August 31, 2004
Charlie Cook looks at the recent polls: "It really is pretty amazing how fast the conventional wisdom can change."
Here are the latest state polls:
- Florida: Bush 48%, Kerry 44% (Strategic Vision)
- Ohio: Bush 48%, Kerry 42% (Strategic Vision)
- Georgia: Bush 55%, Kerry 36% (Strategic Vision)
- Wisconsin: Bush 48%, Kerry 46% (Strategic Vision)
- Washington: Kerry 50%, Bush 44% (Moore Information)
Update:
- Pennsylvania: Bush 47%, Kerry 45% (Strategic Vision)
- Michigan: Kerry 45%, Bush 42% (Strategic Vision)
- Iowa: Bush 47%, Kerry 46% (Strategic Vision)
- Minnesota: Kerry 47%, Bush 46% (Strategic Vision)
Editor's Note: Strategic Vision normally does work for Republican clients, but their previous polls have been generally in line with other non-partisan polls.
"Keenly aware that George Bush and Dick Cheney will never run again, a slew of Republicans are using the convention to start angling for the party's 2008 nomination,"
Knight Ridder reports.
The GOP convention "offers too tempting an opportunity for early posturing, what with all the party's power brokers in one place. While television cameras focus largely on the convention hall, would-be candidates are meeting with influential insiders at receptions and parties from breakfast until the wee hours."
The
Quad City Times notes Sen. Chuck Hagel (R-NE), former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and New York Gov. George Pataki are all scheduled to meet with the Iowa delegation this week.
NY1 News reports Giuliani told the Iowa delegation today he is considering a run for the White House in 2008.
Amazon.com opened its
Great Political Debate Store. "As we head toward an election of far-reaching significance, we've rounded up a number of titles on the controversial issues that will determine America's course. Read our
exclusive interviews, browse through our lists, and be sure to cast your vote."
CNN reports former Secretary of State James Baker will lead President Bush's debate preparation team. Sen. John Kerry picked
his team earlier this month.
"As the Bush campaign commands an exquisitely directed convention, the faltering Kerry campaign might be on the verge of a major shake-up," the
Wall Street Journal's Al Hunt reports. Aides says Kerry is "bouncing off the walls" in frustration.
The campaign "command structure" is "often frozen -- or at least tempered -- by too many chefs, a too-heavy reliance on polls or focus groups and an aversion to risks. As a result, the message often is muddled and the reaction to hard-hitting attacks from Republicans often is slow and unconvincing."
"A few very well-connected Democrats report something will occur in the next few days. One person who might assume more control is Joe Lockhart, a former press secretary to Bill Clinton and a respected public-relations figure, but one who has almost no experience in the high-stakes world of presidential campaigns. Another possibility: veteran Democratic politico John Sasso, currently at the Democratic National Committee."
Update: The
National Journal reports Kerry's campaign today "announced the official addition of several 'key new staff' for the race's final weeks. Joe Lockhart joins as a senior adviser, while Joel Johnson will be director of rapid response; other additions include Lori Denham, Karen Finney, Dr. Susan Rice and former Congressman Mel Levine. Rumor has it that the recent Swift Boat skirmishes are at least part of the reason behind the hires."
Update II:
Chuck Todd notes Marla Romash, spokeswoman for Teresa Heinz Kerry, is quitting the Kerry campaign for personal reasons.
Update III:
Chuck Todd and
CBS News have more on the possible shakeup.
After talking to two "Republican powers,"
Dan Rather gives us the heads up: "Keep your eyes and ears open for Mitt Romney's convention speech Wednesday night."
"Whatever it is, it 'may be the surprise of the convention,' one of the Republican honchos added."
Meanwhile, the
Providence Journal runs an interesting piece on Romney, his father and his political aspirations.
"The blogger who triggered yesterday’s
resignation of Rep. Ed Schrock (R-VA) by spreading rumors that he is gay promised 'there’s more to come,'"
The Hill reports.
The blog,
Blog Active, says the next target will be a member of Congress or highly-placed Bush administration official.
The
Boston Globe profiles Ralph Reed, who is "not only a key architect of the Bush-Cheney organization, he is among the Republicans who in recent years have employed traditionally Democratic tools to make the GOP competitive on the ground in elections."
"Technically, Reed is a volunteer chairman of the Bush-Cheney campaign in Florida and four other southern states. But his role is much broader, comparable to that of his Democratic counterpart, Michael Whouley, the Massachusetts operative who served as organizational troubleshooter in the Democratic presidential campaigns of Bill Clinton, Al Gore, and, this year, John F. Kerry."
James Carville has a new book out -- and it can be read in just five minutes.
