Kevin -

The three you quote are not the conventional wisdom; the CW is that things are going great, ~4% GDP growth for sure this year, employment up (even if less than Bush promised), everything's coming up roses!

The three you cite may be a minor trend (3 is the definition of trend, isn't it?), but they sure as hell aren't the CW. Even Brad deLong's gang are talking about continued growth, etc.

The mini-trend may be right, or it may be the future CW, in which case it'll be wrong at that time.

Right now, I'd spend more time worrying about the economy tanking than about it getting better (or at least about it getting better enough to give W 4 mo' years). I just hope that what W has left for Kerry to clean up isn't so bad that it can't be cleaned by 2008.

Posted by: fatbear at March 11, 2004 10:18 PM | PERMALINK

Based on your theory and a quick google search, housing prices are heading for the tank.

Posted by: flory at March 11, 2004 10:27 PM | PERMALINK

Given that we're just down from a recent stock market peak it is prime time for bear columnists to get some attention. That doesn't mean they're wrong--the Bush DownTerm hasn't been all that long or awful compared with some (Carters oil-driven inflation, Reagan first term, great depression, etc.).

The scary bit is how far off their norms some economic indicators are: incredibly low prime rate, incredibly low middle-class investment rate, strong stock market, highest ever home ownership rate, very high real unemployment (somewhere between 8-10% when you count the ones who've given up), while the foreign trade and federal budget deficits percentage-wise are close to their historical peaks. What's scaring economists is they haven't seen this combination before, and some of the markers can't move any farther without breaking things.

The positive view is that backing out of this economic corner isn't all that hard: get this irresponsible adminstration out of office and move back to a middle path, and the US economy will recover nicely: use deficit spending on US infrastructure; actually fund the SEC; tone down the economically disastrous war on drugs; and give up on our dream of an Iraqi client-state. This means we have to secure our long-term oil by other means, but the near-term danger of an economic meltdown is high enough that we don't have much choice.

Posted by: dryListener at March 11, 2004 10:30 PM | PERMALINK

The thing is, actual permanent high unemployment exists in many others industrialized countries. It might be what's happening in the US right now.

Posted by: linca at March 11, 2004 10:36 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, you might have something there if it weren't for the fact that Chimpy is trying so damn hard to keep the economy in the tank.

Fatbear is right, the GDP is growing. But what is GDP? It's a measure of wealth creation. But, as my old professor used to say, "follow the money." Where's that wealth going?

Everywhere you look, the system is rigged:

1. GDP is rising on the tide of "increased productivity" which simply means more profits, fewer employees.

2. Changes to overtime work rules mean that employers can keep stretching that productivity - just make your employees work longer hours! Sure, you can take your comp time, but keep in mind that if your output suffers, we got drawers full of job applications . . .

3. Tax incentives to ship jobs overseas - how clever!

4. The tax structure (if you properly consider increased local taxes and user fees) is becoming downright regressive.

5. The burden of all kinds of external business costs (pollution, product liabilities, workplace injuries) is being shifted onto the working and middle classes.

6. The crushing federal deficit is absolutely going to lead to rapidly spiraling interest rates just as soon as the Japanese get tired of financing our debt.

7. Meanwhile, back at Joe's Small Business, he's waiting for things to pick up, but every last dime his prospective customers might have is being spent on necessities at the cheapes place they can find them - yep, Wal-Mart.

The fact is, we've had weak labor markets before, but never before has the government taken such an active part in exploiting, rather than ameliorating it. Since, contrary to GOP "supply-side" fantasies, every single recovery has been led by middle and working class demand, I just don't see from whence it will come.

It's not like this is unprecedented. Pick your favorite Latin-American economic meltdown.

Posted by: Brautigan at March 11, 2004 10:40 PM | PERMALINK

Do I look like Sawicky? Do I look like DeLong?

Do I look stupid enough to predict a reverse in a business cycle without having a train of fools paying me big bucks for my advice?

Not that your theory of determining the consensus expert opinion, and then going the exact opposite way is necessarily wrong, but throwing darts or flipping coins should at least be given a trial, as controls.

Serious answer, no. Unfortunately.

Posted by: bob mcmanus at March 11, 2004 10:46 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, just a suggestion--when you link to subscription-only articles with an annoying free registration where we all fill in 90210 for the zip code, maybe you could create the fake account for us, and post the username/password with the link?

You could have some fun with it, like using federal/deficit for WSJ, fabulist/toolong for NYTimes, etc.

Posted by: Trackmenot at March 11, 2004 10:48 PM | PERMALINK

Yes, you can find plenty of voices saying things are just rosy and ducky as well, so I wouldn't put too much stock in it, although I agree with you, Kevin, that it's an interesting trend.

There's all kinds of evidence on each side, but I wouldn't be surprised if there was a recovery, largely jobless initially, as there was in '92. A lot of factors went into fueling the economic boom of the 90's, but you certainly have to point to the vast increases in productivity brought on by automation, computers, and the nascent internet. Is another boom ahead? Hard to say, but you can make the argument, at least in some sectors. For example, design and manufacturing is just now starting to see large productivity gains based on better collaboration tools allowing different teams to work on a product simultaneously, more automation, and the ability to take a product from concept to
production without using paper. Probably other sectors of the economy have similar revolutionary productivity gains in their future, and for all the hype surrounding the internet in the late 90's, some of the hype was rational and is already leading to increases in productivity.

I do expect the real estate bubble to burst fairly soon. Houses all over the country have reached ridiculous valuations in small amounts of time; I know of a few houses in Southern California that have recently sold for almost double what they cost in 2000.

Posted by: Ted at March 11, 2004 10:48 PM | PERMALINK

Did you see Greenspan's comments about variable rate mortgages? When interest rates (inevitably) rise, and the housing market cools off, people are going to be stuck with homes that are worth less than their mortgages. Can you say housing crash?
http://www.suntimes.com/output/savage/cst-fin-terry045.html

Posted by: doug r at March 11, 2004 10:51 PM | PERMALINK

As the first comment points out, these three aren't the conventional wisdom. Kevin's analysis here makes it seem like economic downturns and upswings are some karmic force that smacks folks upside the head when they get to optimistic or pessimistic. This is wrong.

Of course, capitalism goes in cycles. The folks who thought in the late '90s that the good times were going to last forever were ignoring some obvious problems that the market, in one way or another, was going to correct. At some point, the economy should bring more jobs. However, there may be certain factors in place now that are depressing job growth, despite the otherwise brighter picture. These factors are not permanent, and will change, at some point.

What needs to be analyzed is what is preventing employers from adding jobs. Today, at DeLong's website, he spotlighted a man who theorized that skyrocketing health insurance costs are making businesses reluctant to hire -- the costs of bringing on new workers are much more than salary. While this is not the only factor, it makes sense that this would contribute to the general relutance to add workers.

Posted by: Mike B. at March 11, 2004 10:52 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin

According to your theory,up is down and right is wrong.
This economy IS having a very hard time recovering.Like a post above said housing is about to tank.This is a BIG deal.It's been the housing market that has driven this economy for the last few years,say wht you will about the stock market but housing has been going gang busters for so long that everyone takes it for granted.When you have two factors of the housing sector go in the tank you havea recipe for economic disaster.For one as was said prices are going to go down and very soon.This is where the money has been comming from for the consumers.Thru multiple refinances people have had extra money to spend.When prices fall on homes theres no equity left to refinance.

Second if you think intrest rates are going to stay flat,I have some real estate on Fl to sell you.Rates Will rise right after the election.When this happens the housing sector dies.No more houses to buy or sell and no more middle class people to sell them,repair them service them,remodel them and no more mid level bank managers to sell those loans to do all of the above.

Dont underestimate the housing market.It IS the pulse of the economy.

