Antidiscrimination Law (or, the Dropout Anti-Employment Act)

Recently, a discussion of a hate crimes post on this site included a discussion of anti-discrimination law. I would like to focus on anti-discrimination law specifically, and point out pernicious effects that I rarely see addressed.

Let's take the "ideal" anti-discrimination law, one that doesn't involve any affirmative action requirements. The idea is that the government is making it illegal to refuse to hire/promote/retain a person if you're doing it because he's a "minority". If you do the exact same thing for some other reason, then in theory you are complying with the law.

This goes even further than "hate crimes" law or any other law. In the "hate crimes" case, an act that is already wrong, when it's motivated by "hate", is an even worse offense than that act usually is. In the case of employment discrimination law, an act that is morally neutral (refusing to trade with a given person) becomes wrong when the act is motivated by a "wrong" reason, but remains morally neutral when the act is not motivated by such a reason.

How on Earth do you enforce such a law? Without a mind-reading device, such a law cannot be properly enforced, except in a few cases where the law is lucky enough to find a damning paper trail or recording. For the rest of the cases, you have to look at hiring activity, and divine the employer's intention from that.

Now anyone who offers employment will have a (nearly) constant number of positions to offer, a set of people he hires, a set of people he refuses to hire, and a set of people (more than a quarter-billion strong) who never present themselves for his consideration. Assuming that applicants outnumber jobs, every time he hires a person A, he must simultaneously reject some other person B. That means that punishing him for refusing to hire person B for whatever reason is logically equivalent to punishing him for hiring some other person who is not B.

Now remember that there are no mindreading devices. To even come close to enforcing the law properly, the employer must now be held to account for every hiring decision he makes, for every person he brings on board. Regardless of what is taken as evidence of his motivation for hiring A or for not hiring B, the result is that the employer will have to be ready at all times to prove to a jury that A was in fact the most qualified person available.

How do you prove such a thing to strangers who can't read your mind, weren't there for the interview, and in any event will never lose or gain any money based on whether your evaluation of everyone's qualifications was correct? A good way to prove it is with documentary evidence. If person A has a generally recognized credential stating that he is qualified for the position and person B does not, the employer can prove his case and have a verdict in his favor. If person A does not have such a credential and person B does, regardless of whether the employer had another perfectly good reason for choosing A that isn't so good at convincing a jury, his odds of a favorable verdict go down considerably.

Continue reading "Antidiscrimination Law (or, the Dropout Anti-Employment Act)"

Sandy Bottom

So far, the Sandy Berger story looked like your typical election-year scandal. Someone gets caught red-handed and political opponents play it to the hilt; given the pounding Republicans have been taking in the press following the release of the Senate Intelligence Committee report, the timing of this story, the former position of its central character and its connection with the 9/11 commission were all so ideal for a GOP counter-offensive that many of us were discounting much of the noise as standard political posturing.

Except Berger's claims of an "honest mistake" are starting to look exceedingly weak, and although, in my opinion, they are not quite up there with Joseph Wilson IV's cloak-and-dagger Niger tales yet, the leak's potential for political damage could well be much higher.

After one of his visits to the Archives last fall, one of the government officials said, Berger was alerted to the missing documents and later returned some of the materials. On subsequent visits by Berger, Archives staffers specially marked documents he reviewed to try to ensure their return. But the government official said some of those materials also went missing, prompting Archives staffers to alert federal authorities.

In other words, Berger made an "honest mistake" once, was told about it, and did it again. And again. Stuffing documents in his clothes to bypass security protocols which, for classified documents in such facilities, usually involve a search of your bag(s) and/or briefcase(s) on the way out.

Is this the pattern of an honest one-off mistake ? And if not, what about those documents that Berger "accidentally" discarded ? Interestingly, Slate's Today's Papers columnist claims they were written by Richard Clarke.

The plot thickens.

Update : As usual, Scrappleface has the real scoop.

Jacques A Dit

Ever the nuanced, diplomatic head of state, Jacques Chirac is so offended by accusations of French anti-semitism that Ariel Sharon is not welcome there anymore. (As if he had been before...)

French President Jacques Chirac informed Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon he is not welcome in Paris after he urged all French Jews to leave the country immediately, Israeli television reported.

Honestly, there is no anti-semitism in France; "it's just that we hate Israel and its prime minister".

Illegitimate, corrupt, murderous African tyrants are of course always welcome.

No, Really! This is a Serious Question

So I'm talking to a co-worker named Phil, and he tells me that he's frothing mad. He's been writing Cecil at The Straight Dope for months and never saw his question appear in print. The question in question is.....

"If intelligent space aliens were to land on Earth and present themselves, is it likely that we would find them using double entry accounting"

I had pretty much the same reaction that you're probably having right now. He's a bit odd, wondering about the way our new galactic overlords keep track of accounts recievable. But he clarified it and I realized that it was a very serious question indeed.

"Is double entry accounting just one of any number of equally good methods for managing scarce resources-or is there something that makes it uniquely fitting for the task?"

