July 29, 2004

Kerry Speech Analysis

This is one I don’t have to chew on much. This speech definitely played to Kerry’s base. Democrats will likely love it. I’m sure they’ll gush about how great Kerry was.

But Kerry already has his base, as does Bush. He needed to reach beyond that. In that regard, Kerry’s speech was neither a great failure nor a great success. Kerry will get a bounce, but I don’t think it will be a great one.

The reason is fairly simple. What was the theme of this speech? Where was the vision, other than “America can do better”. That’s a very generic theme. A good political speech is a speech that finds the right balance between style and substance, platitude and policy. For instance, in 1996 Clinton’s speech had exactly the right balance. His talk of “building a bridge to the 21st Century” was one that lasted throughout the campaign. Kerry’s speech was heavy on the platitudes and light on the policy. What policies it had were abstracted from any theme that would tie everything together in a coherent way.

I think this speech provides the Bush campaign with many opportunities to not only draw a distinction between himself and John Kerry. In fact, I think Bush can beat Kerry based on one word. I think Bush can absolutely tear Kerry to shreds and do it in a way that doesn’t come off as an attack.

In any event, Kerry had a solid hit, but it wasn’t a home run. This was a great speech for the base, but I don’t see it hitting the critical swing votes. Kerry did have a slight problem with the base, and this speech probably helped him somewhat. If that was the intention of this speech was, it did the job. However, I doubt this was enough to swing the election towards Kerry very far or for very long.

UPDATE: Don’t forget to check out Stephen Green’s liveblogging of the speech for more instant insight. You have to love the blogosphere – instant analysis from several sources right at your fingertips…

Captain Ed also lived blogged Kerry’s speech.

So did Powerline. Their reaction:

I actually like Kerry in a weird way, although—or because—I don’t think he believes a word he says. He’s a goofball and always has been; you can see it in the pictures from his youth and from Vietnam. I can’t take him seriously as a lefty; he’s too interested in money, comfort, fame and pretty girls to qualify. (In that respect, he really is like his idol, John Kennedy, the last of the conservative national Democrats.) By the same token, of course, I don’t take him seriously as commander in chief.

Bottom line, tonight changed nothing.

I think that sums it up. This speech didn’t change anything. Whatever lead this convention gives Kerry won’t last long.

UPDATE: Heh. I’m the Man... Coming from someone who’s more deserving of the title, that’s quite something. Me, I’d be more inclined to agree with being an obsessive nerd, but I’ll take what praise I can…

UPDATE: Predictably, TalkLeft is orgasmic over this one. Now I have a new illustration of what the term “sycophant” means…

UPDATE: I agree – this was the best comment so far:

I dunno… A picture of Kerry/Edwards with the slogan “We can do better” over it is one highly ambiguous message.

Indeed.

Posted By Jay Reding At 10:04 PM
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Kerry Speaks

John Kerry has arrived at the Fleet Center, and I’m getting my Fisking impulses ready. I also have a tall black and tan ready for the John Kerry Acceptance Speech Drinking Game – although I have a feeling I won’t be able to keep up with that while still maintaining enough coherency to blog. Kerry is up in 45 minutes.

First up is Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private RyanPimping Senator Kerry...

8:23 – Alex and Vanessa Kerry are on the stage. Alexandra is not wearing anything see-through – which may either help or hurt Kerry depending on how you look at it. Vanessa looks a lot like her father. These speeches always help humanize the candidate. Vanessa seems to be doing a very good job of this. She’s a pretty decent speaker, and she’s hitting all the right notes for something like this. It’s interesting that Vanessa is stating that Kerry “never faltered” on the campaign trail… we’ll hear this message several times tonight. Too bad for Kerry that his legislative record doesn’t bear that out. Vanessa is doing exactly what she needs to do – humanize Kerry. She should have been up there rather than Teresa as a keynote. This speech is quite effective.

8:30 – Here’s Alexandra. We’ll see if she matches her sister’s performance.

John Kerry performing CPR on a hamster? PETA will love that…

Another good story. The Kerry girls are certainly doing their father proud. A few rather touching moments there, even for a hardened Republican like me. Yes, John Kerry may be a great human being, but that doesn’t mean that he’d be a good President. All these introductions are just prologue – good prologue, but fluff nevertheless.

Kerry doesn’t play to our baser instincts? Then why allow someone like Michael Moore – a true anti-American bomb-thrower into his convention?

The girls did well with what they needed to do. A good start for Kerry.

8:35 – Here’s Steven Spielberg’s Pimping Senator Kerry. Very slickly produced, but we’ll see how that Vietnam footage plays.