Lu and the Swamp Ghost is the Democratic consultant's first children's book. The story portrays Carville's mother as a little girl who feeds a hungry swamp creature.
The
Washington Times notes "the book comes packaged with a CD read by Mr. Carville in his distinctive voice" to "make sure children hear the story with the correct inflections."
Lu and the Swamp Ghost
Buy from Amazon.com for just $12.57
The
Christian Science Monitor list the top ten surprises at the Republican National Convention, despite the GOP's "clever plan to stifle anger, resentment, excitement, or indeed any emotion whatsoever through what can only be described as a careful plan to lull the electorate into sufficient somnolence to allow the incumbent to slide to victory."
Ralph Nader "won't be on Missouri's ballot in November, after failing to appeal a ruling by the secretary of state" by Friday, the
AP reports.
"Nader still could submit paperwork to qualify as a valid write-in candidate. The deadline for that is Oct. 22, but even then, people would have to add him to their ballots to vote for him."
Chris Bowers provides a useful update of Nader's effort to get on state ballots thus far.
Former President George H.W. Bush "fanned doubts" about Sen. John Kerry's Vietnam War record, the
New York Times reports. In a television interview, Bush did not specifically challenge Kerry's record "but rather, with the subtlety of a seasoned pro, parried questions in a way to gently bat the controversy aloft."
Sen. John McCain's mention of filmmaker Michael Moore last night was a publicist's dream. The
New York Daily News notes the senator "unleashed the big guns" on Moore, "unleashing pent-up partisan fury on the Bush-bashing filmmaker as he sat in the hall."
Moore gained press credentials to the Garden by writing a piece for
USA Today this morning in which he argues that many people who say they're Republican but "are quite liberal and not in sync with the Republicans who run the country."
Editor and Publisher quotes Moore: "I can't believe they'd mention the film and help the box office."
Keith Olberman: "Michael Moore’s big smile tonight wasn’t defensive, nor pasted on, nor panicky. He shouldn’t have just smiled, he should’ve sent John McCain a check."
Meanwhile, the
Houston Chronicle profiles a convention delegate also named Michael Moore.
Fahrenheit 9/11
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August 30, 2004
Despite earlier
comments, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "won't put to bed the idea of a presidential run in 2008," the
Los Angeles Times reports.
"McCain's continuing interest in the presidency partly helps explain, according to people familiar with his thinking, why he has increasingly fallen into the embrace of Bush, a man he held in none-too-shrouded contempt after their primary election showdown in 2000."
The
New York Times interviewed the senator's mother: "I think he's working for the Republican Party and I don't know that Bush has anything to do with it or doesn't have anything to do with it."
"To counter Republican attacks, the political-action wing of MoveOn.org launched a $3.2 million convention-week television-ad blitz yesterday -- its largest buy to date," the
Wall Street Journal reports. "The ads, featuring former Bush supporters who have turned against the president, will run on cable TV in Florida, Ohio and seven other battleground states."
Meanwhile, another ad from the swift boat veterans attacking Sen. John Kerry "takes aim at the Democratic candidate's antiwar activism and will appear through Friday in about half of Florida and in Nashville, Tenn. The Nashville buy, starting tomorrow, will coincide with Sen. Kerry's speech there to the American Legion."
Rep. Rodney Alexander (R-LA) "may run for re-election as a Republican and no new candidates will be able to join the race against him, a state appeals court said," the
Lafayette Advertiser reports.
The decision reversed a
lower court ruling last week.
Meanwhile, the
New Orleans Times-Picayune says that "contrary to speculation," Alexander "won no assurances from the Republican leadership in the House of Representatives that he will get a powerhouse committee assignment, such as appropriations, if he wins re-election."
Rep. Edward Schrock (R-VA) "abruptly announced Monday that he will not seek a third term in Congress, citing unspecified allegations 'that have called into question my ability' to serve," the
AP reports.
Schrock's statement "said he would not comment further on his decision, nor did he comment specifically on the allegations he is facing."
Kos says a blog --
Blogactive -- brought down the congressman by claiming he was gay.
Update: The
Virginia Pilot notes "no mainstream newspapers, television stations or Web sites published the allegations. As the rumors continued to build, local Republicans began preparing for the worst."
Update II:
Michael D has posted links to the audio tapes and much more.
Ralph Nader "has lost his attempt to get on the November ballot in Pennsylvania," the
Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
"A three-judge panel said Nader violated state law by trying to run as an independent here, while in Michigan filing to run on the Reform Party ticket."