"Could it be that it's prevalence in the business world owes only to the desirability of using a universally understood method? If not, is it superior to all other known methods? Could it even be thought of almost like being a law of nature?"

The main thing that I know about double entry bookkeeping is it's historical impact. Used with the new Arab numerical system, it allowed businesses to expand during the latter part of the Dark Ages. In fact, some people even say that this accounting method spelled the end to the Medieval Period by promoting trade.

So are there equally effective methods out there? If so, why aren't they better known? And, of course, is the system so tuned to basic reality that it could be thought of as a reflection of basic accounting truths?

I'll leave it up to you guys. There's got to be someone who knows this accounting stuff who's also writing for this blog.

Robert Oppenheimer: Soviet Spy?

It's long been common knowledge that Robert Oppenheimer was sympathetic to communist ideology, to say the very least. His brother, sister-in-law, wife and mistress were all members of the Communist Party of the USA (CPUSA). The established historical view that is presented of Oppenheimer is that while he had flirted with communism (as indeed, had many intellectuals in the 1920's and 1930's) there was no evidence that he ever been less than loyal.

In 1954, Lewis Strauss, first chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission (AEC), called for the removal of Oppenheimer's security clearance after reviewing his intelligence dossier. William Borden, chief counsel on Congress's Joint Comittee on Atomic Energy during the debate on whether to pursue the development of a hydrogen bomb (something Oppenheimer opposed for philosophical and technical reasons) wrote a letter to J.Edgar Hoover in which he wrote:

"...my own exhaustively considered opinion, based upon years of study of the available classified evidence, that more probably than not J.Robert Oppenheimer is an agent of the Soviet Union."

The AEC subsequently conducted hearings to determine Oppie's fitness to retain a security clearance. At the conclusion of those hearings his clearance was withdrawn.

Continue reading "Robert Oppenheimer: Soviet Spy?"

Willed Values & the Law

Arts & Letters links to Stacy A. Teicher’s “A Fresh Definition of Inheritance Comes Into Vogue”. Apparently experts (some legal) are now employed in writing “ethical wills” in which one generation wills its values to the next. While these date back to the 1970’s (this was a new concept to me), as Teicher observes, it has “ancient precedents.” What we want to give our children are the nuggets we have mined through painful experience; what we want to give them is a refined version of us. The essay concluded with links to two websites and a do-it-yourself guide from the Jewish Ethical Wills Society.

All emphasize the spiritual nature of such a legacy and, indeed, one author, Barry K. Baines, won an award for one of the “Best Spiritual Books 2002.” While some jargon is that of the courtroom, of apportionment of material goods, all understand that what is being discussed here is not the stuff of pre-nups and property.

Both sites extract money in exchange for an expert’s aid in finding that in communicating those truths in a form later generations recognize and use. At first, I felt critical. But, I admit ours has become a society of “experts” in service; summing up one’s life and what one has learned is likely to be difficult. As an expert at acrylic nails or Christmas lights or even the quite meaningful wedding dinner can help us, why shouldn’t we use someone’s services for this more complex task?

Continue reading "Willed Values & the Law"

That's Entertainment!

This Land!
Founding Fathers Rap

Head Games

You can discover what your enemy fears most by observing the means he uses to frighten you.
Eric Hoffer

Time to call Jacques in Paris and negotiate those second-hand guillotines ?

Photoblog Update

I posted some new stuff. Check it out.

Hate Crimes

Ian Murray at The Edge of England's Sword has an interesting post on a proposal by British MP and Home Secretary, David Blunkett, to ban expressions of religious hatred. He's not impressed.

I couldn't help but think how his arguments apply to the larger issue of hate crimes in general. Here's an example:

Case 1
A man is assaulted and beaten unconcious by a white supremist because he's 'a nigger'.
Case 2
A man is assaulted and beaten unconcious by a deranged homophobe because he's 'a fag'.
Case 3
A man is assaulted and beaten unconcious by a street thug for his wallet.

In cases 1 & 2, a hate crime has occurred. In case 3, a robbery. Yet in each case the hypothetical victim was assaulted and beaten unconcious. The end result, the injury sustained, was identical. Were we to punish these crimes diffferently, what would be the rationale? That an additional crime is committed by virtue of the perpetrator's thoughts? It's difficult, to say the least, to determine a person's motivation. How do you see into a person's heart? What is to be the measure of the 'hatred' if the end result is equivalent? Is crime #2 more hateful than crime #3?

Continue reading "Hate Crimes"

Bald Cow Concert Photos!

Click here to see a photo gallery (also permalinked under Lex's music links on the right margin of this page).

Previous Bald Cow posts are here, here, here and here.

Shit happens

C-SPAN 1 & 2 (times e.t.)

This Sunday Booknotes (8:00 p.m. and again 11:00) on C-SPAN 1 features Mark Perry, author of Grant and Twain: The Story of a Friendship that Changed America. The book describes both men’s lives and the loyalty between them that produced Grant’s memoirs. In the “Grant” spirit, CSPAN2 at 4:30 Sunday afternoon offers Edward Bonekemper discussing his Grant: A Victor, Not a Butcher: Ulysses S. Grant’s Overlooked Military Genius.