Posted by: smalfish at March 11, 2004 10:58 PM | PERMALINK

I'm not trying to get anyone to take this too seriously, but.....

I didn't say this was the conventional wisdom. I just said that I'm starting to see glimmers of this, and it might become the conventional wisdom before long. Keep your eyes open.

(Then again, maybe these folks are right and we're completely fucked. That's what I think most of the time.)

Posted by: Kevin Drum at March 11, 2004 11:01 PM | PERMALINK

I suspect that at the bottom of a lot of economists' false predictions is a failure to acknowledge the degree to which economic ups and downs are driven by crowd psychology.

The 90s boom mainly boomed so long because people had convinced themselves it was a new era in which everything, including downswings, were a thing of the past. The current bust in the job market, despite the financial ability of employers to hire more workers if they wanted to, is likely due to little more than a wariness among employers about the future. Alter the group sentiment, and the economy we would have seen in the 90s and now would be VASTLY different.

Problem is, coming to terms with the true effects of group psychology would make the dismal science the dreadful science. Prediction would involve a combination of complex statistics, sophisticated mathematical models, and animal entrails. Not exactly the sort of thing one is itching to talk about over drinks at the faculty club.

Posted by: frankly0 at March 11, 2004 11:01 PM | PERMALINK

To indulge in play a moment, the Law of Economic Conventional Wisdom, like many "laws of economics" is just an amusing heuristic that applies in extremely limited realms when the world is viewed as a whole. Try applying it, or the law of diminishing returns, in Harlem, Hunters Point, or Watts. They do not hold. Try applying it, or Keynsian theory, in the non-English speaking portions of impoverished India. Neither hold there either. Try applying it, or monetarism, in most of Sao Paulo, Brazil, or Lima, Peru, or fill in the blank in central Africa or Bangala Desh. Not only do these heuristics--serious or amusing--not hold in these kinds of places, where a majority of the world's populations live, they are totally irrelevant there. The trouble with most economic theory, serious or amusing (and it is often hard to distinguish the serious economic principles from the amusing ones), from Smith and Pareto, to Marshall and Keynes, to Hayek and Friedman, to Lucas and North, is that the theories hold for such a tiny percentage of the human population. Economics is largely an efficiency and cost shifting game played by haves at the expense of, or without regard for, have nots. Until it operates with models that hold across the entirety of the socio-economic landscape, it is really less a discipline or a science, than a common racket. all too often economics, serious or amusing, is just a very sophisticated technique and rationale allowing the haves to cost shift in a fashion that is systematically advantageous to them.

Posted by: D.C. at March 11, 2004 11:11 PM | PERMALINK

To cite a phrase I've seen in every investment book I've ever read, "This time it's different."

It usually denotes a top, but I suppose it could be used to denote a bottom as well.

Posted by: Linkmeister at March 11, 2004 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

kevin, you crack my ass up. believe me, the humor isn't wasted on everyone.

Posted by: Marc at March 11, 2004 11:19 PM | PERMALINK

It usually denotes a top, but I suppose it could be used to denote a bottom as well

Say instead that it usually denotes a point of inflection. A trending slope can become a surging exponential, or it could trend back in the opposite direction.

So, which is it? Are we going to see steady 8% per annum stock market growth, or is the US adopting Mexico's wealth distribution?

Posted by: dryListener at March 11, 2004 11:25 PM | PERMALINK

"or is the US adopting Mexico's wealth distribution?"

Somehow I dont see the general public standing for this.I'm not sure what form the backlash would take,But I would imagine that those that work for a living would tend to be of the forceful nature.Its hard to determine what any consequencs are but I can say I would be one of those resisting that end.

Posted by: smalfish at March 11, 2004 11:35 PM | PERMALINK

There are some big differences between the most recent recession and the one before that (early 1990s.) Certainly the attack on New York and the military response had an effect on the economy that can't be discounted. But other recessions were in the middle of the Cold War, and heavy military spending, too. Besides, military spending should help the employment situation, not hurt it.

I think those who have tagged the productivity issue probably have it figured out. The power of computers is now far beyond what it was ten years ago. Computers--cheap ones--now allow one white collar worker to do what it used to take secretaries, draftsmen, paste-up guys, artists, proofreaders, and a whole team of assistants to do.

My field is design engineering, and I have the potential to run a concept from back of the napkin to full-up engineering drawings, analyzed for stress and other factors, with just me and my computer. I won't tell you how many people and vendors this used to take. And ten years ago computers that did what mine can do were a hundred thousand dollars.

Multiply this by a few million such workers. Think about what you do if you work in an office, or at a drawing board, or running a factory. How many people did it used to take? Jobs have been outsourced all right--to that box you are looking at right now.

Eventually, the productivity will create new jobs, some of which don't even exist yet (is what you are doing for a living that was possible fifteen years ago? Blogging, maybe?) But it takes time.

And guess what? There's nothing the government can do to help. It just has to keep from hindering.

Also, in the early 1990s, there was no Internet. The obvious potential of the Internet driving a large part of the economy underground, including people working for pay, can't be discounted.

Watched the recycling truck today, dumping our new recycling hampers. The truck used to roll down the road, one guy driving, two burly guys hanging on to do the loading. Now one guy drives, and rarely gets out. A huge robot arm--I swear to God--comes out of the side of the truck, picks up the bin, and flips it into the top of the truck. The driver could just as easily have been a 90 pound weakling. I suspect at some point years from now the truck will roll up all by itself, looking for recycling bins.

Posted by: tbrosz at March 11, 2004 11:36 PM | PERMALINK

Just noticed that Ted nailed this computer productivity factor already.

Is there some way to find hard numbers on this theory?

Posted by: tbrosz at March 11, 2004 11:39 PM | PERMALINK

Kevin, with all due respect, I don't think you really make a very compelling case here that the "Conventional Wisdom" has now concluded that there's some sort of permanent, structural basis to the sluggish economy. You cite just three individuals, and only the first even hints that he might think that current conditions are somehow unique and enduring.

The most straightforward reading of the other two is simply this: "Things are kinda rotten right now, in specific ways, and we think it's likely to continue like this for awhile." That's a far cry from proclaiming the arrival of a new Dark Ages. And as a poster up at the top of this thread observed, MOST of the ongoing conventional wisdom seems to think that -- really -- the economy is actually doing well, save for that pesky business about unemployment.

Is the economy going to start booming now? Is it going to continue on in its sluggish, fitful and worrisome way? Is it going to tank? I haven't a clue ... and I don't think you do either, Kevin. Not, at least, based on this sort of stuff.

-- Roger

Posted by: Marsman at March 11, 2004 11:41 PM | PERMALINK

tbrosz, I was part of a startup sixteen years ago. The computers we had then were so much better than the ones that we had five years before that we could design parts and circuit boards without hiring a draftsman or a graphics artist. Our spreadsheets and database programs let us go for years without hiring business and salesfolk.

Five years before, just having computers meant that we didn't need secretaries.

These productivity enhancements weren't just creatures of the 90's.

Posted by: bad Jim at March 12, 2004 12:13 AM | PERMALINK

Certainly the attack on New York and the military response had an effect on the economy that can't be discounted.

Interesting thought tbrosz, but perhaps not in the way you intended. I remember back to 9/11 thinking that the economic impact of the destruction was nothing compared with the long-term impact to the airlines. At the time I was thinking of the airlines' bottom line, but now it seems that tying up every traveller for 1-2 hours before boarding could easily be a contributor to the current economic doldrums. Besides consuming the time of those most relevant to doing business, it discourages people from opportunistic trips--who wants to fly without a solid reason given the minimum 4 hour investment involved? Maybe the airport security inspections should be rationalized vs. the US passenger knowledge that any hijacking attempt requires an all-out response.

