity.�

"One of the pillars of trade theory is that wealthy industrial economies like America�s can be broken down into two basic segments of activity � tradables and nontradables. International competition has long been confined to the tradable goods, or manufacturing sector. By contrast, the nontradables sector was largely shielded from tough competitive pressures, thereby providing shelter to the 80% of America�s private sector workforce that toil in services. Consequently, as competitive pressures drove down prices in tradable goods, the bulk of the economy and its workforce benefited from the resulting expansion of purchasing power. Advanced, knowledge-based economies thrive on this distinction between tradables and nontradables � manufacturing and services. �That critical distinction has now been blurred.�

"the dollar is "our currency, but your problem"

"I ask you too to view events in a deeper perspective. You will then see that India has turned out to be a remarkable country. It has a Muslim president, who has been asked to choose between a Christian and a Sikh for prime minister. Which other democracy can boast of such secular inclusiveness? Despite Sushma Swaraj and Uma Bharati, this cannot be called a victory for Hindu chauvinism. You might almost say it is a victory of sorts for secularism. You might almost say that India is shining after all".

"So, although we in India have much to be ashamed of, we have some redeeming features too. Muslims, Christians and Sikhs can get to the very top on merit. This will not be of solace to those killed in the next riot. But for now, let us raise a toast to Manmohan Singh, and to those who chose him as prime minister.

"Rival Sunni and Shiite Muslims exchanged gunfire yesterday, killing at least one passerby, in sectarian clashes triggered by a suicide bombing at a mosque the day before in southern Pakistan".

"Geachte heer/mevrouw,

Begin vorig jaar heb ik een brief 1) gestuurd aan Eurocommissaris Mario Monti naar aanleiding van diens speech voor de American Bar Association over het beleid met betrekking tot fusies, �A history of convergence�. 2)
Ik schreef hem onder andere omdat enige maanden ervoor het Hof van Eerste Aanleg in een zeer belangrijke beroepszaak Monti�s beslissing over de fusie tussen Tetra-Laval en Sidel vernietigd had 3): de fusie mocht wel doorgaan.

Omdat in mijn ogen de overwegingen op basis waarvan het hof besloot Monti�s beslissing te verwerpen in vrijwel alle gevallen zullen opgaan gaf ik hem in overweging een geheel andere benadering te kiezen.

De in mijn ogen belangrijkste overweging was namelijk dat weliswaar door de fusie tussen bedrijven in aanpalende bedrijfstakken de door Monti aangevoerde hefboomwerking kon ontstaan maar niet bewezen was dat de nieuw ontstane onderneming er voordeel aan zou hebben om deze te benutten. Het hof richtte zich dus, eigenlijk in navolging van Monti zelf, op de bedoeling van de bedrijven: een heilloze weg.

Mijn voorstel ontleent haar kracht aan de simpelheid, het generieke karakter en de eenvoudige toepasbaarheid. Zeer kort samengevat luidt het : stel, na een ruime overgangsperiode, een maximum aan de grootte van ondernemingen die in de EU zaken willen (blijven) doen.

Een nadere toelichting staat in 4)
De (betere) Engelstalige toelichting en enige discussie is te vinden via 5)

G�tz Drauz, Directeur van de Merger Task Force van de Europese Commissie schreef me terug �I have some doubts as to the wisdom of placing arbitrary limitations of this kind on commercial activity here in Europe� maar ging daarbij dus volledig voorbij aan het feit dat mijn voorstel juist bij uitstek geen willekeur kent.

Om twee redenen wend ik me juist nu tot U met een tweetal vragen.

Een aanleiding is de berichtgeving over de samenwerking tussen de Duitse en Franse regering met betrekking tot industriepolitiek. (NRC-Handelsblad 1 juni �04 6)

De tweede aanleiding wordt natuurlijk gevormd door de komende verkiezingen.voor het Europees Parlement.

De vragen.
Vraag 1: Bent U van mening dat U zich straks, als lid van het Europees Parlement, ook over dit onderwerp zult moeten beraden ?

Vraag 2: Zo ja, wat vindt u van dit voorstel.
Zo nee, wilt u dit toelichten?


Vriendelijke groeten,
Frans Groenendijk

1) Brief aan Monti
2) Speech Monti
3) Uitspraak Hof van eerste aanleg
4) nl toelichting op voorstel
5) Engelse toelichting en discussie
6) Europees industriebeleid Franse stijl irriteert Berlijn"

"verordening betreffende de traceerbaarheid en etikettering van genetisch gemodificeerde organismen en de traceerbaarheid van met genetisch gemodificeerde organismen geproduceerde levensmiddelen en diervoeders"

"Het heeft er alle schijn van dat de discussie over etikettering wordt gebruikt om het huidige moratorium op de introductie van genetisch gemodificeerde producten in de EU te bestendigen, alsof men daarmee alle ondenkbare risico�s voor mens en milieu zou kunnen vermijden. Het is zeer de vraag of zo�n fundamentalistische houding ten aanzien van ggo�s niet leidt tot grotere risico�s in de toekomst.

"Someone posted a comment on Joshua Kaufman�s unraveled blog, signed it �zeldman,� and included my URL. As far as anyone reading unraveled could tell, I was the author of that comment.
It is an easy and obvious prank to pull. Go to a blog, write a silly or offensive comment, and sign it Jakob Nielsen or Instapundit or Kottke. Voila: instant controversy."

"What�s remarkable is that, despite the ease of achieving such pranks, few people indulge. The web depends on trust, and most people are worthy of it."

