Words are insuffient here to convey my sorrow and sympathies for the Spanish people.

In news broadcasts, it has been very noticeable that those interviewed from what may be called Spain’s political establishment all expressed the conviction that this brutal outrage was undoubtedly the work of Eta, the Basque separatists, while independent news correspondents and British academics, specialsing in Spanish studies, were altogether more cautious about where to place responsibility.

It would not in the least surprise me to learn that the perpetrators were al-Qaeda connected. If so, it seems to have escaped their notice that while Aznar’s government was committed to supporting the Bush administration’s war in Iraq, reports of polls in Spain show that the majority of Spanish people were opposed to supporting the war, as in most other European countries.

I don’t see that there’s any good reason yet to assume that ETA wasn’t involved in this, regardless of any “Islamic” evidence that might have been found on the scene. See here for my thoughts on the matter.

“I don’t see that there’s any good reason yet to assume that ETA wasn’t involved in this”,

Don’t worry Abiola, I am not assuming it, I am just airing the other arguments whilst awaiting something more definitive.

Those guys who were arrested recently on route to the same area of Madrid with four times the quantity of semtex used today were clearly planning to do something with it. I just think we need to be more guarded now till there is something much clearer to go on.

You could look at this another way, if Eta weren’t involved in this in some way or another, what exactly are they planning to do, since the recent truce *just* for Catalonia clearly had some objective behind it.

“and British academics, specialsing in Spanish studies, were altogether more cautious about where to place responsibility.”

This may be true, but virtually all the voices I was listening to here this morning (not the politicians) were following the Eta trail. I more or less still am.

To me, given ETA’s radical Third Worldism and al-Qaeda upset with Spanish foreign policy, it seems entirely possible that this might be a joint operation between the two terrorist organizations. Or, perhaps with an ETA radical group and al-Qaeda.

Incidentally, I wonder, if al-Qaeda involvement is proved, what effect this might have on Spanish attitudes towards Moroccan/Muslim immigrants.

” I mean if this isn’t Eta, there has been a terrible failing in international security. The CIA has no information…”

I don’t mean to be nitpicking at a time like this, but it does seem from an American perspective that, if this indeed was an Al Qaeda hit, Europeans have let themselves be deluded that it couldn’t happen to them.

Were European security agencies as asleep as the CIA and FBI were, pre 9/11? Shouldn’t they have been more alert? Don’t the European security agencies rely more on human intel, instead of electronic eavesdropping? If that is the case, wasn’t surveillance practiced more diligently? And isn’t it plausible that terrorists by now know enough to shun electronics?

I’m curious as to the prevalence of surveillance cameras at the train station in Madrid. I assume that, because of ETA, there are. If there were indeed 10 or more coordinated attacks, there should at least be some possibility that some of the perpetrators were caught on camera.

In any case, I feel revolted and disgusted by this whole attack, and my heart goes out to all the victims and their families…

From the Financial Times:

“There are several reasons why Spain is an al-Qaeda target. The most current is its prominent role in Iraq, and the highly visible political support Mr Aznar gave to the US-led coalition before the invasion last March. Spain was singled out in statements issued by the al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden before the war in Iraq, and there have been several attacks on Spanish officials in Iraq.

“In the aftermath of the September 11 2001 attacks, Spanish investigators uncovered al-Qaeda cells and evidence that Islamists in Spain had helped the September 11 hijackers. New terrorist cells were also uncovered last year.

“Spain is also at the western extremity of the historical “umma”, the Islamic world, dating from when Andalusia was ruled by Muslims. It’s reincorporation into the Islamic world is a stated al-Qaeda goal.” - at: http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1078381711978

I wouldn’t be entirely shockied if it was combined operation. But if it was, and if I were European, I would be very very worried. A joint Al Qaeda - “local groups” set of alliances could be very damaging.

If it is ETA, it’s not the first bombing at Atocha Station. 29 July 1979: six dead in a 3 terrorist attacks: Madrid-Barajas airport and in the Chamartin et Atocha stations.

Thanks everyone for the comments, and please keep them coming in.

“To me, given ETA’s radical Third Worldism and al-Qaeda upset with Spanish foreign policy, it seems entirely possible that this might be a joint operation between the two terrorist organizations. Or, perhaps with an ETA radical group and al-Qaeda.”

Having said all of this, the Al Quaeda connection is still only one possible hypothesis. There is a clear difference in presentation of the facts between Spanish national and the autonomus regional TV stations (public TV is highly politicised here) and it is impossible to form a clear picture.

Many of us remember all too clearly the information war surrounding the Prestige: yesterday’s events unfortunately will not be no exception to this way of handling things.

Randy, this is a conclusion which is entirely plausible. Not perhaps for mainstream Eta, but for some splinter group or other.

I jumped so strongly on the Eta hypothesis not because I gave strong credibility to Spanish government sources, but becuase of this detail:

“Most recently, the official said, the police found the same explosive in a vehicle they intercepted last month as it was driven to Madrid by ETA militants. The police also found bomb-laden backpacks like those used in yesterday’s attacks when they foiled a bombing at a Madrid train station on Christmas Eve, an event they linked to ETA.”
New York Times

The fact that they had twice previously (and very recently) tried to get large quantities of the very class of explosives used into this exact area.

I think only time will tell now.

“Incidentally, I wonder, if al-Qaeda involvement is proved, what effect this might have on Spanish attitudes towards Moroccan/Muslim immigrants.”

This is really going to be the big and lasting impact of this if the Al Quaeda connection is established. I am pretty worried.