Posted by: dryListener at March 12, 2004 12:17 AM | PERMALINK

I'm always a bear (not a pessimist, I think the glass is simply the wrong size).

The oil price trend looks bad. The employment trend looks bad. The deficits (the debt trends) show no signs of improvement. Consumers are running out of borrowing options.

Demand looks weak and likely to weaken. We've spent a few years pushing on the string of the supply side and haven't gotten much out of it so far; is it entirely reasonable to suppose that pushing it once again will give us much, much more?

Posted by: bad Jim at March 12, 2004 12:21 AM | PERMALINK

"And guess what? There's nothing the government can do to help. It just has to keep from hindering."

Oh, I wouldn't go that far. Government is quite able to set the direction that research goes, and research often leads to these big booms. For example, consider a little ol' thing called the ARPANET. A logical administration might push hard for alternative energy research by turning money away from non-working missile defense systems into grants for alternative energy. Who doesn't think that having a secure source of energy is incredibly important for national security? There's a lot of exciting work going on in biomass, and even in conventional sources such as wind, where it's not so much research as really good engineering that is making wind energy cost-effective. Unfortunately for us, a lot of it's going on in other countries. And now it appears that Toyota Japan is taking the lead on hybrid engine technology, whereas poor old Ford is forced to license it. Pathetic.

"Also, in the early 1990s, there was no Internet. The obvious potential of the Internet driving a large part of the economy underground, including people working for pay, can't be discounted."

Very true. However, don't discount the dramatic effect of the personal computer, which came into its own in the late 80s. Before then, it was very hard to have a business consisting of one person and a computer, now it's commonplace.

Posted by: Ted at March 12, 2004 12:25 AM | PERMALINK

Not much help from a sanity check over at Brad DeLong, quoting John Berry on the workings of the Fed:

Of course, the Fed eventually will begin to raise rates. Everyone should hope so, because otherwise it would mean U.S. labor markets remained unacceptably weak.

which is to say: raising rates right now wouldn't do any good, obviously, but it would be dreadful to think that things won't somehow get better sometime.

Posted by: bad Jim at March 12, 2004 01:08 AM | PERMALINK

Anyone notice that the Producer Price Index (PPI) has gone missing for two months in a row? Computer problems, they say. No idea when it'll be fixed, they say. Now what kind of computer problem can't be fixed in a month?

So what good is the PPI? It leads the Consumer Price Index by about six months. In other words, it predicts inflation.

Now you don't suppose they're trying to hide something, do you?

Posted by: Benedict@Large at March 12, 2004 02:10 AM | PERMALINK

highest ever home ownership rate

more like 'mortgage borrowship', but OK.

I think a big problem is trying to compare today's economy to the go-go late 90s. Ain't gonna happen. We're not that far from the peak employment, and Krugman's recent jobs graph showed a final uptick, which reminded me of the uptick of Bush Sr's last 6 months in office (not that it portends a sustained uptick though).

Tbrosz, gov't can play a big role in the economy. You're right that its foremost duty is to do no harm (which is the #2 reason why they LIE about present conditions and future outlooks, telling the truth WOULD push everything into depression) -- BUT stuff like alternative energy research (Carter's "War On Oil" that Reagan subsequently canned), federal job retraining grants, rationalization of medical insurance (single payer), other tax policies targetting growth (instead of the bone-headed looting the 2001-2003 cuts mainly achieved) could have had very positive effects now. Too bad Jr is the worst president since Hoover, though, or we'd have some of that hope now.

Posted by: Troy at March 12, 2004 02:19 AM | PERMALINK

Posted by D.C.: "Economics is largely an efficiency and cost shifting game played by haves at the expense of, or without regard for, have nots. Until it operates with models that hold across the entirety of the socio-economic landscape, it is really less a discipline or a science, than a common racket."

Unfortunately, such widely encompassing landscapes are a long way off, judging by the lack of "regard" for your insightful (but obvious) remarks on this ostensibly liberal blog. Instead we have computers to take the rap for human suffering and illogical faith in the infinite power of capitalism to make corrections in due course. While this game is played, humanity is wasted and then blamed for its fate as real laws of mathematics are ignored. We only have one (1) planet, which any civilized morality would demand equal ownership in for all. For the rest of us to give special rewards to those who increase the worth of our planet is sensible if it adds to everyone's well-being. And this gives others incentive to do likewise. But when their reward -- when their wealth -- is gained by diminishing the wealth and well-being (their shares in planet ownership) of untold millions or billions of others, as is the norm under the "racket" that is our system, it is not sensible to allow such disregard and such inhumanity. Because it is nothing less than stealing. We live on a planet ruled by thieves.

Posted by: jayarbee at March 12, 2004 02:27 AM | PERMALINK

I've been fascinated with contrarianism for a long time, even to the point of trying to turn it into a thesis for a directed studies program.

It is, perhaps, the single most reliable method of predicting mass speculative behavior, for reasons that have to do with mathematics rather than just a Murphy's Law quirkiness. For example, have you ever noticed that when you're in a traffic jam, in a slow lane, and you try to switch to a fast lane, that fast lane immediately slows down and the lane you switched to immediately speeds up? It's quite disgusting. There are reasons for this, though: You are speculating about which lane will get you to your destination quicker, but so is everybody else, and thus, when you all switch to the faster lane, you relieve the burden on the slow lane and increase the burden on the fast lane. (I made this point to my advisor while we were stuck on the 405 on the way to a lecture at UCLA).

Now, the problem with contrarianism is that it's hard to identify a good contrary opinion indicator. And there's always the grave possibility that YOU are the best indicator for everybody else.

Now, another thing that you'll notice about the usefulness of contrary opinion is that it only becomes reliable when things reach extremes. For instance, when there is a mild and increasing sense of optimism in the stock market, this, historically, is quite often associated with a long term bull market. It's when speculative excess kicks in, usually measured at 80% or more according to whatever your indicator is, that you see things turn, sometimes in a big, big way.

Now, you're not speculating about the stock market, but rather the medium term course of the economy, I take it. The indicators you're using are the three people you mentioned. I wouldn't consider that a broad enough consensus to determine if contrarian effects are in motion.

Often, the best indicators, traditionally, are stupid people. For instance, back in December of 1992, I remember Rush Limbaugh, on his show, making totally hystrionic predictions about the future direction of the market based on Clinton's victory. Obviously, in retrospect, Rush Limbaugh was a good contrary opinion indicator. Perhaps drug addicts are to be preferred for this kind of thing.

Right now, I watch Kudlow and Cramer. They are a nice pair of total credulous idiots. And there's Bush and his whole crew of economic advisors. I would wait for them to panic. Then I would start to feel comfortable about the direction of the economy. Right now, they are convinced good times are not just coming, but they are already here, but WE JUST DON'T KNOW IT YET BECAUSE DEMOCRATS ARE DUMB.

So, perhaps to them, we are THEIR contrary opinion indicator. It's diabolically Zennish. You can drive yourself nuts thinking about this.

Posted by: Dumbo at March 12, 2004 02:31 AM | PERMALINK

jayarbee:

We only have one (1) planet, which any civilized morality would demand equal ownership in for all.

I know this is my broken record here, but are you familiar with Georgist land value taxation? I'm not much of a communist, but Georgism is simply the most elegant expression of your statement above with common-sense free-market mechanisms for realizing that dream.

I recall reading somewhere that Nader might put this LVT stuff into his platform later this year. I have yet to see any persuasive attack against taxing the unearned increment of land value increases, and I've been looking for a year now.

Posted by: Troy at March 12, 2004 02:47 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin get no turkee. Even bushCo says the stock market is doing great. As it's now NEGATIVE for the year the repug's very OWN barometer is failing since it is THEY who hault it out as "proof" of the tax cuts effectiveness.

