| Internal Bush-Cheney campaign polling shows that
the president is beating Sen. John Kerry in three states that Al
Gore carried in 2000, campaign staff members told GOP operatives
this week.
The recent shift in polling data, buttressed by several recent public
polls, has pleasantly surprised Bush campaign officials and calmed
the nerves of antsy Republicans who had become frustrated and alarmed
by the president’s lackluster numbers this summer. |
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File photo |
| President Bush |
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At high-profile meetings with GOP operatives
Sunday, Bush-Cheney campaign representatives said Kerry has been
damaged by the headline-grabbing Swift boat ads.
At a briefing yesterday, however, Bush campaign adviser Matthew
Dowd said Kerry’s poll numbers were declining even before
the Swift boat controversy intensified.
After analyzing the new internal findings, the Bush team is “cautiously
optimistic” that the president will beat Kerry in November,
a source said.
GOP strategists say the Bush-Kerry race will go down to the wire
but privately believe Bush could pull away from Kerry over the next
month. Dowd maintained yesterday that the race would remain tightly
contested.
Bush advisers told Republican officials working at the convention
that the president is beating Kerry in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and
even Michigan. Those are key battleground states that some political
observers say Kerry must win if he is to defeat Bush. Gore won Pennsylvania
by four points, Michigan by five and Wisconsin by less than one.
Bush’s lead in those states is within the margin of error
of the GOP polls, but strategists note that earlier internal polls
had Kerry winning in them.
A recent Gallup poll had the Pennsylvania race tied and a Survey
USA poll has Kerry up by three points in Michigan. A Los Angeles
Times poll had the president up four points in Wisconsin.
Bush is also faring better in Florida. In a new poll conducted by
Washington polling firms Schoth & Associates and the Polling
Co., Bush attracted 48 percent to Kerry’s 46 percent in the
Sunshine State.
GOP strategists believe that winning Michigan and Pennsylvania will
be challenging but are confident about Wisconsin.
“We’re going to win Wisconsin,” a senior GOP operative
said, adding that Democratic stronghold Minnesota is also in play.
Republican strategists are worried about Ohio but discount the theory
that the state is a must win, claiming that a Bush loss in Ohio
could be offset by a victory in Pennsylvania.
“We’re in a unique presidential election that I don’t
think anybody has ever been before, which is there is no natural
trend today that tells you here’s what’s going to happen
or, here’s who’s going to win and here’s who’s
going to lose,” Dowd said.
Public polls have also delivered the Bush-Cheney ticket good news.
A new Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll of voters in battleground states,
showed the president’s approval rate has risen to 50 percent,
up three points from early August.
Cheney’s approval rating has also improved. In early August,
40 percent of those polled said they had a favorable impression
of Cheney, with 46 percent having an unfavorable view of him. The
new poll puts Cheney’s favorability at 43 percent, with 42
percent unfavorable.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll posted online last
night revealed that Bush has reclaimed his advantage on being viewed
as more honest and trustworthy than Kerry. Bush also has a 10-point
lead in the category of being better qualified to serve as commander
in chief, according to the poll.
The Swift boat advertisements attacking Kerry’s war record
and his claims about it have clearly helped Bush. The most recent
Los Angeles Times poll showed that the president leads
Kerry 46 percent to 39 percent on the question of the candidates’
honesty and integrity. Last month, Bush and Kerry were tied in that
area.
Electoral-vote.com, which uses recent state polls to predict the
presidential election, has Kerry winning 249 electoral college votes,
Bush 232, with the balance of them in states deemed to be tied.
Earlier this month, the site had Kerry’s electoral count at
more than 300.
Angie Hu contributed to this report.
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