OPEN THREAD by Meteor Blades Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 22:04:51 GMT Time for your topics. And a poll. Open Threads :: Link & Discuss (121 comments)

LA Times Poll Out - Kerry Up 48 - 46 by DemFromCT Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 22:04:33 GMT Here's the story (June numbers in parentheses). Kerry 48 (51) - Bush 46 (44). But again, look at the fundamentals: But several other measures in the survey show narrow - and in some instances broad - majorities unhappy with Bush's direction, a threatening trend for an incumbent. Fully 54% of those polled said the nation is moving in the wrong direction. Nearly half said Bush's economic policies have made the country "worse off" - almost twice as many as say his agenda has improved conditions. A slim majority said that the war in Iraq was not justified. And perhaps most ominously for Bush, nearly three-fifths said the country should not "continue in the direction he set out," and instead "needs to move in a new direction." At the moment, the race is static with a slight Kerry lead, and taking Gallup, NBC/WSJ and LA Times together, the country is poised to look at kerry and start getting serious about considering him. They already don't like the guy in office, but they'll have to decide whether Kerry will replace him. The two next big events (forseen):  1. the convention (an expected small bounce of 5-8 points)  2. the debates The unforseen events? If I knew that, they wouldn't be unforseen. In any case, if Kerry develops that small lead mentioned above, Bush won't catch him. General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (43 comments)

CNN/USATODAY/GALLUP: BUSH 47 KERRY 49 by Rimjob Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 21:20:46 GMT [editor's note, by DemFromCT] Promoted from the diaries. (Numbers in parentheses July 8-11) Just saw it on INSIDE POLITICS... GENERAL ELECTION-LIKELY VOTERS BUSH 47 (46) KERRY 49 (50) ...ADD NADER BUSH 46 (45) KERRY 47 (50) NADER 4 [UPDATE] USA TODAY GENERAL ELECTION-REGISTERED VOTERS BUSH 45 KERRY 49 ...ADD NADER BUSH 43 KERRY 47 NADER 5 Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,005 National Adults, aged 18+, conducted July 19-21, 2004. For results based on the total sample of National Adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points. Results based on likely voters are based on the subsample of 709 survey respondents deemed most likely to vote in the November 2004 General Election, according to a series of questions measuring current voting intentions and past voting behavior. For results based on the total sample of likely voters, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. The likely voter model assumes a turnout of 50% of national adults, consistent with recent presidential elections. The likely voter sample is weighted down to match this assumption. For results based on the sample of 878 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±4 percentage points. [UPDATE 2] Just saw this on CNBC's CAPITAL REPORT, no link yet...A note about this poll, Kerry has never led in the NBC/WSJ POLL, numbers in () are from 6/25-28.... NBC/WSJ POLL GENERAL ELECTION-HEAD 2 HEAD BUSH-CHENEY 47(47) KERRY-EDWARDS 44(47) GENERAL ELECTION BUSH-CHENEY 44(45) KERRY-EDWARDS 40(44) NADER-CAMEJO 2(4) BUSH JOB APPROVAL APPROVE 48(45) DISAPPROVE 46(49) Diaries :: Rimjob's diary :: Link & Discuss (152 comments)

Rasmussen Poll Jumps for Kerry by DemFromCT Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 13:53:37 GMT As our diarists have noted, the Rasmussen tracking poll today jumped a bit (including Kerry by 5 with leaners), with Scott Rasmussen predicting It is likely that Kerry's position in the polls will improve over the next week or so in response to the Democratic National Convention. except Kerry forgot to wait until the convention. Two current theories for this include the failure of Bergergate to gain any traction (I like that one), and the fall of the stock market (never affected Kerry before). To this I would add the gas price rise over the last week, which (I believe) Jerome Armstrong first suggested. I note all of this because it's nice to see what the baseline is before the convention. More numbers inside. General 2004 :: There's more... (192 comments, 594 words in story)