Kevin, you KNOW better than this. Just because you're hauling in DONATIONS hand over fist to do a job you're obviously good at does not mean we are all putting horse-whip makers out of bidness.

How about that Manufacturing Czar! (tsar?)

Posted by: Jack at March 12, 2004 04:25 AM | PERMALINK

If you even marginally watch the markets, it should be patently obvious that the conventional wisdom, especially on labor markets, has been saying for months now that things will be better soon. All one needs to do is look at what the consensus forecasts were for the jobs reports over the last few months; these have consistently overestimated how many jobs would be in the report. A handful of outlier reports in the last couple days (notably by Hutchinson--a permabear--and Zandi, one of the economists who have been more right than wrong on the jobs picture of late) hardly constitute any sort of indication of "conventional wisdom" or even that that "wisdom" is about to flip. (though i'll allow that the market action of late may indicate that stocks may be ready to break to the downside).

I read this blog daily because I often find it insightful and full of interesting political analysis. This post, however, is really not quite up to snuff. I suppose even a sharp eyed squirrel picks up a rock once in a while.

Posted by: Chris at March 12, 2004 04:35 AM | PERMALINK

um, this rule of thumb has no empirical basis whatsoever, as far as I can tell.

Posted by: praktike at March 12, 2004 05:04 AM | PERMALINK

Don't confuse what Kevin is saying.

There is a big difference between Contrarianism and spinning a bad economy.

Also, right wing news stations giving rosy analyses are also not to be confused with Spinning.

Posted by: Maccabee at March 12, 2004 05:28 AM | PERMALINK

Meant to say Faux News saying things are great in the econbomy is not to be confused with conventional wisdom

Posted by: Maccabee at March 12, 2004 05:29 AM | PERMALINK

We haven't even come close to hitting the bottom of the cycle. When we do, there will be real yelling and crying and screaming.

Posted by: Jnavin at March 12, 2004 05:34 AM | PERMALINK

Japan?

Posted by: andrew at March 12, 2004 05:35 AM | PERMALINK

I made my living as an economic forecaster for years, and the worse mistakes I ever made was agreeing that the consensus was correct.

I am extremely worried about the economy slipping into stagnation. So far this cycle virtually all the gains in productivity have gone to capital and none to labor. Real wage and salary income is still below where it was two years ago at the bottom. How long can the connsumer continue to borrow their way to prosperity.

Moreover, I am seeing a significant slowing of orders for IT equipment and an significant drop in cap9ital goods orders.

I see much more risk on the downside than on the upside.

Posted by: spencer at March 12, 2004 05:38 AM | PERMALINK

When one considers the conventional wisdom that passes for macroeconomics in elementary testbooks,it is hard to understand why the economy is sagging. After all, record deficits (structural, not endogenous), the easiest monetary policy in living memory, and a falling dollar (o.k., that's too recent to get us past the J-curve) would seem to predict strong growth in aggregate demand. Put on top of that the absence of a severe negative supply shock, and you have a mystery, even with high rates of productivity growth.

Investment is lagging (outside residential construction). Why is that? For some reason the yield curve seems to be underestimating the future rise in interest rates that is a necessary consequence of the projected budget deficit. My guess is that businesses making estimates about that yield curve assign higher subjective rates to the future interest rate than operators in the financial market. Why this may be so I am unqualified even to guess. There is just a huge amount of risk out there. If you follow along this line of analysis, it doesn't look like we will becoming out of the doldrums anytime soon.

Posted by: Knut Wicksell at March 12, 2004 06:01 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin- Your theory, when applied to elections and sports seems to have a certain validity, as well.

Groupthink is dangerous, or at the least a very solid indicator that the masses don't have a clue.

Posted by: def rimjob at March 12, 2004 06:02 AM | PERMALINK

I think it has a long way to go before these ideas become conventional wisdom. But then again this stock market is going to be all tapped out in about a year. Then people will realize that we haven't even come close to seeing how bad things can get.

Posted by: Chad Peterson at March 12, 2004 06:02 AM | PERMALINK

If they are right, and Zandi often is, it probably means the end of Bush for sure. The charge that his tax cutting was the wrong policy will be persuasive.

Posted by: BobNJ at March 12, 2004 06:24 AM | PERMALINK

Look to the bond market! Look at where interest rates are. If the economy was really in a sustainable boom, and we were on the verge of big job creation, interest rates (both market-driven and Federal Reserve) would have been going up all these months. But they're not. Think about it.

"When will the clouds all roll away?
When will the good people have their say?
I hope you're still around to see the day
Take a while
Think about it"
(The Yardbirds)

Posted by: TR at March 12, 2004 06:31 AM | PERMALINK

I believe you are somewhat confused on the dicussion of the economics.

It appears to me some economists are looking at present economic dynamics in terms of a structural shift in the economy that for the time being, based on combined high productivity growth and prior over-investment in the 1999-2001 period, is not producing new jobs because firms can meet higher demand with current more productive assets, human and physical.

I also point you to :
Job-loss pessimists should not blame offshoring
By Guy de Jonqui�res
Published: March 11 2004 21:30 |
Last Updated: March 11 2004 21:30
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c;=StoryFT&cid;=1078381707098&p;=1012571727092

It strikes me most comments supra involve ad hoc, just-so-story reasoning rather than a careful analysis of the data.

Posted by: collounsbury at March 12, 2004 06:31 AM | PERMALINK

Even if it is true that the economy is limping back to health, what would be the impact of another terrorist attack?

We are in an extremely precarious economic position right now, thanks to Bush. He has pulled our economic pants down around our ankles...lets hope no one pulls the fire alarm.

Professional economists cannot build unexpected events into their forecasts. But a prudent and conservative leadership should. Unfortunately we have the opposite in a Republican-controlled Washington.

Posted by: Vesicle Trafficker at March 12, 2004 06:52 AM | PERMALINK

Sir Drum.

Truth is often hidden between parentheses. (Which is why we rarely use them.) Like Freudian slips, such utterances lie closer to the heart.

(Then again, maybe these folks are right and we're completely fucked. That's what I think most of the time.)

Posted by: Liz at March 12, 2004 07:18 AM | PERMALINK

Faith based federalism.

Posted by: paper tiger at March 12, 2004 07:49 AM | PERMALINK

To me, the common defining thread between the boom of the 90's and the "jobless recovery" has been strong productivity growth.

I was a never a believer in "the death of the business cycle" or that inflation was no longer a worry. But the continuing, impressive gains in productivity seem to indicate that the economy, even with GDP growth of greater than 4%, could produce relatively few new jobs. At least for the next year, it seems that employers just won't need to hire at a rapid clip.

All of which spells trouble for George W. Bush.

For more, see:

"The Reagan Question: Are You Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?"

http://www.perrspectives.com/articles/art_betteroff01.htm

Posted by: Jon at March 12, 2004 07:51 AM | PERMALINK

By the way, it was the administration ridiculous claims on productivity that destroyed their forecast of 2.6 million new jobs in 2004.

"The Economic Report of the President" assumed productivity gains well below recent years.

Posted by: Jon at March 12, 2004 07:53 AM | PERMALINK

I agree with those that say that Kevin is wrong on what the CW is today.

From today's WSJ:

Despite the weak job growth, the economists also are maintaining their forecasts that the economy will continue to grow at a healthy pace this year, though they think the Federal Reserve will put off thoughts of jacking up interest rates until the second half.

Posted by: GT at March 12, 2004 08:03 AM | PERMALINK

Show me 3 economists, and I'll show you 3 people who don't agree on the economy. If they write for their bread, the odds are they will shift positions in a discussion to remain contrary and confrontational (and thus entertaining).