Just a side note – the rest of the band Kerry played in are all Republicans who plan to vote for Bush…

And here we go with Vietnam… Interesting that Kerry is comparing himself with the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. I’m not sure how that will play, although it’s probably an effective thing to say.

The delegates are cheering at Vietnam being a wrong war – how tasteless.

This is a very slick film, very effective. Even Teresa looks good in this thing, which is no small feat. It’s propaganda by design, but damn, it’s good propaganda. Then, when you have Hollywood on your side, you can get the best production values.

8:50 – Here come John Kerry’s former swiftboat crew – at least those who support him.

Kerry’s Vietnam service has been the centerpiece of his campaign – but it isn’t enough. Yes, Kerry served in Vietnam. With Clinton the Democrats already decided that it doesn’t matter. All this posturing about Kerry’s service doesn’t insulate him from criticism, nor does it have any bearing on how he will perform as President.

8:55 – Here comes Max Cleland, the Democrats new bloody shirt to wave around. The problem being that outside the hard-core anti-Bush Democrats A:) no one knows who Max Cleland is and B:) no one cares. It’s more flogging the Vietnam issue. Yes, we all know that Kerry served in Vietnam. It’s becoming a cliche. Flogging something that happen three decades ago only diminishes the currency – besides, many Vietnam vets hate John Kerry’s guts.

Good thing I’m not starting the John Kerry Acceptance Speech Drinking Game now, or I’d be sloshed by now…

9:02 – Cleland is hitting the usual Democratic themes we’ve heard umpteen million times before tonight alone. Just bring him out already!

Cleland looks decidedly like a televangelist. I would have definitely not had him introduce Kerry – he only appeals to hardcore Democrats. Alexandra and Vanessa would have been much better than Cleland for the introduction. I think Kerry is losing his audience already, which is not good for him. He should have started right at 10:00 EST.

Oh, and it’s Crispus Attucks, not Atticus. Yes, I’m being pedantic. So sue me.

9:06: HEEEERRRREEEE’S JOHNNY!

Hmmm… by the looks of it, I’d say Kerry’s off the botox. I figured he’d have more in him than a bulging can of mushrooms for this. Probably looking for that gravitas factor.

9:10: Finally, Kerry actually gets into his speech.

He’s reporting for duty?! Good Lord!

“We’re here tonight because we love our country”... except for Michael Moore, of course.

Kerry is flubbing lines, and hesitating. This is not a very auspicious start for him. Granted, it could be emotion, but it doesn’t come across that way.

“Trees as the cathedrals of nature…” Good Lord.

9:15 – Kerry is still hammering the biographical information. Kerry rode his bike into East Berlin as a kid – probably where he got some of his policy ideas.

I have some rather lengthy analysis on Kerry’s opening theme about restoring pride internationally – but that will have to wait as I don’t have time to hit it and keep up with the speech.

We won the Cold War… no thanks to you, Senator.

There’s something missing here – not one word about terrorism. This is Kerry’s Achilles Heel.

Telling the truth to the American people – another bone to the “BUSH LIED!” crowd. Shameless.

He wants us to judge him by his record – you damn well better believe we will. His record is simply atrocious.

9:19 – More red meat to the base. This is not going to go over well. Kerry is going on the attack, and this is going to backfire on him in a big way. The gratuitous dig on Ashcroft is assine. Bush better push him on this.

9:20 – Here’s the first mention of terrorism – entirely offhand before going right on to the economy again.

Now Kerry is painting a horribly dim picture of this country – there goes that optimism, despite what Kerry wants to paint it as being.

Is Kerry implying we don’t believe in ourselves anymore? That may be true for the Democrats, but that won’t play well.

This is pabulum. This is cliche. Kerry is playing to the base right now. I don’t think this speech is so far doing what he needs to do to attract swing voters. This is the same basic stump speech he gave in the primaries. He has to illustrate something concrete, elsewise his speech is nothing more than platitudes. Granted, I’m not the most objective observer, but I don’t see this speech doing much besides preaching to the choir at this point.

9:24 – I don’t think America will embrace Teresa Heinz-Kerry – in fact, I think if anything she’s a liability for Kerry. However, the First Lady never really matters in a campaign, for better or for worse.

Kerry’s pretty animated right now. His speaking style is fairly good – Bush will have to be at his best in terms of oratory to match this.

9:26 – Now we get to September 11. I don’t think the public is going to blame Bush for breaking the post-September 11 unity – there’s plenty to go around.

9:27 – Another attack. More red meat. Bush can easily counter all this by asking the fundamental question about Iraq: “Was it right to liberate the Iraqi people?”