Continue reading "C-SPAN 1 & 2 (times e.t.)"

English/Liberal Phrasebook

Sometimes it seems like we're not all speaking the same language. It sounds the same, but doesn't always mean the same. The ancient sages struggled with this, too:

'When I use a word,' Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean--neither more nor less.'

'The question is,' said Alice, 'whether you CAN make words mean so many different things.'

'The question is,' said Humpty Dumpty, 'which is to be master--that's all.'

With that in mind, I offer a few handy words and phrases in Liberal, with their approximate meanings in plain English.

UPDATE: Don't skip the comments — they're full of things I wish I had though of. Also in the same category, check out the Fashionable Dictionary.

Continue reading "English/Liberal Phrasebook"

Image hosting

I now set up my own website so I can host images from there. Jonathan offered to host my images via Chicagoboyz, but I don't want to hog the space when my ISP offers some for free anyway. I tried the Yahoo photo service and Geocities first, for they are free too and don't require the use of FTP programs, but they cut way down on the image size and don't let you directly link to your images.

Update: I replaced the original one for a smaller image. Sorry about the inconvenience.

Quote of the Day

A blog is one of the most effective means known to consume an individual's time. OTOH a group blog leverages network effects and therefore is able to consume the time of many individuals.

   - ChicagoBoyz Illuminatus

Moon Landings Hoax

It's time we faced the truth. The evidence is irrefutable.

Countdown to ROCK

New Muffs Album, Really, Really Happy is due out on August 10th. I have a suspicion it is going to be unbelievably brilliant.

(Pre-order this baby right here. I just did.) (The Muffs' official website is here.)

Start being really, really happy.

Quote of the Day

Peggy Noonan in the WSJ:

I do not feel America is right to attempt to help spread democracy in the world because it is our way and therefore the right way. Nor do I think America should attempt to encourage it because we are Western and feel everyone should be Western. Not everyone should be Western, and not everything we do as a culture, a people or an international force is right.

Rather, we have a national-security obligation to foster democracy in the world because democracy tends to be the most peaceful form of government. Democracies tend to be slower than dictatorships to take up arms, to cross borders and attempt to subdue neighbors, to fight wars. They are on balance less likely to wreak violence upon the world because democracies are composed of voters many of whom are parents, especially mothers, who do not wish to see their sons go to war. Democracy is not only idealistic, it is practical.

(via Instapundit)

It's Not As Bad As Some People Think

Anecdotes like this one (via Andy B) make me a little less worried about the decline of our society. They provide some evidence that not only are leftists like Michael Moore, who hold Americans in contempt, mistaken, but so to some extent are conservatives who fret about cultural decadence. Whatever the social problems caused by the welfare state and government schools, and there are many, most Americans still seem to turn out OK.

Perhaps intellectuals, both left and right, worry too much.

Jews and Gun Ownership

Here's an excellent post on Samizdata that you should read if you are interested in right-to-arms and self-defense issues, and particularly if you are a Jewish liberal.

Bastille Day

It was yesterday and to my great shame, I forgot to celebrate the good old days when the old country's "position of principle" was to actually topple tyranny at home and abroad.

I do miss watching the Champs Elysees military parade on TV, usually followed by the family lunch and the Tour de France.



Back in 2002, West Point was invited.

Hammering Away

This post by Michael Hiteshew details the reasons why he supports nuclear power. He says that it’s due to his commitment to environmental concerns that drives his interest.

That’s very much the same reason why I went nuclear myself. But this isn’t a new idea. I was first introduced to the concept that nuclear power was environmentally friendly way back in 1977 through a science fiction book. (I’m sure that Jay Manifold will approve.)

The book is entitled Lucifer’s Hammer, and it’s written by Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle. The story is about what happens when some pieces of a comet strike the Earth, essentially ending civilization.

The first half of the book is character intro and setup. Plenty of space is used for Larry to preach about how the environmental lobby is killing our future. The second half is concerned with the main character's efforts to survive.

I have no idea if this work has been updated or not. The original has become seriously dated in the past 25 years. In the book, the Space Shuttle has yet to fly. Russia is still Soviet. Johnny Carson is on TV and calculators cost hundreds of dollars.

My advice is to pick up a copy and give it a read. Dated or not it still has something to offer.

"Mobile" vs. "Immobile" Civilizations

That's how Reuven Brenner, in this recent column, characterizes the struggle between the democratic West and Islamic fundamentalism. Brenner's argument is interesting.