RSN

“I don’t mean to be nitpicking at a time like this, but it does seem from an American perspective that, if this indeed was an Al Qaeda hit, Europeans have let themselves be deluded that it couldn’t happen to them. “

This is not nitpicking, this is completely to the point. Local Catalan TV is already pointing to the kind of campaign the Blair government has run in the UK to inform people of the danger, and the complete lack of seriousness and preparation here in Spain.

Again, if this connection is established before Sunday, one of the key questions in the elections will be the style of governance of Aznar. Spanish people may or may not be prepared to assume the position of having a high anti-terrorist profile (opposition to the Iraq war was as everyone knows extraordinarily high here), but what they do seem to feel is that they have not been consulted as to their wishes.

“I’m curious as to the prevalence of surveillance cameras at the train station in Madrid. I assume that, because of ETA, there are. If there were indeed 10 or more coordinated attacks, there should at least be some possibility that some of the perpetrators were caught on camera.”

This is surely true, this, and interviewing the injured victims, should make it possible to clarify the situation reasonably rapidly.

It should be said that whilst the reputation of the Spanish police in routine criminal investigation is not of the highest, in anti-terrorist investigation they do seem fairly effective. They normally go after the right people, and they often find them. This situation should be no exception.

“Were European security agencies as asleep as the CIA and FBI were, pre 9/11? Shouldn’t they have been more alert?”

This question really does need asking. Where were they? Or were we all mesmerised by Eta?

Sebastian

“But if it was, and if I were European, I would be very very worried. A joint Al Qaeda - “local groups” set of alliances could be very damaging.”

Again, I very much agree. Fortunately there do not seem to seem to be too many ’local groups’ with the required characteristics. Eta is very much a legacy of Europe’s past right now (thankfully).

And if (and I say if) any Eta splinter group participation is established then Eta’s support among the Basques will surely deteriorate dramatically. Again I would go back to Otegi yesterday morning. How and why was he raising the Middle East connection so early? What was the basis for his confidence in this, what were his sources? Follow this trail, and you might get one step nearer the truth.

“Spain is also at the western extremity of the historical “umma”, the Islamic world, dating from when Andalusia was ruled by Muslims. It’s reincorporation into the Islamic world is a stated al-Qaeda goal.”

This is of course not without significance. In fact Bin Laden - in one of the widely distributed 09/11 videos - appears with a green line running half way across Spain, something which caused a lot of comment here. As one commentator explained on the TV last night, to really understand the Al Quaeda symobolism and language you need to go back to the medieval debates from the time of the ’crusaders’.

“As one commentator explained on the TV last night, to really understand the Al Quaeda symobolism and language you need to go back to the medieval debates from the time of the ’crusaders’.”

That’s credible enough although I’ve also read web commentary suggesting clear parallels between the stream of fascist ideology, in so far as it is coherent, and the particular fundamentalism of the Taliban/al-Qaeda axis. Perhaps too, there’s also a touch of masculine nostalgic yearning about preserving a life-style involving the subjugation of women: Osama Bin Laden is reported as having fathered some fifty something children.

OTOH on Britain’s involvelment in the the Iraq war, we have the perennial relevance of Orwell’s insight in The Road to Wigan Pier (1937):

“There is no doubt about the Englishman’s inbred conviction that those who live to the south of him are his inferiors; even our foreign policy is governed by it to some extent.” - from: http://orwell.ru/library/novels/The_Road_to_Wigan_Pier/e/ewp_04.htm

I do find it rather alarming to be told that the Iraq war was justified just because “it was the right thing to do”:

“It was a collective decision of the Government. We backed Tony Blair in all the difficult decisions he made. That was the right thing to do. It is still the right thing to do. No matter what the drama of individual debates or instances has been, you have got to get back to the central issues on which Tony spoke last week: was it right for Britain to take the action that removed Saddam Hussein? Yes.” - from: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2-1035085,00.html

Perhaps we might recall that before the outbreak of the Iraq war last March, there was no shortage of critical commentary then warning that war would likely stoke terrorism.

Edward: I’m thinking you’re reading way too much in Otegi’s statement. He just made the obvious point that, since it wasn’t ETA, the only other entity with motive and means to do this are the Islamists. Who else is there?
As time goes by, I find the possiblity of ETA involvement increasingly unlikely. It simply doesn’t make sense. Even if ETA is pretty much by now a principally criminal organization (and this seems pretty likely by now) it is still based on the kind of “soft support” in the Basque country that is bound to disintegrate after a blind attack such as this one. I remind you that the only remotely similar attack committed by ETA (the Barcelona supermarket bombings of 1987) was followed by a public apology “for the mistake”.
As for ETA-Islamist colaboration, that, I think belongs to the realm of wild speculation.
ETA and the Islamists have neither the connections nor the common purpose required for such a partnership. ETA would have nothing to gain by this alliance, and the Islamists frankly don’t need a dying infiltrated organization.

Of course I might be proven wrong very soon…

BTW I’m not believing a word of any Spanish official on this issue until *after* the elections.

“Of course I might be proven wrong very soon…”

Me too Talos, me too.

I understand perfectly your scepticism about the Spanish official declarations, the next two days are all about elections. Just forgive me if I keep my eyes very much pinned on Otegi until this is clarified.

Terrorism by any group is cruel and senseless.

My deepest sympathies to the people of Spain,a nd especially the families of the victims.

When something like this happens immediately before an election, I find it hard not to think that it is intended to influence the outcome of that election. I know it’s the classic conspiracy theory question, but, who stands to benefit? The rapid discovery of the unexploded bomb and the mobile phone which leads straight to the suspects may be excellent police work, but it does rather sound like bad fiction. Remember Bologna? Fascists have bombed Madrid before.