The productivity gains are killing us. You cut 50% of the work force required to do a task, drop prices 10%, and keep the other 90% for executive pay. That is the problem with our economy.

There is an option the government can do to help fix the problem. Shorten the work week. Drop it to 32, or even 24 hours. recalculate wages to keep the salaries the same. That is what we were supposed to reap from productivity gains. Not better paid executives.

Tax cuts don't help the US economy. That is conventional wisdom that needs bursting. Why? Because almost every penny taken up in taxes GOES RIGHT BACK INTO the US economy. Outside of a pitance of foreign aid and a big chunk that pays foreign debt interest (deficits HURT the american economy), the vast majority is spent on paying government salaries, building projects in america, and paying entitlements to americans. ALL of which immediately is spent within the US economy.

You might be thinking "What about Reagan's Tax cuts, we got several years of prosperity there didn't we?" Briefly. But that wasn't from the tax changes. That was almost all due to the dramatic changes made to the credit industry. Credit laws were enormously relaxed, allowing everyone to borrow like mad. The US deficit shot up, as did almost every private citizen's. That was the source of most of the mid 80's growth. As soon as the credit reach its new equilibrium, the economy tanked again.

Now look at our current economic growth. 50% of it come directly from deficit spending. Seriously, last year when we had a quarter with 250 billion dollars of growth, we had 117 billion in deficit spending. When you figure that a dollar gets spent several times in a quarter, we probably would have had no growth at all if it weren't for debt spending.

To break it down simply for people. Imagine that you earn $2000 a month. YOu get a credit card, and start running up your debt on it at another $2000 a month, making only minimum payments to cover the interest on the card.. Though it looks like your income has doubled based on what you are spending, it isn't real growth. And at some point, the piper will demand payment.

Even if you buy into the supply side drivel that wealthy guys invest their tax cuts, creating new businesses and jobs, that is no longer true. We don't need as many workers to create a new business, and more frequently these days, that money is building businesses in other countries. The old theory was that the new jobs the businesses created started a self reinforcing cycle where the new workers spent their money, creating more new jobs to meet their demand. So, Tax cuts > New Businesses in America > New Workers in America > New businesses in America.

Follow the money now. The government adds more money to the economy by borrowing. That money mostly goes to the wealthy in the form of new tax cuts. The wealthy invest it in companies that are outsourcing manufacturing and technical jobs in other countries. THEIR workers get the new money. They spend it in their own economies. And because they work for less money than americans, they help drive our remaining workers wages down.

We are literally running deficits to build up the work forces and technology and infrastructure of competing countries. We used to spend less than 30 billion dollars in direct foreign aid. I would bet that right now our government financed foreign aid approaches 400 billion.

I liken it to rome. Rome outsourced most of it military power in its final days, allowing it to be militarily conquered by groups it would have stomped a century earlier. We are outsourcing our economic power, and if we don't stop, we are going to be conquered economically by groups we would have stomped a century earlier.

Posted by: TMorgan at March 12, 2004 08:05 AM | PERMALINK

Real estate is doing so well because one can get a fixed loan for 5%, which is much less that the true rate of inflation. This is the first time in my life where I've witnessed the Fed cooking the books on economic data. The reason they've refused to release the PPI data is because we're actually experiencing inflation in the 10% to 15% range. Look at commodities prices (real markets can't lie), the Euro, corn, gold, and especially oil.

Posted by: Allen at March 12, 2004 08:14 AM | PERMALINK

Whats really keeping the economy barely on the edge is people re-fi their houses, take out cash
to buy stuff and hope to survive until the economy
truely recovers.

There are no jobs, period. All of my friends
do not have jobs or could not find jobs that
pay near what they were making. It is
a terrible job market right now.

Until the deficit gets down to manageable level,
the economy wont recover.

Posted by: john at March 12, 2004 08:18 AM | PERMALINK

I think Kevin is parodying John Kerry here. After all, just a week or two ago, Kevin was saying the following:

"If a Democrat wins in 2004, will he be blamed for the almost inevitable economic collapse later this decade? Is there any way to convince Americans that our current economic policy is unsustainable aside from an almost nuclear demonstration of how bad it is?"

http://www.calpundit.com/archives/003371.html

So now, not only is the "economic collapse" not even inevitable, but maybe the economy is going to get better???

Argh! Kerry-esque!

Posted by: Al at March 12, 2004 08:21 AM | PERMALINK

Well, file this one under "Don't know much about geography..." IF the nation had been making a steady investment in education, health care, energy efficiency, etc etc- Kevin would be right. But we haven't been investing in future needs. And our down elevator to hell isn't even in the basement yet.

The current WH gang is entirely happy with an oligarchy model like Saudi Arabia or the traditional South American dictatorship. Every Republican president since Eisenhower has left office in a blizzard of pardons. If nothing else changed this could go on for 30-50 years.

Posted by: serial catowner at March 12, 2004 08:39 AM | PERMALINK

I'm still of the opinion that growth drives employment, rather than the other way around, so that instead of being contrarian on the latter, I'm contrarian on the former.

Currently we're in a "recovery" and annual GDP growth is 6% over the past two quarters and 3.5% over the past year. Most economists are predicting this kind of growth at least through the next year. The stock market has rallied nearly 50% and P/E ratios are back to where they were in 1999. I won't even go into housing prices over the past three years, because you know that already.

So if being contrarian means another slowdown ahead, what does that mean for jobs? I don't want to even think about it.

Posted by: ts at March 12, 2004 08:46 AM | PERMALINK

I agree with those posters who suggest that what is worrisome is not the overall economic picture, but the unusual combination of specific indicators. It is like in the 1970s, when economists were flabbergasted by the new combination of slow growth and inflation. Now we have high profit rates and high productivity, but also high unemployment. This is unusual, and even Bush's cabinet members have remarked upon it. If nothing else, it seems that stock prices are not neccesarily a 'leading indicator'.

Of course, its very easy to predict that, at some point in the future, the economy will get better. But contrarianism is extremely pseudo-scientific. It has no predictive value. Yes, it often happens that things start to turn around right when many people are saying that the bottom has not yet been hit. But how can one take account of the fact that, throughout history, the vast majority of analysts have been bullish on the economy?

Posted by: kokblok at March 12, 2004 08:56 AM | PERMALINK

Dear Economy:
You've caused a lot of people a lot of pain for the past few years, and that's quite frankly sucked. But there's an electoral silver lining in sight. So can you please stay in the dumps for another measly eight months? Thanks.
Sincerely,
RT

Posted by: RT at March 12, 2004 09:01 AM | PERMALINK

Bad Jim: You are right about the computers. I may have made it look like something suddenly changed a few years ago, when of course it has been a continuum over time.

Nevertheless, the system I am using now is far more useful and powerful than systems used sixteen years ago. As just one example, I can do rendered images that used to take standalone mainframes.

Even more than the computer power issue, the internet makes it possible to widely distribute information far more easily than sixteen years ago (remember what you were using to transmit data between locations?) Heck, even a few years ago, we had to cough up a huge load of money for a dedicated T-1 line to get the data rates we needed.

Someone really needs to look at this with numbers and surveys on an industry-by-industry basis.

Yeah, the oil price trend looks bad, but from a free-market standpoint, this is exactly what should be happening with a declining resource. This will drive alternative technologies far more effectively than subsidies.

Ted: If Japan builds a hybrid I want, I'll buy theirs. This is what happened when gas prices were deregulated in the 1970s, but American companies caught up. This hybrid technology is ready to turn the corner, like cell phones did a few years back. And about time. I can't wait to buy an SUV that gets the mileage a VW Beetle did when I was in college.

Other tech that is getting close to that corner includes solar cells and fuel cells for home power generation.