"An economic recovery is not real unless there is widespread participation in the economy, and the economic benefits accrue to a broad base of Americans. The current recovery appears to be failing that test. "

"Of course, a religious leader can build a political following, and accumulate a record as a political actor that makes his or her views of general interest. By the time Martin Luther King spoke out against the War in Vietnam, he was both the leader of a national movement and someone whose leadership on civil rights had generated for him considerable moral authority even among those who were neither his followers nor his co-religionists. That meant that his views, even on topics on which he wasn't an expert, were of general interest."

"From 1997 to 2000, he was commander-in-chief of the United States Central Command, in charge of all American troops in the Middle East. That was the same job held by Gen. Norman Schwarzkopf before him, and Gen. Tommy Franks after.
Following his retirement from the Marine Corps, the Bush administration thought so highly of Zinni that it appointed him to one of its highest diplomatic posts -- special envoy to the Middle East. "

"60 Minutes asked Secretary Rumsfeld and his deputy Wolfowitz to respond to Zinni's remarks. The request for an interview was declined."

"Yes, they are mad...His letter leaves it open for voters to ask: "If the President can grow the economy and create jobs, why did he wait until 2004 to do so? Why is employment still so much lower than it was in January 2001? Is it because job losses then meant falling wages and bigger profits--and big profits are the important thing for Bush in non-election years?"
Dangerous ground. "

"Contrary to what many "intellectuals", liberals, students, and others seem to think these days, the war in Iraq is not only justified, but will also prove to be well worth its while. For that to happen, however, the Bush administration needs to stay the course in Iraq and not bow to political and diplomatic pressure. A substantial long-term American military presence will be required."
and:
Once Iraq starts to stabilize (and again, it may take some time for that to happen, but happen it will), the benefits will be apparent to all. Freed of its cruel and oppressive dictator, and protected by a semi-permanent U.S. military presence, Iraq will eventually become a Western-style representative democracy that will transform the Middle East. Capitalism, trade with the United States and the West (and Israel), increased revenues from oil, and the prosperity that comes with it, will increase the standard of living for virtually all Iraqis. There will be talk of a "Mesopotamian renaissance" (you heard it here first). Iraq will attract international capital and investment, eventually tourism. Its universities will mold the brightest minds in the Middle East. Iraq will become the envy of the rest of the Arab Middle East, and will eventually come to influence and encourage democratic/secular movements in other Arab countries.

And the anti-war movement? Most who bought into it will deny ever having done so......Very few, if any, will admit to having marched in candlelight vigils in protest of a war that saved civilization in the Middle East.

Wanna bet?

" Could it be, as Rush Limbaugh mentioned in passing on a recent broadcast, that the perpetrators of the alleged crime are homosexuals? If that's the case, maybe the motivation for their activities was far different than from what has been discussed in the media's wall to wall coverage of this incident. If these individuals are homosexuals, maybe they were getting stimulated by looking at naked Iraqis in sexually provocative positions."

"The question begs to be asked. Who gave the now infamous pictures to CBS and for what reason? Was that person paid? What was their motive for providing the images to 60 Minutes? Could it have been to cause political damage to the Bush Administration?"

"move to counter voter apathy"

"Should the PES extend membership to individuals?"

"India shows strong economic progress � hopefully now also to the benefit of the poor people in the rural districts � and also something of what we understand by sustainability.

Europe must take advantage of this situation � revitalising not only trade negotations but also more actively seeking to improve working conditions and ensuring ILO minimum working standards for the Indian workforce.

In the globalisation era, we need Europe to be a frontrunner for a better agenda for all workers. This is also a signal in the context of the present trend of outsourcing. We are not against international work-sharing as a result of free trade. This has given us much growth and wealth � but the time has come to work for the creation of fairer conditions so that one day we will compete on the best working conditions and not on the worst."

" Voor Europa is het een uitdaging om - omringd door bureaucratie, religieus fundamentalisme en stalinistische naschokken - een democratische weg te gaan, die bestaande spanningen wegneemt en dialogen op gang brengt. Is dat links, is dat rechts? Laten we liever spreken in termen van eerlijkheid versus bedrog. Honderd procent eensgezindheid is een utopie. Altijd zullen belangen en meningen met elkaar botsen, maar laten we onze besluiten ten minste nemen op basis van complete en betrouwbare informatie. Alleen dan is zo'n besluit ook iets waard."

"The failure of the media to expose the torture story earlier, even as Pentagon sources and soldiers' families leaked information about the torture, reveals much about the balance in this story. It suggests that it came about less as a result of campaigning journalism and more as a result of pushiness on the part of aggrieved elements in the military or close to the military."

"Clarke was replaced by General Wayne Downing, a pro-Iraq war hawk. Nonetheless, he had a similar experience, lasting a total of 10 months before abruptly resigning in frustration at how the White House bureaucracy was responding to the terrorist threat. Downing was replaced by two men, General [John] Gordon, who lasted ten months before moving on to his homeland security job, and Rand Beers, who resigned in disgust over the Iraq war after seven months in his post. His experience was searing enough that he immediately joined the Kerry campaign. Beers was replaced by Townsend, who has now been tapped to replace Gordon, who is apparently resigning under circumstances similar to Clarke and Beers. "

"Pollsters have become our modern soothsayers, interpreting public opinion surveys with the gravity with which their predecessors read chicken entrails. Of course polls, k\like chicken entrails, can be ambiguous or people can change their minds -which happens from time to time- at wi\hich point there is a lemminglike rush to the newly popular view."