It is easy to criticize both grandiose thesis and narrow ones. To come up with a different way of perceiving the events and offer solutions is a bit harder. Yet this brief does just that. It shows that today's conflict between Islamic groups and the West, as well as within Islamic societies, can be viewed as one between "mobile" and "immobile" civilizations, whose members can be found in every society. What distinguishes the US is that it has far more people sharing the outlook of a "mobile civilization" than any other country. And what characterizes many Islamic countries is that they have a large number of people sharing the values of an "immobile" civilization. "Relativist" orthodoxy notwithstanding, one point I make is that although one can understand the values and ideals of "immobile societies", as fitting certain situations, there cannot be a compromise between these two civilizations. Today's circumstances - demographic in particular - require moves toward "mobility".

Continue reading ""Mobile" vs. "Immobile" Civilizations"

Shooting Yourself In The Foot

...can in fact be the better alternative.

High Fad Content

The whole organic food thing is not new, but you know you're dealing with a profitable marketing goldmine when a newspaper can publish a whole article about organic pet food sales rising 63%.

Another interesting one is "fair-trade" coffee, a somewhat expensive and pretentiously fashionable item in some nouveau-snob quarters of Europe. (For all of you ignorant greedy Americans, 'fair' means three times the open market price or more.)

My first encounter with the actual product was in an Oxfam store in Dublin. (Yes, I did use that overseas assignment to try all the unhealthy and disreputable things I wouldn't do at home.) According to the karma-inducing packaging, this 100% politically-correct coffee was marketed by Cafe Direct from the UK. Not surprisingly, the company's annual report is generous in its quotes of Oxfam's predictably anti-trade/anti-corporate report. You scratch mine, I wipe yours. As it so happens, Oxfam is a founder and shareholder of Cafe Direct. Small world. In other words, the organization has a direct financial incentive to promote the fair-trade coffee cause. Conflict of interest ? Of course not. You can trust them. They say so themselves.

Dictionary Moment

I love dictionaries. But once in a while, you look something up and that first definition makes you regret it . See elegiac for instance:

1 a : of, relating to, or consisting of two dactylic hexameter lines the second of which lacks the arsis in the third and sixth feet

Right. Duh, even.

What if....

One thing you can't fault Michael Moore for is the honesty of his marketing. With Stupid White Men, the intended target audience was clearly labeled on the cover. With Fahrenheit 9-11, the catchy subtitle says it all : "The Temperature At Which Truth Burns". You can't miss it : it says right there on the packaging that it's about cooking the truth in the oven, extra-crispy please and do you want fries with that ?

To the distress of my conservative friends who often believe I am but one step from the dark side - while the left-wing ones call me "right-wing", together with anyone who disagrees with them on anything - I do admire Moore's shrewdness as a businessman and marketer. And, as usual, Mark Steyn puts it better than me :

I can understand the point of being Michael Moore: there's a lot of money in it. What's harder to figure out is the point of being a devoted follower of Michael Moore.

Exactly. Whether you like the product or not, there are clearly millions to be made being a big fat gasbag singing political loony tunes, producing documentary-style sci-fi and selling humorous intellectual fast-food. And Moore is so good at it all that he has made himself into an international brand. A largely fragmented and local market has for all practical purposes been taken over by Moore, Inc. It might not have the bigger market share everywhere, but it certainly rakes in more money than anyone else.

So for all the unavoidable Moore-bashing - and I love shooting fat elephants in narrow alleyways as much as the next guy - he's only filling a demand and satisfying a market. You know, those "nuanced", "progressive" people who are too smart to compare Saddam Hussein with Hitler but have no moral or intellectual qualms calling the President of the U.S. a Nazi, when America itself is not the "biggest terrorist organization on the planet" and Israel a "rogue state". In other words, fair and balanced individuals. You know who I'm talking about. So does Steyn.

I saw it over the weekend on my side of the Atlantic, with an audience comprised wholly of informed, intelligent sophisticates.

I knew they were informed, intelligent sophisticates because they howled with laughter at every joke about what a bozo Bush is.

And that is where Moore's genius resides. For a few decades, most communists, socialists, liberals and the rest of the left-leaning world were either too radical, too broke or too educated and high-brow for profitably crass popular entertainment. When they were not high on weed and other less natural substances, like everybody else at the time. (To my knowledge, only Homer Simpson does antacid trips) Media reach was a fraction of what it is today, and the political movie genre was marginal low-budget fare. So there was not much of a mass middle-class market to milk. And no mass market means no mass product.

But while there is such a market now and it is large enough for Moore to become its Rush Limbaugh, one powerful catalyst and ingredient of his success is also known as George W. Bush, the quintessential right-wing villain, the kind of inherently evil conservative puppet of corporate interests Moore would have to invent if he didn't exist. Granted, he does invent most of it but you know what I mean : it sells a lot better if you have a single, real, well-known target to blame, defame and insult, rather than a wee voodoo doll and a box of red-hot needles.

So what if Moore got what he says he wants ? What if Bush lost the election in November ? Who is going to be responsible for all the world's problem from weather patterns to the price of gas ? What is left of the Moore product without George W. Bush and the tangled webs of wickedness and corruption that all lead to his incredibly stupid yet amazingly shrewd designs ? Since Moore's comfy income relies in no small part on painting this particular President as being both dumber than a bag of bricks and the most evil genius ever, irrelevant and at the center of everything, master and servant of capitalist greed, "fictitious" and too real for comfort...what happens to his successful business model when Bush goes ?