Andrea Mitchell makes an interesting observation: "The rules change by the minute, but no one knows why. The Garden, home to three previous conventions I've covered (in '76, '80 and '92) resembles no event, political or otherwise, any of us have ever seen. New York is an armed camp. Street closures change by the minute. But inside the hermetically sealed convention, you'd never know what is happening on the streets."
The Georgia Democratic Party launched a
web video challenging the credibility of the state's highest ranking elected Democrat, retiring Sen. Zell Miller.
According to a
Zogby Interactive poll, President Bush is favored by a stunning 25% over Sen. John Kerry (35%-10%) among undecided likely voters.
Update: The latest
Washington Post/ABC News poll shows a statistical dead heat, with Bush and Kerry tied at 48% among likely voters.
Here are the latest state polls:
- Florida: Bush 48%, Kerry 46% (Miami Herald)
- Pennsylvania: Bush 48%, Kerry 47% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)
- Wisconsin: Bush 50%, Kerry 47% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)
- Iowa: Kerry 51%, Bush 46% (CNN/USA Today/Gallup)
- Texas: Bush 57%, Kerry 33% (Scripps Howard)
Meanwhile, the
Electoral Vote Predictor finds "neither candidate has the required 270 votes in the electoral college because three states are now tied."
"A year ago, it was still possible to debate whether the phenomenon of Bush hating had taken on the virulent dimensions of Clinton loathing in the 1990's," the
New York Times reports. "On the eve of the 2004 Republican National Convention in New York City, there's no longer any argument. By any measure, Bush bashing is bigger."
"The right's Clinton hating was largely personality-driven... Bush's opponents, by comparison, despise the substance of his presidency... But they often admit that they, well, kinda like the guy personally."
Rolling Stone has a must-read profile of filmmaker Michael Moore which includes this warning for Sen. John Kerry: "It doesn't do me any good to have him embrace me, because if he's elected, my camera will be on him." (Only an excerpt of the article is online.)
Fahrenheit 9/11
Buy from Amazon.com for just $18.82
"Although he
resigned amid controversy as outside counsel to the Bush campaign, Ben Ginsberg will still party with his party here in New York this week,"
Roll Call's
Heard on the Hill reports. "In fact, he remains the headline 'special host' of the lavish late-night bash that his law firm, Patton Boggs, is throwing for the Bush-Cheney ’04 team on the final night of the convention at ultra schwanky Avalon on Sixth Avenue."
Meanwhile,
Andrew Sullivan notes the controversy about whether the Bush campaign was behind the swift boat attack ads may have been put to rest by President Bush himself:
I loved Bush's comment yesterday about the smear-ad: "I can understand why Senator Kerry is upset with us. I wasn't so pleased with the ads that were run about me. And my call is get rid of them all, now."
"Us"?? I thought Bush had nothing to do with it.
California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), "who once ridiculed politicians" in Sacramento "for taking 'dirty money' and proclaimed that he didn't need to take 'any money from anyone,' is immersed in what could prove to be the most aggressive fundraising sprint by a California governor," the
Los Angeles Times reports.
"Even before the current fundraising blitz began three weeks ago, Schwarzenegger had taken in about $13 million this year."
However, Schwarzenegger's distinction "is that the money is going not to advance narrow campaign purposes, but to fight for a broader policy agenda" by taking sides on ballot initiatives.
"For the first time, a nationwide list of registered voters has been cross-referenced with multiple lists of e-mail addresses collected from magazine subscribers, catalogue shoppers, online poll participants and the like," the
Washington Post reports.
"The result is that legislators, candidates for office and interest groups can buy more than 25 million e-mail addresses of registered voters and contact them at will."
Editor's Note: For those looking for a very elegant way to combat spam, I highly recommend
Cloudmark Spamnet. Another good program is
Norton Anti-Spam.
In the continuing saga called the Illinois Senate campaign,
ArchPundit point us to the latest
outburst from Republican Alan Keyes. It's well worth watching.
USA Today notes that Democrats "
assigned to counter the Republican convention here have already accomplished the easy part of their job -- coming up with a slogan: Mission Not Accomplished."
New York magazine offers quiz: "Can you tell at a glance if someone’s a Republican or a Democrat?"
The
New York Times has a complete list of tonight's speakers and events. Adam Nagourney has an
interactive preview.
A
press release gives excerpts from speeches not yet delivered.
David Shuster says convention protesters yesterday were 99.9% peaceful. The
New York Times notes the protests "went off without major violence despite fears of explosive clashes with the biggest security force ever assembled in New York."
In an interview with
Time magazine, President Bush declared the war in Iraq a "catastrophic success."
Sen. John Edwards responds in the
Washington Post: "I, like most Americans, have no idea what that means."
