Best SpaceShipOne Pix

Thanks to Sandy
11:19:59 AM    trackback []  

The Most Overrated Medium

A graph of individual's average media usage in hours per year (in the US) shows that while Internet has grown steadily in the last seven years, cable and satellite TV have been even stronger, and radio also shows decent growth. The biggest loser in attention has been broadcast television. Newspaper reading has been on a slow decline, and is likely being passed by Internet this year.

The results get more interesting when combined with another chart showing total US advertising budgets in 2003, broken down by medium. While acknowledging some risk of mismatching categories due to separate sources, it's highly instructive to take the expenditures (in $m) by category and divide by the corresponding usage data. This will give an index of the relative costs of reaching an audience in the different media. This comes to roughly:

Comparative costs per viewer-hour

Cable TV	17
Radio	19
Internet	42
Network TV	55
Newspaper	250

The loser really sticks out, doesn't it? Newspapers are way out of band on costs, and are flatlined or worse on their audience. With their non-marketing ad revenues from classifieds already seriously eroding from the likes of eBay (garage sales), Autotrader, and Friendster (personals), the entire medium looks like a short. Dead tree news rags may be under attack for their credibility, but the real story is in the numbers: They are truly 'overrrated.'
1:48:08 PM    trackback []  

The Points for the Pitch

One commenter suggests first engaging the VC in the meeting by asking their view of the market, and why the company was picked to pitch. I disagree on this one. I don't want my own views reflected back at me. I want to hear the entrepreneur's view of the market and the company's value add. The situation will get interactive soon enough if we're interested. At least at our place, it's a very bad sign to get through the first 15 minutes without being interrupted by questions.
3:17:49 PM    trackback []  

Joel on APIs: A Historical Perspective

Though I've not had to suffer through the travails of COM and .NET as has Joel, I've seen the effects. He's dead on about the investor sentiment. The purpose of this post is to add a little historical perspective that might suggest where things go next.

Once upon a time computers were - well - computers. That is, machines mostly used for calculation. Those of us of an age carried card decks as supplicants to the glass temples of the mainframes. Later on, TTYs and 3270s replaced the card decks for data entry, and many could use the same machine at once. This was called timesharing. One machine, many users, all the same interface.

Then came the PC. The computer became personal, and as such its nature changed. Whether used for calculation (Visicalc) or writing (Wordstar, Word), it became a personal tool, an extension of the user. The computer as tool was best when it got out of the way, and presented the task in its own terms as much as possible. Hence, the rise of direct manipulation interfaces, with Mac and later Windows as their embodiment. This is the type of software which Joel calls 'rich clients'.

The advent of 'multimedia' and CD-ROMs gave the first hint of the next evolution of computers - into communications devices. This hit its full stride with the coming of the commercial Internet, the Web, and the social acceptance of e-mail. The relative asymmetry between creators and readers put more emphasis on predictability in the interface, rather than power as a tool. 'Computers as media' are following previous new media, by evolving into genre of usage which provide simple, recognizable patterns for messages (you're looking at one of them). Although some of the data elements used are called 'rich media', the computer itself is just a conduit for that data delivery.

The power of Microsoft rose with the rich, direct manipulation, GUI software of the PC age. But 'timesharing' as concept never died during that era. It faded into the background, and remained a latent competitor. How have the two styles fared as the battle moved on from computer as calculator or tool, to communications device?

It should be clear that timesharing has been reborn in new clothes. Now we call it 'salesforce.com' and 'Google'. The 3270 of old is now an HTML or XML browser. This interface has absorbed most of the new values of the communications function: Web, blogs, increasingly e-mail. The genre of the Internet are evolving to fit the limits of the browser, for better or worse. The business models are subscription, fee for service, or advertising. With the foundational layers of server software increasingly commoditized, investment flows towards value added services, and once again toward complex calculations - analytics, ad targeting, etc.

The rich client is struggling. In retrospect, the attempt to introduce 3D to the browsing interface in the mid-90s looks like a prelude to its descent. In the end, users wanted simplified access to information more than a 'richer' tool that introduced its own set of problems. The same fate has met most attempts to create 'rich' client dependencies, often in the service of advertisers. The only domain in which the full client platform is exploited and pushed is gaming. A growing business, but not one on which to balance the whole Windows franchise.

Elsewhere, the client side is stagnant and investment stays away. Though Microsoft apparently recognizes many of the information management problems that the combination of PC and Internet has created for users, its solution - Longhorn - keeps slipping out in time and losing relevance. GMail and other net-borne palliatives are already arriving.

