The Peking Duck: Newest Gallup Poll Numbers

June 08, 2004

Newest Gallup Poll Numbers

This is sweet: "The poll finds Kerry leading Bush in the presidential contest by 49% to 44% among registered voters, and 50% to 44% among likely voters."

The nasty part is yet to come, and Bush/Rove will be pulling all the stops to smear Kerry and anyone who stands up for him. They are doing one hell of a job on George Soros already. But I think the people are looking for more substance this year and less BS. Bush's record speaks for itself. If the only kind of ads he can run are attack ads, and none that speak to his achievements, the conclusion is inevitable: he hasn't achieved anything.

These figures for a sitting president are abysmal, and there's no way the Bushies aren't panicking. With the Valerie Plame case on the horizon, the 911 commission's report set to come out, Michael Moore's movie hitting the theaters on June 25 and, of course, the Abu Ghraib story barely even getting started yet, Bush will have a lot to deal with.

[Note about Fahrenheil 9/11: I take Michael Moore with a big grain of salt, but I do believe the film is poised to do considerable damage. For the polarized voters it won't have much if any effect. But it's sure to be a big hit among college students, and from what I've seen in the trailer, it's a damned powerful movie and I won't be surprised to see it boost student voter registration. It certainly won't help Bush in any way.]

Baked by Richard TPD at 08:51 AM | TrackBack (0)

Comments

http://www.capitolhillblue.com/artman/publish/article_4636.shtml

Posted by: Tom - Daai Tou Laam at June 8, 2004 08:07 PM

TJ, I had seen the Capital Hill Blues article -- absolutely devastating. Unfortunately, they've had some serious problems with their reporting accuracy so I was cautious about posting it. Personally, I suspect every word is true.

Posted by: richard at June 8, 2004 08:51 PM

Notice that Gallup also reports a lead of Kerry by 5 points in March. But, at the beginning of April, Bush was on top again. The point: 5 points is not sweet...not with months left. If things start to look up in Iraq....or the UN security council unanimously approves of the transition govt (as it did today)...and the violence does not escalate more..., Bush's figures will probably creep up again. As for the prison scandal, much more shocking news must be revealed than new pictures. New pictures can still add up to old news. A 100 per cent smoking gun had better be found in the hands of the administration to do more damage than the scandal has done. And isn't the economy looking up.........

Posted by: Thomas at June 9, 2004 09:42 AM

Thomas, if you look at historical voting patterns in the US, you'll see that Bush is in an extremely precarious position. Even if things remain status quo with no smoking gun, the odds are now in Kerry's favor, mainly because the undecideds always go in greater numbers to the new guy as opposed to the incumbent. And there is one big issue here that people are concerned about, even more than the economy, and that is Iraq and a sense that we were duped, and that Bush doesn't have a viable plan there. That is the true wild card. If you read analyses today even by conservative pundits, the deal worked out with the UN is nothing to write home about for Bush. There is now greater inventive than ever for outside terrorists and internal militias to cause trouble. It's very hard to call -- impossible, of course -- but that Bush is in a real bind is a matter of fact. When you consider his ratings just 5 months ago, it's shocking. No incumbent president has won an election with such poor numbers so close to election day. Maybe Bush will surprise us all, but today I'll put my money on Kerry.

Posted by: richard at June 9, 2004 09:52 AM

"Fahrenheil"

Freudian slip... or not?

Posted by: vaara at June 9, 2004 12:50 PM

Wow Vaara, you have got a good eye! No, it was not intentional -- a true Freudian typo. Thanks for pointing it out.

Posted by: richard at June 9, 2004 01:01 PM

Well, that's my job.

Posted by: vaara at June 10, 2004 04:03 AM