Ouch

Yes, this is a real red-light law enforcement camera feed. The guy crossing the street on the left actually survived...

I find the lightning speed of the incident to be the most chilling part. Mr Tegtmeyer breaks into a run probably half a second too late and that's all it takes. I probably will be paying a lot more attention when I cross the street in the near future...

(Via Bob Congdon)

Blogs Aim: Hit Head

Today, our local newspaper picked up a lengthy LA Times editorial, "Americans Seek Enertaining News". David Shaw meanders through familiar territory—at least to those of his generation and profession. People, he says, who want unbiased reporting (a growing minority he believes) choose Fox because it is comfortable, it isn’t challenging. He quotes Todd Gitlin, “Most people want no-problem news, goes-down-easy news, Yahoo! Headlines, news that evokes feelings, even if those feelings are feelings of fear.” (Well I remember the SDS's ability to aim at the head in our heady youths.) Today, I find the raw emotions no less the object of, say, 60 Minutes than O’Reilley. While repeatdly equating Fox with the Comedy Channel appears cute to the believers, I doubt it converts many pagans.

Continue reading "Blogs Aim: Hit Head "

Attention, All Planets of the Solar Federation

This is post #2112. We have assumed control.

In Case of Terrorist Attack: Electoral College II

I just got an email from Steve Sandvoss and just finished chatting with him on Illinois electoral law. It turns out that there is some provision for electors being unable to do their duty. It's all laid out at 10 ILCS 5/21-5. Here's the text:

Sec. 21-5.
In case any person duly elected an elector of President and Vice?President of the United States shall fail to attend at the Capitol on the day on which his vote is required to be given, it shall be the duty of the elector or electors of President and Vice-President, attending at the time and place, to appoint a person or persons to fill such vacancy; provided, that should the person or persons chosen, as in this Article provided, in the foregoing sections, arrive at the place aforesaid before the votes for President and Vice-President are actually given, the person or persons appointed to fill such vacancy shall not act as elector of President and Vice-President.
(Source: Laws 1943, vol. 2, p. 1.)

A quick read will show that this is perfectly adequate for a heart attack, no shows, or mistaken appointments (where the elector isn't actually qualified to serve). This is important because ~0.5% of electors had to be replaced in 2000 and no doubt a similar percentage are replaced every election.

What this doesn't help at all for is cases where the whole college is taken out prior to voting and transmitting their votes. There's a war on and the state legislature has the duty to tighten up the laws so an attack would not imperil Illinois' votes for the presidency due to enemy attack.

Again, this isn't rocket science here. A fair procedure to throw it back to the legislature in case of incapacity of the entire college should neither take much of the legislature's time, nor would either party be likely to object to a quick electoral procedure reform to fix the hole.

Will the legislature act? Who knows?

Rock, Paper, Saddam

The new hot game of the summer. Speaking of which, one can only wonder how badly Saddam will lose at this trial. Hiring the infamous Jacques Verges has been a sure way to the slammer - or worse - for all those he has represented. Granted, he actually represents and promotes himself on their back more than anything else. Should you ever think of hiring him, you should know that you need to be very rich, world-famous and have a ton of innocent blood on your hands. You know, the kind of person worth defending. Literally speaking. Sorry O.J., you don't cut it....Well, OK, you know what I mean.

Chicago Boyz and Girls (Girlz?) at Play

On a recent Friday afternoon I visited Lex at his office, where we discussed the usual politics and developed a robust libertarian/conservative dinner strategy. Mrs. Lex soon joined us and we set off for the excellent Reza's, where we met up with some blogging colleagues and a few interlopers. We ate, drank, discussed interesting things and had a good time. Here are some photos.

Thursday Night: Reconnaissance

Continue reading "Chicago Boyz and Girls (Girlz?) at Play"

In Case of Terrorist Attack: Electoral College

For anybody politically active, there is a little nagging worry about what would happen in case Al Queda and Co. strike in order to disrupt the election of our next president. Outside The Beltway has a nice round up of issues facing November but what about the December elections? Elections for president and vice president are indirect after all and it's the Electoral College that has the final say.

In Illinois, that's 21 people trudging down to Springfield one fine December day to meet, conduct their vote, make sure the paperwork is in order, and go home. But what if on arrival, their meeting place were bombed and all 21 were killed? What then? Even if it weren't some nefarious plot but just blocked arteries or the proverbial bus coming out from nowhere, surely there is some law setting the procedure for handling a tragedy and ensuring that come January 21 votes from Illinois are counted for President.

The federal law is clear. Electoral College member selection is a matter for each individual state legislature. So what procedure has Illinois set up? I ended up talking to Steve Sandvoss, a very helpful fellow down at the state board of elections. After consultation with a colleague, the answer came back that the legislature hasn't acted at all in the area but that presumably the party that nominated them would meet, appoint any needed replacements, and the votes would be cast the way that the people wanted them to be cast.