I am not forecasting the death of the PC. Larry Ellison already tried that once. It will be with us for a long time to come, due to its overwhelming scale economies. It will still run all of the tools that we use to create information: Word, Photoshop, Powerpoint and the rest. It will be a terminal for the new timesharing, and a conduit for the Internet as medium. But it is no longer the location of new investment and innovation, and Microsoft's ability to extract revenue, margins, and strategic advantage must fade accordingly. Joel's right: The heart of the Windows franchise is rotting.
2:04:28 PM    trackback []  

SS1 > 100km: We're on our way again

For the first time in many a long year, it feels like we're on a path to space that might be sustainable for the long run. The mainstream press and the space bloggers are rightfully banging on about the potential for a 'space tourist' revenue stream that will make this all more than a very costly form of ego-boo for billionaires. For instance, Dale Amon has some worthy reflections. So perhaps I'll fill in by pointing out a few other straws in the wind that might indicate other potential revenue flows for both SpaceShipOne-like architectures, and other low-cost suborbital / LEO attempts:

Over at DARPA's Tactical Technology Office, there are a variety of relevant programs. RASCAL intends to use a space plane based on modified fighter jet engines, which will carry a conventional rocket second stage capable of launching small satellites to LEO. Orbital Express is an effort to design constellations of such small satellites that could substitute for today's megabirds. And here are some new propulsion systems scaled to the appropriate size. Another launcher program, FALCON is intended to fly suborbital payloads to anywhere in the world from the continental US. Think of it as an extremely long range JDAM.

The point isn't that any of these programs are going to match 1-1 with the X-Prize vehicles, but they do indicate a latent demand for much the same payload / energy configurations being pioneered there. And a little digging around will find some of the same private companies involved in engine and airframe development.

And though my faith in NASA is pretty small - as both a space buff and investor - they are at least nominally committed to moving in a way that will create further demand rather than competition for private space. Excerpting from T. L. James' useful summary of the Aldridge Report:

Recommendation 3-1

The Commission recommends NASA recognize and implement a far larger presence of private industry in space operations with the specific goal of allowing private industry to assume the primary role of providing services to NASA, and most immediately in accessing low-Earth orbit....

Recommendation 5-1

The Commission recommends NASA aggressively use its contractual authority to reach broadly into the commercial and nonprofit communities to bring the best ideas, technologies, and management tools into the accomplishment of exploration goals.

Recommendation 5-2

The Commission recommends that Congress increase the potential for commercial opportunities related to the national space exploration vision by providing incentives for entrepreneurial investment in space, by creating significant monetary prizes for the accomplishment of space missions and/or technology developments and by assuring appropriate property rights for those who seek to develop space resources and infrastructure.

So the game is afoot, and the learning curve begins. For those of us who grew up with Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo, this may be a reliving of our childhood. For those growing up today, they may have more of a hope that this time it will stick to the wall.
4:11:45 PM    trackback []  

Sic transit gloria Orkut.

I'm wondering a bit about Google. Orkut. Blogger is still bloggered, and has competitors like fleas. Search still rocks, and the advertising model has good traction. But the rest looks increasingly like a bag of minimally coordinated projects. Time for a little triage, post the quiet period and IPO, I would think. Schwerpunktsbildung, Herr Schmidt!
6:02:40 PM    trackback []  

It's going to be a bit quiet around here

8:48:40 PM    trackback []  

Winds of Discovery

Check it out, including Glenn's and my mini-debate about pharma policy.
12:51:27 PM    trackback []  

Learning curves on the final frontier

Hat tip: VodkaGuy
2:34:27 PM    trackback []  

Spirit of America quick updates

• COO Marc Danziger and Logistics Director Kerry Dupont are interviewed by Doug Kaye
• Continuous coverage at Britt Blaser's place
• Update at Winds of Change
• Dave winers SoA. Blaser fisks Winer. Every circus needs a sideshow.
• Over 300 inbound blog links to spiritofamerica.net as of this AM. Thanks to everyone, especially those I hit on. Bloggers are great! I hope VCs turn out to be as well.
• Look for a house blog and blogger Real Soon Now.
• More anon.
  11:05:17 AM    trackback []  

Peoples' War, Peoples' Peace

Anyone in the VC line of things has the need to frequently recall Napoleon's adage: "Never ascribe to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence." I think that's what's going on here, and it is not meant to disparage any of the contractors or even the CPA. There's a kind of inherent incompetence of large, bureaucratic organizations when it comes to dealing with needs on an individual and small scale. There are intrinsic problems of bigness that give us all fits dealing with government bureaus and contracting regulations here. Now take that institutional logic, plop it down in the middle of Baghdad, and bugger its improvised plans with a mix of terror and outright thievery. Watch the poor elephant try to dance.

Too bad it's not just a B-school case study. Hell, too bad it's not just one of my companies. Unfortunately, it's a part of the thing that may matter most in the world today: To find out whether American and Arab can hope to shake hands and live and prosper together, or whether it's going to be war to the knife. And things aren't looking all that great.