9:28 – By the time we have to go to war, millions of American could be dead. Bush needs to press this issue. The Bush Doctrine is necessary to protect this country – he needs to defend that doctrine. This argument can be easily countered by Bush.

9:29 – I think I know what Bush can do to devastate John Kerry… and I have the feeling that Karl Rove is smiling that Kerry just set it up.

9:30 – WE ARE NOT GOING IT ALONE! I HATE this argument. Our allies are fighting and dying with us, and I cannot stand anyone who brushes aside their contributions. Karl Rove, hit Kerry on this and hit him hard. Turn the argument on him. Show how Kerry is insulting the allies that matter. We can beat Kerry on this.

9:32 – Kerry is calling for ending the National Guard and Reserve! What the hell?! He’s going to get crucified on this one!

9:33 – “Strength is more than tough words” – which is all our military would have if Kerry had his way during the Cold War.

To be honest, I agree with Dick Morris. Kerry cannot win on national security, and bringing this up only helps Bush. The future belongs to freedom, but only if we’re willing to topple those regimes that stand against that freedom. Bush needs to make this case, and if he does it convincingly he can tear down Kerry on national security.

9:35 – Here we go with Kerry accusing his critics of calling him unpatriotic. I don’t think this plays well with swing voters. He’s implying that his critics don’t like democracy – this isn’t going to play well.

I think Kerry lecturing the country on patriotism is going to seriously hurt him. It comes off as arrogant and condescending.

9:37 – Kerry is harping on values now. OK, Senator. If values are more than just words, how can you reconcile your belief that life begins at conception with your support of abortion? Kerry is smart to tie values to economics, but I don’t think it’s going to work. Again, Kerry is trying to fight on Republican turf. I’m not sure this is going to work.

Kerry will not privatize Social Security – Bush needs to show how reform is necessary.

9:39 – Since when did the middle class have to wait for a tax cut? That line is not going to work.

9:40 – Family, faith, and hard work. Sorry, Senator, but those are values that government cannot create and often destroy.

Here Kerry goes on the loss of jobs. This is going to be a more effective argument for Kerry. However, I think the whole line about “help is on the way” won’t necessarily play well. At least it provides a theme for Kerry’s campaign so far – however, I think if the economy continues to improve this rhetoric will be less and less effective.

Wait, I thought Kerry was an optimist? Then why keep harping on all these sob stories? This is Democratic boilerplate. Like most of Kerry’s speech, it plays very well to the base, but it doesn’t appeal to swing voters.

9:43 – Kerry’s lower lip is distractingly shiny. The fact that I’m noticing this shows how Kerry is starting to lose me, and I’m trying to pay attention.

Here’s the fundamental problem Kerry is facing right now. His speech has lost focus. A good speech (and years of forensics has drilled this into my mind) is a speech that has a strong spine. Where’s the overall theme here?

Kerry supports PAYGO rules on the federal budget. Well, there’s one thing I agree with.

Kerry is promising to cut middle class taxes. Guess what, when a Democrat promises tax cuts, most people are disinclined to believe them. The richest 2% cannot possibly pay for everything. I think that if Bush can hit on a fiscally conservative plan to counter Kerry it could be devastating.

I’m still struggling with this speech. It’s a laundry list. It’s not engaging. It’s dry. Now granted, this will play well with the base, but it’s not the home run that Kerry needs. We’ll see if things get better in the home stretch, but I’m thinking that the Bush team is not quaking over this. Kerry looks like he’s sweating like a pig. It’s not as bad as Nixon in the 1960 debates, but it’s distracting nevertheless.

9:48 – Kerry wants us to be independent of Middle East oil – well, Senator, how about getting the oil in our own background in ANWR.

Good Lord, Kerry brought up the Saudis. More red meat for the base, but it’s going to sound crackpot to swing voters.

9:49 – “Go to John Kerry.com” Good Lord.

9:50 – Kerry is telling Bush to play nice. Not very effective when the crowd booed at Bush name and Kerry’s party is treating Michael Moore like the second coming. Again, Kerry is setting himself up for a fall.

Kerry is calling for Bush to reject division in politics. Does that go for his own party?

And looks like he just shot down John Edwards. Guess he forgot about that other nation.

9:52 – This mention of religion is going to hurt Kerry. Religious voters aren’t going to accept the idea that a pro-abortion candidate can argue that we’re trying to be on God’s side by supporting positions that directly contradict years of Judeo-Christian teachings.

9:53 – Kerry is starting to lose coherency in his speech again. This is a case of two many cooks spoiling the broth. It’s a mishmash. There are a few good lines in it, but Kerry is rushing it, and those lines are almost all lines for the base. This isn’t a horrible speech, but it isn’t a good one either. It would be a good primary speech, but I’m not sure Kerry is going to get a great bounce from this.