This isn't a bad guess at where the political process would eventually force the Governor (who has to certify the electors to the federal archivist) and the legislature (who, according to federal law, has the right to select them however they please) to end up at but flying by the seat of your pants is not something you want to do. Clear rules are very much preferable as we all found out on 9/11. There's plenty of time to think this sort of thing through and push through a bipartisan procedure that will fill this void in state law. Let's hope it doesn't take a tragedy to fill this legislative void.

One temptation, of course, would be for the legislature dominated by one party to replace the electors of another party to a slate that would vote differently. Another temptation would be for the Governor to not certify the new name(s). A third temptation would be for a Senator and a Representative to try to get the new elector(s) votes nullified on the grounds that they were improperly selected. In a very close election, who knows who will yield to temptation when the law itself is mute?

More Artificial Intelligence

More on the Intelligence Committee report. Having read large parts of it and its entire conclusions, I am finding the reading of morning papers to be a somewhat odd experience. Because the report a) largely dismisses claims of undue political pressure and b) lays out a convincing case that none was needed to deliver a lousy product, while c) most in the media claim political pressure to be the main, if not the only culprit.

Predictable, given the electoral context. And a much more interesting storyline than digging into the workings of the nation's intel agencies. What is more disturbing - to me, at least - is the overall inability - some will call it unwillingness - to perform a modicum of fact-checking, as if government reports were guaranteed to be bug-free.

In today's Washington Post, it is claimed that :

Also, the words "we have little specific information on Iraq's CW [chemical weapons] stockpile" were removed from the unclassified paper.

The "unclassified paper" referred to being the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction. And sure enough, on page 2 (emphasis mine):

Although we have little specific information on Iraq's CW stockpile, Saddam probably has stocked at least 100 metric tons (MT) and possibly as much as 500 MT of CW agents - much of it added in the last year.

The Post also claims that language was altered to make statements sound more factual than they were :

The report also notes that the White Paper dropped such qualifiers as "we judge" and "we assess," making best estimates appear as fact.

Thus the classified report's language, "We assess that Baghdad has begun renewed production of mustard, sarin, cyclosarin, and VX . . . " became "Baghdad has begun renewed production . . . "

And sure enough, on the same page 2 of the NIE, we read :

We assess that Baghdad has begun renewed production of mustard, sarin, GF (cyclosarin), and VX; its capability is probably more limited now that it was at the time of the Gulf War, although VX production and agent storage life probably have been improved.

"We assess", "probably", "although"....The uncertainty of this short paragraph is rather clear. The pattern continues with the now infamous aluminum tubes. According to the Post :

The classified version for lawmakers noted that the Department of Energy, the government's best experts on nuclear technology, "assesses that the tubes probably are not part of the [nuclear] program."

The unclassified White Paper said only: "Most intelligence specialists assess this to be the intended use, but some believe that these tubes are probably intended for conventional weapons programs."

But the NIE says (emphasis mine):

Most agencies believe that Saddam's personal interest in and Iraq's aggressive attempts to obtain high-strength aluminum tubes for centrifuge rotors - as well as Iraq's attempts to acquire magnets, high-speed balancing machines, and machine tools - provide compelling evidence that Saddam is reconstituting a uranium enrichment effort for Baghdad's nuclear weapons program. (DOE agrees that reconstitution of the nuclear program is underway but assesses that the tubes probably are not part of the program).

We already noted an obvious discrepancy yesterday between the Intelligence Committee's conclusions and the NIE.

The plot thickens....

More :Winds Of Change covers the report.

Street Painting

Very cool. Master street painter Kurt Wenner. Images are clickable.

Nuclear Power Resurgent

I've long been a fan of nuclear power. I know that's unfashionable to say. It implies that I either don't care about the future of the human race or don't care about the environment. But that's wrong. I do care and I'm open to debate on the issues, especially if you can show me the science. I've been an environmentalist almost my entire life. I've supported various environmental groups over the years and am currently a member of the Chesapeake Bay Foundation. I support the National Park system, nature refuges, clean water regulation, clean air regulation, all those things. I don't think it's necessary or justified to trash the earth - our home - in order to build a functioning society. Just the opposite. I believe a clean environment and a healthy ecosystem means a higher quality of life for everyone.

Continue reading "Nuclear Power Resurgent"

Word Of The Day

Main Entry: pse·phol·o·gy
Function: noun
Etymology: Greek psEphos pebble, ballot, vote; from the use of pebbles by the ancient Greeks in voting
: the scientific study of elections
- pse·pho·log·i·cal/ adjective
- pse·phol·o·gist / noun

Artificial Intelligence

Although I did take time to read the thirty-page conclusion of the Senate's Select Committee on Intelligence report yesterday, I was planning on sitting out the all-too-predictable "debate". But after reading the New York Times over heavenly eggs benedict at the local mom-and-pop diner, a few things need to be set straight. Example, from the Times:

The lingering question, not directly addressed by the committee, is whether the White House and Pentagon generated a climate that induced the agency and its director, George J. Tenet, to emphasize the Iraqi threat even though the intelligence data was ambiguous.