In A Parallel Universe . . . by Trapper John Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 12:00:10 GMT A Hannity & Colmes set in a universe very much like our own . . . yet very different. COLMES: Senator Frist, I want to ask you about this ad that's been running in the Midwest, and get your take on it. Roll tape. (Open: a breakfast nook in The Heartland (TM). Harry and Louise, two Home Sweet Homes enjoying toast and coffee over their local newspaper.) LOUISE: Harry, did you see here that George Bush stopped Congress from passing an extension of those middle class tax cuts that helped us so much? HARRY: You mean those tax cuts that John Kerry wants to protect, like "the increases in the child tax credit, the reduced marriage penalty and the new tax bracket that helps people save $350 on their first level of income?" LOUISE: Yes! Those are the tax cuts that helped us pay Mike and Julie's college tuition and pay for my Mom's medication! HARRY: Gosh! For a guy who talks a lot about helping middle-class Americans and seniors, George Bush doesn't seem to really care about us. He's looking to raise our taxes! LOUISE: Well, we're looking for a candidate who'll save our tax cuts, not just talk about them. ANNOUNCER: This fall, make sure you vote for a President who wants to save the middle class tax cuts. Call George Bush and ask him why he wants to raise taxes on hard-working, middle class Americans. COLMES: Senator Frist, why does the Pres -- er, George Bush -- want to raise taxes on everyday Americans? Even the leaders of the Congressional GOP wanted to extend these critical middle class tax cuts! FRIST: Well, Alan, as you know, the only reason that Mr. Bush opposed that tax cutting plan was because he prefers another bill -- the Frelinghuysen-Herseth bill, to be precise -- to make the tax cuts perm-- COLMES: Come on, Senator. You can stop that inside the beltway talk here on Colmes & Hannity. The fact of the matter is that Bush stopped the best chance to ensure tax relief for real Americans. "Frelinghuysen-Herseth," indeed! That's just code for "wants to raise your taxes." HANNITY: But Alan, he just wants-- COLMES: To raise taxes on the middle class. That's right, Sean. That's what you guys do -- raise taxes on the middle class so you can give our money to your rich, elitist corporate welfare queens on Fisher Island. We know how it works. Or maybe its that he wants to schedule a vote in September. Aren't you sick of playing politics with the American people's hard-earned money? HANNITY: Yeah, but-- COLMES: Next up on Colmes & Hannity: the filth of Toby Keith. We're going ask a Ford Motors spokesman why his company disgraces itself by employing a trashmonger to hawk its cars! General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (55 comments)

9/11 Report Open Thread by DemFromCT Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 11:09:51 GMT It's out in another half hour... I'm/We're working and we may not get to it as fast as you do... comment here, and see what your compatriots think. Tell us about how it's being handled by the media. Give us a few good links... including on the right, if you come across them. More to come... Open Threads :: Link & Discuss (120 comments)

Kerry and Iran-Contra by bramish Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 10:15:19 GMT Promoted from the diaries -- Trapper. Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal reviews John Kerry's history of uncovering Iran-Contra and other big government messes. Though I consider myself relatively well informed, this is stuff I've never heard. Of course the Republicans have every incentive not to publicize Kerry's investigations and the SCLM just plays along with the Repubs. No surprise that Blumenthal's column is published in the Guardian, not any U.S. paper. Full link. Choice excerpt: "From Vietnam onwards, Kerry has probed the inner recesses of government, pursuing a persistent and cumulative investigation into the underside of national security and terrorism. If the Democrats had held the Senate for a sustained period of time, his proposal to regulate the netherworld of money laundering, which was not enacted, might even have helped stymie al-Qaida." If only...sigh. Diaries :: bramish's diary :: Link & Discuss (38 comments)

