President Bush, in case you're listening, here's some friendly campaign advice to get the ethnic vote: Dump Cheney; get Cosby.

In case you haven't noticed, Bill Cosby's recent political statements aren't much different from Bush's. In comments made over the last month before the Rainbow Push Coalition and at a gathering of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP) in May, Cosby left no portion of the community -- men, women, teenagers, families -- untouched. Cosby has spewed a relentless stream of criticism.

But he's also tried to solve some of the problems he's identified. Last week, after saying black children are "going nowhere" because they don't know how to read and write, he agreed to pay the college education of two high school graduates.

Now, that's affirmative action. And there's been no letup. Here's Cosby in a news release last week: "If 55 percent of the people in your community had smallpox, you would call it an epidemic. Yet, in the African American community, we have staggering percentages of dropouts, teen pregnancies and incarceration of young males, and we fail to acknowledge the epidemic. This epidemic can only be cured by a focus on parenting and education."

It's a personal-responsibility message. Just like Bush's. Here's the difference: Cosby will speak at the NAACP's 95th annual convention in Philadelphia this week. George Bush won't.

Bush has refused an invitation to speak -- and he thinks he can get away with it.

Hey, isn't Bush president of the whole country -- blacks, Latinos, Asians, too -- and not just Southern white conservatives?

I thought so.

Here's how big a slight it is: Barring a last-second flyby, Bush becomes the first sitting president since Herbert Hoover not to speak before the NAACP, the nation's oldest civil rights organization.

And we know what civil rights were like under Hoover.

But I guess Bush is happy with Condi and Colin and the 9 percent of blacks who voted for him in 2000. Or maybe he's willing to see just how much deeper into single digits his support can go in 2004.

Bush has used the excuse that NAACP leadership has called him harsh names.

Poor Mr. President.

Is it any harsher than Dick Cheney's coarse and vulgar display of everyday Capitol Hill language? Any worse than the names the right wing called U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton when she was first lady?

Being offended by name calling just seems so petty when compared to the opportunity Bush is missing to make a real connection with black voters at an NAACP convention. I'd love to hear him try to win over black Floridians and others still angry over the 2000 vote-counting fiasco in that state. They are still begrudgingly forced to call him "Mr. President."

Considering America's changing demographics, you'd think presidential politics would play a little more ethnic this campaign, with politicians jumping at the chance for some honest discussion on the issues of importance to all ethnic communities -- like equal opportunity in education and employment.

But Bush's behavior shows there's a real reluctance to engage the new majority.

The result: Once again, ethnic voters and the issues important to them on a national level will be given short shrift.

Even though local and state politics have become increasingly diverse in states such as California, where minorities have become a majority, the country's population as a whole is still 20 years from that sort of equilibrium.

The lag in national politics means that this year, we can expect what we've always seen in presidential campaigns: Republicans will continue to pay lip service to the idea of reaching out to all minorities, and they will ultimately fail.

At the same time, Democrats will once again be given the gift of a united black and Latino vote -- and they will struggle mightily to not take it for granted.

Meanwhile, both parties will go after the ethnic voter they really want -- the Southern white conservative.

In all likelihood, that's probably what's driving Bush's NAACP snub.

How can Bush court his Bubba base and NAACP Chair Julian Bond at the same time?

It's not easy, but, as the president, he should at least try.

That's what leaders are supposed to do.

On the Democratic side, John Kerry is trying his best to have it both ways. Kerry will speak at the NAACP convention on the last day.

Unfortunately, he hasn't exactly embraced the ethnic voter, either. He seems to have that malaise toward them that tends to afflict many Democratic political consultants who take the minority vote for granted. They look at the racial data showing a growing electorate, then ask the smug question, "Where else are they going to go?"

And then the consultants do what they need to do to win: Go after the white Southerners.

Enter John Edwards.

Here's a real strange scenario: If the so-called Southern Strategy makes the race tighter, as some new polls suggest, and if the Democrats take the ethnic vote for granted, causing an erosion in Democratic support, it could mean a much closer election all around.

And, in that situation, Bush could benefit from mild straying among minorities presumed to be locked in to the Democratic fold.

But Bush apparently sees the NAACP as a monolith with organization President Kweisi Mfume at the helm. And he seems to see more value in demonizing the NAACP as a "special interest" or an enemy of the state.

That strategy may play to some GOP loyalists, but it is a big mistake.

When Bush won't even talk to a convention of the nation's largest civil rights organization, it's indicative of how far he's willing to alienate minorities and corroborate impressions that they're on a second tier in America -- where only some people count.

Maybe it's better if Bush doesn't show up. If he did go, and he failed to talk frankly and candidly, he'd probably be overshadowed. And not by John Kerry.

On Thursday, Cosby is set to perform at the convention. Billed as entertainment, Cosby has, however, been more focused on politics. Of late, there's been no one more frankly critical of the black community in America.

For some reason, the personal-responsibility message doesn't alienate people as much when it comes from Cosby. But when Bush talks about it, it's harsh, because he's really preaching an end to government responsibility. It comes across more as "the government doesn't care."

In Cincinnati last month, Bush tried to push his Healthy Families idea. And, no, it's not about health care; it's about teaching people to be responsible parents. The concept is not a bad one. It's just that Bush thinks the idea alone will do the job.

What about raising the federal minimum wage? How about better educational and economic opportunities? Kerry's raised all those issues, while Bush has trumpeted his do-it-yourself domestic ideas.

Maybe allied with Cosby, Bush can get his message across to blacks and other minorities.

But he certainly won't be able to do so if he rejects the NAACP, gives up and just says no to blacks, the core of the ethnic vote.

By November, you never know; Bush may need them more than he thinks. He may even manage to capitalize. If he doesn't blow it this week.