And from the actual report ? (Bolding matches that of the original report.)

(U) Conclusion 11. Several of the allegations of pressure on Intelligence Community (IC) analysts involved repeated questioning. The Committee believes that IC analysts should expect difficult and repeated questions regarding threat information. Just as the post 9/11 environment lowered the Intelligence Community's reporting threshold, it has also affected the intensity with which policymakers will review and question threat information.

(U) A number of the individuals interviewed by the Committee in conducting its review stated that Administration officials questioned analysts repeatedly on the potential for cooperation between Saddam Hussein's regime and al-Qaida. Though these allegations appeared repeatedly in the press and in other public reporting on the lead-up to the war, no analyst questioned by the Committee stated that the questions were unreasonable, or that they were encouraged by the questioning to alter their conclusions regarding Iraq's links to al-Qaida.

And in case you're a New York Times reporter and don't get the point, there is this:

(U) In some cases, those interviewed stated that the questions had forced them to go back and review the intelligence reporting, and that during this exercise they came across information they had overlooked in initial readings. The Committe found that this process - the policymakers probing questions - actually improved the Central Intelligence Agency's (CIA) products.

Any doubts left about that "lingering question" ?

(U)Conclusion 83. The Committee did not find any evidence that Administration officials attempted to coerce, influence or pressure analysts to change their judgments related to Iraq's weapons of mass destruction capabilities.

(U) Conclusion 84. The Committee found no evidence that the Vice President's visits to the Central Intelligence Agency were attempts to pressure analysts, were perceived as intended to pressure analysts by those who participated in the briefings on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction programs, or did pressure analysts to change their assessments.

[...]

(U) Conclusion 102. The Committee found that none of the analysts or other people interviewed by the Committee said that they were pressured to change their conclusions related to Iraq's links to terrorism. After 9/11, however, analysts were under tremendous pressure to make correct assessments, to avoid missing a credible threat, and to avoid an intelligence failure on the scale of 9/11.

A few paragraphs later, the New York Times starts contradicting itself, but only as a segue into the always conveniently anonymously sourced party line :

The report concluded that these visits were not perceived by analysts as efforts to pressure them, but other intelligence officials said such high-level visits often forced analysts to simplify complicated subjects and gloss over internal doubts.

And predictably, if the report does not say what we want to hear, something must be wrong with it :

Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat from California, said on Friday that the administration could be faulted for the C.I.A.'s mistakes on Iraq. "The committee's report does not acknowledge that the intelligence estimate were shaped by the administration," she said.

In other words, the very kind of biased "groupthink" denounced by the report itself. But make no mistake; the report does reveal a lot of issues within the country's intelligence establishment.

Continue reading "Artificial Intelligence"

Milton Friedman

Lex pointed out this excellent interview with Milton Friedman. It's a few months old but still well worth reading -- as are all interviews with Milton Friedman.

Joke of the Day

The World Court, an organization with neither legitimacy nor accountability, condemned Israel, a democratic country, for building a security fence that is saving lives every day. The Court's head judge wrote:

. . . "The wall ... cannot be justified by military exigencies or by the requirements of national security or public order.

"The construction ... constitutes breaches by Israel of its obligations under applicable international humanitarian law. Israel is under an obligation ... to dismantle forthwith the structure," he said.

Where does this head judge, who is so concerned about humanitarian and legal obligations, come from? From China, a country ruled by an unelected clique of mass-murderers that lacks legitimacy and accountability and treats its citizens like ants in an ant farm.

It should long ago have become obvious, to anyone who has a clue, that the principal role of "international organizations" like the World Court is as weapons against the U.S. and Israel and other democracies that assert their right to defend themselves. These are the same organizations to which John Kerry and his political allies on the Left would grant increased resources and legitimacy. Bush, whatever his flaws, at least understands who our enemies are. The Democrats won't be ready for national leadership again until they wise up in this area, and stop pandering to the idiots for whom it is always 1968.

C-SPAN 1&2 (times e.t.)

This Sunday on Booknotes (8:00 p.m. and again 11:00) Lamb interviews Robert Kurson, author of Shadow Divers: The True Adventure of Two Americans Who Risked Everything to Sole One of the Last Mysteries of World War II . Kurson describes the adventures of two divers in the 1990’s delving into the mysteries of a German U-boat from WWII. The narrative combines history, adventure, and the toll such an obsession takes on the men and their families.

CSPAN2’s Book TV “Featured Program” will be a panel exploring the biography of Alexander Hamilton on the anniversary of his duel with Aaron Burr. The panel includes Thomas Fleming, Ron Chernow, Carol Berkin, and Joanne Freeman; it airs Sunday July 11 at 2:00 in the afternoon and early Monday morning (12:45 and 5:30).

Continue reading "C-SPAN 1&2 (times e.t.)"

