August 18, 2004
"For the first time since the Vietnam era, foreign affairs and national security issues are looming larger than economic concerns in a presidential election," according to a new
Pew Research Center Poll.
The September 11 attacks "and the two wars that followed not only have raised the stakes for voters as they consider their choice for president, but also have created deep divisions and conflicting sentiments over U.S. foreign policy in a troubled time."
"Nowhere is the partisan divide more evident than in views of America's global standing. Fully 80% of Democrats and 74% of independents say the U.S. is less respected by other countries than in the past. Only about half of Republicans (47%) believe the U.S. has lost respect."
Sen. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) "made his first public statement" today about New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey's "impending
resignation, saying that he accepted Mr. McGreevey's decision to remain in office until Nov. 15 and would not push for a special election this fall," the
New York Times reports.
"But Mr. Corzine's statement left open the possibility that he might run to succeed Mr. McGreevey if the governor bows to pressure from Democratic Party leaders and decides to step down sooner."
"It was unclear whether Mr. Corzine's statement would end or simply complicate the effort to oust Mr. McGreevey immediately."
A
new poll finds kids would rather vote for Sen. John Kerry than President Bush. Though the poll’s respondents were not yet old enough to vote, 44% said they support Kerry, whereas 38% support President Bush.
Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:
- Pennsylvania: Kerry 48%, Bush 43% (Quinnipiac)
- Michigan: Kerry 48%, Bush 42% (Strategic Vision)
- Wisconsin: Kerry 47%, Bush 46% (Strategic Vision)
- Georgia: Bush 54%, Kerry 40% (Strategic Vision)
- Oklahoma: Bush 56%, Kerrry 36% (NRSC)
- New Mexico: Kerry 46%, Bush 46% (Rasmussen)
- Ohio: Kerry 50%, Bush 41% (Gallup, registered voters)
- Ohio: Kerry 48%, Bush 46% (Gallup, likely voters)
"Many Americans don't realize it, but large-scale voting in the tight 2004 presidential race will begin well before Election Day in many battleground states," the
Wall Street Journal's John Harwood reports. "Some analysts estimate that nearly one in three voters will mark ballots before Nov. 2 -- accelerating efforts by both parties to mobilize targeted constituencies."
"Most of the potential battleground states in the contest between Mr. Bush and Sen. John Kerry will allow voters to cast ballots before Election Day -- without requiring a reason."
A
Boston Globe piece notes political scientists "estimate that this year more than 20 percent of voters are likely to cast their ballots for president before Nov. 2, up from 15 percent four years ago."
"I've reached the conclusion, retrospectively, now that the inadequate intelligence and faulty conclusions are being revealed, that all things being considered, it was a mistake to launch that military action."
-- Rep. Doug Bereuter (R-NE), commenting on the Iraq war "in a letter to constituents in the final days of his congressional career," quoted by the
Lincoln Journal Star.
Addressing
speculation yesterday, former New Jersey Gov. Thomas Kean (R) "told state Republican leaders today that he has no interest in running for Governor in a November 2004 Special Election,"
PoliticsNJ.com reports.
"Kean's refusal leaves businessman Douglas Forrester as the front-runner for the still hypothetical contest for the '04 Republican gubernatorial nomination... Former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, an active candidate for the '05 nomination, is not viewed as having enough party support to win a small establishment nominating process."
The
Philadelphia Inquirer notes New Jersey's "feud over gubernatorial succession has united leaders from both parties on one point: The time has come for a lieutenant governor."
"In 45 other states, there would be no controversy over the succession: The lieutenant governor or secretary of state would prepare to take office... But in New Jersey -- as in Maine, New Hampshire, Tennessee and West Virginia -- there is no statewide elected leader waiting in the wings after a governor leaves office early."
The
Jersey Journal says that to make the change "there would need to be a three-fifths vote in both houses of the Legislature to get the measure on the ballot, then it would have to approved by the voters." It is "almost certainly too late to get on this November's ballot."
August 17, 2004
Here are the latest Senate polls from around the country:
- Colorado: Coors (R) 48%, Salazar (D) 47% (Survey USA)
- California: Boxer (D) 53%, Jones (R) 36% (Public Policy Institute)
Kos discovers at least
60 newspapers that printed as a "letter to the editor" a
form letter available on the Bush campaign website that praises the president's economic policies.
Regular
Political Wire readers will remember a
similar plot was exposed in early 2003. At the time, newspapers pledged to
fight back.
Bush campaign staffers "tore up the ticket" of a 55-year-old social studies teacher and refused her admission to hear the president speak "because she sported a small sticker on her blouse that touted the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards," the
Traverse City Record-Eagle reports.
Hardblogger notes Chris Matthews objected to the use of "a sound bite from a
Hardball show that aired on January 6, 2004. The soundbite in question was used in an
RNC web-video recently to claim that Kerry had 'flip-flopped' on his Iraq war position and that he was the 'anti-war' candidate."
Make sure to watch video clip (or read the
transcript) from last night's show to see Matthews "set the record straight" with Bush strategist Matthew Dowd. It's very entertaining.