9:56 – Kerry was rushing if this was to be a 55-minute speech. It showed.

Posted By Jay Reding At 8:18 PM
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Kerry Speech Pregame

OK, I have the TV on FoxNews, a 12 pack of beer, and a cyanide capsule just in case I need it. I think I’m ready.

First, before the snark-fest begins, some serious analysis. This needs to be a homerun for John Kerry. His pick of Edwards didn’t give him much of a bounce. If he’s not up by at least 10 point at the end of the convention, considering that Bush has the airwaves all to himself throughout all of August, he’s going to be in trouble. This is a make-or-break speech, and if it doesn’t work, Kerry could see himself in serious trouble just as the election begins to truly heat up.

Kerry has to tell the swing voters why they should vote for him, not against George W. Bush. The Bush-haters are going to vote for him regardless – but they can’t carry him to victory. Kerry has to find a message, and after four days of contradictions, he’s going to have a tough time of it. Barack Obama’s quite brilliant speech said we’re one America – John Edwards says there are two. The Democrats are trying to paint themselves as optimists, yet they’re also trying to argue that America has never been more troubled. Kerry will emphasize the idea that character is made of actions, not words – yet he is notorious for being on both sides of any given issue.

Kerry has to wow everyone. He has to set the tone for the campaign and create the right message. It’s going to be a tough job for anyone – but it’s critical not to underestimate Kerry. This is going to be a close election, and Kerry could indeed strike one out of the park. The campaign could turn on this speech, which is why it’s the only part of this convention that really matters.

Posted By Jay Reding At 7:40 PM
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Taking My Life Into My Hands

I’ve decided to do something that could do irreparable damage to my life and sanity.

I’m going to watch all 55 agonizing minutes of John Kerry’s speech tonight. Even though I know it will be the most mind-shatteringly horrifying work since Alhazred created the forbidden Necronomicon and already one Kerry speechwriter was consumed alive by invisible demons while working on the speech, I’m willing to take that risk. Why, you ask? Because I’m willing to suffer for the art of blogging…

Fortunately, I’ll bring my trusty assistant Schells with me. I’ll be needing his comforts to survive such an ordeal.

Pray I come back alive… and not insane…

...well, more insane…

UPDATE: Apparently cries of Iä Iä Kerry ftagn! can be heard from the Fleet Center. Rumor has it that Boston was picked because Dunwich was too small to host the convention.

Posted By Jay Reding At 12:57 PM
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Threat? What Threat?!

Dedicated blog readers know that James Lileks is required nightly/early morning reading, but for those of you behind the curve today’s Bleat contains a real gem, even by Lilek’s stratospherically high standards:

Right now I have a browser window open to Fark, and a T-shirt ad shows Bush’s face with the logo “American Psycho.” What else do you need to know? As Teddy Kennedy said in his convention speech: “The only thing we have to fear is four more years of George Bush.” It’s really quite simple, isn’t it? We live in a manufactured climate of fear ginned up by war-crazed neocon overlords. There is no threat. The only thing we have to fear is Bush, who sits as we speak in the Oval Office sucking the marrow from Whoopi’s shin-bones.

If so, I wonder why anyone agreed to the stringent security policies that characterize this year’s conventions. Why the bomb-sniffing dogs? Why the snipers? Why the metal detectors, the invasive inspection of bags? Is it all an elaborate defense against Bush crashing the party and setting off a bomb belt, shouting God is Great, y’all!

No, they’re fearful of something else.

Damned if I know what, though. Damned if I know.

Another example of why Lileks is by far the best writer in Minnesota, if one of the best in the country…

Posted By Jay Reding At 12:44 PM
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Why Bush Is Strong

Matthew Dowd, the President’s pollster, has an analysis of the latest Washington Post/AP poll and why it shows good news for the President. Bush’s numbers have been rebounding around the same time Kerry’s numbers should be going up. As I’ve mentioned previously, Kerry won’t get a 15-point bounce from the convention even in his wildest dreams. A more moderate 7-point bounce is possible, but even then I think it will be short-lived.

Meanwhile, the President’s job approval numbers continue to creep up. The trick is taking these approval numbers and translating them into votes. If Bush can use August and the convention month to project a positive image of himself and elucidate a clear strategy for the next four years, I think we’ll begin to see the beginnings of a convincing Bush win. However, Bush is going to have to be on – he can’t afford to appear unpresidential or unprepared, and he has a strong tendency to do both. If his acceptance speech rises up to the level of his post-9/11 speeches he’ll win by a large margin.