Trivialities and Transcendence

So, OK, I got a dynalanche, having written Virginia about something I actually have some experience in. Well, then she pointed to this review, where she writes: "Brooks is impressed by our energy and achievements, but worried about our souls: 'The quest may be epic, but the goal is trivial.'"

Those of you who have read GENERATIONS will recall that Strauss and Howe contrast the styles of the Silent Generation (born between the mid-'20s and early '40s) with that of the Boomers (birth years early '40s to early '60s) as those of an "adaptive" vs an "idealist" generation. Adaptives are process-oriented and promote incrementalist approaches; Idealists are principle-oriented and demand breakthroughs.

(For those unfamiliar with these concepts, a primer is here).

I believe that the US is experiencing, just as Strauss and Howe predicted, a shift in problem-resolution style from small bites to big gulps, as it were. The trick is to realize that the pursuit of enough trivial goals can add up to an epic quest -- or, rather, that even an epic quest can be broken down into a large number of relatively trivial goals (I just warmed the hearts of any project managers who might be reading this).

To cite a dark and dramatic example, a quote from one of my favorite movies: "One man desperate for fuel is pathetic. Five million men desperate for fuel can destroy a city." Or, in a much more positive (and civic) vein, the slogan of this organization, which holds the lives of hundreds of thousands of people, my household included, in its metaphorical hands: "One boring improvement after another." Improved spelling on their webpage may yet be among them. ;)

See also the cogent point, quoted by Virginia, of Matt of Overtaken by Events: "No longer will the supervisor have to walk to the register, find out the problem and make another trip to resolve it. This may only save a few minutes at a time, but when you're talking about 100 million customers per week the productivity gains could be enormous."

In sufficient quantity, the trivial becomes transcendent. Epic struggles: the containment of Islamist (and perhaps environmentalist) terror; the creation of strong nanotechnology, and institutions capable of managing its risks; the acquisition of routine transportation to space; even ultimate victory in Strauss and Howe's "crisis of 2020" -- will be the result of millions of Americans performing seemingly humble tasks, pursuing apparently small goals, making "boring" improvements -- at an ever-accelerating pace.

UPDATE: Virginia kindly acknowledges this post, berating herself a bit; but I think we have made the same point in different words -- after all, she did write that "America's economic greatness — and, ultimately, its cultural and military power and its historical legacy — comes from the pursuit of excellence in tasks that seem 'a certain formula for brain death'"; that "'[t]rivial' goals in fact make human life better over time"; and that "[e]very great achievement requires mundane, incremental progress."

The Truth Is Out There

Much has been made of the secrecy around the John Edwards announcement. But late on Monday night, as the Presidential candidate informed the plane maintenance team so they could change the decals, the info leaked.

Of course, the New York Post got it wrong and this is making this particular edition especially valuable.

(Via Slate's Today's Papers)

Yet More on the Turnover

In the last hundred and fifty years, we have taken to heart Thoreau’s perspective: “In most books, the I, or first person, is omitted; in this it will be retained; that, in respect to egotism, is the main difference. We commonly do not remember that it is, after all, always the first person that is speaking.” And we learned much from Emerson and Thoreau. But, now our culture often seems limited to the subjective; ask Sokal, now even physics is “personal.” I wonder what Thoreau, who treasured the “fact” that cuts like a cimeter, would think of, say, the Washington Post.

The Washington Post reviews a novel excoriating the president and discussing assassination. Interesting? Perhaps. The novel’s spokesman contends it "is a portrait of an anguished protagonist pushed to extremes. Baker is using the framework and story structure as a narrative device to express the discontent many in America are feeling right now." Anguish. Discontent. These “affections” are what’s important. The specific, the personal, the heart – how we feel. The deaths over the last twenty years, the muttered fatwas from bin Laden and threats from Saddam, these are facts. But the real “fact” – the important one – is how the author feels. Exactly how a superpower (indeed, a hyperpower) responds to provocations, uses its force in chaotic states – these are not the reason someone would write such a book. It is to express “the discontent” he feels - people like him feel.

I’ve begun (yes, quite belatedly) to read The Federalist Papers. I’m struck how in the introductory sections, Publius returns again and again to a definition of “human nature.” But these writers work with their heads, generalize, pursue what they consider truth. To reach that truth, the writers synthesize history, acknowledge experience, note traditions. Through history, they argue, this “works” and this does not. These writers understood that human emotions are powerful but their goal was to understand them, to become (and help us become) more conscious.

They say: We realize some interpret these events differently; here are their arguments; here are ours. We believe ours are better because we have found precedent, we have noticed truths, we have become more conscious of who we are.

Of course, these arguments came, as would any from wise adults, from soul-searching by these writers – this is what has been my experience, I feel, others feel. But the reasoning is always from the head, the acknowledgement of counter points is always gentlemanly, the respect for history, for facts is always real. They were writing to convince but it was with logic and not emotions they pled. The long view requires addresses to the head. They took the founding of our country very very seriously.

Continue reading "Yet More on the Turnover"