"President Bush's full-term effort to court Jewish Americans has failed, according to a new poll that shows him trailing Sen. John Kerry among those voters in the race for president by 53 percentage points," the
Washington Times reports. This
press release has more details.
Meanwhile, a
new poll shows Muslim support for Bush falling as well, eroding "so swiftly" that it "could swing the presidential election in key battleground states."
It's not good for Bush, but it's interesting to see Jews and Muslims agreeing on something.
Update:
Chris Bowers notes an interesting difference between poll results of registered vs. likely voters. "On average, Bush does three points better under likely voter models than he does under registered voter models."
Here are the latest state polls:
- California: Kerry 54%, Bush 38% (Public Policy Institute)
- Maryland: Kerry 53%, Bush 40% (Gonzales Research)
- Nevada: Bush 47%, Kerry 46% (Rasmussen)
- Colorado: Kerry 47%, Bush 47% (Survey USA)
Update II:
Zogby has declared that four additional states -- Arizona, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia -- are swing states based on recent polling.
"Online protests targeting GOP websites could turn out to be more than symbolic during this month's Republican National Convention, possibly blocking a critical communications tool for the party,"
Wired reports.
"Hardened electronic activists are planning to jam up the servers of
GeorgeWBush.com,
GOP.com and related websites, once the Republican National Convention gets underway Aug. 29."
Says one hacker: "We want to bombard (the Republican sites) with so much traffic that nobody can get in."
Q. Which state is most over-represented in the Electoral College?
A. Since Electoral Votes are allocated to each state based on its number of Senators plus the number of Representatives, Wyoming, with the lowest population of all the states, has the greatest number of Electoral Votes relative to its population. Conversely, California with 55 Electoral Votes, is the most under-represented state.
As an example of the disparity,
Brendan Loy observes that 11 "red states" make up "the heart of the solid Republican Mountain West and Great Plains" and have a population of 18.6 million. The state of New York, in contrast, has a population of 18.9 million. Nonetheless, New York has 33 electoral votes while the other 11 states have a combined total of 52.
In the most recent issue of
GQ, Sen. John Kerry names Charlize Theron, Catherine Zeta-Jones and Marilyn Monroe as his favorite leading ladies. He also discusses his time as a bachelor in Washington: "Those were not good days… I think if you ask anyone, Bob Kerrey, or anyone who's been single on Capitol Hill, you'll find it's no fun... That's not a good world, and everyone wants a piece of you, and all I can say is thank God I found Teresa."
"The evil is the same... The evil that we fight is but the shadow of the evil that we do."
-- Illinois U.S. Senate candidate Alan Keyes (R), quoted by the
Chicago Sun Times, saying that women who choose to undergo abortions are "essentially terrorists."
With Sen. Jon Corzine (D-NJ) "signaling that he would run for governor in a special election this fall, key Democratic leaders are intensifying their efforts to persuade Gov. James E. McGreevey to quit immediately," the
Newark Star-Ledger reports.
The
New York Post says McGreevey "is willing to resign soon and allow a special election, but only if" Corzine "makes a personal plea." However, a McGreevey op-ed in
USA Today sounds like he's standing firm on when he'll step down.
The
New York Times notes the tug of war over Corzine: "New Jersey Democrats want" him "to run for governor, while Washington Democrats want him to help win back the Senate."
Meanwhile, the
Trenton Times reports Republicans "also have been calling on McGreevey to step down now" and "floated" former Gov. Tom Kean's (R) name "as the possible GOP candidate."
Update: Another
New York Times piece notes two lawyers filed a class action yesterday "to compel the state to order an election for governor on the Nov. 2 ballot. The lawyers, Bruce Afran and Carl Mayer, who are not affiliated with either party, argue that Mr. McGreevey effectively vacated the office when he announced his departure."
What the article doesn't mention is that both lawyers are former
Green Party candidates.
The
New York Times reports on the Kerry campaign's newest tactic -- the "front porch visit." They are "low-key, invitation-only events, where perhaps 100 people sit around red-checked picnic tables, raising hands with questions rather than waving signs with slogans, mimic the town-hall style campaigning for the Iowa caucuses at which both" Sens. John Kerry and John Edwards excelled.
"Situated mainly in swing states, the visits are intended to emphasize the Democrats' kitchen-table economic appeal - light on partisanship, laden with 'we're here for you.'"
Ralph Nader "filed suit in federal court challenging the constitutionality of state laws that
kept him from qualifying for the Nov. 2 ballot in Arizona," the
Arizona Republic reports.
Meanwhile, the
Charleston Post and Courier notes Nader "lost his bid to get on South Carolina's presidential ballot as a petition candidate."
And the
Oregonian says "a public employees union claimed Monday that it has uncovered widespread fraud" in the Nader campaign's "effort to gather enough signatures to qualify for Oregon's ballot."
But the
Portland Press Herald reports Nader will likely be on the ballot in Maine.
August 16, 2004
Here are the latest polls from the presidential race:
New Jersey Democrats and Republicans seem to agree on one thing regarding the
scandal that brought down Gov. Jim McGreevey (D) last week: they both want him to leave office immediately.