August will be a key month in this contest, as it leads in to the true beginning of the campaign season. August is also the month where Kerry is tied up with federal spending limits, meaning that he can only make appearances and use local media while Bush can blitz swing states with ads. If Bush can make the best of his time leading up to the convention and New York goes well for him, this race could drastically swing to the President’s favor.

Posted By Jay Reding At 7:59 AM
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Edwards Speaks

I’ll admit straight out that I didn’t watch John Edward’s speech. In fact, I’ve assiduously avoided the entire Democratic Convention. I’ve never been a fan of conventions since no real actions happen – it’s like NASCAR is to me – it’s only interesting when something goes horribly wrong.

Fortunately, Power Line live-blogged the speech with hilarious effect:

10:33 Under Kerry-Edwards, we’ll have only one school system. Sounds like Communism to me. The best teachers will be moved to where they are most needed. Sounds like Chinese Communism to me.

10:34 We’ll also have only one economy, not the two we have now consisting of people who do well and people who don’t do that well. Sounds like, oh never mind.

Instapundit thinks that Edwards looked nervous. Captain Ed agrees with him. From what I’ve seen recapped on the news, I’d agree.

Edward’s spiel is inherently self-contradictory. There are these Two Americas, right? And those in lower America (think the steerage compartment on the Titanic) are stuck down there while the rich (think a certain Teresa Heinz-Jacob-Jingleheimer-Schmidt-Kerry) party on. (Except of course for Leonardo DiCaprio, who’s banging Kate Winslet in the back of a 1912 Renault… lucky bastard.)

Then you realize that Edwards is also saying that the son of a mill worker can become a rich trial lawyer – which makes you wonder, if we really live in Two Americas, shouldn’t John Edwards be dying of black lung while shopping at Costco for discount cans of beans? Or is that those Two Americas really just different aspects of the one America – you know, the America millions of people from Europe came to just becuase they had a bigger chance to make it big than anywhere else? And isn’t Edwards running on the same ticket as the guy who thinks we should make ourselves to be exactly like Old Europe?

One wonders where the American immigrants would come to if Kerry got his way. For irony’s sake, I hope it’s Mexico.

UPDATE: National Review has a good compendium of reactions to Edwards, including the ever-astute Larry Sabato. I agree that Edwards has the slickness down pat – although he’s weak on substance. Edwards also directly contradicts the much better speech of Barack Obama, which emphasized national unity. Obama’s speech was less hackneyed and delivered much better. Edwards’ key asset can be summed up by his boyish good looks – if this were a beauty contest he’d win hands down, but when it comes to experience and policy chops, Edwards is sorely lacking. Still, I don’t think we’ve seen the last of John Edwards, no matter what happens on Election Day 2004.

Posted By Jay Reding At 7:37 AM
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July 28, 2004

Gaming The Election

VodkaPundit shows some interesting predictions for the Electoral College vote in 2004, including political science guru Larry Sabato’s prediction of a narrow Kerry win.

My best guesses at the Electoral College vote for 2004 are virtually identical to the vote in 2000, with only New Hampshire going to Kerry from the 2000 Bush column. That gives Bush 274 electoral votes to Kerry’s 264. However, this race is extremely tight. If Bush loses Nevada the election becomes a 269-269 tie. If Bush loses Arizona, Florida, or Ohio, he’s sunk.

Although something tells me that Kerry is going to drop off before then and this election may not be as close as the evidence points to right now. I don’t think Kerry’s going to get much of a convention bounce, he’ll lead Bush by at least 5 points, but it won’t be much more, and it could be less. If I were going to grab a number out of my posterior I’d say Kerry will be up by 7 by the end of this week and into next. By the GOP convention, it will be back down to a rough parity with Bush.

August is Bush’s month – he can spend all he wants while Kerry cannot. The expectation is that Bush will use this time for negative advertising – I don’t think so. Look for him to shore up his own image with positive biographical ads before the GOP convention in New York. I think Bush will get a considerably larger convention boost than Kerry will, and I think if Bush can make this issue a referendum on terrorism and social issues, the election will break decisively in the President’s favor.

Then again, at this point, it’s anyone’s game. Anything could happen between now and Election Day, and this election could come down to just one key state and a few thousand or even hundred votes. Then again, I (and most everyone else) predicted a Howard Dean sweep in January, so this election could yet have a few surprises…

Posted By Jay Reding At 8:59 PM
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The Wrong Message

Something about this rubs me the wrong way. Yes, Kerry was probably running around the jungle playing soldier, but he also was a real soldier as well. He did serve his country. End of story. We’ve already established on both sides that having served in the military is not a necessary qualification to public office, nor should it be.

