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  • Previous posting: John Edwards joins the Kerry ticket; July 6, 2004; 8:41 a.m.
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  • July 9, 2004; 4:48 p.m.
    Bush ads with McCain do not help him with Independents

    Those of us in Texas do not have the honor of watching many political ads unless we are watching cable like Fox news and CNN. But the two campaigns did run out some new ads this week and they are getting some media attention. The interesting news in the following report from My Lipz.com, that the Bush ads with John McCain did not play well with Independents. Independents will decide this election and in 2000 made up a lot of the support that McCain received in the GOP primary, if they could vote in that primary. So in case you missed the ads here is Lipz’s report:

    “Edwards, McCain Positively Impact Newest Presidential Ads

    ---------- There was a marked difference this week in the political ads run by the campaigns. The introduction of Vice-Presidential Candidate John Edwards produced the expected rise in interest in the Kerry ad. Meanwhile, the surprise use of John McCain in the Bush ad "First Choice"­a dig based on the rumor that McCain was Kerry's first choice for Vice-President­caused a strong increase in positive reactions to Bush's advertising.

    The research reinforced the idea that there is a high degree of political polarization based on party affiliation. Democrats and Republicans continue to routinely support their party's ads, even in areas not dependent upon the candidate's policies or the ad's message. One clear example is found on the question of whether the ads are “attention-getting." Bush's ad got the attention, at some level, of 89.55% of Republicans, while Kerry's ad could only get the attention of 29.23%. Meanwhile, 53.50% of Democrats responded that Bush's ad got their attention at some level, while 81.20% thought that Kerry's ad was attention-getting.

    McCain's presence caused a strong increase in overall positive reaction numbers. Take emotional reaction for instance. Research on the last Bush ad released showed that only 10.19% felt competent, confident, in control, proud while watching the ad. Meanwhile, 39.45% of viewers felt that way while watching the current ad. Whereas only 9.36% of survey participants felt wishful, desirous, hopeful while watching the last Bush ad, 25.88% of viewers felt those emotions while watching the current ad.

    Attributing these vigorous increases to McCain's presence seems logical when one considers that participants felt greater interest and believability while watching McCain than while watching Bush. The advertisement, even though its title card notes that McCain is speaking about Bush, carefully avoi! ds showi ng the President until McCain is halfway through his introduction. The exact point before Bush is shown, the 32nd second mark in the one minute ad, is the high point in interest and believability ratings. Once Bush appears, the numbers decline sharply. Believability falls approximately ten points in the first six seconds after Bush appears; interest falls about five points in the first two.

    While positive reactions to Bush have increased overall, their influence on voters may be negligible. Among independents, the ads were almost equally effective in making viewers feel more likely to vote for the candidate being promoted: 34.02% responded thusly for Bush, 35.96% for Kerry. But the Bush ad performed significantly worse when one compares how many independents were less likely to vote for a candidate based upon the latest ad. 27.84% of independents who viewed the Bush ad felt less likely to vote for him, while only 10.11% felt similarly about the Kerry ad”

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    About Read My Lipz.com

    Read My Lipz is a privately funded non-partisan media service developed in order to accurately survey and report the impact of political media campaigns. Survey data is collected and analyzed by HCD Research and Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion (MCIPO).


  • Previous posting: John Edwards joins the Kerry ticket; July 6, 2004; 8:41 a.m.
  • Complete archive