Still think we should be researching and building safe nuclear power systems. This is the one area where France makes us look foolish.

Posted by: tbrosz at March 12, 2004 09:07 AM | PERMALINK

Dear Economy:
You've caused a lot of people a lot of pain for the past few years, and that's quite frankly sucked. But there's an electoral silver lining in sight. So can you please stay in the dumps for another measly eight months? Thanks.

Spoken like a true left-winger! What next: "Dear Iraqi insurgents, you've caused a lot of pain in the past year, but there's an electoral silver lining, so please keep it up"?

Posted by: Al at March 12, 2004 09:17 AM | PERMALINK

I don't take this seriously enough that I'd be willing to put money on it or anything, but when lots of people start to become convinced that an economic cycle has become permanent, that often means the cycle has reached its limit and is about to turn. Is it possible that's what's happening right now?

Sure. But even if it is, the question is whether the widely accepted trend that's about to take a turn is the strong aggregate economic expansion or the weak jobs growth.

Of course, that's been the question since those trends emerged together, since the two are not all that complementary, and each seems like it should undercut the other if sustained.

Posted by: cmdicely at March 12, 2004 09:23 AM | PERMALINK

Kevin:

I think you could find economists right now who would be all over the map on this. Just because you noticed three that agree that things are bad, doesn't mean that prosperity is just around the corner. Until our political leadership in Washington gets real about the mix of spending and revenue we need to return to sound fiscal management, the risks of investing in the American economy will prolong the very pessimism you see hope in. Besides, I tend to go with George Bernard Shaw on this sort of thing: "If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion."

Posted by: coz at March 12, 2004 09:38 AM | PERMALINK

For the most compelling presentation of the economic doom and gloom scenario, read Richard Duncan's book, "The Dollar Crisis". In short, Duncan writes that dollars sent overseas from America's huge trade deficit are boomeranging back to the United States and fueling a housing and equities bubble in America. It is only the capacity of American consumers, businesses and government to take on more and more debt that allows this situation to continue. Once Americans can no longer support any additional debt, and reduce their spending, the bubble will burst and the value of the dollar and the GDP will come tumbling down.

Posted by: Dean S. at March 12, 2004 10:06 AM | PERMALINK

Troy -
I have found only two reasonable arguments "against" LVT.
1. Immediate intsitution of 90% or higher LVT would cause financial collapse, as it would place huge burdens on millions with mortgages leading to massive foreclosures. This rally shouldn't scare anyone, however, since all it means is that phase-in should be incremental over serveral years, and if Georgists ever have any success, this would be the best we could hope for anyway.
2. LVT is a good idea oversold. That is, if implimented incrementally, there is reallyno downside to 95% LVT or government land leasing, it could replace significant taxes on producion, and end land speculation thus increasing production. However, the amount of revenue brought in would not be sufficient to fund government at its current level, much less end poverty as George hoped. However, even here, it may be possible to achieve George's dream by identifying and socializing the FMV of many other types of legally created property besides land ownership that results in rent-taking by the wealthy. I believe George's theories have wide applicability beyond just LVT, although none is propably amenible to such an elegant solution. And again, even if a wider aplicability of his theories would not end poverty, they would at least make the world a better place than it is now.

Posted by: Decnavda at March 12, 2004 10:32 AM | PERMALINK

I had to laugh at the Money Show in Atlantic City. Bernie Shaeffer, one of the better investment gurus, did 50-60 powerpoints.

All of magazine covers, Time, Bizweek, and so on - finally, they'd cottoned on to The Next Big Thing.

And their stock performance. Just about on the SAME DAY the stock would slide! Forever!

Kevin - please shut up! I'm down $11000 in three days already.

Posted by: Peter Quennell at March 12, 2004 10:48 AM | PERMALINK

The economy needs more stimulation-the republicans should lower taxes for the wealthy. It's been working so well thus far-it should be repeated. The rich do not have enough money yet and haven't been convinced with the money that they have now to hire someone.

The worst elements for the economy have all ready happened-state budget problems, extremely high federal deficit, and other occurances so that now the economy must work it's way through all that has happened. If it's not at the worst then it soon will be. Any negative could be catastrophic now since the whole thing is stretched to a breaking point. The GDP numbers must be "adjusted" because they don't track with everything else. How can continued growth occur without increasing employee levels? It just doesn't add up-productivity levels can only go up through some major on-work-site improvements. You have to make something different for your employees to get them to produce more-you can't just say do more or I'll hire someone else. It's more complex than that.

Posted by: MRB at March 12, 2004 10:54 AM | PERMALINK

I dunno, it sounds like that Suntimes article has an axe to grinde against Greenspan specifically. It's a Greenspan bash-fest. Doesn't mean he's wrong on this particular issue (ARMs).

I have an ARM, and I've been worrying about the supposed housing crash that's coming. But when I look at my rate - it just keeps dropping and dropping. It's based on the 1yCMT, which is historically as low as it's been in decades. Supposedly, that's because of the government stopping sales of these bonds back in 1999, or 2000. And my contract says that this value can't go up more than 2 points in a year. Though the spikes in the 1yCMT back in the late 70's and 80's look pretty terrifying. In my area, at least, the housing market is being driven by no shortage of extremely wealthy (by my standards) retirees from LA, who have buttloads of money to spend on a limited supply of houses in a region that's heavily anti-growth, politically speaking. There seems to be no end to the number of people willing to spend half a million on a 1200 sq ft house. And they're all retired people. Baby boomers, I'm guessing. So maybe when the Baby boomers run out, the housing market will crash - but they're not actually due to retire for another 5 years or so, right? So this housing bubble has quite a ways to go. And it's going to absorb a buttload of retirement money from this group of people along the way.

Posted by: Occam's Cuisinart at March 12, 2004 10:56 AM | PERMALINK

Vital reading. VITAL reading.

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2002/IO_09_2002.htm

You know the REAL problem with us Democrats? Congenitally unable to sell short.

This glass half full stuff is costing us a BUNDLE...

Posted by: Peter Quennell at March 12, 2004 11:00 AM | PERMALINK

trbroz;
I can't wait to buy an SUV that gets the mileage a VW Beetle did when I was in college.

You can. It's called the VW Toureg, the one with the V-10 diesel gets 35 mpg highway. Which is precisely what my 1972 VW Karmann Ghia gets with the stock beetle motor.

Only you can't buy the diesel Toureg in California, because the oil companies won't produce the low-sulfur diesel fuel they're required to by the California CARB (EPA). Wait until 2006.

Posted by: Occam's Cuisinart at March 12, 2004 11:26 AM | PERMALINK

And Kerry will magically fix everything how?

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:29 AM | PERMALINK

There will never be an economic recovery of any kind, jobless or no, while oil prices continue to skyrocket.

As the Baker group pointed out in a study for the Cheney Energy Task Force, every recession since the 1940's has been preceded by spikes in oil prices.

For those of us who want the economy to stagnate until exactly November, we can thank OPEC.

Posted by: Metalious at March 12, 2004 11:30 AM | PERMALINK

But it's all Bush's fault because he made the workers work too hard! We need LESS productivity so the companies will hire MORE workers to do things like we did in the OLD days!!!! LLL logic, or lack of it.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:32 AM | PERMALINK

It just doesn't add up-productivity levels can only go up through some major on-work-site improvements.

The simple expedient of making existing employees work more hours works, too, since productivity is measured per worker not per worker-hour. This is particularly effective, in profit terms, if the workers involved are exempt, salaried workers that get no additional compensation for the extra work hours.

Posted by: cmdicely at March 12, 2004 11:33 AM | PERMALINK

Don't worry DUmmies, Kerry being such a ghoul, Bush will win 80% of the EC.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:33 AM | PERMALINK

I guess DUmmies don't consider that the economy consists of many millions of workers not on the official payroll, f.e, temps. Doh!