A Word About Boston by DemFromCT Thu Jul 22nd, 2004 at 08:14:43 GMT [editor's note, by DemFromCT] Today is a travel/recover from jet lag day for Kos. Expect to see guest-posts as well as Kos posts for the rest of the week as Markos settles in. Boston is my old stomping grounds, too. Literally, as I was stomped by the Tactical Patrol Force in the early 70's (mounted police) while protesting a Spiro Agnew fundraiser at the old Boston Armory. I've lived in the Back Bay, Cambridge and Jamaica Plain, all just before gentrification set in (was I the stimulus?). Boston is a marvelous little city of just over half a million, and 30 years ago, at least, consisted of the natives and the transients (all those college and grad students of which I was once one)... the median age is 31. The natives don't have as heavy a NE accent as those who grew up outside of Boston, but there's a definite regional flavor to the dialect, and a wonderful regional bias toward all things New England. The seafood is terrific, the Italian food out of this world, and the traffic jams world-class, even without a convention (it's not unusual to be passed on your bicycle by a motorist... on your right). Boston has a dark side, as well. Judge Gerrity had to remake the school system because of segregation (Bill Russell, the Boston Celtics star famously called Boston the most racist city in the country), and I'm not qualified to discuss how much things have changed over the last 30 years. Housing prices have become astronomical... people live as far away as RI and commute. At times it's been the stolen bike/stolen car capitol of the country. Boston is a city that celebrates its past, just as New Yorkers remake rather than preserve theirs. And that's the unspoken theme this weekend. Bostonians take a great deal of civic pride in the Hub (of the Universe), but intensely dislike competing with New Yorkers (and that's what's happening with these dueling conventions... the comparisons are inevitable). Like the Yankees coming to town, there's angst behind the anticipation. Nonetheless, warts and all, it's a fascinating and exhilarating place to live. To my way of thinking, it's the closest eastern city to SF in ambiance, though certainly not in weather. I look forward to hearing from everyone in the city and at the convention over the next week. Travel safely, and be sure to sample the seafood. There's going to be some major politics going on. Oh... and that 9/11 report is out today. General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (142 comments)

Off to Boston by kos Wed Jul 21st, 2004 at 22:56:49 GMT Trying to get into town before they shut it down and turn it into FORTRESS BOSTONIA. Last time I was in town was the day after my law school graduation in 1999. Should be fun to see if my old stomping grounds in Allston are still around. Open Threads :: Link & Discuss (109 comments)

Poll Shows Kerry Leading Among Registered Latinos by DemFromCT Wed Jul 21st, 2004 at 21:44:46 GMT [editor's note, by DemFromCT]: This story is posted in hopes of giving Kos some packing time... Most Reject President's Handling of Economy, War in Iraq At a time when Bush and Kerry are running roughly even among all registered voters, Kerry enjoys a 2-1 advantage over Bush among registered Latino voters. Hispanics give Bush lower approval ratings than does the overall population, and the poll shows that the bulk of the Latino community continues to identify with the Democratic Party. The findings suggest that, at this point in the campaign, Bush is falling short of his goal of notably improving on the 35 percent share of the Hispanic vote he received four years ago, although his advisers said they believe he is still on track to do so. Kerry advisers, in contrast, said they are determined to keep Bush from winning as much of the Hispanic vote as he did in 2000. The particulars are here. Needless to say, this is a critical group and whether it's Florida or the country, recent signs suggest Kerry is holding on to this constituency. And why not? Latinos may be a diverse group, but no one likes what's happening in Iraq and doubts remain about this economy. Once again, Bush shows himself to be a uniter, though not in the way he intended. (Compared to the WaPo national average) Latinos:  * approve/disapprove of the way Bush is handling Iraq  29/62 (44/55).  * approve/disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy  32/60 (46/52).  * horserace: Kerry/Edwards 60 (46)                   Bush/Cheney   30 (46) Around 20% of voters are willing to change their mind about K/E or B/C. In conjunction with the Pew Poll, the message remains that the fundamentals (and the momentum) are for now in Kerry's favor. General 2004 :: Link & Discuss (46 comments)

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