The fact is there are many more relevant things that can be said about John Kerry – what he did when he returned from Vietnam. His horrible argument that the slaughter that occurred after the US pull-out would never happen. His abysmal record in the Senate. His being on the wrong side of history on the Cold War, the Gulf War, and his refusal to support the troops in Iraq with badly-needed money for gear, ammo, and supplies. His feckless foreign policy. His attempts to make up with the French despite the fact that the French have every interest in seeing this country fail. His patrician arrogance. Any of these things are far more relevant to this campaign than Kerry prancing around in the jungle 30 years ago.

Besides, while Bush served, and the talk about him being “AWOL” is partisan tripe, the fact is that he didn’t serve overseas. Neither did Vice President Cheney. As even John Derbyshire notes such arguments are beside the point.

Kerry is a veteran. He deserves thanks and recognition for his service. It doesn’t give him a free pass on what he did subsequently, nor should his service insulate him from criticism on his policies or their effects on this country. However, maligning his service is simply gratuitous and focuses on the past rather than on what this election should be about – winning the war on terrorism and keeping America strong.

Posted By Jay Reding At 3:53 PM
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Unmasking Atrios

Apparently the real identity of left-wing moonbat blogger “Atrios” has now been revealed. Apparently he’s working for the Media Matters group by right-wing bombthrower turned left-wing bombthrower David Brock.

Which really throws a wrench into my “Atrios is really just a well-designed Perl script” theory…

Posted By Jay Reding At 7:32 AM
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Why The Democrats Are Clueless On National Security

Michele says it all.

Note to Karl Rove: use this in an ad. Nothing speaks more powerfully about the self-centered idiocy of the Democrats than this.

Posted By Jay Reding At 7:13 AM
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July 27, 2004

Dakota Bloggers

I’ve been remiss in updating my blogrolls with all the great bloggers here in South Dakota – an error which has now been fixed. Daschle vs. Thune, Ryne McClaren, Sibby Online, and South Dakota Politics are all great sources of commentary on both national issues, and the hot Daschle/Thune race here in the Rushmore state.

Posted By Jay Reding At 11:54 AM
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At Least I Wasn’t Alone

Thankfully I wasn’t the only one more inclined towards watching Stargate SG-1 rather than the Democrats. Although both feature parasitical snake-like creatures, Stargate is far more entertaining.

UPDATE: Hmmm… if they ever feature a Goa’uld version of Bacchus, Bill Clinton would be perfect.

UPDATE: Yes, I’m a nerd. So sue me.

Posted By Jay Reding At 10:33 AM
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Goldberg Gets The Gig

Jonah Goldberg will be replacing Ann Coulter at the Democratic National Convention as the conservative convention columnist for USA Today.

I’ve never been a fan of Ann Coulter, and her latest work has been bombastic, gratuitous, and lacking in substance. There’s a difference between being snarky and dropping ad hominems all over the place. Coulter is rapidly entering into Michael Savage territory, and that kind of reactionary bombast doesn’t help the cause of conservatism one little bit.

Goldberg has a much better balance of pop-culture humor and substance, and will make a fine counterpoint to the three-ring circus at the Fleet Center. Still, I’d be more than a little uncomfortable with being compared to the pompous anti-American gasbag that is Michael Moore…

UPDATE: On the other hand, it’s clear that the editors at USA Today seem to be unable to grasp the concept of sarcasm themselves. Considering that Coulter’s sarcasm is as subtle as a MOAB, saying "I don’t get it" in regards to her column doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the reading skills of USA Today’s editorial staff…

Posted By Jay Reding At 9:12 AM
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Sullivan Goes Off The Deep End

You know, I used to like Andrew Sullivan. He was witty, well-spoken, and clear on his position in the War on Terror. Now I’m convinced that he’s either being paid off by the DNC or his dislike of the President on gay marriage has completely clouded a judgement. Right now Sullivan is spending his time blowing kisses to John Kerry while trying to whitewash his absolute fecklessness on the war on terrorism.

If he thinks that John Kerry is a conservative in any way, shape, or form he doesn’t have a clue what conservatism is. If he thinks Kerry’s supposed strength on the war is anything but a façade he’s decieving himself. If he thinks that a return to normalcy is what this country needs while Iran develops nuclear weapons and al-Qaeda continues to plan their next move, he’s incredibly naïve.

Sullivan has abandoned his principles and is throwing out arguments that are patently contradictory to his own position. It’s sad to see someone who was once willing to see the big picture abandon that common sense for one issue. Kerry won’t support gay marriage any more than Bush will. Kerry will not pursue this war with the vigor that Bush will. Kerry’s Quixotic attempts to curry favor with the EU are doomed to failure before they’ve begun – Sullivan should well know that the EU is trying to restrain this country, and Chris Patten, Romano Prodi, Jacques Chirac, and others have all said so very openly.