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:34 AM | PERMALINK

And Kerry will magically fix everything how?

There is no magic fix to what has been broken, but rearranging taxation in a more stimulative way that is short-term revenue neutral (i.e., neither a net cut or increase) may help.

Posted by: cmdicely at March 12, 2004 11:35 AM | PERMALINK

There is no magic fix to what has been broken, but rearranging taxation in a more stimulative way that is short-term revenue neutral (i.e., neither a net cut or increase) may help.

Translated: Kerry will raise taxes on the "wealthy", thus STIMULATING the economy to UNTOLD heights of glory!!!!

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:35 AM | PERMALINK

"And Kerry will magically fix everything how?"

New Campiagn solgan:
Vote for Bush, because you don't know if Kerry will be just as bad.

Posted by: Decnavda at March 12, 2004 11:36 AM | PERMALINK

I guess DUmmies don't consider that the economy consists of many millions of workers not on the official payroll, f.e, temps. Doh!

Temporary workers that are actually working are, in fact, in the official employment statistics (and on the official payroll -- of the temp agency, or of the regular employer itself, if it has an internal temporary pool).

Posted by: cmdicely at March 12, 2004 11:37 AM | PERMALINK

New Campiagn solgan:
Vote for Bush, because you don't know if Kerry will be just as bad.

Actually Kerry is such a lying, sleazy ghoul I have no doubts he would be a 1000x worse then Bush on his worst day. So my vote is easy.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:38 AM | PERMALINK

One downside to Bush having $150 million he must spend in 6 months, I keep getting spammed by Republican party with reams of paper! But for your DUmmies, don't worry I put it in the recycle bin!

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:41 AM | PERMALINK

Translated: Kerry will raise taxes on the "wealthy", thus STIMULATING the economy to UNTOLD heights of glory!!!!

Better translation: Kerry will transfer Bush tax cuts from groups most like to invest it -- either overseas or in a domestic economy already faced with overcapacity -- to those most likely to spend it in the domestic economy, and thus stimulate utilization of capital capacity or, in simple terms, stimulate employment.

This will almost certainly not stimulate the economy to "untold heights of glory". What it is likely to do, however, is improve the demand for labor and, therefore, the jobs outlook. Additionally, by reducing the tax burden on those with lower income, it will also dampen the effect on the underemployed and those suffering under longer than usual transitions between jobs because of the current bad jobs situation until it is resolved, which reduces the pain of the crisis until it is resolved. So it treats both the problem and the symptoms.

Posted by: cmdicely at March 12, 2004 11:42 AM | PERMALINK

Kerry is such a lying, sleazy, duplicitious, awful, slimy, creepy piece of shit, I can't even imagine how he might get elected President. The thought gives me nightmares!

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:42 AM | PERMALINK

Did you know John Kerry served in Vietnam! Doh! I thought it needed repeating for the trillionth time already.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:44 AM | PERMALINK

Better translation: Kerry will transfer Bush tax cuts from groups most like to invest it -- either overseas or in a domestic economy already faced with overcapacity -- to those most likely to spend it in the domestic economy, and thus stimulate utilization of capital capacity or, in simple terms, stimulate employment.

This will almost certainly not stimulate the economy to "untold heights of glory". What it is likely to do, however, is improve the demand for labor and, therefore, the jobs outlook. Additionally, by reducing the tax burden on those with lower income, it will also dampen the effect on the underemployed and those suffering under longer than usual transitions between jobs because of the current bad jobs situation until it is resolved, which reduces the pain of the crisis until it is resolved. So it treats both the problem and the symptoms.

Wrong, the only way you stimulate the economy is by giving incentives to the wealth generators, meaning the businessmen and investor class. Only they create jobs. Consumer spending might hire a few extra workers to work the cash registers, but that's seasonal. Fundemantally to create millions of jobs, you need to stimulate the wealthy class.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:45 AM | PERMALINK

Gunslinger:

get a life

Posted by: coz at March 12, 2004 11:51 AM | PERMALINK

If Kerry is elected we will have 10 9/11s in his 4 years of office. You heard it here first. Kerry will be an utter disaster for America.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:51 AM | PERMALINK

Gunslinger:

get a life

Wow, I thought liberals were ALL supposed to filled with logic and reasoning skills to be used at ALL times against stupid neocons like myself, who would've thunk it?

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:52 AM | PERMALINK

When will so-called conservative Republicans really want to conserve ?? In November, I say.

A conservative Republican friend of mine is for the first time ever going to vote Democratic. He has been out of work for 10 months (tech/telecom casualty) and is totally pissed about the outsourcing, corporate & financial market corruption, the deficit and to a lesser extent, W's flip-flops in foreign policy & social issues.

MESSAGE TO KERRY: It's the JOB MARKET, stupid.

Solution is clearly some demand creation aka "priming the pump".

-- One blogger cited a statistic that 1 billion in gov't infrastructure spending would create 40,000 jobs HERE. Where's the program for existing infrastructure repair (roads, bridges, schools, etc) and investments for the future infrastructure (broadband)?

-- It is ridiculous that in San Diego there is a 7-8 month waiting list for the Toyota Prius hybrid because gas prices there are $2.15/ gal. & W's response is to drill for more oil & resist higher CAFE standards. The Japanese auto makers are already way ahead and likely to kick the asses of GM, Ford & Chrysler just like in the early 70's when gas prices increased dramatically. Where is the investment in alternative energy, pollution control & cleanup technologies that will put people to work AND reduce our dependence on oil ?

Everyone adopt a wavering Republican and promote Conservatism for the 21st Century !!

(end of rant...)

Posted by: longshot at March 12, 2004 11:52 AM | PERMALINK

When will so-called conservative Republicans really want to conserve ?? In November, I say.

A conservative Republican friend of mine is for the first time ever going to vote Democratic. He has been out of work for 10 months (tech/telecom casualty) and is totally pissed about the outsourcing, corporate & financial market corruption, the deficit and to a lesser extent, W's flip-flops in foreign policy & social issues.

Well, all I can say is this "Republican friend" of yours is really stupid because all he's going to get from Kerry is disastrous tax increases to destroy the economy, protectionist measures that destroy the economy, a foreign policy that redefines LIMP WRIST and lip service to illegal aliens in America. I can have no sympathy for any Republican voter who votes emotionally against Bush w/o realizing that they are voting in a profoundly EVIL man, named Kerry.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:55 AM | PERMALINK

-- It is ridiculous that in San Diego there is a 7-8 month waiting list for the Toyota Prius hybrid because gas prices there are $2.15/ gal. & W's response is to drill for more oil & resist higher CAFE standards. The Japanese auto makers are already way ahead and likely to kick the asses of GM, Ford & Chrysler just like in the early 70's when gas prices increased dramatically. Where is the investment in alternative energy, pollution control & cleanup technologies that will put people to work AND reduce our dependence on oil ? Everyone adopt a wavering Republican and promote Conservatism for the 21st Century !!

The answer is all that research is going on, and just because they don't report directly to YOU on all their progress doesn't mean it's not happening. Get your head out of the ground, oil is not going away as the primary fuel source any time soon.

Posted by: The Gunslinger at March 12, 2004 11:57 AM | PERMALINK

Gunslinger-- If your analysis was valid we would be in the greatest boom in US history.

We have experimented with voodoo -- supply side--
economics for 20 years and it has failed miserably. The only thing it did was create a massive federal debt. Since 1980 when we started the experiment the only time the economy has done well was when that econ strategy was rejected.