It's part of the peculiar spirit of both America and Silicon Valley that people take things into their own hands when the management fails us. We've come to one of those times. If you've been following the plot line around here, you know what I'm about to pitch, so here goes:

There's a grassroots effort called Spirit of America, that is organizing to connect ordinary American citizens as contributors to small scale projects that benefit ordinary Iraqis. It started collecting Frisbees and school and medical supplies to send to Iraq with the Marines. Then they tried an effort to provide video equipment to start up Iraqi TV stations in the Sunni triangle. Which got noted by the Wall Street Journal, and suddenly a $100k ask turned into a $1.5m raise. Talk about an oversubscribed round! Based on that, the folks behind the original effort are trying to take this to a national level, that is sustainable for as long as it takes.

My friend Marc Danziger has taken on the role of COO at Spirit of America. Part of that scaling up is the audacious goal of staging a major media campaign beginning in mid-June, with the further goal of involving a million Americans in some way by the 4th of July. I've volunteered to help. We're still figuring out what that means, largely by jumping in and seeing what happens.

I've already hustled a few of my blogging friends for posts and links to SoA - thank you!! We are trying to create a baseline public awareness through blogs, in preparation for the bigger launch. If you're a VC who's in my Palm, you are hereby warned that I will be trying to 'raise a round' for these guys in the very near future.

Since I know this blog (or its RSS) gets around to some part of the technical community, I'll also put out this ask: SoA is going to need some further serious help on building a backend system to match their goals. Big pipe hosting, content management, project tracking, contributor and project matching - you get the picture. If you've got real chops in these areas, and have suggestions, recommendations of good people and companies, or even better the desire to pitch in, my e-mail address is over there to the left. We're not expecting free, but we really need fast and flexible, and discounts wouldn't hurt. I'll collate any inputs and funnel them to the folks already working the tech beat, so they aren't swamped any more than already.

If you don't fit any of those categories, we still need you! Just click on this banner (the first one that has ever turned up on Due Diligence), and it'll take you over to Spirit of America:

Still here? So let me tell you what we're asking for over there. The simplest ask is just to join the SoA mailing list. They've already got my name from an earlier contribution, and never violated trust - it's not going to be a spamfest. This will let SoA keep you up to date on the programs that are getting ready to launch (OK, are being figured out as I write).

Secondly, you could drop some bucks. There are some worthy projects already underway that could use your support. Just look down the left sidebar for your fave, and hit the Paypal button.

You could also volunteer to help. Since the needs are - dynamic, let us say - just go on over there to see the latest list.

Lastly, it should be noted that is an explicitly NON-partisan effort. You don't have to be an R or a D or anything else to believe that the Iraqis have been crapped on by both their and our governments, and deserve our help, for all our sakes. I'll borrow the words of former Dean campaign manager Britt Blaser:

"...there's no part of the SoA project that any of us can find fault with. If you're a bleeding heart liberal, you want to demonstrate that people who hate the war can reach out to the people hurt by our government's illegitimate war. Rabid war supporters see a chance to demonstrate that the war can be won because the greatest American force is the innate goodness of the American GI, and that it's worth going to war to connect our terrific GI's with Arab kids. I can walk both sides of that street. "

So what do we want, folks? Mano a mano, or hand in hand, there and here? No guarantees of success whatsoever, but what would you rather be working towards?
11:28:10 PM    trackback []  

Q&A; with Iraqis

It started when Sarmad, an Iraqi civil engineer posting at Road of Nation started putting up questions for his audience from a set of anonymous Iraqis, including Kurds, on issues regarding the war and the occupation. He got a large, and mostly straightforward, set of responses from Americans and others, with far less trolling and flaming than the typical. (If you visit, note that Sarmad's English was likely learned verbally. His spelling is often nonstandard. Sound it out, as my grade school teachers used to say. It's worth it. He also just lost four of his colleagues in a terror attack. Sympathies are in order.)

Naturally, some of the commenters started asking questions in return, some of which were taken to Sarmad's friends and a collection of replies then posted. One helpful reader of the site has created an index to those question topics and replies. Remember these Q&As; have been translated into Arabic and back again by non-professionals, so the language and cultural gaps are on full display.

(Update 6/4: A moderated Iraqi to rest of world discussion board is being started.)

In the latest development, another Iraqi blogger Alaasmary has collected a panel of five Iraqis to answer questions being collected in his comments. They include (variously) an ex-Iraqi Air Force colonel, a taxi driver, a woman, two civil engineers and an electrical worker. A long and interesting list of questions for them is already accumulating.

From all the interactions I've had with the readers of this blog, you are a civil and intelligent lot, but I'm nonetheless going to say this explicitly: If you go over there, please be both open and respectful. This a chance to talk directly without the fog of Al Jazeera and CNN propaganda. Let's not mess it up.
11:35:05 AM    trackback []  

More Lions around the Valley

I've been hiking the Bay Area hills for nearly twenty years now, and have yet to see a big cat. Some bobcat, a lot of coyotes, but no lions. Dang. Here kitty, kitty....
10:34:47 AM    trackback []