Is gay marriage worth a US constrained by the same organization that supported Saddam Hussein and now supports the murderous genocide sponsored by the Sudanese government? Is it worth the Middle East falling into shari’a? Is it worth another 9/11?

Sullivan’s crush on Kerry is both intellectually dishonest and entirely inconsistant with his previous beliefs. If Sullivan wants to punish Bush for his position on gay marriage, he should come out and say it rather than offering asinine excuses for Kerry’s feckless foreign policy.

Posted By Jay Reding At 7:58 AM
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July 26, 2004

Bush Strikes Back

I hadn’t caught any coverage of President Bush’s speech to the Urban League, but it looks like Bush is pushing for the African-American vote in a serious way. This is an interesting political strategy, but if Bush can pull just enough of the African-American vote it could make a big difference in this race. Even 1-2% can make a difference in such a tight race.

His questions to the audience were exactly what he needed to say. For instance:

Does the Democrat party take African American voters for granted? It’s a fair question. I know plenty of politicians assume they have your vote. But do they earn it and do they deserve it? Is it a good thing for the African American community to be represented mainly by one political party? That’s a legitimate question. How is it possible to gain political leverage if the party is never forced to compete? Have the traditional solutions of the Democrat party truly served the African American community?

That’s what I hope people ask when they go to the community centers and places, as we all should do our duty and vote. People need to be asking these very serious questions.

Does blocking the faith-based initiative help neighborhoods where the only social service provider could be a church? Does the status quo in education really, really help the children of this country?

Does class warfare — has class warfare or higher taxes ever created decent jobs in the inner city? Are you satisfied with the same answers on crime, excuses for drugs and blindness to the problem of the family?

Those are legitimate questions that I hope people ask as this election approaches. I’d like to hear those questions debated on talk radio, I’d like it debated in community centers, in the coffee shops. It’s worthy of this country for this debate to go forward and these questions to be asked and answered.

I’m here to say that there is an alternative this year. There is an alternative that has had a record that is easy to see. If you dream of starting a small business and building a nest egg and passing something of value to your children, take a look at my agenda. If you believe schools should meet high standards instead of making excuses, take a look at my agenda. If you believe the institutions of marriage and family are worth defending and need defending today, take a look at my agenda.

This strategy is interesting, as African-Americans tend to be strong on family values, strongly against gay marriage, and strongly supportive of school choice. I have the feeling that Bush won’t be taking the African-American vote for granted this election cycle despite the electoral logic that points out that African-Americans are a solid Democratic voting bloc. The patrician John Kerry has a problem connecting with African-American voters, and the selection of the southerner John Edwards doesn’t help much.

If Bush can start to erode Kerry’s support among African-American voters and get them to consider the Republican Party it would be the single biggest shift in electoral politics since Nixon’s Southern Strategy. I rather doubt we’ll see a convincing swing in African-American voting this election cycle, but if we do, it will be very bad news for John Kerry. The Republican message of school reform, social values, and individual opportunity is one that can find fertile soil with many African-Americans who have to live with the failures of Democratic social policies, especially in regards to education. The GOP needs to be more proactive in attracting African-American and other minorities to the party – and it appears that years of the Democrats taking the African-American for granted may be creating a backlash.

Posted By Jay Reding At 11:12 AM
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Another Reason Why I Like George W. Bush

Will Collier notes that President Bush personally shook the hand of every single Air Force Academy graduate this year. Granted, it’s a little thing, but it shows the dedication President Bush shows to our military. Of course, this isn’t the only time the President has made special effort for the troops.

John Kerry may talk about his "band of brothers", the the military remains some of President Bush’s biggest fans – and things like this explain why.

Posted By Jay Reding At 10:55 AM
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Can ABB Win?

The Wall Street Journal provides a counterpoint, arguing that the Anybody But Bush Democrats are a force to be reckoned with. They argue that a political tsunami is rarely discovered until it breaks, and the left is largely united in its hatred of Bush. However, they also note this:

All of which shows that Mr. Kerry and his party aren’t running on ideology. They have been running mainly on character and the Senator’s biography as the anti-Bush. He won three purple hearts in Vietnam while Mr. Bush stayed home in the National Guard. He’s smart and sees the nuances of issues that the uncurious and witless Mr. Bush doesn’t. He’d get the Europeans to love us again, while Mr. Bush the cowboy cannot.