The
New York Times notes that though McGreevey "intends to stay in office until his announced resignation date of Nov. 15, many of his fellow Democrats are trying to devise a way to ease him out of office this month and draft U.S. Sen. Jon S. Corzine to run in a special election in November."
And the
Philadelphia Inquirer says Republicans "take to the court of public opinion, urging McGreevey to resign immediately to make way for a gubernatorial election Nov. 2."
Update: A new
Survey USA poll shows most voters also want McGreevy to leave office:
- Leave Office Now -- 44%
- Leave Office November 15th -- 24%
- Remain in Office -- 30%
Here are the latest Senate polls from around the country:
- North Carolina: Bowles (D) 47%, Burr (R) 38% (News and Observer)
- North Carolina: Bowles (D) 50%, Burr (R) 42% (Survey USA)
- Kentucky: Bunning (R) 57%, Mongiardo (D) 33% (Survey USA)
A
plan to scrap the winner-take-all system of allocating electoral votes in Colorado will be on the ballot in November, the
AP reports. If passed, the amendment "would make Colorado the first state to allocate electoral votes proportionately according to the popular vote, rather than giving a winner all of the state's electoral votes."
Supporters gathered enough signatures to put the measure on the ballot. Had the proposal had been in place four years ago, Al Gore would be president today.
"Only two other states do not have winner-take-all systems of casting electoral college votes. Nebraska and Maine give two votes to the winner of each state, and remaining votes are cast to show who won each congressional district."
Sen. John Kerry "now departs the political stage -- temporarily -- as President Bush prepares to ascend it," the
Dallas Morning News reports. Kerry "wrapped up his two-week national tour Friday on the West Coast, hoping his slight lead in most polls can withstand the coming blast from the Republican convention."
"Then comes eight weeks of furious stumping, punctuated by what both sides view as the next major milestone: the debates."
Update: The
AP notes Kerry "is adding some of the Democratic Party's most experienced strategists to his team for the stretch drive against President Bush, including hometown allies from Boston and top advisers of former President Clinton."
The
Washington Post profiles John Heinz IV, the stepson of Sen. John Kerry that "you did not see at the Democratic National Convention or on
Larry King Live. He is the one who doesn't want his picture in the newspaper, who won't do interviews, who is fiercely independent and even more fiercely private."
"We could fill volumes with what we don't know about Heinz IV. With information available on the Internet and some words with the very few folks who will talk about Heinz, the puzzle pieces of his life begin to fit together."
Newsday notes his silence "has transformed him into perhaps the most intriguing of John Kerry's and George W. Bush's kids and stepkids, though one of the least known and least knowable. Not to mention least accessible."
Meanwhile,
Political Wire makes an interesting discovery: Heinz IV
donated $1000 to Ralph Nader in the 2000 election.
The
New Yorker profiles Errol Morris -- the director of the "inventive and stylized documentaries"
The Thin Blue Line,
Mr. Death, and
The Fog of War -- who is making "a series of documentary political ads featuring Republican switchers, people who voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and will vote for John Kerry this time around."
The ads are available from
MoveOn.
"For the first time in history, two members of Yale's secretive Skull and Bones Society are running for president," the
Hartford Courant reports. Neither Sen. John Kerry or President Bush "will talk about the elite club. But instead of putting the question to rest, their silence has only given conspiracy theorists more fodder."
The
AP notes the group's activities "are swathed in secrecy, leading to wild rumors that its members are grave robbers, murderers and thieves."
Secrets of the Tomb: Skull and Bones, the Ivy League, and the Hidden Paths of Power
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"I'm Vernon Robinson and I approve this message because Akhtar didn't come here to live the American dream. He came here to kill you."
North Carolina congressional candidate Vernon Robinson (R), quoted by the
AP, in an ad mentioning the Pakistani man recently arrested after videotaping Charlotte skyscrapers.
"After months of national media speculation and cautious words" from Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), the
Lincoln Journal Star reports "he said it squarely" during an airplane interview last week: "I will consider a race for the presidency."
"Significantly, Hagel expects to make appearances at caucus meetings of the Iowa and New Hampshire delegations during the Republican National Convention in New York later this month."
The
Omaha World Herald notes Hagel "said he will also consider two other options - running for re-election to the Senate or returning to the private sector."
The
AP quotes Hagel: "If I decide to run for the presidency -- or seek re-election -- it will be for the right reasons, and the reasons are that I think I can make a contribution and help effect change in our country and have some influence over the direction of this country."
The recent party switch of Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA) "was déjà vu all over again for voters in the Bayou State,"
Roll Call reports.
"Over the past two decades, Louisiana has produced more high-profile party switchers in its Congressional delegation than any other state."
The most important explanation is the state’s open primary system, "the only one of its kind in the United States. Under Louisiana law, all candidates for a particular office run in an open primary in November. If no one receives 50 percent of the vote, the two top votegetters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to a December runoff."
Meanwhile, the
Baton Rouge Advocate notes the fallout over Alexander's switch continues.