Posted by: spencer at March 12, 2004 12:21 PM | PERMALINK

Doug/Gunslinger, please limit yourself to ONE cup of coffee when watching the Faux News Channel. Boundless energy and gross misinformation is not a pretty combination.

I like mandatory limits limits on executive compensation, too. Say, you can't earn more than 30X your lowest paid employee. It would make those 20 cent an hour wages a lot less appealling.

I also would like a corperate citizenship rule, where if your company's labor time is less than 50% done in the US, you can no longer be a US corporation. Might stop these guys from registering all their transports and tankers, and banks out of lawless third world nations, too.

Posted by: TMorgan at March 12, 2004 12:29 PM | PERMALINK

Huge tax decreases for the wealth does not create jobs or improve the overall economy-it never has and never will. If Kerry does get elected he should immediately raise taxes for the wealthy back to where they were pre-bush. These "facts" gunslinger speaks of are not factual-it's repub bullshit. The same drivel they always say. If tax cuts for the wealthy stimulate the economy when is it going to happen-it didn't happen when Reagan did it and if it were going to happen now it should do so right now? The stimulus (if there was one) should be kicking in right now. During Clinton taxes were raised radically (so said the repubs) and the economy grew for 6 years. Why doesn't these alleged facts correspond to actual life experiences? Because they are bullshit.

Posted by: MRB at March 12, 2004 12:29 PM | PERMALINK

Gunslinger -- you really don't get it, do you ?? My friend will cancel YOUR vote in November rather than mine. He's an ex-Marine, well-traveled, well-educated and not at all as fearful of the the rest of the world and their people as you seem to be.

As for your second comment, I DO know R&D; has been underway in US companies for these new technologies. But you DO know Toyota just passed Ford in auto sales don't you ? You don't really believe gas prices are going back down to $1.00/gal do you ?

Rather than yesterday's policies that subsidize today's doomed technologies, what's needed is stimulus to drive future solutions from the technology & concept stages to development, introduction & growth stages.

I'm proud & blessed to be an American and would rather our citizens get paychecks from US companies than non-US companies. Maybe that's old-fashioned since in many ways today's global corporations transcend the traditional nation-states (a whole 'nother rant).

Regardless, we are still behind many of our competitors, and I just don't see W with the vision, character, judgement & skill to lead the USA in the 21st century.

Posted by: longshot at March 12, 2004 12:44 PM | PERMALINK

tbrosz - very intelligent comments, thanks.

Posted by: DBL at March 12, 2004 12:49 PM | PERMALINK

TMorgan - The french tried your solution a few years back, shortening the work week, with the idea of spreading the work around more workers. The results were predictable, companies became even more reluctant to hire. I believe the french are now preparing to undo this change.

Posted by: DBL at March 12, 2004 12:53 PM | PERMALINK

Blogger's personal job situation improving? Voila: national economy improving. Always worked for me too.

Posted by: jmaynard at March 12, 2004 12:57 PM | PERMALINK

Longshot-you are so right on. America has tremendous strengths in cleverness, inventiveness, intelligence and when those powers are directed into research we can do anything. The repubs don't really believe this-there are just to many blacks, hispanics, orientals to blame and despise to consider that we need every working, thinking person active in our success and we can do anything. Instead, do to who knows what, we'll now let someone elso do all the stem cell research and instead stand around and lie to each other about why the economy doesn't provide jobs and how we could let a moron liar be in charge of our country. The potential that we could have-what a waste. And soon we won't have any money left for research.

Posted by: MRB at March 12, 2004 12:57 PM | PERMALINK

" oil is not going away as the primary fuel source any time soon."

Well, that depends on your definition of soon. When the price of oil gets up to $10-20 a gallon (I can hear Gunlicker screaming that's impossible...) people are going to look for other ways of powering their cars. Or we'll all end up with Flintstone cars, "...powered by Flintstone feet!"

Hybrids are sounding good. The technical problems with hydrogen fuel cells make them seem unlikely to take off anytime soon.

Another possibility, one that deserves much more attention than it deserves, is flywheel technology. The problem is that it sounds so stupid -- a flywheel is basically a heavy, rapidly spinning top in a box that can be tapped for energy when needed, sort of like those toy cars you played with as a kid by Vrummm-Vrumming them on the ground until they took off. This is very feasible technology, though. Modern industrial flywheels can store huge amounts of energy.

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Posted by: Ignaro at March 12, 2004 03:10 PM | PERMALINK

"The french tried your solution a few years back, shortening the work week, with the idea of spreading the work around more workers. The results were predictable, companies became even more reluctant to hire. I believe the french are now preparing to undo this change."

You would be believing wrongly. They went to a 35 hour work week. France's unemployment has fallen 33% since this was implemented. It is as low as the real unemployment figures in the US (when you add back in the people no longer recieving benefits but still unemployed)

There are a lot of problems with the french system, the least of which is all the exemptions. You also have the fact that France is not nearly as computerized and automated as the US, and still has a significant amount of its food coming from family farms. In spite of this, French productivity is still pretty high, especially if you compare it per hour worked instead of per worker. Also, you do not have the vast wealth inequity between worker and owner/investor in france as you do in the US, so there was never as much slack to take up.

I'm not talking at all about following the French model, though. We can do it much better. The french model has done fairly well. We can surely do better than France.

Posted by: TMorgan at March 12, 2004 03:47 PM | PERMALINK

TMorgan:

Are you implying that that US unemployment is roughly the same as French?

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Occam's Cusineart: "the VW Toureg, the one with the V-10 diesel gets 35 mpg highway. Which is precisely what my 1972 VW Karmann Ghia gets with the stock beetle motor."

Not so sure about that one. I think it's 17/23 city/highway. And I saw something in the LA Times about how the Toureg is one of the LEAST cleanest burning cars...
http://autos.yahoo.com/newcars/d/volkswagen04touareg/model_overview.html?refsrc=autos/2003

Wait for the 2005 Toyota Highlander Hybrid...

Posted by: Paul at March 12, 2004 04:24 PM | PERMALINK

Ok, first off, I mistated the unemployment changes. I was in a hurry and shouldn't even try to read french anymore. The rate of increase has been 33% less. The overall rate is higher, though lower than projected. There is a lot of debate in france about whether the Chirac government has gutted the other unemployment measures, and I'm not getting into it. The politics of our own country are bad enough.

US unemployment IS roughly the same as the french. On paper the US is around 5.7%. France is around 9.6% But, the US does not count people unemployed and not recieving benefits or no longer trying to find work. It also doesn't count new workers graduating who haven't had a chance to get their first job yet. This number is enourmous, with almost a full percent of the potential labor force running out of benefits since hte year's beginning. Estimates vary wildly for what this number really is, because it is hard to track. It easily gets to 8%. if you include people who were well paid professionals now working part time for sub-poverty wages, you easily get to 12%.

So yes, our real unemployment rate is roughly the same as the french.

Last month I flew into Newark. No I'm not looking for sympathy here :) But every person at the car rental counter was a recent college graduate. The girl driving me on the shuttle was a dual major communications/journalism graduate who had been offered a job prior to graduation, then had it rescinded. She felt lucky to have the shuttle job, since many of here graduating friends didn't have one and had moved back in with mom.

These people don't get counted at all for the official unemployment.

Posted by: TMorgan at March 12, 2004 04:45 PM | PERMALINK

The Buffet test

Just look at Warren Buffet .. in late 60s during the stock market boom he got out of market and dissolved his investment group (keeping only Bershire stock).
In the 70s when Business Week had a cover story entired "the end of equities" Buffet was buying..
Same thing happen in the 80s

Now Buffet is totally out of equities (except for his core holdings which he admits he should have gotten out of a couple of years ago) and he is SHORE US currency.

When Buffet starts to buy again then I will know the market (and economy ) are going to get better.

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