Perhaps the voters will find this reason enough to return Democrats to power. But we wonder. Successful challengers to incumbent Presidents are usually associated with some cause larger than themselves. Bill Clinton ran on the economy and health care in 1992, while Reaganism was the confluence of a generation of conservative ideas on economics, foreign policy and the culture. Is there a single idea, even one, that any voter could yet associate with a Kerry Presidency? This would be the week to let the country in on one.

The fact is that Kerry’s campaign has been thus far unable to elucidate any kind of overall theme – although we’re sure to get one in Boston. Edwards’ "Two Americas" theme won’t fly – it’s a stump speech that appeals to Democrats, but sounds rather dischordant for a campaign with one of the richest candidates in American history. It’s also a negative theme – and the Democrats are going to try and put a positive spin on the Kerry ticket. What we’re likely to get is a bizarre mix of pseudo-populism as a whitewash over the snarling hatred of Bush that is the real force behind the Democrats this year.

The question is, will this hate lead Kerry into office? I’m opimistic that it will not, but there is reason to fear such a scenario. If Kerry wins, he will be the weakest and most ineffectual President since Carter as the only force keeping the Democrats coherent evaporates and the party fractures along the many fault lines that exist just under the surface. Paradoxically, the Democrats might be best served by losing this year – the hatred of Bush is the only think keeping their party coherent, and without it they’ll likely fracture – sending moderate Democrats like Zell Miller increasingly towards the Republicans.

On the other hand, I think the WSJ is right when they say that political tsunamis are rarely apparent until they hit – but not in the way they intended. In late December/early January, who would have predicted the rapid collapse of the Dean movement? Dean had everything needed for success – a vigorous campaign, a dedicated following, and plenty of money. John Kerry was mortgaging his mansion to keep his campaign solvent. Yet by the end of Iowa it was clear that Dean was sunk – the scream became a symbol of a campaign that had gone off the rails.

Kerry has yet to reach his “Yearrgh!” moment, but something tells me it’s coming. The Kerry campaign has made some crucial mistakes, from Rolls-Royces on press badges to Teresa Heinz-Kerry lecturing everyone on civility in politics before telling a reporter to “shove it.” The Kerry campaign has fumbled and fumbled, and all it takes is one major slip for fortunes to change.

While the GOP does not even have the remotest luxury of complacency, the pronouncements of Bush’s imminent political failure are quite premature. This is going to be a close race, but Bush has been in close races before. The anger of the Anybody But Bush crowd is a potent political force, but anger didn’t work for Dole in 1996, it didn’t work for Dean in the primaries, and Kerry is going to have to start finding a message other than hatred of Bush if he’s to take the election.

Posted By Jay Reding At 10:42 AM
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Win Psychology

The latest Quinnipac poll shows that nearly half of all Americans and 24% of Democrats think Bush will win this November compared to only 36% who believe so with Kerry. Granted, I’ve seen numbers that are much closer in other polls, but most show Bush with the perceived electoral advantage.

I’ve long argued that in terms of voter psychology, people who vote on protest, like most Democrats today are the most fickle voters. If Bush is ahead in October, a number of Democrats will switch over to Nader or stay home. In a race this tight, all it takes is 1% of Democratic voters switching sides for anything to change.

Despite the fawning press coverage and the selection of Edwards as VP, Kerry remains tied with Bush in the polls or has only the slightest advantage. Right now Kerry should be up by at least 5, and at the end of the convention should have at least a 10 point bounce. The chances of this actually happening are slim to none. Kerry could get some bounce coming out of Boston, but I doubt it will be much of one. As I noted yesterday, this race is going to be tight, and the normal swings of political fortune will be muted on both sides.

Bush has barely begun to fight. He took Kerry down a notch once it was clear he would get the nomination, but Bush has been largely silent this summer. He’s letting Kerry try and gain ground, knowing that most voters make their decisions late in the race. I’ve been predicting that if there’s a shift in fortunes in this race it will be towards the end, and I stand by that prediction. If Bush can maintain that win psychology with the electorate and gain even a margin of 4-5% against Kerry in October, he will be reelected. Kerry is exceptionally weak. He has to fight in places like Wisconsin and Minnesota that should be safe Democratic states. Something tells me that Kerry is in far more trouble than the polls indicate. The “9/11 Democrats” will be a major factor in this race, and unless Kerry can be persuasive on security issues, he’s going to lose a good chunk of the Democratic vote.

I don’t think that the winner will break 300 Electoral votes (in fact, I’d pretty much say outright that won’t happen), however, I do think that Bush can yet pull off a convincing win. The Democrats have thrown as much mud as they can against the President, yet none of it has been able to stick. At this point, they’re rapidly running out of ammo. If this keeps up, I have a feeling that those 47% of voters surveyed by Quinnipac will prove to have been right.

Posted By Jay Reding At 8:10 AM
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